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Emerging Vehicle and Fuel Technologies
For Clean, Efficient Transportation
Clean Transportation Technologies & Solutions SM
Bill Van AmburgSenior Vice President
Mobility 2030 – San Francisco, CAAugust 18, 2009
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Mission Statement
CALSTART is a unique national, non-profit, member-supported organization dedicated to the growth of an advanced transportation technologies industry that will:
• Create high-quality jobs;• Clean the air;• Reduce dependence on foreign oil; and• Prevent global warming
Copyright CALSTART 2009
CALSTART: A Strategic Broker for Advanced Transportation
National and International in Project Areas
2009130+ Worldwide Member
Network
4 Offices in US
Four focus areas:Tech CommercializationFleet, Port ConsultingIndustry ServicesPolicy Development
Copyright CALSTART 2009
CALSTART Has 130+ Member/ Participants (partial list)
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Find Combination Strategies
Air QualityAir Quality
ClimateClimate ChangeChangeEnergy SecurityEnergy Security
We must find solutions that
address all three
competing needs
Integrated Solutions Needed
There is no one “Silver Bullet” solution
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Agenda
• Trends & Drivers of Change in Transportation– The Fuel, Emissions and Climate
Challenge – and Opportunity
• Some Observations Based on Where Change is Heading
• Summary
Copyright CALSTART 2009
2030: We Can’t Get There in Vehicles
• 2030 requires more than JUST more- efficient cars & trucks and lower carbon fuels
• 2030 requires cleaner, more efficient transportation design and systems – mobility for people, efficient transport for goods
• 2030 is the half way point of 40 years of significant tech, fuel and transportation design change needed to save the planet
California Secure Transportation Energy Partnership (CalSTEP) Action Plan
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Sources of GHG
• Transportation is biggest GHG source in CA, but it is also one third of all US emissions
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Magnitude of California’s Challenge to 2020 and Beyond
80% Reduction ~341 MMT CO2e
ARB Emissions Inventory
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 2000 2004 2020 2050
Year
Mil
lio
n M
etr
ic T
on
s
(CO
2 E
qu
iva
len
t)
1990 Emission Baseline
~173 MMT CO2e Reduction
80% Reduction ~341 MMT CO2e
15% above 1990
levels today
Copyright CALSTART 2009
International Energy Agency: 6 New Saudis Needed by 2030
Copyright CALSTART 2009
EPA’s Light Duty GHG Standard Average of 250 g CO2/mile by 2016
•Standards have same endpoint as CA Pavley standards.
•5% annual rate of improvement
•Still higher than limits in many other developed countries.
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Reductions Beyond Pavley Needed in Ground Transportation
Pavley bill (AB 1493 in 2002)
helps reduce rate of growth
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GH
G M
MT
(CO
2 e)
2050 GHG Goal 80% Below 1990
Pavley Reductions
Alternative Fuel Reductions
AB 32 Allowable GHG Emissions
2050 GHG Emissions Expected - IEPR
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Possible Drivers of Truck Fuel Efficiency: Carbon
MPG Needed to Reduce Carbon
35.3
15.7
9.77.16
1990 1990-27% 1990-55% 1990-80%
Carbon Reduction Level
MP
G
Cutting carbon means reducing fuel burn and using lower carbon fuels.
This chart illustrates how Class 8 fuel efficiency might need to improve if it had to tackle carbon reduction alone.
TodayToday 2020 2030 2020 2030 2040 2040 20502050
Discussion estimates only
Need fuels and efficiency combined
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Observation: Need Combination Strategies
• High efficiency vehicles combined with low carbon fuels – eventually this combination becomes the norm– Hybrid/biofuel vehicles– Plug-in hybrid/biofuel– Diesel/high efficiency engine/hybrid/biofuel– Extended range EV/biofuel
Copyright CALSTART 2009
The Nation’s Most Advanced Biofuel Hybrid Vehicle
• Florida Power & Light (FP&L) fuels this hybrid electric truck on B30 (30% biodiesel) resulting in approximately 70% less oil used compared to conventional truck
• Biofuels + Hybrids = Real Synergy (hybrid technology will maximize use of biofuels which will be limited by amount of acreage)
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Significant Growth in Hybrid Trucks
• Every major truck and bus manufacturer in North America is now selling one or more hybrid products
• Hydraulic hybrid and hybrid electric technology gaining strength
36 Trucks Took Part in HTUF Conference Ride and Drive – South Bend, IN October 2008
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Wal-Mart Class 8 Demo
• ArvinMeritor – Navistar deliver unique dual-mode hybrid design for testing
• Electric drive at lower speeds (up to 48 mph), blended mode at higher speeds
• Can greatly reduce fuel use, cut idle and give zero emission at ports, urban driving
• Wal-Mart testing this truck and several Peterbilt-Eaton trucks in line-haul and regional heavy haul applications
• Wal-Mart committed to doubling its fleet fuel efficiency by 2015
•
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Freightliner Innovation Truck
• Advanced aerodynamics• Predictive cruise control• Light weight materials• Variable chassis height• Energy storage for overnight
idle reduction
• Recent study shows technology available today to cut truck fuel consumption 50% (ICCT/NESCCAFF)
Copyright CALSTART 2009
VW Shows Turbo/Super Charged CNG Concept Vehicle
• Touran TSI EcoFuel debuts at Geneva Motor Show– Features dual charging via
turbocharger and supercharger– When paired with a standard
6-speed transmission, fuel consumption is 4.8 kilograms of natural gas per 100 kilometers
– CO2 is approximately 129g/km• Meets Euro-5 standards
– Has four natural gas tanks and an auxiliary gasoline tank
• Range of 370 kms using natural gas fuel only, and a maximum range of 520 kms
Photo: Media.Photobucket.com
CALSTART NewsNotes, 03/03/09
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Battery Electric Vehicles Re-Emerging as Real Option
Mitsubishi IMiEVNissan Leaf
Daimler Electric Smart
Chevy Volt E-REV Tesla Roadster
Electric Mini
Chrysler “Peapod” & Others?
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Smith Building More Electric Trucks in US; Modec Teaming with Navistar
• Smith Electric Vehicles launches new production facility in US in Kansas City region– Unveils US version of the Newton,
which has a top speed of 50, range of over 100 miles and a payload capacity of up to 16,280 lbs
– Unveils first all-electric utility bucket truck based on Newton at in partnership with Altec, PG&E
– Will also build electric Ford Transit Connect vehicle in Kansas City
• Modec and Navistar win grant from DOE to build electric delivery trucks in US
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Toyota vs. GM vs. Ford: Working on Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles
• Toyota Motor Company is testing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, first Japanese automaker to research and road test the technology
• General Motors has taken the lead in developing rechargeable vehicles – “Volt” pre-production car unveiled Sept 08; possible for 2010
• GM may have Saturn Vue PHEV by late 2009
• Ford in PHEV testing partnership with Southern California Edison
• Ford continues to study a PHEV concept “Extend,” seeks trademark
Ford PHEV Escape
Copyright CALSTART 2009
The Fuel Landscape is Changing
• Broader look at full impacts on well-to-wheels basis underway, including indirect, food competition and land use impacts
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab, UC Berkeley
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Graphical Depiction of Indirect Emissions
Source: Alex Farrell, UC Berkeley
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Where Are Biofuels Headed?
• Still very much an active debate• Today’s biofuels are stepping stones to next
generation fuels and feedstocks – we believe you must start somewhere to make progress!
• Biofuels in future that do not compete with food and wilderness for fertile land can avoid indirect GHG emissions (Alex Farrell, UC Berkeley Energy & Resources Group)– Wastes and residues, agriculture seasonal mix,
wastelands crops – more R&D
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Low Carbon Fuel Standards Are Emerging
Source: 3/5/09 CARB Draft LCFS Rule
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Observation: Closer Link Between Fuel and Region/Person
• More Grid Connection– Smart timing, pricing systems– Vehicles contribute to system
• Waste-stream fuels– MSW, food/ag production, waste water
• Local fuel production
Waste Syngas or Biogas
Biomethane
Alcohol fuels
Electricity production
Standard fuelsHydrogen
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Power Grid Changing
•“Smart Grid”• Integrating Distributed Generation• Increasing generation from renewables
1
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Vehicle to Grid- Integration of Transportation and Power Grid
Arrows indicate direction of power flow
(Kempton &Tomic, JPS, 2005) 2
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Green-Gas Principle – Can Make “Natural Gas” Even Greener
Biogas
Natural gas
Residential housing
Industries
Filling stations
Swedish officials believe biomethane can meet 20% of future transportation
needs
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Swedish Biomethane Vehicles
Copyright CALSTART 2009
First Trucks to Run on Biomethane In California
• In 2009 Hilarides Dairy powers trucks on renewable biomethane from dairy operation
• Has potential to generate 650 diesel gallon equivalents (DGEs) from farm
• CALSTART is preparing a federal stimulus and AB 118 proposal to jump-start the CA biomethane industry
CBG Truck In Tulare
Tulare Covered Lagoon Producing biogas
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Observation: Transportation Management Systems Needed, Will Grow
• Hardware and Software for consumer-level system maintenance, control
• Timing, routing, pricing of optimal choices for given need
• Consumers provided with choices based on “best” choices– Cost/emissions, congestion (infrastructure
availability)
• Personal car one of choices but not only
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Vehicles & Electric Grid
• Two large sectors that can be integrated
• Smart interaction between vehicle fleet, grid and intermittent renewable
• Large, low-cost storage for renewables
• Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) power as bridging technology
7
Copyright CALSTART 2009
V2G Provides New Source of Distributed Generation
•50% of cars as EDVs increase electric load ?100 Million carsx 15,000 Miles per year / 4.8 Miles per kWh= 312 Billion kWh per year at off-peak times= 7 % of 2020 total national load
•With V2G, these EDVs also provide a huge power resource:100 M cars x 15 kW x 0.5 avail. = 750 GW of DG> 70% of 2020 national electric power capacity!
Conclusion: Even 50% of cars as EDV, IF they have V2G, probably REDUCE grid infrastructure requirements
6
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Observation: Vehicle Ownership Models Likely to Change
• Will we remain wedded to the vehicle itself – or to the “service” provided by the vehicle?
• Cost of fuel, vehicle, insurance may change the relationship of people to vehicles– Vehicles may be offered as part of service
agreement rather than simple sales• Option: own vehicle, lease energy as service (battery lease)• Option: vehicle provided as part of energy agreement (cell
phone and solar panel model)• Option: vehicle 1 or 2 part of shared asset or service
agreement (car sharing or custom rental)
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Observation: Cities Likely to Change to Drive More Efficient Transportation
• SB 375 in California and the AB 32 goals leading to first reviews of urban planning for climate impacts
• Land use and urban design the 800 pound gorilla (or one of them!) by 2030
• Mode shifting, telecommuting, better transit, walking/biking options
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Oil Demand in North America Began Declining Before Economic Downturn
Price Signal Drives
Behavior – CA Saw
Similar Response
During Electricity Crisis in
2000-2001
Peak in Oil
Prices
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Price Signals: Possibly Strongest Driver of Fuel Efficiency, LC Fuels
MPG to Maintain Today's Fuel Cost/Mile
15.5
23.2
12.4
6
9.3
$3.88 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 $15.00
Fuel Price
MP
G
20082008 2020 2030 2020 2030 2040 2040 20502050
Maintaining cost/mile for fuel means increasing efficiency or using lower cost fuels or blends.
This chart illustrates how Class 8 fuel efficiency might need to improve to maintain steady fuel cost/mile.
Discussion estimates only
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Plan Beyond the Roller Coaster
• Fuel prices are increasing over time and it is unlikely we will “go back”
$2.70
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Primary Actions
FUEL DIVERSITY: Alternative Fuels Portfolio Standard
– 10 percent by 2012 and at least 20 percent by 2020 – Codifies Governor’s stated goal; Parallel AB 32 strategy
EFFICIENT VEHICLES: ‘Energy Security Tax Relief and Realignment’
– A ‘Foreign Oil Security’ price floor coupled w/tax relief for all Californians of driving age
REDUCE NEED TO DRIVE: ‘Smart Communities’ Program
– Upgrade transportation models– New state transportation funding to local
governments who reduce driving by 10% over ~25 years
CalSTEP Recommendations
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Summary: 2030 Observations
• No crystal ball: not completely clear which fuels and technologies will be absolute winners – but they will be driven by these trends:
• Greater Link Between Region/Consumer and Fuel: – Local and Distributed Energy
• Combination Strategies: – Efficiency & Fuel Key
• Expansion of Transportation Systems: – Hardware and Software to Optimize Consumer Energy Use,
Choices• Change in Vehicle Ownership Models:
– Product vs Service• Cities Change Planning/Land Use:
– Encouraging Transport Efficiency
Clean Transportation Technologies & Solutions SM
www.calstart.org
For info contact:
Bill Van Amburg(626) [email protected]