Università degli Studi di Sassari Architettura ad Alghero

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures

of tourism in Alghero

Cristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

Abstract

The tip of the iceberg is a small evident part or aspect of something largelyhidden, and the knowledge of tourism is like this tip.

The official data just make a picture of emerged part, but what is thesubmerged one?

The aim is to illustrate methodologies and issues relevant for tourism ingeneral and replicable in other situations.

We try to assess the submerged size of the tourism phenomenon both onthe supply side (specifically the size of the receptive target) and on thedemand side (the actual number of attendances).

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

Introduction

Tourism is one of the most important tools of territorial transformation, andits effects open a huge field of research both in quantitative and qualitativedimensions.

The majority of official investigation are quantitative, and partials, justshowing the tip of the iceberg.

Arrivals and presences don’t concern only the tourists: they include peoplethat stay for work, for doctor visits, to meet family and friends, spending anight waiting for a flight, and all other possible reasons that can push aperson to pass at least one night in an accommodation.

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

Introduction

Architecture at Alghero has in last seven years an observatory of tourism.

Since 2005 for each year we produced a report that studies the touristprocesses in Alghero and the Province of Sassari.

The report is divided in two parts:- a standard part, useful to "investigate" and evaluate tourism dimensionstrough the time;-a special investigation, different for each year, aimed to investigate specificissues

Today we speak about the standard part, where we try to measure thesubmerged part of the tourism

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

The tip of the iceberg: "official" tourism in Alghero

Official statistics are related to hotel facilities and extra-hotel structures orcomplementary receptive exercises

2010: few B&B and farm holidays registered.

The figure for non-hotel facilities is almost totally related to campsites andhostels, losing a significant portion of the overall size

The consistency of the accommodation in Alghero39 official hotels 6.601 beds

252 complementary exercises 6.078 beds291 total exercises 12.679 beds

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

The tip of the iceberg: "official" tourism in Alghero

5 STELLE E 5 STELLE

LUSSO

274

2% 4 STELLE

3.261

26%

3 STELLE

2.146

17%1 STELLA

18

0%

Residenze Turistico

Alberghiere

902

7%

Campeggi e Villaggi turistici

3.990

32%

Alloggi in affitto

563

4%

Alloggi agro-turistici e

Country-Houses

343

3% Ostelli per la

Gioventù

117

1%

Case per ferie

136

1%

Bed & Breakfast

929

7%

Disponibilità posti letto 5 STELLE E 5 STELLE LUSSO

4 STELLE

3 STELLE

1 STELLA

Residenze Turistico Alberghiere

Campeggi e Villaggi turistici

Alloggi in affitto

Alloggi agro-turistici e Country-

Houses Ostelli per la Gioventù

Case per ferie

Bed & Breakfast

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

The tip of the iceberg: "official" tourism in Alghero

Month

Arrivals

Year Var 2009-2010

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 %

Jan 3.377 3.435 3.340 4.123 2.940 2.649 -291 -9,90%

Feb 4.365 3.975 4.565 5.580 2.938 2.983 45 1,53%

Mar 10.375 5.560 8.255 10.887 6.315 6.057 -258 -4,09%

Apr 16.721 18.899 20.706 18.722 19.977 14.966 -5.011 -25,08%

May 28.081 28.437 28.742 30.673 28.154 25.906 -2.248 -7,98%

Jun 33.932 32.387 35.334 32.909 32.823 32.752 -71 -0,22%

Jul 32.950 29.510 33.304 36.811 37.827 35.717 -2.110 -5,58%

Aug 36.110 32.945 36.905 41.846 42.171 38.729 -3.442 -8,16%

Sep 31.312 26.266 36.583 34.225 37.126 31.467 -5.659 -15,24%

Oct 11.419 10.676 15.991 15.004 15.622 14.572 -1.050 -6,72%

Nov 3.639 4.117 5.872 4.153 3.061 3.604 543 17,74%

Dec 4.242 3.258 4.157 4.587 3.189 3.470 281 8,81%

Total 216.523 199.465 233.754 239.520 232.143 212.872 -19.271 -8,30%

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

The tip of the iceberg: "official" tourism in Alghero

Month

Presences

Year Var 2009-2010

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 %

Jan 7.477 6.355 5.934 7.084 5.126 5.119 -7 -0,14%

Feb 8.391 7.901 8.571 10.582 4.701 5.452 751 15,98%

Mar 30.577 14.214 18.435 25.613 13.108 12.295 -813 -6,20%

Apr 36.584 56.672 50.036 46.935 44.972 35.773 -9.199 -20,45%

May 82.216 87.356 86.788 90.179 75.984 74.825 -1.159 -1,53%

Jun 151.722 151.919 142.527 149.863 131.337 130.190 -1.147 -0,87%

Jul 183.333 163.747 170.743 201.392 192.887 189.145 -3.742 -1,94%

Aug 218.366 204.325 197.785 218.730 214.981 216.190 1.209 0,56%

Sep 136.051 112.530 145.228 146.286 143.501 135.217 -8.284 -5,77%

Oct 36.702 32.819 50.315 42.722 52.252 50.375 -1.877 -3,59%

Nov 7.613 7.761 10.962 7.103 4.681 6.682 2.001 42,75%

Dec 7.514 6.335 7.399 7.606 4.867 5.565 698 14,34%

Total 906.546 851.934 894.723 954.095 888.397 866.828 -21.569 -2,43%

Around the 15th of August we have the presence of 12.000 people.

In media, the presences recorded in August are about equivalent to 1/6 ofresident population - 40.800 (216.000/31≈7000)

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

The underwater part: unofficial tourism in Alghero

As in most European tourist destinations, alongside the official offer there isa market of houses not occupied by residents and available for temporaryuses.

The available statistic data does not provides data about these so-called"second houses". The lack is double, namely we do not know neither theirnumber, nor what is the flow of people during the year in this type ofaccommodations.

To estimate the number of houses available for temporary uses, we usedtwo indirect indicators: the number of ENEL contracts for electricity supplyfor domestic use and the ICI (Municipality Property Tax).

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

The underwater part: unofficial tourism in Alghero

Year Residents

(by ISTAT)

Resident’s

contracts

Non-resident’s

contracts

Total

contracts

2005 40.320 17.472 7.438 24.910

2006 40.400 18.460 8.020 26.480

2007 40.700 18.951 8.602 27.552

Contracts for electricity supply for domestic uses

Year Residents

(by ISTAT)

Total energy

supply contracts

Houses of real

residents (Res/2,7)

Available Houses

(Ut.Att-Ab.occ)

2005 40.320 24.910 14.933 9.977

2006 40.400 26.480 14.963 11.517

2007 40.700 27.552 15.074 12.352

Active ENEL contracts 2005 - 2007, ENEL data

ENEL contracts for electricity supply

But there is a phenomenon that regards “absent residents”, people who, essentially for tax reasons, reside in a city, but actually live elsewhere. To try to assess how many houses were used by real residents, we referenced to the 2001 ISTAT Census that recorded that we have 2,7 permanent residents per residential unit.

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

The underwater part: unofficial tourism in Alghero

We tried to estimate the accommodation capacity (number of beds)considering the following extreme situations:

- Assign to the second houses the same density of the resident population(2,7 inh/RU)- Assign for each RU available 2 beds for each room useful. The reference istherefore of 2.4 rooms per unit

ICI Data

YEAR Beds Range

Same density of residents

(2,7 inh/RU*n°RU avai)

2 beds per avaible room

(2,4 roo/RU*n°Ru avai*2)

2005 26.937 47.888

2006 31.096 55.282

2007 33.691 59.895

YearICI second Houses

+ absent residents

Beds Range

Same density of residents

(2,7 inh/RU*n°RU avai)

2 beds per avaible room

(2,4 roo/RU*n°Ru avai*2)

2009 14.150 38.205 67.920

Number of beds in houses not occupied by residents

Number of beds in houses not occupied by residents

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

We have an official accommodation capacity of 12.679 beds

and

an unofficial capacity that of (at least) 33.691 beds

The proportion is (at least) of 1:3!!!!

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

Indirect measure of the presence

Production of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)

This is a useful indicator to assess the total number of presences. Thesedata register residents, tourists, excursionists and persons who are in thecity and produce waste.

GennaioFebbraio Marzo Aprile Maggio Giugno Luglio AgostoSettembreOttobreNovembreDicembre

Popolazione residente 40802 40811 40823 40841 40862 40865 40871 40888 40914 40947 40969 40970

umido 40794 40410 46769 48958 46543 52046 53002 82594 47354 41926 40568 41782

vetro 42669 24266 41422 41145 46952 69277 75915 88263 74820 47201 35089 44374

carta 41101 43233 47875 48301 44985 54269 55015 57869 53274 41658 40699 38508

Totale RD 40902 41391 47154 48731 46004 52819 53702 74019 49409 41838 40614 40643

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

Stima popolazione presente base produzione rif iuti dif ferenziati

Popolazione residente

umido

vetro

carta

Totale RD

Estimate of present population based on the production of separated waste

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

Indirect measure of the presence

Production of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)

41760

39649

4462848803

50096

60257

72259

79398

58624

46641

41616

4052740902

41391

47154 48731

46004

5281953702

74019

49409

4183840614 40643

41651

39898

46201 49554

49195

58059

65849

74503

56460

4633742447

40473

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

Gennaio Febbraio Marzo Aprile Maggio Giugno Luglio Agosto Settembre Ottobre Novembre Dicembre

popolazione rif iuti

R.S.U.

Totale RD

Totale raccolte

Comparison of estimated population over waste differentiated and undifferentiated

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

Indirect measure of the presence

Production of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)

Gennaio Febbraio Marzo Aprile Maggio Giugno Luglio Agosto Settembre Ottobre Novembre Dicembre

Totale raccolte 41651 39898 46201 49554 49195 58059 65849 74503 56460 46337 42447 40473

Popolazione residente 40802 40811 40823 40841 40862 40865 40871 40888 40914 40947 40969 40970

4165139898

46201

49554 49195

58059

65849

74503

56460

46337

4244740473

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

Stima popolazione presente base produzione rif iuti

Estimation of present population

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

Indirect measure of the presence

Consumption of bread

The second indirect indicator used to calculate the tourist presences is theconsumption of bread in the various months of the year. The estimateassumes that the consumption per capita is constant during all seasons.

42.62139.721

45.958 46.200 46.651

53.228

72.104

87.083

53.201

44.466

39.86541.675

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

100.000

Stima ab base pane

2010

Estimated present population based on the consumption of bread

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

Indirect measure of the presence

A comparison

Population estimate based on indirect indicators

GENNAIO FEBBRAIO MARZO APRILE MAGGIO GIUGNO LUGLIO AGOSTO SETTEMBRE OTTOBRE NOVEMBRE DICEMBRE

Vendite Pane 42.621 39.721 45.958 46.200 46.651 53.228 72.104 87.083 53.201 44.466 39.865 41.675

Totale rifiuti 41.651 39.898 46.201 49.554 49.195 58.059 65.849 74.503 56.460 46.337 42.447 40.473

Media 42.136 39.809 46.080 47.877 47.923 55.643 68.977 80.793 54.830 45.401 41.156 41.074

41.65139.898

46.201

49.554 49.195

58.059

65.849

74.503

56.460

46.337

42.44740.473

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

100.000

Confronto indicatori di presenza indiretta

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

The data leads to 3,7 million presences every year, including officialtourists, unofficial ones, excursionists, commuters, students, off-siteworkers, etc: about a fifth of the population of Alghero is not resident.

The key management problem is that the distribution is not homogeneous.

For the months of January, February, November and December we have justthe residents.

In April, May and October on average we have 10.000 more inhabitants.In June and September the inhabitants amounted to more than 17.000 (i.e.40% more than the residents).In July, they are 25.000 (62.5% more), and in August we have the peak of34.000 units more (85% more), we are close to the doubling of the city.

Close to the 15th of August, the city really duplicate its inhabitants.

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

Conclusions

The official data show us just the tip of the iceberg.

We attempted to discover the dimensions of the underwater part of thetourism, in particular investigating the offer of accommodation in secondhomes and the presences in general.

In the case of Alghero the proportion of presences not recorded isanalogous to that of the receptive offer i.e. of 3:1.

We verified that there is a housing stock that can host (minimum) 36.000people against the 12.000 official beds and about 3.7 million of effectivepresences against the 900 thousand registered.

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

Conclusions

The tip represents just a quarter ofthe iceberg!

The results are specific, but themethodology can be easilyreplicated in other tourist places.

The difficulty is to find the rightindirect measure of presences. Infact not always there are availabledata to describe the universe. Inthese cases the better way ofinvestigation is a specific survey.

However for a more completepicture of the tourism reality wehave to relate our investigations tothe qualitative dimensions oftourism too.

The tip of the iceberg Tests of indirect measures of tourism in AlgheroCristian Cannaos and Giuseppe Onni

Conclusions

Be careful:to fully understand the effects ofthe impact it is interesting to knowhow great is the iceberg, but wealso need to understand how and ofwhat is done.

Thank youfor yourattention