Car of the Future
Personal Mobility Solutions by 2035
Tom De VleesschauwerAssociate Director
Consulting
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Introduction
• The Day After Tomorrow
– Why?
– What?
• Product and Market Defined
• Drivers for Future Mobility Solutions
• Scenario Based Foresight
• What Could the Impact Be?
• Conclusions
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Three Billion Vehicles by 2035! That is Only Three Major Vehicle Updates Away…
• If our current model of mobility is maintained, there will be three billion vehicles on the roads of the world by 2035
• Imagine what this world will be like, considering the mobility challenges we face today when there are only 800 million vehicles in-use globally
• Imagine what your business will be like?
Just Imagine!
1) Gott, Philip; Is Mobility As We Know It Sustainable? International Automotive Mobility Forum, 2008, Geneva, Switzerland
…It is Only the Day After Tomorrow!
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Gridlock!
Mobility
is out
of control
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Why? Just Imagine the Day After Tomorrow!
• What will we drive if there are three billion motor vehicles on the roads of the world in 2035?
• If most of us live in cities by then (already over 50% of us do), will we use public transportation in the city and buy bigger cars (or SUVs!) for weekend journeys?
• Will we own cars or just borrow them from car-sharing fleets when we need one?
• Will regulators allow such a massive number of vehicles or will there be measures taken to reduce vehicle ownership and use?
• How will mobility solutions evolve and what are the implications for the car and the way it is marketed, sold, and even owned?
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
What? The Day After Tomorrow
• So what can we do to prepare ourselves for the day after tomorrow?
– Understand the product and its usage/function
– Understand the market
– Understand what drives the world around us
• Foresight versus forecast
– Scenario: a tool of foresight
• Not a guess of the exact future
• Future roots in today’s trends and weak signals
• An array of possible futures
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
What is an ‘Acceptable’ Vehicle Today/Tomorrow?
• Slowly, society has come to accept that ‘oversized’ vehicles are morally not acceptable
• So is the January 2008 launch of the TATA Nano an indication of the ‘acceptable’ future?
• Or do we face moral concerns regarding the launch of a very low-cost car onto a market of one billion people?
• Is there a single global solution?
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Markets Defined by the Wealth-Motorization Curve
• Mature markets– Very wealthy– Established industry– Motorization rate leveling off
• Growth markets– Wealth is building– Growing local industry– Rate of motorization is
increasing rapidly as a function of wealth
• Emerging markets– Breaking the $5,000 per capita
threshold– Indigenous industry just
beginning to emerge– Motorization will
increase rapidly
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Vehicle Density vs. Income(for 2002 and 2007)
Singapore
Hong Kong
United States
W. Europe & Japan
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Drivers for Future Global Mobility Solutions
1. Economy/Per Capita Income
2. Population
3. Wealth Distribution
4. Oil Prices
5. World CO2 Regulations
6. Values
7. IT/Technology Use
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Drivers for Future Global Mobility Solutions
• Market Dependant Mobility Solution Drivers
1. Energy
2. Attitudes (Resource Conservation)
3. Mobility Regulations
4. Lifestyle
5. Free-Time
6. LD Infrastructures
7. Local Infrastructures
8. Technology and Safety
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
What Could the Impact be?
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Let’s Look Ahead to the Day After Tomorrow
2030
20102008
2025
2015
Disruptive
Business As
Expected
Cornutopia
Market TypeMobility Drivers
• Scenario Based Foresight
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Scenario: Business as Expected
• Keywords: No Change, On and On…
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Scenario: Business as Expected
• Economic growth follows oil prices with ups and downs until the world’s different regions have developed their own complementary alternative energy solutions
• All countries in the world agree to reduce greenhouse emissions, but only those without large fossil resources do engage themselves in a precise reduction target
• Environment and sustainable development is a major issue, but most people in emerging and growth markets still dream of a nice house and a beautiful car, just like in
the movies
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
What Could the Impact be?
• Business as expected
– Renault eco2 – Citroen Airdream
– London congestion charging
– Continuation of the same, with little breakthrough
• Evolutionary (carry-over)
• Some intelligence
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Scenario: Cornutopia
• Keywords: Responsibility (People and Corporate)
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Scenario: Cornutopia
• Surging oil prices have boosted the world’s understanding that this planet has limited resources and that we must all find a more sustainable model of development to allow mankind to live in a decent way
• Social networking due to fast developing IT/technology and world media increases awareness, first in mature markets, then emerging and growth markets, about sustainable development
• Responsibility to save the planet’s resources and to maintain social peace by a more even distribution of revenues. This applies to individuals as well as corporations
• Sustained wealth growth with a decreasing energy intensity per capita speeds up urbanization and demographic transition
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
What Could the Impact be?
• Cornutopia
– Venturi / Think
– Car sharing / club
• Velib/Auto
– Advanced evolution for the greater good
• Technology
• Alternatives
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Scenario: Disruptive
• Keywords: Security Control
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Scenario: Disruptive
• The world is exposed to a recession, more political tension, and risk of war. This forces a political answer to control mobility by mandatory means
• Forced optimisation of daily tasks/habits allow people and corporations to save resources
• Necessity to mitigate mobility
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
What Could the Impact be?
• Disruptive
– Better place
– Pay as you drive
– Forced revolution
• Accident free
• Mobility solution ≠ Car
• Intelligent, integrated
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Conclusions
• Is mobility as we know it sustainable?
– Clearly, the answer to this is “no”
• Instead, the global model of mobility will need to change to embrace all possible solutions and more
– A holistic approach must adopt political, market, regulatory, and fiscal measures to develop our current model towards one that minimizes the fundamental energy intensity of personal and goods transport
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Conclusions
• What we must do is view the current regulatory standards for the next decade as the first steps, not the final objective!
– These are the foundation upon which we can build a new era of mobility
• The challenge before us is to recognize on a global scale that these are the necessary choices and to act soon enough
– We need to ensure that the transition to this holistic approach is managed as an opportunity rather than reacted to as a crisis
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Conclusions
• Out of our three scenarios, at first it appears that disruptive is the ‘bad’ one, but is it?
• Business As Expected
• Cornutopia
• Disruptive
• These are just scenarios—the truth lies somewhere in the middle—but one thing will be true:
– Cars might be perceived as a problem now but let’s treat cars like a possible solution…
Copyright © 2008 Global Insight, Inc. GLOBAL AUTOMOTIVE CONFERENCE
Finally…
• Have we lost our ability to ‘dream’?
• We need more visionaries!
– The predictions of Jules Verne prove to have been astutely correct
• The man who invented the future?
– One European OEM has a ‘DREAM’ department
– Project Better Place (Mr. Shai Agassi)
Thank You!
Tom De VleesschauwerAssociate Director
Presentations are available for download at:www.globalinsight.com/events/GAC2008Paris