+ All Categories
Home > Documents > Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment...

Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment...

Date post: 04-Jul-2020
Category:
Upload: others
View: 1 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend
106
Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering Committee December 13, 2017
Transcript
Page 1: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Chesapeake Bay ProgramMidpoint Assessment Overview

Phase 3 WIP Steering Committee

December 13 2017

bull Goal for Today ndash Final Input Before PSC Meeting

bull Midpoint Assessment Statusbull Suite of Phase 6 Modelsbull Assimilative Capacity of the Chesapeake Baybull Planning Targetsbull Four Month Review Process

bull Special Cases

bull Conowingo Dambull Sector Growthbull Climate Change

bull Acknowledgement to EPA Chesapeake Bay Program Office amp Partnership

Agenda

Three Partnership Principals

bull Allocated loads must result in achievement of the statesrsquo Bay water quality standards

bull Major river basins that contribute the most to Bay water quality problems must do the most to resolve those problems

bull All tracked and reported reductions in loads are credited toward achieving assigned loads

3

Our Improved Models

4

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

5

Proposed Recommendation

Whatrsquos Changed Why and Implications

A lot has changed since 2010 and our Phase I and Phase II WIPs

bull Much improved modeling and other decision support tools

bull High resolution land cover data for entire watershed

bull Hundreds more BMPs available for crediting

bull Significant data gathered from local agricultural and municipality partners incorporated into our models and other decision support tools

6

Improved Partnership Models

bull 5 years of Partnership decision-making

bull STAC sponsored technical workshops from soil phosphorus to Conowingo

bull Independent scientific peer reviews of every Partnership model

bull Comprehensive fatal flaw review and issue resolution

7

8

Average Load + Inputs Sensitivity

Land Use Acres

BMPs

Land to Water

Stream Delivery

River Delivery

Phase 6 Watershed Model

Phase 6 Bay Watershed Model

Prior Bay Watershed Models

6

Trees

Roots Leaves

Particulate

Refractory

Organic N

Particulate

Labile

Organic N

Solution

Ammonia

Nitrate

Solution

Labile

Organic N

Adsorbed

Ammonia

Solution

Refractory

Organic N

Each submodel has a complex hydrologic or nutrient cycling structure

Atm

osp

her

ic D

eposi

tion

Den

itri

fica

tio

n

Export

Export Export ExportExport Export Export

Phase 5 30-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Phase 6 1-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Hundreds More BMPs

10

Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND

Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO

Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED

Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO

Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD

Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO

Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND

Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO

Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED

Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO

Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD

Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO

Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND

Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO

Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA

Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED

Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO

Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND

Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO

Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA

Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED

Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO

Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA

Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED

Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO

Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD

Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO

Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND

Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO

Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA

CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED

CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO

CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD

Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO

DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND

DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO

DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA

Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED

Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO

Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD

Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO

Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND

Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO

Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO

Local Agricultural and Municipality Data

bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems

bull Combined Sewer Systems

bull Sewer Service Areas

bull Land Cover

bull Land Use

bull Parcels

bull Roads

bull Beaches

bull Institutional lands

bull Federal lands

bull Golf courses

bull Surface mines

bull Landfills

bull Protected lands

bull Streams

bull Wetlands

bull Tidal zones

bull Floodplains

bull Frequently flooded soils

bull Livestock populations

bull Poultry populations

bull Crop hay and pasture acreages

bull Crop yields

bull Soil P concentrations

bull BMPs

11

Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data

bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points

bull Hundreds of monitoring stations

bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment

bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades

y=09889x

Rsup2=092566

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243

y=09754x

Rsup2=06632

00

03

06

09

12

15

18

21

24

00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24

PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099

y=09416x

Rsup2=094272

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370

y=09863x

Rsup2=064849

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696

[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies

[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

SIMULA

TEDLOADS(lbsye

ar)

USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)

1-to-1

TOTN

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates

BASIN Sept June Phase5

SUSQ -01 -03 -01

POTO -09 -09 -22

JAME -09 -02 -07

RAPP -11 -07 -10

APPO -18 -07 -02

PAMU -08 00 06

MATT 06 07 -06

PATU 08 05 19

CHOP -01 08 -13

[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites

Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the

Watershed

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

14

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

15

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

16

Proposed Recommendation

Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants

(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science

Analysis and Implementation

17

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 2: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

bull Goal for Today ndash Final Input Before PSC Meeting

bull Midpoint Assessment Statusbull Suite of Phase 6 Modelsbull Assimilative Capacity of the Chesapeake Baybull Planning Targetsbull Four Month Review Process

bull Special Cases

bull Conowingo Dambull Sector Growthbull Climate Change

bull Acknowledgement to EPA Chesapeake Bay Program Office amp Partnership

Agenda

Three Partnership Principals

bull Allocated loads must result in achievement of the statesrsquo Bay water quality standards

bull Major river basins that contribute the most to Bay water quality problems must do the most to resolve those problems

bull All tracked and reported reductions in loads are credited toward achieving assigned loads

3

Our Improved Models

4

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

5

Proposed Recommendation

Whatrsquos Changed Why and Implications

A lot has changed since 2010 and our Phase I and Phase II WIPs

bull Much improved modeling and other decision support tools

bull High resolution land cover data for entire watershed

bull Hundreds more BMPs available for crediting

bull Significant data gathered from local agricultural and municipality partners incorporated into our models and other decision support tools

6

Improved Partnership Models

bull 5 years of Partnership decision-making

bull STAC sponsored technical workshops from soil phosphorus to Conowingo

bull Independent scientific peer reviews of every Partnership model

bull Comprehensive fatal flaw review and issue resolution

7

8

Average Load + Inputs Sensitivity

Land Use Acres

BMPs

Land to Water

Stream Delivery

River Delivery

Phase 6 Watershed Model

Phase 6 Bay Watershed Model

Prior Bay Watershed Models

6

Trees

Roots Leaves

Particulate

Refractory

Organic N

Particulate

Labile

Organic N

Solution

Ammonia

Nitrate

Solution

Labile

Organic N

Adsorbed

Ammonia

Solution

Refractory

Organic N

Each submodel has a complex hydrologic or nutrient cycling structure

Atm

osp

her

ic D

eposi

tion

Den

itri

fica

tio

n

Export

Export Export ExportExport Export Export

Phase 5 30-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Phase 6 1-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Hundreds More BMPs

10

Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND

Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO

Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED

Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO

Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD

Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO

Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND

Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO

Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED

Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO

Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD

Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO

Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND

Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO

Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA

Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED

Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO

Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND

Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO

Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA

Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED

Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO

Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA

Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED

Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO

Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD

Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO

Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND

Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO

Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA

CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED

CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO

CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD

Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO

DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND

DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO

DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA

Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED

Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO

Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD

Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO

Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND

Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO

Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO

Local Agricultural and Municipality Data

bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems

bull Combined Sewer Systems

bull Sewer Service Areas

bull Land Cover

bull Land Use

bull Parcels

bull Roads

bull Beaches

bull Institutional lands

bull Federal lands

bull Golf courses

bull Surface mines

bull Landfills

bull Protected lands

bull Streams

bull Wetlands

bull Tidal zones

bull Floodplains

bull Frequently flooded soils

bull Livestock populations

bull Poultry populations

bull Crop hay and pasture acreages

bull Crop yields

bull Soil P concentrations

bull BMPs

11

Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data

bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points

bull Hundreds of monitoring stations

bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment

bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades

y=09889x

Rsup2=092566

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243

y=09754x

Rsup2=06632

00

03

06

09

12

15

18

21

24

00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24

PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099

y=09416x

Rsup2=094272

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370

y=09863x

Rsup2=064849

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696

[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies

[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

SIMULA

TEDLOADS(lbsye

ar)

USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)

1-to-1

TOTN

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates

BASIN Sept June Phase5

SUSQ -01 -03 -01

POTO -09 -09 -22

JAME -09 -02 -07

RAPP -11 -07 -10

APPO -18 -07 -02

PAMU -08 00 06

MATT 06 07 -06

PATU 08 05 19

CHOP -01 08 -13

[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites

Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the

Watershed

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

14

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

15

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

16

Proposed Recommendation

Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants

(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science

Analysis and Implementation

17

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 3: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Three Partnership Principals

bull Allocated loads must result in achievement of the statesrsquo Bay water quality standards

bull Major river basins that contribute the most to Bay water quality problems must do the most to resolve those problems

bull All tracked and reported reductions in loads are credited toward achieving assigned loads

3

Our Improved Models

4

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

5

Proposed Recommendation

Whatrsquos Changed Why and Implications

A lot has changed since 2010 and our Phase I and Phase II WIPs

bull Much improved modeling and other decision support tools

bull High resolution land cover data for entire watershed

bull Hundreds more BMPs available for crediting

bull Significant data gathered from local agricultural and municipality partners incorporated into our models and other decision support tools

6

Improved Partnership Models

bull 5 years of Partnership decision-making

bull STAC sponsored technical workshops from soil phosphorus to Conowingo

bull Independent scientific peer reviews of every Partnership model

bull Comprehensive fatal flaw review and issue resolution

7

8

Average Load + Inputs Sensitivity

Land Use Acres

BMPs

Land to Water

Stream Delivery

River Delivery

Phase 6 Watershed Model

Phase 6 Bay Watershed Model

Prior Bay Watershed Models

6

Trees

Roots Leaves

Particulate

Refractory

Organic N

Particulate

Labile

Organic N

Solution

Ammonia

Nitrate

Solution

Labile

Organic N

Adsorbed

Ammonia

Solution

Refractory

Organic N

Each submodel has a complex hydrologic or nutrient cycling structure

Atm

osp

her

ic D

eposi

tion

Den

itri

fica

tio

n

Export

Export Export ExportExport Export Export

Phase 5 30-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Phase 6 1-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Hundreds More BMPs

10

Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND

Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO

Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED

Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO

Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD

Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO

Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND

Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO

Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED

Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO

Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD

Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO

Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND

Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO

Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA

Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED

Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO

Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND

Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO

Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA

Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED

Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO

Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA

Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED

Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO

Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD

Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO

Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND

Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO

Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA

CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED

CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO

CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD

Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO

DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND

DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO

DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA

Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED

Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO

Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD

Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO

Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND

Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO

Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO

Local Agricultural and Municipality Data

bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems

bull Combined Sewer Systems

bull Sewer Service Areas

bull Land Cover

bull Land Use

bull Parcels

bull Roads

bull Beaches

bull Institutional lands

bull Federal lands

bull Golf courses

bull Surface mines

bull Landfills

bull Protected lands

bull Streams

bull Wetlands

bull Tidal zones

bull Floodplains

bull Frequently flooded soils

bull Livestock populations

bull Poultry populations

bull Crop hay and pasture acreages

bull Crop yields

bull Soil P concentrations

bull BMPs

11

Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data

bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points

bull Hundreds of monitoring stations

bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment

bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades

y=09889x

Rsup2=092566

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243

y=09754x

Rsup2=06632

00

03

06

09

12

15

18

21

24

00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24

PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099

y=09416x

Rsup2=094272

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370

y=09863x

Rsup2=064849

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696

[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies

[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

SIMULA

TEDLOADS(lbsye

ar)

USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)

1-to-1

TOTN

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates

BASIN Sept June Phase5

SUSQ -01 -03 -01

POTO -09 -09 -22

JAME -09 -02 -07

RAPP -11 -07 -10

APPO -18 -07 -02

PAMU -08 00 06

MATT 06 07 -06

PATU 08 05 19

CHOP -01 08 -13

[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites

Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the

Watershed

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

14

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

15

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

16

Proposed Recommendation

Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants

(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science

Analysis and Implementation

17

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 4: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Our Improved Models

4

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

5

Proposed Recommendation

Whatrsquos Changed Why and Implications

A lot has changed since 2010 and our Phase I and Phase II WIPs

bull Much improved modeling and other decision support tools

bull High resolution land cover data for entire watershed

bull Hundreds more BMPs available for crediting

bull Significant data gathered from local agricultural and municipality partners incorporated into our models and other decision support tools

6

Improved Partnership Models

bull 5 years of Partnership decision-making

bull STAC sponsored technical workshops from soil phosphorus to Conowingo

bull Independent scientific peer reviews of every Partnership model

bull Comprehensive fatal flaw review and issue resolution

7

8

Average Load + Inputs Sensitivity

Land Use Acres

BMPs

Land to Water

Stream Delivery

River Delivery

Phase 6 Watershed Model

Phase 6 Bay Watershed Model

Prior Bay Watershed Models

6

Trees

Roots Leaves

Particulate

Refractory

Organic N

Particulate

Labile

Organic N

Solution

Ammonia

Nitrate

Solution

Labile

Organic N

Adsorbed

Ammonia

Solution

Refractory

Organic N

Each submodel has a complex hydrologic or nutrient cycling structure

Atm

osp

her

ic D

eposi

tion

Den

itri

fica

tio

n

Export

Export Export ExportExport Export Export

Phase 5 30-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Phase 6 1-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Hundreds More BMPs

10

Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND

Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO

Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED

Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO

Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD

Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO

Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND

Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO

Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED

Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO

Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD

Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO

Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND

Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO

Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA

Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED

Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO

Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND

Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO

Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA

Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED

Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO

Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA

Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED

Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO

Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD

Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO

Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND

Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO

Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA

CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED

CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO

CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD

Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO

DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND

DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO

DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA

Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED

Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO

Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD

Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO

Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND

Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO

Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO

Local Agricultural and Municipality Data

bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems

bull Combined Sewer Systems

bull Sewer Service Areas

bull Land Cover

bull Land Use

bull Parcels

bull Roads

bull Beaches

bull Institutional lands

bull Federal lands

bull Golf courses

bull Surface mines

bull Landfills

bull Protected lands

bull Streams

bull Wetlands

bull Tidal zones

bull Floodplains

bull Frequently flooded soils

bull Livestock populations

bull Poultry populations

bull Crop hay and pasture acreages

bull Crop yields

bull Soil P concentrations

bull BMPs

11

Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data

bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points

bull Hundreds of monitoring stations

bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment

bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades

y=09889x

Rsup2=092566

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243

y=09754x

Rsup2=06632

00

03

06

09

12

15

18

21

24

00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24

PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099

y=09416x

Rsup2=094272

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370

y=09863x

Rsup2=064849

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696

[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies

[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

SIMULA

TEDLOADS(lbsye

ar)

USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)

1-to-1

TOTN

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates

BASIN Sept June Phase5

SUSQ -01 -03 -01

POTO -09 -09 -22

JAME -09 -02 -07

RAPP -11 -07 -10

APPO -18 -07 -02

PAMU -08 00 06

MATT 06 07 -06

PATU 08 05 19

CHOP -01 08 -13

[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites

Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the

Watershed

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

14

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

15

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

16

Proposed Recommendation

Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants

(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science

Analysis and Implementation

17

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 5: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

5

Proposed Recommendation

Whatrsquos Changed Why and Implications

A lot has changed since 2010 and our Phase I and Phase II WIPs

bull Much improved modeling and other decision support tools

bull High resolution land cover data for entire watershed

bull Hundreds more BMPs available for crediting

bull Significant data gathered from local agricultural and municipality partners incorporated into our models and other decision support tools

6

Improved Partnership Models

bull 5 years of Partnership decision-making

bull STAC sponsored technical workshops from soil phosphorus to Conowingo

bull Independent scientific peer reviews of every Partnership model

bull Comprehensive fatal flaw review and issue resolution

7

8

Average Load + Inputs Sensitivity

Land Use Acres

BMPs

Land to Water

Stream Delivery

River Delivery

Phase 6 Watershed Model

Phase 6 Bay Watershed Model

Prior Bay Watershed Models

6

Trees

Roots Leaves

Particulate

Refractory

Organic N

Particulate

Labile

Organic N

Solution

Ammonia

Nitrate

Solution

Labile

Organic N

Adsorbed

Ammonia

Solution

Refractory

Organic N

Each submodel has a complex hydrologic or nutrient cycling structure

Atm

osp

her

ic D

eposi

tion

Den

itri

fica

tio

n

Export

Export Export ExportExport Export Export

Phase 5 30-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Phase 6 1-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Hundreds More BMPs

10

Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND

Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO

Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED

Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO

Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD

Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO

Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND

Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO

Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED

Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO

Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD

Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO

Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND

Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO

Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA

Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED

Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO

Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND

Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO

Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA

Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED

Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO

Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA

Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED

Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO

Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD

Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO

Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND

Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO

Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA

CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED

CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO

CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD

Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO

DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND

DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO

DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA

Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED

Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO

Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD

Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO

Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND

Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO

Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO

Local Agricultural and Municipality Data

bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems

bull Combined Sewer Systems

bull Sewer Service Areas

bull Land Cover

bull Land Use

bull Parcels

bull Roads

bull Beaches

bull Institutional lands

bull Federal lands

bull Golf courses

bull Surface mines

bull Landfills

bull Protected lands

bull Streams

bull Wetlands

bull Tidal zones

bull Floodplains

bull Frequently flooded soils

bull Livestock populations

bull Poultry populations

bull Crop hay and pasture acreages

bull Crop yields

bull Soil P concentrations

bull BMPs

11

Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data

bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points

bull Hundreds of monitoring stations

bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment

bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades

y=09889x

Rsup2=092566

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243

y=09754x

Rsup2=06632

00

03

06

09

12

15

18

21

24

00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24

PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099

y=09416x

Rsup2=094272

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370

y=09863x

Rsup2=064849

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696

[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies

[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

SIMULA

TEDLOADS(lbsye

ar)

USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)

1-to-1

TOTN

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates

BASIN Sept June Phase5

SUSQ -01 -03 -01

POTO -09 -09 -22

JAME -09 -02 -07

RAPP -11 -07 -10

APPO -18 -07 -02

PAMU -08 00 06

MATT 06 07 -06

PATU 08 05 19

CHOP -01 08 -13

[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites

Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the

Watershed

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

14

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

15

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

16

Proposed Recommendation

Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants

(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science

Analysis and Implementation

17

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 6: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Whatrsquos Changed Why and Implications

A lot has changed since 2010 and our Phase I and Phase II WIPs

bull Much improved modeling and other decision support tools

bull High resolution land cover data for entire watershed

bull Hundreds more BMPs available for crediting

bull Significant data gathered from local agricultural and municipality partners incorporated into our models and other decision support tools

6

Improved Partnership Models

bull 5 years of Partnership decision-making

bull STAC sponsored technical workshops from soil phosphorus to Conowingo

bull Independent scientific peer reviews of every Partnership model

bull Comprehensive fatal flaw review and issue resolution

7

8

Average Load + Inputs Sensitivity

Land Use Acres

BMPs

Land to Water

Stream Delivery

River Delivery

Phase 6 Watershed Model

Phase 6 Bay Watershed Model

Prior Bay Watershed Models

6

Trees

Roots Leaves

Particulate

Refractory

Organic N

Particulate

Labile

Organic N

Solution

Ammonia

Nitrate

Solution

Labile

Organic N

Adsorbed

Ammonia

Solution

Refractory

Organic N

Each submodel has a complex hydrologic or nutrient cycling structure

Atm

osp

her

ic D

eposi

tion

Den

itri

fica

tio

n

Export

Export Export ExportExport Export Export

Phase 5 30-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Phase 6 1-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Hundreds More BMPs

10

Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND

Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO

Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED

Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO

Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD

Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO

Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND

Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO

Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED

Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO

Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD

Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO

Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND

Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO

Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA

Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED

Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO

Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND

Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO

Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA

Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED

Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO

Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA

Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED

Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO

Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD

Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO

Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND

Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO

Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA

CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED

CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO

CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD

Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO

DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND

DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO

DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA

Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED

Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO

Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD

Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO

Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND

Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO

Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO

Local Agricultural and Municipality Data

bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems

bull Combined Sewer Systems

bull Sewer Service Areas

bull Land Cover

bull Land Use

bull Parcels

bull Roads

bull Beaches

bull Institutional lands

bull Federal lands

bull Golf courses

bull Surface mines

bull Landfills

bull Protected lands

bull Streams

bull Wetlands

bull Tidal zones

bull Floodplains

bull Frequently flooded soils

bull Livestock populations

bull Poultry populations

bull Crop hay and pasture acreages

bull Crop yields

bull Soil P concentrations

bull BMPs

11

Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data

bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points

bull Hundreds of monitoring stations

bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment

bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades

y=09889x

Rsup2=092566

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243

y=09754x

Rsup2=06632

00

03

06

09

12

15

18

21

24

00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24

PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099

y=09416x

Rsup2=094272

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370

y=09863x

Rsup2=064849

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696

[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies

[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

SIMULA

TEDLOADS(lbsye

ar)

USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)

1-to-1

TOTN

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates

BASIN Sept June Phase5

SUSQ -01 -03 -01

POTO -09 -09 -22

JAME -09 -02 -07

RAPP -11 -07 -10

APPO -18 -07 -02

PAMU -08 00 06

MATT 06 07 -06

PATU 08 05 19

CHOP -01 08 -13

[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites

Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the

Watershed

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

14

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

15

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

16

Proposed Recommendation

Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants

(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science

Analysis and Implementation

17

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 7: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Improved Partnership Models

bull 5 years of Partnership decision-making

bull STAC sponsored technical workshops from soil phosphorus to Conowingo

bull Independent scientific peer reviews of every Partnership model

bull Comprehensive fatal flaw review and issue resolution

7

8

Average Load + Inputs Sensitivity

Land Use Acres

BMPs

Land to Water

Stream Delivery

River Delivery

Phase 6 Watershed Model

Phase 6 Bay Watershed Model

Prior Bay Watershed Models

6

Trees

Roots Leaves

Particulate

Refractory

Organic N

Particulate

Labile

Organic N

Solution

Ammonia

Nitrate

Solution

Labile

Organic N

Adsorbed

Ammonia

Solution

Refractory

Organic N

Each submodel has a complex hydrologic or nutrient cycling structure

Atm

osp

her

ic D

eposi

tion

Den

itri

fica

tio

n

Export

Export Export ExportExport Export Export

Phase 5 30-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Phase 6 1-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Hundreds More BMPs

10

Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND

Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO

Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED

Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO

Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD

Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO

Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND

Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO

Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED

Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO

Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD

Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO

Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND

Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO

Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA

Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED

Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO

Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND

Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO

Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA

Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED

Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO

Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA

Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED

Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO

Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD

Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO

Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND

Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO

Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA

CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED

CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO

CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD

Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO

DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND

DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO

DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA

Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED

Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO

Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD

Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO

Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND

Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO

Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO

Local Agricultural and Municipality Data

bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems

bull Combined Sewer Systems

bull Sewer Service Areas

bull Land Cover

bull Land Use

bull Parcels

bull Roads

bull Beaches

bull Institutional lands

bull Federal lands

bull Golf courses

bull Surface mines

bull Landfills

bull Protected lands

bull Streams

bull Wetlands

bull Tidal zones

bull Floodplains

bull Frequently flooded soils

bull Livestock populations

bull Poultry populations

bull Crop hay and pasture acreages

bull Crop yields

bull Soil P concentrations

bull BMPs

11

Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data

bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points

bull Hundreds of monitoring stations

bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment

bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades

y=09889x

Rsup2=092566

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243

y=09754x

Rsup2=06632

00

03

06

09

12

15

18

21

24

00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24

PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099

y=09416x

Rsup2=094272

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370

y=09863x

Rsup2=064849

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696

[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies

[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

SIMULA

TEDLOADS(lbsye

ar)

USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)

1-to-1

TOTN

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates

BASIN Sept June Phase5

SUSQ -01 -03 -01

POTO -09 -09 -22

JAME -09 -02 -07

RAPP -11 -07 -10

APPO -18 -07 -02

PAMU -08 00 06

MATT 06 07 -06

PATU 08 05 19

CHOP -01 08 -13

[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites

Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the

Watershed

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

14

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

15

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

16

Proposed Recommendation

Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants

(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science

Analysis and Implementation

17

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 8: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

8

Average Load + Inputs Sensitivity

Land Use Acres

BMPs

Land to Water

Stream Delivery

River Delivery

Phase 6 Watershed Model

Phase 6 Bay Watershed Model

Prior Bay Watershed Models

6

Trees

Roots Leaves

Particulate

Refractory

Organic N

Particulate

Labile

Organic N

Solution

Ammonia

Nitrate

Solution

Labile

Organic N

Adsorbed

Ammonia

Solution

Refractory

Organic N

Each submodel has a complex hydrologic or nutrient cycling structure

Atm

osp

her

ic D

eposi

tion

Den

itri

fica

tio

n

Export

Export Export ExportExport Export Export

Phase 5 30-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Phase 6 1-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Hundreds More BMPs

10

Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND

Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO

Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED

Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO

Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD

Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO

Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND

Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO

Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED

Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO

Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD

Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO

Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND

Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO

Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA

Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED

Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO

Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND

Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO

Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA

Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED

Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO

Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA

Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED

Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO

Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD

Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO

Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND

Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO

Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA

CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED

CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO

CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD

Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO

DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND

DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO

DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA

Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED

Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO

Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD

Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO

Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND

Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO

Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO

Local Agricultural and Municipality Data

bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems

bull Combined Sewer Systems

bull Sewer Service Areas

bull Land Cover

bull Land Use

bull Parcels

bull Roads

bull Beaches

bull Institutional lands

bull Federal lands

bull Golf courses

bull Surface mines

bull Landfills

bull Protected lands

bull Streams

bull Wetlands

bull Tidal zones

bull Floodplains

bull Frequently flooded soils

bull Livestock populations

bull Poultry populations

bull Crop hay and pasture acreages

bull Crop yields

bull Soil P concentrations

bull BMPs

11

Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data

bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points

bull Hundreds of monitoring stations

bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment

bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades

y=09889x

Rsup2=092566

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243

y=09754x

Rsup2=06632

00

03

06

09

12

15

18

21

24

00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24

PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099

y=09416x

Rsup2=094272

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370

y=09863x

Rsup2=064849

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696

[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies

[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

SIMULA

TEDLOADS(lbsye

ar)

USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)

1-to-1

TOTN

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates

BASIN Sept June Phase5

SUSQ -01 -03 -01

POTO -09 -09 -22

JAME -09 -02 -07

RAPP -11 -07 -10

APPO -18 -07 -02

PAMU -08 00 06

MATT 06 07 -06

PATU 08 05 19

CHOP -01 08 -13

[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites

Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the

Watershed

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

14

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

15

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

16

Proposed Recommendation

Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants

(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science

Analysis and Implementation

17

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 9: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Phase 5 30-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Phase 6 1-Meter

Resolution Land

UseLand Cover Data

Hundreds More BMPs

10

Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND

Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO

Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED

Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO

Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD

Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO

Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND

Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO

Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED

Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO

Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD

Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO

Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND

Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO

Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA

Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED

Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO

Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND

Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO

Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA

Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED

Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO

Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA

Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED

Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO

Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD

Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO

Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND

Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO

Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA

CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED

CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO

CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD

Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO

DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND

DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO

DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA

Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED

Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO

Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD

Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO

Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND

Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO

Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO

Local Agricultural and Municipality Data

bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems

bull Combined Sewer Systems

bull Sewer Service Areas

bull Land Cover

bull Land Use

bull Parcels

bull Roads

bull Beaches

bull Institutional lands

bull Federal lands

bull Golf courses

bull Surface mines

bull Landfills

bull Protected lands

bull Streams

bull Wetlands

bull Tidal zones

bull Floodplains

bull Frequently flooded soils

bull Livestock populations

bull Poultry populations

bull Crop hay and pasture acreages

bull Crop yields

bull Soil P concentrations

bull BMPs

11

Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data

bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points

bull Hundreds of monitoring stations

bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment

bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades

y=09889x

Rsup2=092566

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243

y=09754x

Rsup2=06632

00

03

06

09

12

15

18

21

24

00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24

PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099

y=09416x

Rsup2=094272

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370

y=09863x

Rsup2=064849

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696

[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies

[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

SIMULA

TEDLOADS(lbsye

ar)

USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)

1-to-1

TOTN

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates

BASIN Sept June Phase5

SUSQ -01 -03 -01

POTO -09 -09 -22

JAME -09 -02 -07

RAPP -11 -07 -10

APPO -18 -07 -02

PAMU -08 00 06

MATT 06 07 -06

PATU 08 05 19

CHOP -01 08 -13

[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites

Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the

Watershed

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

14

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

15

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

16

Proposed Recommendation

Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants

(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science

Analysis and Implementation

17

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 10: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Hundreds More BMPs

10

Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND

Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO

Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED

Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO

Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD

Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO

Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND

Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO

Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED

Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO

Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD

Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO

Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND

Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO

Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA

Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED

Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO

Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND

Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO

Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA

Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED

Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO

Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA

Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED

Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO

Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD

Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO

Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND

Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO

Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA

CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED

CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO

CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD

Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO

DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND

DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO

DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA

Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED

Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO

Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD

Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO

Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND

Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO

Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO

Local Agricultural and Municipality Data

bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems

bull Combined Sewer Systems

bull Sewer Service Areas

bull Land Cover

bull Land Use

bull Parcels

bull Roads

bull Beaches

bull Institutional lands

bull Federal lands

bull Golf courses

bull Surface mines

bull Landfills

bull Protected lands

bull Streams

bull Wetlands

bull Tidal zones

bull Floodplains

bull Frequently flooded soils

bull Livestock populations

bull Poultry populations

bull Crop hay and pasture acreages

bull Crop yields

bull Soil P concentrations

bull BMPs

11

Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data

bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points

bull Hundreds of monitoring stations

bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment

bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades

y=09889x

Rsup2=092566

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243

y=09754x

Rsup2=06632

00

03

06

09

12

15

18

21

24

00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24

PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099

y=09416x

Rsup2=094272

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370

y=09863x

Rsup2=064849

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696

[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies

[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

SIMULA

TEDLOADS(lbsye

ar)

USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)

1-to-1

TOTN

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates

BASIN Sept June Phase5

SUSQ -01 -03 -01

POTO -09 -09 -22

JAME -09 -02 -07

RAPP -11 -07 -10

APPO -18 -07 -02

PAMU -08 00 06

MATT 06 07 -06

PATU 08 05 19

CHOP -01 08 -13

[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites

Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the

Watershed

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

14

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

15

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

16

Proposed Recommendation

Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants

(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science

Analysis and Implementation

17

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 11: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Local Agricultural and Municipality Data

bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems

bull Combined Sewer Systems

bull Sewer Service Areas

bull Land Cover

bull Land Use

bull Parcels

bull Roads

bull Beaches

bull Institutional lands

bull Federal lands

bull Golf courses

bull Surface mines

bull Landfills

bull Protected lands

bull Streams

bull Wetlands

bull Tidal zones

bull Floodplains

bull Frequently flooded soils

bull Livestock populations

bull Poultry populations

bull Crop hay and pasture acreages

bull Crop yields

bull Soil P concentrations

bull BMPs

11

Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data

bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points

bull Hundreds of monitoring stations

bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment

bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades

y=09889x

Rsup2=092566

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243

y=09754x

Rsup2=06632

00

03

06

09

12

15

18

21

24

00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24

PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099

y=09416x

Rsup2=094272

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370

y=09863x

Rsup2=064849

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696

[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies

[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

SIMULA

TEDLOADS(lbsye

ar)

USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)

1-to-1

TOTN

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates

BASIN Sept June Phase5

SUSQ -01 -03 -01

POTO -09 -09 -22

JAME -09 -02 -07

RAPP -11 -07 -10

APPO -18 -07 -02

PAMU -08 00 06

MATT 06 07 -06

PATU 08 05 19

CHOP -01 08 -13

[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites

Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the

Watershed

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

14

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

15

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

16

Proposed Recommendation

Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants

(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science

Analysis and Implementation

17

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 12: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data

bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points

bull Hundreds of monitoring stations

bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment

bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades

y=09889x

Rsup2=092566

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243

y=09754x

Rsup2=06632

00

03

06

09

12

15

18

21

24

00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24

PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099

y=09416x

Rsup2=094272

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370

y=09863x

Rsup2=064849

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696

[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies

[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

SIMULA

TEDLOADS(lbsye

ar)

USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)

1-to-1

TOTN

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates

BASIN Sept June Phase5

SUSQ -01 -03 -01

POTO -09 -09 -22

JAME -09 -02 -07

RAPP -11 -07 -10

APPO -18 -07 -02

PAMU -08 00 06

MATT 06 07 -06

PATU 08 05 19

CHOP -01 08 -13

[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites

Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the

Watershed

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

14

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

15

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

16

Proposed Recommendation

Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants

(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science

Analysis and Implementation

17

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 13: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

y=09889x

Rsup2=092566

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243

y=09754x

Rsup2=06632

00

03

06

09

12

15

18

21

24

00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24

PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099

y=09416x

Rsup2=094272

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370

y=09863x

Rsup2=064849

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696

[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies

[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95

SIMULA

TEDLOADS(lbsye

ar)

USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)

1-to-1

TOTN

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9

assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates

BASIN Sept June Phase5

SUSQ -01 -03 -01

POTO -09 -09 -22

JAME -09 -02 -07

RAPP -11 -07 -10

APPO -18 -07 -02

PAMU -08 00 06

MATT 06 07 -06

PATU 08 05 19

CHOP -01 08 -13

[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites

Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the

Watershed

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

14

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

15

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

16

Proposed Recommendation

Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants

(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science

Analysis and Implementation

17

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 14: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

14

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

15

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

16

Proposed Recommendation

Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants

(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science

Analysis and Implementation

17

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 15: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever

15

NSE of monthly phosphorus load

NSE of annual phosphorus loads

= 0942

= 0935

Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

16

Proposed Recommendation

Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants

(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science

Analysis and Implementation

17

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 16: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025

16

Proposed Recommendation

Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants

(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science

Analysis and Implementation

17

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 17: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants

(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science

Analysis and Implementation

17

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 18: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

18

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 19: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

What Hasnrsquot Changed

19

Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012

bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses

bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses

bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures

bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 20: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Herersquos Where We Want to Get to

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 21: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions

Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P

+10M lbs TN

+19M lbs TN

- 9M lbs TN

-21M lbs TN

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 22: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb

bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries

bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-

channel come into attainment

bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3

22

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 23: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendation

Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus

Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus

Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018

23

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 24: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets

Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator

24

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 25: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

25

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 26: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

No Action

E3

Controllable Load

Defining the Controllable Load

26

No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to

no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment

E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum

controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient

control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 27: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

27

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 28: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

28

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 29: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

MD

-Su

sq

VA

-Esh

VA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

PA

-Esh

Up

p

PA

-Po

tA

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Mid

DC

-Po

tA

WV

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Mid

NY

-Su

sq

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Ra

pA

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Yrk

A

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 30: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

MD

-Esh

Mid

MD

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Px

tB

MD

-Wsh

MD

-Su

sq

PA

-Esh

Up

p

DE

-Esh

Up

p

MD

-Po

tB

DC

-Po

tB

MD

-Esh

Lo

w

DE

-Esh

Mid

VA

-Po

tB

VA

-Esh

VA

VA

-Po

tA

DC

-Po

tA

MD

-Px

tA

PA

-Su

sq

MD

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pA

PA

-Po

tA

VA

-Ra

pB

DE

-Esh

Lo

w

NY

-Su

sq

WV

-Po

tA

PA

-Wsh

VA

-Yrk

B

VA

-Jm

sB

VA

-Jm

sA

WV

-Jm

sA

VA

-Yrk

A

Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment

WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 31: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 1059

PA 12241 9928 7318

MD 8356 5589 4530

WV 873 806 635

DC 648 175 243

DE 697 659 459

VA 8429 6153 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 32: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0506

PA 6115 3696 3073

MD 7419 3919 3604

WV 0793 0560 0456

DC 0090 0062 0130

DE 0225 0115 0120

VA 13545 6345 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 33: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads

More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed

AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 34: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process

34

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 35: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles

35

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 36: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 081 029 063 043 045

PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606

PA

Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665

PA Western

Shore 004 001 003 002 002

PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318

Phosphorus Load

No-Action

(M lbs)

E3

(M lbs)

2013 Progress

(M lbs)

Phase II WIP

(reference)

(M lbs)

Draft Phase III

WIP Planning

Target

(M lbs)

PA Eastern

Shore 005 002 003 002 003

PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035

PA

Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269

PA Western

Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001

PA Total 747 167 369 310 307

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 37: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

draft 2016Progres

201760 Goal

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 38: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

mil

lio

n l

bs

201760 Goal

draft 2016 Progress

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 39: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 40: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)

Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning

Target

E3

mil

lio

n l

bs

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 41: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

53

15

11

2

19

639

11

1

16

PA Nitrogen Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 42: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

PA Phosphorus Loads and Target

1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target

Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural

42

530

23

36

1224

28

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 43: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month

Review Period

43

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 44: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

44

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 45: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

PSC Approved Schedule

bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making

bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases

bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets

45

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 46: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

During the 4-Month Review Period

bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets

bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins

bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin

bull Determine if any special cases are needed

46

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 47: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018

bull Requests for special conditions

bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads

bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges

bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River

47

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 48: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

What are Special Cases

Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any

1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets

2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets

48

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 49: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Who Can Submit a Special Case Request

bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator

49

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 50: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Notification of Special Case Requests

March 16 2018

Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration

50

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 51: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Process for Addressing Special Cases

1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period

2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating

bull Who has submitted special case requests

bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)

3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration

51

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 52: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Options for Resolving Special Cases

bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either

1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or

2 Request that EPA make the final decision

52

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 53: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 100 1159 1059

PA -058 7260 7318

MD -031 4499 4530

WV -003 631 635

DC 000 242 243

DE -006 453 459

VA -024 5558 5582

Basinwide -022 19803 19825

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 54: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special

CasesPhase III

Planning Target

NY 0100 0606 0506

PA -0102 2971 3073

MD -0083 3521 3604

WV 0200 0656 0456

DC -0001 0129 0130

DE -0004 0115 0120

VA -0133 6053 6186

Basinwide -0023 1405 14073

Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 55: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendation

Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests

55

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 56: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo

Phase III WIPs

56

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 57: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendation

57

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 58: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Future Growth Scenarios 2025

Purpose

To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones

Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs

bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning

bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions

58

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 59: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo

bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script

bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)

bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and

National Wildlife refuges)59

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 60: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

60

Extent of Local Zoning Data

Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 61: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 62: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

62

Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 63: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Forest Conversion to Development

63

Current ZoningScenario

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 64: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Growth on Sewer and Septic

64

Current ZoningScenario

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 65: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement

Current ZoningScenario

Current ZoningScenario

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 66: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 67: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds

WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 68: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendation

70

bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process

bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs

bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 69: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Factoring in Climate Change into the

Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs

71

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 70: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development

bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency

bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection

bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change

bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards

bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 71: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation

bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs

bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options

bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 72: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 73: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 74: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

76

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 75: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts

77

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 76: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

Deep

Channel

CB3MH MD 0 0

CB4MH MD 6 8 10

CB5MH MD 0 0 0

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 4

EASMH MD 6 7 8

Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)

78

Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH

Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH

Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed

WIP2

WIP2 +

Cono Infill

WIP2 + Cono

Infill + CC

Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN

113017 137TP 154TP 153TP

CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995

Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water

CB4MH MD 5 6 7

CB5MH MD 1 1 2

CB5MH VA 0 0 0

CB6PH VA 0 0 0

CB7PH VA 0 0 0

PATMH MD 1 2 3

MAGMH MD 1 5 5

SOUMH MD 3 8 7

SEVMH MD 0 0 0

PAXMH MD 0 0 0

POTMH MD 0 0 0

RPPMH VA 0 0 0

YRKPH VA 0 0 0

ELIPH VA 0 0 0

CHSMH MD 0 0 0

EASMH MD 0 0 0

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 77: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change

bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change

bull Organic nutrients are decreased

bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 78: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Calculate Climate Effect

Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 79: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna

75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P

Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction

in Susquehanna

N and P

The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 80: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressClimate Change Phase III

Planning Target

NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594

PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181

MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296

WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347

DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425

DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587

VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822

Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253

Climate Change Loads Nitrogen

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 81: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Climate Change Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506

PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073

MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604

WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456

DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130

DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120

VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073

Climate Change Loads Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 82: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the

jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)

bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts

bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)

bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 83: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed

and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)

bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts

bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones

bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones

Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change

into the Phase III WIPs

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 84: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendation

Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date

86

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 85: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How

and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair

87

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 86: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

88

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 87: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

89

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 88: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

90

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 89: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

91

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 90: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

92

bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources

bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam

bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 91: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition

1863

3217

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

TSSX

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00)

2010WIP2DE(91-00)

3

54

12

69

3

54

25

82

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

0812 11

31

08

19 21

49

00

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP

Millions

ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery

2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)

93

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 92: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Who

How

When

Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill

By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date

Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified

Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL

Assign additional load as local planning goal

94

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 93: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions

95

Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds

Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds

HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of

Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 94: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 057 050 036 032

PA 531 471 334 331

MD 012 078 197 176

WV 000 000 000 019

DC 000 000 000 000

DE 000 000 000 032

VA 000 014 154 138

Basinwide 601 612 721 728

Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 95: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

JurisdictionSusquehanna

Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins

Susquehanna + MD and VA

Entire Watershed

NY 0027 0020 0013 0012

PA 0230 0176 0109 0115

MD 0005 0070 0101 0093

WV 0000 0000 0000 0013

DC 0000 0000 0000 0001

DE 0000 0000 0000 0005

VA 0000 0000 0162 0150

Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389

Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options

Units millions of pounds

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 96: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense

and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively

98

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 97: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendations

WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions

bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy

intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight

bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate

99

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 98: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach

bull PSC to send letter to Exelon

bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan

bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification

bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies

bull Begin plan implementation

100

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 99: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Proposed Recommendations

bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the

plan on an annual basis

bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success

bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented

by 2025

bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development

101

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 100: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate

Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash

DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE

102

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 101: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Jurisdiction1985

Baseline 2013

ProgressGrowth in Load

to 2025Phase III

Planning Target

NY 1871 1544 -074 1059

PA 12241 9928 166 7318

MD 8356 5589 152 4530

WV 873 806 -002 635

DC 648 175 000 243

DE 697 659 048 459

VA 8429 6153 109 5582

Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 102: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus

Units millions of pounds

Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline

2013 Progress

Growth in Load to 2025

Phase III Planning Target

NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506

PA 6115 3696 0044 3073

MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604

WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456

DC 0090 0062 0000 0130

DE 0225 0115 0007 0120

VA 13545 6345 0140 6186

Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 103: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

Final Requested Policy Decisions

1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process

2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill

3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs

105

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053

Page 104: Chesapeake Bay Program Midpoint Assessment Overviewcrawler.dep.state.pa.us/Water/ChesapeakeBayOffice/WIPIII/... · 2017-12-27 · Midpoint Assessment Overview Phase 3 WIP Steering

DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay

Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3

Contact InformationVeronica Kasi

vbkasipagov717-772-4053


Recommended