State, Public Policies and Trust

in Latin America.

María Cecilia Güemes

Madrid, July 10, 2012

Source:www.cartoonstock.com

Main questions:

Can the State promote trust?

In which ways do public policies

influence the creation of trust?

What is trust?

Belief-Attitude Rational perception

Context

Institutions trust Experiences + images +

How do State and Public Policies promote trust ?

Enforcement Welfare

Government

Effectiveness

equality

+

images about us

+

oportunities to meet

with others

+

THEORY

Cognitive inferences about society and the “others”

HYPOTHESES

H 1: High levels of Government effectiveness increase

the probability of Trust.

H 2: High levels of Institutional Trust increase the

probability of Trust.

H 3: Social Equity increases the probability of Trust.

H 4: Further development of the Welfare System

increases the probability of Trust.

Methodology

Part 1: Looking for explanations

Focus on: Latin America (18 countries)

Multinivel Model

Part 2: Looking for interpretations

Focus on: Argentina. Neoliberalism

Case Study

Part I Multilevel Model Variables

VD: Trust Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you need to be very careful in dealing with people? 0=no trust, 1=trust

Independents Variables, Individual Level: Source Latinobarometro, 2008 Trust in the Police

0=No trust 1= Little Trust 2= Some Trust 3=A lot of Trust

Trust in Courts

Trust in Civil Service

Trust in Congress

Optimism on the future Respect to your children, do you think that they will live better, the same or worse than you live today? 0=Better, 1=as I, 2=worse

Ideology: Left-right wing Scale 0=left, 10=right Catholics 0=no, 1=yes

Participation in Associations 0=for those who claim to be inactive members or do not belong to any voluntary organization, 1=those who claim to be active members of at least one voluntary organization

Civic Activism Taking part in authorized demostration 0=no, 1=si

Feeling of Insecurity Living in your country is safer or unsafer each day 0=more safe, 1=as safe, 2=unsafer

Perception of equality Just and Fair distribution of wealth :0= not guaranteed at all ,1=little guaranteed, 2=fair guaranteed, 3= completely guaranteed

Age genre 0=male, 1=female

education 0=illiterate, 1= incomplete primary 2= complete primary, 3= incomplete secondary, 4= complete secondary, 5=incomplete high, 6= complete high

Independents Variables, Country Level

Government Effectiviness WB, 2007 Social Public Spending (%GDP) CEPAL, 2005- 2006 Income Inequality –Gini Index CEPAL, 2007 GDP per capita FMI, 2006

Results

Null Model Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4

Optimism on the future

***Significant at 99% **Significant at 95% * Significant at 90%

Findings of the Multilevel

• H 1: Government Effectiviness is NOT significant

• H 2: Trust in the Police and Courts are NOT significant

(and the sign is negative!) Trust in Congress is significant

and positive

• H 3: Inequality is NOT significant

• H 4: Social Public Spending is NOT significant (and the

sign is negative!)

• Other results:

• Percepcion of equality is significant and positive

• Education is NOT significant (and the sign is negative!)

• Participation in Associations and Civic Activism are not

significant

.2.2

5.3

.35

marg

pro

b

0 .5 1 1.5 2n1 sensación de inseguridad

Greater

than 30%

Probability of trust by insecurity feeling

Insecurity feeling

.15

.2.2

5.3

.35

marg

pro

b1

0 1 2 3n1 justa distribución de la riqueza

Greater

than 30%

Probability of trust by equality perception

Equality Perception

Latin America´ perception of trust?

I trust

You trust

He trusts

We trust

They trust…

What a bunch of naive people!

Isn´t it?