Chapter 2: Population · The population jumped 55 percent in 10 years from 1970 to 1980. In a...

Bonner County Comprehensive Plan

Bonner Planning Department

Bonner County, Idaho

6/7/2013

Chapter 2: Population

Idaho Code §67‐6508 (b) requires the following for the Population

component: (b) Population ‐‐ A population analysis of past, present,

and future trends in population including such characteristics as total

population, age, sex, and income.

Bonner County, Idaho | Population Comprehensive Plan Component 2

TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................................... 2

Introduction: ........................................................................................................................................................... 4

Population Overview & Trends ............................................................................................................................... 5

Bonner County’s Rank in State by Population .................................................................................................... 6

2010 Census Summary ........................................................................................................................................ 6

2010 Bonner County QuickFacts ......................................................................................................................... 6

Bonner County QuickFacts Table ............................................................................................................................ 7

Bonner County Population Distribution ................................................................................................................. 8

Urban/Rural Population Ratio ............................................................................................................................ 9

People Per Square Mile ....................................................................................................................................... 9

City Populations in Bonner County ................................................................................................................... 10

Population Migration ........................................................................................................................................ 10

Social Factors ........................................................................................................................................................ 11

Race ................................................................................................................................................................... 11

Gender .............................................................................................................................................................. 11

Marriage/divorce .............................................................................................................................................. 11

Age .................................................................................................................................................................... 12

Birth/Death Rate ............................................................................................................................................... 13

Health ................................................................................................................................................................ 14

Housing ............................................................................................................................................................. 14

Population Trends & Projections .......................................................................................................................... 16

Issues ..................................................................................................................................................................... 17

Objectives & Policies ............................................................................................................................................. 17

Action Plan ............................................................................................................................................................ 18

Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................................... 19

Appendices ............................................................................................................................................................ 21

Map of Idaho Percent Change in Population 2000 to 2010 ............................................................................. 22

Map of Idaho 2010 Census Results by County ................................................................................................. 23

Map of Bonner County Population Distribution, 2010 Census ........................................................................ 24

Table of Bonner County Race Profile (1980‐2010) ........................................................................................... 25


Table of Population Profile by Age and Sex (2010) .......................................................................................... 25

Table of Bonner County QuickFacts, 2000 Census ............................................................................................... 26

Table of Top 20 Counties in Idaho By Percentage Growth, 2010 Census ........................................................ 27

Table of Drivers’ License Registration ............................................................................................................... 28

Table of County Health Ranking Comparisons ................................................................................................. 29


INTRODUCTION: Accurate, up‐to‐date population data play an important role in Bonner County’s land use decisions and policies. The timing, location, and sizing of public services, utilities and transportation systems are based upon Bonner County’s unique population characteristics, growth patterns, distribution, and population forecasts. Demographic trends help community leaders become aware of potential demands on county resources. Every 10 years, the U.S. Census Bureau assesses the nation’s population and provides comprehensive details about each area’s birth/death rate, socio‐economic factors, housing, race profiles, people per household, people per square mile and other details. Between the decennial head counts, the Census Bureau, Idaho Department of Commerce and private enterprises provide estimates the county can use to determine growth rates.

This Population Component includes an analysis of past, present, and future trends in population, and details such as total population, age, sex, and income. Charts, maps, and graphs are also used to provide a quick, visual summary of the county’s population. The Housing and Economic Development components also contain census‐based details more directly related to those topics.

Population Component Goal:“Bonner County will keep current with census data and population trends in order to effectively analyze community needs and development impacts”


POPULATION OVERVIEW & TRENDS The 2010 census placed Bonner County’s population at 40,877. Bonner County, established in 1907, now has 100 years of population data. The 100‐year population chart below shows the county grew by fewer than 2,000 people over the first 60 years of its existence. Rises and falls in population amounted to little more than 3 or 4 percent over each decade until 1970. But the 1980 census revealed Bonner County was experiencing a population boom. The population jumped 55 percent in 10 years from 1970 to 1980. In a 30‐year span beginning in 1970, the population grew by 137 percent. Between 1990 and 2000, Bonner County increased in population by 38.4 percent, but by the 2010 census, the growth slowed to an 11 percent increase over 10 years.

‐

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

13,588

12,957 13,152

15,667 14,853

15,587 15,560

24,163

26,622

36,835

40,877

Bonner County100 Years of Historical Population Trends

(Richard Forstall, Population Division, US Bureau of the Census 1995), (U.S. Census Bureau 2000), (U.S. Census Bureau 2012)


BONNER COUNTY’S RANK IN STATE BY POPULATION

Bonner County ranked as the sixth fastest growing county in Idaho in 2000. With the slower growth pace, the county slipped to the 18th fastest growing county in 2010. Neighboring Kootenai and Boundary counties each outpaced Bonner County’s growth rate in the 2010 census. To the south, Kootenai County grew at a rate of 27.4%, while Boundary County to the north increased at a slightly greater rate than Bonner County, with 11.2%. Montana’s Lincoln County to the east grew 4.5% in the past 10 years, and Pend Oreille County in Washington saw a 10.82% population increase between 2000 and 2010 (U.S. Census Bureau 2013). Early estimates, post‐2010 census, suggest Bonner County’s population growth has stalled, with a slight drop of 401 people by 2012 (U.S. Census Bureau 2012). Each year, the Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program uses current data on births, deaths, and migration to calculate population changes since the most recent decennial census. The Census Bureau produces a time series of estimates of population, demographic components of change, and housing units.

2010 CENSUS SUMMARY

Bonner County’s population growth rate between 2000 and 2010 was about one‐third of the previous decennial percentage of increase. As the sixth fastest growing county in Idaho, Bonner County turned in a brisk 38.4% increase in population in 2000. While the decade that followed began strongly, the nationwide Recession and local downturn in the economy resulted in slowed growth as the 10‐year mark approached. The total population fell about 2,000 people short of some of the forecasts for 2010 (Bonner County Planning Department 2003). In 2010, Bonner County edged out Nez Perce (Lewiston) to become the 8th most populous county in Idaho. Bonner County was listed just behind Bingham County (Blackfoot), which tallied 4,730 more people than Bonner County during the 2010 head count. Madison County (Rexburg) rounded out the top 10. In the 2000 census Bonner County claimed the 9th spot, outpacing Latah County.

2010 BONNER COUNTY QUICKFACTS

The U.S. Census Bureau provides an “executive summary” of the highlights of each census for cities and counties of 5,000 or more persons. Below is the U.S. Census Bureau’s “QuickFacts” for Bonner County. The QuickFacts for 2000 can be found in the appendices of this document.

Population Ranking by County in Idaho

(2010 Census)

County Rank 2010

Population

2000

Population

% Change since 2000

Ada County 1 392,365 300,904 30.4%

Canyon County 2 188,923 131,441 43.7%

Kootenai County 3 138,494 108,685 27.5%

Bonneville County 4 104,234 82,522 26.3%

Bannock County 5 82,839 75,565 9.6%

Twin Falls County 6 77,230 64284 20.1%

Bingham County 7 45,607 41,735 9.3%

Bonner County 8 40,877 36,835 11.0%

Nez Perce County 9 39,265 37,410 5.0%

Madison County 10 37,536 27,467 36.7%

(U.S. Census Bureau 2012) (Idaho Department of Commerce n.d.)


When compared with one decade earlier, Bonner County’s population:

• Grew slower than the state’s 17.5% pace. Bonner County grew by 11% from 2000 to 2010. • Aged. In 2000, 13.1% of Bonner County’s population was older than 65. By 2010, 18% were older than

65, compared to the state’s 12.8%. • Remained nearly unchanged with the male to female ratio of 50.38%:49.62% and ethnic makeup of

96.3% white. • Was better educated, with a nearly 5.5 percentage point increase in those holding a high school

diploma and a 5 percentage point increase in those with a bachelor’s degree or higher. • Saw little change in the number of persons below the poverty line (15.5% in 2000; 15.2% in 2012). The

percentage of Idaho’s population below the poverty line was 14.3% for 2010, while nationally the number is about equal to Bonner County’s, at 15%.

• Lost a little elbow room. The number of persons per square mile living in Bonner County in 2010 was 23.6. A decade ago, the persons per square mile was 21.2 10. The average number of people per square mile in all of Idaho is 19.

BONNER COUNTY QUICKFACTS TABLE

PEOPLE QUICKFACTS: A COMPARISON OF BONNER COUNTY & IDAHO’S POPULATION DETAILS 2010

BONNER COUNTY 2010

IDAHO 2010

Population, 2012 estimate 40,476 1,595,728 Population, 2011 estimate 40,808 1,583,744 Population, 2010 (April 1) estimates base 40,877 1,567,652 Population, percent change, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2012 compare 2000‐2010 ‐1.0% 1.8% Population, percent change, April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2011 ‐0.2% 1.1% Population, 2010 40,877 1,567,582 Persons under 5 years, percent, 2011 5.0% 7.5% Persons under 18 years, percent, 2011 21.2% 27.0% Persons 65 years and over, percent, 2011 18.0% 12.8% Female persons, percent, 2011 49.7% 49.9% White persons, percent, 2011 (a) 96.3% 93.9% Black persons, percent, 2011 (a) 0.2% 0.8% American Indian and Alaska Native persons, percent, 2011 (a) 0.8% 1.7% Asian persons, percent, 2011 (a) 0.5% 1.3% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander persons, percent, 2011 (a) 0.1% 0.2% Persons reporting two or more races, percent, 2011 2.1% 2.1% Persons of Hispanic or Latino Origin, percent, 2011 (b) 2.4% 11.5% White persons not Hispanic, percent, 2011 94.3% 83.6% Living in same house 1 year & over, percent, 2007‐2011 89.1% 82.0% Foreign born persons, percent, 2007‐2011 2.6% 5.9% Language other than English spoken at home, percent age 5+, 2007‐2011 3.3% 10.2% High school graduate or higher, percent of persons age 25+, 2007‐2011 91.0% 88.5% Bachelor's degree or higher, percent of persons age 25+, 2007‐2011 22.3% 24.6% Veterans, 2007‐2011 4,488 127,438 Mean travel time to work (minutes), workers age 16+, 2007‐2011 24 20


PEOPLE QUICKFACTS: A COMPARISON OF BONNER COUNTY & IDAHO’S POPULATION DETAILS 2010

BONNER COUNTY 2010

IDAHO 2010

Housing units, 2011 25,269 674,394 Homeownership rate, 2007‐2011 73.2% 70.6% Housing units in multi‐unit structures, percent, 2007‐2011 11.6% 15.1% Median value of owner‐occupied housing units, 2007‐2011 $236,200 $171,300 Households, 2007‐2011 18,399 575,497 Persons per household, 2007‐2011 2.2 2.64 Per capita money income in the past 12 months (2011 dollars), 2007‐2011 $24,494 $22,788 Median household income, 2007‐2011 $42,989 $46,890 Persons below poverty level, percent, 2007‐2011 15.2% 14.3% Business QuickFacts Bonner County Idaho Private nonfarm establishments, 2010 1,468 43,450 Private nonfarm employment, 2010 11,313 487,875 Private nonfarm employment, percent change, 2000‐2010 8.5 8.2 Nonemployer establishments, 2010 3,704 112,316 Total number of firms, 2007 5,642 151,671 Black‐owned firms, percent, 2007 F 0.2% American Indian‐ and Alaska Native‐owned firms, percent, 2007 S 0.9% Asian‐owned firms, percent, 2007 0.7% 0.8% Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander‐owned firms, percent, 2007 F S Hispanic‐owned firms, percent, 2007 S 2.6% Women‐owned firms, percent, 2007 20.6% 23.5% Manufacturer’s shipments, 2007 ($1000) 498,636 18,010,976 Merchant wholesaler sales, 2007 ($1000) 149,654 14,286,715 Retail sales, 2007 ($1000) 485,307 20,526,631 Retail sales per capita, 2007 $11,788 $13,691 Accommodation and food services sales, 2007 ($1000) 63,260 2,415,951 Geography QuickFacts Bonner County Idaho Land area in square miles, 2010 1,734.57 82,643.12 Persons per square mile, 2010 23.6 19 (a) Includes persons reporting only one race. (b) Hispanics may be of any race, so also are included in applicable race categories. S: Suppressed; does not meet publication standards F: Fewer than 100 firms Source: US Census Bureau State & County QuickFacts, 2010 Census

BONNER COUNTY POPULATION DISTRIBUTION Statewide, the rate of migration from the rural areas to incorporated cities continued to climb. Eighty percent of the state’s population growth over the decade occurred in 11 “metropolitan” counties, according to the U.S. Census. The metro areas of Coeur d’Alene, Boise and Idaho Falls grew at a faster rate than Idaho as a


27.6%

72.4% Urban

Rural

Bonner County

PopulationUrban vs

Rural Areas

(U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration 2012)

whole (Idaho Department of Labor n.d.). A map depicting the county’s population distribution is included in this document’s appendices.

URBAN/RURAL POPULATION RATIO

Bonner County remains a largely rural county, with 72.4% of its population living in the rural areas and 27.6% in urban areas. For the 2010 Census, an urban area is a “densely settled core of census tracts and/or census blocks” that meets minimum population density requirements, along with adjacent territory containing non‐residential urban land uses linked to the densely settled core. To qualify an urban area must encompass at least 2,500 people, at least 1,500 of which reside outside institutional group quarters. The Census Bureau identifies two types of urban areas:

• Urbanized Areas (UAs) of 50,000 or more people;

• Urban Clusters (UCs) of at least 2,500 and less than 50,000 people.

“Rural” encompasses all population, housing, and territory not included within an urban area (U.S. Census Bureau 2013). Sandpoint, with its surrounding vicinity, is the only area qualifying as an urban cluster in Bonner County. Sandpoint’s population represents 18% of the county’s population.

The changes to the county’s urban to rural ratio echo the state’s pattern of population distribution. The shift from rural to urban is apparent over a four‐decade span, shown in the table below. The urban/rural ratio was nearly 20/80 in the 1980s. Recent census data reveal the urban/rural ratio is now nearing 25/75.

PEOPLE PER SQUARE MILE

Bonner County encompasses 1.12 million acres, or about 1,738 square miles. About 39.6% of the county’s land is privately owned. The remainder is owned by the state (15.2%), federal (44.4%) or local governments (0.8%). In the past five decades, the number of people per square mile has nearly tripled. In 1970, there were 9 people per square mile. The number jumped to 14.0 in 1980, eased up to 15.3 in 1990 rose to 21.2 in 2000. By

Bonner County Urban to Rural Ratio (1980‐2010)

2010 2000 1990 1980

Urban 27.6% 22.6% 19.5% 18.5%

Rural 72.4% 77.4% 80.5% 81.5% (U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration

2012) (U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce,Economics and Statistics Administration 2003)


the 2010 census, there were 23.6 people per square mile in Bonner County. This number represents all lands, including government‐owned lands, where few if any people reside. If only the private lands are factored into the formula, the people per square mile would be 58.1. Idaho’s number of people per square mile in 2010 was 19, factoring in all private and government lands.

CITY POPULATIONS IN BONNER COUNTY

All but two cities in Bonner County experienced growth from 2000 to 2010. Annexation of additional land into the city limits affected the rates of growth, as well as migration into the cities. Oldtown and Priest River decreased slightly in population in the past 10 years. The cities of Dover, Kootenai, and Ponderay all grew significantly faster than the county average. Development of larger subdivision projects, construction of new apartment complexes and duplexes and annexation contributed to the growth rates. Sandpoint grew at a rate of 7.8% between 2000 and 2010.

POPULATION MIGRATION

Net migration is a population factor that reveals how many people moved in or moved out of a given area over a period of time. (Natural change, on the other hand, is the difference between births and deaths.)

In the period from 2000 to 2009, Bonner County experienced a net migration rate of 11.15%, compared to Idaho’s 10.39%. The natural (birth/death) change rate was 1.7% during this time frame for Bonner County; Idaho’s was 8.98%. But by 2010‐2012, the net migration for Bonner County was a negative 1.07% and Idaho’s was a mere 0.19%. During this same time frame, Ada County ranked 1st in net migration. Bonner County came

Bonner County City Populations

2010 2000 % change2000‐2010

Clark Fork 536 530 1.1%

Dover 556 342 62.6%

East Hope 210 200 5.0%

Hope 86 79 8.9%

Kootenai 678 441 53.7%

Oldtown 184 190 ‐3.2%

Ponderay 1,137 638 78.2%

Priest River 1,751 1,754 ‐0.2%

Sandpoint 7,365 6,835 7.8%

(Idaho Department of Health and Welfare 2012)


40,050

124 434 269

White PopulationBlack Population

American Indian or Alaska NativeAsian or Pacific Islander

(Idaho Department of Health and Welfare 2012)

Bonner County Population By Race

in 20th, followed by Boundary County at 21st. Kootenai County’s net migration ranked 2nd at 1.2%. Only nine counties showed net migration gains (University of Idaho 2013).

By early spring of 2013, the Idaho Department of Labor reported that from mid‐2011 to mid‐2012, rural Idaho experienced its “largest exodus of people” since the recessions of the 1980s. Of the 33 rural counties, 28 experienced net domestic outmigration. During this time period, 357 people left Bonner County, a change of negative 0.88%. Boundary County saw just 8 people migrate out during this time frame; Kootenai County experienced a gain of 771 (0.89% increase) The 2013 estimates represent a fourth straight year that rural Idaho has seen net outmigration. Statewide, the loss to the rural counties in outmigration is 13,000 people. However, natural growth from births exceeding deaths has offset losses (Idaho Department of Labor 2013).

Boise State University examined the pattern of domestic migration to Idaho for the time period of 2005 to 2009. Not surprisingly, the study shows the largest portion of those moving to Idaho came from California. The states bordering Idaho contributed the highest percentage of newcomers (Boise State University 2012).

In 2011, Idaho Transportation Department reported California represented the largest percentage of out‐of‐state drivers’ licenses surrendered at 18%. Washington followed at 17%, and Oregon and Utah each had a 9% share of the 33,886 drivers’ licenses surrendered by newcomers. All others represented 48% (Idaho Transportation Department, Economics and Research Section n.d.). A table of drivers’ license registration data for Bonner County can be reviewed in the appendices of this component.

SOCIAL FACTORS

RACE

The race/ethnic make‐up of Bonner County has remained relatively unchanged over the decades. Current census data shows 98.0% of the county’s population is white. In 1980, the population was 98.53% white. A table of the race profiles from 1980 to 2010 can be located in the appendices of this component.

GENDER

The female‐to‐male ratio in Bonner County for the 2010 census was 49.62% to 50.38%. Idaho’s was statistically nearly even, with 49.9% female. For Bonner County, this ratio has changed just slightly from the 2000 census of 49.9% and the 1990 census of 50.5% females.

MARRIAGE/DIVORCE

The rate of marriages per thousand in population for Bonner County was 7.5 in 2011, compared with the state rate of 8.6. This rate is the lowest for Idaho in 60 years. Bonner County’s marriage rate was slightly higher in the 1990s. The number stood at 8.2 in 1997. The state’s rate was 12.5. Meanwhile, the divorce rate has held


fairly steady at 5.4 per thousand in population in 2011, up just slightly from the 5.3 rate reported in 1997 (Idaho Department of Health and Welfare 2012).

AGE

One of the most significant changes in Bonner County’s population is the rising number of people age 65 and older. By 2011, the U.S. Census estimated 18% of the county’s population was 65 years old or older, compared to the state percentage of 12.8. The 2000 census revealed 13.1% of the county population had reached the milestone 65th birthday. Past census data indicates the percentage 65 years old and older fluctuated slightly, with 1970 at 12.%; 1980 at 11.3% and 1990 at 14.3%. Bonner County’s median age is one of the highest statewide. Madison County is the youngest with a median age of 22.6 years; Adams County is the “oldest” with a median age of 50. The graph below samples the median age of several Idaho counties. A four‐decade comparison of Bonner County’s age profile follows. Those aged 45 to 54 represented the largest age group in the 2010 and 2000 census. But the 35‐44 age group was the largest in 1990. In 1980, the largest age group by percentage was the 25‐34 bracket.

0

10

20

30

40

50

34.6 34.8

50.044.8

40.445.8

31.7

42.8

31.6

49.0

38.9

28.322.6

40.846.2

33.2

46.9

Median Age (Years) Idaho and Selected Idaho Counties

(2010 Census)

(U.S. Census Bureau 2012)


Bonner County Age Profile 1980‐2010

2010 2000 1990 1980

Age Group

Persons Percent Persons Percent Persons Percent Persons Percent

Under 5

2,142 5.20% 2,100 5.70% 1,872 7.03% 2,141 8.04%

5‐9 2,411 5.90% 2,386 6.50% 2,198 8.26% 1,875 7.04%

10‐14 2,713 6.60% 3,051 8.30% 2,345 8.81% 1,908 7.17%

15‐19 2,447 6.00% 2,765 7.50% 1,705 6.40% 2,012 7.56%

20‐24 1,674 4.10% 1,557 4.20% 1,019 3.83% 1,582 5.94%

25‐34 3,999 9.78% 3,532 9.60% 3,504 11.94% 4,342 19.72%

35‐44 4,613 11.29% 5,815 15.80% 4,700 17.65% 2,828 10.62%

45‐54 6,654 16.28% 6,602 17.90% 2,910 10.93% 2,399 9.01%

55‐59 3,805 9.30% 2,313 6.30% 1,225 4.60% 1,111 4.17%

60‐64 3,410 8.30% 1,879 5.10% 1,332 5.00% 1,240 4.66%

65‐74 4,351 10.64% 2,806 7.60% 2,325 8.73% 1,910 7.17%

75‐84 1,912 4.68% 1,545 4.20% 1,184 4.45% 578 2.17%

Over 85

746 1.80% 484 1.30% 3,030 1.14% 237 0.09%

(U.S. Census Bureau 2012) (Bonner County Planning Department 2003)

BIRTH/DEATH RATE

The U.S. Census Bureau uses birth data from the National Center for Health Statistics and state departments of vital statistics for population estimates and projections. The birth rate expresses births during a specified time period as a proportion of an area’s population at the midpoint of the time period. The rates are expressed per 1,000 population. Likewise, the death rate expresses the deaths during a specified time at the midpoint and is also expressed per 1,000 population (U.S. Census Bureau 2012).

For Bonner County, the birth rate was 20.1 in 1980; 14.3 in 1990; and 10.1 in 2000. By 2010, Bonner County’s birth rate had fallen to 9.7 per thousand in population (Idaho Department of Health and Welfare 2012).

The county’s death rate during the period of 1980 to 1990 was 9.1. From 1990 to 1999, the rate had dropped to 8.2, but edged up to 9 during the following 10 years (Idaho Department of Health and Welfare 2012).


HEALTH

Using Census data, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and other data sources, the University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute ranks the health of most counties in the United States and produces an annual report. County‐level statistics are compared with national and state data sources and trends. County ranks are based upon two broad categories: mortality (how long one lives) and morbidity (quality of life indicators). Health outcomes are based upon equal weighting of mortality and morbidity measures. Health factors are based upon behavioral, clinical, social, economic and environmental factors. The factors used in determining the health rankings included smoking, obesity, low birth weights, access to medical and dental care, education, children in poverty, violent crime rates and other socio‐economic issues.

Bonner County ranked 20th for health outcomes, of 42 of Idaho’s 44 counties studied by the University of Wisconsin, while neighboring counties Boundary and Kootenai ranked 15th and 8th, respectively. Bonner County was 16th for health factors, while Boundary County was 28th and Kootenai County was 14th. Madison County in southeastern Idaho ranked 1st in both health outcomes and health factors. Shoshone County was 41st in both categories. (University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute 2013)

Side by side comparisons of health rankings for the state, Bonner, Boundary, Kootenai and Ada counties can be viewed in the appendices of this document.

HOUSING

Population factors as related to housing statistics are contained in the county’s Housing Component of the Comprehensive Plan. Briefly, the average number of persons per household in Bonner County is listed at 2.37 with the 2010 Census count. The average was 2.58 in 1990 and 2.49 in 2000. The 2010 average is lower than Idaho’s 2.64 people per household (U.S. Census Bureau 2012). The rate of household formation in Bonner County has exceeded the population growth, due to an increase in divorce and age of first marriages. More single people are forming households (Bonner County Planning Department 2003).

Bonner County

Persons Per Household 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Households 5,209 8,814 10,268 14,693 17,100

Persons Per Household

3.01 2.73 2.58 2.49 2.37

(U.S. Census Bureau 2012) (Bonner County Planning Department 2003)


ECONOMIC FACTORS

Economic factors relating to population are covered in detail in the Economic Development Component of the Bonner County Comprehensive plan. The chart and graph below capture recent per capita income trends for Bonner County and comparisons to state and national trends.

Per Capita Income

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Bonner County

$22,067 $22,912 $25,026 $27,349 $29,904 $31,438 $31,843 $29,710 $30,140 $31,433

State of Idaho

$26,042 $26,452 $28,412 $29,544 $31,493 $32,607 $33,110 $30,809 $31,556 $32,881

Percentage of State Average

84.7% 86.6% 88.1% 92.6% 95% 96.4% 96.2% 96.4% 95.5% 95.6%

United States $31,481 $32,295 $33,909 $35,452 $37,725 $39,506 $40,947 $38,637 $39,791 $41,560

Percentage of National Average

70.1% 70.9% 73.8% 77.1% 79.3% 79.6% 77.8% 76.9% 75.7% 75.6%

(Alivia Metts, Regional Economist, Idaho Department of Labor 2012)

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

$45,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

$22,067

$22,912

$25,026

$27,349

$29,904

$31,438

$31,843

$29,710

$30,140

$31,433

$26,042

$26,452

$28,412

$29,544

$31,493

$32,607

$33,110

$30,809

$31,556

$32,881

$31,481

$32,295

$33,909

$35,452

$37,725

$39,506

$40,947

$38,637

$39,791

$41,560

Bonner County

State of Idaho

United States

Per Capita Income

(Alivia Metts, Regional Economist, Idaho Department of Labor 2012)


POPULATION TRENDS & PROJECTIONS Idaho grew by a mere 12,000 people between 2011 and 2012, according to population estimates released in March of 2013. The 0.8% growth was the smallest annual increase in population in 20 years. The U.S. Census Bureau annually publishes population estimates for each state and county, and the nation as a whole, using birth and death rates, migration and risk of in‐ or out‐migration at county and state levels (U.S. Census Bureau 2013). The graph below contains the latest population estimates for Bonner County.

34,000

35,000

36,000

37,000

38,000

39,000

40,000

41,000

42,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

36,835 37,083

37,789

38,57739,094

39,89140,350

40,99641,168

41,403 40,87740,808

40,476

Bonner CountyAnnual Population

Actual decade count and interim

(Idaho Department of Labor n.d.) (U.S. Census Bureau 2012)


ISSUES Growth vs. change – Over the past 100 years, Bonner County has experienced population ups and downs. The rapid increases in population during the 1980s and 1990s gave the county growing pains, as it struggled with over‐capacity schools and public facilities and underfunded services. The gradual population decline of the post‐2010 census turned the focus from “growth” to “change,” as the community faced new challenges associated with declining school enrollment, loss of jobs, vacant homes and businesses and an overall downturn in the economy.

Aging population – Census figures tell the story of an aging population. Bonner County’s scenery, recreational opportunities and proximity to national park systems and urban centers have been attracting retirement‐aged individuals for some time. Idaho ranked second nationwide in a recent AARP poll of best states to retire, thanks to low crime rates and favorable economic factors (American Association of Retired Persons 2012). An aging population brings many new challenges to the community, including the need for adequate medical facilities, emergency services, assisted living, public transportation systems, adult education opportunities and changing public school needs, to name a few.

Increasing population density – The jump from 9 people per square mile to 23.6 people per square mile in four decades is a dramatic change for Bonner County. When coupled with the fact that 60% of the land is publicly owned and 9.5% of the county’s 1.12 million acres is surface water, the loss of “elbow room” is even more dramatic. As the community continues to grow, there will be added challenges to find suitable, developable land while balancing the various goals and objectives of the comprehensive plan.

Areas of city impact and migration to urban areas – Evidence of the move from rural areas to more urbanized communities can be found in Bonner County, as well as most of Idaho. Development in the cities and on the fringes of the incorporated areas places increasing pressures on city services that aren’t always offset by property taxes or other funding sources. Bonner County’s Area of City Impact (ACI) agreements with 10 cities rely on the county’s regulations and comprehensive plan. Current agreements with Clark Fork, Hope, East Hope, Kootenai, Ponderay, Sandpoint, Dover, Oldtown, Priest River and Spirit Lake merely allow a review and comment period by the cities. These agreements were first written in 1978 and have been amended little since. The ACI agreements provide little in the way of thoughtful regional planning for even the immediate future, much less for any 10‐ or 20‐year planning horizons. The county and cities should engage in further ACI discussions that will produce a coordinated plan for these areas most likely to be annexed into cities in the future.

OBJECTIVES & POLICIES Bonner County will keep current with census data and population projections in order to effectively analyze community needs and development impacts.

Population projections will be analyzed on a regular basis, as new data are made available to the county.


Population forecasts and census data will be used to evaluate housing and school needs, transportation and service impacts.

Bonner County will cooperate with its incorporated cities and neighboring counties to address changing population challenges on a regional scale and coordinate planning efforts whenever possible.

ACTION PLAN In order to make informed decisions about public infrastructure, services, amenities and other public needs, Bonner County must have current population data and accurate population forecasts. To meet these needs, prompt updates to the Population Component shall be completed as new U.S. Census data are released. Between the decennial counts, the county should keep abreast of U.S. census population estimates and forecasts from other private and public sources. The population information should be provided to the county decision makers on a regular basis.

Bonner County initiated an annual city/county “Growth Summit” in the mid‐2000s to provide a springboard for discussion amongst community leaders. Topics focused on housing needs, development of regional sewer and water facilities, community bus connections, Area of City Impact agreements and other subjects related to the steady growth of this area. Similar annual or semi‐annual meetings with the county’s cities and adjoining counties should continue. These forums will help each community become aware of similar needs, challenges and solutions. Bonner County should be involved in sponsoring the Growth Summits.

As development proposals come before Bonner County, the Planning Department will cooperate with affected fire districts, schools, libraries, sewer and water districts and other service providers and state and federal agencies to keep them informed of potential changes that could affect them. Their comments will be relayed to the decision‐makers so that required services are in place for future residents and service users.


BIBLIOGRAPHY

Alivia Metts, Regional Economist, Idaho Department of Labor. Idaho Department of Labor. December 2012. labor.idaho.gov/publications/lmi/pubs/bonnerprofile (accessed February 27, 2013).

American Association of Retired Persons. Best Rated States for Retirement. October 2012. (accessed May 2013).

Boise State University. "In‐Migration and Out‐Migration." Boise State University, Public Policy Center. 2012. http://sspa.boisestate.edu/publicpolicycenter/in‐migration‐and‐out‐migration/ (accessed March 26, 2013).

Bonner County Planning Department. Population Component. Comprehensive Plan, Sandpoint, ID: Bonner County, 2003.

Idaho Department of Commerce. "Census Data on Idaho." Idaho Department of Commerce. www.commerce.idaho.gov/business/economic‐indicators/census‐data‐on‐idaho/ (accessed January 24, 2013).

Idaho Department of Health and Welfare. "Idaho Vital Statistics." Idaho Department of Health and Welfare. February 2012. www.healthandwelfare.idaho.gov/portals/0/health/statistics (accessed January 30, 2013).

—. "Idaho Vital Statistics." Idaho Department of Health and Welfare. July 2006. www.healthandwelfare.idaho.gov/portals/0/Health/Statistics/2004%20Reports/2004annualreport2.pdf (accessed March 27, 2013).

Idaho Department of Labor. Idaho Department of Labor News. March 14, 2013. http://labor.idaho.gov/news/NewsReleases/tabid (accessed March 20, 2013).

—. "Labor Market Information." Idaho Department of Labor. www.lmi.idaho.gov/population/tabid/2021 (accessed January 24, 2013).

—. Labor Market Information. http://lmi.idaho.gov/PopulationCensus.aspx (accessed March 21, 2013).

Idaho Transportation Department, Economics and Research Section. "Idaho Transportation Department, Drivers' License Information." Idaho Transportation Department. www.itd.idaho.gov/econ/licenseinfo.htm (accessed March 26, 2013).

—. "Idaho Transportation Department, Vehicle Registration Information." Idaho Transportation Department. January 2012. www.itd.idaho.gov/econ/vehicleReg.htm (accessed March 26, 2013).

National Association of Counties. Healthy Counties. NACO, 2013.

Richard Forstall, Population Division, US Bureau of the Census. US Bureau of the Census. March 27, 1995. www.census.gov/population/cencounts/id190090.text (accessed November 13, 2012).


U.S. Census Bureau. "American FactFinder 2." U.S. Census Bureau. April 26, 2012. factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices (accessed November 15, 2012).

—. "American FactFinder 2." U.S. Census Bureau. 2000. factfinder2.census.gov (accessed November 19, 2012).

—. America's FactFinder. July 1, 2012. http://factfinder2.census.gov (accessed March 14, 2013).

—. CensusViewer. March 11, 2013. (accessed March 14, 2013).

—. Idaho QuickFacts. March 14, 2013. http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states (accessed Month 18, 2013).

—. State & County QuickFacts. 2012. www.quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states (accessed November 2012).

—. Terms & Definitions. June 13, 2012. (accessed May 10, 2013).

—. U.S. Census Bureau Geography. March 7, 2013. http://www.census.gov/geo/reference/ua/urban‐rural‐2010.html (accessed May 3, 2013).

U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce, Economics and Statistics Administration. Idaho: 2010 Census of Population and Housing Unit Counts, CPH‐2‐14. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2012.

U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce,Economics and Statistics Administration. Idaho: 2000 Population and Housing Counts, PHC‐3‐14. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2003.

University of Idaho. Indicators Idaho. April 1, 2013. (accessed May 6, 2013).

University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute. County Health Rankings & Roadmaps. Madison, WI: University of Wisconsin, 2013.


APPENDICES

Census Charts, Tables & Maps


MAP OF IDAHO PERCENT CHANGE IN POPULATION 2000 TO 2010


MAP OF IDAHO 2010 CENSUS RESULTS BY COUNTY


MAP OF BONNER COUNTY POPULATION DISTRIBUTION, 2010 CENSUS


TABLE OF BONNER COUNTY RACE PROFILE (1980‐2010)

Bonner County Race Profile

(1980 ‐ 2010)

1980 1990 2000 2010

Total Percent of Population Total

Percent of Population Total

Percent of Population Total

Percent of Population

White 23,808 98.53% 26,095 98.02% 35,574 96.6% 40,050 98.0%

Black ‐ ‐ 29 0.11% 40 0.1% 124 0.3%

American Indian, Eskimo, or Aleut 186 0.08% 329 1.24% 322 0.9% 434 1.1%

Asian or Pacific Islander 80 0.33% 50 0.19% 118 0.3% 269 0.7%

Other Race 89 0.37% 115 0.43% 155 0.4% ‐ ‐

Persons of Hispanic Origin 235 0.97% 439 1.65% 604 1.6% 911 2.2%

Persons of Hispanic Origin may be any race; therefore, the total will not equal 100 percent. (U.S. Census Bureau 2012, Bonner County Planning Department 2003)

TABLE OF POPULATION PROFILE BY AGE AND SEX (2010)


TABLE OF BONNER COUNTY QUICKFACTS, 2000 CENSUS

QUICKFACTS: A COMPARISON OF BONNER COUNTY & IDAHO’S POPULATION DETAILS 2000

BONNER COUNTY 2000

IDAHO 2000

Population, 2001 estimate 37,479 1,321,006Population percent change, 4/1/00 ‐ 7/1/01 1.7% 2.1% Population, 2000 36,835 1,293,953 Population, percent change, 1990 to 2000 38.4% 28.5% Persons under 5 years old, percent, 2000 5.7% 7.5% Persons under 18 years old, percent, 2000 25.5% 28.5% Persons 65 years old and over, percent, 2000 13.1% 11.3% Female persons, percent, 2000 49.9% 49.9% White persons, percent, 2000 96.6% 91.0% Black of African American persons, percent, 2000 0.1% 0.4% American Indian, Alaska Native persons, percent, 2000 0.9% 1.4% Asian persons, percent, 2000 0.3% 0.9% Persons reporting .other. race, percent, 2000 0.4% 4.2% Persons reporting two or more races, percent, 2000 1.7% 2.0% Persons of Hispanic or Latino origin, percent, 2000 1.6% 7.9% Living in same house in 1995 and 2000, pct. age 5+, 2000 56.2% 49.6% Foreign born persons, percent, 2000 2.0% 5.0% Language other than English spoken at home, 2000 3.4% 9.3% High school graduates, percent of persons 25+, 2000 85.6% 84.7% Bachelor’s degree or higher, pct. of persons 25+, 2000 16.9% 21.7% Persons with disability, age 5+, 2000 6,786 200,498 Mean travel time to work, workers age 16+, 2000 25.5 20.0 Housing units, 2000 19,646 527,824 Home ownership rate, 2000 77.9% 72.4% Housing units in multi‐unit structures, percent, 2000 9.4% 14.4% Median value of owner‐occupied housing units, 2000 $124,500 $106,300 Households, 2000 14,693 469,645 Persons per household, 2000 2.49 2.69 Median household money income, 1999 $32,803 $37,572 Per capita money income, 1999 $17,263 $17,841 Persons below poverty, percent, 1999 15.5% 11.8% Business Quick Facts Bonner County Idaho Private non‐farm establishments, 1999 1,248 36,975 Private non‐farm employment, 1999 10,949 434,461 Private non‐farm employment, percent change, .90‐.99 46.2% 44.7% Non‐employer establishments, 1999 2,947 83,083 Manufacturers. shipments, 1997 ($1000) 382,075 16,952,872 Retail sales, 1997 ($1000) 573,773 11,649,609 Retail sales per capita, 1997 $16,521 $9,623 Minority‐owned firms, percent of total, 1997 3.9% 4.7% Women‐owned firms, percent of total, 1997 22.4% 23.5% Local federal government employment, full‐time, 1997 1,094 46,035 Geography Quick Facts Bonner County Idaho Land area, 2000 (square miles) 1,738 82,747 Persons per square mile 21.2 15.6

Source: US Census Bureau State & County QuickFacts


TABLE OF TOP 20 COUNTIES IN IDAHO BY PERCENTAGE GROWTH, 2010 CENSUS

Percentage of Growth From 2000‐2010 Ranking by Idaho County

Rank Idaho County Percentage of Growth

1 Teton County 69.5%

2 Canyon County 43.7%

3 Madison County 36.7%

4 Jefferson County 36.5%

5 Ada County 30.4%

6 Valley County 28.9%

7 Lincoln County 28.8%

8 Kootenai County 27.4%

9 Bonneville County 26.3%

10 Jerome County 22.0%

11 Twin Falls County 20.1% 12 Adams County 14.4%13 Franklin County 12.9%

14 Camas County 12.7%

15 Blaine County 12.6%

16 Fremont County 12.0%

17 Boundary County 11.2%

18 Bonner County 11.0% 19 Gem County 10.1%20 Payette County 9.9%

(U.S. Census Bureau 2012)


TABLE OF DRIVERS’ LICENSE REGISTRATION


TABLE OF COUNTY HEALTH RANKING COMPARISONS County Health Rankings & Roadmaps (University of Wisconsin Population Health Institute 2013) Idaho Bonner Ada Kootenai Boundary Health Outcomes 20 7 8 15 Mortality 23 6 12 27 Premature death 6,139 6,942 5,007 5,798 7,224 Morbidity 22 14 9 2 Poor or fair health 15% 16% 12% 12% 13% Poor physical health days 3.5 3.8 3.2 3.5 4.1 Poor mental health days 3.3 3.7 3.3 3.1 3.3 Low birth weight 6.7% 6.3% 6.9% 6.0% 3.4% Health factors 16 2 14 28 Health behavior 13 6 20 15 Adult smoking 17% 19% 16% 20% 18% Adult obesity 27% 23% 23% 26% 24% Physical inactivity 20% 20% 15% 20% 27% Excessive drinking 15% 19% 17% 16% 14% Motor vehicle crash death rate 16 17 9 11 38 Sexually transmitted infections 268 162 307 365 119 Teen birth rate 37 34 26 31 33 Clinical care 8 1 4 29 Uninsured 20% 21% 17% 20% 24% Primary care physicians 1,713:1 1,574:1 1,273:1 1,478:1 1,377:1 Dentists 1,688:1 1,966:1 1,326:1 1,652:1 1,848:1 Preventable hospital stays 44 36 35 33 50 Diabetic screening 83% 85% 85% 86% 82% Mammography screening 61% 65% 69% 65% 45% Social & economic factors 25 6 21 38 High school graduation 81% 77% 84% 74% 76% Some college 63% 56% 73% 66% 35% Unemployment 8.7% 12.3% 8.0% 10.3% 13.2% Children in poverty 21% 24% 16% 20% 28% Inadequate social support 17% 18% 14% 16% 19% Children in single‐parent home 24% 28% 24% 28% 23% Violent crime rate 232 120 226 329 112 Physical environment 22 9 31 21 Daily fine particulate matter 8.2 10.8 7.9 10.4 11.0 Drinking water safety 11% 4% 0% 5% 0% Access to recreational facilities 10 17 12 16 18 Limited access to healthy foods 7% 6% 4% 8% 9% Fast food restaurants 46% 33% 50% 46% 29%

Measurements are reported in different scales such as percentages, rank or rates, depending on the category. The following is an explanation of each category listed in the chart above:

Health Outcomes: Represents health of county, measured by how long people live (mortality) and how healthy people feel. The number reported in the chart shows where Bonner County ranks statewide of the 42 counties studied. Mortality: Reflects how long people live. The score is reported as a ranking statewide. Premature death: A measurement based upon all deaths occurring before age of 75. Each death contributes to a total number of years of potential life lost. (e.g., a person who dies at 50 contributes 25 years of lost life to the index.) The figure is reported at a rate per 100,000 people. Morbidity: A quality of life measurement reported as a statewide ranking. Poor or fair health: Percent of adults reporting poor or fair health. Poor physical health days: Number of days per month reported as physically unhealthy. Poor mental health days Number of days per month reported as mentally unhealthy. Low birth weight: Percentage of babies weighing less than 2,500 grams (about 5.5 pounds). Health factors: Reported as a statewide ranking, based upon health behaviors, clinical care, social/economic and physical/environmental factors. Health behavior: Reported as a statewide ranking. Adult smoking: Reported as a percentage.


Adult obesity: Defined as percent of adult population that has a body mass index greater or equal to 30. Physical inactivity: Defined as percentage of adult population that during “past month” did not participate in any physical activity other than job demands. Excessive drinking: Percentage of population who either is a binge drinker (more than 4 drinks for women or 5 for men) or heavy drinker (more than 1 per day for women or 2 per day for men per day on average). Motor vehicle crash death rate: Rate per 100,000 due to on‐road accidents involving motor vehicles. Sexually transmitted infections: Rate per 100,000 population. Teen birth rate: Births per 1,000 females ages 15‐19. Clinical care: A statewide ranking. Uninsured: Percentage of population under 65 without health insurance. Primary care physicians: Ratio of population to primary care physicians in county. Dentists: Ratio of population to dentists in county. Preventable hospital stays: Hospitalization rate per 1,000 Medicare enrollees Diabetic screening: Recorded percent of diabetic Medicare enrollees who received screening. Mammography screening: Percent of female Medicare enrollees age 67‐69 who have had at least one mammogram over a 2‐year period. Social & economic factors: A statewide ranking. High school graduation: Percent of ninth grade cohort who graduates high school in four years. Some college: Estimated the percent of population age 25‐44 with some post‐secondary education. Unemployment: Annual average unemployment rate. Children in poverty: Percent of children living in poverty, defined by federal poverty threshold. Inadequate social support: Percentage of adults without social/economical support, measured by CDC. Children in single‐parent home: Percent of children living in households and raised by single parent. Violent crime rate: Comprised of four offenses: murder and non‐negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault. Physical environment: Statewide ranking. Daily fine particulate matter: Average daily measure of fine particulate matter in micrograms per cubic meter. Drinking water safety: Percentage of population getting drinking water from public water systems with at least one health‐based violation. Access to recreational facilities: Number of recreational facilities per 100,000 population. Limited access to healthy foods: Measured using USDA Food Environment Atlas. Percent of individuals who do not live close to supermarket or large grocery store and are low income. Fast food restaurants: Number of fast‐food outlets over the total number of restaurants in a county.

A full explanation of the ranking, scores and methods can be viewed at the following web link:

http://www.countyhealthrankings.org/ranking‐methods/calculating‐scores‐and‐ranks

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