CANADIAN HOUSING HEALTH CHECK Monitoring dashboard · July 2017 Largest four housing markets...

CANADIAN HOUSING HEALTH CHECK

Adjusting to policy measures in Ontario keeps near-term

housing risks elevated in Canada

Local housing risk indicators still show unusually high risks and vulnerabilities in

Toronto and other southern Ontario markets but the recent easing of upward price pressure has been a positive development. Risk profiles in other markets generally

continued to improve.

Nation-wide, the probability of a steep and widespread housing downturn in Canada

over the next 12 months remains low, although it has increased slightly because of the

potential for overreaction to policy action in Ontario and for further policy tightening.

Housing policy: Reaction to Ontario’s Fair Housing Plan announced on April 20 has

been swift. Home resales have dropped sharply and listings have surged in the Great-

er Toronto Area. The plan appears to be having some success at reining in price ex-

pectations for both buyers and sellers in the area, although the process of adjustment

has yet to run its course fully.

Tax on foreign buyers in Vancouver: The Vancouver market has adjusted in an

orderly fashion to the 15% tax on home purchased by foreign nationals. Its dampen-

ing effect on homebuyer demand may be waning, however.

Escalating prices in Canada’s hot markets: Affordability-related vulnerabilities

remain high in Toronto (where they continued to increase recently) and Vancouver

(where they have decreased modestly since the fall).

Interest rates: Interest rate risks are still contained but have increased recently. The

Bank of Canada raised its overnight rate by 25 basis points in early July and signaled

that there may be more to come. The news sparked a run-up in bond yields. While we

expect yields to drift higher, the odds of a spike in rates are low in the short term.

Energy sector downturn: Oil prices’ renewed softness in recent months has turned

the focus on this risk factor again in oil-producing provinces. Any further decline in

oil prices could jeopardize the burgeoning recovery in Alberta’s housing market.

Unemployment: Labour market-related risks have generally continued to ease. In

particular, there was notable improvement in Alberta where the unemployment rate

has declines markedly from decade-high levels late last year.

July 2017

Largest four housing markets

Toronto — Elevated risks and vulnera-

bilities persist while the market transi-

tions toward a cooler state in the

wake of policy action. Prices are likely

to decline m/m for a period of time.

Sharp shifts in market psychology al-

ways raise the odds of overreaction.

But slower home resale activity and

increased supply of homes for sale

have been positive developments.

Montreal — Upward momentum con-

tinued to build so far in 2017. Sales

are growing and inventories declining.

Prices have picked up their pace but

still within very reasonable range,

although affordability is starting to

become a little stretched. The mar-

ket’s risk profile is quite positive over-

all at this point.

Vancouver — Despite further improve-

ments this year, extremely poor af-

fordability is still a major vulnerabil-

ity. Policy measures to address hous-

ing risks have contributed to cooling

the market down, although the effect

of these measures may be waning. The

recent tightening of demand-supply

conditions has dimmed the risk of a

sharp price decline in the near term.

Calgary — Growing signs of an eco-

nomic recovery have improved the risk

profile. High condo and rental invento-

ries are still sources of concerns. The

recent softening in oil prices also rais-

es risks. A drop in condo construction

and an improving trend for home re-

sales have been positive develop-

ments.

Canada Vancouver Calgary Toronto Montreal

Affordability

Resale market balance

Rental market balance

Interest rates

Labour market

Demographics

New home inventory - singles

New home inventory - multiples

Homes under construction - singles

Homes under construction - multiples

Significantly outside historical norms and posing much higher risk than usual

Modestly outside historical norms and posing moderately higher risk than usual

Within historical norms or not posing any immediate threat

Monitoring dashboard

Craig Wright

Chief Economist

(416) 974-7457

[email protected]

Robert Hogue

Senior Economist

416-974-6192

[email protected]

CANADIAN HOUSING HEALTH CHECK | JULY 2017

2

Background

Canadian Housing Health Check provides RBC Economics’ assessment of key indicators of Canada’s housing market that are

deemed to offer early warning of potential imbalances. This monitoring exercise is one of the tools used regularly by RBC Econom-

ics to follow developments in this important sector of the Canadian economy. The report focuses on indicators that have been closely

correlated (leading or coincident) with housing downturns and significant home price declines during housing cycles in the past three

decades or so. While we believe that housing affordability and the sales-to-new listings ratio (and months’ inventory) are the best

indicators of market stress and price pressure, respectively, no single indicator provides perfect and accurate early warning signals of

impending trouble. Accordingly, Canadian Housing Health Check emphasizes a ‘dashboard’ approach to convey the point that trou-ble in the housing market can arise from many directions and that it is imperative to monitor the situation broadly. This approach is

complemented by a detailed review of individual indicators that includes a graphical depiction of the current situation within a his-

torical context and a brief discussion of the rationale of our assessment.

About the graphics and risk ‘zone’ system The dashboard graphics display the current values of the indicators (dark blue bar) within zones that we consider safe (green), con-

cerning (yellow) or dangerous (red). The width of each graphics represents the range of values posted by the indicator during the past

30 years (or period of time available). The far left corresponds to the safest measure ever recorded and the far right, to the most ex-

treme imbalance reached historically. For most indicators, the left corresponds to low values but for some (sales-to-new listings ratio

and net immigration) to high values.

The yellow and red zones appearing in dashboard graphics and individual indicator charts generally were determined by analyzing past housing downturns and constitute our estimations of thresholds above (or, in some cases, below) which market imbalances and

significant home price declines occurred at the national level in Canada. The yellow zone comprises a range of values that, histori-

cally, have been mostly associated with imbalances but not always with housing downturns (i.e. sustained price declines). In other

words, these values give somewhat ambiguous and sometimes ‘false’ signals. The red zone, however, comprises values that repre-

sent imbalances much more clearly and of larger magnitude. An indicator in the red zone should be considered a source of worry.

The farther to the right in the red zone in the dashboard graphics are the values, the more extreme is the imbalance, the more intense

is the stress exerted on the market and, ultimately, the more severe the potential correction.

The specific rules at the national level are as follows:

RBC Affordability Measure for the aggregate of all housing types: yellow threshold = 41.5% (0.3 standard deviations above

the long-term mean); and red at 45.1% (1.0 standard deviations above the mean).

Sales-to-new listings ratio: yellow threshold = 0.40; and red = 0.35.

Months of inventory: yellow threshold = 7.0; red = 8.5.

Rental vacancy rate: yellow threshold = 3.2% (long-term mean); and red = 3.7% (0.5 standard deviations above the mean).

Real 5-year bond yield relative to trailing 12-month average: yellow threshold = 1.0 percentage point (1 standard deviation

above the mean); red = 2.0 percentage points (2 standard deviations).

Unemployment rate relative to trailing 12-month average: yellow threshold = 0.41 percentage points (0.6 standard deviation

above the mean); red = 0.9 percentage points (1.5 standard deviations).

Net immigration per 1,000 population: yellow threshold = 6.5 (0.5 standard deviations above the mean); red = 5.0 (0.4 stand-

ard deviations below the mean).

Completed and unoccupied units per 1,000 population, singles and semis: yellow threshold = 0.29 (0.3 standard deviations

above the mean); red = 0.36 (1.3 standard deviation above the mean).

Completed and unoccupied units per 1,000 population, multiples: yellow threshold = 0.36 (the mean); red = 0.47 (0.9 stand-

ard deviation above the mean).

Housing under construction per 1,000 population, singles: yellow threshold = 2.11 (0.5 standard deviations from the mean);

red = 2.33 (1 standard deviation from the mean).

Housing under construction per 1,000 population, multiples: yellow threshold = 3.93 (0.5 standard deviations from the

mean); red = 4.58 (1 standard deviation from the mean).

The areas shaded in grey in the indicator charts correspond to housing downturns – i.e., periods during which home prices (as de-

fined as average prices of homes sold on the MLS system) fell by more than 5% from monthly peak to trough. It is important to note

that the precise timing of these downturns can vary depending on the home price measure used. The grey shaded areas, therefore,

should be seen as broad guidelines.


3

CANADA

Affordability

Near-term: neutral

Medium-term: negative

Existing home market balance

Near-term: positive


Near-term: positive


Near-term: positive

Medium-term: positive

Demand fundamentals

Near-term: neutral

Medium-term: neutral

Near-term: positive


Near-term: positive


Supply fundamentals

Near-term: positive


Near-term: positive


Near-term: positive


Near-term: positive


Risk implications

RBC affordability measure- aggregate

Low High

Sales-to-new listings ratio

LowHigh

Months of inventory

Low High

Change in real 5-Year bond yields

Low High

Low High

Housing under construction per capita - singles

Low High

YellowHousing under construction per capita - multiples

Low High

Yellow

Rental vacancy rate

Change in the unemployment rate

Low High

Yellow

LowHigh

Yellow

Net immigration rate

Low High

YellowCompleted and unsold units per capita - singles and semis

Low High

YellowCompleted and unosold units

per capita - multiples


4

Affordability

CANADA


20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average

RBC affordability measure - aggregate

Source: RBC Economics Research, Brookfield RPS, Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada, Royal LePage

Ownership costs as % of household income, Canada

In our view, affordability is the most meaningful indicator of underlying

market stress. Other traditional metrics such price-to-income and price-to-rent

ratios can be useful guides of market imbalance under many circumstances;

however in the current environment, affordability is a superior gauge because

it explicitly takes into account interest rates (the other measures don’t), which

have been—and, in the near term, expected to remain—abnormally low.

The most recent reading of RBC’s aggregate housing affordability meas-

ure (45.9% in Q1 2017) suggests the presence of greater-than-average

market stress for buyers in Canada with the situation steadily deteriorat-

ing since the spring of 2015. Affordability is most stretched for single-

detached home in Canada’s largest markets. Condo affordability (37.2%)

is generally closer to its historical norms, which implies less stress in this

category.

We estimate the ‘danger zone’ for the aggregate measure to be above 45.0%

nationally.

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Monthly, S.A.


Source: RBC Economics Research, Canadian Real Estate Association

Monthly, S.A., Canada


Buyer's market

Balanced market

Seller's market

The sales-to-new listings ratio is a reliable gauge of the degree of slack or

tightness in the resale market. When the ratio approaches, or is above 0.60,

the market favours sellers and prices typically rise rapidly. When the ratio

approaches, or is below 0.40, the market favours buyers and prices come

under intense downward pressure. Anything in between is considered a bal-

anced market and prices tend to rise modestly.

Canada-wide, the sales-to-new listings ratio fell back within the range

consistent with balanced market conditions after climbing into seller’s

market territory in 2016. Home resales dropped sharply in May and

June, 2017, in Canada after trending upwardly since 2013. New listings

rebounded strongly this spring after plummeting late last year. Extreme-

ly tight markets in Ontario earlier this year have rebalanced in recent

months.

Historically, the largest price declines occurred when the ratio fell below

0.35.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Long-term average

Monthly, S.A., Canada

Months of inventory


The total number of homes for sale expressed as the number of months it

would take to sell them at the current pace of sales is another resale market

balance indicator. Historical correlation with prices is difficult to establish

with precision, however, because the Canadian Real Estate Association has

been publishing this indicator only since 2004.

Nonetheless, based on what track record is available, we estimate that down-

ward pressure on prices start to build at levels between 7.0 and 8.5 months,

and that severe pressure emerges at levels exceeding 8.5.

The sharp rebound in new listings this spring boosted the number of

months’ inventory in Canada to 5.1 in June, just slightly below the long-

run average of 5.3. This level is consistent with continued price increases.

Demand-supply balance indicators for the existing home market, there-

fore, continue to suggest little in the way of any imminent drop in prices

in the national market.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Long-term average

Rental vacancy rate

Annual:1988-2010; Semi-annual: 2011-currentSource: RBC Economics Research, CMHC

%, total CMAs, purpose-built apartment buildings of three units or more, Canada The rental vacancy rate has not correlated very closely with prices historical-

ly. However, we believe that the Canadian housing story will be very sensi-

tive to the supply of new units into the marketplace, much of which (almost

entirely condos) will be directed toward the rental market. Therefore, this

gauge of market absorption in the rental segment should be monitored close-

ly.

A main drawback of the vacancy rate as a monitoring tool is that it is pub-

lished only once a year (in October) by CMHC.

The latest data for October 2016 shows further marginal increase from

3.3% in October 2015 to 3.4% at the national level, which slightly ex-

ceeds the long-term average (3.0%). The rise since 2014 primarily reflect-

ed large increases in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

We would consider a vacancy rate above 3.5% as a sign of oversupply in the

rental space.


5

Demand fundamentals

CANADA

Supply fundamentals

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Percentage points, Canada

Real 5-year bond yields relative to trailing 12-month average

Source: RBC Economics Research, Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada

Surges in interest rates have been strongly associated with market downturns

and price declines in several housing cycles in the past 30 years in Canada.

A 100 basis-point rise relative to the trailing 12-month average would apply

intense downward pressure on the market and a 200 basis point surge would

likely destabilize it and potentially cause a significant price decline.

The yield on the five-year Government of Canada bond surged in June

to its highest level in 30 months, although the yield is still low from a

historical perspective. The real yield was up 116 basis points from its 12-

month trailing average in June, which posed some risk to the market.

RBC’s base case interest rate forecast calls for the overnight rate to rise

by another 25 basis points in 2017, followed by two additional hikes of

similar size in 2018. RBC expects longer-term rates to continue to drift

modestly higher. This scenario would present only moderate risks to the

housing market over the short term.

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Percentage points, Canada

Unemployment rate relative to trailing 12-month average

Source: RBC Economics Research, Statistics Canada

Similarly, spikes of unemployment have been associated with housing down-

turns in the past 30 years, although they have tended to lag price declines

rather than lead them.

We estimate that a 0.25 percentage point increase in Canada’s unemployment

rate relative to the trailing 12-month average would stress the market moder-

ately, but that a full percentage-point surge would threaten its stability.

The unemployment rate has trended downwardly since the beginning of

2016 and continued to do so in 2017. It reached an eight-year low of

6.5% in April and June. The rate has been below its trailing 12-month

average since May 2016.

Labour market conditions pose little risk nationally at this point. Some

areas of the country show a higher degree of risk; however, there has

been easing of such in Alberta so far in 2017 with that province’s unem-

ployment rate dropping noticeably.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average

Trailing 4-quarter sum, Canada, per 1,000 population

Net immigration rate


Net immigration into Canada is another indicator that has not correlated

closely with housing downturns or price declines historically; however, given

the boom in condo construction in major Canadian cities, any sign that the

strong inflow of immigrants is slowing would be concerning.

The rate of net immigration in Canada (measured per 1,000 population)

has surged since late-2015, after falling between late 2014 and mid-2015.

After reaching a multi-decade high at the end of 2016, the eased back some-

what to 8.9 in Q1/17, still very comfortably above the 6.5 threshold signal-

ling some degree of vulnerability.

The rate is likely to remain elevated in light of the federal government

maintaining a high target (300K) for new permanent residents in the

country in 2017.

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average

Units per 1,000 population, Canada, n.s.a.

Completed and unsold units - singles and semis

Source: RBC Economics Research, Statistics Canada, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

A telltale of an overbuilt market is the number of units recently completed but

remaining unsold.

We segment the Canadian market into singles and multiples to identify poten-

tial sources of trouble.

On the single-family homes side, the stock of unsold units has dipped

slightly since the summer of 2016 to 0.21 units per 1,000 population by

May, thereby resuming a downward trend after stabilizing between mid-

2014 and mid-2016. There continues to be no signs of any excess supply

of new single-detached units in Canada at this stage. If fact, the opposite

is the case in several markets where single-detached are in short supply.

We would consider the situation concerning at 0.29 units and dangerous at

0.36 units.


6

Supply fundamentals

CANADA

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average


Completed and unsold units - multiples


On the multi-unit dwellings side, market absorption has been solid

throughout 2016 and early-2017 amid slower completions compared to

2015 (when a spike in condo completions in Toronto occurred early in the

year). This helped to draw down the inventory of unsold units in Canada.

The rate of unsold units eased to 0.32 units per 1,000 population in May

2017, down from a 19-year high of 0.41 units in May 2015.

The latest read of this indicator was slightly below the long-term average

(0.36) and well below the 0.48 threshold that would signal a high degree

of excess.

Overall, the inventory of completed but unsold condos evolved construc-

tively in the past two years in Canada, thereby muting oversupply risks.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average


Housing under construction - singles


The object of much concern in recent past has been the number of housing

units under construction in Canada.

We continue to find that little concern of overbuilding is warranted in the

single family home segment, where levels remain well below historical

averages (when measured on a per 1,000 population basis) with the trend

even declining slightly in the past several years, although a slight uptick

appears to have taken place since the late stages of 2016.

In some of Canada’s largest markets, demand for single family homes

significantly outstrips supply.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average


Housing under construction - multiples


On the multiples side, however, there are record-high levels of condo

units under construction in Canada.

There were 6.0 multi-unit dwellings per 1,000 population under construc-

tion in Q2/17.

Strictly speaking, this level is well into the ‘high risk zone’ (4.6 units or

higher). Yet in the context of tight demand-supply balances in markets

such Vancouver and until recently Toronto, strong construction should

be seen as being part of the solution to restrain price increases.

Most of the units being built are in the Toronto (31% of total) and Van-

couver (19%) areas.

Strong condo construction in large part reflects structural changes that

arose from policy (e.g. rules limiting urban sprawl) and affordability

(condo apartments are the more affordable housing type) considerations,

and therefore, represents a market share gain over single-family homes.

Nonetheless, the prospects for high levels of condo completions in the

period ahead potentially entail a fair degree of absorption risks over the

medium term.


7

GREATER TORONTO AREA

Affordability

Near-term: negative



Near-term: neutral


Near-term: positive


Near-term: positive


Demand fundamentals

Near-term: neutral


Near-term: positive


Near-term: positive


Supply fundamentals

Near-term: positive


Near-term: positive


Near-term: positive


Near-term: neutral


Risk implications


Low High


Low High


LowHigh

Months of inventory -

OntarioLow High

Low High

Yellow

Rental vacancy rate


Low High

Yellow

LowHigh

Yellow

Population growth

Low High


Low High

YellowCompleted and unsold units per

capita - multiples

Low High


Low High



8

Affordability in the GTA has been on a deteriorating trend since 2012

with the pace of deterioration accelerating since 2015. RBC’s measure is

now in a zone that historically has been associated with a high risk of an

ensuing negative outcome.

Most of the affordability pressure is concentrated in the single-family

home side of the market; however, stress has increased in the condo seg-

ment as well lately, with condo prices escalating rapidly in the past year.

Stretched affordability may become a more pressing issue now that the

Toronto-area market has started to cool.

Sky-rocketing prices earlier this year posed a substantial risk to the fu-

ture stability of the market.

The Toronto-area market would be more sensitive to a substantial rise in

interest rates than most markets in Canada due to its high prices.

Demand-supply conditions swung sharply in favour of buyers this spring

after becoming extremely tight at the start of 2017. From a 31-year high

of 0.94 in January 2017, the sales-to-new listings ratio plummeted to 0.39

by June, marginally below the 0.40 threshold marking conditions favour-

ing buyers. Earlier tight market conditions fueled strong price increases

for all types of housing and in all areas within (and outside) the GTA.

The sudden swing in market conditions is signaling a significant easing in

upward price pressure and raises the potential for a period of outright

price declines.

Indeed, the average price of homes sold on the MLS system has fallen by

14% between April and June. Benchmark prices, however, have softened

by less than 1% in June.

A moderate, controlled decline in prices should seen as a positive devel-

opment that would bring some much needed affordability relief.

Affordability



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Long-term average

Monthly, S.A., Ontario

Months of inventory


The easing of earlier demand-supply tightness is also apparent in the rise

in inventories of homes for sales (active listings), which had plummeted

to historically low levels at the start of this year.

Although CREA data is available only at the provincial level, the number

of months’ inventory in Ontario rose to 2.7 in June from its lowest point

(1.5 months in March 2017) since records have been published by the

Canadian Real Estate Association (2003).

Separate data from the Toronto Real Estate Board shows that the num-

ber of months of inventory in the Toronto area was 1.2 in June 2017, up

from 1.0 in March but still down from 1.5 a year earlier and 2.2 at the

end of 2014.

Concerns that Toronto’s condo boom would flood the rental market and

cause vacancies to rise have not materialized to date.

The rental vacancy rate in the GTA has remained low in recent years. In

fact, it fell slightly in October 2016 to 1.3% from 1.6% a year earlier.

Toronto Real Estate Board statistics showed that condo rental activity

was strong Q2/17 but flat relative to a year earlier due to a drop in the

number of units listed for rent (down 3.1%) which restrained supply.

Average rent continued to rise at a brisk pace (by almost 9% y/y for a

one-bedroom apartment).

So far, there is little evidence that condo investors who rent out their

units have overestimated rental demand.

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average



Ownership costs as % of household income, Toronto

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Monthly, S.A.



Monthly, S.A., Toronto


Buyer's market

Balanced market

Seller's market

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Long-term average

Rental vacancy rate

Source: RBC Economics Research, CMHC

%, purpose-built apartment buildings of three units or more, Toronto


9

Labour market conditions in the GTA continue to be generally support-

ive for the area’s housing market.

Toronto’s unemployment rate remains on a seven-year long downtrend,

easing to 6.7% in June which just shy of the eight-year low of 6.5% rec-

orded in July 2016.

Labour market-related risks remain low at this point.

Demand fundamentals


Supply fundamentals

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Percentage points, Toronto



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average

Y/Y % change in the 15+ population, Toronto

Adult population growth


Solid demographic fundamentals have long supported GTA’s housing

market.

Those fundamentals improved since early 2016, following a period of

softening in 2014-2015.

The rate of growth in adult population picked up from 1.6% in mid-2015

to 1.9% most recently, thereby matching GTA’s long-term average.

A rate below 1.5% would be a source of concern.

GTA home builders are responding to a dearth of single-family homes in

the area, with single-starts rising 16% in both 2015 and 2016 (from his-

torically low levels in 2014).

This is as a positive development that will help address the tightness issue

in this housing category.

Inventories of newly completed and unsold the single-family continue to

be historically low despite trending slightly higher in the past four years.

There is no indication of overbuilding of single-family homes in the area

at present.

The inventory of recently completed and unsold condo units last year

ceased to be a concern in the Toronto area.

Absorption of newly built condos has been brisk in the GTA since late

2015 and stocks of unsold units have come down considerably.

The unabsorbed inventory fell from a 22-year peak of 0.58 units per

1,000 population in May 2015 to 0.14 units in May 2017, which is well

within the ‘safe zone’—i.e., below the 0.27 threshold signalling the poten-

tial for mild excess supply.

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average

Units per 1,000 population, Toronto, n.s.a.



0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average





10

Supply fundamentals


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average




Single-detached starts picked up in both 2015 and 2016, and boosted the

number of such units under construction; still, the increase has not been

excessive as the most recent level roughly equaled the long-term average

for the area when measured in per 1,000 population terms.

The current pace of construction activity therefore does not signal any

impending wave of single-unit supply that might cause trouble for the

market.

Policy to reduce urban sprawl and favour higher density urban develop-

ment contributed to a significant slowdown in single-detached home

construction since the mid-2000s.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average




The number of multi-unit dwellings under construction continues to be

historically high, although it has moderated in the last two years.

Expressed on a per 1,000 population basis, multi-unit construction re-

mains in a high risk zone; however, the potential threat to the market is

tempered by the healthier unsold condo inventory and very strong de-

mand in the existing home market.

The main risk of high levels of construction is that many units could

reach the completed stage at once, thereby flooding the condo resale and/

or rental markets. So far, both of these markets have absorbed the in-

creased supply quite handily.


11

GREATER MONTREAL AREA

Affordability

Near-term: neutral



Near-term: positive


Near-term: neutral


Near-term: neutral


Demand fundamentals

Near-term: neutral


Near-term: positive


Near-term: positive


Supply fundamentals

Near-term: positive


Near-term: positive


Near-term: positive


Near-term: negative


Risk implications


Low High


Low High


LowHigh


QuebecLow High

Low High

Yellow

Rental vacancy rate


Low High

Yellow

LowHigh

Yellow

Population growth

Low High


Low High

YellowCompleted and unsold units per capita - multiples

Low High


Low High



12

Affordability



Existing home supply expressed as number of months’ inventory shows a

declining trend in Quebec since early 2015 from elevated levels. This

metric was at the edge of the mild-risk zone in June.

This is consistent with the modest but steady firming in marked condi-

tions in Montreal.

A wave of condo completions in 2014 (+18%) increased competition for

purpose-built apartment buildings, which has translated into higher

rental vacancy rates in 2015.

The opposite then occurred, whereby a sharp drop in condo completions

in 2015 (-28%) contributed to a slight easing in the vacancy rate from

4.0% in October 2015 to 3.9% in October 2016.

Such a rate continues to signal some mild degree of oversupply in the

rental market.

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average



Ownership costs as % of household income, Montreal

Affordability deteriorated slightly in the Montreal area since early 2016

after showing an improving trend in the previous six years. Despite the

recent erosion, affordability does not pose any unusual stress for buyers

at this point.

RBC’s aggregate measure was 43.0% in Q1/17, up 1.6 percentage points

from a year ago and within a range consistent with moderate risk.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Monthly, S.A.



Monthly, S.A., Montreal


Buyer's market

Balanced market

Seller's market

Demand-supply conditions in the Montreal area have tightened steadily

since 2014. The sales-to-new listings ratio continued to drift higher in

2016 and the first half of 2017, reaching 0.62 in May, which was the high-

est point in seven years.

Home resales were up by 8% in the second quarter of 2017. Robust sales

activity took place amid a continued decline in the number of homes put

out for sale each month, which resulted in a significant drawdown in

inventories, especially in the single-detached segment. Condo invento-

ries—which had been a significant issue earlier—also fell, although they

remain quite plentiful in the area.

The upward trend in the sales-to-new listings ratio suggests that the rate

of price increases may strengthen in the period ahead, and do not point

to any imminent risk of a sharp decline.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Long-term average

Monthly, S.A., Quebec

Months of inventory


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

long-term average

Rental vacancy rate


%, purpose-built apartment buildings of three units or more, Montreal


13

Montreal’s job market has been very strong since mid-2016. The unem-

ployment fell impressively by 1.3 percentage points in the past 12

months. It stood at 6.5% in June, its lowest level in 10 years.

The drop offered further support for the housing market and therefore

was a significantly positive development from a risk point of view.

Demand fundamentals


Supply fundamentals

Following a two year-long period of easing growth, Montreal’s adult

population has grown at a faster rates since mid-2015, and returned to its

long-term average of 1.0% most recently.

Overall demographics currently pose little risks for the market.

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Percentage points, Montreal



0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average

Y/Y % change in the 15+ population, Montreal



0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average

Units per 1,000 population, Montreal, n.s.a.



There continues to be very few newly completed single-family homes that

are unsold in the Montreal area.

We see no evidence of an overbuild in this market segment.

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.4

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average




On the multi-unit dwelling side, conditions improved noticeably since

2015 with the stock of unabsorbed units declining markedly. The stock

fell from 0.91 units per 1,000 population in August 2015 to 0.64 units by

May 2017—marginally below the long-term average.

This suggests that the earlier surplus of multi-unit dwellings has been

largely resolved in the Montreal market.


14

Supply fundamentals


0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average




The risk of any overbuilding of single-family homes in the short term is

extremely remote.

Current levels of units under construction are significantly below long-

run averages and well within the ‘safe zone’.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average




A noticeable increase in multi-unit dwelling starts since mid-2016 has

pushed the number multi-unit dwellings under construction higher in the

Montreal area in recent months.

In per 1,000 population terms, that number rose from 4.9 in July 2016 to

6.1 in May 2017, a new all-time high.

The number of multi-unit dwellings under construction, thus, remains

historically elevated and still poses a potential risk of overbuilding.

Strong condo construction activity in the past decade partly reflected a

structural shift toward multiples supported by urban development policy

and affordability advantage relative to single-family homes.


15

GREATER VANCOUVER AREA

Affordability

Near-term: negative



Near-term: positive


Near-term: positive


Near-term: positive


Demand fundamentals

Near-term: neutral


Near-term: positive


Near-term: negative


Supply fundamentals

Near-term: positive


Near-term: positive


Near-term: neutral


Near-term: positive


Risk implications


Low High


Low High


LowHigh

Months of inventory - BC

Low High

Low High

Yellow

Rental vacancy rate


Low High

Yellow

LowHigh

Yellow

Population growth

Low High


Low High

Completed and unsold units per

capita - multiples

Low High


Low High

Housing under construction per capita - multiples


Low High


Low High


LowHigh

Months of inventory - BC

Low High

Low High

Yellow

Rental vacancy rate


Low High

Yellow

LowHigh

Yellow

Population growth

Low High



16

Affordability



The firming of market conditions tightness in recent months is also visi-

ble at the provincial level where the inventory of homes available for sale

measured in number of months of sale eased again in recent months after

rising slightly last year. The inventory remains historically low.

This indicator suggests the presence of upward price pressure in the

province.

While clear signs have emerged that demand-supply conditions are eas-

ing in the home ownership market, conditions remain very tight in Van-

couver’s rental market.

The area’s rental vacancy rate continued to decline in 2016, reaching a

eight-year low of 0.7% in October. This is one of the lowest vacancy rates

in Canada.

Vancouver’s rental market, therefore, shows no evidence of any looming

surplus that would cause concerns for the home ownership market.

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average



Ownership costs as % of household income, Vancouver

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Monthly, S.A.



Monthly, S.A., Vancouver


Buyer's market

Balanced market

Seller's market

Despite some improvement at the end of 2016 and beginning of 2017,

extremely poor housing affordability continues to pose a major risk for

the Vancouver-area market.

Affordability stress is found in both single-family and condo apartment

categories; however, it is far more intense in the former.

At 79.7% in Q1/17, RBC’s aggregate affordability measure for the area

remained close to the worst level on record.

Poor affordability is likely among the factors that contributed to a signif-

icant moderation in home resales in the area since a peak was reached in

the winter of 2016. Policy changes—including the surprise implementa-

tion of a new tax on purchases made by foreign buyers last August—also

likely contributed significantly.

After easing during a brief period last fall, demand-supply conditions in

the Vancouver area firmed up again this year—although nowhere close

to the degree of tightness that prevailed in early 2016.

The sales-to-new listings ratio pushed back up into sellers’ market terri-

tory, reaching 0.65 in June 2017. This level suggests the presence of up-

ward pressure on prices.

Prices have picked up slightly this spring. Provincial government statis-

tics show that some (although not all) foreign buyers had returned to the

area by the late stages of 2016 after moving to the sidelines following the

introduction of the foreign buyer tax.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Long-term average

Monthly, S.A., British Columbia

Months of inventory


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Long-term average

Rental vacancy rate

Source: RBC Economics Research, CMHC

%, purpose-built apartment buildings of three units or more, Vancouver


17

The job situation in Vancouver has been positive in 2016 and the first

half of 2017 with the jobless rate continuing to hover around the 5%

mark.

Labour market developments do not pose any immediate threat to the

housing market. On the contrary, they offer substantial support current-

ly.

Demand fundamentals


Supply fundamentals

Adult population growth has slowed in the past year from 1.9% y/y in

March 2016 to 1.4% in June 2017. The rate of growth has dipped mar-

ginally below the threshold (1.5%) signaling the presence of elevated

risks.

Any sustained period of slower-than-usual growth in population could

cause some issues for the high levels of housing construction in the area.

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Percentage points, Vancouver



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Long-term average

Y/Y % change in the 15+ population, Vancouver



0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Long-term average

Units per 1,000 population, Vancouver, n.s.a.



Absorption of single-detached and semi-detached units has been quite

strong since early 2014, although there has been some modest easing

lately. The number of recently completed and unsold units has risen

moderately from 0.31 units per 1,000 population in May 2016 to 0.44 in

May 2017—still well into the ‘safe zone’ and below the long-range aver-

age of 0.60 units.

With singles and semi-detached completions now trending slightly down-

wardly, the Vancouver-area market shows few signs of being overbuilt at

this point or becoming so in the near term.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average




Similarly, the situation on the multi-unit dwelling side of the market

remains safe.

The number of completed and unsold units has trended lower since early

2014, reaching a nine-year low in August 2016 and staying flat since then.

Moderate levels of apartment completions in 2014 and 2015 limited the

flow of new supply into the market, and declining completions over the

latter half of 2016 and early-2017 reinforced this trend this year.

The Vancouver condo market does not appear to be overbuilt at this

point.

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Percentage points, Vancouver



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average

Y/Y % change in the 15+ population, Vancouver



0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average





18

Supply fundamentals


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average




0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average




Builders’ response to the shortage of single-family homes in the Vancou-

ver area became more vigorous in 2016 with starts rising by 12% from

2015. The sharp slowing in resale activity for single-detached homes

during the latter half of last year elicited a concomitant retrenchment in

single-detached starts in the fourth quarter (down 3.2% y/y) and first

quarter of 2017 (down 27% y/y). Nonetheless, strong starts prior to that

point drove the number of units under construction its highest level in 23

years in May.

On its own, the rising number of single-family homes under construction

suggest an increasing (albeit moderate) risk of oversupply in the period

ahead; however, low inventories of unsold single-detached homes helps to

mitigate that risk.

Fueled by very strong housing starts in 2016, the number of multi-family

units under construction (on a per 1000 population basis) rose to a new

record level in recent months, thereby signaling a greater-than-usual risk

of imbalance in this market segment.

Such risk is tempered by the tight market conditions in the resale market

and low inventories of newly built and unsold units.


19

CALGARY AREA

Affordability

Near-term: positive



Near-term: positive


Near-term: neutral


Near-term: negative


Demand fundamentals

Near-term: neutral


Near-term: positive


Near-term: negative


Supply fundamentals

Near-term: positive


Near-term: negative


Near-term: positive


Near-term: positive


Risk implications


Low High


Low High


LowHigh


AlbertaLow High

Low High

Yellow

Rental vacancy rate


Low High

Yellow

LowHigh

Yellow

Population growth

Low High


Low High

Completed and unsold units per capita - multiples

Low High


Low High



20

Affordability

CALGARY AREA


The overall inventory of homes for sale in Alberta rose again this spring

after easing at the start of 2017. The number of months’ inventory

climbed to 6.5 in June after reaching a low of 5.2 in February. The latest

reading suggest moderate risk for the market

The Calgary Real Estate Board reported that active listings in the area

were up by 11% in June relative to a year earlier; however, the average

number of days it took a property to sell fell from 47 to 38 over the same

interval.

The recent uptick in active inventory, if sustained, may rekindle down-

ward pressure on prices in the near term.

Calgary’s rental market appears to be over-supplied.

The rental vacancy rate surged to a record high of 7.0% in October 2016,

up from 5.3% in October 2015 and just 1.4% the year before that.

Such elevated vacancy rate raises significant downside risks for rent

values in the area and revenue prospects for condo investors.

Indeed, CMHC figures show that average apartment rent fell between

2.2% and 6.4% in 2016 depending on the size of the unit.

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average



Ownership costs as % of household income, Calgary

Housing affordability continues to be a generally constructive factor for

the Calgary-area market, remaining quite stable in the past year slightly

under 40% for RBC’s aggregate measure.

Calgary still faces a number of tough issues; however, there is no evi-

dence to suggest that affordability is one of them.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Monthly, S.A.



Monthly, S.A., Calgary


Buyer's market

Balanced market

Seller's market

After weakening considerably in 2015, demand-supply conditions im-

proved in 2016 and the first half of 2017 on the back of a slight recovery

in home resales since spring last year (from a historically low base) and a

reduction in new listings.

The sales-to-new listings ratio—which rose from 0.41 at the end of 2015

to an average of 0.52 in the second quarter of 2017—would suggest that

the Calgary market is balanced; however, there continues to be a hefty

inventory of active listings (3.7 months’ worth of supply in the Calgary

region according to the Calgary Real Estate Board), especially for condo

apartments.

Signs of a progressive recovery in homebuyer demand have emerged in

the past year. Despite a softening of activity late in the spring, home re-

sales are up 12% above year ago levels in the first half of 2017.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Long-term average

Monthly, S.A., Alberta

Months of inventory


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Long-term average

Rental vacancy rate


%, purpose-built apartment buildings of three units or more, Calgary


21

Calgary’s labour market has improved significantly since the middle of

2016. Employment rose by a solid 4.9% over the 12 months ending in

June 2017 and the jobless rate has fallen by 1.3 percentage points since

November 2016 to 8.9% in June.

The speed with which labour market conditions improved in the past

several months constituted, in effect, a ‘positive shock’ to the market,

thereby sharply tempering risks for the housing market.

With evidence of economic recovery springing across Alberta, Calgary’s

labour market is likely to continue to perk up during the remainder of

2017—assuming that the recent soft patch in oil prices does not derail

confidence.

Demand fundamentals

CALGARY AREA

Supply fundamentals

Past deterioration in job prospects contributed significantly to a slow-

down in Calgary’s adult population growth—from a recent cyclical high

of 4.0% in early 2014 to a 23-year low of 1.4% in June 2017.

Calgary’s 2017 Civic Census showed a small increase in net migration

following a net loss in 2016 for only the second time in the past quarter

century. Total population growth remained weak at 0.9% in 2017.

Demographics-related risks have risen in the Calgary area.

That being said, evidence of a turnaround in Calgary’s labour market

bode well for reversing the recent deterioration in demographic trends.

-2

-1

1

2

3

4

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Percentage points, Calgary



0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average

Y/Y % change in the 15+ population, Calgary



0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average

Units per 1,000 population, Calgary, n.s.a.



There are few signs of overbuilding of single-detached homes in Calgary.

The number of unsold single-detached and semi-detached has trended

lower after 2000 and stabilized at historically low levels since early 2015

(on a per 1000 population basis).

Despite the turbulence in the resale market in the past three years, sta-

bility of the unsold inventory has been achieved by drastic curtailment of

new single-family home construction. Single-family home starts plum-

meted by 36% in 2015 and again by 16% in 2016.

Such builder restraint substantially minimizes overbuilding risks in this

category.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average




The situation is quite different in the multi-unit segment where the num-

ber of unabsorbed units has surged since the spring of 2015 (when Calga-

ry arguably had a supply shortage) to record-high levels since late-2016.

The stock of unsold units was driven higher by sharp increases in condo

apartment completions (up by 39% in 2015 and 8% in 2016) at a time

when demand turned cold.

The completed and unsold inventory rocketed past the long-term average

(on a per 1000 population basis) for the area and deep into the high risk

zone. There is strong evidence of surplus in this segment of the market in

Calgary, which may threaten its stability.


22

Supply fundamentals

CALGARY AREA

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average




The dramatic scaling back of single-detached home starts contributed to

a steady decline in the number of units under construction since 2015 to

historically low levels.

Such subdued levels of construction pose minimal risks of destabilizing

the market.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Long-term average




After reaching very high levels in 2014 and 2015, there has been a sharp

drop in the number of units under construction moderation on the multi-

unit side of the market in 2016. Much of the wave of condo starts in 2014

has now exited the construction ‘pipeline’.

Current levels therefore signal a return to a more subdued pace of condo

completions in the period ahead, which is good news considering the

state of oversupply at present in this segment of the market.

Sharp drops in condo apartment starts in 2015 (down 15%) and 2016

(down 36%) suggest that further moderation is likely ahead.

The material contained in this report is the property of Royal Bank of Canada and may not be reproduced in any way, in whole or in part, without express authoriza-

tion of the copyright holder in writing. The statements and statistics contained herein have been prepared by RBC Economics Research based on information from

sources considered to be reliable. We make no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy or completeness. This publication is for the infor-

mation of investors and business persons and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy securities.

®Registered trademark of Royal Bank of Canada.

©Royal Bank of Canada.

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