124 CHAPTER SIX INTRODUCTION The composition of the atmosphere has been gradually changing over the past millions of years, it is only during the last two to three hundred years, since the beginning of the industrial revolution in Europe and North America, however, that man has begun to affect this change. The process has accelerated over the past 50 years as more countries have also embarked on rapid economic development. This chapter reviews some of the important trends dealing with local air quality and regional concerns such as haze and acid rain, as well as the regional contributions to, and implications of, global climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion. The policies and response strategies that are being formulated or implemented in the Asian and Pacific Region to address these concerns are also discussed. AIR POLLUTION A. Types of Air Pollution-Indoor and Outdoor While this chapter deals with the issues of pollution to the atmosphere and climate locally, regionally and globally, it is also important to note the significant hazards posed by indoor air pollution. For example, where a large part of the population still depends on traditional biomass fuels for cooking and heating, indoor air pollution may be a larger health hazard than outdoor pollution. The burning of such fuels in a confined space usually produces high levels of smoke and other pollutants. Estimates (for the Asian and Pacific Region) indicate that the concentrations of particulates may exceed WHO guidelines by factors of ten or more (WHO 1997) in many households, particularly in South Asia. The data in Table 6.1 suggest that tens of millions of people in Asia and the Pacific are being exposed to indoor levels of air pollution comparable to the notorious outdoor levels during the “London smog” of 1952, in which about 4 000 deaths occurred due to respiratory diseases. B. Sources of Air Pollution The combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and natural gas) is the principal source of air pollution in all urban areas, along with the burning of biomass such as firewood, agricultural wastes and animal wastes in rural areas and some cities. Most of the combustion of fossil fuels takes place in industries, homes, for transportation, and for the generation of electricity. However, in the vast majority of Asian cities, transportation is the largest source of air pollution. The number of vehicles in Asian cities has been growing exponentially over the last two decades. In Delhi and Manila, for example, they have been doubling every 7 years (ADB 1999). A large portion of vehicles in most Asian cities use diesel fuel, and contribute greatly to the emissions of particulates, especially those that are less than 10 microns in size and are respirable (PM 10 ). Several countries, including India, Pakistan, and the Philippines, still subsidize diesel fuels. In many countries, transportation fuels contain lead and high amounts of sulphur and use older engine designs that emit more pollution than modern ones. Since vehicles in developing countries are typically kept for longer periods than in the industrialized countries, they continue to contribute a substantial share of the air pollution in urban areas as their engines become increasingly less efficient. The situation is compounded by the region’s reliance on motor cycles and three-wheel vehicles which frequently use two stroke engines and consequently produce up to 10 times more hydrocarbons than normal 4-stroke engines (ADB 1999). Table 6.1 Indoor Concentrations of Particulate Matter due to Biomass Combustion Number Location of Studies Duration Concentration Size PR China 8 Various 2 600-2 900 All Pacific 2 12 hours 1 300-5 200 All South Asia 15 Cooking 630-820 All Cooking 850-4 400 <10 microns period Non-cooking 880 <10 microns 24 hours 2 000-2 800 <10 microns Various 2 000-6 800 All Urban infants, 400-520 <10 microns 24 th Source: Adapted from WRI 1998 C. Current Levels of Air Pollution During the process of industrialization in Europe and North America, air quality declined significantly. The same pattern is currently being observed in Asia and the Pacific, where in many urban areas, air pollution greatly exceeds levels considered safe by the World Health Organization (WHO). Of the 15 cities in the world with the highest levels of particulate matter, 12 are located in Asia (ADB 1999). Furthermore, 6 of these cities also have the highest levels of atmosphere sulphur dioxide. Figure 6.1 depicts levels of total suspended
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CHAPTER SIX
INTRODUCTION
The composition of the atmosphere has beengradually changing over the past millions of years, itis only during the last two to three hundred years,since the beginning of the industrial revolution inEurope and North America, however, that man hasbegun to affect this change. The process hasaccelerated over the past 50 years as more countrieshave also embarked on rapid economic development.
This chapter reviews some of the importanttrends dealing with local air quality and regionalconcerns such as haze and acid rain, as well as theregional contributions to, and implications of, globalclimate change and stratospheric ozone depletion.The policies and response strategies that are beingformulated or implemented in the Asian and PacificRegion to address these concerns are also discussed.
AIR POLLUTION
A. Types of Air Pollution-Indoor and OutdoorWhile this chapter deals with the issues of
pollution to the atmosphere and climate locally,regionally and globally, it is also important to notethe significant hazards posed by indoor air pollution.For example, where a large part of the populationstill depends on traditional biomass fuels for cookingand heating, indoor air pollution may be a largerhealth hazard than outdoor pollution. The burningof such fuels in a confined space usually produceshigh levels of smoke and other pollutants. Estimates(for the Asian and Pacific Region) indicate that theconcentrations of particulates may exceed WHOguidelines by factors of ten or more (WHO 1997) inmany households, particularly in South Asia. Thedata in Table 6.1 suggest that tens of millions ofpeople in Asia and the Pacific are being exposed toindoor levels of air pollution comparable to thenotorious outdoor levels during the “London smog”of 1952, in which about 4 000 deaths occurred due torespiratory diseases.
B. Sources of Air PollutionThe combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and
natural gas) is the principal source of air pollution inall urban areas, along with the burning of biomasssuch as firewood, agricultural wastes and animalwastes in rural areas and some cities. Most of thecombustion of fossil fuels takes place in industries,homes, for transportation, and for the generation ofelectricity. However, in the vast majority of Asiancities, transportation is the largest source of airpollution.
The number of vehicles in Asian cities has beengrowing exponentially over the last two decades. InDelhi and Manila, for example, they have beendoubling every 7 years (ADB 1999). A large portionof vehicles in most Asian cities use diesel fuel, andcontribute greatly to the emissions of particulates,especially those that are less than 10 microns in sizeand are respirable (PM10). Several countries, includingIndia, Pakistan, and the Philippines, still subsidizediesel fuels. In many countries, transportation fuelscontain lead and high amounts of sulphur and useolder engine designs that emit more pollution thanmodern ones. Since vehicles in developing countriesare typically kept for longer periods than in theindustrialized countries, they continue to contributea substantial share of the air pollution in urban areasas their engines become increasingly less efficient.The situation is compounded by the region’s relianceon motor cycles and three-wheel vehicles whichfrequently use two stroke engines and consequentlyproduce up to 10 times more hydrocarbons thannormal 4-stroke engines (ADB 1999).
Table 6.1 Indoor Concentrations of ParticulateMatter due to Biomass Combustion
C. Current Levels of Air PollutionDuring the process of industrialization in
Europe and North America, air quality declinedsignificantly. The same pattern is currently beingobserved in Asia and the Pacific, where in manyurban areas, air pollution greatly exceeds levelsconsidered safe by the World Health Organization(WHO).
Of the 15 cities in the world with the highestlevels of particulate matter, 12 are located in Asia(ADB 1999). Furthermore, 6 of these cities also havethe highest levels of atmosphere sulphur dioxide.Figure 6.1 depicts levels of total suspended
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particulates (TSP), sulphur dioxide (SO2), andnitrogen dioxide (NO2) against WHO guidelines, inselected Asian cities. The levels of TSP in severalcities are three to four times those recommended byWHO although the situation for SO2 and NO2 is better,with only a few large cities greatly exceeding therecommended safe level.
D. Trends in Outdoor Air PollutionAir pollution problems resulting from
industrialization tend everywhere to be treated in acurative rather than preventative manner. Pollutionproblems are thus treated when they become highenough to present a health risk, and/or whencountries achieve a certain degree of affluence.
Japan was the first Asian country toindustrialize, and thus it was also the first to face airquality problems serious enough to encourage theformulation and implementation of policies toaddress the situation. As demonstrated inFigure 6.1, the ambient levels of TSP and sulphurdioxide in Tokyo are well within the guidelinessuggested by WHO, while the NO2 level in 1995slightly exceeded the Guideline in Tokyo and Osaka,a situation that is commonly attributed to the citieswith growing levels of private transport. Newlyindustrialized countries of the region such as, theRepublic of Korea, Singapore, and Malaysia are at astage in their development where they are alsobeginning to reduce the ambient levels of the majorair pollutants.
E. Economic & Health ImplicationsAir pollution has economic impacts due to
increased mortality and illness, the degradation tocrops and property and due to tourists avoiding orshortening visits to cities that are heavily polluted.Estimating a monetary value for air pollution impactsis difficult, as it involves estimating non-market costsand values (e.g., health). However, a number ofestimates have been produced, for example, damagescaused by particulates and lead emissions in Jakartahave been estimated to be as high as US$ 2.1 billion(ADB 1999). These costs are primarily as a result ofpremature mortality and the impact of lead emissionson child intelligence, as detailed in Table 6.2.
In regard to health, air pollution is now theprincipal cause of chronic health problems in manyAsian cities. Table 6.3 lists the common air pollutants,and the associated health concerns (ADB 1999). It isestimated that, globally, 200 000 to 570 000 deathseach year are due to outdoor air pollution (WHO1997 and WRI 1998). According to an estimate bythe World Bank (1992), about two to five per cent ofall deaths in urban areas in the developing world aredue to high exposures to particulates. For example, Source: Toufiq Siddiqi 1998
Figure 6.1 Ambient Levels of Air Pollutants inSelected Large Asian Cities
Bangkok
Beijing
Calcutta
Delhi
Jakarta
Kuala Lumpur
Manila
Mumbai
Seoul
Shanghai
Tehran
Tokyo
0 100 200 300 400 500
WHO guideline: 90
Microgram per cu m (Annual Mean)Total Suspended Particulates
Source: Toufiq Siddiqi 1998
Sulphur Dioxide
Bangkok
Beijing
Calcutta
Delhi
Manila
Mumbai
Pusan
Seoul
Shanghai
Tehran
Tokyo
Yokohama
0 50 100 150 200 250
Microgram per cu m (Annual Mean)
WHO guideline: 50
Source: Toufiq Siddiqi 1998
Nitrogen Dioxide
Bangkok
Beijing
Calcutta
Delhi
Mumbai
Osaka
Pusan
Seoul
Shanghai
Tokyo
Yokohama
0 50 100 150
Microgram per cu m (Annual Mean)
WHO guideline: 50
if particulate levels in Jakarta were reduced to theWHO standards, an estimated 1 400 deaths, 49 000emergency room visits and 600 000 asthma attackscould be avoided each year (Ostro 1994).
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REGIONAL ISSUES –TRANS-BOUNDARY AIR POLLUTION
A. Haze and SmogIncidents of haze (severe smoke pollution) have
occurred from time to time in many parts of theregion. However uncontrolled forest fires, mainly inIndonesia, resulted in a particularly lengthy andsevere episode affecting several countries in SoutheastAsia from late July to early October 1997 (seeChapters 2 and 17). Substantial adverse health effectsassociated with the high levels of particulatesoccurred (WHO 1998). During the peak period ofthe haze in September 1997, air pollution levelsconsiderably exceeded the WHO recommendedlevels. An estimated 20 million people in Indonesiasuffered from respiratory problems, with levels oftotal suspended particulates (TSP) exceeding thenational standard by 3-15 times. Visits to the KualaLumpur General Hospital due to respiratoryproblems increased from 250 to 800 persons a day.The economic costs associated with the haze havebeen estimated at US$ 6 billion for all the countries
affected (WWF 1998). These include direct costs, suchas losses to agriculture, as well as indirect costs suchas medical expenses and a decline in tourism.
Information on the extent and the impacts ofthe haze were presented at a Workshop organizedby the WHO’s Regional Office for the Western Pacificin June 1998. For example, in Brunei Darussalam,measurements taken during the dry weather periodFebruary-April 1998 showed that the PollutionStandard Index (PSI) readings exceeded 100, and were
Table 6.2 Estimated Health Benefits of ReducingAir Pollution in Jakarta
Health Unit Value Total in IndonesiaHealth Effect Benefits US$ US$ total adj.
Table 6.3 Health Effects Associated with CommonAir Pollutants
Pollutant Population Health Impact Exacerbatingat risk Factors
Particulate Entire Increase in Especially PM101
emissions population, illness, cancer of if there are highespecially and death from concentrations ofmotorists and respiratory diesel emissions.pedestrians. illness and
decrease inlung function.
Lead Children, Acts as an Chronic exposure motorists, and acute toxin, to lead alsopedestrians. damaging the increases death
kidneys, nervous rates fromsystem, and stroke andbrain. heart disease.
Carbon Pedestrians, Shortness of Most significantmonoxide roadside breath, increased in pregnant
vendors, and blood pressure, women, youngvehicle drivers. headaches, and children, and
difficulty in those sufferingconcentration. from heart and
respiratorydiseases.
Nitrogen Urban Respiratory Most significantdioxide commuters and infection, effects in children
dwellers. increased airway and asthmatics.resistance, anddecreased lungfunction.
Ozone Urban commuters Irritation of the Long-term and dwellers. eyes and exposure may
respiratory tract cause irreversibleand reduced lung deterioration infunction. lung structure.
High BOD2 Users of untreated Gastro-intestinal Greatest impactpublic water illness. throughsupplies. dehydration and
diarrhoea in youngchildren.
Heavy metals Ingested through Poisoning, Populations onwater supply or increased child watercourses closefrom exposed morbidity, to gold mining atfoods. and mortality. risk to mercury
poisoning.
Source: ADB 1999
Note: 1 Particulate matters smaller than 10 microns in size2 Biological Oxygen Demand
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sometimes as high as 250. This caused the disruptionof daily activities, closure of schools, and changes ingovernment working hours. The PSI in Singaporeexceeded 100 for 12 days, reaching a maximum of138. About 94 per cent of the haze particleswere found to be PM10 with a diameter less than2.5 microns. Hospital visits for all haze-relatedillnesses increased by about 30 per cent. In theSouthern provinces of Thailand, the PM10concentrations in the city of Hat Yai also increasedsignificantly. In Papua New Guinea, about 50 percent of commercial flights were cancelled due to poorvisibility. In the city of Port Moresby, visibility duringthe peak haze period was limited to about onekilometre, and in the southern islands of thePhilippines, four to five kilometres.
Besides haze, photochemical smog is alsobecoming a problem in the region. Air pollutiongenerated in some countries is being carried by windsto neighbouring countries. Under certain weatherconditions (primary sunlight) a photochemical smogis formed, when nitrogen oxides from fuelcombustion react with volatile organic compounds(VOC) such as unburned petrol. Ground-level ozone(O3) is the major component of the smog, and it cancause several respiratory diseases. Many cities inAsia are believed to have high levels of ground levelozone, but data are still not generally available.
B. Acid RainAcid rain has become a concern in several parts
of Asia during the last decade, particularly inNortheast Asia. In People’s Republic of China, forexample, about half of all the cities monitored hadaverage annual precipitation with pH values less than5.6, the threshold for acid rain (UNEP 1999). Centraland south western China were the areas mostaffected, with average pH less than 5.0, and acid rainfrequency higher than 70 per cent. Of the cities southof the Yangtze River, Changsha, Zunyi, Hangzhou,and Yibib had pH values lower than 4.5.
The total emissions of SO2 in Northeast Asiawere estimated at 14.7 Tg (teragrams, or millionmetric tonnes). About 81 per cent of these originatedin Northeast China, 12 per cent in the Republic ofKorea, 5 per cent in Japan, and 2 per cent in theDemocratic People’s Republic of Korea (Streets et al1999). The emissions are concentrated in the majorurban and industrial centres such as Shanghai,Beijing, Tianjin and Pusan. With the anticipatedcontinued economic growth for this subregion,continued reliance on fossil fuels, and no additionalenvironmental controls, emissions of SO2 are expectedto increase to 41 Tg in 2020. However, Japan and theRepublic of Korea currently enforce treatment of fluegas from large coal burning facilities for SO2 removal,
and consequently emissions in both countries havestabilized.
An important step in addressing the problemis the identification of the regions that might besubject to large depositions of acid rain. Highdeposition areas are being studied by an internationalgroup, supported by the World Bank and the ADB,using a Regional Air Pollution Information andSimulation (RAINS-Asia) model developed at theInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis(IIASA). The output from one of the simulations(IIASA 1995), assuming continued large increases incoal use, is shown in Figure 6.2. Japan, the KoreanPeninsula, Eastern China, Eastern India, CentralThailand, Northern Philippines, and Eastern Sumatraare amongst the more likely regions to be affected byacid rain.
Additionally, the contribution of nitrogenoxides (NOx) to acid rain is increasing rapidly in theregion and will increase even faster in the future dueto the growth of the transportation sector. Theincreased emissions will contribute to acid rain butwill also lead to a rise in ambient levels of ozone.For example, India has large emissions of SO2 andNOx, with estimated emissions in 1987 of 3.1 Tg ofSO2 and 2.6 Tg of NOx (Kato and Akimoto 1992; Wangand Soud 1998). Unless stringent emission controlsare introduced, SO2 emissions alone could increaseto more than 18.5 Tg by 2020 (Elvingson 1996).
Emissions of ammonia (NH3), associated withlivestock and the increasing use of fertilizers, are alsoof concern in Asia. It has been estimated (Zhao andWang 1994) that present emissions of NH3 in the
Figure 6.2 Excess Levels of Acid DepositionProjected by the RAIN-Asia Model
Source: IIASA 1995
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Asian region are about 25 Tg per year. Ammonia isa strong acidifying agent in soils, and exacerbatesthe effects of acid rain.
Traditional biomass fuels also contribute to theemissions of sulphur and nitrogen oxides. Anestimated 4.9 per cent of the total SO2 emissions and7.7 per cent of total NOx emissions in Asia are due tothe combustion of biomass (Streets and Waldhoff1998). In some countries, such as Bhutan, LaoPeople’s Democratic Republic, and Nepal, more thanhalf of the emissions are from the use of biomass.
GLOBAL ISSUES
A. Depletion of the Ozone LayerThe appearance of an “Ozone Hole” over the
Antarctic (later observed over the Arctic) during theearly 1980s was quickly traced back to the rapidincreases in the emissions of gases containing chlorineand bromine during preceding decades. These gasesprimarily originate from halocarbons arising fromhuman activities. Since stratospheric ozone absorbsmuch of the ultraviolet radiation reaching the surfaceof the earth, its depletion exposes people living inthe affected areas to higher radiation, resulting inhigher incidences of skin cancer and related illnesses.
The global response to this environmentalthreat is generally considered to be one of the greatsuccesses in international cooperation (Box 6.1). Therapid decline in the emissions of ozone depletingsubstances (ODS) on a global basis is shown inFigure 6.3. Most of the emissions of ODS originatedin the industrialized countries, however since 1995,emissions of CFCs from these countries have declinedsignificantly.
B. Climate Fluctuations
1. Long-term Cyclic VariationsThere have been changes in the earth’s climate
since the formation of the planet about 5 billion yearsago. It was only after a period of hundreds of millionsof years that these changes permitted the evolutionof life. Change has continued, with ice agesalternating with warmer eras, on a time scale of tensof thousands of years. Samples of ice cores taken inAntarctica show a good correlation between Antarctictemperature, as deduced from the isotopiccomposition of the ice, and levels of carbon dioxide(IPCC 1995). An increase in the concentration of thelatter from about 190 parts per million by volume(ppmv) coincided with an increase in the meansurface temperature of the earth of about 4 degreesCelsius. The concentrations of methane, anothergreenhouse gas, also show a similar correlation. The
1986 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 19950
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Success Story: CFC Production Has Fallen Sharply
Industrialized countries
Developing countries
CFC Production (’000 ODP tonnes)
Figure 6.3 Decline in the Global Production ofOzone Depleting CFCs
Source: GTZ 1997
Note: ODP tonnes is a measure by which ozone depleting substancesare weighted according to their ability to destroy ozone.
Source: IPCC 1995
Figure 6.4 Correlation between Levels of CarbonDioxide, Methane and SurfaceTemperature
changes in concentration and temperature are shownin Figure 6.4.
2. Emissions of Greenhouse Gases due to HumanActivitiesThe majority of scientists believe that emissions
of greenhouse gases from human activity are theprincipal reason for the warming of the earth in recentdecades. Nine of the ten hottest years on a global
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basis since measurements began have occurredduring the past decade. The gases, which contributemost to climate change, are carbon dioxide, methane,nitrous oxide, and halocarbons.
The Intergovernmental Panel in ClimateChange (IPCC) reports (1995) provided details aboutthe natural, as well as anthropogenic, sources ofgreenhouse gas emissions (Box 6.2). The burning offossil fuels and biomass is the largest single sourceof emissions for carbon dioxide, the gas contributingthe largest share to the greenhouse effect. Changesin land use, such as clearing of forests for agricultureor residential development is also a major source ofcarbon dioxide. The keeping of livestock, growingof paddy rice, urban garbage dumps, and theproduction of fossil fuels are major sources ofmethane (which although released in relatively smallquantities taking residence time into account, itsimpact as a greenhouse gas is 44 times that of CO2on a weight by weight basis). Chlorofluorocarbons,used as aerosols and for refrigeration, were also major
contributors to the greenhouse effect, until theemissions were drastically reduced after the signingand implementation of the Montreal Protocol.
C. Impacts of Climate Fluctuations
1. Changes in Precipitation and Availability of WaterGlobal climate change is frequently referred to
in the media as “Global Warming”. This tends tofocus attention on the anticipated increase in averagesurface temperature of the world, estimated to be ofthe order of 2-4 degrees celsius, if present trendscontinue. This is important as far as the causes ofthe change are concerned (for which there exists noconsensus), but more importantly in terms of impacts,changes in rainfall patterns and in the location andfrequency of extreme weather events, such as cyclones(Box 6.3).
Existing computer models (GC-MS) are not yetable to predict, for example, exactly how theprecipitation in each state or province might change.The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Box 6.1 The Montreal Protocol: A Successful Example of International Cooperation
It is seldom that an environmental threat is recognized and action taken quickly to deal with it. The depletion of the ozonelayer over the Antarctic “the ozone hole” was recognized and its link to the use of CFCs established during the 1970s. The ViennaConvention was followed by the Montreal Protocol in 1987, which committed the signatories to phasing out the production and useof CFCs and other ozone depleting substances (ODS). In most international agreements, the schedule for implementation isstretched out beyond the original date, however, in this case, as scientific measurements showed that the size of the ozone hole wasincreasing at a fast rate, the time table for the phase-out was actually accelerated through the signing and implementation of theLondon Amendment and the Copenhagen Amendment.
The global production of CFCs in 1998 was only about 7 per cent of the peak reached in 1988. The industrialized countrieshave almost completed their phase out of these chemicals, and the remaining production is only in the developing countries, whichwere given an additional grace period of 10 years, up to 1999, to start implementing the provisions of the Montreal Protocol and itsamendments. A Multilateral Fund was set up under the Protocol to assist the developing countries to help pay for new technologies,equipment conversion projects, and training of personnel. The Fund has contributed over US$ 600 million to about 1 800 separateprojects in more than 100 developing countries. These projects will result in the phasing out of an equivalent of more than80 000 metric tonnes of CFCs.
In the Asian and Pacific Region, People’s Republic of China and India are the largest producers and users of CFCs. China’sconsumption of ODS increased more than 12 per cent per year between 1986 and 1994. At the end of 1994, the country producedabout 60 000 tonnes of ODS and consumed 84 000 tonnes annually. People’s Republic of China has made a commitment to phase outconsumption of these substances completely by 2010. It has already banned the establishment of new CFC and Halon – relatedproduction facilities, and developed general and sector – specific phase out plans, with the assistance of the World Bank and theMultilateral Fund. It was expected to meet the 1999 target for freezing the consumption of CFCs.
India is the second largest producer and fourth largest consumer of CFCs in the world. Its production of 23.7 million tonnes(MT) during 1997 accounted for 16.4 per cent of the world total. During the same year, it consumed 6.7 MT, amounting to about5.3 per cent of the consumption worldwide. The Multilateral Fund for the Implementation of the Montreal Protocol has approved aWorld Bank project which will assist India in completely phasing out of CFC production by 2010, with production ceilings set foreach of the earlier years.
The successful implementation of Montreal Protocol shows that it is possible to overcome a serious environmental threat withinternational cooperation particularly through sharing of responsibilities and resources. In fact the establishment of a fund was amajor contributor to success of the Montreal Protocol.
Source: UNEP 1998; World Bank 1997; and WRI 1998
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Box 6.2 Anthropogenic Emission and Climate Change
The Rise of Greenhouse Gas Concentrations
• Atmospheric concentrations – the accumulation of emissions – of greenhouse gases have grown significantly since pre-industrialtimes as a result of human activities.
• Carbon dioxide concentrations – the most important greenhouse gas apart from water vapour – has increased more than 30 per centfrom 280 ppmv (parts per million by volume) in the pre-industrial era to 365 ppmv by the late 1990s. The current rate of increase isaround 1.5 ppmv per year. Unfortunately, a large proportion of the carbon dioxide put into the atmosphere remains there, warmingthe planet, for around 200 years.
• Methane – on a weight-per-weight basis some 20 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide has more thandoubled its concentration, from 700 to 1 720 parts per billion, by volume, (ppbv), primarily because of deforestation and the growthin rice and cattle production. Natural gas leaks are another source. Methane’s residence time in the atmosphere is relatively shortapproximately 12 years.
• Nitrous oxide, associated with modern agriculture and the heavy application of chemical fertilizers, has increased frompre-industrial levels of 275 ppbv to 310, with a current annual growth rate of 0.25 per cent. On a weight-per-weight basis it is morethan 200 times more powerful as a greenhouse gas compared with carbon dioxide. Its residence time in the atmosphere is around120 years.
• The Chlorofluorocarbons, CFC11 and CFC12, both with growth rates of 4 per cent per year during the past decade, have nowreached levels of 280 parts per trillion by volume (pptv) and 484 pptv respectively. They have a ‘greenhouse gas potential’ that ismany thousands of times greater than carbon dioxide on a weight-per-weight basis, and they remain in the atmosphere from severalthousand years.
• Taking the residence time in the atmosphere of the different gases and their specific effectiveness as greenhouse gases into account,carbon dioxide’s contribution is some 55 per cent of the whole, compared with 17 per cent for the two CFCs and 15 per cent formethane. Other CFCs and nitrous oxide account for 8 and 5 per cent respectively of the changes in radiative forcing.
Impacts of anthropogenic emissions on climate change:
• Increases in greenhouse gas concentrations since pre-industrial times (i.e., since about 1750) have led to a positive radiative forcingof climate, tending to warm the surface of the Earth and produce other changes of climate.
• The atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide (N2O), among others, havegrown significantly: by about 30, 145, and 15 per cent, respectively (values for 1992). These trends can be attributed largely tohuman activities, mostly fossil fuel use, land-use change, and agriculture.
• Many Greenhouse gases remain in the atmosphere for a long time (for carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide, many decades tocenturies). As a result of this, if carbon dioxide emissions were maintained at near current (1994) levels, they would lead to a nearlyconstant rate of increase in atmospheric concentrations for at least two centuries, reaching about 500 ppmv (approximately twice thepre-industrial concentration of 280 ppmv) by the end of the 21st century.
• Tropospheric aerosols resulting from combustion of fossil fuels, biomass burning, and other sources have led to a negative radiativeforcing, which, while focused in particular regions and subcontinent areas, can have continental to hemispheric effects on climatepatterns. In contrast to the long-lived greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols are very short-lived in the atmosphere; hence, theirradiative forcing adjusts rapidly to increases or decreases in emissions.
• The scientific ability from the observed climate record to quantify the human influence on global climate is currently limitedbecause the expected signal is still emerging from the noise of natural variability, and because there are uncertain ties in key factors.These include the magnitude and patterns of long-term natural variability and the time-evolving pattern of forcing by, and responseto, changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, and land-surface changes. Nevertheless, the balance of evidencesuggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate. The IPCC has developed a range of scenarios, IS92a-f, forfuture greenhouse gas and aerosol recursor emissions.
• The IPCC has developed a range of scenarios, IS92a-f, for future greenhouse gas and aerosol precursor emissions based on assumptionsconcerning population and economic growth, land use, technological changes, energy availability, and fuel mix during the period1990 to 2100. Through understanding of the global carbon cycle and of atmospheric chemistry, these emissions can be used toproject atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols and the perturbation of natural radiative forcing. Climatemodels can then be used to develop projections of future climate.
• Estimates of the rise in global average surface air temperature by 2100 relative to 1990 for the IS92 scenarios range from 1 to 3.5’C.In all cases the average rate of warming would probably be greater than any seen in the last 10 000 years. Regional temperaturechanges could differ substantially from the global mean and the actual annual to decadal changes would include considerablenatural variability. A general warming is expected to lead to an increase in the occurrence of extremely hot days and a decrease inthe occurrence of extremely cold days.
• Average sea level is expected to rise as a result of thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of glaciers and ice-sheets. Estimatesof the sea level rise by 2100 relative to 1990 for the IS92 scenario range from 15 to 95 cm.
• Warmer temperatures will lead to a more vigorous hydrological cycle; this translates into prospects for more severe droughts and/or floods in some places and less severe droughts and/or floods in other places. Several models indicate an increase in precipitationintensity, suggesting a possibility for more extreme rainfall events.
Source: IPCC 1995
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Box 6.3 El Nino and Climate Change: Extreme Natural Events
While climate change is regarded as a gradual phenomenon, it may largely manifest itself in the changing frequency of extrememeteorological events – unexpected droughts and floods, record heatwaves and snowstorms – that will trigger human disasters.One model for these likely events is provided by the record El Nino caused round the world during 1997 and 1998. The nameEl Nino – Spanish for the Christ Child – comes from Peruvian fishermen, who named it generations ago for the timing of its usualpeak around Christmas. Historical records show the phenomenon has been occurring every two to ten years for at least the last fivecenturies. Since the turn of this century 23 El Ninos have affected the earth.
El Nino is a fluctuation in the distribution of sea-surface temperatures and of atmospheric pressure across the tropical PacificOcean, leading to worldwide impacts on regional weather patterns. No one knows exactly why it takes place, but recent computerclimate modelling suggests the frequency and strength of both El Nino and its sister effect La Nina are increased by global warming– 1998 was by far the warmest year since world wide records began 150 years ago. Despite doubts over the precise relationships ofclimatic cause-and-effect, the mechanisms are well documented. In normal conditions, trade winds blowing west along the equatorpush warmer surface waters towards Southeast Asia, where they accumulate, evaporate and fall as heavy tropical rains. Meanwhile,off the Pacific coast of Latin America, cooler nutrient-rich waters well up from the ocean depths, causing dryer conditions along theshores of Peru and Chile, and making their fishing grounds among the most fertile in the world. During El Nino, trade windsweaken or reverse, and the warm surface waters of the western equatorial Pacific shift east. This generates unseasonable rain andstorms over the Pacific coast of the Americas, while leaving drought to afflict Southeast Asia and the western Pacific.
For the 12 El Nino months from the summer of 1997 to the summer of 1998, Asia and the Pacific experienced some of the mostintense and widespread fires ever recorded. Indonesia’s rain forests got no rain and the months of dry weather turned the forestsinto the world’s largest pile of firewood. Similarly, the South Pacific sweltered under cloudless skies. As west-blowing trade windsweakened and atmospheric pressure decreased over the central Pacific, warm seas and rain-clouds moved east, radically reducingprecipitation levels in the south-west Pacific. Droughts blighted many countries in the region including Australia, Indonesia, NewZealand, Papua New Guinea, Fiji and the Solomon Islands, hitting hard states that rely on arable crops for domestic consumptionand export revenue.
El Nino is a periodic natural event, but it has become more intense and frequent in the past 20 years and there is some evidenceto suggest that this may be a consequence of global warming, if this is the case, then El Ninos could become semi-permanent featuresof the world’s weather system. Even if not, recent events demonstrate the instability of the world’s weather systems and its capacityto switch modes, unleashing extreme weather on unsuspecting communities, and raise the need for further investigation on interannual climate variability.
Source: Red Cross 1999
Research Organization of Australia (CSIRO 1995),among others is developing computer models toassess regional changes in temperature and rainfall.However, it is clear that a “Permanent” reduction inthe rainfall (or snowfall) could have enormousimplications for the availability of water, especiallyin densely populated locations.
2. Impact on AgricultureA change in the average temperature and
precipitation is likely to have a significant affect oncrop yields either increasing or decreasing themdepending on crop types. In some areas, yields mightincrease, whilst in others they would declinedepending on. Countries in the region are beginningto assess the likely implications of such changes ontheir food production. Initial simulations for studiessponsored by ADB (1994) and the World Bank (Dinaret al 1997) suggest that an increase in meantemperature might for example, reduce rice yields inBangladesh, India, Philippines, and the Republic ofKorea. The simulations also showed that the yield
of wheat in India might increase due to higherincreased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, but couldalso reduce due to higher temperatures.
3. Sea-Level FluctuationAlthough recently revised downward, the
expected rise in sea levels due to climate change arestill anticipated to range from 0.3 to 0.5 metres bythe year 2100 (IPCC 1995) and could present a bigchallenge to most countries of the region. Concernshave been expressed by the leaders of many smallisland nations such as, the Maldives, Tuvalu, Kiribatiand Tonga, where most land is only a few metersabove sea level. Changes in the sea temperature arealso likely to have serious impacts particularly oncoral reefs and migratory species of marine life(Box 6.4)
Other countries such as People’s Repblic ofChina, India, Indonesia and Bangladesh havesubstantial parts of their population living close toriver deltas, including many of the Megacities of theregion, such as Calcutta and Shanghai. A rise in sea
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level could thus affect at least a hundred millioninhabitants and cause large economic losses (seeBox 6.5).
4. Frequency of StormsChanges in temperature are likely to be
accompanied by changes in the frequency andintensity of storms. Although it may be too early topredict how countries may be affected, there are someindications that a few countries in the region arealready being affected by a larger number ofdestructive cyclones and storms.
5. Impact on HealthThe health of humans and other species is
affected by a number of environmental factors,including the quality of the air and water, temperatureranges, rainfall, and the presence of organisms andvectors that transmit diseases. Since the preciseimpact of global climate change on these cannot yetbe predicted, it is only possible to provide a generalindication of the types of health implications thatcan be expected. For example, Table 6.4 depicts thelikelihood of alterations to distribution of vector-borne diseases. One particular concern to the Asianand Pacific Region is the likely change in thedistribution of malaria–carrying mosquitoes as aresult of warmer surface temperatures, possiblyplacing several hundred million people at risk everyyear (WRI 1998).
Box 6.4 Global Warming: Threat to Coral Reefs
According to a recent report, “Climate Change, Coral Bleaching and the Future of the World’s Coral Reefs,” global warming of1 to 2 degree celsius over 100 years would cause devastating bleaching events to occur on large tracts of Australia’s WorldHeritage-listed Great Barrier Reef. The reef could die from coral bleaching within 30 years.
Coral reefs are highly sensitive to the first signs of danger. In the late 1980’s large areas of coral reefs were damaged or killedby a phenomenon called coral bleaching. The process takes place by the disturbance of plant-like microbes called zooxanthellae,which live in association with coral cells. The zooxanthellae use the waste phosphates, nitrates, and carbon dioxide from coral cellsto photosynthesize oxygen and sugars that, in turn, are metabolized by the coral cells. When the water temperature exceeds thenormal maximum by more than two degrees Celsius, the photosynthetic process of the zooxanthellae breaks down and the coralsbegin to eject them. Because the plant cells have pigments, and the corals don’t, the coral colonies turn white, as if they werebleached. The corals die if the hot water continues.
In 1998 and 1999, anomalies greater than one degree above the maximum monthly climatological Sea Surface Temperature(SST) were recorded. A network of coral reef researchers and observers examined coral reefs in the hotspots posted on the Internet.The 1998 satellite images showed very hot ocean water in the Indian Ocean and South-West Pacific. This water, sometimes 5 degreesabove the normal temperature tolerance of reef building corals, remained over known coral reef habitats for several weeks. Thebleaching events that coincided with the distribution of hot water caused the most extensive bleaching of coral reefs ever recorded,affecting formerly lush and healthy coral reefs in Australia, Viet Nam, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines and Indonesia.Predictions were made for coral bleaching based on the location and duration of hotspots, providing convincing proof that elevatedsea temperatures were the primary cause of the bleaching.
In 1998, the Great Barrier Reef, which stretches 2 000 km down the coast of North Queensland, experienced its most seriousepisode of bleaching on record, with 88 per cent of reefs close to shore affected. According to the principal research scientist at theAustralian Institute of Marine Science, while bleaching does not always kill coral, bleaching in 1998 resulted in a high coral mortalityrate that left some parts of the reef dead. The same scientist supporting the report said that its prediction of an increased frequencyof coral bleaching due to global warming appears very credible and of great concern. This has enormous implications for the healthand wealth of tropical and sub-tropical marine dependent societies of Asia and the Pacific. The economic impact of severe coralbleaching would be enormous, especially affecting fisheries and tourism, which form the backbone of the economy in manydeveloping countries of the region.
Source: 1. Kyodo News Service 19992. Strong A.E., T.J. Goreau and R.L. Hayes 19993. Guch 1999
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Box 6.5 Illustrating the Impacts of Sea-Level Rise: Bangladesh
A major concern related to a change in the global climate is the potential of rising sea levels. Bangladesh is one of the mostdensely populated countries of the world, with a large population subject to frequent flooding and storms. A rise of about 0.45 metrein sea level could inundate about 11 per cent of the total land area of the country, displacing about 5 per cent of the presentpopulation, i.e. about 7 million people. If the rise in sea level reaches 1 metre, approximately 21 per cent of the land could beinundated, affecting about 20 million people.
In addition to the physical hardship on the population due to the loss of land, agricultural output would also suffer considerably.The loss in rice production alone is estimated to be in the range of 0.8-2.9 million tonnes per year by 2030, and would exceed2.6 million tonnes per year by 2070.
Loss Estimates of Rice Output Due to Sea Level Rise (metric tonnes)
Year SLR 45 cm SLR 1 m
1995 209 (0.01) 740 (0.01)
2000 950 (0.02) 2 711 (0.04)
2010 11 458 (0.23) 35 192 (0.42)
2020 125 268 (2.23) 412 042 (3.98)
2030 827 212 (13.19) 2 875 351 (23.56)
2040 1 749 582 (25.25) 6 294 330 (45.08)
2050 2 121 854 (27.70) 7 708 359 (49.48)
2060 2 367 394 (27.97) 8 600 366 (49.95)
2070 2 618 802 (28.00) 9 513 691 (50.00)
Source: ADB 1994bNote: Figures in parentheses show losses as percentages of total potential output
in the coastal zone likely to be inundated based on Consultants’ estimates.
Forestry, too, is likely to be severely affected. The world famous Sundarbans, one of the largest single-tract mangroves in theworld, might be completely inundated if the sea level were to rise by one metre. The rich biodiversity in that area would be lost, aswell as a continuing supply of biomass fuel for the area. The economic losses associated with such a sea level rise would also besignificant, amounting to several billion dollars annually.
Table 6.4 The World’s Major Vector-borne Diseases Ranked by Population Currently at Risk
Causative Vectors Population Population infected Likelihood ofDisease agents at risk (millions) (millions) altered distribution
with climate change
Detigue fever Viruses Mosquitoes 2 500 50 per year ++
Malaria Protozoa Mosquitoes 2 400 300-500 per year +++
Trypanosomiasis Protozoa Tsetse flies 55 0.25-0.3 per year +(sleeping sickness)
Source: WHO 1996
Abbreviations: + likely ++ very likely +++ highly likely
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REGIONAL CONTRIBUTION TOCLIMATE FLUCTUATION
A. Greenhouse Gases
1. Rising Share of Carbon Dioxide Emissions fromEnergy UseWhile Europe and North America had been
the largest emitters of carbon dioxide until the middleof the 1990s, Asia has now assumed this role. Therelative contributions of the different world continentsto carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels in 1996(Siddiqi 1999) are shown in Figure 6.5.
While in aggregate terms, the emissions ofcarbon dioxide from People’s Republic of China andIndia are amongst the largest in the world, howeverin terms of per capita emissions, the USA has thehighest contribution, as shown in Figure 6.6. Thishas implications for designing a universally accepted
Protocol for reducing emissions of greenhouse gases.The developing countries feel that they cannot acceptlimits on their emissions in the near future in viewof the close link between economic growth, energyuse, and carbon dioxide emissions. Improving theefficiency of energy use, and the use of renewable orother low or no carbon energy sources, are ways ofovercoming this dilemma.
A substantial number of studies on greenhousegas emissions have been undertaken in Asiancountries during recent years, many of them withthe support of the Global Environment Facility (GEF),the United Nations Development Programme(UNDP), the ADB, and the World Bank. A majorregional project, ALGAS, funded by GEF throughUNDP, and implemented by ADB, provided acomprehensive picture of the emissions of variousgreenhouse gases and the options for reducing therates of growth of emissions in the participatingcountries. The results for emissions of carbon dioxidefrom energy use for the years 1980, 1990 and 1995are shown in Table 6.5.
In many of the Asian countries, traditional fuelssuch as firewood, and animal and agricultural wastesprovide a substantial share of the total energy, asshown in Figure 6.7. The combustion of these fuelsalso results in sizeable amounts of carbon dioxide, aswell as other air pollutants. In conducting emissionstudies, many countries assume that these emissionsare balanced by the absorption of an approximatelyequal amount by the new growth in forests and
Asia34.9%
Oceania1.5%
Africa3.6%
Central andSouth America3.6%
North America28.1%
Europe28.3%
Figure 6.5 Regional Shares of Carbon DioxideEmissions from the Use of Fossil Fuels
Figure 6.6 Total and Per Capita Emissions ofCarbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuels in theLargest Emitting Countries, 1996
Table 6.5 Emissions of Carbon Dioxide from EnergyUse in 11 Asian Countries (in MillionTonnes of Carbon Dioxide)
Emissions Emissions Emissions
Country(1980) (1990) (1995)
(World Bank (ALGAS (World Bank1998) study 1998) 1998)
Bangladesh 7.6 21.2 20.9
PR China 1 476.8 2 325.3 3 192.5
India 347.3 565.2 908.7
Indonesia 94.6 156.9 296.1
Mongolia 6.8 13.8 8.5
Myanmar 4.8 6.1 7.0
Pakistan 31.6 69.5 85.4
Philippines 36.5 43.5 61.2
Rep. of Korea 125.2 248.1 373.6
Thailand 40.1 79.7 175.0
Viet Nam 16.8 27.5 31.7
Source: ADB 1998 and World Bank 1998
Note: The methodologies adopted by the ALGAS study and the CDIACwork cited by the World Bank are slightly different, and cautionshould be exercized when comparing the data for the different years
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transmission of natural gas are also large contributors.Aggregate emissions are subject to somewhat largeruncertainties than emissions from fossil fuelcombustion, since there is a considerable differencein the emissions from paddy rice fields in differentareas, and in emissions from different animal species.However, the estimated emissions of methane fromthe countries participating in the ALGAS study aregiven in Table 6.7 which also provides the data onnitrous oxide emissions of which agriculture and fuelcombustion are the principal sources.
REGIONAL POLICIES AND RESPONSES
A number of policy measures and technologiesare available to improve the quality of theatmospheric environment. Many of these approachesare applicable to reducing local air pollution, as wellas the emissions of particulates and gases thatcontribute to regional and global atmosphericpollution. Frequently, a combination of severalapproaches is used to achieve policy goals. Thissection highlights some of the key steps taken incombating climatic pollution in the region.
A. Local Air Pollution
1. Ambient Air Quality StandardsA crucial step in improving air quality is the
establishment of standards that define whatconstitutes acceptable levels of particular pollutantsin the ambient air. The World Health Organization(WHO) has suggested ranges of acceptable ambientair quality standards (WHO/UNEP 1992), with themiddle point of the range normally used to comparethe current status of air quality in different locations.
Source: Siddiqi 1998
Figure 6.7 Share of Energy Supplied by TraditionalFuels in Selected Asian Countries
Banglad
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PR Chin
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Indones
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Myan
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Pakist
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Philippin
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1980 1995
Table 6.6 Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Land UseChanges in the ALGAS ParticipatingCountries
Emissions (1990)Country (ALGAS study 1999)
(in million tonnes of Carbon Dioxide)
Bangladesh 19.8
PR China -281.2
India 1.5
Indonesia -334.9
Mongolia 5.5
Myanmar 6.7
Pakistan 9.8
Philippines 82.1
Rep. of Korea 16.2
Thailand 78.1
Viet Nam 31.2
Source: ADB 1999
Note: Negative numbers imply that more carbon dioxide is beingabsorbed than emitted
agricultural crops each year. Land use changes are amajor source of carbon dioxide emissions and in somecountries, the forests may be a net sink for carbondioxide, i.e. the removal of carbon from theatmosphere might be larger than the emissions.According to the ALGAS study, two of the11 countries with completed reports indicated thatland use changes represented a net sink for carbon.These data are shown in Table 6.6.
2. Emissions of Methane & Nitrous OxideAgriculture and livestock are the largest sources
of anthropogenic methane in most countries, althoughcoalmines, the production of oil and gas, and
Table 6.7 Emissions of Methane and Nitrous Oxidein ALGAS Participating Countries
In view of their widespread use, the standardsrecommended by WHO are reproduced in Table 6.8.
A large number of Asian countries havedeveloped their own ambient air quality standardsfor the principal pollutants, as well as emissionstandards for power plants, selected industries, andvehicles. Reflecting their sizes and the diversesituations, People’s Republic of China and India havetaken the approach of setting different air qualitystandards (see Table 6.9) for different types oflocations, with more stringent standards forconservation and tourist areas, somewhat less strictfor residential urban and rural areas, and morepermissive standards for industrial areas or areas withheavy traffic.
2. Emission StandardsEmission standards place restrictions on the
amount of emission industrial facilities such as powerplants and industrial boilers are allowed to dischargeinto the atmosphere, and may also be enforced for
vehicles. Although ambient and emission standardshave been in place for a number of years, air qualitycontinues to deteriorate as enforcement is lacking inmany countries. Nevertheless, some countries aremaking headway, for example, Malaysia introducedEnvironmental Quality (Control of Emission fromPetrol Engines) Regulations on 1st November 1996.These new regulations focused on a preventiveapproach toward emissions control by control ofvehicular emissions in the manufacturing or assemblystage. Beginning 1st January 1997, new models ofmotor vehicles were required to comply with certainemission standards before they could be sold(Malaysia Environmental Quality Report 1996).
3. Fuel Quality and Use RegulationsA number of countries in the Asian and Pacific
Region have set limitations on the amount of specificpollutants allowed in fuels. For example, the sulphurcontent of coal or oil, or the benzene, lead, or volatilitylevels of fuel may be limited. Many of the
Table 6.8 Ambient Air Quality Guidelines Recommended by the World Health Organization
Parameter 10 minutes 15 minutes 30 minutes 1 hour 8 hours 24 hours 1 year Year ofg/m3 standard
SO2 500 125a 50a 1987
SO2 100-150 40-60 1979
BSb 125a 50a 1987
BSb 100-150 40-60 1979
TSP 120a 1987
TSP 150-230 60-90 1979
PM10 70a 1987
Lead 0.5-1 1987, 1977b
CO 100 60 30 10 1987
NO2 400 150 1987
NO2 190-320c 1977b
O3 150-200 100-120 1987
O3 100-200 1978
Source: WHO/UNEP 1992Notes: a) Guideline values for combined exposure to sulphur dioxide and suspended particulate matter (they may not apply to situations where
only one of the components is present).b) Application of the black smoke value is recommended only in areas where coal smoke from domestic fires is the dominant component of
the particulates. It does not necessarily apply where diesel smoke is an important contributor.c) Not to be exceeded more than once per month.
Suspended particulate matter measurement methodsBS = Black smoke; a concentration of a standard smoke with an equivalent reflectance reduction to that of the atmospheric particles as
collected on a filter paper.TSP = Total suspended particulate matter; the mass of collected particulate matter by gravimetric analysis divided by total volume
sampled.PM10 = Particulate matter less than 10 in aerodynamic diameter, the mass of particulate matter collected by a sampler having an inlet
with 50 per cent penetration at 10 aerodynamic diameter determined gravimetrically divided by the total volume sampled.TP = Thoracic particles (as PM10).IP = Inhatable particles (as PM10).
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industrialized countries of the region, includingAustralia, Japan, Republic of Korea , New Zealand,and Singapore, have phased out lead content invehicle fuels. Other countries have set standards atthe lowest possible level at which older vehicles canstill operate.
4. Licensing and ZoningMost industrial facilities require licenses to
operate, and their construction frequently requiresan environmental impact assessment (EIA) todetermine whether and where facilities can be built,and what steps they need to take before being allowedto operate. However, it is important to take intoconsideration not only the particular facility beinglicensed, but the cumulative impact of associatedor nearly industrial facilities. The large numbers ofcoal-fired power plants in the Mae Moh area ofThailand, around Shanghai, and in Singrauli (India)for example, have resulted in high concentrations ofair pollutants over vast areas of those countries. Inresponse, zoning is used by many countries in Asiaand the Pacific to designate locations for pollutingindustries. These areas are usually designated atsome distance from residential areas, but in manydeveloping countries workers and their familiesfrequently live in close proximity.
even the best regulations are unlikely to improve airquality. Several legal instruments are available forenforcement, such as the revocation of licenses tooperate facilities and prosecution of polluters. In
Asia and the Pacific, Singapore has been particularlystrict in the enforcement of environmental regulations.New Delhi is amongst the cities that have begun totake action against highly polluting vehicles, andPeople’s Republic of China has started levying finesto industry for non-compliance.
6. Economic InstrumentsDuring the last few years, the role of the private
sector in the economic development of the regionhas increased considerably (see Chapter 13). Thisprovides opportunities for supplementing traditionalregulatory instruments with economic instrumentssuch as tax deduction on unleaded gasoline(Thailand) and providing subsidies for the purchaseof electricity from wind turbines and otherenvironment friend technologies.
B. Transboundary Air Pollution
1. Haze and SmogThe severe haze from forest fires during 1997
led the ASEAN Ministers of Environment to endorse(ASEAN 1998) the Regional Haze Action Plan(RHAP). The Plan sets out cooperative measuresneeded among ASEAN countries for addressing theproblem, aiming at three priority areas:
� prevention of forest fires through bettermanagement policies and enforcement;
Source: WHO and UNEP 1992; CPCB 1994; World Bank 1997; TERI 1998
Note: * the averaging time for India’s CO standard is 8 hours.
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Under the RHAP, lead countries have beenappointed to act as focal points for theimplementation of the Plan; Indonesia is taking thelead in mitigation, Malaysia in prevention, andSingapore in monitoring. The ADB is providingfinancial and technical assistance for theimplementation of RHAP (see Chapter 13). Thecountries that were affected by the haze episodeduring 1997 and early 1998 have already formulateda number of policy responses with a key focus onhealth, and have also initiated implementation ofseveral actions. For example, Brunei Darussalam hasdeveloped a National Action Plan, which includeshealth guidelines; installation of one fully equippedair monitoring station, and eight PM10 stations; morestringent laws on open burning; and provision ofpublic education through a Haze Information Centre.A National Committee on Haze was also set up, andis co-operating with other neighbouring countriesthrough regional coordinating mechanisms.
In Indonesia, provincial health officials monitorhealth quality, strengthen the surveillance ofhaze-related diseases, distribute masks to high riskgroups, develop guidelines for health personnel torespond to haze related emergencies, and haveestablished an early warning system for future hazedisasters. Long-term effects of haze are also beingassessed.
Haze Task Forces/Committees have also beenestablished in countries such as the Philippines,Singapore and Malaysia. The Task Forces areresponsible for monitoring the movement of haze,determining the related health hazards and servingas official sources of information. In Singapore aHaze Action Plan has been formulated and isactivated when the 24-hour PSI level exceeds 50, andis stepped up when the PSI level reaches 200.
Due to the relatively minor impact of the hazeepisode on Papua New Guinea, the mitigationmeasures undertaken by the government havefocused on education and information disseminationactivities designed to minimize slash and burnpractices amongst subsistence farmers.
Responding to the public demand for local airquality data, the initial emphasis in Thailand has beenon monitoring air quality rather than on preventionand mitigation. The Ministry of Health have also setup a coordinating centre for public support, and haveproduced a set of guidelines for public supportduring haze episodes, covering such aspects as airquality monitoring, health risk communication andpublic advice on protection measures. Subsequentactivities have included the generation of air qualitymonitoring and meteorology data for a haze warningsystem.
2. Acid RainIn view of the large use of coal in the Asian
and Pacific Region, and rising environmentalconcerns worldwide, there has been a great deal ofinterest in the use of “Clean Coal Technologies”.Prominent among these are various approaches toFluidized-Bed Combustion, which not only reducethe emissions of sulphur oxides, but permit poorergrades of coal to be used as fuel. Australia andPeople’s Republic of China are amongst the world’sleaders in the development of this technology.Another promising area is that of gasifying coal andthen using the gas as a fuel. Cost considerationshave however been an obstacle in the use of most ofthese technologies in the region to date.
The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)has established several Working Groups dealing withRegional Energy Cooperation, including one that isfocusing on “Clean Fossil Energy”. The reports ofthese working groups (e.g. APEC 1997) are a usefulsource of information for the countries of the region.
As mentioned earlier, the emissions of SO2 inAsia could reach 41 Tg per year by 2020, if noadditional measures are taken. The use of basiccontrol technologies (BCT) could reduce theseemissions to about 26 Tg, and using advanced controltechnologies (ACT) to 21 Tg (Streets et al 1999).Moreover, using the best available technology (BAT),which implies the installation of state of the art FlueGas Desulphurization (FGD) systems, could reduceSO2 emissions in 2020 to 4.7 Tg, a reduction of 69 percent from current levels. The annual costs associatedwith the emission reductions under these scenariosare estimated at US$12 billion for the BCT scenario,US$ 14 billion for the ACT scenario, and US$36 billionfor the BAT scenario.
People’s Republic of China has adopted anumber of measures to reduce acid rain such as theuse of clean coal, desulphurization technologies, andthe imposition of a levy on sulphur dioxide emissions(UNEP 1999). In addition, People’s Republic of Chinahas considerably improved the efficiency of energyuse and switched to less polluting energy sources.
Efforts are also increasing to promotesubregional cooperation on transboundary pollutionin Northeast Asia through the Northeast AsiaSubregional Programme of EnvironmentalCooperation (NEASPEC) (see Chapter 19). In SouthAsia, the Republic of Maldives (amongst others) hasrecently ratified the “Malé Declaration on Control andPrevention of Air Pollution and its Likely TransboundaryEffects for South Asia”. The aim of the Declaration isto achieve inter-governmental cooperation to addressthe increasing threat of transboundary air pollutionand consequential impacts due to concentrations of
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pollutant gases and acid deposition on human health,ecosystem function and corrosion of materials.Besides laying down the general principles ofinter-governmental cooperation for air pollutionabatement, the Declaration sets up an institutionalframework linking scientific research and policyformulation. The Declaration also calls for thecontinuation of this process in stages, with mutualconsultation, to draw up and implement national andregional action plans and protocols based on a fullerunderstanding of transboundary air pollution issues.
RESPONSES TO GLOBAL ISSUES
A. Ozone DepletionThe Multilateral Fund set up under the
Montreal Protocol, and the Global EnvironmentFacility, has been assisting the region in meeting thegoals of the Protocol. People’s Republic of China,the largest producer and consumer of CFCs andhalons, has banned the establishment of new facilitiesproducing these compounds, and was expected tomeet the 1999 consumption target (UNEP 1998). Thecountries of Central Asia have also made considerableprogress in reducing the consumption of ozonedepleting substances (ODS). The consumption figuresfor recent years, as well as projections up to 2001(Oberthur 1999), for three of these countries areprovided in Table 6.10. The consumption of the ODSis expected to be phased out completely in thesecountries during the period 2001-2003.
B. Climate ChangeMany of the response strategies for addressing
global climate change are also effective for reducingthe “traditional” air pollutants such as particulatesand sulphur dioxide. The adoption of strategies,primarily involving improvements in the efficiencyof energy use, and greater use of energy sources otherthan coal, automatically result in lowering the
emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), the largestcontributor to climate change.
1. Improving the Efficiency of Energy UseThere is usually a linear relationship between
the amount of energy used and the emission of airpollutants. Utilizing equipment that produces thesame output while requiring less energy is frequentlyone of the most cost-effective approaches toimproving air quality. Newer refrigerators andcomputers, for example, use substantially less energythan their predecessors. Compact fluorescentlighting, increasingly used in offices, is anotherexample of a technology that can reduce energy useby more than 50 per cent, while providing the sameamount of lighting. One measure of energy efficiencyis the ratio of energy use to Gross Domestic Product(GDP). People’s Republic of China is an example ofa country that has been able to increase its GDPduring the past 20 years at almost twice the rate ofincrease of energy use.
The Global Environment Facility and UNDPare promoting a number of projects to assist countriesin the region to assess their emissions and toformulate strategies to reduce them. For example,the countries participating in the ALGAS projectidentified a number of mitigation options in theenergy sector, as shown in Table 6.11. Most of theserepresent opportunities for improving energyefficiency.
2. Reducing Emissions of Carbon DioxideFor many of the air pollutants, such as
suspended particulates and sulphur dioxide, it ispossible to install devices like electrostaticprecipitators and scrubbers that can reduce emissionsby 90 per cent or more. At present, such an option isnot economically feasible for reducing carbon dioxideemissions. The two most effective strategies forreducing emissions of CO2 are, improving the
Table 6.10 Consumption of Ozone Depleting Substances in Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan
efficiency of energy use and increasing the use oflow carbon or non-carbon energy sources.
3. Increasing the Use of Low Carbon or Non-CarbonEnergy SourcesEmissions of CO2 as well as of traditional air
pollutants can be reduced by fuel substitution.Replacing coal and oil with natural gas where feasiblecan improve air quality. Japan was the first countryin Asia to make a policy decision to use liquefiednatural gas for electricity generation in areas whereair pollution was already high. In addition, theGovernment of Japan has initiated actions in localgovernment to combat global warming (Box 6.6). Inmore recent years, the Republic of Korea has alsobecome an importer of liquefied natural gas.Moreover, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei Darussalam,
and Australia have benefited from this trend, andare four of the five largest exporters of the fuel in theworld.
With the exception of biomass, none of therenewable sources of energy such as solar(photovoltaics – PVs), wind farms, and hydropoweremit greenhouse gases when operating. Starting froma small base, the production and installed capacityof PVs and wind power have been increasing rapidlyin recent years. Japan is now the second largestproducer of PVs in the world, and during the 1990s,India has emerged as a major producer of electricityfrom wind power. The installed capacity for windpower in the different states of India is shown inTable 6.12.
Without the large scale implementation ofmitigation options in the energy sector, the emissions
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Box 6.6 Measures by Local Government in Japan to Combat Climate Change
Since 1993, local governments in Japan, both at prefecture and municipality level, with the provision of subsidies from theEnvironment Agency of Japan have established local plans for implementing measures against global warming. The plans aredivided into two parts. The first part of the plan provides for facilitating measures against global warming and the second partprovides for the implementation of measures against global warming directly by local governments themselves. Elements of theplan include: assessment of the current situation of emissions and removal of Greenhouse Gas within the prefecture/towns; listingof possible measures against global warming by sectors and by actors; setting targets for emission reduction (if possible); andidentifying challenges, opportunities and relevant conditions for the implementation of measures set forth.
In addition to the subsidies for establishing plans, the Environment Agency since 1997, has also started to provide additionalsubsidies to local governments for implementing model measures against global warming. The model measures that qualify forsubsidies are: bicycle promotion projects; greening of Government office operations with both hard and soft measures; introductionof CNG operated buses for public transportation; and R&D for coal fired boilers for Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ) underUNFCCC.
As of July 2000, 29 (of 47) prefectures and 19 (of more than 3 000) municipalities have established plans to promote measuresfor the control of greenhouse gases. Moreover, the local governments have been formulating their own Action Plans for reduction ofgreenhouse gas emissions. The formulation of such action plans are mandatory in the provision of the Law Concerning thePromotion of Measures to Cope with Global Warming, which entered into force in April 1999, as part of the initial response to theadoption of the Kyoto Protocol of COP3/UNFCCC.
With their increasing involvement in such activities, local governments in Japan are not only expected to become climateconscious in their overall operations but are also expected to promote the activities of other stakeholders such as citizens, factoriesand offices within their own jurisdictions.
Source: Government of Japan
Table 6.12 Installed Capacity of Wind Power inIndian States, 1997-1998
Wind power installed capacity (MW)
Commercial Projects
State Additions in Total Cumulative1997/1998 Capacity
Tamil Nadu 31.14 687.94 707.30
Gujarat 20.10 149.57 166.91
Andhra Pradesh 1.50 52.74 55.79
Karnataka 11.17 14.44 17.01
Kerala – – 2.03
Maharashtra 0.23 0.99 5.60
Madhya Pradesh 2.70 11.70 12.29
Orissa – – 1.10
Others – – 0.47
Total 66.83 917.38 968.48
Source: MNES 1997
of carbon dioxide from the use of fossil fuels in theeleven ALGAS countries are expected to more thantriple from 1990 to 2020. Implementation of themitigation options could reduce these futureemissions by 30-50 per cent (ADB 1998).
4. Enhancing Sinks of Carbon DioxideTrees and plants absorb carbon from the
atmosphere through photosynthesis and release it
through respiration and decay. However,deforestation, mainly in the tropics, currently offsetsthe absorptive capacity by about 2 billion tonnes ofcarbon each year. This amount can be substantiallyreduced by increasing the land brought underforestry, and by planting more trees (where feasible)in existing forests. This is already beginning tohappen in many countries of Asia and the Pacific,including People’s Republic of China, India, andJapan. The ADB, the Global Environment Facility,UNDP, the World Bank, and other developmentassistance agencies are providing funding for manyof the reforestation projects.
5. Reducing Emissions of Methane and OtherGreenhouse GasesThe degree of difficulty in reducing emissions
of any greenhouse gas depends on the source of thatgas. It is much easier to reduce emissions of carbondioxide from a power plant, for example, throughimproving the efficiency of the boiler, than to reduceemissions of methane from individual livestockanimals grazing in the fields. Improved feedstockhas been developed to reduce such emissions, but itis still too expensive in most cases to transport itover large distances (which can cause subsidaryimpacts). Methane from landfills, coal, mines, andoil production, is beginning to be utilized as energyin a number of countries in the region, includingPeople’s Republic of China, and India. The options
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Table 6.13 Options for Reducing Future Emissions of Methane in the Agricultural Sector in Selected Countries
Category and Type of Countries Considering Features Mitigation PotentialMitigation Options the Option CH
4 Kg/ha or animal/year
Livestock SectorProviding mineral Indonesia, PR China 10-30 per cent increase in milk 15.4blocks/MNB yield (only for dairy cattle) (3.8-27)
Enhances protein use efficiencyEnhances feed conversion efficiency
Molasses-Urea block Indonesia, Bangladesh, Increases feed conversion efficiency 14.0Myanmar, India 25 per cent increase in milk yield
CH4 reduced by 27 per cent60 per cent increase in animal productivity
Urea treatment of straw PR China, Indonesia, Rice straw soaked in 2 per cent urea for 15d, 6.1Myanmar, Viet Nam improves digestibility up to 25 per cent, (3.8-8.3)
15-20 per cent achievable in field, milk yieldincreases by 20-30 per cent
Chemical/Mechanical Viet Nam, Republic of Korea Improves digestibility by 5 per cent 10 (5-15)feed treatment Enhances weight gain (6 kg/yr)
10-30 per cent reduction in CH3
Genetic improvements Indonesia 10 per cent reduction in CH4 (IPCC) 8.3160 per cent increase in milk yield
Manure ManagementBiogas plants Indonesia, Republic of Korea, 70 per cent reduction in CH4 emissions 2-39
PR China (where lagoons are utilized)
Rice ProductionIntermittent drainage Philippines, PR China Transports less CH4 from soil to air 3.7-38(3-4 times per season) Tested in few countries only e.g. IR-64Low CH4 emitting varieties
Livestock SectorUsing composted China, Philippines Estimated at 50 per cent 48-128organic matter CH4 reduction (NR) 24-62%
Dry-seeded nursery PR China Reduces period of flooding 14.45-23%
No tillage Indonesia Brings about 12 per cent reduction 22.9in CH4 emissions
Ammonium sulphate usage Philippines, Indonesia Competes with methane bacteria and 5.5suppresses CH4 production by (1-10)about 20 per cent (IPCC)
Source: ADB 1998
available for reducing future emissions of methanefrom the agriculture sector are shown in Table 6.13.
6. Adaptation StrategiesWhile efforts of the global community to reduce
emissions of greenhouse gases continue, it isnecessary to acknowledge that it may be severaldecades before the emissions stabilize andsubsequently decline. Due to the long life in theatmosphere of many of the greenhouse gases,including carbon dioxide, a degree of climate changeis very likely to occur. Some countries are thereforesuggesting that it may be prudent to begin planningto minimize the possible adverse effects in some areasthat may be particularly vulnerable, such as
coastlines, areas already suffering from drought, andsmall island states.
7. International Agreements on Global ClimateChangeAn important outcome of the United Nations
Conference on Environment and Development, heldat Rio de Janeiro in June 1992 was the signing byworld leaders of the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Morethan 165 countries have already signed. By definition,UNFCCC provides a general framework for stepsthat individual countries might take to address theproblem of global climate change. It does not setspecific targets and timetables for reducing emissions;
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rather the Conference of the Parties (COP) has an annualmeeting to determine the details for implementingthe Framework.
At the third meeting (COP3) in Kyoto at theend of 1997, the countries agreed to a Protocol thatcommits the industrialized countries to reduce theircombined emissions of greenhouse gases from their1990 levels by the period 2008-2012. Specific targetswere agreed to by each of the industrialized countries.Of the countries in the ESCAP region, Japan agreedto a reduction of 6 per cent, New Zealand agreed tokeep its emissions at the same level as in 1990, andAustralia negotiated an agreement to be able toincrease its emissions by 8 per cent above its 1990level.
Although the Kyoto Protocol represented amajor step forward, a great number of issues stillremain. For example, at present there is no bindingrequirement for the developing countries to reduceeven the rate of growth of their emissions.
CONCLUSION
Deteriorating quality of urban air,transboundary pollution including haze and acid rain,and the greenhouse effect are the major problemsfacing the atmospheric environment in the region.Urban air quality has deteriorated in the wake ofrapid growth in urbanization, increasing traffic, rapidindustrialization and increased energy consumption.Whether as a result of the effect of earth’s long-termweather patterns, or a factor of atmosphericpollutants, the threat from global warming has severallong-term implications including the potential for sealevel rise which would be catastrophic for manycoastal areas of the region.
Depending on the rate and extent of climaticfluctuations, the global sea level may rise by as muchas 0.95 metres by 2100, up to five times as much as
during the last century. The human cost of this couldbe enormous in Asia and the Pacific because theregion has vast coastlines, large amounts ofproductive land in low-lying areas, and largeconcentrations of people in coastal cities or near thesea. The densely populated river deltas ofBangladesh, People’s Republic of China, Indonesia,Viet Nam as well as Small Island developing statesin the South Pacific, are particularly vulnerable.Besides sea level rise, other important consequencesof global warming are an increase in climate-relatednatural disasters (floods, droughts, and storms) andthe disruption of agriculture and biodiversity due tochanges in temperature, rainfall and winds. Theeffects may be quite severe on coastal mangroveforests, wetlands and coral reefs. For example, it hasbeen observed that a 0.25 metre rise in sea levelscould destroy about half of Asia’s remainingwetlands.
The threats posed by haze, acid rain andtransboundary pollution have also increasedsubstantially in recent years. Incidents of haze haveoccurred from time to time, but the most seriousepisode occurred in 1997 and 1998, where forest firesaffected 12.4 million people in Indonesia alone, andextended to neighbouring countries such as thePhilippines, Papua New Guinea, Brunei Darussalam,Singapore and Thailand. Acid rain has also becomea major concern in several parts of the region,particularly Northeast Asia. At least two thirds ofacid depositions in the region are caused bycoal-fired power plants with minimal or outdatedpollution control equipment. Moreover, sulphur andnitrogen oxides emissions can have serioustransboundary impacts, as they can be carried forhundreds of miles. Given the projected growth ofenergy consumption in the region, the need for urgentand effective emissions controls is thereforeparamount.
