CHRISTOPHER J. BURKE

Director, API StrategyMotorola

Extreme Foresight:

Developing for THE FUTURE

Extreme Foresight AGENDA

Trends

Implications

Frameworks

Enablers

Actions

Anticipating the Future TRENDS

Switch Disintegration

Platform Products

Internetrification

No-Moore’s Law

Wireless Gold Rush

Switch Disintegration

Future networks are “smart on the edges, dumb and fast in the middle” to scale

Proprietary, centralized call and message switches become extinct

Feature-specific servers from multiple vendors and ASPs collaborate on a secure, QoS-managed, broadband internet backbone

Policy replaces architecture

Mobile SwitchingCenter (MSC)

Platform Products

Future economic efficiency of combining and adding value to off-the-shelf equipment and software

Non-customizable products become extinct or find appliance niches

Wireless communication devices and infrastructure gain advantage by being optimally customizable

Huge demand for platforms

Undifferentiated

Differentiated

CompetitivePosition

Source: “The Experience Economy”, Pine & Gilmore, 1999

Market PremiumPricing

ExtractCommodities

Make Goods

DeliverServices

StageExperiences

GuideTrans-

formations

customize

customize

customize

customize

commoditize

commoditize

commoditize

commoditize

Internetrification

Wireless grows to a $600B market by 2004

The internet grows to a multi-trillion dollar market in the same time frame

Convergence removes the wall around the wireless garden; the markets collide

The larger and more agile internet wins – eventually

Applications transcend networks

FeatureServer

GlobalInternet

Core

Operations Support System

Access Network:

Enterprise

Multi-Service Gateway /

Router Client

Operations Support Systems

FeatureServer

Access Network:Wireless

Multi-Service Gateway /

Router

Client

FeatureServer

Operations Support System

Access Network:

Cable

Multi-Service Gateway /

Router

Client

FeatureServer

Operations Support System

Access Network:

PSTN/DSL

Multi-Service Gateway /

Router

Client

Operations Support System

No-Moore’s Law

Key mobile technologies don’t double every 18 months

– Device battery capacity

– Wireless bandwidth

– Bits / dollar, Device MIPS

Wireless economics remain unlike computer industry

User dissatisfaction with cost vs benefit of some generic applications

Differentiate by optimizing

bits/sec

1

10

100

95 96 97 98 99 OO O1

Trend

Moore

NiCdNiMH

Li-Ion

Li-Poly

Relative Battery Capacity Per cm3

Wireless Gold Rush

For the first time in 20 years, wireless services prospectors are getting rich in public!

Java, WAP and MIX lower the entry barrier; investors pour into wireless Gold Country

Stakes are high enough that not everybody behaves - value trustworthy partners

Entire ecosystems flourish around the wireless services value-creation engine

Analyzing the Future IMPLICATIONS

Policy Replaces Architecture

Huge Demand for Platforms

Applications Transcend Networks

Differentiate by Optimizing

Ecosystems Flourish

Implication: POLICY

Centralized wireless system architecture determined who could offer what services

– “Architectural Control” for vendor

– “Walled Garden” for carrier

The next generation of systems enable services via network-based policies

– Open APIs and Protocols

– Business Relationships – Policies - drive Authentication, Authorization, and Accounting for value-added services

Implication: PLATFORMS

Monolithic wireless systems served a fixed, single purpose (example: “telephony”)

– Value-added / data services an afterthought

– Relatively narrow range of add-on services

The next generation of systems are architected for customization

– Business model analysis identifies critical policy boundaries and key enablers

– Enablers for specific markets are integrated via standards to create platforms

– Abundant 3rd party value-add opportunities

Implication: TRANSCENDENCE

2nd Generation Wireless technologies were in competition with each other

– Differentiation on basis of services

– Network-unique applications encouraged

The next generation of systems separate the “access network” from the “core network”

– Any mix of wired / wireless access networks reaching person, home, vehicle, work-group

– The core network is the internet

– Many future “wireless” applications are internet applications, not 3G or CDMA applications

Implication: OPTIMIZATION

Generic / internet applications operate across any combination of access networks

– Broad, highly competitive market

– User perception: some are “unusable” today due to cost / performance of wireless link

The next generation of systems support both generic and optimized applications

– Optimization creates first mover advantage(6-12 month market lead for new features)

– Demand creation

– Gateway / portal / arbitrage business model

Implication: ECOSYSTEMS

Centralized, monolithic, proprietary systems had centralized, monolithic, proprietary business models

– Key accounts

– Systems Integrators, Certified VARs

The next generation of systems succeed due to a strong, balanced network of partnerships

– Combined core competence of partners creates an unstoppable whole product

– Joint architectures and roadmaps

– Mutually-reinforcing business models

Organizing the Future FRAMEWORKS

End-User Framework

Solutions Framework

Customization Framework

End-User Framework

The Brand Compass: Motorola’s End-User Framework

– AccompliTM

brand(early adopters)

– V. TM

brand(style, status)

– TimeportTM

brand (time managers)

– TalkaboutTM

brand (keep in touch)

Motorola has a roadmap for introduction of 3rd party applications into each segment

Simplify Complexity

Amplify Human Capability

End User Framework: TOP 10 APPLICATIONS

Messaging (E-Mail, Instant and Universal)

Location Aware Services

Internet Access (Surfing, Enterprise)

Personal Information Management

Mobile Commerce - Purchases

Software Downloads

Dispatch

Portfolio Management and Banking

Wireless Media Clips (Photos, Music)

Your Visionary Applications

End User Framework: ROADMAP

Messaging

Location Aware Services

Internet Access

Personal Information Management

Mobile Commerce - Purchases

Software Downloads

Dispatch (Voice One-to-Many) -

Portfolio Management and Banking -

Wireless Media Clips

Your Visionary Applications ? ? ? ?

= strong application appeal = limited application appeal

Solutions Framework

Enablers - InfrastructureEnablers - Infrastructure Enablers - DeviceEnablers - Device

Solution Categories

Real TimeComm

Frameworks and Process for End-To-End Solution Creation and Delivery

Solution - Examples Voice

Core Needs of Consumers and Customers

End-To-End Solution Technology EnablersEnd-To-End Solution Technology Enablers

Solutions EnvironmentSolutions Environment

Enablers - ServerEnablers - Server

EmailInternetAccess

Games Taxi Home OrderInput

Group Tracking

PIM Messaging LocationRecords Mgmt

Monitor &Control

DispatchM - Commerce

InformationAccess

Entertainment

TransactionsCalendar

Applications

3rd PartyComm Svcs

3rd PartyServices

Resources

Applications

3rd PartyComm Svcs

3rd PartyServices

Resources

Customization Framework

Applications

Client

App SupportServices

CommonServices

App SupportServices

CommonServices

Applications

App Support Services

Common

Services

ApplicationServer

89

10

NetworkServices

(6) application protocol 5

3

Resources

4

CompoundDevice Support

ApplicationHosting

1

Resources Resources

7

OA&MFramework

2

Motorola’s Framework Includes 10 Customization Interfaces

operator policy boundary

Customization Framework

Mobile TerminalApplication Environment

Mobile TerminalCommunication Services

ApplicationAPI 2

API 8

Mobile Terminal

Mobile TerminalHardware Platform

kJavaEPOCWAP, etc

Soft Modems,Sierra API, etc.

TDMA, CDMA, GSM, GPRS, iDEN, 3G

Feature ServerApplication Environment

Feature ServerCommunication Services

ApplicationAPI 3

API 10

Feature Server

Feature ServerHardware Platform

Linux,Win2K,Solaris, etc.

JAIN, Parlay, etc.

Internet, Enterprise, Carrier, Person, Workgroup, Vehicle, Home

Customization Framework

API 1MobileComputer

WirelessModem

BluetoothIrDA, etc

Portal /Application

Host

ContentServer

API 5MIX APIs,ECTF, etc.

WebServer

MobileTerminal

API 6VoxML, HTML,

XML, etc

MobileTerminal

CoreNetwork

API 8

Soft Modems,Sierra API, etc.

API 9 Feature ServerNetwork

JAIN, Parlay, etc.

CoreNetwork

FeatureServer

API 10 CoreNetworkJAIN, Parlay,

etc.

Customization Framework

CustomizationInterface Application

API 1 How does the laptop or headset use the cell phone as a wireless modem?

API 2 How does a Java program written for the cell phone access the cell phone’sresources and built-in features?

API 3 How does an application on an AspiraTM Feature Server access feature serverresources and built-in features?

API 4 How does an element of the Aspira TM network communicate with other Aspira TM

network elements?API 5 How does a 3rd party application associate itself with the Aspira TM Mobile Portal?

API 6 How do the client and server parts of an application communicate end-to-end?

API 7 How is the entire system managed and provisioned?

API 8 How does an execution environment like WAP or JVM access the communicationcapabilities of the cell phone?

API 9 How does an Aspira TM built-in network application access the Aspira TM network’sresources and built-in features?

API 10 How does an Aspira TM Feature Server access the Aspira TM network’s resources andbuilt-in features?

Enabling the Future ENABLERS

Business Modeling

Key Technologies and Standards

Wireless Enablers: BUSINESS MODELING

For each of the the top applications, Motorola is developing:

– Descriptions of products or services provided

– Definition of policy-setting entities participating in the products and services

– Enumeration the transaction types between entities

– Identification of key enabling technologies

– Specification of API requirements for each key enabling technology

– Assessment of applicable interface standards

Universal Modeling Language (UML) lets Motorola and partners collaborate on requirements and implementation using common tools

Ongoing Motorola research

Wireless Enablers: KEY TECHNOLOGIES

Key technologies will impact developers according to the anticipatory trends and organizing frameworks

Examples:

– WAP

– VoiceXML

– Java™ Software

– GSM / GPRS / CDMA

– 3G

– SMS

– Bluetooth ™ Technology

Shaping the Future ACTIONS

“As for the Future, your task is not to foresee, but to enable it.”

Antoine de Saint-Exupery, The Wisdom of the Sands, (1948)

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