Week 4 New and Emerging Disasters and Hazards...

1 CRIM 2130 Emergency Management

Gary A. Gordon, P.E.

Week 4 – New and Emerging Disasters and Hazards (Chapter 4 in Introduction to Emergency Management, Phillips, Neal and Webb) The objective of Chapter 4, New and Emerging Disasters and Hazards, is to provide the student with an understanding of the:

New types and magnitude of disasters, and rationale behind this trend,

Different scales, measures, and types of natural disasters,

Human influence on the types of disasters and trends,

Terrorists’ tools for creating disasters, and

New disasters around which emergency management agencies are taking action. Chapter Objectives In this chapter, we will look at the current trend of more, worse and new types of disasters and develop an understanding of the rationale behind this trend. We will also look at the different scales, measures and types of natural disasters, and explanations of how humans have influenced disaster types and trends. Disasters can also be caused by terrorism and we will look at the tools used to cause a disaster. Finally, we will identify new disasters around which emergency management agencies are taking action in the context of the disaster cycle. Predictions and Trends Enrico L. (Henry) Quarantelli is an American sociologist who was an innovator in the sociology of disaster. In the 1980s, he predicted that there would be more, worse in scope and magnitude, and new types of disasters. His reasoning was that industrialization, higher population densities and more people living near hazardous facilities has exacerbated the risk to people. His and other research has confirmed his theory. In 1999, Dennis Mileti, professor emeritus at the University of Colorado, Boulder and former director of the Natural Hazards Center, confirmed Quarantelli’s theory. In a study from 1974 to 1994, Mileti found that the cost of disaster losses increased during that time frame and that 7 of the 10 most costly disasters occurred then too. In 1999 Mileti published Disasters by Design: A Reassessment of Natural Hazards in the United States (Natural Hazards and Disasters) supporting this finding. Since then, we have seen many and more diverse and intense disasters. They include the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 impacting Indonesia, Haiti earthquake and Hurricane Katrina. And disasters resulting from terrorist attacks are now a consideration. Threats like the H1N1 (swine flu) virus and 2015 Ebola outbreak bring the realization that disasters cross national borders and can cause global impacts. This creates an environment for emergency managers around the world to be proactive and work on mitigation and preparedness, but have sound response and recovery plans in place. And the complexity poses problems to the emergency manager in addressing a public, private and volunteer partnership.



Indian Ocean Tsunami

What are the Hazards? The hazards associated with disasters are distinct with regard to the characteristics of the event or incident. Hazards are categorized as:

Natural

Man-made or technological

Terrorist induced Hazards are often combined and one can lead to another. The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster was caused by an earthquake, which caused a tsunami, which damaged the nuclear power plant and caused a radiological incident. This disaster is a combined natural and technological disaster, and, based on the chain of events, one led to the other. The conditions, possibilities and potentialities to cause this type of a disaster are the hazards. Can you think of another potential disaster or one that happened that fits both cases?

Levee Breach in New Orleans After Hurricane Katrina

The following sections will discuss the common natural hazards that are experienced. They include tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, wildfires and other events. We will also discuss man-made and technological hazards, to include chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear events, as well as terrorist attacks. The man-made and technological hazards will be discussed in lecture 3, as will new and emerging hazards. Tornados I do not think we need a lengthy discussion or definition of a tornado, as I am sure we all know what they are. Simply stated, though, a tornado is violently rotating column of air that is in



contact with surface from cumulonimbus clouds downward and can reach wind speeds of 300 MPH. The U.S. experiences 1200 tornados each year and tornado season is from March through August. Meteorologically, tornados tend to occur between noon and midnight, and follow the path of least resistance. As such, valleys have the greatest exposure to damage. This can explain why “tornado alley” is in the Central U.S., where the topography is relatively flat. “Tornado alley” is a term used for the area of greatest risk from a historical standpoint and includes the stares of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Missouri. Tornado shelters/cellars or safe rooms are effective in saving lives and are common in “tornado alley”

Map Showing Tornado Alley

Tornados are currently measured by the Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale. The origin of the EF scale began with Dr. Tetsuya (Ted) Fujita of the University of Chicago. In 1971, he introduced the Fujita Scale to measure the intensity of a tornado. The measurement was based on the amount of damage a passing tornado caused over an area. Then in 1973 Fujita, along with Allan Pearson, the head of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (currently the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center) modified the scale by adding other criteria related to the width and length of the tornado path. This scale was called the Fujita-Pearson Scale. It was at this time when tornados were able to be rated soon after occurrence. The Fujita Scale was updated in 2007 and the Enhanced Fujita Scale was introduced. This scale provides a greater accuracy in matching wind speeds to the severity of damage caused by the tornado.

Enhanced Fujita Scale



To help us understand the devastation, a tornado can have and how it affects emergency management and incident command, let’s discuss a few recent tornados. Joplin, MO

In 2011, a disastrous multiple vortex EF5 tornado struck Joplin. At is maximum, it reached one mile wide and its path was about 22.1 miles long. It killed 158 people, injured about 1,000 and caused an estimated $2.9 billion in damage. Moore, OK

In 2013, an EF5 tornado with 210 MPH peak winds struck Moore. Its path was 17 mile long and its width was 1.5 miles at its peak. There were 23 people killed and 377 injured, 1,150 homes were destroyed and an estimated $2 billion in damage was incurred. Northeast Tornados Locally, there is a history of tornados. In 1953, an F4 (measured by the original Fujita Scale) tornado hit Worcester, MA. It killed 54 people, caused an estimated $452 million in damage (in 2012 USD) and left over 10,000 homeless. In 1979 an F4 tornado hit Windsor Locks, CT. It killed 3 people and caused $640 million (in 2012 USD) in damage. In 2007, an EF2 tornado hit Brooklyn, NY. Its heavy rains flooded subway systems and all 24 transit lines were impacted during the morning rush hour. And leys not forget the tornado that hit Revere, MA in 2014. The NWS rated the tornado to be an EF2 with estimated peak winds of 100-120 MPH and it carved a 2-mile path and was 3/8s of a mile wide.

Revere, MA Tornado Funnel Cloud

The lesson learned here is that locations not in “tornado alley” are subject to tornados and emergency managers should plan accordingly. Hurricanes Like tornados, I do not think we need a lengthy discussion or definition of hurricanes. But let’s see what NOAA says about hurricanes. NOAA defines a hurricane as a tropical cyclone with minimum sustained surface wind of 74 MPH in the Northern Hemisphere. The term typhoon is used for Pacific tropical cyclones north of the Equator. A hurricane begins as tropical wave and grows in intensity through tropical depression then to a storm.



Hurricane intensity is measured by the Saffir-Simpson (not ) Scale, which was developed as a simple way to understand the classification of storms that exceed the intensities of tropical depressions. Like the EF scale for tornados, the Saffir-Simpson Scale is graduated by wind speeds. A Category 1 hurricane is the lowest category and has maximum sustained winds of at 74 MPH and a Category 5 hurricane, which is the highest category, has maximum sustained winds exceeding 156 MPH. The classifications provide an indication of damage potential and flooding. However, there is concern that rain, storm surge and other factors are not considered.

Saffir-Simpson Scale

Hurricanes are characterized by low barometric pressure, closed circulation over warm water and a lack of wind shear. Damage is caused by high winds, flooding and storm surge. Effective tracking provides adequate warning to prepare or evacuate, which is a benefit over other natural and manmade disasters. Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. Can you explain why Gulf Coast hurricanes are more intense than hurricanes on the Eastern Seaboard?

In discussing hurricanes, we will talk about Gulf Coast hurricanes throughout the course and in particular Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Ike. So and when we discuss hurricanes at this point, let’s talk about Hurricane/Superstorm Sandy and the No Name Storm. No-Name Storm In 1991, the No-Name Storm, also known as The Perfect Storm, was a nor'easter that absorbed Hurricane Grace. The storm developed off Atlantic Canada in late October and reached its peak intensity before weakening and turning southwesterly. Moving over warmer waters, the storm re-intensified off the Mid-Atlantic States and turned northeastward. On the first of November, it became a hurricane again. Damage totaled over $200 million (in 1991 USD) with a death toll of 13. In Massachusetts, where damage was the heaviest, over 100 homes were destroyed or severely damaged, about 38,000 people lost power and coastal flooding inundated roads and buildings.



Andrea Gail and Crew from the Movie “The Perfect Storm”

Hurricane Sandy In 2012, Hurricane Sandy, also known as Superstorm Sandy, was the deadliest and most destructive hurricane that year. It was a Category 3 storm at its peak, when it hit Cuba, but was Category 2 when it hit the Northeast Coast. Hurricane Sandy is the largest Atlantic hurricane on record with an assessed damage of over $68 billion (in 2013 USD), second only to Hurricane Katrina. Hurricane Sandy killed 233 people along its path in 8 countries. Hurricane Sandy affected 24 states but its impact was particularly severe in New York and New Jersey. Storm surge hit New York City flooding streets, tunnels and subway lines, and cutting power in and around the city. Damage in the U.S. was $65 of the $68 billion (in 2013 USD) worldwide.

Coney Island Amusement Park Post-Hurricane Sandy

Can you determine what other issues, disaster-wise, could have been caused by Hurricane Sandy? Think of the natural and technological disaster model. Also, the lesson learned here is that, although damage associated with Gulf Coast hurricanes is generally more severe, the East Coast is also susceptible to storms causing significant damage. Why do you think that is?



Earthquakes Earthquakes are a sudden and rapid shaking of the earth’s surface caused by a shifting of tectonic plates. Unlike hurricanes and to some degree tornados, they are sudden, no-notice events with little or no warning. I was not aware of this, but earthquakes occur every day in the U.S. and most are not even felt. They can cause the collapse of built structures and damage to infrastructure and cause cascading disasters. Can you name potential cascaded disasters?

Tornado Risk Map

Note that, in the above map, red and yellow represent the areas that are the highest risk and blue and white the lowest. Earthquakes are measured according to the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) and Richter Scales. An earthquake’s effect on the ground's surface is its intensity, which using the MMI Scale, measures the perceptible effects of an earthquake; from people being awaken to damage and destruction. Although many intensity scales have been developed, the one commonly used is the MMI Scale, which was developed in 1931. The scale is composed of increasing levels of intensity that range from imperceptible (Intensity I or II) to catastrophic (Intensity XI or XII). The scale is a subjective rating based on observed effects and does not have a mathematical basis, and, thus, is a more meaningful measure of severity to the non-scientist. The Richter Scale, on the other hand, describes an earthquake's magnitude based on the amplitude of the seismic waves that caused the earthquake and is based on the distance from the epicenter. The MMI and Richter Scales have two different and distinct applications, and measurement techniques. The MMI scale is linear and the Richter scale is logarithmic, which means a magnitude 5 earthquake is ten times as intense as a magnitude 4 earthquake. The MMI Is more directly aligned to the effects on people, which is the primary concern of governments dealing with the aftereffects. The Richter Scale, being technical and objective, is more suited for providing information that can help predict and detect earthquakes, and in developing structural design techniques to survive earthquakes.



Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale

When thinking about U.S. earthquakes, the San Francisco earthquake in 1906 comes to mind. It was a 7.8 magnitude earthquake and killed approximately 3,000 people. Since then, there have been many earthquakes in the U.S. and in particular in California. These, however, were less than 7.0 in magnitude and have had minimal fatalities. Earthquakes in the U.S. represent a very small percentage of the earthquakes throughout the world and experience far less fatalities and damage. Can you explain why this is true? Experts have asked why China’s earthquakes are so damaging. Can you find some reasons? How about population, density of the population, prevalence of low-quality buildings and inability to preempt excess casualties? As we progress further into this course, we will be discussing the Haiti and Nepal earthquakes with regard to the disaster cycle. Floods On an annual basis, floods account for significant losses and economic damage in the U.S averaging 127 fatalities yearly. Over half of the fatalities are in in automobiles. The economic damage and losses annually is over $5 billion. Flooding displays similar patterns worldwide with 25,000 fatalities and $50 billion in losses. Flooding is most deadly in Asia and around the world. The damage and loss of life experienced in the U.S. pales in comparison to what happens worldwide. . Since 2000, there have been 25 major floods. A majority of them have been from tropical storms and hurricanes. In 2001, Texas and Louisiana were flooded because of Tropical Storm Allison floods in Louisiana and Texas. The flooding was caused by the tropical storm that sat and spun over Houston and Southeastern Texas for several days before moving. Heavy rains



fell along the western Gulf Coast that week, with rainfall estimates of 37 inches near Houston and 41 inches west of Beaumont. Damage from the storm was estimated near $6 billion (in 2001 USD) and 41 people perished from the floods.

Tropical Storm Allison Flooding at I-10 in Houston, TX

Locally and from March 28–30, 2010, a major storm brought 12 inches of rain and flooded the Pawtuxet River, Blackstone River and numerous other rivers lakes, ponds and streams in Rhode Island. The Pawtuxet River crested over 20 feet; 12 feet above flood stage. A seasonal high tide led to severe coastal flooding in Bristol, RI and 4 Rhode Island's counties were declared emergency disaster zones. A sewage treatment plant in the area failed contaminating the rainwater with raw sewage affecting Warwick, Cranston and Johnston. Many towns in Southeastern Massachusetts were also affected by the flood. The flooding had a cascading effect by way of overflowing the sewage treatment plant and causing it to fail.

Preparing for Hazmat Response in Rhode Island

Wildfires Wildfires have dramatically increased since 1987. There have been 4 times as many events and over 6 times the area affected since then. Causes for the increase includes warming trends, federal ban on strategic burning and more housing developments built near forests and wooded areas. Australia is experiencing similar patterns. In addition to the persistent wildfires in California, the Waldo Canyon fire in 2012 impacted over 18,000 acres northwest of Colorado Springs involving the Pike National Forest and adjoining areas. Over 32,000 residents were evacuated and a partial evacuation of the United States Air Force Academy was required.



There were 346 homes destroyed, major roadways were closed and the cost exceeded $454 million.

Waldo Canyon Fire, Colorado Springs, CO

California wildfires are caused by the state’s dry, windy and hot weather conditions. Wildfires are most prevalent from late spring through autumn as a result of the environment. The wildfires are exacerbated by strong, dry winds, known as “Diablo Winds” in Northern California and “Santa Ana Winds” in the south. Wildfires in California are becoming more dangerous and costly. The cost of paying to fight the wildfires is about $3 billion annually; three times what it cost in the 1990s. The cost in damage to property is in the billions of dollars. The Cedar Wildfire in 2003 destroyed over 273,000 acres in San Diego County. It destroyed over 2800 structures, killed 15 people and was one of the largest recorded wildfire in California history. The Cedar Wildfire was one of 15 wildfires burning in Southern California in October that year. Collectively, these wildfires became known as the "2003 Firestorm" or the "Fire Siege of 2003" and destroyed an estimated 800,000 acres.

Cedar Wildfire, San Diego

Wildfires can be very deadly. One of the challenges to the emergency manager is that a wildfire can have cascading effects. If the Waldo canyon wildfire was not contained and it jumped U.S. Highway 24 to the south and Interstate Highway 25 to the south and east, the City of Colorado



Springs, Fort Carson and Peterson AFB could have been affected. Also, the wildfire was contained at the western edge of the United States Air Force Academy. What cascading impacts do you think the wildfire could have had on the City of Colorado Springs and these military installations? Other Natural Hazards Although there are other types of natural hazards, we will focus on volcanos, as they create major disasters and require significant response planning and preparedness. Volcanos are a rare worldwide event, but can be devastating and disrupt air travel and electronics, such as the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland. The other natural hazards that are known by the general population and make the news are:

Global Warning - Data suggests that there has been a recognizable warming over last century, but the causes are not clear and heavily debated.

Sunspots and other solar patterns - They are more evident and we see more activity reported in the news. Do you know why?

Carbon dioxide- This gas is one of the “Greenhouse Gases”. We could discuss the Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland in 2010, but we will focus on Mt. St. Helens and Mt. Rainier. This is because they required emergency management within the U.S. Mt. St. Helens, Washington Prior to its eruption in 1980, Mt. St, Helens last erupted in the 1850s. The north face broke away and then a catastrophic eruption followed that caused a rock slide and lava flow 17 miles long. The eruption destroyed 200 homes, 27 bridges, 15 miles of railroad and 185 miles of highway. It killed 57 people. The total damage was estimated at $2.74 billion (in 2007 USD). Mt. St. Helens was last active in January 2008.

Mt. St. Helens Eruption

Mt. Rainier, Washington Although considered an active volcano, there is no active evidence that Mr. Rainier will erupt any time soon. Located 52 miles southeast of Seattle, it is the most glaciated and highest peak in the Lower 48 States at 14,411 feet in elevation. It is a dormant stratovolcano or composite volcano (conical volcano consisting of many strata from previous events). It is considered a



“Decade Volcano” (one of 17 worthy of study because of their history of large, destructive eruptions and proximity to populated areas). The most recent activity occurred in the mid-1800s with accounts of activity as late as 1898.

Seattle with Mt. Rainier in Background

In addition to what we consider disastrous form a volcano eruption (i.e. lava flow and ash), a major threat is a lahar. A lahar is a mud and debris flow of a rock fragments and water flowing down the slopes of a volcano and/or river valley. They are extremely destructive with very high flow rates and are deep, and destroy structures in their path. Notable lahars include those at Mount Pinatubo in 1991 and Nevado del Ruiz in 1985. The danger of a lahar should Mt. Rainier erupt is that approximately 150,000 people live on old lahar deposits near Mt. Rainier.

Lahar Caused by Mt. Pinatubo Eruption

Because a volcano eruption in the U.S. is not very common and they directly impact few states, planning and preparing for an eruption is not a major consideration. The challenge is to include volcano eruptions in an all hazards emergency management plan, where appropriate. Chemical and Biological Hazards When discussing chemical and biological hazards, it should be understood that these are man-made events. However, they can be the result of a natural disaster or be terrorist-related. Although not a chemical and biological incident, an example of a cascading disaster would be



the earthquake and tsunami that caused the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011. The examples we discuss herein will be accidents, but you can extrapolate from what occurred and see how the disaster could be caused by a natural disaster or terrorist intent. For chemical incidents, we will discuss Chernobyl, incident in Institute, West Virginia and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. For biological events, we will discuss the Black Plague, 1917 influenza outbreak, SARS, H1N1 threat and, briefly, the 2014 Ebola outbreak. Chemical Incidents Bhopal, India In 1984, a Union Carbide India Limited plant in Bhopal, India had a chemical leak involving methyl isocynate gas. The leak killed between 2.200 and 3.700 people immediately, with another 8,000 dying in the following weeks and another 8,000 in the months that followed. The gas leak injured an estimated 550,000 people. This accident is considered as one of the world's worst industrial disasters. There are differences as to the cause of the disaster. One theory is that faulty management and deferred maintenance caused a backflow of water into the tank triggering the disaster. Another theory contends that water entered the tank through an act of sabotage. It has been said that the amount of gas leaked from the plant is less than one-half of a rail tank car. This creates a potential issue of a lethal gas or hazmat disaster involving rail tanks cars.

Lac-Megantic Quebec Hazmat Incident

The photograph, above, is of the 2013 Lac-Megantic railroad disaster involving hazmat. A 73-car freight train carrying Bakken crude oil derailed near the downtown area of Lac-Mégantic, Quebec (population of about 6,000 people) causing multiple tank cars to derail, explode and catch fire. The blast radius was estimated to be 1 kilometer. The disaster caused 47 fatalities and more than 30 buildings in the town's center were destroyed. Of the 39 downtown buildings that were not destroyed, 36 had to be demolished because of contamination of the underlying soils. The death toll of 47 made this the 4th deadliest rail accident in Canadian history and the deadliest involving non-passenger operations.



The incident became a disaster for several reasons; primarily due to the volatility of the Bakken crude oil being transported. Bakken crude is a light sweet crude oil that is easier to process directly into gasoline than heavier crude oils. It is found in Montana, North Dakota, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. Bakken crude has a higher volatility than that of West Texas and other crude oils (but less than gasoline), as measured by its Reid Vapor Pressure. This makes it more flammable. The Lac-Megantic disaster was a watershed event with regard to the safety of transporting Bakken crude and other hazmat by rail. Railroads now have to look at alternate routes to reduce the risk of an incident in a populated area. Emergency mangers, however, are concerned with the ability to respond to a disaster in a rural area because of limited first responder resources and potential long distances that would have to be traveled to an incident. This is a current topic of discussion with regard to safety practices, policies and regulations, and is being addressed by local, state and federal governments, the railroads and the petrochemical industry. Institute, WV

Another chemical leak was at a Union Carbide plant in Institute, WV in 1984. There were 130 nearby residents injured. It is apparent that the injuries, in part, were because plant officials did not notify local authorities because they believed that the gas would not leave the plant. Hence, a shelter-in-place advisory was not issued. The chemical that leaked was first identified as aldicarb oxime. Then, Union Carbide said that aldicarb oxime was one of constituents of the cloud of gas. Aldicarb oxime is combined with methyl isocyanate (the same gas as in the Bhopal, India accident) to produce aldicarb; a compound used in pesticides. The Union Carbide Institute plant manufactures aldicarb, but company officials denied that methyl isocyanate was one of the chemical leaked. BP/Deepwater Horizon Gulf Oil Spill (2010) This widely reported incident occurred in 2010 in the Gulf of Mexico off the Mississippi River delta. The incident was an explosion and fire aboard a semi-submersible, off-shore, oil drilling rig. The explosion and fire killed 11 workers. The rig sank the next day. The disaster resulted in the largest oil spill and environmental disaster in U.S. history spilling or releasing about 4.9 million barrels (210 million gallons) of oil.

Deepwater Horizon Fire



In 1986, Congress passed the Emergency Planning and Community Right to Know Act (EPCRA). This act was to improve local emergency planning to address a wide range of disasters involving hazardous materials. As a result of the legislation, communities formed local emergency planning committees to ensure communications among the organizations are enhanced. The regulation fostered businesses to keep records and inform local emergency management offices about the quantities and type of chemicals on site. Subsequent to this and based on recent events, safety and security regulations by TSA, the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) and the Pipeline and Hazardous Material Safety Administration (PHMSA) address a “need to know” and the dissemination of hazmat information. Biological Events Biological events (or disease in simple terms) have occurred since the beginning of time. There were some well-known plagues in medieval times through the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in the early 2000s to the 2014 Ebola outbreak. When reading the following biological events, think about how they can be introduced and spread, and what mitigation measures would be needed to cure and eradicate them. Black Plague, In the 14th century, an estimated 75-200 million people (30-60% of Europe’s population) died from the Black Plague. This was alleged to reduce the world’s population from about 460 to 350-375 million. The Black Plague was caused by a bacterium that is transferred to humans by fleas, with rats acting as the carrier. There have been periodic occurrences, to include London in 1603, Russia from 1770 to 1772 and Third Plague Pandemic in Asia from 1855 to 1859. 1918 Influenza Pandemic From 1918 through 1920, an influenza pandemic, also known as the “Spanish Flu” (H1N1), infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide, including remote Pacific islands and the Arctic. An estimated 50 to 100 million people died, which represented 3% to 5% of the world's population. Healthy, young adults were the hardest hit group. Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) From 2002 through 2003 SARS infected about 8,300 people in 37 countries with 775 deaths (9.6% mortality rate). SARS originated in China (Hong Kong).

H1N1 Outbreak (Swine Flu) There were a reported 43-89 million cases of Swine Flu worldwide in 2009 and over 14,000 confirmed deaths. To put this in perspective and during the average flu season in the U.S. about 36,000 people die from the illness. 2014 Ebola Outbreak From February 2015 Centers for Disease Control (CDC) data, the Ebola outbreak affected several countries with widespread transmission in West Africa (Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone), as well as other countries. In and through February 2015, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra



Leone experienced 13,810 confirmed cases and 8,959 deaths. Outside of the widespread transmission area, there were 29 other confirmed cases worldwide with 14 deaths. The U.S. had 4 confirmed cases and one death.

U.S. Army Ebola Treatment Facility in Liberia

Why is there more of a concern regarding the spread of communicable diseases today? Worldwide air travel has made the spread of communicable diseases easier and with the 2 to 21 day incubation period of Ebola, one may not display symptoms when flying commercially. There was much discussion about U.S. travel restrictions to and from the widespread transmission areas in West Africa and certain parts of the world where there were transportation hubs. A major outbreak like Ebola could severely stretch our resources and ability to manage the event. Hopefully, the 2014 outbreak will provide the impetus for CDC and other organizations to plan and prepare for future outbreaks. Lessons learned is a good teacher. We think of biological events as occurring in nature, but what about a biological attack? Tom Clancy wrote, in Rainbow Six, about a biotoxin terror attack planned for the Olympic Games in Sydney, Australia. Although Rainbow Six is fiction, the threat of a biological attack is real. Emergency managers and planners must look at preparing for a biological incident. The challenge is to not only consider an incident due to natural causes, but one induced or exacerbated by terrorist intent. Radiological and Nuclear Nuclear or radiological disasters are low probability/high consequence events and have a high “fear factor” (i.e. dirty bombs). In discussing radiological and nuclear disasters, we will look at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima Daiichi. We will also discuss the world’s entry into the nuclear weapons era and terrorist threat. To determine severity, radiological and nuclear disasters are measured by the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). The scale ranges from “0”, which is a deviation with no safety significance, to “7”, which is a major accident. The INES was introduced by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to describe the comparative magnitude of nuclear accidents. Like the Richter Scale for earthquakes, the scale is logarithmically based, but not quantitative, where each level represents a nuclear accident about ten times more severe than



the previous level. However, a nuclear accident is more subject to interpretation and the INES has a limited ability to assist emergency managers in disaster deployment.

International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale

Nuclear Events The potential for nuclear events came at the end of World War II with the dropping of the atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. “Little Boy”, which was dropped on Hiroshima, was a 16 kiloton (KT) yield device that destroyed about 5 square miles of the city and killed approximately 66,000 people. “Fat man”, which was dropped on Nagasaki, was a 21KT yield device that killed approximately 40,000 people. Tens of thousands of additional deaths and acute illnesses occurred from the after-effects of radiation. There is the threat of a nuclear event from terrorist intent. With the way the world is today, procuring nuclear devices is easier that we would like and there is the possibility of terrorists obtaining them. This includes the possibility of terrorists illicitly procuring nuclear devices to cause damage on the scale of a Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Further, terrorists improvising nuclear devices are a possibility that is being watched. I am not sure that improvised nuclear devices would be as devastating as the ones used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, but (improvised) radiation dispersal devices (RDD) or commonly known as “Dirty Bombs” are more possible. “Dirty Bombs” are RDDs that combine conventional explosives with radioactive material, such as medical waste, and are more for causing fear than creating a radiological event. Emergency managers would be challenged when planning for a nuclear event. The devastation will likely be horrific and ability to get in will be limited. First responders will have to have proper personal protective equipment (PPE), specialized equipment and vehicles, and access will not be immediate. In addition to FEMA and other traditional response agencies at all levels, specialized agencies will have to be included that handle nuclear incidents. Planning will be an important part of preparedness, as agency and resource coordination will be very important to, among other things, maintain scene safety, provide the required response assets, manage volunteers and maintain site security. Three Mile Island, PA The partial nuclear meltdown of one of the nuclear reactors at Three Mile Island nuclear generating plant near Harrisburg, PA in 1979 is considered the worst U.S. nuclear disaster. It ranked a 2 (incident) of 7 on the INES scale. A combination of stuck valves, misread gauges and poor decisions led to a partial meltdown one of the reactor cores. The event released small amounts of radioactive gases and iodine into the atmosphere and the Nuclear Regulatory



Commission (NRC) later authorized the release of 140,000 gallons of radioactive water into the Susquehanna River. There are no known residual effects from the accident, but it brought the realism of a nuclear disaster “close to home”. In Eastern Massachusetts and Southern New Hampshire there are 2 nuclear plants; Seabrook Nuclear Generating Station and Plymouth Nuclear Station. Both are in coastal communities and Plymouth Nuclear Station is on Cape Cod Bay. Emergency managers must consider, when planning for disasters, a man-made failure of the nuclear plant itself, a natural disaster like a hurricane causing a Fukushima Daiichi -type failure or terrorist attack. Why do you think a terrorist attack at the Seabrook Nuclear Generating Station and Plymouth Nuclear Station are possible?

Plymouth Nuclear Station

Chernobyl, Ukraine In 1986, a reactor explosion and fire at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant released large quantities of radioactive material into the atmosphere, which spread over much of western the former Soviet Union and Europe. It ranked a 7 (major accident) of 7 on the INES scale and is considered to be the worst nuclear accident in the world. The cause of the accident was reported to be a flawed reactor design that was operated by poorly trained personnel. Russia did not acknowledge the accident until high radiation levels were noticed in other countries. There were 31 “official” deaths reported. The United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation reported that, except for an increase in thyroid cancer, there was no evidence of major health impacts related to radiation exposure 20 years after the accident. They are resettling areas from which people were evacuated according to the World Nuclear Association and, in 2011; Chernobyl was officially declared a tourist attraction



Chernobyl

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster, Japan In 2011, a 9.0 earthquake in the North Pacific Ocean caused a tsunami that caused flooding that damaged the cooling pump generators. This caused the reactors to overheat causing explosions in containment buildings. Approximately 50,000 households were displaced and there were no direct deaths. But the long-term impacts are unknown. This accident was ranked a 7 (major accident) of 7 on the INES scale and is the only other INES 7/7 accident. It is the worst accident since Chernobyl; releasing 10%-30% of the radiation released by Chernobyl.

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant before the Disaster

What comparison can you make with regard to risk, from what was experienced at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant, at the Plymouth Nuclear Station and to a somewhat lesser degree the Seabrook Nuclear Generating Station? Terrorism Terrorism is simply an act of premeditated violence and intimidation to further a geopolitical cause. Acts of terrorism are on the rise and have been more distinct since the September 11, 2001 attacks. In 2009, for example, there were 11,000 terrorist attacks causing about 15,000 deaths and 24,000 injuries. Asia is where many of the attacks occur. Intimidation is terrorism because the intent is to make you change your way of life, be fearful, disrupt economies, etc. As such, a terrorist does not have to kill or defeat an adversary to win. There are 4 widely known elements of political violence or terrorism. They are:

Credible threat of extraordinary violence



Purpose or goal

Choice of targets for their symbolic nature

Intent to influence a broader audience than the immediate victims

With regard to credible threats, you must look at the hardness of the intended target, ability to execute the threat, and resolve and credibility of those making the threat. Is the intended target of strategic value, economic importance or a place or thing that has symbolic value? The purpose and goal of the terrorist is a key factor in choosing a target. If the goal is to impact the country’s economy, then financial institutions will be targeted. Government buildings and the military will be targeted to adversely impact a government and houses of worship if trying to further a religious ideology. Targeting the Statue of Liberty, St. Louis Arch, Golden Gate Bridge or anything of a symbolic nature, would influence a broader audience than those immediately affected. The World Trade Center Twin-Towers were symbolic of New York City and housed government offices and financial houses. Its destruction rocked the very foundation of our feeling of safety in the U.S. and changed everything. Not just the murderous killings, the terrorists affected our way of life and how we do business.

Firefighters Raising Flag after 9/11

The focus is on soft targets, such as shopping malls, sporting events, etc. The Boston Marathon Bombings is an example of a soft target. It affected not only those there, but the nation as a whole. It has created a fear that any other sporting event could be attacked. For example, those going to Boston Red Sox, Bruins and Celtics or New England Patriots games have to be screened via hand-wanding or a walkthrough metal detector. However, there is still a motivation for terrorist to take down or use airplanes in an attack.



Boston Marathon Bombing

New and Emerging Hazards Earlier in this chapter, we discussed natural, man-made, chemical and biological, and nuclear and radiological hazards. Terrorism was also discussed as it relates to a disaster and potential hazard. We also discussed NaTechs, which are a combination of natural and technological disasters. We looked at two well-known NaTechs; Hurricane Katrina, where levee failures caused flooding and contamination, and the Fukushima Daiichi catastrophe where an earthquake and tsunami caused a nuclear plant accident. Compounding Disasters There are also compounding natural disasters. The flood and tsunami that caused the Fukushima Daiichi catastrophe NaTech would have been a compounding natural disaster without the nuclear power plant accident. A drought, although not necessarily considered a natural disaster, can cause wildfires, permanent loss of vegetation, mudslides, etc. The California wildfires often occur during drought periods. The recent storms in the Midwest are causing tornados and floods and, because the Midwest had been essentially dry, flash floods occurred. Computer Failures and Cyberterrorism Since computers impact virtually every aspect of modern life, computer failures and cyberterrorism are a real concern. The failures could be accidental or intentional. Some of the intentional failures or hacking are focused on large businesses, such as Sony and Target, and some at financial institutions. Hacking into air traffic control systems, train control systems and nuclear power plant supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems could have more than economic impacts. As a result, the FAA, railroad and nuclear power plant emergency managers must consider intrusion detection, hardware and infrastructure hardening, etc. when planning for disasters. The recent Amtrak accident in Philadelphia, where a train derailed going twice the speed limit, could have been the result of operator error, equipment failure, track conditions or signal system failure or intrusion. If the latter, the rules of the game have just changed.



Pandemics and Bioterrorism We discussed biological events and the 2014 Ebola outbreak. Pandemics and bioterrorism are a real threat given the terrorists’ will to mass murder and increased global mobility. There are a wide range of pathogens and diseases (i.e. weaponized anthrax) that exist that could kill thousands or millions of people. Pandemics could spread world-wide and be a natural occurrence of intentionally spread (Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six). With pandemics, it may be difficult to differentiate between natural occurrences or those from terrorism. The ability to spread the pathogens and diseases via food, air and water could make containment difficult. And, effective response could be difficult; taxing emergency medical personnel and resources. Further, vaccines and drugs may not be available in the quantities needed and the diseases could mutate. We saw the lack of experience and proper protocols (and training) in Dallas, TX when the first Ebola cases emerged in the U.S. Emergency managers from the hospitals, CDC, fire and police departments, emergency medical services and local first responders should plan for, train in and exercise for pandemic and bioterrorism events. Hazards from Outer Space Finally, we can look at hazards from outer space. They could be space debris, asteroids and solar flares. The latter could damage or destroy electronics; damage or destroy satellites, which would affect, among other things, our ability to navigate, as GPSs would be impacted; conduct surveillance of any type; and predict weather. Do you know how a solar flare could transition into a NaTech? How would you employ emergency management if an asteroid were heading to earth?

Crew from Movie Armageddon

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Week 4 New and Emerging Disasters and Hazards...

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