Challenges to the London Plan:

Population and Household Forecasts in the Light of the

2001 Census

John Hollis

London School of Economics Lent Term Seminars

24 February 2003

Data Management and Analysis

Timetable of London Plan Demographic Work

• June 2000 GLA 2000 Round of Demographic Projections

• May 2001 Towards the London Plan• October 2001 Expert Panel on average

household size, etc• March 2002 Planning for London’s Growth• May 2002 SDS Technical Report 5• June 2002 draft London Plan• January 2003 GLA 2002 Round of

Demographic Projections and SDS Technical Report 23 (2001 MYE)

• February 2003 Update to SDS TR 23 (2001 KS)

Data Management and Analysis

Some Basic Premises

All work at borough level Use of latest official ONS/ODPM data throughout:

– ONS vital statistics– Migration based on MYE change analysis, International

Passenger Survey, Patient Records and AS/VS– DETR 1996-based household representative rates– GAD marital status, fertility and mortality forecasts

Assumptions consistent with GAD/ONS/ODPM– ie Projected migration based on latest 5-years data

However ….

Data Management and Analysis

Some Problem Areas

• Inconsistencies between ODPM household and dwelling estimates with:– Survey of English Housing household estimates– Survey of English Housing average household

size– Council Tax Dwelling stocks

• Expert Panel discussion • A major pragmatic decision required:

– The future level of average household size?

• Different age/gender structure from ONS ..• .. therefore different household projection

from ODPM

Data Management and Analysis

GLA 2000 Round Demographic Projections

• Projection 1B – based on London’s Housing Capacity 1996-2016

• Projection 2 – based on average migration patterns of 1993-98

• Results for 2016:– P1B: Population 7.60 m: Households: 3.34 m– P2: Population 8.15 m: Households: 3.59 m– Towards the London Plan

• ONS/DETR 1996-based– Population: 7.61 m: Households 3.52 m

Data Management and Analysis

Scenario 8.1 (June 2001)

Inner, Outer and Greater London as 2000 Round P2

After 1996 Inner/Outer P2 results redistributed to Inner/Outer boroughs according to P1B borough results

Shifted 2016 population away from K&C (52k), Westminster (65k), Barnet (52k) and Richmond (39k)

Shifted 2016 population to Islington (24k), Tower Hamlets (32k), B&D (30k) and Greenwich (30k)

Data Management and Analysis

London: Dwellings and Households since 1991

2750

2800

2850

2900

2950

3000

3050

3100

3150

3200

3250

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Year

Th

ou

san

ds

LFS (HH)

SEH (HH)

DTLR (HH)

DTLR (DW)

CTax (DW)

Data Management and Analysis

London Average Household Size

ODPM SEH GLASc8.11991 2.39 2.391994 2.401995 2.381996 2.32 2.39 2.351997 2.32 2.381998 2.32 2.391999 2.30 2.392000 2.28 2.392001 2.28 2.34

Data Management and Analysis

Benchmarking Scenario 8.1 Households (AHS = 2.35)

(000s) Original Benchmarked

1996 2966 29662001 3125 31102016 3592 3421

2001-16 467 311

Per annum 31.1 20.7

Data Management and Analysis

SDS Technical Report 5 (May 2002)

Population Households

2001 7.411m 3.110m 2016 8.149m 3.421m

0.738m 0.311m

455k household increase 1996-2016 – 23k per year

Data Management and Analysis

2001 Census/MYE – Sept/Oct 2002

• 2001 MYE: 7.188 m cf approx 7.475 m– 1991 MYE also reduced by 60 k– Growth since 1991 reduced by 225 k to 360 k– International migration +465 k rather than +690

k– ‘Loss’ of young males– Younger and more female population

• ‘Losses’ in Westminster (62k), K&C (31k), Barnet (30k) and Richmond (22k)

• ‘Gains’ in Tower Hamlets (10k), Brent (10k), B&D (8k) and Southwark (7k)

Data Management and Analysis

GLA 2002 Round Demographic Projections

• Three variant projections for sensitivity – following GOL/ODPM comments on dLP

• Central: average gross and net migration of 1996-2001 after 2001

• Low: International Migration as Central; UK migration based on 2000-01

• High: UK Migration as Central; International migration based on 2000-01

• Population, Households and Economically Active

Data Management and Analysis

Greater London Population: 1991-2001

6800

6900

7000

7100

7200

7300

7400

7500

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Year

thou

sand

s

ONS MYE

MYE 'Revised'

Data Management and Analysis

Chart 1: Greater London Male Population: 1991

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44

Age Group

Census

MYE

'Revised' MYE

Data Management and Analysis

London: Net Migration 1991-2001

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01

Year

Thou

sand

s

Original Net Migration

Adjusted Net Migration

Data Management and Analysis

London: International Migration

0

50

100

150

200

250

1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01

Year

Thou

sand

s

In

Out

In-Adj

Out-Adj

Data Management and Analysis

Table 2: Greater London Migration 1991-2001: thousands

International Migration (revised) UK Migration TotalIn Out Net In Out Net Net

1991-92 95.2 91.3 3.9 153.9 208.2 -54.3 -50.41992-93 90.1 70.8 19.2 149.9 200.4 -50.5 -31.21993-94 100.5 74.2 26.3 152.7 203.4 -50.7 -24.51994-95 102.0 80.1 21.9 166.6 207.8 -41.2 -19.21995-96 119.8 69.8 50.0 168.8 208.9 -40.1 9.91996-97 111.3 79.6 31.7 168.5 217.7 -49.2 -17.51997-98 139.0 97.1 41.9 169.5 221.5 -52.0 -10.01998-99 180.9 101.3 79.6 167.6 220.1 -52.5 27.11999-00 193.1 106.4 86.7 163.3 233.2 -69.9 16.82000-01 208.6 109.5 99.1 163.6 232.2 -68.6 30.5

AnnualAverage1996-01 166.6 98.8 67.8 166.5 224.9 -58.4 9.4

Data Management and Analysis

Chart 2: Greater London 2001 Male Population: 1991-based projection cf. MYE

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

0 - 4 5 - 9 10 -14

15 -19

20 -24

25 -29

30 -34

35 -39

40 -44

45 -49

50 -54

55 -59

60 -64

65 -69

70 -74

75 -79

80 -84

85 -89

90 +

Age

1991-based projection

2001 MYE

Data Management and Analysis

Chart 3: Greater London 2001 Female Population: 1991-based projection cf. MYE

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

0 - 4 5 - 9 10 -14

15 -19

20 -24

25 -29

30 -34

35 -39

40 -44

45 -49

50 -54

55 -59

60 -64

65 -69

70 -74

75 -79

80 -84

85 -89

90 +

Age

1991-based projection

2001 MYE

Data Management and Analysis

Chart 7: Greater London Natural Change: 2001-16 (Central Projection)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2001-2002

2002-2003

2003-2004

2004-2005

2005-2006

2006-2007

2007-2008

2008-2009

2009-2010

2010-2011

2011-2012

2012-2013

2013-2014

2014-2015

2015-2016

Year

thou

sand

s

Births

Deaths

Natural Change

Data Management and Analysis

Chart 8: Greater London Variant Net Migration: 2001-16

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

Year

Thou

sand

s

Low

Central

High

Data Management and Analysis

Chart 9: Greater London Population: 1991-2016

6500

6700

6900

7100

7300

7500

7700

7900

8100

8300

8500

Year

thou

sand

s

Low

Central

High

Data Management and Analysis

Chart 10: Greater London Age Structure: 2001 and 2016 (Central Projection)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

0 - 4 5 - 9 10 -14

15 -19

20 -24

25 -29

30 -34

35 -39

40 -44

45 -49

50 -54

55 -59

60 -64

65 -69

70 -74

75 -79

80 -84

85 -89

90 +

Age

thou

sand

s

2001

2016

Data Management and Analysis

Greater London Results

2001 2016 Change

Population 7188006 Low 7600767 412761Central 7899063 711057High 8287145 1099139

Households 3056442 Low 3341314 284872Central 3472962 416520High 3626292 569850

Data Management and Analysis

Table 6 Greater London Central Household Projection, by Type of HouseholdChange

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2001-16

Married Couple Households 1244071 1129938 1049278 965798 909153 871863 -177415Cohabiting Couple Households 193574 242815 336974 420606 483649 524534 187560Lone Parent Households 190852 229524 262548 286361 304114 319486 56938One Person Households 882466 954640 1044410 1121019 1202370 1299840 255430Other 2+ Person Households 298092 327494 363232 394594 426100 457239 94007

Total Households 2809055 2884411 3056442 3188378 3325386 3472962 416520

Average Household Size 2.39 2.37 2.32 2.30 2.27 2.24 -

Data Management and Analysis

The London Plan: Revised Forecast

• Central Projection basis for Scenario 7.9 Forecast

• Borough populations revised to provide a closer match between household projection and ‘London’s Housing Capacity’: 2001-16

• Household projections then ‘benchmarked’ at constant borough 2001 AHS

• Overall London AHS of 2.32• 2001-16 ‘Benchmarked’ household growth:

307 thousand • SDS Technical Report 23

Data Management and Analysis

2001 Census: Key Statistics

• First results showing some of the variables used in household projections

• Communal establishment population• Private household population• Total households• Average household size• Households by type

• All of relevance to the London Plan forecast

Data Management and Analysis

Communal Establishment Population

• 93 thousand – including 6 thousand staff, etc.• London: 1.30% E&W: 1.80%• 34 thousand in Medical/Care Establishments• 53 thousand in ‘Other’ Estabs. Inc students

• London Plan: 100 thousand: 1.40%

• Therefore a slightly larger private household population at mid-2001: 7.094 million

Data Management and Analysis

Households

• Key Statistics 3.016 million• Average household size: 2.35

• dLP: 3.110 million: @ 2.35 !!!

• SDS TR23: 3.056 million: @ 2.32

• ODPM: 3.121 million: @ 2.27

Data Management and Analysis

Households by Type

• Key Statistics ‘family’ categories do not absolutely match standard types

• Married couples: 1,057 k 1,049k• Cohabiting couples: 299 k 337k <<<• Lone parents: 250 k 263k• 2+ non-family: 364 k 363k• One-person: 1,047 k 1,044k

Key Stats SDS TR 23

Data Management and Analysis

Impact on the London Plan

• 2001 starting level is lower …• … but 2001-16 growth little altered

• 2001: 3.023 million households @ AHS 2.35

• 2016 Projection: Range 3.395 m to 3.435 m– Growth: 370-410 k– AHS: 2.27-2.30

• 2016 Benchmarked Forecast: 3.320 m– Growth: 300 k

Data Management and Analysis

Greater London: Projected/Forecast Average Household Size

2.1

2.15

2.2

2.25

2.3

2.35

2.4

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Year

ODPM

GLA 2000

DLP

GLA2002

SDS TR 23

GLA2002KS 1

GLA2002KS 2

SDS TR 23 Rev

Data Management and Analysis

Greater London Population: 1991-2016

6700

6900

7100

7300

7500

7700

7900

8100

8300

Year

thousa

nds

ONS MYE

Adjusted MYE

draft london Plan

Post- Census Revisions

Data Management and Analysis

What are the Risks?

• International migration continues to rise ..• .. but ..• .. migration from GL to rest of UK is also

rising

• Internal migration settles back to around 50k/year

• Household formation starts to accelerate

Data Management and Analysis

Lessons from 2001 Census – so far

• ONS Mid-year Estimates– Who is a resident?– Improve international migration estimates

• ODPM– Re-base and rethink household projection

model– Review Labour Force Survey results– Re-weight Survey of English Housing

• GLA– Increase scepticism of MYE– Utilise a range of indicators: eg Council Tax– The GLA models appear to be robust