© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
CFS-CIF E-lecture Series 2020
The Canadian Forest Service: Stories of Science Impacting
Practice
Steve D’Eon, KE Specialist
Canadian Forest Service,
Natural Resources Canada
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Disclaimer
The science in this presentation comes from researchers who
worked for/with CFS. Some I was lucky enough to work with.
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Herb Beall, Charlie Van Wagner, Jim Harrington, Ben Wang, Kit Yeatman, Kris Morgenstern, Peter Copis. Not pictured: Mark Hoslt (genetics), James (Jim) Wright (fire), Mike Wotton (fire), Mike Flannigan (fire), Kurt Johnsen (genetics), Marg Penner (G&Y). Lakehead University: Bill Parker, Mark Lesser, Ashley Thomson.Photos: Don Leckie, Donnie McPhee, Peter Murphy
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Topics in this presentation: - Provenance Trials: what are they, what are they good for?- Climate Change predictions then and now.- Why the origins of the Canadian wildland fire system matter.
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Then
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
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Map: Parker et al, 2004, p.28
Range-wide P-test: Collect seed at many locations across a species’ range, plant at multiple sites, Include a local source at each planting site
Example of test site
Example of collection
What is a
Provenance trial?
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
5Front side of the collection card for seedlot s2444
s2444
Credit: Credit : Donnie McPhee, NTSC
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
6Front side of the collection card for seedlot s2444
s2444
Credit: Credit : Donnie McPhee, NTSC
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Collected in 1956, sown in
1958, planted in various tests
including the 194 series.
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194 M-1
194 D-1
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Some Range wide P-tests east of the Rockies
established by CFS
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Species Experiment Year # seedlots # sitesJack pine Exp 255 1966 99 17White spruce Exp 093 1958 30 13
Exp 194 1963 75 17Exp 410 1985 245 41
Black spruce Exp 353 1974 200 12Red spruce Exp 095 1959 19 14Tamarack Exp 424 1986 142 10Red pine Exp 074 1956 25
Exp 096 1958 18 7Exp 216 1960 8
White pine Exp 025 1943 42 14
s2444
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255 jack pine series
99 seed sources, 17 planting sites.
Map: Parker et al. 2006, p.3
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
One of the early results from provenance tests was to confirm the ‘local is best’ paradigm (but added ‘unless proven otherwise’)
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1929: “restrict the transport of seed to comparatively short distance.“ Bates For. Chron.Vol.5(1)
Impact from this science: confirming Local is Best
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Local is Best Implemented using Seed Zones
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Reforestation system geared to seed zones
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Zone 30
Whole system to collect and process seed, grow seedlings, plant trees by seed zone
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Questioning the Local is Best paradigm in a
changing climate
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1985: Will local be the best going forward? D.F.W.Pollard For. Chron. Vol.61(4)
1989: “Climatic warming will result in a northward relocation of the zone of maximum growth of a given tree species.” CIF brief to House of Commons. For. Chron. Vol.66(2)
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
2nd Impact from p-tests: Is Local Best in a changing climate?
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Matyas (1994) used data from 56 jack pine sources transferred to three Ontario
locations to demonstrate the possibility and limitations of using provenance tests in
climate change modeling.
Concept meeting Oct. 5,6 1999: Goal: “Scientifically develop predictive models quantifying the response of natural and planted forests to climate change.”
Lakehead University Bill Parker and students: 2001 measured 410 white spruce series, 2003 measured 353 black spruce series, 2005 measured the 255 jack pine series.
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
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Example: Best match for planting black spruce at Petawawa for the expected temps of 2040-2069 are seed sources from southern Ontario.
Credit: Parker et al. 2004, p.89
Petawawa
What is assisted migration and how do p-tests help address it?
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
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Example: Best sites for planting jack pine from Peterborough for the expected temps of 2040-2069 are north by several hundred km
What is assisted migration and how do p-tests help address it?
Credit: Parker et al. 2006, page 17
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Impact: Policy Change
Climate Based Seed Transfer (CBST
Diane Nicholls Chief Forester, B.C., April, 2018
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“new seed transfer policy for the province ...which will update ....and advances in science and climate change modeling.Ken Elliot, OMNRF, 2017
Quebec's seed zones were updated to ecological regions and transfers 0.5o south and 1o north as well as 300 m of elevational change (Deshaies and Rainville2007).
Alberta revised its policy in 2009 to allow northward and upward transfers (Gray and Hamann 2011).
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Topics in this presentation: - Provenance Trials: assisted migration, Beachburgwhite spruce.- Climate Change predictions then and now.- Why the origins of the Canadian wildland fire system matters.
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
19Back side of the collection card for seedlot s2444 shows who the seed was shared with
Credit : Donnie McPhee, NTSC
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Reference Location Beachburg ranking based on tree height
Nienstaedt 1969
13 US sites
and one site in
N.B.
1st or 2nd at 9 of 14 sites at age 5 out of between
20 and 28 provenances. 4th (three sites), and 5th
and 8th at the other two sites.
Teich 1973 Canada1st to 3rd at age 10 out of between 31 and 55
sources planted at four sites.
Wilkinson 1977 Maine 2nd out of 24 provenances at age 15.
Genys & Nienstaedt 1978 Maryland 1st out of 24 provenances at age 20.
Hale 1979 Maine 10th out of 30 provenances at age 14.
Tebbetts 1981 Maine7th and 8th out of 37 provenances in a nursery
test, age 1 and 2.
Nienstaedt & Kang 1983 Michigan 1st out of 4 provenances at age 18.
Radsliff et al. 1983 Minnesota 1st out of 25 provenances at age 15.
Khalil 1985 Newfoundland 2nd out of 32 provenances at age 20.
Beaulieu 1996 Quebec2nd and 4th out of 20 provenances at age 14 at
two sites.
20Ranking of the s2444 /Beachburg seed source in various studies.
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Back to Beachburg: 1970’s• Things had changed.
• Ottawa Valley White Spruce (OVWS) population.
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Photo Credit : Donnie McPhee, Don Leckie
Exp 410 G1, G2
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
22Back to Beachburg, 1974 Collection card for seedlot s8026.
s8026
Credit : Donnie McPhee, NTSC
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
23What happened between 1956 and 1970’s?
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Credit : Donnie McPhee, NTSC
Map: Lu et al. 2014
The 410 experiment included 245 sources with several from the Ottawa Valley
s8026
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Beachburg
Map: Lu et al. 2014
Results Early performance of seedlot s8026 in Ontario 410 provenance tests was consistently in the top quartile (top 25%).
Not as good as s2444.
s8026 grows about 5% slower than s2444
Ontario test locations 410 series
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26How much faster does OVWS grow?
11% more volume/ha than the local seed source at age 44.
Morgenstern et al. For. Chron. 82(4)
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
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In an Upper Peninsula Michigan test of a simple design, white spruce of a Beachburg, Ontario provenance grew 17.5 percent taller
The fastest growing population in Maryland is of the Beachburg Ontario provenance. This provenance has been widely tested and has consistently been among the most productive.
Fowler and Coles (1977) have
described a program to develop a
source of Ottawa River Valley seeds in
the Maritimes.
On the basis of consistently good performance, a Beachburg, Ontario, source is recommended for use in Minnesota planting programs.
In the East, a source centered around Beachburg and Douglas in the Ottawa River Valley has proven superior in the Lake States, New England, and southern portions of the range in eastern Canada.
Impact: Inclusion in
tree breeding programs
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Impact
• Beachburg/OVWS has proven to be a ‘robust’ performer (grows well in many regions).
• A single collection of tree seed in 1956 has led to millions of trees planted with genes from the OVWS population.
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Epilogue• Provenance tests give us the ability to model and evaluate
choices for planting trees adapted to the climate of the future.
• The robust ability of superior sources such as Beachburg/OVWS that grow well in many environments may take an even more prominent role in future reforestation/afforestation efforts in response to climate change.
• Original s2444 gene pool lost in-situ, ex-situ only conservation.
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Topics in this presentation: - Provenance Trials: assisted migration, Beachburgwhite spruce.- Climate Change predictions then and now.- Why the origins of the Canadian wildland fire system matters.
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Climate Change predictions from the
past: why they matter now.
The literature on climate change has grown exponentially. We will look at some predictions made in the early literature.
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
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Harrington J. 1987. Climate change: a review of causes.
Can. J. For. Res. 17(11):1313-1339.
Figure 21
Jim stated he thought scenario 2a
(no coal phase out) would happen.
Projected 0.5C rise by 2019.
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
33Harrington J. 1987. Climate change: a review of causes.
Can. J. For. Res. 17(11):1313-1339.
What happened?
No coal phase out happened.
Existing warming by 2019 was
almost double than predicted
under no coal phase out.
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Flannigan, M. and C.E. Van Wagner. 1991. Climate change and wildfire in Canada. Can. J. For. Res. 21(10): 66-72
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Flannigan and Van Wagner 1991 predicted a 46% increase in the area burned in a world with a doubling of atmospheric CO2.
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1,000,000
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Area burned in Canada (ha)
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Bergeron, Y. and M. Flannigan. 1995. Predicting the effects of climate change on fire frequency in the
southeastern Canadian boreal forest. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution 82: 437-444.
35Area burned (ha) by year in western Canada
(dashed line) vs. eastern Canada (solid line) ten year
moving average
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100,000
300,000
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Bergeron and
Flannigan
1995
Predicted an
increase in
fire in the
west and a
decrease in
the east.
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Wotton, M. and M. Flannigan. 1993. Length of the fire season in a changing climate. For. Chron. 69(2): 187-192.
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Wotton and Flannigan 1993 predicted a 22% increase in fire season length under a doubling of atmospheric CO2
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
In Fire Trends 1959-2015, researchers Charlene Hanes and Xianli Wang confirmed:
✓ The fire season is getting longer by an average of almost two weeks.
✓ Nationally, the results show that area burned has almost tripled since 1959,
✓ In general, increased trends in area burned, number of large fires and lightning caused fires are more prevalent in the West,
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Topics in this presentation: - Provenance Trials: assisted migration, Beachburgwhite spruce.- Climate Change predictions then and now.- Why the origins of the Canadian wildland fire system matters.
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Why should you care about forest fire
research started in the 1920’s?The origins of forest fire research in Canada set the direction of the Canadian system.
• Modularity
• Empirical data
• Tech transfer
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Sometimes
experiments
get hot.
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
1960’s
experimental fire
Follow the
dedicated student
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Van Wagner, 1987 Climate change could shake
fire management to its foundation.
• In speaking about CC and fire regimes in 1987: “The outcome could range all the way from an increase in seasonal severity well within the present range to a challenge so profound as to shake fire management to its foundation.”http://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/pubwarehouse/pdfs/23548.pdf page 119.
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
If researchers were right before, what are
researchers predicting now?
• Crown fires more likely • Days when fire intensities could exceed the capabilities of suppression resources (even airtankers) increases substantially• Increased number of fires• Increased incidence of unmanageable crown fire.
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Wotton, Flannigan, and Marshall. 2017 Potential climate change impacts on fire intensity and key wildfire suppression thresholds in Canada. Environ. Res. Lett 12 095003
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
what are the predictions now?Wotton, Flannigan, and Marshall. 2017. Potential climate change impacts on fire intensity and key wildfire suppression
thresholds in Canada. Environ. Res. Lett 12 095003
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Figure 5. Percent change from baseline period in the mean number of days where fireline intensity (at the head of a fire) exceeds 10 MW m1 for the RCP8.5 scenario. >10Mwm1 airtankers are not effective. Red in the right hand figure indicates going from 8 days to 52 days.
baseline period (1971–2000).
HadGEM22021-2040
HadGEM22081-2099
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
48Where are we today: Learning all the time
Slave Lake, Ft McMurray, Calif. , Australia
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Recap CFS science impacting practices.- Provenance Trials (est. 1950’s to 1970’s) leading to existing and potential
improvements in practices re climate change adaptation.
- The predictions CFS scientists made (late 1980’s-90’s) in the past were
valid so we probably should heed the current predictions.
- Why the origins of the Canadian wildland fire system set us up to do our
best in a coming era of ‘unmanageable fire’.
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© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Disclaimer
The science in this presentation came from researchers who
worked for/with CFS. Some I was lucky enough to work with.
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Herb Beall, Charlie Van Wagner, Jim Harrington, Ben Wang, Kit Yeatman, Kris Morgenstern, Peter Copis. Not pictured: Mark Hoslt (genetics), James (Jim) Wright (fire), Mike Wotton (fire), Mike Flannigan (fire), Kurt Johnsen (genetics), Marg Penner (G&Y). Lakehead University: Bill Parker, Mark Lesser, Ashley Thomson.Photos: Don Leckie, Donnie McPhee, Peter Murphy
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, as represented by the Minister of Natural Resources, 2017
Thank You
Steve.deon @ canada.ca
613 639-1037
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