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© 2015 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved. Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document. CHINA A – PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? A Potential Too Big to Ignore October 2015 Theodore Niggli Managing Director MSCI Inc. Head of Index Products, Asia
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Page 1: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

© 2015 MSCI Inc. All rights reserved. Please refer to the disclaimer at the end of this document.

CHINA A – PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME?

A Potential Too Big to Ignore

October 2015

Theodore Niggli Managing Director MSCI Inc. Head of Index Products, Asia

Page 2: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

Assets Benchmarked by MSCI Indexes

Assets benchmarked to some MSCI index categories:

Approximately $9.5 trillion in assets are benchmarked to MSCI Indexes*

* As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment, Morningstar and Bloomberg. The institutional/retail split is based on eVestment and Morningstar database classification. Data excludes futures and options

** Dec 31, 2014, as reported on March 31, 2015, by eVestment, Morningstar and Bloomberg

^ The total sum is rounded to the nearest whole number after adding up the components, which are approximations to the nearest whole number

Assets Benchmarked to Key MSCI Indexes

$ billion Total

Dec-14** Mar-15* Δ

ACWI 2,065 2,214 7% EAFE 1,818 1,960 8% EM 1,548 1,642 6%

World 2,214 2,346 6%

US/USA 209 264 26% Europe 459 523 14% Asia 309 315 2% Other 391 311 -21%

TOTAL^ 9,013 9,575 6%

Assets Based on MSCI Indexes as of March 2015*

$ billion Active Passive Total

Institutional Funds 5,348 1,293 6,641

Retail Funds 2,391 124 2,516

ETFs 418 418

TOTAL^ 7,740 1,835 9,575

2

Page 3: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

> $1.6 trillion AUM tracking

the MSCI Emerging Markets Indexes(2)

Asia:

China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand

EMEA:

Czech Republic, Egypt, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Qatar, Russia, South Africa, Turkey and the UAE.

Americas:

Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru

The Emerging Markets MSCI reviews & identifies countries on the basis of: Economic development, Size, Liquidity Market accessibility & extensive discussions with investment community

(1) As of June 30, 2015

(2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment, Morningstar and Bloomberg.

Includes the MSCI EM, MSCI EM IMI, MSCI EM Small Cap, MSCI EM Large Cap, MSCI EM Mid Cap Indexes.

MSCI: Defining Emerging Markets for Over 25 Years

3

1988

1988

2015 11%

1%

10 countries 1% of world market cap

800+ securities, 23 countries 11% of world market cap1

MSCI launches first comprehensive emerging markets index

Page 4: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

Potential Inclusion of China A-shares

4

Page 5: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

o June 2013: MSCI first announced a review for the potential inclusion of A-shares

o March 2014: MSCI published the proposed index inclusion roadmap for A-shares inclusion

o June 2014: MSCI announced that A-shares will not be included but will keep A-shares in the review list

o July 2014: MSCI introduced the MSCI China All Shares Index and the MSCI China A International Index as standalone indexes

o September 2014: MSCI consulted on the expansion of coverage for overseas listed securities

o January 2015: MSCI announced that China ADRs will be included in the MSCI China A Index in Nov 2015 and May 2016

June 2015: MSCI announced A-shares will not be included but will keep A-shares in the review list

Potential A-Share Inclusion in MSCI EM Index

5

Page 6: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

CHINA25.3%

KR14.6%

TW13.0%

SA7.4%

BR7.3%

IN7.0%

MX4.6%

RU3.9%

Others17.0%

EmergingMarket

China25.3%

CHINA20.3%

CHINA A-Shares20.5%

CHINA Overseas2.8%

KR11.0%

TW9.8%

SA5.6%

BR5.5%

IN5.2%

MX3.5%

RU3.0%

Others12.8%

EmergingMarket

China43.6%

CHINA25.2%

CHINA A-Shares1.3%

CHINA Overseas3.5%

KR13.7%

TW12.1%

SA6.9%

BR6.8%

IN6.5%

MX4.3%

RU3.7%

Others15.9%

EmergingMarket

China30%

Potential Additional Steps: Partial Inclusion (>5%*)

Possible Index Inclusion Roadmap of China A-Shares

Potential Initial Step: Partial Inclusion (5%*)

• Further improvements in quota allocation mechanism and size of overall quota

• Further relaxation on capital mobility and other market accessibility constraints

• Abolishment of the quota system

• Full liberalization of capital mobility restrictions

• Alignment of International accessibility standards

* The percentage number refers to the Inclusion Factor applied to the free float-adjusted market capitalization of China A share constituents in the pro forma MSCI China Index. China A-share securities are subject to a foreign ownership limit of 30%

# Overseas listed China companies are will be included in Nov 2015 to May 2016 as announced earlier this year

Current Status

Potential Full Inclusion (100%*)

CHINA

CHINA A-Shares

CHINA Overseas

KR

TW

SA

BR

IN

MX

RU

Others

EmergingMarket

ChinaX%

A 5% inclusion of China A-Shares will translate into 1.3%

of index weight in the MSCI EM

6

Page 7: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

• Substantial progress has been made toward the opening of the Chinese equity market and China A-shares remain on track for potential inclusion into the MSCI Emerging Markets Index

─ Investors, however, expect further liberalization on quota allocation process, capital mobility restrictions and clarification on beneficial ownership of investments

• MSCI is maintaining the proposed roadmap for a 5% partial inclusion of China A-shares into the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and will form a joint working group with CSRC to address remaining market accessibility issues

• MSCI may potentially announce the inclusion as soon as the highlighted accessibility issues are resolved

─ The potential inclusion of China-A shares will remain an independent decision by MSCI

2015 MSCI Annual Market Classification Review

7

Page 8: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

• Since the 2014 Annual Market Classification Review announcement, MSCI has continued to observe positive market-opening developments in the Chinese capital market.

1. Successful launch of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program (“Stock Connect”)

2. Expansion of RQFII program from four cities to 13 cities

3. Clarification of the capital gains tax.

• The upcoming launch of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect program and potential further liberalization of the QFII program could further improve the overall accessibility of the China A-shares market for international institutional investors.

Key Highlights of 2015 assessment

8

Page 9: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

• Quota Allocation Process (QFII/RQFII)

─ Ability to access quota commensurate with the size of assets under management

─ Ability to secure additional quota with certainty should the need arise

─ A more streamlined, transparent and predictable quota allocation process

• Capital Mobility Restrictions (QFII/RQFII/Stock Connect)

─ Extension of daily liquidity for to all investment vehicles, including open-ended funds, ETFs and separate

accounts

─ Removal of capital lock-up and repatriation restrictions on QFII/RQFII

─ Elimination of potential trading uncertainty due to daily limit on the Stock Connect

• Beneficial Ownership (Separate Accounts)

─ Clarification on the Stock Connect beneficial ownership issue is a welcome development

─ Recognizing clear title to ownership in separate accounts is a crucial concern that requires urgent resolution

Remaining concerns to be addressed

9

Page 10: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

RQFII QFII Stock

Connect

Eligible Investors

Institutional investors based in selected eligible locations

Individual Quota: None

Institutional investors that meet certain operation and AUM requirements Individual Quota: > US$ 1 billion for non SWF and Central Bank QFIIs

All investors

Application Process

Need license (CSRC) and quota (SAFE) The process can range from weeks to months

N.A.

Capital Mobility

Open-Ended Funds: -Repatriation: Daily -Lock-up: None -Remit Period: None -Others: Quota required to be used within 1 year upon approval

Others: -Repatriation: Monthly -Lock-up: 1 year -Remit Period: 6 months

Open-Ended Funds: -Repatriation: Weekly -Lock-up: 3 months -Remit Period: 6 months -Others: Monthly repatriation cannot exceed 20% of NAV of previous year

Others: -Repatriation: Monthly -Lock-up: 1 year -Remit Period: 6 months -Others: Monthly repatriation cannot exceed 20% of NAV of previous year

No restriction

Equity Coverage Universe

All securities listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges

560+ stocks listed on Shanghai Stock

Exchange

Key Access Channels to China A-shares

10

Page 11: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

Allocating to China A equities?

11

Page 12: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

o The foreign investors interest in Quota, whether QDII, RQFII and more recently Stock Connect, continues to grow

o Roughly, 50% of the aggregate quota has been used

Cumulative Quota Usage of QFII, RQFII and Stock Connect

QFII Quota ($B) # of QFII Licensees

Total New quota

issued Δ Total New

2010 19.7 3 18% 103 13

2011 21.2 1.4 7% 132 29

2012 37.4 16.3 77% 204 72

2013 49.7 12.3 33% 249 45

2014 66.9 17.2 35% 274 25

July 2015 76.6 9.7 25% 289 15

12

Total Quota US$140bn

Used Quota 76.6

Unused Quota 73.4

QFII Quota Usage as of end-July 2015 (USD bn)

Total Quota US$150bn

Used Quota, 64.9

Unused Quota, 83.1

RQFII Quota Usage as of end-July 2015 (USD bn)

Total Quota US$148bn

Used Quota, 31.4

Unused Quota, 16.6

Stock Connect Usage as of end-July 2015 (USD bn)

Total Quota US$48bn

Page 13: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

The Big Disconnect

China 2nd largest economy Projected to deliver 5-7% GDP growth Already represents more than 1/5 of MSCI EM

China A One of the largest & most liquid & least correlated markets *

but

Less than 2% of foreign participation

Main Concerns Market Accessibility Benchmarking Issue Investment View Governance Concern

*MSCI research insight: China A-shares: Too Big to Ignore, (Wang, Chia, 2014)

13

Page 14: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

Listed Equities vs. GDP

o Since 2004, the aggregated Revenues of Chinese Companies has grown from 27% of GDP to 65% of GDP (more than tripled)

o Listed equities now offer a more representative access point to gain exposure to China’s GDP growth. A-shares are the largest component

5.1%8.8%8.7%

24.2%

13.2%

32.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2004 2013

Aggregate Revenue as a % of China's GDP

Overlap Unique MSCI China Unique MSCI China A

Total 27%

Total 65%

Source: MSCI and Bloomberg. Note: Aggregate revenue and GDP in USD. The “overlap” refers to dual-listed shares in both MSCI China and MSCI China A.

14

Page 15: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

• While the major EM countries all seem to be highly correlated with one another, China A-shares stand out by having low correlations

Low Correlation Plays are Rare in Today’s Environment

Correlations of Monthly Returns (Dec 31, 2004 - Jun 30, 2014)

ACWI EAFE WORLD EM

China A 0.41 0.39 0.39 0.49

China* 0.75 0.75 0.72 0.88

USA 0.96 0.90 0.97 0.80

Japan 0.76 0.81 0.76 0.69

Europe 0.97 0.99 0.97 0.87

Brazil 0.79 0.78 0.76 0.91

Russia 0.79 0.79 0.76 0.86

India 0.78 0.75 0.75 0.85

South Africa 0.82 0.82 0.80 0.87

Taiwan 0.79 0.76 0.76 0.85

Korea 0.82 0.79 0.79 0.88

Note: Based on unhedged gross monthly return series in USD.

* Current MSCI China Index excluding A-shares

15

Page 16: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

0

50

100

150

200

250

Dec-00 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14

Cumulative Relative Performance

MSCI China A/MSCI ACWI

MSCI China A vs. MSCI ACWI®

16

China A Outperformed

ACWI Outperformed

ACWI Outperformed

China A Outperformed

China A Outperformed

ACWI Outperformed

Total Net Returns, calculated in CNY

• Difficult to predict when China A shares will outperform

• A-shares have historically outperformed in relatively short bursts

Page 17: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

Historical Volatility

17

5%

15%

25%

35%

Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14

3-year Rolling Standard Deviation (Dec. 2003 – Jul. 2015)

MSCI ACWI MSCI China A MSCI World MSCI EM

Page 18: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

CHINA A: Risk Factors differences

18

February 2003 – April 2015

-3

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Bet

a

Mo

m

Gro

wth

Leve

rage

Size

B t

o P EY

Mid

Cap

Re

s V

ol

Liq

Info

rma

tio

n R

ati

o

China A Shares (CNE5)

Global Equities (GEM3)

Emerging Market Equities (EMM1)

Page 19: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

The Number of Securities Listed in Domestic China

Capturing the Dynamic Evolution of China A-shares

• A fast changing landscape, with an ever increasing number of listed companies

MSCI’s target representation approach to index construction represents a more effective way to capture the expansive

opportunity set. Conversely, an index based on a fixed number of companies could potentially lose its effectiveness and incur

un-intended sector bets as the market expand

19

475 487589

992

1214 1119

1467

1659

18121874 1888 1882

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015

Shanghai Main Board Shenzhen Main Board

Shenzhen GEM Board MSCI China A IMI constituents

Source: MSCI and Bloomberg. Data as of June 30, 2015

Page 20: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

B Shares0.4%

H Shares55.4%

P-Chips20.4%

Red Chips23.8%

B Shares0.4%

H Shares48.2%

Overseas12.9%

P-Chips17.8%

Red Chips20.7%

A shares47.2%

B Shares0.3%

H Shares25.1%

Overseas6.3%

P-Chips10.3%

Red Chips10.8%

Roadmap to a Comprehensive China Equity Index

20

May 2015

139 Stocks US$1.02tr

Nov 2015- May 2016

End Game

156 Stocks US$1.17tr

522 Stocks US$2.33tr

Data as of May 29, 2015

• Inclusion of overseas listed Chinese companies such as Baidu and Alibaba

• Full inclusion of A shares

Page 21: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

The main MSCI China Indexes “in-play”

Dedicated Complete

MSCI China A

For investors with full access to the broad A-shares opportunity set (e.g. QFII)

MSCI China A International

Index that will be included in EM if/when

MSCI China All Shares

The complete China opportunity set - assumes full China A inclusion

MSCI China

Part of the EM Index

Will include A-shares if/when

21

Current

Future

144

555 370

580

Data as of July 31, 2015

China is a large and complex opportunity set which has so far been artificially compartmentalized by share-class. Overtime, investors

should see China as one, in particular global investors

Page 22: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

22 Source: MSCI

Index Performance (USD)

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Nov-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Nov-10 May-11 Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15

Cumulative Index Performance -- Gross Return in USD (Nov. 2008 – Jul. 2015)

MSCI China A MSCI China A International MSCI China All Shares MSCI China

China A

China A Int’l

China

All Shares

Page 23: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

23 Source: MSCI

Historical Volatility (USD)

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Nov-11 May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15

3-Year Rolling Annualized Std. Dev.- Gross Return in USD (Nov. 2008 – Jul. 2015)

MSCI China A MSCI China A International MSCI China All Shares MSCI China

China A

China A Int’l

All Shares

China

Page 24: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

MSCI China in MSCI EM

Source: MSCI Barra, MSCI EM risk attribution using GEM2 model Dated on 30 Apr 2015, compared to MSCI ACWI

• Country factor is the largest contributor to the overall risk in the MSCI Emerging Market benchmark

• The largest country-risk contribution is China

Active Risk Active

Correlation

Active Risk Contribution

China (International) 4.2% 0.78 3.33%

United States 2.0% -0.60 1.19%

Korea 1.4% 0.52 0.73%

Taiwan 1.1% 0.43 0.47%

India 1.0% 0.48 0.46%

Brazil 0.9% 0.48 0.44%

Japan 0.8% -0.01 0.01%

Russia 0.8% 0.31 0.24%

South Africa 0.6% 0.23 0.12%

Mexico 0.4% 0.30 0.12%

Top 10 contributors for Country risk

24

Page 25: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

• China A shares is a large segment, with a rich mix of local companies, thus forms a reasonable access point to China GPD and to a diversifying Risk Premium

─ If there were no investment barriers, one could postulate that all long-term investors would already have a material allocation to China

─ There are still barriers to access – but they are diminishing

─ The current practice used by Pension Plans with QFII quota is to see China A-shares as an off-benchmark bet to their EM allocation. Most mandates are typically active

Thinking ahead, an open question is whether Pensions should split their current practice of allocating to Global Emerging Market – or not?

Depending one’s beliefs (and analysis) - there could be 4 possible configurations

B-mark choice Keep China in EM Break-out China

Manager’s discretion Follow the benchmark

MSCI EM MSCI China

Control A-shares exposure MSCI EM + % China A-shares MSCI China A or China A Int’l MSCI China All-shares

POTENTIAL CONCLUSIONS

25

Page 26: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

APPENDIX

26

Page 27: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

China Equity Opportunities Set

27 27

Page 28: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

CHINA A2.8%

CHINA OVERSEA0.4%

CHINA2.7%

USA49.7%

JAPAN7.7%

KOREA1.5%

TAIWAN1.3%

Hypothetical Weight of MSCI ACWI

CHINA23.0%

CHINA A23.2%

CHINA OVERSEA3.2%

KOREA12.5%

TAIWAN11.1%

Hypothetical Weight of MSCI Asia Ex Japan

CHINA20.3%

CHINA A20.5%

CHINA OVERSEA2.8%

KOREA11.0%

TAIWAN9.8%

Hypothetical Weight of MSCI EM

• Under a hypothetical full inclusion scenario, the weight of China in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index will be over 43%

Hypothetical weight of China A in Global Indexes

28

Weight of China 5.9%

Weight of China 43.6%

Weight of China 49.4%

Data as of May 29, 2015

Page 29: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

MSCI MARKET CLASSIFICATION SCHEME

29

Page 30: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

MSCI MARKET CLASSIFICATION SCHEME

30

Page 31: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

31

2015 Market Classification

excerpt

MSCI MARKET CLASSIFICATION SCHEME

Page 32: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

32

• MSCI China All Shares Index has higher Dividend Yield, and lower P/E, P/BV

Index Performance — Gross Returns (%) Fundamentals

Annualized Div Yld (%) P/E P/E Fwd P/BV

1 Yr YTD 3 Yr 5 Yr 10 Yr

MSCI China A 64.82 14.63 23.20 10.58 21.66 1.48 20.05 15.17 2.54

MSCI China A International

63.75 11.41 20.98 10.28 n.a. 1.60 18.74 14.63 2.38

MSCI China All Shares 25.49 6.83 15.47 7.29 n.a. 2.24 13.62 11.47 1.77

MSCI China 3.10 2.49 10.37 4.40 10.12 2.92 10.57 9.41 1.41

Index Characteristics

Gross, USD MSCI China A MSCI China A International MSCI China All Shares MSCI China

Number of Constituents

580 370 555 144

Mkt Cap ($M)

Index 1,738,353.92 969,795.13 1,895,741.54 888,793.58

Largest 49,481.15 17,463.94 96,225.33 96,225.33

Smallest 473.88 569.36 341.46 897.52

Average 2,997.16 2,621.07 3,415.75 6,172.18

Median 1,833.79 1,689.37 1,778.20 2,637.62

Data as of July 31, 2015

Index Characteristics

Page 33: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

33

MSCI China A and MSCI China A Int’l have similar sector exposures

The weight of IT and Telecom Services are higher in MSCI China All Shares and MSCI China

Data as of July 31, 2015

Sector and Share Class Breakdown Share Class Breakdown of

MSCI China All Shares Index

Share Class Breakdown of MSCI China Index

GICS Sector Name MSCI China A MSCI China A International

MSCI China All Shares

MSCI China

Consumer Discretionary 10.68 9.20 6.97 4.20

Consumer Staples 5.04 5.35 4.73 3.94

Energy 2.79 3.85 6.10 8.74

Financials 31.23 32.83 36.68 41.96

Health Care 7.07 5.97 4.12 2.11

Industrials 20.59 22.24 15.25 7.30

Information Technology 8.55 6.90 10.30 13.78

Materials 9.28 8.30 5.58 2.17

Telecommunication Services 0.73 0.82 5.69 11.25

Utilities 4.03 4.54 4.57 4.56

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

A 51.2%

H 25.5%

RED CHIP 11.8%

P CHIP 11.2%

B 0.3%

H 53.3%

RED CHIP 24.6%

P CHIP 21.7%

B 0.3%

Page 34: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

Parameter MSCI China A MSCI China A International

MSCI China All Shares MSCI China Rationale

Index Construction Methodology

Target to cover 85% of the free float market cap of China A Investable Equity Universe

Include the China A-share constituents of the MSCI China All Shares Index

Target to cover 85% of the free float market cap of integrated China Equity Universe combining A‐shares, B-shares, H‐shares, Red‐chips, and P‐chips

Target to cover 85% of the free float market cap of the China Equity Universe across H-shares, B-shares, Red-chips and P-chips

Based on MSCI GIMI methodology - no gaps no overlap, aiming to achieve global size integrity with other countries in the MSCI EM Index

Eligible Universe

A-shares listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges ST of *ST2 securities are

excluded

China A‐shares, B-shares, H‐shares, Red‐chips, and P‐chips

H-shares, B-shares, Red-chips and P-chips (Inclusion of overseas listed Chinese companies at Nov. SAIR)

Designed to reflect the comprehensive investable investment opportunity set of Chinese companies

Inclusion Factor

Domestic inclusion factor (DIF)

Foreign inclusion factor (FIF) (subjected to Foreign Ownership Limits)

Indexes with a fixed number of stocks may not reflect the complete opportunity set

# of Constituents (as of Jul. 31st, 2015)

Not fixed

580 370 555 144

Index Review 2 Semi-Annual Index Reviews (SAIR)

2 Quarterly Index Reviews (QIR)

Reflecting the evolution of the underlying equity markets and segments on a timely basis

Buffer zones for Rebalancing

+50% and -33% of cutoff for SAIR +80% and -50% of cutoff for QIR

Help reduce turnover without significantly impacting the index performance and characteristics

Industry Classification

GICS Widely accepted as the industry classification standard

IOSCO Compliant MSCI has a long history of defining and adopting best practice in the equity index business

Methodology Highlights

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Simulated impact on MSCI China from the GIMI enhancement

35

Enhancements to the Coverage of the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes: Simulated Impact on the MSCI Emerging Markets IMI

All market caps are in USD millions. Prices as of April 20, 2015

1) Addition of foreign listed companies

SEDOL Security Name Country of Classification Country of Listing Country of Incorporation Listing Type Company Full Market Cap FIF FIF Market Cap Weight in MSCI Country Index Weight in MSCI Country Small Cap Index

BP41ZD1 ALIBABA GROUP HLDG ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 204,457 0.25 51,114 4.20% -

B0FXT17 BAIDU ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 74,429 1 58,502 4.80% -

BMM27D9 JD.COM ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 45,602 0.3 10,927 0.90% -

B3N0H17 VIPSHOP HOLDINGS ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 16,368 0.5 7,004 0.58% -

2606440 NETEASE COM ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 14,893 0.6 8,936 0.73% -

2208987 CTRIP COM INTL ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 9,045 1 9,045 0.74% -

B4MWN57 QIHOO 360 TECH A ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 7,615 0.85 4,589 0.38% -

BG3GS91 58.COM ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 6,130 1 3,530 0.29% -

BH5QGR0 AUTOHOME ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 5,855 0.9 2,155 0.18% -

BG7ZL40 QUNAR CAYMAN ISLANDS ADRCHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 5,425 0.95 1,944 0.16% -

B1CN1G6 NEW ORIENTAL EDUCAT ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 3,893 0.85 3,309 0.27% -

B7QNYP4 YY INC ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 3,594 0.85 1,810 0.15% -

BMHTQD8 JUMEI INTERNATIONAL ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 3,200 0.95 1,791 0.15% -

B4NQHS9 YOUKU TUDOU ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 3,165 1 2,577 0.21% -

B4JTX51 SHANDA GAMES ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 2,909 0.65 980 - 0.58%

B4MGD82 TAL EDUCATION GROUP ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 2,843 0.95 1,339 - 0.80%

B531ND8 BITAUTO HOLDINGS ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 2,514 0.45 1,131 - 0.67%

2608123 SOHU.COM CHINA USA USA STOCK 2,422 0.8 1,938 - 1.16%

2579230 SINA CORP CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS STOCK 2,374 1 2,374 - 1.42%

B2Q7X98 TIANJIN ZHONG XIN PHAR CHINA SINGAPORE CHINA STOCK 2,227 1 296 - 0.18%

B3NLGR9 SOUFUN HOLDINGS ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 2,207 0.55 1,120 - 0.67%

B02TT74 51JOB ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 2,078 0.35 727 - 0.43%

BSS6HX7 MOMO A ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 2,076 0.25 386 - 0.23%

B0GNP30 SEASPAN CORP N CHINA USA MARSHALL ISLANDS STOCK 1,835 0.4 734 - 0.44%

B5MDP39 NOAH HOLDINGS ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 1,696 0.4 678 - 0.40%

B65R7B7 CHANGYOU COM ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 1,518 0.9 293 - 0.17%

B3Q0VS9 21VIANET GROUP A ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 1,496 0.95 1,248 - 0.74%

B11Y2X4 HUTCHISON CHINA MEDITECH CHINA UK CAYMAN ISLANDS STOCK 1,403 0.3 421 - 0.25%

BTKNGJ2 HOMEINNS HOTEL GROUP ADRCHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 1,234 0.65 802 - 0.48%

BL0RT11 IKANG HEALTHCARE A ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 1,114 0.7 761 - 0.45%

BM69156 TUNIU CORP ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 1,006 0.55 244 - 0.15%

B23F975 PERFECT WORLD CO ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 921 0.85 690 - 0.41%

B4Y04G7 RENREN A ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 900 0.4 253 - 0.15%

B64H9N4 JINKOSOLAR HLDG CO ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 887 0.65 577 - 0.34%

BN794N1 ZHAOPIN ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 844 1 131 - 0.08%

2186191 CHINA YUCHAI INT N (USD) CHINA USA BERMUDA STOCK 780 0.5 390 - 0.23%

B3ZJ972 E COMMERCE CHINA ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 712 0.95 455 - 0.27%

BKXNG07 TARENA INTERNATIONAL ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 634 1 210 - 0.13%

B7QJQM3 CHINA MOBILE GAMES A ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 626 0.6 222 - 0.13%

BGK07D3 500.COM ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 623 1 452 - 0.27%

B4L0CF5 BONA FILM GROUP ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 622 0.4 249 - 0.15%

B1KHKJ6 KANDI TECHNOLOGIES CORP CHINA USA USA STOCK 562 0.75 421 - 0.25%

B3M88S6 PHOENIX NEW MEDIA A ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 535 0.75 189 - 0.11%

B7Y9K23 JA SOLAR HOLDINGS CO ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 501 0.85 426 - 0.25%

B4KRJ56 XUNLEI ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 497 0.25 124 - 0.07%

BPN6764 IDREAMSKY TECHNOLOGY ADRCHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 442 0.9 206 - 0.12%

B628SW1 CKH FOOD & HEALTH CHINA KOREA CAYMAN ISLANDS STOCK 395 0.5 198 - 0.12%

B0N7FN5 VIMICRO INTL CO ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 389 0.55 214 - 0.13%

B1XG391 YINGLI GREEN ENERGY ADR CHINA USA CAYMAN ISLANDS ADR 364 0.75 273 - 0.16%

B4KR8B5 CHINA OCEAN RESOURCES CHINA KOREA HONG KONG STOCK 331 0.85 282 - 0.17%

Notes: The simulation reflects the results of the May 2015 Semi-Annual Index Review for the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes under the assumption of inclusion of foreign listed companies in the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes at the May 2015 Semi-Annual

Index Review.

• Simulated Impact of the inclusion of US listed Chinese Companies entering the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Reflects the results of the 2015 Semi-Annual Index Review for the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes under the assumption of inclusion of foreign listed companies at the May 2015 Semi-Annual. All Market Caps are in USD millions. Prices as April 20, 2015

Page 36: CHINA A PROBABLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME? - HSBC · 2015-10-20 · investment community (1) As of June 30, 2015 (2) As of March 31, 2015, as reported in June 30, 2015 by eVestment,

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