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CAN MEGACITIES BE DISASTER RESILIENT
ALTHOUGH “BIG” CAN BE VERY VULNERABLE, WHY NOT
CAN MEGACITIES BE DISASTER RESILIENT
ALTHOUGH “BIG” CAN BE VERY VULNERABLE, WHY NOT
Walter Hays Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction
QUESTION
• WHAT IS A MEGACITY AND WHAT MEASURES WILL MAKE IT LESS VULNERABLE TO THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS?
MEGACITIES IN 1900WORLD POPULATION:
1.6 BILLION
MEGACITIES IN 1900WORLD POPULATION:
1.6 BILLION
• TOKYO: 21.9 M• NEW YORK: 15.6 M• MEXICO CITY: 13.9 M• SAO PAULO: 12.5 M• SHANGHAI: 11.7
• TOKYO: 21.9 M• NEW YORK: 15.6 M• MEXICO CITY: 13.9 M• SAO PAULO: 12.5 M• SHANGHAI: 11.7
• OSAKA: 10.0 M• BUENOS AIRES: 9.9 M• LOS ANGELES: 9.5 M• CALCUTA 9.0 M• BEIJING 9.0 M• SOURCE: THE
POPULATION INSTITUTE 2/3/01
• OSAKA: 10.0 M• BUENOS AIRES: 9.9 M• LOS ANGELES: 9.5 M• CALCUTA 9.0 M• BEIJING 9.0 M• SOURCE: THE
POPULATION INSTITUTE 2/3/01
MEGACITIES IN 2000WORLD POPULATION:
6 BILLION
MEGACITIES IN 2000WORLD POPULATION:
6 BILLION
• TOKYO: 25.4 M• BOMBAY: 18.6 M• MEXICO CITY: 18.3 M• SAO PAULO: 18.0 M• NEW YORK: 16.7 M
• TOKYO: 25.4 M• BOMBAY: 18.6 M• MEXICO CITY: 18.3 M• SAO PAULO: 18.0 M• NEW YORK: 16.7 M
• LAGOS: 14.1 M• CALCUTA 13.2 M• LOS ANGELES: 13.2 M• SHANGHAI: 13.0 M• BUENOS AIRES: 12.7 M• SOURCE: THE
POPULATION INSTITUTE 2/3/01
• LAGOS: 14.1 M• CALCUTA 13.2 M• LOS ANGELES: 13.2 M• SHANGHAI: 13.0 M• BUENOS AIRES: 12.7 M• SOURCE: THE
POPULATION INSTITUTE 2/3/01
MEGACITIES IN 2020WORLD POPULATION:
10 BILLION
MEGACITIES IN 2020WORLD POPULATION:
10 BILLION• BOMBAY: 28.5 M• TOKYO: 27.3 M• LAGOS: 26.5 M• DHAKA: 24.0 M• KARACHI: 21.7 M
• BOMBAY: 28.5 M• TOKYO: 27.3 M• LAGOS: 26.5 M• DHAKA: 24.0 M• KARACHI: 21.7 M
• SAO PAULO: 21.3 M • MEXICO CITY: 19.6 M• JAKARTA: 19.4• CALCUTA 18.8 M• NEW DEHLI: 18:R M• SOURCE: THE
POPULATION INSTITUTE 2/3/01
• SAO PAULO: 21.3 M • MEXICO CITY: 19.6 M• JAKARTA: 19.4• CALCUTA 18.8 M• NEW DEHLI: 18:R M• SOURCE: THE
POPULATION INSTITUTE 2/3/01
WHAT HISTORY TEACHESWHAT HISTORY TEACHES
• CITIES AND MEGACITIES EXIST BY GEOLOGIC, HYDROLOGIC, AND ATMOSPHERIC CONSENT, WHICH CAN BE WITHDRAWN WITHOUT NOTICE.
• CITIES AND MEGACITIES EXIST BY GEOLOGIC, HYDROLOGIC, AND ATMOSPHERIC CONSENT, WHICH CAN BE WITHDRAWN WITHOUT NOTICE.
MEGACITIES FACE DISASTERS FROM …
MEGACITIES FACE DISASTERS FROM …
• EARTHQUAKES• FLOODS• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS• LANDSLIDES• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS• WILDFIRES• TSUNAMIS• DROUGHTS
• EARTHQUAKES• FLOODS• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS• LANDSLIDES• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS• WILDFIRES• TSUNAMIS• DROUGHTS
INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS
INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS
• NATURAL HAZARDS, GENERATE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS WHICH CREATE RISK TO THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT.
• THE CHOICE: LIVE WITH UNACCEPTABLE RISK OR ACCEPTABLE LEVELS OF RISK.
• NATURAL HAZARDS, GENERATE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS WHICH CREATE RISK TO THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT.
• THE CHOICE: LIVE WITH UNACCEPTABLE RISK OR ACCEPTABLE LEVELS OF RISK.
INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS
INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS
• UNACCEPTABLE RISK CALLS FOR PUBLIC POLICIES TO REDUCE VULNER-ABILITIES.
INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS
INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS
• VULNERABILITIES REFLECT POLICY FLAWS WITH RESPECT TO PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY
INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS
INTERLOCKING CONCEPTS ON MEGACITIES AND NATURAL HAZARDS
• PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY ARE THE MOST EFFECTIVE MEASURES.
• BUT, THEY ARE HARD TO SELL TO THE PUBLIC AND TAKE TIME TO IMPLEMENT.
• PREPAREDNESS, PROTECTION, RESPONSE, AND RECOVERY ARE THE MOST EFFECTIVE MEASURES.
• BUT, THEY ARE HARD TO SELL TO THE PUBLIC AND TAKE TIME TO IMPLEMENT.
TOKYO: A MEGACITY AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
TOKYO: A MEGACITY AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
CAIRO: A MEGACITY AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
CAIRO: A MEGACITY AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
ISTHANBUL: A MEGACITY AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
ISTHANBUL: A MEGACITY AT RISK FROM NATURAL HAZARDS
ISTHANBUL: CAUSES OF VULNERABILITIES
ISTHANBUL: CAUSES OF VULNERABILITIES
• SIZE• FRAGILITY OF
EXISTING BUIDINGS/ INFRASTRUCTURE
• INADEQUATE PROTECTION MEASURES
• CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AND PRACTICES
• SIZE• FRAGILITY OF
EXISTING BUIDINGS/ INFRASTRUCTURE
• INADEQUATE PROTECTION MEASURES
• CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS AND PRACTICES
SAN FRANCISCO: DEPENDENT ON TRANSPORTATION
SAN FRANCISCO: DEPENDENT ON TRANSPORTATION
• DAMAGE TO ONE SPAN OF THE BAY BRIDGE CHANGED THE LIVES OF MILLIONS AND DISRUPTED MANY BUSINESSES.
• NOONE KNOWS THE TRUE COST.
• DAMAGE TO ONE SPAN OF THE BAY BRIDGE CHANGED THE LIVES OF MILLIONS AND DISRUPTED MANY BUSINESSES.
• NOONE KNOWS THE TRUE COST.
LOS ANGELES: DEPENDENT ON UTILITY SYSTEMS
LOS ANGELES: DEPENDENT ON UTILITY SYSTEMS
• DAMAGE TO A UTILIYY CORRIDOR CAUSEED WIDESPREAD OUTAGES OF POWER, GAS, WATER, AND WASTE CENTERS.
• OUTAGES LED TO LOSSES IN THE MILLIONS.
• DAMAGE TO A UTILIYY CORRIDOR CAUSEED WIDESPREAD OUTAGES OF POWER, GAS, WATER, AND WASTE CENTERS.
• OUTAGES LED TO LOSSES IN THE MILLIONS.
SAN FRANCISCO: SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE
SAN FRANCISCO: SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE
QUESTION
• CAN WE MAKE MEGACITIES RESILIENT TO NATURAL HAZARDS?
MEGACITYMEGACITYMEGACITYMEGACITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATIONDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
•NAT. HAZARDS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION
RISK ASSESSMENTRISK ASSESSMENT
RISK
ACCEPTABLE RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
VULNERABILITY VULNERABILITY REDUCTONREDUCTON
•PREPAREDNESS•PRPTECTION•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY •EDUCATIONAL SURGES
DISASTER DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE