Chesapeake Bay ProgramMidpoint Assessment Overview
Phase 3 WIP Steering Committee
December 13 2017
bull Goal for Today ndash Final Input Before PSC Meeting
bull Midpoint Assessment Statusbull Suite of Phase 6 Modelsbull Assimilative Capacity of the Chesapeake Baybull Planning Targetsbull Four Month Review Process
bull Special Cases
bull Conowingo Dambull Sector Growthbull Climate Change
bull Acknowledgement to EPA Chesapeake Bay Program Office amp Partnership
Agenda
Three Partnership Principals
bull Allocated loads must result in achievement of the statesrsquo Bay water quality standards
bull Major river basins that contribute the most to Bay water quality problems must do the most to resolve those problems
bull All tracked and reported reductions in loads are credited toward achieving assigned loads
3
Our Improved Models
4
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
5
Proposed Recommendation
Whatrsquos Changed Why and Implications
A lot has changed since 2010 and our Phase I and Phase II WIPs
bull Much improved modeling and other decision support tools
bull High resolution land cover data for entire watershed
bull Hundreds more BMPs available for crediting
bull Significant data gathered from local agricultural and municipality partners incorporated into our models and other decision support tools
6
Improved Partnership Models
bull 5 years of Partnership decision-making
bull STAC sponsored technical workshops from soil phosphorus to Conowingo
bull Independent scientific peer reviews of every Partnership model
bull Comprehensive fatal flaw review and issue resolution
7
8
Average Load + Inputs Sensitivity
Land Use Acres
BMPs
Land to Water
Stream Delivery
River Delivery
Phase 6 Watershed Model
Phase 6 Bay Watershed Model
Prior Bay Watershed Models
6
Trees
Roots Leaves
Particulate
Refractory
Organic N
Particulate
Labile
Organic N
Solution
Ammonia
Nitrate
Solution
Labile
Organic N
Adsorbed
Ammonia
Solution
Refractory
Organic N
Each submodel has a complex hydrologic or nutrient cycling structure
Atm
osp
her
ic D
eposi
tion
Den
itri
fica
tio
n
Export
Export Export ExportExport Export Export
Phase 5 30-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Phase 6 1-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Hundreds More BMPs
10
Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND
Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO
Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED
Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO
Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD
Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO
Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND
Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO
Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED
Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO
Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD
Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO
Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND
Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO
Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA
Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED
Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO
Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND
Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO
Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA
Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED
Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO
Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA
Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED
Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO
Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD
Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO
Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND
Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO
Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA
CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED
CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO
CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD
Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO
DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND
DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO
DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA
Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED
Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO
Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD
Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO
Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND
Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO
Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO
Local Agricultural and Municipality Data
bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems
bull Combined Sewer Systems
bull Sewer Service Areas
bull Land Cover
bull Land Use
bull Parcels
bull Roads
bull Beaches
bull Institutional lands
bull Federal lands
bull Golf courses
bull Surface mines
bull Landfills
bull Protected lands
bull Streams
bull Wetlands
bull Tidal zones
bull Floodplains
bull Frequently flooded soils
bull Livestock populations
bull Poultry populations
bull Crop hay and pasture acreages
bull Crop yields
bull Soil P concentrations
bull BMPs
11
Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data
bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points
bull Hundreds of monitoring stations
bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment
bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades
y=09889x
Rsup2=092566
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243
y=09754x
Rsup2=06632
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
24
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24
PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099
y=09416x
Rsup2=094272
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370
y=09863x
Rsup2=064849
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696
[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies
[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
SIMULA
TEDLOADS(lbsye
ar)
USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)
1-to-1
TOTN
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates
BASIN Sept June Phase5
SUSQ -01 -03 -01
POTO -09 -09 -22
JAME -09 -02 -07
RAPP -11 -07 -10
APPO -18 -07 -02
PAMU -08 00 06
MATT 06 07 -06
PATU 08 05 19
CHOP -01 08 -13
[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites
Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the
Watershed
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
14
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
15
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
16
Proposed Recommendation
Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants
(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science
Analysis and Implementation
17
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
bull Goal for Today ndash Final Input Before PSC Meeting
bull Midpoint Assessment Statusbull Suite of Phase 6 Modelsbull Assimilative Capacity of the Chesapeake Baybull Planning Targetsbull Four Month Review Process
bull Special Cases
bull Conowingo Dambull Sector Growthbull Climate Change
bull Acknowledgement to EPA Chesapeake Bay Program Office amp Partnership
Agenda
Three Partnership Principals
bull Allocated loads must result in achievement of the statesrsquo Bay water quality standards
bull Major river basins that contribute the most to Bay water quality problems must do the most to resolve those problems
bull All tracked and reported reductions in loads are credited toward achieving assigned loads
3
Our Improved Models
4
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
5
Proposed Recommendation
Whatrsquos Changed Why and Implications
A lot has changed since 2010 and our Phase I and Phase II WIPs
bull Much improved modeling and other decision support tools
bull High resolution land cover data for entire watershed
bull Hundreds more BMPs available for crediting
bull Significant data gathered from local agricultural and municipality partners incorporated into our models and other decision support tools
6
Improved Partnership Models
bull 5 years of Partnership decision-making
bull STAC sponsored technical workshops from soil phosphorus to Conowingo
bull Independent scientific peer reviews of every Partnership model
bull Comprehensive fatal flaw review and issue resolution
7
8
Average Load + Inputs Sensitivity
Land Use Acres
BMPs
Land to Water
Stream Delivery
River Delivery
Phase 6 Watershed Model
Phase 6 Bay Watershed Model
Prior Bay Watershed Models
6
Trees
Roots Leaves
Particulate
Refractory
Organic N
Particulate
Labile
Organic N
Solution
Ammonia
Nitrate
Solution
Labile
Organic N
Adsorbed
Ammonia
Solution
Refractory
Organic N
Each submodel has a complex hydrologic or nutrient cycling structure
Atm
osp
her
ic D
eposi
tion
Den
itri
fica
tio
n
Export
Export Export ExportExport Export Export
Phase 5 30-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Phase 6 1-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Hundreds More BMPs
10
Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND
Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO
Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED
Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO
Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD
Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO
Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND
Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO
Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED
Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO
Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD
Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO
Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND
Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO
Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA
Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED
Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO
Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND
Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO
Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA
Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED
Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO
Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA
Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED
Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO
Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD
Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO
Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND
Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO
Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA
CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED
CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO
CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD
Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO
DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND
DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO
DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA
Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED
Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO
Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD
Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO
Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND
Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO
Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO
Local Agricultural and Municipality Data
bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems
bull Combined Sewer Systems
bull Sewer Service Areas
bull Land Cover
bull Land Use
bull Parcels
bull Roads
bull Beaches
bull Institutional lands
bull Federal lands
bull Golf courses
bull Surface mines
bull Landfills
bull Protected lands
bull Streams
bull Wetlands
bull Tidal zones
bull Floodplains
bull Frequently flooded soils
bull Livestock populations
bull Poultry populations
bull Crop hay and pasture acreages
bull Crop yields
bull Soil P concentrations
bull BMPs
11
Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data
bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points
bull Hundreds of monitoring stations
bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment
bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades
y=09889x
Rsup2=092566
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243
y=09754x
Rsup2=06632
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
24
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24
PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099
y=09416x
Rsup2=094272
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370
y=09863x
Rsup2=064849
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696
[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies
[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
SIMULA
TEDLOADS(lbsye
ar)
USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)
1-to-1
TOTN
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates
BASIN Sept June Phase5
SUSQ -01 -03 -01
POTO -09 -09 -22
JAME -09 -02 -07
RAPP -11 -07 -10
APPO -18 -07 -02
PAMU -08 00 06
MATT 06 07 -06
PATU 08 05 19
CHOP -01 08 -13
[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites
Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the
Watershed
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
14
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
15
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
16
Proposed Recommendation
Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants
(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science
Analysis and Implementation
17
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Three Partnership Principals
bull Allocated loads must result in achievement of the statesrsquo Bay water quality standards
bull Major river basins that contribute the most to Bay water quality problems must do the most to resolve those problems
bull All tracked and reported reductions in loads are credited toward achieving assigned loads
3
Our Improved Models
4
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
5
Proposed Recommendation
Whatrsquos Changed Why and Implications
A lot has changed since 2010 and our Phase I and Phase II WIPs
bull Much improved modeling and other decision support tools
bull High resolution land cover data for entire watershed
bull Hundreds more BMPs available for crediting
bull Significant data gathered from local agricultural and municipality partners incorporated into our models and other decision support tools
6
Improved Partnership Models
bull 5 years of Partnership decision-making
bull STAC sponsored technical workshops from soil phosphorus to Conowingo
bull Independent scientific peer reviews of every Partnership model
bull Comprehensive fatal flaw review and issue resolution
7
8
Average Load + Inputs Sensitivity
Land Use Acres
BMPs
Land to Water
Stream Delivery
River Delivery
Phase 6 Watershed Model
Phase 6 Bay Watershed Model
Prior Bay Watershed Models
6
Trees
Roots Leaves
Particulate
Refractory
Organic N
Particulate
Labile
Organic N
Solution
Ammonia
Nitrate
Solution
Labile
Organic N
Adsorbed
Ammonia
Solution
Refractory
Organic N
Each submodel has a complex hydrologic or nutrient cycling structure
Atm
osp
her
ic D
eposi
tion
Den
itri
fica
tio
n
Export
Export Export ExportExport Export Export
Phase 5 30-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Phase 6 1-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Hundreds More BMPs
10
Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND
Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO
Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED
Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO
Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD
Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO
Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND
Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO
Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED
Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO
Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD
Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO
Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND
Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO
Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA
Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED
Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO
Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND
Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO
Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA
Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED
Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO
Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA
Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED
Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO
Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD
Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO
Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND
Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO
Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA
CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED
CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO
CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD
Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO
DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND
DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO
DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA
Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED
Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO
Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD
Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO
Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND
Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO
Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO
Local Agricultural and Municipality Data
bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems
bull Combined Sewer Systems
bull Sewer Service Areas
bull Land Cover
bull Land Use
bull Parcels
bull Roads
bull Beaches
bull Institutional lands
bull Federal lands
bull Golf courses
bull Surface mines
bull Landfills
bull Protected lands
bull Streams
bull Wetlands
bull Tidal zones
bull Floodplains
bull Frequently flooded soils
bull Livestock populations
bull Poultry populations
bull Crop hay and pasture acreages
bull Crop yields
bull Soil P concentrations
bull BMPs
11
Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data
bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points
bull Hundreds of monitoring stations
bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment
bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades
y=09889x
Rsup2=092566
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243
y=09754x
Rsup2=06632
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
24
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24
PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099
y=09416x
Rsup2=094272
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370
y=09863x
Rsup2=064849
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696
[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies
[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
SIMULA
TEDLOADS(lbsye
ar)
USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)
1-to-1
TOTN
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates
BASIN Sept June Phase5
SUSQ -01 -03 -01
POTO -09 -09 -22
JAME -09 -02 -07
RAPP -11 -07 -10
APPO -18 -07 -02
PAMU -08 00 06
MATT 06 07 -06
PATU 08 05 19
CHOP -01 08 -13
[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites
Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the
Watershed
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
14
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
15
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
16
Proposed Recommendation
Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants
(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science
Analysis and Implementation
17
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Our Improved Models
4
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
5
Proposed Recommendation
Whatrsquos Changed Why and Implications
A lot has changed since 2010 and our Phase I and Phase II WIPs
bull Much improved modeling and other decision support tools
bull High resolution land cover data for entire watershed
bull Hundreds more BMPs available for crediting
bull Significant data gathered from local agricultural and municipality partners incorporated into our models and other decision support tools
6
Improved Partnership Models
bull 5 years of Partnership decision-making
bull STAC sponsored technical workshops from soil phosphorus to Conowingo
bull Independent scientific peer reviews of every Partnership model
bull Comprehensive fatal flaw review and issue resolution
7
8
Average Load + Inputs Sensitivity
Land Use Acres
BMPs
Land to Water
Stream Delivery
River Delivery
Phase 6 Watershed Model
Phase 6 Bay Watershed Model
Prior Bay Watershed Models
6
Trees
Roots Leaves
Particulate
Refractory
Organic N
Particulate
Labile
Organic N
Solution
Ammonia
Nitrate
Solution
Labile
Organic N
Adsorbed
Ammonia
Solution
Refractory
Organic N
Each submodel has a complex hydrologic or nutrient cycling structure
Atm
osp
her
ic D
eposi
tion
Den
itri
fica
tio
n
Export
Export Export ExportExport Export Export
Phase 5 30-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Phase 6 1-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Hundreds More BMPs
10
Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND
Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO
Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED
Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO
Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD
Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO
Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND
Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO
Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED
Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO
Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD
Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO
Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND
Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO
Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA
Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED
Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO
Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND
Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO
Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA
Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED
Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO
Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA
Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED
Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO
Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD
Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO
Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND
Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO
Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA
CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED
CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO
CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD
Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO
DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND
DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO
DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA
Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED
Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO
Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD
Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO
Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND
Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO
Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO
Local Agricultural and Municipality Data
bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems
bull Combined Sewer Systems
bull Sewer Service Areas
bull Land Cover
bull Land Use
bull Parcels
bull Roads
bull Beaches
bull Institutional lands
bull Federal lands
bull Golf courses
bull Surface mines
bull Landfills
bull Protected lands
bull Streams
bull Wetlands
bull Tidal zones
bull Floodplains
bull Frequently flooded soils
bull Livestock populations
bull Poultry populations
bull Crop hay and pasture acreages
bull Crop yields
bull Soil P concentrations
bull BMPs
11
Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data
bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points
bull Hundreds of monitoring stations
bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment
bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades
y=09889x
Rsup2=092566
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243
y=09754x
Rsup2=06632
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
24
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24
PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099
y=09416x
Rsup2=094272
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370
y=09863x
Rsup2=064849
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696
[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies
[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
SIMULA
TEDLOADS(lbsye
ar)
USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)
1-to-1
TOTN
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates
BASIN Sept June Phase5
SUSQ -01 -03 -01
POTO -09 -09 -22
JAME -09 -02 -07
RAPP -11 -07 -10
APPO -18 -07 -02
PAMU -08 00 06
MATT 06 07 -06
PATU 08 05 19
CHOP -01 08 -13
[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites
Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the
Watershed
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
14
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
15
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
16
Proposed Recommendation
Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants
(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science
Analysis and Implementation
17
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
5
Proposed Recommendation
Whatrsquos Changed Why and Implications
A lot has changed since 2010 and our Phase I and Phase II WIPs
bull Much improved modeling and other decision support tools
bull High resolution land cover data for entire watershed
bull Hundreds more BMPs available for crediting
bull Significant data gathered from local agricultural and municipality partners incorporated into our models and other decision support tools
6
Improved Partnership Models
bull 5 years of Partnership decision-making
bull STAC sponsored technical workshops from soil phosphorus to Conowingo
bull Independent scientific peer reviews of every Partnership model
bull Comprehensive fatal flaw review and issue resolution
7
8
Average Load + Inputs Sensitivity
Land Use Acres
BMPs
Land to Water
Stream Delivery
River Delivery
Phase 6 Watershed Model
Phase 6 Bay Watershed Model
Prior Bay Watershed Models
6
Trees
Roots Leaves
Particulate
Refractory
Organic N
Particulate
Labile
Organic N
Solution
Ammonia
Nitrate
Solution
Labile
Organic N
Adsorbed
Ammonia
Solution
Refractory
Organic N
Each submodel has a complex hydrologic or nutrient cycling structure
Atm
osp
her
ic D
eposi
tion
Den
itri
fica
tio
n
Export
Export Export ExportExport Export Export
Phase 5 30-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Phase 6 1-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Hundreds More BMPs
10
Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND
Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO
Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED
Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO
Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD
Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO
Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND
Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO
Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED
Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO
Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD
Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO
Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND
Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO
Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA
Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED
Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO
Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND
Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO
Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA
Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED
Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO
Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA
Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED
Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO
Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD
Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO
Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND
Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO
Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA
CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED
CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO
CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD
Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO
DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND
DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO
DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA
Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED
Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO
Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD
Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO
Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND
Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO
Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO
Local Agricultural and Municipality Data
bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems
bull Combined Sewer Systems
bull Sewer Service Areas
bull Land Cover
bull Land Use
bull Parcels
bull Roads
bull Beaches
bull Institutional lands
bull Federal lands
bull Golf courses
bull Surface mines
bull Landfills
bull Protected lands
bull Streams
bull Wetlands
bull Tidal zones
bull Floodplains
bull Frequently flooded soils
bull Livestock populations
bull Poultry populations
bull Crop hay and pasture acreages
bull Crop yields
bull Soil P concentrations
bull BMPs
11
Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data
bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points
bull Hundreds of monitoring stations
bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment
bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades
y=09889x
Rsup2=092566
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243
y=09754x
Rsup2=06632
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
24
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24
PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099
y=09416x
Rsup2=094272
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370
y=09863x
Rsup2=064849
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696
[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies
[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
SIMULA
TEDLOADS(lbsye
ar)
USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)
1-to-1
TOTN
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates
BASIN Sept June Phase5
SUSQ -01 -03 -01
POTO -09 -09 -22
JAME -09 -02 -07
RAPP -11 -07 -10
APPO -18 -07 -02
PAMU -08 00 06
MATT 06 07 -06
PATU 08 05 19
CHOP -01 08 -13
[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites
Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the
Watershed
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
14
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
15
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
16
Proposed Recommendation
Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants
(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science
Analysis and Implementation
17
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Whatrsquos Changed Why and Implications
A lot has changed since 2010 and our Phase I and Phase II WIPs
bull Much improved modeling and other decision support tools
bull High resolution land cover data for entire watershed
bull Hundreds more BMPs available for crediting
bull Significant data gathered from local agricultural and municipality partners incorporated into our models and other decision support tools
6
Improved Partnership Models
bull 5 years of Partnership decision-making
bull STAC sponsored technical workshops from soil phosphorus to Conowingo
bull Independent scientific peer reviews of every Partnership model
bull Comprehensive fatal flaw review and issue resolution
7
8
Average Load + Inputs Sensitivity
Land Use Acres
BMPs
Land to Water
Stream Delivery
River Delivery
Phase 6 Watershed Model
Phase 6 Bay Watershed Model
Prior Bay Watershed Models
6
Trees
Roots Leaves
Particulate
Refractory
Organic N
Particulate
Labile
Organic N
Solution
Ammonia
Nitrate
Solution
Labile
Organic N
Adsorbed
Ammonia
Solution
Refractory
Organic N
Each submodel has a complex hydrologic or nutrient cycling structure
Atm
osp
her
ic D
eposi
tion
Den
itri
fica
tio
n
Export
Export Export ExportExport Export Export
Phase 5 30-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Phase 6 1-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Hundreds More BMPs
10
Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND
Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO
Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED
Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO
Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD
Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO
Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND
Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO
Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED
Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO
Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD
Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO
Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND
Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO
Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA
Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED
Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO
Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND
Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO
Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA
Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED
Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO
Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA
Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED
Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO
Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD
Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO
Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND
Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO
Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA
CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED
CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO
CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD
Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO
DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND
DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO
DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA
Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED
Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO
Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD
Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO
Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND
Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO
Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO
Local Agricultural and Municipality Data
bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems
bull Combined Sewer Systems
bull Sewer Service Areas
bull Land Cover
bull Land Use
bull Parcels
bull Roads
bull Beaches
bull Institutional lands
bull Federal lands
bull Golf courses
bull Surface mines
bull Landfills
bull Protected lands
bull Streams
bull Wetlands
bull Tidal zones
bull Floodplains
bull Frequently flooded soils
bull Livestock populations
bull Poultry populations
bull Crop hay and pasture acreages
bull Crop yields
bull Soil P concentrations
bull BMPs
11
Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data
bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points
bull Hundreds of monitoring stations
bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment
bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades
y=09889x
Rsup2=092566
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243
y=09754x
Rsup2=06632
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
24
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24
PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099
y=09416x
Rsup2=094272
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370
y=09863x
Rsup2=064849
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696
[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies
[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
SIMULA
TEDLOADS(lbsye
ar)
USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)
1-to-1
TOTN
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates
BASIN Sept June Phase5
SUSQ -01 -03 -01
POTO -09 -09 -22
JAME -09 -02 -07
RAPP -11 -07 -10
APPO -18 -07 -02
PAMU -08 00 06
MATT 06 07 -06
PATU 08 05 19
CHOP -01 08 -13
[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites
Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the
Watershed
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
14
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
15
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
16
Proposed Recommendation
Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants
(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science
Analysis and Implementation
17
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Improved Partnership Models
bull 5 years of Partnership decision-making
bull STAC sponsored technical workshops from soil phosphorus to Conowingo
bull Independent scientific peer reviews of every Partnership model
bull Comprehensive fatal flaw review and issue resolution
7
8
Average Load + Inputs Sensitivity
Land Use Acres
BMPs
Land to Water
Stream Delivery
River Delivery
Phase 6 Watershed Model
Phase 6 Bay Watershed Model
Prior Bay Watershed Models
6
Trees
Roots Leaves
Particulate
Refractory
Organic N
Particulate
Labile
Organic N
Solution
Ammonia
Nitrate
Solution
Labile
Organic N
Adsorbed
Ammonia
Solution
Refractory
Organic N
Each submodel has a complex hydrologic or nutrient cycling structure
Atm
osp
her
ic D
eposi
tion
Den
itri
fica
tio
n
Export
Export Export ExportExport Export Export
Phase 5 30-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Phase 6 1-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Hundreds More BMPs
10
Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND
Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO
Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED
Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO
Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD
Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO
Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND
Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO
Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED
Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO
Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD
Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO
Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND
Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO
Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA
Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED
Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO
Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND
Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO
Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA
Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED
Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO
Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA
Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED
Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO
Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD
Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO
Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND
Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO
Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA
CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED
CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO
CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD
Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO
DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND
DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO
DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA
Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED
Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO
Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD
Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO
Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND
Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO
Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO
Local Agricultural and Municipality Data
bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems
bull Combined Sewer Systems
bull Sewer Service Areas
bull Land Cover
bull Land Use
bull Parcels
bull Roads
bull Beaches
bull Institutional lands
bull Federal lands
bull Golf courses
bull Surface mines
bull Landfills
bull Protected lands
bull Streams
bull Wetlands
bull Tidal zones
bull Floodplains
bull Frequently flooded soils
bull Livestock populations
bull Poultry populations
bull Crop hay and pasture acreages
bull Crop yields
bull Soil P concentrations
bull BMPs
11
Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data
bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points
bull Hundreds of monitoring stations
bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment
bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades
y=09889x
Rsup2=092566
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243
y=09754x
Rsup2=06632
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
24
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24
PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099
y=09416x
Rsup2=094272
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370
y=09863x
Rsup2=064849
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696
[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies
[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
SIMULA
TEDLOADS(lbsye
ar)
USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)
1-to-1
TOTN
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates
BASIN Sept June Phase5
SUSQ -01 -03 -01
POTO -09 -09 -22
JAME -09 -02 -07
RAPP -11 -07 -10
APPO -18 -07 -02
PAMU -08 00 06
MATT 06 07 -06
PATU 08 05 19
CHOP -01 08 -13
[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites
Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the
Watershed
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
14
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
15
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
16
Proposed Recommendation
Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants
(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science
Analysis and Implementation
17
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
8
Average Load + Inputs Sensitivity
Land Use Acres
BMPs
Land to Water
Stream Delivery
River Delivery
Phase 6 Watershed Model
Phase 6 Bay Watershed Model
Prior Bay Watershed Models
6
Trees
Roots Leaves
Particulate
Refractory
Organic N
Particulate
Labile
Organic N
Solution
Ammonia
Nitrate
Solution
Labile
Organic N
Adsorbed
Ammonia
Solution
Refractory
Organic N
Each submodel has a complex hydrologic or nutrient cycling structure
Atm
osp
her
ic D
eposi
tion
Den
itri
fica
tio
n
Export
Export Export ExportExport Export Export
Phase 5 30-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Phase 6 1-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Hundreds More BMPs
10
Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND
Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO
Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED
Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO
Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD
Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO
Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND
Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO
Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED
Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO
Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD
Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO
Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND
Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO
Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA
Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED
Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO
Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND
Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO
Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA
Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED
Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO
Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA
Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED
Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO
Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD
Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO
Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND
Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO
Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA
CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED
CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO
CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD
Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO
DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND
DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO
DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA
Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED
Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO
Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD
Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO
Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND
Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO
Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO
Local Agricultural and Municipality Data
bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems
bull Combined Sewer Systems
bull Sewer Service Areas
bull Land Cover
bull Land Use
bull Parcels
bull Roads
bull Beaches
bull Institutional lands
bull Federal lands
bull Golf courses
bull Surface mines
bull Landfills
bull Protected lands
bull Streams
bull Wetlands
bull Tidal zones
bull Floodplains
bull Frequently flooded soils
bull Livestock populations
bull Poultry populations
bull Crop hay and pasture acreages
bull Crop yields
bull Soil P concentrations
bull BMPs
11
Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data
bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points
bull Hundreds of monitoring stations
bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment
bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades
y=09889x
Rsup2=092566
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243
y=09754x
Rsup2=06632
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
24
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24
PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099
y=09416x
Rsup2=094272
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370
y=09863x
Rsup2=064849
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696
[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies
[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
SIMULA
TEDLOADS(lbsye
ar)
USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)
1-to-1
TOTN
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates
BASIN Sept June Phase5
SUSQ -01 -03 -01
POTO -09 -09 -22
JAME -09 -02 -07
RAPP -11 -07 -10
APPO -18 -07 -02
PAMU -08 00 06
MATT 06 07 -06
PATU 08 05 19
CHOP -01 08 -13
[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites
Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the
Watershed
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
14
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
15
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
16
Proposed Recommendation
Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants
(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science
Analysis and Implementation
17
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Phase 5 30-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Phase 6 1-Meter
Resolution Land
UseLand Cover Data
Hundreds More BMPs
10
Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND
Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO
Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED
Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO
Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD
Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO
Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND
Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO
Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED
Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO
Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD
Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO
Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND
Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO
Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA
Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED
Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO
Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND
Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO
Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA
Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED
Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO
Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA
Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED
Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO
Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD
Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO
Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND
Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO
Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA
CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED
CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO
CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD
Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO
DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND
DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO
DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA
Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED
Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO
Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD
Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO
Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND
Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO
Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO
Local Agricultural and Municipality Data
bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems
bull Combined Sewer Systems
bull Sewer Service Areas
bull Land Cover
bull Land Use
bull Parcels
bull Roads
bull Beaches
bull Institutional lands
bull Federal lands
bull Golf courses
bull Surface mines
bull Landfills
bull Protected lands
bull Streams
bull Wetlands
bull Tidal zones
bull Floodplains
bull Frequently flooded soils
bull Livestock populations
bull Poultry populations
bull Crop hay and pasture acreages
bull Crop yields
bull Soil P concentrations
bull BMPs
11
Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data
bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points
bull Hundreds of monitoring stations
bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment
bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades
y=09889x
Rsup2=092566
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243
y=09754x
Rsup2=06632
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
24
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24
PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099
y=09416x
Rsup2=094272
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370
y=09863x
Rsup2=064849
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696
[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies
[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
SIMULA
TEDLOADS(lbsye
ar)
USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)
1-to-1
TOTN
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates
BASIN Sept June Phase5
SUSQ -01 -03 -01
POTO -09 -09 -22
JAME -09 -02 -07
RAPP -11 -07 -10
APPO -18 -07 -02
PAMU -08 00 06
MATT 06 07 -06
PATU 08 05 19
CHOP -01 08 -13
[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites
Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the
Watershed
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
14
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
15
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
16
Proposed Recommendation
Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants
(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science
Analysis and Implementation
17
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Hundreds More BMPs
10
Advanced Grey Infrastructure Nutrient Discovery Program Dry Waste Storage Structure RI Headw ater Wetland Gains - Reestablished Nutrient Management P Placement Stream Restoration Urban Waste Treatment - Dairy Cover Crop Traditional - FED Cover Crop Traditional - NutRND
Ag Shoreline Management Dry Well Headw ater Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management P Rate Streambank and Shoreline Protection Waste Treatment - Horse Cover Crop Traditional - FEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRNO
Ag Shoreline Non-Vegetated Erosion amp Sediment Control High Residue Tillage Management Nutrient Management P Timing Streambank Restoration Waste Treatment - Layer Cover Crop Traditional - FPEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTED
Ag Shoreline Vegetated Erosion and Sediment Control Level 1 Horse Pasture Management Pasture and Hay Planting Streambank Stabilization Waste Treatment - Other Cattle Cover Crop Traditional - FPED Cover Crop Traditional - NutTEO
Alternative CropSw itchgrass RI Erosion and Sediment Control Level 2 Hydrodynamic Structures Permanent w ildlife habitat non-easement Street Cleaning Practice 1 Waste Treatment - Poultry Cover Crop Traditional - FPEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLD
Alternative Crops Erosion and Sediment Control Level 3 IFAS Permeable Pavement - NoSVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 2 Waste Treatment - Pullet Cover Crop Traditional - FPND Cover Crop Traditional - NutTLO
Alternative Water System Establishment of permanent introduced grasses and legumes IFAS Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 3 Waste Treatment - Sw ine Cover Crop Traditional - FPNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutTND
Amendments for the Treatment of Agricultural Waste Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer IFAS Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - NoSVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 4 Waste Treatment - Turkey Cover Crop Traditional - LEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutTNO
Animal Compost Structure RI Exclusion Fence w ith Forest Buffer RI IMF Permeable Pavement - SVNoUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 5 Waste Treatment Lagoon Cover Crop Traditional - LED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWED
Animal Mortality Facility Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer IMF Elevated Mound Permeable Pavement - SVUDAB Street Cleaning Practice 6 Wastew ater Treatment Strip Cover Crop Traditional - LEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWEO
Animal Trails and Walkw ays Exclusion Fence w ith Grass Buffer RI IMF Shallow Pressure Permeable Pavement - SVUDCD Street Cleaning Practice 7 Water Control Structure Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLD
Animal Waste Management Systems (All Types) Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer Impervious Disconnection Prescribed Grazing Street Cleaning Practice 8 Water Control Structure RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHED Cover Crop Traditional - NutWLO
Barnyard Clean Water Diversion RI Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Forest Buffer RI Infiltration Basin Proprietary Ex Situ Street Cleaning Practice 9 Watering Facility Cover Crop Traditional - LGHEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutWND
Barnyard Runoff Controls Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer Infiltration Practices Proprietary Ex Situ Elevated Mound Street Cleaning Practice 10 Watering Trough RI Cover Crop Traditional - LGHND Cover Crop Traditional - NutWNO
Biofiltration Exclusion Fence w ith Narrow Grass Buffer RI Infiltration Trench Proprietary Ex Situ Shallow Pressure Street Cleaning Practice 11 Wet Extended Detention Cover Crop Traditional - LGHNO Cover Crop Traditional - OHEA
Bioretention - AB soils no underdrain Extension of CREP Watering System Land Reclamation Abandoned Mined Land Rain Garden Street Sw eeping Wet Pond Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEA Cover Crop Traditional - OHED
Bioretention - CD soils underdrain Feed Management Land Retirement to Mixed Open Reduced Tillage Structure for Water Control Wet Ponds amp Wetlands Cover Crop Traditional - LGLED Cover Crop Traditional - OHEO
Biosw ale Field Border Land Retirement to Pasture Reduction of Impervious Surface Surface Sand Filter Wet Sw ale Cover Crop Traditional - LGLEO Cover Crop Traditional - OHND
Channel Bed Stabilization Filter Strip Loafing Lot Management System Reforestation of Erodible Crop and Pastureland Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Wetland Creation Cover Crop Traditional - LGLND Cover Crop Traditional - OHNO
Cisterns amp Rain Barrels Filtering Practices Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Regenerative Stormw ater Conveyance Tree Planting Wetland Functional Gains - Enhanced Cover Crop Traditional - LGLNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEA
Composter Facilities Filtration Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Immediate Retirement of Highly Erodible Land TreeShrub Establishment Wetland Gains - Established Cover Crop Traditional - LND Cover Crop Traditional - OKED
Conservation Cover Floating Treatment Wetland 1 Manure Incorporation High Disturbance Late Retrofit Runoff Reduction Underground Infiltration System Wetland Gains - Reestablished Cover Crop Traditional - LNO Cover Crop Traditional - OKEO
Conservation Plans Floating Treatment Wetland 2 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Retrofit Stormw ater Treatment Urban Filter Strip Runoff Reduction Wetland Rehabilitation Cover Crop Traditional - NutARED Cover Crop Traditional - REA
Conservation Tillage Floating Treatment Wetland 3 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Immediate Ridge Tillage Urban Filter Strip Storw ater Treatment Wetland Restoration Cover Crop Traditional - NutAREO Cover Crop Traditional - RED
Constructed Wetland Floating Treatment Wetland 4 Manure Incorporation Low Disturbance Late Riparian Forest Buffer Urban Forest Buffer WindbreakShelterbelt Establishment Cover Crop Traditional - NutARND Cover Crop Traditional - REO
Constructed Wetland Elevated Mound Floating Treatment Wetland 5 Manure Injection Riparian Herbaceous Cover Urban Forest Planting Woodland Buffer Filter Area Cover Crop Traditional - NutARNO Cover Crop Traditional - RLD
Constructed Wetland Septic Forest Buffer on Watercourse RI Manure Transport RMF Urban Infiltration Practices Commodity Cover Crop - Early Cover Crop Traditional - NutBED Cover Crop Traditional - RLO
Constructed Wetland Shallow Pressure Forest Buffers Monitored Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Elevated Mound Urban Nutrient Management Plan Commodity Cover Crop - Standard Cover Crop Traditional - NutBEO Cover Crop Traditional - RND
Conversion to Hayland RI Forest Conservation Monitored Tidal Algal Flow -w ay RMF Shallow Pressure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDCA Cover Crops Cover Crop Traditional - NutBND Cover Crop Traditional - RNO
Conversion to Pasture RI Forest Harvesting Practices Mulch Tillage Roof runoff management Urban Nutrient Management Plan - MDDIY CoverCropComLate Cover Crop Traditional - NutBNO Cover Crop Traditional - TEA
CREP Riparian Forest Buffer Forest Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI Narrow Forest Buffers Roof Runoff Structure Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanHR Cover Crop Traditional - AREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutBRED Cover Crop Traditional - TED
CREP Wetland Restoration Forest Stand Improvement Narrow Urban Forest Buffer Rotational Grazing RI Urban Nutrient Management Plan - PlanLR Cover Crop Traditional - ARED Cover Crop Traditional - NutBREO Cover Crop Traditional - TEO
CREP Wildlife Habitat Grass Buffer on Watercourse RI New Runoff Reduction SCWQP Urban Shoreline Management Cover Crop Traditional - AREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPED Cover Crop Traditional - TLD
Critical Area Planting Grass Buffer Strip New Stormw ater Treatment Septic Connections Urban Shoreline Non-Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARND Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPEO Cover Crop Traditional - TLO
DampG Road - EampS Control and Outlets Grass Buffers No Tillage Septic Denitrif ication Urban Shoreline Vegetated Cover Crop Traditional - ARNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPND Cover Crop Traditional - TND
DampG Road - Outlets Only Grass Filter Strips Non-Tidal Algal Flow -w ay Septic Eff luent Elevated Mound Urban stream restoration Cover Crop Traditional - BEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutFPNO Cover Crop Traditional - TNO
DampG Road - Surface Aggragate and Rasied Roadbed Grass Nutrient Exclusion Area on Watercourse Narrow RI NSF 40 Septic Eff luent Shallow Pressure Vegetated Open Channels Cover Crop Traditional - BED Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHED Cover Crop Traditional - WEA
Dead Bird Composting Facility Grassed Waterw ay NSF 40 Elevated Mound Septic Tank Advanced Treatment Vegetated Treatment Area Cover Crop Traditional - BEO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHEO Cover Crop Traditional - WED
Default - Bioretention - AB soils underdrain Grazing Land Protection NSF 40 Shallow Pressure Septic Tank Pumpout Waste Control Facilities Cover Crop Traditional - BND Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHND Cover Crop Traditional - WEO
Disconnection of Rooftop Runoff Green Roofs Nutrient Management Core N SolidLiquid Waste Separation Facility Waste Storage Facility Cover Crop Traditional - BNO Cover Crop Traditional - NutOHNO Cover Crop Traditional - WLD
Dry Detention Ponds Hardw ood tree planting Nutrient Management Core P Storm Drain Cleaning Waste Storage Pond Cover Crop Traditional - BREA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRED Cover Crop Traditional - WLO
Dry Detention Ponds amp Hydrodynamic Structures Headw ater CREP Wetland Restoration Nutrient Management N Placement Stream Channel Stabilization Waste Storage Structure Cover Crop Traditional - BRED Cover Crop Traditional - NutREO Cover Crop Traditional - WND
Dry Extended Detention Ponds Headw ater Wetland Creation Nutrient Management N Rate Stream Improvement for Fish Habitat Waste Treatment - Beef Cover Crop Traditional - BREO Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLD Cover Crop Traditional - WNO
Dry Sw ale Headw ater Wetland Gains - Established Nutrient Management N Timing Stream Restoration Ag Waste Treatment - Broiler Cover Crop Traditional - FEA Cover Crop Traditional - NutRLO
Local Agricultural and Municipality Data
bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems
bull Combined Sewer Systems
bull Sewer Service Areas
bull Land Cover
bull Land Use
bull Parcels
bull Roads
bull Beaches
bull Institutional lands
bull Federal lands
bull Golf courses
bull Surface mines
bull Landfills
bull Protected lands
bull Streams
bull Wetlands
bull Tidal zones
bull Floodplains
bull Frequently flooded soils
bull Livestock populations
bull Poultry populations
bull Crop hay and pasture acreages
bull Crop yields
bull Soil P concentrations
bull BMPs
11
Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data
bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points
bull Hundreds of monitoring stations
bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment
bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades
y=09889x
Rsup2=092566
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243
y=09754x
Rsup2=06632
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
24
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24
PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099
y=09416x
Rsup2=094272
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370
y=09863x
Rsup2=064849
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696
[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies
[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
SIMULA
TEDLOADS(lbsye
ar)
USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)
1-to-1
TOTN
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates
BASIN Sept June Phase5
SUSQ -01 -03 -01
POTO -09 -09 -22
JAME -09 -02 -07
RAPP -11 -07 -10
APPO -18 -07 -02
PAMU -08 00 06
MATT 06 07 -06
PATU 08 05 19
CHOP -01 08 -13
[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites
Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the
Watershed
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
14
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
15
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
16
Proposed Recommendation
Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants
(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science
Analysis and Implementation
17
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Local Agricultural and Municipality Data
bull Municipal Separate Storm Sewer Systems
bull Combined Sewer Systems
bull Sewer Service Areas
bull Land Cover
bull Land Use
bull Parcels
bull Roads
bull Beaches
bull Institutional lands
bull Federal lands
bull Golf courses
bull Surface mines
bull Landfills
bull Protected lands
bull Streams
bull Wetlands
bull Tidal zones
bull Floodplains
bull Frequently flooded soils
bull Livestock populations
bull Poultry populations
bull Crop hay and pasture acreages
bull Crop yields
bull Soil P concentrations
bull BMPs
11
Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data
bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points
bull Hundreds of monitoring stations
bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment
bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades
y=09889x
Rsup2=092566
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243
y=09754x
Rsup2=06632
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
24
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24
PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099
y=09416x
Rsup2=094272
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370
y=09863x
Rsup2=064849
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696
[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies
[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
SIMULA
TEDLOADS(lbsye
ar)
USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)
1-to-1
TOTN
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates
BASIN Sept June Phase5
SUSQ -01 -03 -01
POTO -09 -09 -22
JAME -09 -02 -07
RAPP -11 -07 -10
APPO -18 -07 -02
PAMU -08 00 06
MATT 06 07 -06
PATU 08 05 19
CHOP -01 08 -13
[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites
Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the
Watershed
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
14
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
15
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
16
Proposed Recommendation
Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants
(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science
Analysis and Implementation
17
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Our Models are Tested using Decades of Monitoring Data
bull Hundreds of thousands of water quality monitoring data points
bull Hundreds of monitoring stations
bull Nitrogen phosphorus and sediment
bull Data records lasting up to 3 decades
y=09889x
Rsup2=092566
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243
y=09754x
Rsup2=06632
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
24
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24
PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099
y=09416x
Rsup2=094272
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370
y=09863x
Rsup2=064849
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696
[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies
[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
SIMULA
TEDLOADS(lbsye
ar)
USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)
1-to-1
TOTN
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates
BASIN Sept June Phase5
SUSQ -01 -03 -01
POTO -09 -09 -22
JAME -09 -02 -07
RAPP -11 -07 -10
APPO -18 -07 -02
PAMU -08 00 06
MATT 06 07 -06
PATU 08 05 19
CHOP -01 08 -13
[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites
Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the
Watershed
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
14
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
15
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
16
Proposed Recommendation
Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants
(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science
Analysis and Implementation
17
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
y=09889x
Rsup2=092566
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitratePerAcreLoadNSE=09243
y=09754x
Rsup2=06632
00
03
06
09
12
15
18
21
24
00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 24
PhosphorusPerAcreLoadNSE=06099
y=09416x
Rsup2=094272
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
NitrogenPerAcreLoadNSE=09370
y=09863x
Rsup2=064849
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
16
00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
SedimentPerAcreLoadNSE=05696
[1] Model calibration is made to improve agreement with monitoring data [2] Simulated vs WRTDS Per Acre Load and the Geographic Efficiencies
[3] Simulated vs WRTDS loads
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
SIMULA
TEDLOADS(lbsye
ar)
USGS- WRTDSLOADS(lbsyear)
1-to-1
TOTN
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
1E31E41E51E61E71E81E9
assuming+- 10uncertaintyinWRTDSestimates
BASIN Sept June Phase5
SUSQ -01 -03 -01
POTO -09 -09 -22
JAME -09 -02 -07
RAPP -11 -07 -10
APPO -18 -07 -02
PAMU -08 00 06
MATT 06 07 -06
PATU 08 05 19
CHOP -01 08 -13
[4] Agreement between the simulated and WRTDS loads at the RIM sites
Extensive Testing of the Models Throughout the
Watershed
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
14
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
15
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
16
Proposed Recommendation
Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants
(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science
Analysis and Implementation
17
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
14
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Annual WRTDS Loads
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
15
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
16
Proposed Recommendation
Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants
(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science
Analysis and Implementation
17
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Best Match with Monitoring Data Ever
15
NSE of monthly phosphorus load
NSE of annual phosphorus loads
= 0942
= 0935
Conowingo Phase 6 Simulation Compared to Monthly WRTDS Loads
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
16
Proposed Recommendation
Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants
(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science
Analysis and Implementation
17
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Adoption of the Partnershiprsquos Phase 6 suite of modeling tools for management application in the development and implementation of each jurisdictionrsquos Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones through 2025
16
Proposed Recommendation
Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants
(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science
Analysis and Implementation
17
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Determining the Bayrsquos Ability to Absorb Pollutants
(Assimilative Capacity)Dave Montali WV CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
andRich Batiuk US EPA CBPO Associate Director for Science
Analysis and Implementation
17
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
18
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
What Hasnrsquot Changed
19
Delaware District of Columbia Maryland and Virginiarsquos Chesapeake Bay water quality standards regulations have not changed since 2012
bull Five tidal habitat-based designated uses
bull Dissolved oxygen SAV water clarity and chlorophyll a criteriato protect those uses
bull Fully consistent criteria attainment assessment procedures
bull How we use model output to assess criteria attainment under model-simulated load conditions
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Herersquos Where We Want to Get to
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Diminishing Return for Additional Reductions
Scoping Scenarios to explore water quality attainment at loads around 195N and 137P
+10M lbs TN
+19M lbs TN
- 9M lbs TN
-21M lbs TN
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Rationale for Pollutant Loads Bay Can Absorb
bull Clear monitoring-based evidence of reductions on volumes of lowno oxygen in deeper waters observed in Bay and tidal tributaries
bull At 195 million lbs nitrogen and 137 million lbs phosphorus we reachbull Loading levels where all segmentsrsquo designated uses except CB4 deep-
channel come into attainment
bull Point of diminishing returns for the increased level of reductions approaching E3
22
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendation
Recommends establishing the Bayrsquos assimilative capacity as 195 million pounds of nitrogen and 137 million pounds of phosphorus
Recommends supporting necessary adjustments to Marylands water quality standards regulationsrsquo restoration variances (subject to EPA approval) in order to meet the assimilative capacity for nitrogen and phosphorus
Recommends the development of Partnership communication messages for the public over the next four months in time for the release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets in May 2018
23
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets
Gary Shenk USGS CBP Phase 6 Watershed Model Coordinator
24
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
25
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
No Action
E3
Controllable Load
Defining the Controllable Load
26
No Action bull Watershed conditions with minimal to
no controls on load bull Wastewater at primary treatment
E3 or ldquoEverything by Everyone Everywhererdquobull Watershed conditions with maximum
controls on loads regardless of costbull Wastewater at high level of nutrient
control bull 3mgl TN 01 mgl TP
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
27
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Deriving the Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
28
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
MD
-Su
sq
VA
-Esh
VA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
PA
-Esh
Up
p
PA
-Po
tA
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Mid
DC
-Po
tA
WV
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Mid
NY
-Su
sq
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Ra
pA
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Yrk
A
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
Nitrogen Relative EffectivenessEffect of Nitrogen Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
MD
-Esh
Mid
MD
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Px
tB
MD
-Wsh
MD
-Su
sq
PA
-Esh
Up
p
DE
-Esh
Up
p
MD
-Po
tB
DC
-Po
tB
MD
-Esh
Lo
w
DE
-Esh
Mid
VA
-Po
tB
VA
-Esh
VA
VA
-Po
tA
DC
-Po
tA
MD
-Px
tA
PA
-Su
sq
MD
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pA
PA
-Po
tA
VA
-Ra
pB
DE
-Esh
Lo
w
NY
-Su
sq
WV
-Po
tA
PA
-Wsh
VA
-Yrk
B
VA
-Jm
sB
VA
-Jm
sA
WV
-Jm
sA
VA
-Yrk
A
Phosphorus Relative EffectivenessEffect of Phosphorus Load Reduction on WQ Standard Attainment
WWTP All ElseA = Above Fall Line B = Below Fall Line
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 1059
PA 12241 9928 7318
MD 8356 5589 4530
WV 873 806 635
DC 648 175 243
DE 697 659 459
VA 8429 6153 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0506
PA 6115 3696 3073
MD 7419 3919 3604
WV 0793 0560 0456
DC 0090 0062 0130
DE 0225 0115 0120
VA 13545 6345 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Load Reduction of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Beyond Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase II WIP Loads
More Reduction Necessary =gtlt= Higher Loads Allowed
AssumptionsPhase II WIPs Meet WQSConowingo not included
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review process
34
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Jurisdiction-Specific Planning Target Profiles
35
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
PA Draft Phase III WIP Planning Targets + Reference LoadsNitrogen Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 081 029 063 043 045
PA Potomac 1104 408 811 539 606
PA
Susquehanna 12782 4805 9051 6399 6665
PA Western
Shore 004 001 003 002 002
PA Total 12971 5243 9928 6983 7318
Phosphorus Load
No-Action
(M lbs)
E3
(M lbs)
2013 Progress
(M lbs)
Phase II WIP
(reference)
(M lbs)
Draft Phase III
WIP Planning
Target
(M lbs)
PA Eastern
Shore 005 002 003 002 003
PA Potomac 072 019 040 032 035
PA
Susquehanna 670 146 327 276 269
PA Western
Shore 0002 0000 0001 0001 0001
PA Total 747 167 369 310 307
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
PA Nitrogen Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
draft 2016Progres
201760 Goal
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
PA Phosphorus Loads-Goals Phase 6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
mil
lio
n l
bs
201760 Goal
draft 2016 Progress
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
PA Nitrogen Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
PA Phosphorus Loads Reference Scenarios and Target
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1985 2013 Phase II WIP(reference)
Draft Phase IIIWIP Planning
Target
E3
mil
lio
n l
bs
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
53
15
11
2
19
639
11
1
16
PA Nitrogen Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Septic Natural
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
PA Phosphorus Loads and Target
1985 2013 Draft Phase III WIPPlanning Target
Agriculture Developed Wastewater Natural
42
530
23
36
1224
28
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Process and Schedule for 4-Month
Review Period
43
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
44
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
PSC Approved Schedule
bull December 19-20 2017 PSC 2-day retreat and decision making
bull December 22 2017 Release of draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull December 22 2017 ndash April 20 2018 Partnershiprsquos review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
bull Late AprilEarly May 2018 PSC approval of the final Phase III WIP planning targets with any agreed-to special cases
bull May 7 2018 Release of the final Phase III WIP planning targets
45
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
During the 4-Month Review Period
bull Analyze level of effort to achieve the draft planning targets
bull Evaluate effects of accounting for growth Conowingo infill and climate change on level of effort
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen andor phosphorus loads between a jurisdictionrsquos major river basins
bull Assess the need for exchanges of nitrogen for phosphorus or phosphorus for nitrogen within a jurisdictionrsquos major river basin
bull Determine if any special cases are needed
46
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Possible Changes Between Now and April 2018
bull Requests for special conditions
bull Conducting basin to basin exchanges of N P and sediment loads
bull Conducting significant N for P and P for N exchanges
bull Virginiarsquos decisions on N and P reductions needed to achieve their existing or revised chlorophyll a criteria and water quality standards for the tidal James River
47
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
What are Special Cases
Special cases are requests by the jurisdictions for any
1) Changes to their draft Phase III WIP planning targets
2) Changes to the methodology used to establish the draft Phase III WIP planning targets
48
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Who Can Submit a Special Case Request
bull Any one of the seven Bay watershed jurisdictions to the CBP Water Quality Goal Implementation Team (WQGIT) Chair and the CBP WQGIT Coordinator
49
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Notification of Special Case Requests
March 16 2018
Final deadline for submitting the special case request(s) along with the justification and associated nutrient and basin exchanges to the Partnership for consideration
50
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Process for Addressing Special Cases
1 CBPO staff will work with the jurisdictions to address and identify potential resolutions for special cases during the 4-month review period
2 For transparency updates will be provided to the WQGIT during each conference call during the 4-month review period communicating
bull Who has submitted special case requests
bull Proposed options for resolving the special case request(s)
3 PSC will approve any special case requests submitted to the Partnership for review and consideration
51
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Options for Resolving Special Cases
bull In the event the PSC cannot reach consensus on the resolution of special case requests the PSC can either
1 Resolve the issue by a supermajority vote per the Partnershiprsquos governance procedures or
2 Request that EPA make the final decision
52
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 100 1159 1059
PA -058 7260 7318
MD -031 4499 4530
WV -003 631 635
DC 000 242 243
DE -006 453 459
VA -024 5558 5582
Basinwide -022 19803 19825
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
JurisdictionSpecial Cases With Special
CasesPhase III
Planning Target
NY 0100 0606 0506
PA -0102 2971 3073
MD -0083 3521 3604
WV 0200 0656 0456
DC -0001 0129 0130
DE -0004 0115 0120
VA -0133 6053 6186
Basinwide -0023 1405 14073
Proposed Draft Phase III Planning Targets with Special Cases Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendation
Approval of proposed process for the Partnershiprsquos 4-month review of the draft Phase III WIP planning targets including addressing special case requests
55
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Accounting for Growth in the Jurisdictionsrsquo
Phase III WIPs
56
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendation
57
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Future Growth Scenarios 2025
Purpose
To provide information to state and local partners to account for the effects of land use planning and conservation actions for reducing future pollutant loads in their Phase III WIPs and two-year milestones
Current Zoning Scenario 2025 Baseline for Phase III WIPs
bull Continuation of historic trends constrained by existing local zoning
bull Includes the best available regional and local data representing current conditions
58
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Future Growth ScenariosConservation Plus Scenario Package of Planning amp Conservation ldquoBMPrsquosrdquo
bull Protect 100-year floodplain and frequently-flooded soilsbull Protect riparian zones (35-ft 100-ft 300-ft)bull Protect large forest tracts (250+ acres 1000+ acres) or green infrastructurebull Protect shoreline forests (all contiguous tracts 1000-ft from shoreline)bull Adjusting demand script
bull Increase percent of infillredevelopment (eg 5 10 15)bull Increase proportion of urban vs rural growth (eg 5 10 15)
bull Protect Agricultural Districtsbull Avoid growth on soils unsuitable for septic systemsbull Expand sewer service areas layer (eg 1-mile buffer 2-mile buffer)bull Avoid growth in areas subject to category 3 Hurricane storm surgebull Protect highly productive farms prime farmlands farmland of state importancebull Protect state-designated ldquoHealthy watershedsrdquobull Protect areas subject to marsh migration (eg upland buffer around tidal wetlands and
National Wildlife refuges)59
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
60
Extent of Local Zoning Data
Collected by CBP from local and state agencies 2013 - 2017
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Residential InfillRedevelopment Commercial InfillRedevelopment
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
62
Increase in Impervious Surfaces Increase in Turf Grass
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Forest Conversion to Development
63
Current ZoningScenario
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Growth on Sewer and Septic
64
Current ZoningScenario
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Farmland Conversion to Development Farmland Conversion + Land Retirement
Current ZoningScenario
Current ZoningScenario
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Nitrogen
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073Units millions of pounds
WQGIT amp Modeling Workgroup Recommendations Phosphorus
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendation
70
bull Use the Partnershiprsquos Land Change Model to establish growth projections with the opportunity for states (eg Maryland) to provide data or alternative modeling approaches in future years which will be vetted through the Partnership approval process
bull Use 2025 growth projections based on current zoning as base conditions for the Phase III WIPs
bull Update the growth projections every 2 years with the best available data to inform the development of the two-year milestones
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Factoring in Climate Change into the
Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPs
71
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
PSC-Approved Guiding Principles WIP Development
bull Capitalize on ldquoCo-benefitsrdquo ndash maximize BMP selection to increase climate resiliency
bull Account for and integrate planning and consideration of existing stressors ndash consider existing stressors in establishing reduction targets or BMP selection
bull Align with existing climate resilient plans and strategies ndash document jurisdictionsrsquo action plans and strategies to address climate change
bull Manage for risk and plan for uncertainty ndash employ risk management and flexible implementation strategies to achieve and maintain water quality standards
bull Engage Local Agencies and Leaders ndash work cooperatively with local partners to provide best available data on local impacts
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
PSC Approved Guiding PrinciplesWIP Implementation
bull Reduce vulnerability ndash use ldquoClimate Smartrdquo principles to site and design BMPs
bull Build in flexibility and adaptability ndash allow for adjustments in BMP implementation to consider potential uncertainties and response options
bull Adaptive manage ndash allow for changes in BMP selection or WIP implementation over-time
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
76
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Accounting for Changing ConditionsCumulative Assessment of Bay Low Dissolved Oxygen Impacts
77
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TPCAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
Deep
Channel
CB3MH MD 0 0
CB4MH MD 6 8 10
CB5MH MD 0 0 0
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 4
EASMH MD 6 7 8
Bay Water Quality Responses to 2025 Climate Change ConditionsChanges in estimated 2025 dissolved oxygen criteria attainment for Deep Channel Deep Water and Open Water due to observed temperature and precipitation changes since 1991-2000 (years of average Bay hydrology)
78
Deep Channel nonattainment increases by 2 in CB4MH
Deep Water nonattainment increases by 1 in CB5MH
Procedures for assessing Open Water attainment under climate change conditions are being developed
WIP2
WIP2 +
Cono Infill
WIP2 + Cono
Infill + CC
Run 223 195TN 208TN 210TN
113017 137TP 154TP 153TP
CAST Loads 1993-1995 1993-1995 1993-1995
Cbseg State Deep Water Deep Water Deep Water
CB4MH MD 5 6 7
CB5MH MD 1 1 2
CB5MH VA 0 0 0
CB6PH VA 0 0 0
CB7PH VA 0 0 0
PATMH MD 1 2 3
MAGMH MD 1 5 5
SOUMH MD 3 8 7
SEVMH MD 0 0 0
PAXMH MD 0 0 0
POTMH MD 0 0 0
RPPMH VA 0 0 0
YRKPH VA 0 0 0
ELIPH VA 0 0 0
CHSMH MD 0 0 0
EASMH MD 0 0 0
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Estimated Changes in Watershed and Bay Loads by 2025 Due to Climate Change
bull Inorganic nutrients are increased with climate change
bull Organic nutrients are decreased
bull Inorganic nutrients have a higher effect on dissolved oxygen
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Calculate Climate Effect
Volume Weighted means a lsquored arearsquo increase of 80 million cubic meters
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Climate Effect is 96 reduction in N and P from the Susquehanna
75 Mlbs of N and 033 Mlbs of P
Ran Scenarios with 3 and 6 reduction
in Susquehanna
N and P
The 75 million N and 33 million P from the Susquehanna converts to 91 million N and 049 P Basin-Wide
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressClimate Change Phase III
Planning Target
NY 18710 15440 0400 (38) 10594
PA 122414 99275 4135 (57) 73181
MD 83556 55893 2194 (48) 45296
WV 8727 8065 0236 (37) 6347
DC 6481 1754 0006 (02) 2425
DE 6968 6587 0397 (87) 4587
VA 84295 61530 1722 (31) 55822
Basinwide 331151 248544 9089 (46) 198253
Climate Change Loads Nitrogen
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Climate Change Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 0015 (29) 0506
PA 6115 3696 0143 (47) 3073
MD 7419 3919 0117 (32) 3604
WV 0793 0560 0017 (37) 0456
DC 0090 0062 0001 (08) 0130
DE 0225 0115 0006 (51) 0120
VA 13545 6345 0187 (30) 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0485 (34) 14073
Climate Change Loads Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
1 Adopt a programmatic approach to address climate change bull Include a narrative strategy in the Phase III WIPs that describes the
jurisdictionsrsquo current action plans and strategies to address climate change as well as the jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change conditions (derived using the planning targets methodology)
bull Incorporate local priorities (eg flooding) and actions to address climate change impacts
bull Document the current understanding of the science and identify the research gaps and needs and what we hope to learn over time given the current state of uncertainty (eg a better understanding of the BMP responses including new or other emerging BMPs to climate change conditions)
bull Identify a date by which the Partnership will provide additional science and information to help inform implementation efforts to address climate change (early 2021 to inform 2022-2023 milestones)
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
2 Document and communicate additional nutrient pollutant loads of up to 9 million pounds of nitrogen and 05 million pounds of phosphorus due to 2025 climate change conditionsbull Continue to understand the nature and effect of climate change impacts in the watershed
and estuary to inform management strategies (eg WIP2-year milestones)
bull By [insert date] develop recommendations for new andor refined methods and modeling techniques to better assess projected impacts on watershed loads and estuarine impacts for a range of future scenarios including the methodology used to develop jurisdiction-specific nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change impacts
bull By [insert date] consider results of updated methods techniques and studies and revisit whether to explicitly account for those additional nutrient pollutant loads due to 2025 climate change conditions in the Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones
bull Identify a date (post-2025) by which the Partnership will fully address the additional nutrient pollutant loads in a Phase III WIP addendum andor 2-year milestones
Proposed RecommendationAdopt a dual approach to factor climate change
into the Phase III WIPs
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendation
Provide the jurisdictions with the flexibility to explicitly account for additional nutrient pollutant loadings due to 2025 climate change impacts in their Phase III WIPs andor 2-year milestones prior to the Partnership agreed-upon date
86
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Conowingo Dam Infill How Much Who How
and By WhenLee Currey MDE CBP Modeling Workgroup Co-Chair
87
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
88
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
89
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
90
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
91
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
92
bull Almost all of the nutrients are from upstream sources
bull Much of the nutrients are biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
bull Some of the nutrients are scoured from the bottom sediments behind the dam
bull Much of these scoured nutrients are not biologically available to algae when they enter tidal waters
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
Therefore the determination of nutrient loads to be reduced to account for Conowingo infill must factor in the type of nutrients and the timing of delivery
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Conowingo Effect on Loads at the WIP2 condition
1863
3217
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
TSSX
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualSuspendedSolidsDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00)
2010WIP2DE(91-00)
3
54
12
69
3
54
25
82
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NH3X NO23 ORGN TOTN
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualNitrogenDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
0812 11
31
08
19 21
49
00
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PO4X PIPX ORGP TOTP
Millions
ConowingoAverageAnnualPhosphorusDelivery
2010WIP2(91-00) 2010WIP2DE(91-00)
93
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Who
How
When
Original Options How to Offset the Additional Loads Due to Conowingo Dam Infill
By 2025Post-2025 with agreed-upon date
Beyond 2025 ndashno future date identified
Allocation equity rules used in the Bay TMDL
Assign additional load as local planning goal
94
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Estimated Loads to the Bay with Conowingo Dam and Reservoir at Infill Conditions
95
Additional Phosphorus Load 18 million pounds
Additional Nitrogen Load 13 million pounds
HOWEVER These are less bioavailable nutrients and its delivery to Bay is dependent on large storm events Therefore only a smaller than expected (2 percent increase) in non-attainment in Middle Central Chesapeake Bay Deep-Channel Equivalent to 6 million pounds of
Nitrogen and 026 million pounds of Phosphorus
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 057 050 036 032
PA 531 471 334 331
MD 012 078 197 176
WV 000 000 000 019
DC 000 000 000 000
DE 000 000 000 032
VA 000 014 154 138
Basinwide 601 612 721 728
Estimated Additional Nitrogen Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
JurisdictionSusquehanna
Only Susquehanna + Effective Basins
Susquehanna + MD and VA
Entire Watershed
NY 0027 0020 0013 0012
PA 0230 0176 0109 0115
MD 0005 0070 0101 0093
WV 0000 0000 0000 0013
DC 0000 0000 0000 0001
DE 0000 0000 0000 0005
VA 0000 0000 0162 0150
Basinwide 0262 0266 0385 0389
Estimated Additional Phosphorus Reductions Required Under the Four Options
Units millions of pounds
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Develop a separate implementation plan which is a Partnership collaboration to address the additional reductions needed as a result of infill bull Address impacts in a way that makes the most scientific and economic sense
and supports those that can reduce pollution more effectively
98
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendations
WQGIT-recommended approach recognizes that all jurisdictions have benefited from the Conowingo reservoir and its nutrient and sediment pollution trapping and that there is a less costly approach than assignment of allocations that achieves water quality objectives and does not require reductions by all jurisdictions
bull Create approach that pools resources bull Pooled resources which may include funding technical assistance advocacy
intellectual property etc from all jurisdictions would be managed (both in terms of allocation of funds and verification tracking of reductions) by a third party under Partnership oversight
bull Pooling of resources and implementation would be phased in over time as appropriate
99
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach bull Reach Partnership consensus on the approach
bull PSC to send letter to Exelon
bull All jurisdictions and other partners develop the plan
bull Determine the role of Exelon in plan implementation based on Marylandrsquos decisions regarding 401 certification
bull Finalize plan and determine gaps and contingencies
bull Begin plan implementation
100
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Proposed Recommendations
bull Necessary steps to implement proposed approach (Continued)bull Evaluate as is currently done with the milestones the effectiveness and progress of the
plan on an annual basis
bull Reevaluate the plan and make any necessary adjustments based on jurisdictional WIP implementation and any other factors that might influence plan success
bull Need to develop timelines to develop and implement the plan (by 2025) bull Includes conducting a gap analysis to determine if the plan could be fully implemented
by 2025
bull Conowingo Plan development likely to occur concurrently with Phase III WIP development
101
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Accounting for Growth Conowingo and Climate
Change in the Jurisdictionsrsquo Phase III WIPsmdash
DRAFT hellip THESE MAY CHANGE
102
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Jurisdiction1985
Baseline 2013
ProgressGrowth in Load
to 2025Phase III
Planning Target
NY 1871 1544 -074 1059
PA 12241 9928 166 7318
MD 8356 5589 152 4530
WV 873 806 -002 635
DC 648 175 000 243
DE 697 659 048 459
VA 8429 6153 109 5582
Basinwide 33115 24854 400 19825Units millions of pounds
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Nitrogen
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Summary of ldquoAll the Numbersrdquo Phosphorus
Units millions of pounds
Jurisdiction 1985 Baseline
2013 Progress
Growth in Load to 2025
Phase III Planning Target
NY 1198 0710 -0005 0506
PA 6115 3696 0044 3073
MD 7419 3919 -0015 3604
WV 0793 0560 -0017 0456
DC 0090 0062 0000 0130
DE 0225 0115 0007 0120
VA 13545 6345 0140 6186
Basinwide 29384 15408 0154 14073
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
Final Requested Policy Decisions
1) Approval of the draft Phase III Planning Targets as the starting point for the 4-month review process
2) Approval of the approach to account for the additional loads delivered to the Bay due to the Conowingo infill
3) Approval of how to factor climate change into the Phase III WIPs
105
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053
DEP Chesapeake Bay Program Website httpwwwdeppagovChesapeakeBay
Phase 3 WIP Websitewwwdeppagovchesapeakebayphase3
Contact InformationVeronica Kasi
vbkasipagov717-772-4053