CRIM 2130 Emergency Management Fall 2016

Chapter 4 – New and Emerging Disasters and Hazards

School of Criminology and Justice Studies University of Massachusetts Lowell

There are more, worse and new types of disasters.

Understand the rationale behind this trend.

Know the different scales, measures, and types of natural disasters.

Explain how humans influence disaster types and trends.

Understand terrorists’ tools for creating disasters.

Identify new disasters around which emergency management agencies are currently taking action.

Quarantelli’s Prediction More disasters

Worse disasters

New types of disasters

Rationale Industrialization puts more people at risk

Higher population densities

More living next to hazardous facilities

Research confirms these trends

Each hazard is distinct with regard to characteristics

Categories of Hazards Natural

Man-made/technological

Terrorist induced

Hazards are: Often combined

Can often lead to another

Tornadoes

Hurricanes

Earthquakes

Floods

Wildfires

Other Events

A tornado is violently rotating column of air that is in contact

with surface from cumulonimbus clouds downward. Tornados can reach 300 MPH

There are about 1200 per year in the United States The most common is between March and August

They tend to occur between noon and midnight

Measured via the Fujita-Pearson or Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale

They tend to follow path of least resistance People in valleys have the greatest exposure to damage

“Tornado Alley” - states with greatest risk: TX, OK, AR, and MO

Safe rooms effective in saving lives

Tornado Trends Source: NOAA Storm Prediction Center

Tornado Alley Elements

Recent significant tornados Joplin, MO (5/22/11)

Disastrous multiple vortex EF5 tornado Reached 1 mile wide at maximum 158 killed; about 1,000 injured Estimated $2.9 billion in damage Tornado’s total track was 22.1 miles long

Moore, OK (5/20/13) EF5 (210 mph peak) 17 mile long path 1.5 miles (at peak) 23 killed; 377 injured 1,150 homes destroyed; $2 billion in damage

Local tornados Worcester, MA (1953)

• F4 • 54 killed • $452 million (in 2012 USD) in damage • Over 10,000 left homeless

Windsor Locks, CT (1979) F4 3 killed $640 million (in 2012 USD) in damage

Brooklyn, NY (2007) EF2 Heavy rains flooded subway system All 24 transit lines impacted during morning rush hour

NOAA defines a hurricane as:

A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained surface wind of 74

MPH or more in the Northern Hemisphere. The term typhoon is

used for Pacific tropical cyclones north of the Equator.

A hurricane begins as tropical wave and grows in intensity

through tropical depression and storm.

Hurricanes are characterized by low barometric pressure, closed

circulation over warm water and a lack of wind shear.

Hurricane season is June 1 - November 30

Effective tracking and warning gives adequate notice to prepare

or evacuate

Damage is caused by high winds, flooding and storm surge

Misc. Hurricane Information

Sudden and rapid shaking of earth’s surface

Caused by shifting of tectonic plates

Sudden, no-notice events

Occur every day in the United States

Most are not even felt

Measured according to Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale (MMI) and Richter Scale

Can cause the collapse of built structures and damage to infrastructure

The Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) scale describes the strength of an earthquake based on its observed effects while the Richter scale describes the earthquake's magnitude by measuring the seismic waves that cause the earthquake.

Most losses in United States Annually most deadly in United States; average 127 deaths

Half of deaths are in automobiles

In United States there is over $5 billion in losses annually

Similar patterns world wide 25,000 deaths annually

$50 billion in losses annually

Most deadly in Asia

U.S. cases dramatically increased since 1987 4 times as many events and over 6 times the area

Causes include: • Warming trends

• Federal banning of strategic burning

• More homes next to forests

Australia experiencing similar patterns More and worse events

Similar causes

2012 Colorado Springs Wildfires

Volcanoes Worldwide

Rare but can be devastating

Disrupt air travel and electronics • 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland

Global Warning Data suggest warming over last century

Causes still not clear • Sunspots and other solar patterns?

• Human generation of carbon dioxide?

Mt. St. Helens, Washington (1980)

Last erupted in the 1850s North face broke away and then a catastrophic eruption followed Slide/flow was 17 miles long 57 people were killed The eruption destroyed:

• 200 homes • 27 Bridges • 15 miles of railroad • 185 miles of highway

Total damage was estimated at $2.74 billion (in 2007 USD) Last activity was in January 2008

Mt. Ranier

Located 52 miles southeast of Seattle

Most glaciated and highest peak in the Lower 48 (14,411 feet)

Dormant stratovolcano (or composite volcano - a conical volcano consisting of many strata from previous events)

Considered a “Decade Volcano” (one of 17 worthy of study because of their history of large, destructive eruptions and proximity to populated areas)

Most recent activity occurred in the mid-1800s

Accounts of activity as late as 1898

Major threats are lahars A lahar is a mud and debris flow of a rock fragments and

water flowing down the slopes of a volcano and/or river valley.

Lahars are extremely destructive with very high flow rates, deep and structures in their path.

Notable lahars include those at Mount Pinatubo (1991) and Nevado del Ruiz (1985)

Approximately 150,000 people live on old lahar deposits near Mt. Rainier

Chemical Incidents Chernobyl

Institute, West Virginia

Gulf Oil Spill

Biological Events Black Plague

1917 Influenza

Recent

SARS

H1N1 Threat

Bhopal, India (1984) Methyl isocynate gas leak from Union Carbide India Limited pesticide plant Between 2200 and 3700 people died immediately Another 8 to 16,000 died in the following weeks and month An estimated 550,000 sustained injury

Institute, WV (1984) Another methyl isocynate gas leak from a Union Carbide plant 130 nearby residents injured Plant officials did not notify local authorities because they believed

that the gas would not leave the plant

BP/Deepwater Horizon Gulf Oil Spill (2010) Semi-submersible, off-shore, oil drilling rig exploded and

caught fire 11 workers killed Rig sank the next day Resulted in the largest oil spill/environmental disaster in

United States history 4.9 million barrels (210 million gallons)

In 1986 Congress passed the Emergency Planning & Community Right to Know Act (EPCRA) Improved local emergency planning to address a wide range of

hazardous materials Communities formed local emergency planning committees

further enhancing communications among organizations EPA regulation forced businesses to keeps records and inform

local emergency management offices about the quantities and type of chemicals on site

Subsequent safety and security regulations by TSA, FRA and PHMSA addresses “need to know” and the dissemination of hazmat information

Black Plague, 14th century Killed an estimated 75-200 million people (30-60% of Europe’s

population) Reduced the total world population from about 460 to 350-375 million Caused by a bacterium that is transferred to humans by fleas, with rats

acting as carriers Periodic reoccurrences

• London Plague (1603) • Russian Plague (1770-1772) • Third Plague Pandemic, Asia (1855-1859)

1918 Influenza Pandemic (1918-1920) Also known as the “Spanish Flu” (H1N1) 500 million people were infected worldwide 50-100 million deaths (3-5% of the world population) Healthy, young adults were hardest hit

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS - 2002-2003) Originated in China Infected 8,273 people in 37 countries with 775 deaths (9.6% mortality rate)

H1N1 Outbreak (Swine Flu - 2009) 43-89 million cases worldwide 14,286 confirmed deaths

During the average flu season, about 36,000 people die in the U.S. Ebola (2014) – CDC data 2/3/15

Countries with Widespread Transmission (Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone) have 13,810 confirmed cases 8,959 and deaths

United States had 4 confirmed cased and one death There are 29 other confirmed cases worldwide with 14 deaths

Why is there more of a concern regarding the spread of communicable diseases today?

Have a high “fear factor” (i.e. dirty bombs) Low probability/high consequence events Radiological Events

Three Mile Island Chernobyl Japan Catastrophe

Nuclear Events World War II nuclear bombs Terrorist threat

International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES)

measures disasters from 0 (deviation) to 7 (major

accident)

Three Mile Island, PA (1979) Worst United States nuclear disaster (INES 2/7)

Partial nuclear meltdown

Small amounts of radioactive gases and iodine were

released into the atmosphere

NRC later authorized the release of 140,000 gallons of

radioactive water into the Susquehanna River

No known residual effects

“Close to home”

Chernobyl, Ukraine (1986) Worst nuclear accident in the world (INES 7/7)

Reactor explosion and fire released large quantities of

radioactive material into the atmosphere, which spread

over much of western the former Soviet Union and Europe

Russia did not acknowledge accident until high radiation

levels were noticed in other countries

31 “official” death; overall impact on cancer rates unknown

There is a 19 mi. radius “zone of alienation”, which will

remain unsafe for the next 20,000 years

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster (2011) Reactors damaged after a tsunami triggered by a 9.0

earthquake, flooding the cooling pump generators Reactors overheated causing explosions in containment

buildings 50,000 households were displaced Worst accident since Chernobyl (released out 10%-30% of

the radiation released by Chernobyl) One of two nuclear accidents with INES 7/7 (Chernobyl) No direct deaths; long-term impact unknown

World War II nuclear bombs Hiroshima, 8/6/45, 16KT yield, approximately 66,000 killed;

69,000 injured Nagasaki, 8/9/45, 21KT yield, approximately 40,000 killed

Terrorist threat Possibility of terrorists obtaining/improvising and

detonating a nuclear device Radiation Dispersal Device (RDD - “Dirty Bomb”)

Not a new means of political violence Four elements

Credible threat of extraordinary violence Purpose or goal Choice of targets for their symbolic nature Intent to influence a broader audience than the immediate victims

Acts of terrorism are on the rise More distinct since September 11, 2001 attacks 2009 for example

11,000 attacks About 15,000 deaths About 24,000 injuries Asia area of many attacks

Natechs are a combination of natural and technological disasters Hurricane Katrina: hurricane, levee failures, flooding and chemical

soup compounded Fukushima Daiichi catastrophe: earthquake, tsunami, nuclear

plant meltdown and radiation compounded Compounding natural disasters

Drought, wildfire, loss of vegetation, mudslides, etc. Computer failures and cyberterrorism

Computers impact virtually every aspect of modern life Failures can be:

Accidental Intentional (Sony, Target, etc.)

Pandemics and Bioterrorism Wide range of pathogens and diseases exist that can kill

thousands or millions each year Pandemics spread world-wide Can be:

Natural Intentional

May be difficult to differentiate natural from terrorism Can be spread through food, air and water Effective response can be difficult

Vaccines/drugs may not be available Diseases may mutate

Hazards from outer space Asteroids

Massive solar flares

Can damage or destroy satellites

o GPS

o Surveillance

o Weather

Can damage or destroy electronics

In short, Quarantelli’s prediction (we face new. Worse and

more catastrophic[phic events) is worth considering