CCCCeeeennnnttttrrrreeee ffffoooorrrr SSSScccciiiieeeennnncccceeee aaaannnndddd EEEEnnnnvvvviiiirrrroooonnnnmmmmeeeennnntttt
NNNNeeeewwww DDDDeeeellllhhhhiiii,,,, OOOOccccttttoooobbbbeeeerrrr 22225555,,,, 2222000000001111
Presentation to the committee on auto fuel policy
§ Your committee has been set up because of anenvironmental imperative. It is not an oilministry committee (or oil industry) but anenvironmental ministry committee.
§ You need to determine fuel quality and autoemission targets needed to meet air qualitytargets.
§ National standards can be minimum requirement.Need stringent standards and measures forcritically polluted areas (not just metros) tomeet the ambient air quality standards.
Your objective as we see it.
Foul air and sicknessA study carried out at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences over 1997 and 1998
clearly shows that with an increase in levels of particulate pollution, more peoplesuffer from cardiorespiratory diseases, particularly from October to December
Source: J N Pande 1998, Outdoor Air Pollution and Emergency Room Visits at a Hospital in Delhi, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, mimeo
Deadly costs of air pollution. Poor health for all.M
onth
ly a
vera
ge le
vel o
f TS
PM
(m
icro
gram
me
per
cubi
c m
etre
)N
umber of cardiorespiratory patients visiting hospital
486 479
412 407
473
362
283306 316
442
510
436
494
413348
432
509
376
258
310269
448
527
728
317243
346
509
351443
700
391 403
636
954
1,135
293
452 456 450539
448
688
405 390
1,015
1,725
2,473
0
500
1000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Number of cardiorespiratory patients visiting hospital
Monthly average level of TSPM (microgramme per cubic metre)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Vehicles contribution growing. Slow Murder.
CPCB data shows that many cities are worsethan Delhi as far as particulate pollution isconcerned. In 31 cities monitored, SPM levels haverecorded critical levels, that is, 1.5 times the standards.Worse RSPM levels are increasing and are much abovestandards in many cities.
According to WHO there is no safe level forparticulate pollution. From a health point of view nostandard can be defined.
Identify pollution hotspots in the country
Air pollution is growing. Not just in metros.
Reaching critical levels
75114South
25411East
181524West
121114North
Moderate(between 70-140microgrammes percubic metre)
High Pollution(between 140-210microgrammesper cubic metre)
Critical Pollution(above 210microgrammesper cubic metre)
Number of cities withNumber ofcitiesmonitored
Zones
Source: Calculated on the basis of CPCB data
Number of cities with high levels of pollution in India: SPM
SO2 levels are still low. In 23 cities SO2 levels are just abovethe national standards. But SO2 contributes to formation of moredeadly sulphate particles. Needs controls.
NOx levels are also low but steadily rising in many cities.About 21 cities in the country have recorded NOx levels abovethe national standards. This pollutant plays a catalytic role information of yet another serious pollutant Ð ozone.
Worse, many air toxins not even monitored. Benzene,Ozone, Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon.
Both CPCB and DPCC monitoring in Delhi shows benzenelevels are already alarmingly high. According to WHO, nosafe level for benzene.
Growing pollution. Many pollutants not even measured
Why controlling air pollution needs hard action
¥ We have large numbers of old vehicles with very poornorms on the road today. We cannot get rid of themfast. The option is to phase in much better vehicles asfast as possible. The incremental option is not for us.
§ Till 1991 there were no emission norms. The 1996 norms were Euro-0norms. Even in Delhi, which has age restriction on commercialvehicles the oldest fleet will conform to Euro-0 emission norms in2011 and Euro 1 norms in 2015.
2. Private vehicle numbers are growing by leaps. We aremaking no serious investment in public transport. Orin restricting private vehicles Ê
Ê
Need to phase in new standards fast.
Share of old vehicles in the current fleet: Delhi 2001
Euro 1 vehicles constitute only 13-18 per cent of the vehicles on the road (except autos)
18.6
4
39.2
5
18.1
6
28.4
7
29.0
0 33.3
9
28.3
9
22.7
2
23.4
7
10.8
8
23.4
9
23.8
7
35.0
0
24.6
0
45.0
6
10.4
2
32.2
3
29.1
0
17.9
7
13.4
4
13.3
1
50.2
3
15.2
8
13.6
4
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
buses trucks taxis autos cars 2-wheel
Type of vehicle
Pe
rce
nta
ge
sh
are
1987-91(No emission norm)
1992-95 (1992 emission norm)
1996-99 (Euro 0 emission norm)
2000-20001 (Bharat stage I emissionnorm)
Source: Calculations based on data provided by State Transport Authority, Delhi
Why the incremental approach will not work: largenumbers of vehicles and growing fast
Increase in number of vehicles: Delhi
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Year
Nu
mb
er o
f cars,
tru
ck
s,
bu
ses,
au
tos,
tax
is
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
Nu
mb
er o
f tw
o-w
heele
rs
buses trucks taxis autos cars 2 wheel
Source: calculations based on STA data
Share of private vehicles increasing. No efforts tocontrol or restrict numbers.
93.2
5.0
1.8
94.3
4.5
1.2
95.0
3.9
1.1
96.2
3.2
0.6
88.0
90.0
92.0
94.0
96.0
98.0
100.0
Per
cen
tag
e sh
are
1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Share of public and private passenger modes in Delhi
Buses
Taxis and 3-wheelers
Cars and 2-wheelers
Why incremental approaches will not workÉ.
3. All our cities have mixed fleets. We need a strategy
for each pollutant and for each vehicle type.
For instance: Delhi we have achieved:
¥ Improvements in emission norms for private vehicles; 5 year
advancement.
¥ Restricting numbers and improvement in emission norms for autos;
¥ Restricting age limit and increasing numbers of public transport vehicles
and improvement in their emission norms;
But still need drastic action to control pollution from:
¥ Trucks;
¥ Two-wheelers.
CSE EMISSON MODEL: PM
Trend in emission of particulate matter from different vehicles
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1 9 9 92 0 0 02 0 0 12 0 0 22 0 0 32 0 0 42 0 0 52 0 0 62 0 0 72 0 0 82 0 0 92 0 1 02 0 1 12 0 1 22 0 1 32 0 1 42 0 1 5
Em
issi
on i
n to
nnes
per
yea
r
2 Wheelers
Trucks
Taxis
Buses
Autos
Cars
CSE EMISSION MODEL: hydrocarbons
Trend in emission of hydrocarbons from different vehicles
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1 9 9 92 0 0 02 0 0 12 0 0 22 0 0 32 0 0 42 0 0 52 0 0 62 0 0 72 0 0 82 0 0 92 0 1 02 0 1 12 0 1 22 0 1 32 0 1 42 0 1 5E
mis
sio
n i
n t
on
ne
s p
er
ye
ar
2 Wheelers
Trucks
Taxis
Buses
Au tos
Cars
CSE EMISSION MODEL: NOx
Trend in emission of nitrogen oxides from different vehicles
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15E
mis
sio
n
in
ton
ne
s
pe
r ye
ar
2 Wheelers
Trucks
Taxis
Buses
Autos
Cars
Problems in managing air pollution
4. There is no national action plan to deal with air
pollution. Air pollution law is also very weak.
No punitive actions for state governments for
not meeting the ambient air quality norms.
In the US, the clean air act forces the federal government to intervene in
case regional air quality standards cannot be met and federal
government can penalise state governments by restricting federal aid
for roads, etc.
IIIInnnn IIIInnnnddddiiiiaaaa,,,, aaaaiiiirrrr ppppoooolllllllluuuuttttiiiioooonnnn iiiissss uuuunnnncccchhhheeeecccckkkkeeeedddd
ttttiiiillllllll tttthhhheeee ccccoooouuuurrrrttttssss iiiinnnntttteeeerrrrvvvveeeennnneeee....
Problems in controlling air pollution
5. Current and even future fuel quality norms arepoor. No push to automakers to improve technology.They can and must. But buck-passing continues.
Court action in Delhi has set an important precedent:National standards are a minimum requirement. Specialstandards can be designed for more polluted hotspots likeDelhi.
The proposed fuel norms under consideration for 2005 are atbest by the governmentÕs own admission, close to only EuroII fuel standards (European standards of 1996).
Fuel quality norms: current and proposed will keep usbehind technology.
TREND IN FUEL QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS IN INDIA SINCE 1996The fuel standards that the Indian government is proposing to meet 2005 aims to bring Indian fuel
quality close to only Euro II fuel standards. This will keep India 10 years behind time
Environment India Fuel Recommen- World bestrelated fuel 1996-2000 Quality ded for 2005 standardsquality in Delhiparameters (Present)
PPPPEEEETTTTRRRROOOOLLLLBenzene (v%) 3-5 1.0 1.0 1.0 (California
present)
AAAArrrroooommmmaaaattttiiiiccccssss ((((vvvv%%%%)))) Not Not 45 25 (Californiaspecified specified present)
Sulphur (ppm) 2000 500 300 50 ppm by 2004(California)
Oxygen wt % max 2.7 2.7 2.0 Get rid of requirement*
Olefins vol % Not Not 18 6 (Californiaspecified specified present)
Lead 0.013 0.005*Chose safe oxygenate or opt for other refining methods
Fuel qualityÉ.
TREND IN FUEL QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS IN INDIA SINCE 1996The fuel standards that the Indian government is proposing to meet 2005 aims to bring Indian fuel
quality close to only Euro II fuel standards. This will keep India 10 years behind time
Environment India Fuel Recommen- World bestrelated fuel 1996-2000 Quality ded 2005 standardsquality in Delhiparameters (Present)
DDDDIIIIEEEESSSSEEEELLLL
SSSSuuuullllpppphhhhuuuurrrr ((((ppppppppmmmm)))) 10000 500 500 10 (Swedish(2500) Class I
diesel)
Cetane number 42 48 50 50 (EU)
PPPPoooollllyyyyccccyyyycccclllliiiicccc
aaaarrrroooommmmaaaattttiiiiccccssss ((((wwwwtttt %%%%)))) Not Not 10 0.12 % by specified specified volume
(Swedish Class Idiesel)
Source: Anon, 2001, Transport fuel quality for year 2005, Central Pollution Control Board, December
Auto fuel strategy is critical.
Need to address the concerns of toxic effects of fuelsand to promote synergy of fuel and vehiculartechnology.
Objective of any fuel quality improvement programme willhave to be:§ Lowering the toxic effect of emissions,
§ Enable application of more advanced vehicle technology,
§ Enable application of advanced after-treatment systems.
Health impact of different fuels needs to beconsidered.
The cancer index...It is possible to quantify toxic risks from different emission sources and
capture it in a cancer index to rate emissions and fuels
Can
cer
risk
ind
ex (
pet
rol =
100
)
100
5546
19
235
Petrol Ethanol Methanol Methane (CNG) Diesel
Particulates Benzene Alkenes Aldehydes PAC
250
200
150
100
50
0
Spark Ignition Engines
CompressionIgnition Engine
Cancer risk factors according to Swedish standards
Source: Peter Ahlvik and Ake Brandberg 1999, Cancer Risk Index for Passenger Cars in India, Ecotraffic R&D AB, STockholm, Sweden
Auto fuels: public health concerns with fuelsÉ.petrol
Key concerns in petrolzVery high level of benzene emissions:
We have weak standards for benzene and none for total aromatics inpetrol. Fuel specifications notified in 1997 mandated benzene level of 5 per cent forthe country and 3 percent for metros from 2000 onwards. The Supreme court hasrecently ordered lowering benzene supplied to Delhi to 1 percent. But there is still nocap on total aromatic content.
High benzene levels found in Delhi. Problem in other cities as well. We havelarge numbers of two-stroke engines with high level of unburnedhydrocarbons and other vehicles without cat convertors.
zHarmful effects of oxygenates: If oxygenates are added to petrol tokeep the benzene and total aromatics content as low as possible, if notselected judiciously could also create public health and environmentalproblems.
Fuels: issues and concernsÉ. MTBE
z An oxygen content of 2.7 per cent has been permitted in
India without specifying the acceptable oxygenates.
Refineries are going in for MTBE without taking note of
the harm that this has caused to the environment in
countries where this has been widely used.
z MTBE is recognised as a major groundwater
contaminant. Its health concerns are growing. But more
importantly the water becomes undrinkable.
z Over 90 per cent of Indian drinkingwater depends on groundwater. Can we
afford to take the risk?
Concerns in fuelsÉÉtotal aromatics
zNeed to limit total aromatics and benzene in any petrolreformulation programme.
zThe total aromatics content in Indian unleaded petrol is reported to beas high as 48 percent. Even if the benzene content is controlled at1 percent, benzene emission will still be high. Combustion ofother aromatics such as toluene and xylene produces benzene.Therefore, worldwide efforts are on to lower both benzene andtotal aromatics in the petrol at the same time.
zAccording to WHO, reduction of aromatics from 45 percent to 20percent can lead to 42 per cent reduction in benzene emissions(Dieter Schwela and Olivier Zali (ed.) 1999, Urban Traffic Pollution, World Health Organisation, Geneva,p139).
Concerns with fuel: diesel
§ Sulphur levels§ Polycyclic aromatic content
Sulphur levelsBest diesel by itself does not reduce particulate andother toxic emissions if used in existing or evenimproved engine technologies.
But lowering sulphur levels allows the use of after-treatment systems like particulate traps and thenbecomes effective in controlling emissions.
Lowering sulphur content does not reduce emissionsper se.
10085
0
25
50
75
100
EC 3 EC 1
Differences in emissions from Swedish buses using EC1 and EC3
diesel. Moving from 3000 ppm sulphur diesel (like most of
India) to the best diesel of 10 ppm sulphur diesel gives you amere 15 per cent reduction.
Note: EC 3 diesel Ð sulphur content of 3000 ppm and no limit on polycyclic aromatic
hydrocarbons
(PAH) content EC 1 diesel Ð sulphur content of 10 ppm and PAH content of 0.02 per cent.
Source: Anon 1998, Ecotraffic, Sweden, mimeo
But controls on PAH leads to major gains in reductionof toxicity of diesel.
Di fference in emissi o ns from Swedish buses using 3000 ppm sul phur and 10 ppm sul p hur diesel wi th controls on PAH. An
85 per cent reducti o n in toxi ci ty100%100%100%
13%12%
46%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
PAH Ames test TCDD ActivityEC3 EC1 EC1EC3 EC3 EC1
Note: EC1 Ð Environmental class 1 diesel EC3 - Environmental class 3 diesel
Ames Test and TCDD Activity Ð a measure of mutagenicity (that is, the
potential to disrupt the genetic set up of humans)
Source: Anon 1998, Ecotraffic, Sweden, mimeo.
Diesel: sulphur content and emissions
IMPACT OF REDUCING SULPHUR ON EMISSIONSTests done all across the world show small decrease in particulate
emissions even with large reduction in sulphur content of diesel
Country Reduction in diesel Reduction in sulphur content particulate emissions
European Auto Oil Programme From 300 ppm to 30 ppm 9 per cent
Study by US-based Southwest From 300 ppm to 10 ppm 21.6 per cent Research Institute Number of particles
larger than 0.1 micronwent down withreduction in sulphurlevels, but number ofparticles smaller than0.1 micron went up.
Motor Test Centre, Sweden 3000 ppm to 50 ppm 5-12 per cent3000 ppm to 10 ppm 14-22 per cent
Auto fuel policyCSEÕs recommendations
IMPACT OF REDUCING SULPHUR ON EMISSIONSTests done all across the world show small decrease in particulate
emissions even with large reduction in sulphur content of diesel
Country Reduction in diesel Reduction in sulphur content particulate emissions
Hong Kong 355 ppm to 35 ppm 4.4 per cent
New Zealand From 500 ppm to 50 ppm 5.1 per centFrom 350 ppm to 10 ppm. Number of particles
emitted by an Euro Iheavy-duty diesel engineincreasedEuro II diesel engineemitted more particlessmaller than 56nanometre when runningon 10 ppm sulphur dieselthan on 50 ppm sulphurdiesel
Diesel: at what level of sulphur do particulate trapswork? 500 ppm or 30 ppm and less?
Particulate traps do not work in high sulphur fuels.Because of this countries are mandating cuts insulphur levels to phase in state of the art after-treatment system techologies.
EU has mandated maximum sulphur level of 50 ppm by2005. Proposals to introduce 10 ppm sulphur diesel.Sweden, Germany, and UK have already introducedULSD (10-50 ppm sulpfur) in advance through fiscalincentives.
The US has mandated in 2000 that most diesel fuel shouldbe 15 ppm by 2006.
Reducing sulphur in diesel..
Wherever huge investments have been made to get diesel withsulphur content of 10 ppm to 15 ppm, it has come as a package withtechnology Ð very low sulphur and PAH diesel together with goodengines, constantly regenerating traps and de-NOx catalyst.
Fuel sulphur in ppm PM emission in Percentage increase in PMgram per g/bhp-hr emission relative to 3 ppm
sulphur diesel
3 0.003 0
7 0.006 100
15 0.009 200
30 0.017 470
150 0.071 2300
Tier 2 emission Standard (2004-2009) 0.01
Note: PM Ð particulate matter; g/bhp-hr Ð grammes per brakehorsepower-hour; ppm Ð parts per million.All tests done under the supplemental test procedure of the US EPASource: Anon 2000, Regulatory Impact Analysis: Heavy-duty Engine and Vehicle Standards and Highway Diesel Fuel SulphurControl Requirements, United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington DC, December.
The challenge: identify leapfrogging options. Examinealternative fuels as one option
§ Slow incremental process of improving engine and fuelstandards is possible in countries in the forefront of technology.Not in India that is lagging behind by more than 10 years.
§ But making this quantum leap with the help of conventionalfuels is going to be far more expensive than that based on analternative fuel strategy.
§ The Supreme court order of moving the entire publictransport including all taxis, autos and buses to CNG or otherclean fuel in Delhi is the first ever step towards a quantumleap.
Strategies to technology leapfrogging
A KEY QUESTIONDo we have to go through the same stages of environmental management
that the West went through or can we leapfrog?
Pre-Euro I Poor diesel
Euro I Improved diesel
Euro II Natural gasEuro III
HydrogenEuro IV
CNG allows us to advance emission norms by 8 years.Get breathing space.
Year ofimplementation
Particulate matter
Hydrocarbon Ni t rogenox ides
Carbonmonoxide
Euro I 1993 0.4 1.23 9.0 4.9
Euro II 1996 0.15 1.1 7.0 4.0
Euro III 2000 0.10 0.66 5.0 2.1
Euro IV 2005 0.02 0.46 3.5 1.50
Emissions from CNG bus ofAshok Leyland(stoichiometric engine with athree-way catalytic converter)
0.014 0.04 (non-methanehydrocarbon)
3.24 3.12
Note: All figures in gramme per kilowatt-hour
INDIAN TEST RESULTS
Test results from Ashok Leyland shows that a stoichiometric CNG bus fitted with a three-way catalyst is far ahead of a comparable diesel bus. It meets the Euro IV norms for bothparticulate matter and oxides of nitrogen. Even carbon monoxide emission is better thanEuro II norms
Source: R Ramakrishnan 2001, CNG Ð The Clean and Cost-effective Fuel for Delhi Vehicles, mimeo.
Gaseous fuelsÉeliminate adulteration
Gaseous fuels can also eliminate the problem offuel adulteration which is a very serious problemin India.
Even if we get the best quality diesel, we would needstrong regulatory measures to ensure that the fueldoes not get adulterated and the particulate trapsare cleaned and regenerated when required.
CNG: myths and facts
A number of issues have been raised:¥ It is not available.¥ It is not safe.¥ It is not environmentally friendly. Emissions
are high.Please see our booklet: The smokescreen of lies:
myths and facts about CNG.For instance: allocation not availability the issue.
Delhi vehicles have been allocated less gas thanthe middle class cooking gas allocation where theswitch is from LPG to CNG. Need to displacediesel. EtcÉÉ.
Need fiscal incentives
Cost a factor in all our proposals: ULSD or CNG.Need fiscal policies to make clean technologiescompetitive. Need to factor in health costs.Never done till now.
Market for all advanced technologies: ULSD (withtraps), CNG, LPG, ethanolÉ is very hostile. Needofficial policy to promote the transition.
Can be done. Need to tax the bad. Promote thegood.
Auto fuel policyCSEÕs recommendations
Fuel comes cheap in IndiaThe ratio between per capita GDP and fuel prices show that fuel comes cheap in India than in EU countries.
The difference is stark in case of diesel. World over governments relate fuel taxes to GDP. Ratio of percapita GDP and fuel prices show how much more or less the citizens are paying for fuels in relation to per
capita GDP. Lower the ratio higher the tax level.
Petrol
Diesel
11.2
5.4
3.1 2.7 2.3 2.3 2.22.0
6.74.1 3.7 3.3 3.3 2.8 2.0
12
9
6
3
0
15
12
9
6
0
3
Delhi LuxembourgDenmark Germany France Netherlands Sweden UK
18.8
Source: Calculations based on Anon 2000, EU Vehicle and Fuel Tax Policy, Swedish EPA.
Subsidise technology transition by taxing the bad
Delhi has the highest per capita income and the lowestdiesel prices compared to other metros.
Entire CNG conversion could have been funded bybringing diesel prices at par with other metros.
In 1998-99, diesel sale in Delhi was 1,451 million litres. Anadditional sales tax of Re 1 in 1999 and 2000 would havefetched about Rs 300 crore. Increasing the price of diesel tothat of Mumbai would have netted the government over Rs.450 crore in one year.
Road taxes for cars and scooters in Delhi are very low. Theroad tax for cars in Chennai is twice that of Delhi.
Our recommendations: need for serious and urgentaction. Incremental change will not do.
1. Need for advancing fuel quality and emissionstandards.Need to catch up fast with state of the arttechnology. We have no choice.
All prediction scenarios show grim situation unless we takestrong action. Fast.
Delhi as a case study. SSSSttttuuuuddddiiiieeeessss ccccoooonnnndddduuuucccctttteeeedddd bbbbyyyy bbbbooootttthhhh CCCCPPPPCCCCBBBB aaaannnndddd CCCCSSSSEEEE
sssshhhhoooowwwwssss tttthhhhaaaatttt eeeevvvveeeennnn wwwwiiiitttthhhh aaaallllllll iiiinnnntttteeeerrrrvvvveeeennnnttttiiiioooonnnnssss
aaaannnndddd pppprrrrooooppppoooosssseeeedddd aaaaccccttttiiiioooonnnnssss,,,, aaaaiiiirrrr ppppoooolllllllluuuuttttiiiioooonnnn wwwwiiiillllllll
nnnnooootttt bbbbeeee nnnnooootttt ccccoooonnnnttttrrrroooolllllllleeeedddd iiiinnnn tttthhhheeee nnnneeeeaaaarrrr ffffuuuuttttuuuurrrreeee....
CPCBÕs assessment of pollution load trend
Scenario I: Impact of the following interventions in 2010
¥ Euro II fuel quality¥ Alternate fuel (CNG) for autos, taxis and buses¥ Euro III vehicular technology¥ Phasing out older vehicles
Scenario II: Impact of the following interventions in 2021
¥ Euro IV plus fuel quality¥ Alternate fuel (CNG) for autos, taxis and buses¥ Euro IV vehicular technology with proper Inspection and Maintenance¥ 40 percent reduction considered for cars, 20 per cent for trucks, Multiutility
vehicles and light commercial vehicles due to inspection and maintenance¥ Phasing out of older vehicles
CPCBÕs assessment: RSPM
RSPM is nowhe re near the standards even if all the interventions are implem ented
10275
163
361
050
100150200
250300
350400
2010 2021
Year
co
nc
en
tra
tio
n
(mic
rog
ram
me
/cu
m)
BAU
INTVNational Annual Mean standard - 60
Note:No safe levels prescribed by WHO
CPCBÕs assessment: CO
Projected annual average concentration of CO in Delhi
36614057
25172008
0500
10001500200025003000350040004500
2010 2021
Year
Co
nc
en
tra
tio
n
(mic
rog
ram
me
/cu
m)
BAU
INTV
NAAQS 8 hou rly s td - 2000
CSEÕs assessment of impact of fuel strategies on pollution loadINTERVENTIONS
The 25 possible interventions to reduce vehicular pollution load in Delhi
1. Apply stringent norms and implement them quikly2. Phase two stroke two-wheelers in favour of four-stroke two-wheelers3. Retrofit catalytic converters on all petrol cars manufactured before 1996.4. Ensure that all diesel good vehicles that operate within Delhi limits have a
particulate trap installed5. Ensure that all diesel good vehicles registered in Delhi have a de-Nox catalytic
converter6. Move all city buses to CNG7. Move all three wheelers on CNG8. Move all taxis to CNG9. Move all light duty vehicles on CNG10. Provide 30 ppm sulphur diesel fuel11. Provide 30 ppm sulphur petrol fuel12. Provide 10 percent ethanol-blended petrol13. Stop registration of diesel private cars14. Create incentives to move the private cars fleet towards CNG15. Create incentives to promote the introduction of zero emission two-wheelers16. Restrict the age of cars of tweleve years17. Restrict the age of two-wheelers to twelve years18. Begin a programme to weed out 50 percent of the gross polluting vehicles per
year19. Establish an emissions warranty and recall system20. Establish a mass rapid transit system (MRTS) to reduce vehicle utilization21. Increase parking fees and another measures to reduce vehicles utilization22. Increase the bus flet to reduce vehicle utilization23. Construct a bypass to divert interstate good vehicles traffic24. Implement financial increases to limit vehicle population growth25. Establish a pollution alert system
CSEÕs emission load model: PM
Trend in PM pollution load with and without interventions
62055950
57215593557255565430513350414976
4761
747793774761754744767740
20562062
4748
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Po
llu
tio
n l
oa
d (
ton
ne
s)
Base
Best
target
Target (356 tonnes)
Source: CSE emission load model
CSEÕs emission load model: NOx
Trend in NOx pollution with and without interventions
11.511.210.710.610.4
10.19.8
9.39.08.98.6
2.32.532.532.572.582.582.62.6
3.843.8
8.5
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
po
llu
tio
n l
oa
d (
ton
ne
s)
Base
Best
target
Target (2.7 lakh tonnes)
Source: CSEÕs emission load model
CSEÕs emission load model: CO
Trend in Co pollution load with and without interventions
7.37.27.06.8
6.76.5
6.1
5.2
5.84.8 5.5
1.01.11.11.21.21.21.31.3
2.01.9
4.87
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
year
CO
po
llutio
n (t
on
nes
) Base
Best
target
Best case with 25 interventions
Base case
All figures are in lakhs
Targe t (2.7la kh tonnes)
Source: CSE emission load model
CSEÕs emission load model: benzene
Trend in Benzene pollution load with and without interventions
14975
1612417208
1823919303
20405 2113821941
2296724327
26016
15757
7446 7721
5289 5331 51595407 5644 5918 6223 6018
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Year
po
llu
tio
n l
oa
d (
ton
ne
s)
Base
Best
Source: CSE emission load model
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2. Introduce special fuel and emissionstandards for pollution hot spots in the
country.
3. Make Euro IV fuel and vehicle technologymandatory in pollution hotspots by 2004-
2005.
OOOOuuuurrrr rrrreeeeccccoooommmmmmmmeeeennnnddddaaaattttiiiioooonnnnssss
4. In diesel take the quantum jump. Introducediesel with less than 30 ppm sulphur (ideally 15-10ppm) to enable application of particulate traps.
5. Lower total aromatics (PAH) in diesel and alsoaromatics and benzene in petrol drastically toreduce toxicity.
6. Invoke precautionary measures and ban MTBE.
7. Provide fiscal incentive to advance compliancewith advanced standards.
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8888.... PPPPrrrroooommmmooootttteeee aaaalllltttteeeerrrrnnnnaaaattttiiiivvvveeee ffffuuuueeeellllssss ttttoooo mmmmaaaakkkkeeee
aaaa qqqquuuuaaaannnnttttuuuummmm lllleeeeaaaapppp.... Prepare city-wise plan for introduction
of alternative fuels like CNG, LPG, ethanol, electric vehicles etc andtarget a sizeable section of the vehicle population to move toalternative fuels and make necessary allocation to meet the transportdemand.
11110000.... NNNNoooottttiiiiffffyyyy mmmmoooorrrreeee eeeennnnhhhhaaaannnncccceeeedddd ssssttttaaaannnnddddaaaarrrrddddssss ((((ttttiiiigggghhhhtttteeeerrrr
tttthhhhaaaannnn tttthhhheeee ccccoooonnnnvvvveeeennnnttttiiiioooonnnnaaaallll ffffuuuueeeellll ssssttttaaaannnnddddaaaarrrrddddssss)))) ffffoooorrrr
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11111111.... DDDDeeeessssiiiiggggnnnn ffffiiiissssccccaaaallll iiiinnnncccceeeennnnttttiiiivvvveeeessss ttttoooo pppprrrroooommmmooootttteeee
aaaalllltttteeeerrrrnnnnaaaattttiiiivvvveeee ffffuuuueeeelllllllleeeedddd tttteeeecccchhhhnnnnoooollllooooggggyyyy....
OOOOuuuurrrr rrrreeeeccccoooommmmmmmmeeeennnnddddaaaattttiiiioooonnnnssss
12. Improve air quality surveillance system in allcities. Introduce pollutants like benzene, ozoneand PAH.
13. Develop smog alert system for cities alongwith pollution emergency measures for animmediate local impact.
14. Involve civil society in standards-makingprocess. (no member of civil society on thiscommittee??)
MMMMuuuucccchhhh mmmmoooorrrreeee nnnneeeeeeeeddddssss ttttoooo bbbbeeee ddddoooonnnneeee.... ÉÉÉÉ rrrrooooaaaadddd
mmmmaaaapppp
É.. Design effective strategies to deal with emissions from in-use vehicles.Comprehensive inspection programme for in-use vehicles must comealong with legally enforceable emissions warranty and recall programmefrom the manufacturers and tighter in-use emissions standards. Designappropriate fiscal measures to encourage fast replacement of old vehicles.Develop comprehensive transportation plan to control number of privatevehicles and promote public transport. Use command and controlmeasures to discourage ownership and usage of private vehicles.
But most importantly, from this committee, weneed a progressive (bold) report which sets theroad map for the future. NNNNoooo ssssoooofffftttt ooooppppttttiiiioooonnnnssss
lllleeeefffftttt.
