CIR DA Updates - Michigan7 2013 GJP

8/13/2019 CIR DA Updates - Michigan7 2013 GJP

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Immigration Updates – July 15

– GJP 7wk



NEG



Obama Pushing

Obama pushing immigration reformThe Daily Caller 7/8 (―Obama plans road trip to push immigration‖ July 7 2013http://dailycaller.com/2013/07/08/obama-plans-road-trip-to-push-immigration/)

President Barack Obama is heading out on the road to promote the Senate‘s immigrationrewrite bill, amid increasingly effective opposition from the Republican base. ―Obama likely will

travel in the coming months to some of the battleground states he won with the help of a robust Latino vote —possibly including Nevada,New Mexico, Colorado and Florida—to argue the economic case for passing the immigration overhaul,‖ according to a July 7 report in the

Wall Street Journal. ―He will also try to convince reticent Republican lawmakers that the GOP‘s viability as a national party with aspirations of winning back the White House is linkedto the fate of the bill,‖ said the report, which was attributed to White House officials. That goal means that Obama ispushing himself into the middle of an emerging fight between populists and business-minded immigration advocates within the GOP. O bama‘s pending road-trip marks areversal of his previously under-the-radar tactics, which helped push the far-reaching rewrite through the

Senate. All 55 Democratic Senators supported the bill, as did 14 GOP Senators. However, there‘s increasing opposition from the GOP‘s base,including Tea Party groups. That opposition helped split a bipartisan group of eight House legislators, who are now finishing to proposalsthat have similar provisions for the 11 million illegal immigrants living in the United States, yet have very different provisions for guest workers. A former member of the House‘s ―Gang of Eight,‖ Rep. Raul Labrador, warned July 7 that an immigration rewrite could wreck theGOP. ―If we don‘t do it right, politically it‘s going to be the death of the Republican Party,‖ he told NBC‘s ―Met The Press‖ Sunday show. ―If

we don‘t do it right what‘s going to happen is we‘re going to lose our base because we‘re still going to have a large number of illegalimmigrants coming into the United States,‖ he said. Also, a poorly designed bill could leave the Democrats with the ability t o win overLatino votes by offering more government benefits, he warmed.

Obama pushing CIR nowEconomic Times 7/14 ―Barack Obama urges Republicans to pass immigration bill; 240,000 Indians to benefit‖, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/nri/visa-and-immigration/barack-obama-urges-republicans-to-pass-immigration-bill-240000-indians-to-benefit/articleshow/21068887.cms, 7/14/13

US President Barack Obama has asked Americans to use all communication means toprod their Republican lawmakers to pass a landmark immigration reform

bill that would boost economy and create a pathway to citizenship for 11million illegal immigrants, including over 240,000 Indians. In his latest weekly Internet and radio address, Obama

recalled that two weeks ago, a large bipartisan majority of Senators voted to pass commonsense, comprehensive immigration reform -taking an important step towards fixing our broken immigration system once and for all. "This bill was a compromise, and neither side goteverything they wanted. But it was largely consistent with the key principles of commonsense reform that most of us in both parties have

repeatedly laid out," Obama said. "If passed, the Senate's plan would build on the historic gains we've made in border security over the pastfour years with the most aggressive border security plan in our history. "It would offer a pathway to earned citizenship for the 11 millionpeople who are in this country illegally - a pathway that includes paying penalties, learning English, and going to the end of the line behindeveryone trying to come here legally. And it would modernise our legal immigration system to make it more consistent with our values," he

said. Obama's message aired on Saturday was aimed at the Republican-controlledHouse of Representatives, which has balked at approving the bipartisan Senate bill.

Long supportive of the Senate measure, Obama and his aides have pushed the House ofRepresentatives to take up the immigration reform bill , which includes a pathway to

citizenship for 11 million undocumented immigrants and strict border security provisions. There are some 240,000 Indians in the categoryof undocumented immigrants in the US. Some House Republicans have been resistant of the Senate -approved legislation, however, sayingany pathway to citizenship amounts to amnesty. But Obama said, the US House of Representatives must act now on the immigration bill."Now the House needs to act so I can sign commonsense immigration reform into law. And if you agree, tell your Representatives that nowis the time. Call or email or post on their Facebook walls and ask them to get this done. Because together, we can grow our economy andkeep America strong for years to come," the US President said .



Will Pass

Immigration reform is moving forward – this card answers all their warrants – House and Senate are closer than most think Rubin 7/11 (Jennifer, ―Wheels Turning On Immigration – Slowly‖, The Washington Post, 7/11,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2013/07/11/wheels-turning-on-immigration-slowly/)//mm Since I reported this morning that House work on immigration reform is inching along with a long, steep road toclimb,others have discovered that immigration reform is not ―dead.‖ Well of course not. The leadership‘s statement

yesterday made clear that the House would work on its own bill, just not the Senate‘s bill. The question is not whether immigration reform is ―dead‖ but whether the House can passsomething.¶ You have to listen carefully , sometimes, to hear the nuance in HouseRepublicans’ proclamations. House leadership will say privately that a ―pathto citizenship‖ is off the table but they may get to a ―path to legalization.‖ Inpart, that means rolling out immigration reform in steps. But the Senate billdoes that since all the border security triggers are completed and 10 yearspass before anyone is getting citizenship.¶ As one Senate adviser explained, under both currentlaw and the Senate bill, nobody can just ―get citizenship.‖ It‘s something you have to apply for after you have a green cardfor at least three years. The only difference the Senate bill would make is that the new green card holders wouldn‘t have to

go home first before applying for citizenship.¶

The Housemay want to change or tighten those triggers or get a

super-duper certification, but, ultimately, it will have to devote resources and employmethods akin to those used in the Senate bill to satisfy themselves that we have control over who enters and exits the country, although the House can add in some measures, perhaps something similar to the e- Verify proposal by Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio).¶ At some point, House legislation would determine that we‘ve fixed theillegal immigration inflow as much as humanely possible. But then what? Would the House provide for deportation ofthose who came here illegally? Of course not. Would the House want background checks, fines, English fluency, etc.? Yes— just like the Senate bill. So the question will come down to what sort of status these people can obtain. Permanentresidency?¶ Presumably the point of all this would be to get the 11 million people out of the shadows. The House maydecide to grant green cards. Well, in that case those people would become like other green card holders — eligible at somepoint to apply for citizenship. Or maybe they want to come up with a different type of green card (talk about confusion).Frankly, the last thing they want to do is leave the status of these people up in the air — an open invitation for Obama to

handle their status by executive decree.¶ Frankly, as the House marches through the sameissues and the same alternatives that the Senate considered, it is notimpossible that a House bill will be different from but within shouting

distance of the Senate bill. That is what immigration reformers hope. And that is why the anti-immigration(even anti-legal-immigration) crowd wants to do nothing; but that is not happening. The wheels are slowlyturning. How smoothly the wheels turn and where they take the House remain to be seen.

Immigration reform will pass – Obama pushing and compromise possibleLiptak 7/13 (Kevin, ―Obama Evokes George W. Bush in Push for Immigration Reform,‖ CNN, 7/13/13,http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/07/13/obama-evokes-george-w-bush-in-push-for-immigration-reform/)//SR

The massive overhaul of the nation's immigration system that was approved by theSenate last month should be adopted by the House, President Barack Obama arguedSaturday . Speaking in his weekly address, Obama pointed to similar immigration changes that

were pushed by his predecessor, Republican President George W. Bush, who gave a softendorsement this week of new reform laws. 'We've been debating this issue for more than a decade – ever since

President Bush first proposed the broad outlines of immigration reform – and I think he gave a very good speech this past week expressing

his hope that a bipartisan, comprehensive bill can become law," Obama said in his address. On Wednesday, during a swearing-in ceremonyfor new American citizens, Bush said, "The laws governing the immigration system aren't

working. The system is broken." "I don't intend to get involved in the politics or the specifics of policy, but I dohope there is a positive resolution to the debate," Bush continued. "I hope during the debate

that we keep a benevolent spirit in mind. We understand the contributionsimmigrants make to our country." Bush didn't specifically mention the immigration reform efforts underway on Capitol Hill.

While the Senate measure gained bipartisan approval, the law has stalled in the GOP-co ntrolled House. Obama again calledon the House to approve the measure, saying some compromise must bepossible if he and Bush are in agreement. "If Democrats and Republicans – including President Bush and

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2013/07/11/immigration-reform-grinds-to-a-crawl/

http://www.businessinsider.com/its-alive-stop-saying-immigration-reform-is-dead-2013-7

http://washingtonexaminer.com/robert-costa-immigration-reform-not-dead-among-house-republicans/article/2532923

http://washingtonexaminer.com/robert-costa-immigration-reform-not-dead-among-house-republicans/article/2532923

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I – can agree on something, that's a pretty good place to start," he said. "Now the House needs to act so I can sign

commonsense immigration reform into law."

Will pass – has momentum – issues will be resolvedCirilli 7/7 (Kevin, ―Bush: Immigration bill has a chance to pass‖, Politico, 7/7/13,http://www.politico.com/blogs/politico-live/2013/07/bush-immigration-bill-has-a-chance-to-pass-167695.html?hp=r3)EK

Former President George W. Bush says the immigration reform bill has a chance to pass .¶

"Sometimes, it takes time for some of these complex issues to evolve. And it lookslike immigration, you know, has a chance to pass," he said in an interview aired Sunday on ABC's

"This Week." "The reason to pass immigration reform is not to bolster aRepublican Party -- it's to fix a system that's broken. Good policy yields good politics as far as

I'm concerned."¶ Last month, the Senate passed an immigration bill, but it'sunclear what will happen to the legislation in the House.¶ "It's very important to fix a broken system, to treat people with respect and have confidence in our capacity to assimilate people," Bush said. "It's a

very difficult bill to pass because there's a lotta moving parts. And the legislative process is-- can be ugly. But it lookslike they're making some progress."

Immigration reform will be a fight but it will pass

NPR 7/11 (―Some House Republicans Optimistic About Passing Immigration Reform‖,http://www.npr.org/2013/07/11/201200444/some-house-republicans-optimistic-about-passing-immigration-reform,7/11/2013)//SR

House GOP leaders are saying this about the idea of overhauling immigration policy: Let's slow it downand take it step by step. Republicans held a closed door meeting yesterday. They emerged saying they do not

want everything all rolled into one bill. That appeared to dim prospects for a comprehensive bill that passed the Senate

last month. Despite that, Democrat Chuck Schumer and Republican John McCain, two key Senators who helped craft that Senate measure, expressed optimism

this morning after a meeting with the president. Here's Senator McCain. SENATOR JOHN MCCAIN: I could have drawn youa scenario where the Republican conference, would have just said: We'renot taking up the legislation - we're not having anything to do with it. That'snot what they said. They said, we recognize the problem. We're ready to

work with the Senate in coming up with a solution. And yes, it will be difficult.

CORNISH: Joining me to talk more about this is Florida Republican Representative Mario Diaz Balart. And Congressman Diaz Balart, are you as optimistic as

Senator McCain that something might pass the House? REPRESENTATIVE MARIO DIAZ BALART: I am. I'm actually optimistic that we're going

to get a bill. You know, this is a very complicated process. And the issue itself is very complicated and very controversial. But ultimately, I think theimportant thing is that we get a bill that is a good bill; that we get a bill that fixes the broken immigration system, does it away that's enforceable and enforced. AndI ultimately think we're going to get ther e. CORNISH: And I believe you've been working with a bipartisan House group, trying to draft its own kind ofcomprehensive immigration bill. Did you win anybody over to your point of view of doing something in one big package? BALART: You know, I - to me, the issueof doing it in one big package, or doing it in smaller bits and then, eventually, you know, getting it all together - whether it's passing it all together or not - is really atactical decision. What I am concerned about is fixing what is evidently a broken immigration system. Getting there is going to be a slow process because I think

what the House is going to insist, is to make sure that we get it right. Why? Because we've been promised, for example, border security in the past and it was neverdelivered. In the past, we were promised that, it was never delivered. I think getting it right is the key. And when we get it right, I think we will pass a goodimmigration bill.

Will pass – differences between House & Senate can be worked outCanham 7/14 Canham is a Reporter for the Salt Lake Tribune (Matt, July 14, 2013, Salt Lake Tribune,http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politics/56593892-90/hatch-senate-sltrib-counting.html.csp)//AA

Washington » In the tone of a supportive father, Sen. Orrin Hatch encouraged House Republicans on

Sunday to pass immigration legislation that when merged with the Senate plan would ultimately "solve this

festering sore that exists in our country today." He was referring to the 11 million people now in the country illegally, the touchiest topic in

the immigration reform debate. "Most of them are pretty good people and they‘d like to be Americans, or at least they wou ld like to have a

job here," said Hatch, R-Utah, on ABC News‘ This Week. " We can work these problems out and I think theSenate bill goes a long way in trying to do that." But the House refuses to debate the Senate bill,

with the Republican majority deciding last week to push their own piecemeallegislation. None of those proposals so far deal with the broad legalization of the undocumented. Utah‘s three Republican

House members agreed with the move for smaller proposals that will focusfirst on border security and two of them — Reps. Jason Chaffetz and Chris Stewart — have said they oppose plans that

offer amnesty to immigrants who illegally crossed the border or overstayed a visa. Rep. Rob Bishop, R-Utah, and Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah, have not made such definitive statements on the issue, though they also haven‘t supported the Senate‘s path to citizens hip, which would take at least 13 years. Hatch was one of 14 Republicans who did back that plan, saying it ends the current "de facto amnesty" for

http://www.sltrib.com/sltrib/politics/56522822-90/immigration-senate-bill-citizenship.html.csp

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unauthorized immigrants by requiring them to register with the government, pay a fine and start paying taxes. The rift hascaused many in the political world, including people like Stewart, to take a pessimistic

view that Congress will pass a new immigration law soon. Hatch isn‘t one of them. He

believes that the Republican House could offer proposals to strengthen the Senate bill and that a conference committee of the two bodies could craft a plan thatcould ultimately become law . "I do think that our House members are going to take this as a very serious challenge

and quite frankly I‘m counting on them," he said on the program. "Let me tell you something, I‘m counting on the House. I‘m counting onthe House making [the Senate bill] even better, I‘m counting on the House that we can‘t just continue on with this de facto a mnesty." This Week host George Stephanopoulos also asked Hatch, who appeared on a panel with three other members of Congress, about the GeorgeZimmerman trial, which ended in an acquittal on Saturday. Hatch, like other panelists, encouraged a broader discussion of race relationsstemming from the case where Zimmerman shot and k illed Trayvon Martin, but he agreed with the jury‘s verdict in the self -defense case."There was plenty of reasonable doubt there," said Hatch, an attorney and a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee. "At least from all I watched, it seems to me that it was an accurate verdict."

Will pass – bipartisan signals coming from House Walsh & Cohen 7/11Deirdre & Tom, House GOP split on immigration reform, http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/10/politics/immigration-reform At the same time, House GOP leaders made clear they intended to slow the process down by tackling individualcomponents of the broad measure passed by the Democratic-led Senate last month with bipartisan support.¶ That meanstaking up smaller bills on specific provisions, such as border security and employment verification measures, in comingmonths while also seeking a compromise within the caucus on providing legal status for undocumented immigrants.¶

House Speaker John Boehner warned his caucus that Republicans would face

political attacks if they failed to move legislation, according to several GOPsources in the room.¶ "We don't want the White House to hope that we fail to make it a campaign issue," said GOPRep. Michael McCaul of Texas. "House Republicans want to do this on our terms, and not on the Senate's terms and not

on the White House terms."¶ Another prominent House GOP leader, Budget Committee Chairman Rep. Paul Ryan

of Wisconsin, told his colleagues that doing nothing was not an option.¶ The

unsuccessful Republican vice presidential nominee in last year's election, Ryan made the case alsopushed by the White House that immigration reform would help boost the

American economy , participants said.¶ Meanwhile, a group of bipartisan Houselegislators trying to draft its own immigration measure met for severalhours on Tuesday night and would continue its work, said Democratic Rep. Xavier Becerra of California.¶ Thegroup is working on a comprehensive bill closer in form to the Senatemeasure and Becerra argued the incremental approach advocated by House Republicans wouldn't work.

CIR will pass – House leadership negotiating a comprehensive bill nowMatthews 7/14 Laura, Immigration reform 2013: House comprehensive bill to come ‘at some point’ ,http://www.ibtimes.com/immigration-reform-2013-house-comprehensive-bill-come-some-point-1344899#Though the chances of a 2013 immigration reform bill passing Congress seem to be going the way of gun control for now,

some Republicans in the House are refusing to call it quits just yet, saying acomprehensive bill will come ―at some point.‖¶ Those are the words of Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla.,

a member of the leadership, who said it‘s no surprise to him that the Senate-passed bill, which contains a

path to citizenship and a doubling of border patrol agents, will not make it to the House floor. Cole, speaking on ABC‘s

―This Week,‖ nevertheless commended the Senate’s ―Gang of Eight‖ bipartisanlawmakers for producing ―decent‖ legislation.¶ ―Now on our side, we have opted for the

individual approach, but there’s also negotiations going on between our own individualGang of Seven for a larger, more comprehensive bill ,‖ Cole added. ―We‘ll see that at somepoint.‖¶ The House ―Gang of Seven‖ has been working on a comprehensive bill for about four years.

Immigration reform will pass but it will be a tough fightNevarez 7/5Griselda, Immigration reform advocates prepare for the tough road ahead,http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/05/immigration-reform-advocates_n_3550153.html

It‘s going to be tough but doable. That’s how immigration reform advocatesdescribe the road ahead to pass an immigration reform bill in the Republican-led

House of Representatives.¶ ― We’re going to need to persuade a lot more conservatives toget on board and support immigration reform—that‘s going to be the tough part, but it’s doable,‖ said KicaMatos, spokesperson for the Fair Immigration Reform Movement (FIRM), a coalition of immigrant rights groups spread

http://www.fairimmigration.org/

http://www.fairimmigration.org/



across 30 states.¶ Matos said it‘s doable because so much has changed since the close attempt to

pass an immigration reform bill in 2007. She said that compared to that year, the pro-immigration reform

movement is now much more strategic, better organized, bigger, strongerand more diverse.

Will pass – Boehner can get the votes

Winters 7/3Michael Sean, Congress begins Fourth of July recess with host of issues unresolved ,http://ncronline.org/news/politics/dangerously-incapable-governing The politics of immigration reform are different from other issues, however. Individual Republicanmembers of Congress may feel the need to oppose any bill that grants apathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. But they may also realize that ifthey block immigration reform, no Republican will win the White House inthe near future. Last year, Barack Obama took 71 percent of the Latino vote to Mitt Romney's 27 percent, andLatinos are the fastest-growing demographic in the electorate. If the 2012 electorate had the racial characteristics of the2000 electorate, Romney probably could have won. In 2016, the electorate will include even more Latinos and other

minorities, not fewer. Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, who is Catholic, will ultimately decide if he wants to bring an immigration bill to the floor even if it lacks the support ofa majority of his caucus. "What will matter is not how many Republican

votes [Boehner] gets but whether a majority of his caucus quietly decidesthat passing immigration reform is better for the party than blocking it is ,"E.J. Dionne wrote in The Washington Post . "Many in such a majority might actually voteagainst a bill they privately want to see enacted. By doing so, they could satisfy their base voters back home while getting the immigration issue off the political agenda and ending the GOP's cold war with Latino

voters." Republican House members could avoid facing a primary challengefrom their right because they vote against reform, while allowing Boehner to pass it withmostly Democratic votes could save the GOP's chances in national elections, too.



---AT Passage Inevitable - Hispanic Vote

House Republicans are more worried about short-term tea party backlashthan the Latino voteKelly 7/10(Erin, 7/10/2013, Washington Bureau Reporter, ―U.S. House tackles immigration-reform issue‖ AZ Central,http://www.azcentral.com/news/politics/articles/20130709house-tackles-migrant-issue.html)//SG

Analysts say the passage of immigration-reform legislation hinges on whether supporterscan convince GOP House members that voting for a path to citizenship will help thempolitically more than it will hurt them. ―In the short term, Republicans don‘t need to pass comprehensiveimmigration reform to keep control of the House,‖ said Stephen Yale-Loehr, an immigration expert and professor atCornell University Law School. ―But for their long-term national strategy, they‘d be better off passing it and vying for thehearts and minds of the new citizens it creates.‖ Obama, a Democrat, won re-election in 2012 in part by winning 71

percent of the Hispanic vote. By 2060, almost one in three U.S. residents will be Hispanic,

according to U.S. Census Bureau projections. While Republican leaders fret about losing national andsome statewide elections if they don‘t capture more of the Latino vote, most rank -and-file House Republicans are more concerned about the prospect of facing GOP primarychallenges from tea-party conservatives if they look soft on illegal immigration, analysts said.

―If you‘re a House Republican, you‘re not focusing on your party‘s future, you‘re focusingon your own re-election next year,‖ said Jack Pitney, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College in

Southern California. ―It makes the long-term argument for immigration reform a tough sell.‖

Hispanic vote does not ensure passageSalvanto 7-13 (Anthony Salvanto, Writer for CBS News, July 13, 2013. ―Why immigration Reform Faces an UphillBattle in the House.‖ http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57593521/why-immigration-reform-faces-an-uphillbattle-in-the-house/)//NR We haven't seen any polling on this, but we'd wager that few Americans outside D.C. know what the "Hastert Rule" is. And who could blame them? It isn't even a written rule. But it does help highlight the pressures in the Republican conferenceright now as it wrangles with immigration reform, and the way Congress operates in this new era. When they assembledthis week to map out their approach, House Republicans made clear they won't be taking up the Senate's "gang of eight" bill because not all House GOP members support it. Many expressed principled disagreement with the policy; still otherssaid they were skeptical that the Senate bill's plan for border enforcement - which they prioritize - would really happen.Dim prospects for comprehensive immigration bill in House McCain, Schumer put positive spin on House immigration

plans Many national Republicans see an immigration measure as a step toward making inroads with Hispanic voters, whohave growing clout and have voted overwhelmingly Democratic. But House members' political calculus can be - by design - very different from the Senate's, and probably from those looking to steer the national party's "brand." The thought of

primaries or voter anger back home might outweigh the allure of any gainsfor the national party from appealing to Hispanic voters (or, at least, by not continuingto do things unappealing to Hispanic voters). On "Face the Nation" two weeks ago, host Bob Schieffer pointed out theconservative and non-minority composition of many GOP districts, adding he's "noticed over the years that whenpoliticians of either party are given the choice between personal survival and party survival, they usually choose personal."

Republicans' districts average just 10 percent Hispanic voting age population. (By

contrast, Democrats' districts average more than twice that, on average.) There simply aren't manyHispanic voters for many of these members to appeal to. Here's the kicker: even the handful of GOP districts thatdo have a sizeable Hispanic share (greater than 20 percent) are not even swing districts. They have a CBS average partisanrating of +9 so Republicans don't usually need the Hispanic voters in them, anyway. All told, this is only 14 percent of theirconference, or 32 seats. There are some - particularly in Texas, California, and perhaps Florida - where a GOP Housemember might breathe a little easier if they got more of the Hispanic vote, but those are not numerous enough that those

members can force the conference. No one is saying the House can't pass immigration reform. The question is: Can it passsomething with a path to citizenship for those immigrants in the country illegally, which is a requirement of the SenateDemocrats and the president?



AFF



Won’t Pass

CIR won’t pass due to House opposition – the bill is all but deadBierman 7/15Noah, Hope for broad action on immigration dims,

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2013/07/14/immigration-law-supporters-clinging-hopes-that-overhaul-will-not-die-congress/ARpXDadkhQol3Jafrr9xAP/story.html WASHINGTON — Of the issues deemed most likely to break through congressional sclerosis this year, immigration policy

overhaul once topped the list. But now a comprehensive Senate plan that passed with bipartisan support is dead in the House, casting serious doubt on furtheraction on one of the nation‘s most vexing issues.¶ House conservatives have balked, saying theSenate version is too ambitious and too lenient.¶ Sunday, several Republican and Democratic lawmakers took to talkshows in an effort to revive the issue, expressing hope that the House Republican plan to split the bill into pieces cansomehow keep the debate going long enough to bring disparate lawmakers together.¶ ―I don‘t think it‘s dead,‖ said SenatorOrrin Hatch of Utah, one of 14 Republicans to back the bill, on ABC‘s ―This Week.‖ ―I do think that our House membersare going to take this as a very serious challenge, and frankly, I‘m counting on them¶ Representative Mike Kelly, aRepublican of Pennsylvania, promised on CBS‘s ―Face the Nation‘‘ that House Republicans would eventually produce―something that makes sense for the American people.‖¶ ―If we can‘t do that, then shame on us,‖ Kelly said.¶ ManyRepublican leaders have worried that conservatives‘ opposition to comprehensive immigration legislation will give theparty an ―anti-immigrant‖ reputation, one that could undermine its bid to regain the White House. But to their deep

consternation, many House conservatives are resolute in their opposition to theSenate plan.¶ ―Leaders of the party were not elected. We were. And we’re listening to our constituents,‖ said Representative Jim Sensenbrenner, a Wisconsin Republican,

emerging from a closed-door meeting last week, where the GOP caucus aired its differences on the issue.¶ ManyHouse Republicans object to a path to citizenship for 11 million illegal immigrants. Theyoppose greater authority for the president over border security. And theysee the immigration bill as too sweeping, in the same category of big-government solution as President Obama’s health care law .¶ The Senate bill affects nearlyevery segment of immigration law. It includes an enforcement plan that adds $46 billion for a border security ―surge,‖ boosts the number of work visas, and increases employment verification.¶ A 13-year path to citizenship is at the

legislation‘s core — and also at the core of conservatives‘ opposition.¶ Supporters of the overhaul arenow grasping at anything to keep the bill from dying, hoping that pleas delivered during araucous closed-door meeting last week from House leaders to rank-and-file members to at least engage in the issue willrescue it. They argue that doing nothing about the 11 million illegal immigrants amounts to de facto amnesty, leaving an

entire class of people to operate in the shadows of American society.



---Multiple Reasons

Won’t pass – five reasonsSilverlieb and Cohen 7/12 – (Alan, Tom, ―Five reasons immigration reform isn't close to the finish line‖,CNN, 7/12/13, http://www.cnn.com/2013/07/11/politics/immigration-reform-5-things/index.html) EK

Two weeks ago, the Senate passed a comprehensive immigration reform bill on a 68-32 vote, with 14 Republicans joiningthe Democratic majority to send the measure drafted by a bipartisan "Gang of Eight" to the GOP-controlled House.¶

President Barack Obama pushed for the House to quickly take up the measure that would provide a path to citizenship for 11 million immigrants living illegallyin the country while bolstering security along the Mexican border .¶ The proposalalso includes stronger worker eligibility verification standards and overall border entry-exit controls.¶ However, House

Republicans made clear Wednesday they opposed the comprehensive approachof the Senate and intended to consider the issue in a series of bills that willtake months to reach final votes.¶ In addition, the House GOP caucus was deeply divided on thequestion of eventual citizenship for undocumented immigrants, with some calling for a path to legal status while others

opposed any kind of what they labeled amnesty for those who broke the law.¶ While House leaders warned the party faced political harm if it failed to act on immigrationlegislation, a vital issue for Hispanic Americans who comprise the nation's largest minority demographic, the

piecemeal approach and divisions over the legalization issue portend amessy and uncertain future for the issue.¶ Here are five reasons why:¶

Bipartisanship necessary in Senate, not the House.¶ A 60-vote majority is needed to push

major legislation through the 100-member Senate, which means Senate Democrats and Republicans usually have to work

together to get anything substantive accomplished.¶ The House, however, does not often require such

a super-majority . As long as a simple majority sticks together, it can do virtually anything it pleases.¶ Mixthat rule with increasing ideological orthodoxy and a decreasing willingnessto compromise -- particularly within the conservative ranks of the majority House GOP -- and you havea recipe for stalemate with the Democratic-controlled Senate.¶ "Passing any version of the Gang of Eight's bill would be worse public policy than passing nothing," conservative pundits Bill Kristol and Rich Lowry argued Tuesday inNational Review Online. "House Republicans can do the country a service by putting a stake through its heart."¶ In today'shyper-partisan political climate, doing nothing is the easiest path for House Republicans to take and even a bragging pointfor tea party conservatives who came to Washington to shake up the status quo.¶ While moderate House GOP leaders callfor passing some kind of immigration legislation to avoid a potential political backlash, conservatives in the rank-and-file

say such fears are unfounded as voters will reward Republicans for opposing what they call a bad Senate bill.¶

Republicans don't trust Obama on border security .¶ Kansas Rep. Tim Huelskamp

might have said it best. The two-term conservative Republican tweeted Wednesday that "trusting Obama(with) border security is like trusting Bill Clinton (with) your daughter ."¶ Ouch.¶ Virtually every congressional Republican says the Mexican border needs to be properly enforced before Democrats gettheir priority -- a path to citizenship for America's 11 million undocumented residents. Sens. Bob Corker, R-Tennessee,and John Hoeven, R-North Dakota, added billions for Mexican border security to the "Gang of Eight" bill.¶ For a lot ofRepublicans, though, the issue involves trust, not money. They remember the last major immigration reform effort, in1986 under GOP President Ronald Reagan, that also called for tightened immigration controls while giving three millionundocumented immigrants legal status.¶ They say the amnesty occurred but the tougher border controls didn't, leading tothe much-worse situation today.¶ Now they don't trust Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano to secure the border. They also claim Obama's recent decision to delay implementation of part of health care reform showed theadministration can't be counted on to fully enforce any law.¶ By taking a piecemeal approach, House Republicans hope tosecure the tougher border security they seek before acting on a separate plan that could provide legal status for at leastsome undocumented immigrants.¶ In short, pass a border security bill now, and then come back to the legalization issue

once everyone agrees the border is sealed. Democrats reject such an approach.¶ The conundrum ofcitizenship/legalization ¶ While the Senate measure provides a multi-year path to citizenship for most

undocumented immigrants, House Republicans made clear Wednesday they remained split about 50-50 on the matter.¶

Reasons for opposing any kind of legalization range from punishinglawbreakers to political protectionism, with conservatives fearing that mostimmigrants given what they call amnesty and the eventual right to vote willlean Democratic.¶ However, the issue of legalizing immigrants is broad and complex,creating lots of uncertainty .¶ For example, the Senate bill would automatically give immigrants livingillegally in the United States temporary legal status as "registered provisional immigrants." Only when certain border



security steps had been taken could they apply for permanent residency, or green cards, as a step toward potentialcitizenship in process that would take more than a decade.¶ Many House Republicans made clear they don't want any kindof legal status for undocumented immigrants until the borders are secure. Even those open to legalization don't want it toinclude a path to full citizenship.¶ The labels and definitions of legal status will be a major sticking point in the continuingdebate, but also could be a source of compromise.¶ House Majority Leader Eric Cantor of Virginia told Wednesday's GOPcaucus meeting that children of undocumented immigrants brought illegally to America through no fault of their ownshould be provided a path to legal status, a position strongly favored by Democrats.¶ The backing of Cantor and otherHouse Republicans for such a provision showed room for maneuvering exists.¶ After meeting with Obama at the White

House on Thursday, GOP Sen. John McCain of Arizona called on House Republicans to negotiate an immigration bill.¶"We are ready to sit down with you and negotiate and bring this issue to a conclusion," said McCain, part of the bipartisan

Senate "Gang of Eight."¶ Sweeping reform isn't popular with GOP in either chamber.¶

There may be more Senate GOP support for comprehensive immigrationreform, but not that much. Only 14 of 46 GOP senators backed the "Gang ofEight" bill heralded in its creation as a triumph of bipartisanship in a sharply divided Congress. Why should HouseRepublicans be more in favor?¶ Remember that all politics is still local -- especially in the House. Many House Republicansrepresent ruby red districts with few Hispanics, where any path to citizenship is unpopular and the big fear is a primary

challenge from the right.¶ Which leads us to ...¶ The Hastert rule ¶ House Speaker John Boehner has

made clear that the House will only take up immigration reform that is backed by a majority of its Republican members. That is keeping with themaxim of former House Speaker Dennis Hastert that prevented votes onlegislation that lacked strong support from the controlling party .¶ Democrats

contend the Senate version would pass the House with a few dozen Republicans joining them to overcome opposition bymost of the GOP caucus.¶ While it is unclear if that's true, permitting it to happen would antagonize many of Boehner'sfellow Republicans.¶ "If the speaker allows a vote on any immigration bill that results in passage despite a majority of theRepublican conference voting against it, then it will be interesting to see if he can muster the votes to get re-elected afterthe next election," Alabama GOP Rep. Mo Brooks recently told CNN.

GOP won’t pass CIR – 3 reasonsCooper 7/10[Adom Cooper, Child Marriage Initiative Consultant at United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) & Contributor to PolicyMic, 7/10/2013, ―Immigration Reform 2013: 3 Reasons House GOPers Feel No Pressure to Act‖ Policy Mic,http://www.policymic.com/articles/53523/immigration-reform-2013-3-reasons-house-gopers-feel-no-pressure-to-act)//SG

While Congress decides how to proceed on the newest, highly debatable immigration bill, House Republicans aresitting rather pretty, with no substantial incentive or pressure to act. Demographics are changingin the United States, and as the Latino community becomes the majority, it will begin to command legislative efforts,

including immigration reform. Even so, there are several reasons House Republicans do not believeit is in the country‘s best interests to ensure that a comprehensive bill gets passed at this

time. 1. Little public demand, especially for agreed upon provisions of the bill Let‘s face it. U.S.

citizens are not lining up in revolutionary formations to ensure that an immigration bill gets through

Congress. Yes, some Americans are concerned that the border with Mexico is inadequately secured, and

believe the immigration system is broken and needs fixing. But there is no pressing reason to implement aconcrete and comprehensive path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. The public ispreoccupied with unemployment numbers, marriage equality, NSA security leaks (and a fugitive on the run), student-loan

rate increases, the Trayvon Martin case, and the developing situation in Egypt. House Republicans are awareof this, and see no reason to try and add another issue to the mix. House Republicans are torn between voting for a bill that could hurt them in districts dominated by white voters, and alienating the Latinocommunity, which largely voted against the party in the 2012 presidential election. The country appears to be split on theimmigration issue, including the question of how to best secure the border. Until the public decides which immigrationissues need to be taken care of, and galvanizes support for specific solutions (taking a cue from the gay marriage

campaign), House Republicans can play the waiting game. 2. The economy It is no secret

that the U.S. economy is struggling. Although recent job numbers are encouraging, the long-term effects of

the economic downturn will last far longer than anyone expected. Immigration legislation like the DREAM Act affects the economy. If more individuals become U.S. citizens, it is inevitable thatmany of them will not find employment in the struggling economy, leading to an increase inunemployment benefit applications. And those who do secure employment will partake in the costly benefits of living in

the United States, such as Medicare and Social Security. This would divert resources away from currentU.S. citizens, causing further resentment for immigrants. Given the economic environment – and a



bunker mentality focused keeping America "America" – it does not make sense for House Republicansto provide a legitimate path to citizenship for millions of illegal immigrants, rather than

focusing on creating and stabilizing employment for current U.S. citizens. 3. The Affordable Care Act

From the start, Republicans have had a vendetta against the Affordable Care Act.

Eliminating President Barack Obama‘s universal health care program will always be onthe agenda for House Republicans. When the bill was signed into law in 2010, Republicans viewed it as a

significant defeat, and the achievement certainly helped Obama‘s 2012 campaign. House Republicans do not wish to sufferanother significant legislative defeat, especially with regard to a topic so important to demographics. They will continue to

fight the provisions of the Affordable Care Act until there are none left to haggle over. Once the Act is part ofU.S. policy, and beyond debate and scrutiny, Republicans might focus on acomprehensive immigration bill. Politically, there is nothing to gain and everything to lose from challengingthe Democrats plans for immigration. It behooves House Republicans to thoroughly attack the Affordable Care Act beforeturning their attention to debating a comprehensive immigration bill.



---No Momentum

CIR won’t pass the House – momentum is swinging decidedly against a dealand Republicans don’t think it will be electorally beneficial Lee 7/9 (Tony, journalist for Breitbart news, RIP: POLITICO CONCEDES IMMIGRATION REFORM WILL DIE IN

HOUSE, Breitbart News, July 7 2013, http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2013/07/09/RIP-Politico-Concedes-Immigration-Reform-Will-Die-Slowly-in-House)//JB Immigration reform will wither and die slowly in the House. So says Politico,the paper that keeps score for the company town that is Washington, D.C. ¶ As Republican House Members get ready tomeet on Wednesday to discuss immigration issues, Politico reporters Mike Allen and Jim Vandehei reported that

"Republicans on Capitol Hill now predict comprehensive immigration reform will die a

slow, months-long death in the House." They write that passing a pathway to citizenshipnow "looks like a pipe-dream."¶ According to Politico, House Republicans are not likely to

support "comprehensive immigration reform" because they represent districts with few Hispanic voters, do not believe such a bill will be an electoral panacea in getting theHispanic vote, and think "they will look like fools" if they trust President Barack

Obama— who recently decided to delay implementation of his signature Obamacare legislation—to enforcetough border security measures conservatives will demand in any bill. ¶ Rep. Tom Cotton (R-AK) told

the publication that his constituents have warned him to stay "clear of anything remotely resembling the Senate-passed bill," and they fear ―a Trojan horse in a conference committee for a package that puts legalization first and enforcement

later.‖¶ Republicans are reportedly seeing "momentum swinging decidedly againstgetting a deal this Congress," while "private GOP head-counts show only a smallfraction of House Republicans" would even vote for a bill.¶ Lawmakers like Rep. SteveKing (R-IA) have argued that the Senate's immigration bill, as the Congressional Budget Office estimated, would lower wages for working class Americans and raise the unemployment rate while benefiting ―elites who want cheap labor,Democratic power brokers, and those who hire illegal labor.‖¶ A Center for Immigration Studies report recently found that

all of the net gains in employment over the last 13 years went to foreign-born workers. Conservative leaders

like former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Sen. Jeff Sessions, Rush Limbaugh, and Michelle Malkin have insisted thatthe Senate's immigration bill would make things worse, devastating workingclass Americans of all races, ages, and education levels while doing nothingabout border security. ¶ Politico, the purveyor of Washington's conventional wisdom, could not conceivemonths ago that there would be fierce opposition among Republicans to "comprehensive immigration reform." And on

Tuesday, two prominent center-right publications—National Review and The Weekly Standard— wrote a joint editorialgoing all-in against the bill.¶ Even when acknowledging that immigration reform is likely to fail, though, Politico stillrevisits some of the D.C. talking points in favor of the bill.¶ Politico asserts that Republicans are "hell-bent" on worseningtheir "problems" with the Hispanics by not passing a sweeping immigration reform bill. They write that this is driving "theRubio and Roves of the world nuts," and "a large number of establishment Republicans think their party will seal defeat in

2016 if it cannot move beyond this issue." Yet, they also write that even if Republicans "listen toRubio and Paul Ryan" and "ultimately agree to something Democrats could live with," Republicans

will not get credit from Hispanics. ¶ Republicans who have championedimmigration reform, though, have indeed have not been getting credit fromHispanics. For instance, Rubio's poll numbers among Hispanics have plummeted. ¶ Allen and Vandehei quoted a"GOP leadership aide" in the Senate who explained to them why the immigration bill, contrary to what most of the D.C.political class think, will not instantaneously turn Hispanics into Republicans. The aide said just like George W. Bush'sprescription drug benefit, which conservatives hated, did not "fundamentally alter the way seniors" related to

Republicans, the immigration bill will not get Hispanics to magically vote for

Republicans.¶ "The only way you get that is with the candidate, like Ronald Reagan with blue-collar voters," the

aide argued.

Won’t pass – momentum has stalled Alberta 7/14 (Tim, ―How Momentum for Comprehensive Immigration Reform Collapsed in the House,‖ NationalJournal, 7/14/13, http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/how-momentum-for-comprehensive-immigration-reform-collapsed-in-the-house-20130714)//SR

What a difference one month makes. It wasn't that long ago—June 5, in fact—that conservatives in the

House of Representatives were pushing the panic button, convinced that the momentum behind

comprehensive immigration reform was becoming irreversible. They had watched with horror as



the Gang of Eight bill, which included a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, sped through theSenate. And on this day, at a special immigration summit hosted by the Republican Study Committee, they sawmembers of their own chamber—some longtime opponents of "amnesty"—coming around to the case for

comprehensive immigration reform, and agreeing with GOP senators that Republicans mustact quickly to address what had become both a policy dilemma and political nightmare. It looked awfully bleak for thelikes of Iowa Rep. Steve King, who emerged from that meeting red in the face and wondering aloud whether his fellowconservatives had lost their nerve -- if not their minds. He marveled at how "so many otherwise smart people" in his

chamber were being seduced by Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. He described that immigration summit, and the supposedideological shift among his colleagues, as "surreal." To King, the writing was on the wall: TheHouse was going to pass some form of comprehensive immigration reform, and probably sooner rather

than later. But by July 10, everything had changed. Emerging from a conference-wide immigration

meeting, King and his newly vocal band of conservative comrades were floating. After convening for more than twohours to plot the path forward on immigration reform, members were still not entirely sure what the

House approach would be. But this much they knew: The Senate bill was, as Speaker John Boehner said

without equivocation, "dead on arrival." The House would act, the speaker vowed. But it would not followthe Senate. There would be no comprehensive package. There would be no rush toapprove legislation this year. And, in all likelihood, there would be no path to citizenship. How didthe dynamic shift so quickly? It began with an exasperated, wits-end King on June 6. One day removed from the RSCsummit, King began visiting his colleagues—the same ones who were silent during that meeting—and asking for theirsignatures to force another gathering. This one would be longer and more thorough, he told them, involving the entireconference. Soon he had collected the 50 signatures needed to trigger what he and other lawmakers would later describe

as a "family meeting." On June 12, a week after King launched his petition drive, Boehner's leadership team

scheduled a July 10 special conference meeting to discuss immigration. (Leadership aides insist Boehner had

long been planning such a session.) With less than one month to organize the opposition, King went to work. Hechecked back with the conservative members who had signed his petition, asking them to attend an "anti-amnesty" rallythe following Wednesday on the East Lawn of the Capitol. King wanted to bring his coalition out of the shadows, andperhaps even more, he wanted the grassroots opposition that was simmering beneath the political surface to be seen from

the windows of the Capitol Building. As King strategized behind the scenes, Boehner began feeling the heat inpublic. On June 17, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, R-Calif., told a radio show that Boehner "should be removed as speaker" ifhe brought an immigration bill to the floor without the support of a majority of House Republicans, a violation of the so-called "Hastert Rule." At a conference meeting the next day, Boehner promised his members that he would do no suchthing. He also emphasized that immigration proceedings would go through regular order, with House JudiciaryCommittee Chairman Bob Goodlatte, R-Va., working through a series of single-issue bills. Speaking to reporters later that

day, Boehner publicly repeated his promise, saying, "I don't see any way of bringing an immigration bill to

the floor that doesn't have a majority support of Republicans." Feeling a sudden surge ofmomentum, King prepared to capitalize on Boehner's pledge. The next afternoon, conservative activists swarmed around amakeshift stage on the Capitol lawn, listening as King and his chorus of conservative allies railed against "amnesty" forillegal immigrants and begged House Republicans to reject the Senate bill, which was on track to pass in the coming week.Energized by the swollen crowd of activists, King took the stage and cried: "I can feel it! I can feel we're going to defend therule of law! We're going to defend the Constitution! We're going to defend our way of life!" The momentum, King said, was

shifting in front of Washington's eyes. The camps were becoming clearer, King told National Journal during

the rally. "But," he added, "ours is getting bigger." As the tension intensified outside the Capitol, lawmakersalso felt the pressure up close. Twice that week, the Heritage Foundation's Robert Rector— who had co-authored theorganization's controversial study on comprehensive immigration reform—headlined private policy forums for membersof the House GOP. Sparring with the CATO Institute's Alex Nowrasteh, his ideological counterpart, Rector did at thosemeetings what he had done for months in private visits with lawmakers: Lobby them against any comprehensive bill. Thefollowing Thursday, Boehner again told reporters he would not bring any immigration bill up for a vote unless it hadmajority support. But this time, the pledge included any House-Senate compromise that could be ironed out in aconference committee. The speaker had now made it unequivocal: Either immigration reform would pass in a mannerpleasing to his House majority, or it would not pass at all. There would be no back-door deal with the Senate. Hours later,

the Senate passed its bill on a 68-32 vote, with 14 Republicans joining a unanimous Democratic caucus. The responsefrom across the Capitol erased any doubt about the House's willingness to follow suit. Boehner released a statementsaying, "The House is not going to take up and vote on whatever the Senate passes." The speaker reiterated that Goodlatte,an outspoken proponent of incremental legislation, would continue with regular order, and that the House would focus on"real border security." Rank-and-file members were not as passive. King called the Senate triumph "a meaninglesspolitical trophy." Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann said it amounted to "amnesty now, border security never." It wasn't just the hardliners, either. Alabama Rep. Martha Roby, not known as a firebrand, called the Senate bill a "monstrosity."

The House Republican Conference, having opened itself to modulating on immigration following Mitt

Romney's drubbing among Hispanics the previous November, had hardened its position once more. Whenthe July 10 summit arrived, House Republicans were ready. Having recently returned from their districts, where theyheard from constituents about immigration over the Fourth of July recess, lawmakers had specific expectations for the



meeting. In interviews with more than a dozen members prior to the immigration summit, there was remarkableconsensus. On the policy side, they wanted leadership to focus on border security now and everything else later. And onthe process side, they wanted a renewed commitment to a slow, incremental approach that unhurriedly tackled one issueat a time. If those expectations were met, members said, the meeting would go fine. By five-thirty that afternoon, thetransformation was complete. Emerging from the same room he had one month earlier, King looked like a changed man. As his conservative comrades met with reporters to share their satisfaction with the meeting—and declare victory for "therule of law" in America—the Iowa lawmaker hung back, savoring the scene. King didn't need to be quoted. His smile said itall.



---House Republicans

CIR won’t pass this year – too many GOP objectionsBrooks 7/11 (David, New York Times researcher and journalist, Pass the Bill!, New York Times, July 11 2013,http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/12/opinion/brooks-pass-the-bill.html?_r=0)//JB

It‘s beginning to look as though we’re not going to get an immigration reform law this year.House Republicans are moving in a direction that will probably beunacceptable to the Senate majority and the White House. Conservativecommentators like my friends Bill Kristol and Rich Lowry are arguing that the status quo is

better than the comprehensive approach passed by the Senate. The wholeeffort is in peril.¶ This could be a tragedy for the country and political suicide for Republicans, especially becausethe conservative arguments against the comprehensive approach are not compelling.¶ After all, the Senate bill fulfills thefour biggest conservative objectives. Conservatives say they want economic growth. The Senate immigration bill is the biggest pro-growth item on the agenda today. Based on estimates from the Congressional Budget Office, the Senate bill would increase the gross domestic product by 3.3 percent by 2023 and by 5.4 percent by 2033. A separate study by the American Action Forum found that it would increase per capita income by $1,700 after 10 years.¶ Conservatives say they want to bring down debt. According to government estimates, the Senate bill would reduce federal deficits by up to $850 billion over the next 20 years. The Senate bill reduces the 75-year Social Security fund shortfall by half-a-trillion dollars.¶ Conservatives say they want to reduce illegal immigration. The Senate bill spends huge amounts of money to secure the border. According to the C.B.O., the bill would reduce illegal immigration by somewhere between 33 percent to 50

percent. True, it would not totally eliminate illegal immigration, but it would do a lot better than current law, whichreduces illegal immigration by 0 percent.¶ Conservatives say they want to avoid a European-style demographic collapse.But without more immigrants, and the higher fertility rates they bring, that is exactly what the U.S. faces. Plus, this billradically increases the number of high-skilled immigrants. It takes millions of long-term resident families out of theshadows so they can lead more mainstream lives.¶ These are all gigantic benefits. They are like Himalayan peaks

compared with the foothill-size complaints conservatives are lodging.¶ The first conservative complaint is that, as

Kristol and Lowry put it, ―the enforcement provisions are riddled with exceptions,loopholes and waivers.‖ If Obama can waive the parts of Obamacare he finds inconvenient, why won‘t heend up waiving a requirement for the use of E-Verify.¶ There‘s some truth to this critique, and maybe the House shouldpass a version of the Senate bill that has fewer waivers and loopholes. But, at some point, this argument just becomes anexcuse to oppose every piece of legislation, ever. All legislation allows the executive branch to have some discretion. It‘salways possible to imagine ways in which a law may be distorted in violation of its intent. But if you are going to use thatlogic to oppose something, you are going to end up opposing tax reform, welfare reform, the Civil Rights Act and

everything else.¶ The second conservative complaint is that the bill would flood the country withmore low-skilled workers, driving down wages. This is an argument borrowed from the

reactionary left, and it shows. In the first place, the recent research suggests that increased immigrationdrives down wages far less than expected. Low-skilled immigrants don‘t directly compete with the nat ive-born.

They do entry-level work, create wealth and push natives into better jobs.¶ Furthermore, conservatives are not

supposed to take a static, protectionist view of economics. They‘re not supposed to believe that growth can be created or even preserved if government protects favored groups fromcompetition. Conservatives are supposed to believe in the logic of capitalism; that if you encourage the movementof goods, ideas and people, then you increase dynamism, you increase creative destruction and you end up creating more

wealth that improves lives over all.¶ The final conservative point of opposition is a politicalone. Republicans should not try to win back lower-middle-class voters withimmigration reform; they should do it with a working-class agenda.¶ Thisargument would be slightly plausible if Republicans had even a hint of such an agenda, but they don‘t. Even then it wouldfail. Before Asians, Hispanics and all the other groups can be won with economic plans, they need to feel respected andunderstood by the G.O.P. They need to feel that Republicans respect their ethnic and cultural identity. If Republicans

reject immigration reform, that will be a giant sign of disrespect, and nothing else Republicans say will even be heard.¶ Whether this bill passes or not, this country is heading toward a multiethnic future. Republicans can either shape thatfuture in a conservative direction or, as I‘ve tried to argue, they can become the receding roar of a white America that isnever coming back.¶ That‘s what‘s at stake.

Immigration reform won’t pass – Republican opposition inHouse Halloran 7/10 - joined NPR in December 2008 as Washington correspondent for Digi tal News, taking her

print journalism career into the online news world. (Liz, NPR, ―House GOP: We Won't Consider Senate ImmigrationBill‖, 7/10/13, http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2013/07/10/200860744/house-gop-we-wont-consider-senate-immigration-bill) // JA



The prospects for an immigration overhaul effort that could reshape the contours of

American society appeared grim Wednesday after a closed door meeting of House Republicans.¶ Amajority of the fractious House Republican Conference lined up in oppositionto (barely) bipartisan legislation already approved by the Democratic-controlled Senate, despite theurging of leaders to do something on the issue.¶ NPR's Tamara Keith tells us that after the meeting,

Colorado Rep. Doug Lamborn said "there's almost unanimous agreement among

the Republicans that the Senate bill is fatally flawed."¶ The Senate bill includes apath to citizenship for illegal immigrants, a provision that's anathema to the majorityof House Republicans, most of whom reside in electorally safe, predominantly

white districts.¶ California Rep. Buck McKeon, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee,said: "There was pretty strong consensus that the border has to be secured before anything else."Including a path to citizenship.¶ According to Louisiana Rep. John Fleming, House Speaker John

Boehner reassured the conference — as he has done in public and private many times before —

that he will not allow an immigration bill to pass without a majority of themajority, a practice referred to as the Hastert Rule.¶ Fleming said he trusts Boehner when he says anyimmigration bill will pass with a majority of the majority. But he still worries that the Senate could takethat bill up, modify it and then jam the House — putting pressure on them to pass something with amajority of Democrats and only a few Republicans.¶ "We control the House, we Republicans, and ourconstituents hold us accountable ... so that is our concern. We want to be sure that something like thatdoesn't happen," Fleming said. "That whatever passes out of the House has a majority of Republicansthat support it."¶ After the afternoon meeting, House leadership, including Boehner, issued this

statement:¶ "Today House Republicans affirmed that rather than take up the flawedlegislation rushed through the Senate, House committees will continue their

work on a step-by-step, common-sense approach to fixing what has long been a broken system. The American people want our border secured, our laws enforced, and the problems inour immigration system fixed to strengthen our economy. But they don't trust a Democratic-controlled Washington, and they're alarmed by the president's ongoing insistence on enacting a single, massive,Obamacare-like bill rather than pursuing a step-by-step, common-sense approach to actually fix theproblem. The president has also demonstrated he is willing to unilaterally delay or ignore significantportions of laws he himself has signed, raising concerns among Americans that this administrationcannot be trusted to deliver on its promises to secure the border and enforce laws as part of a single,massive bill like the one passed by the Senate."¶ Democratic groups have funded advertising campaignsthat target Republican House members perceived as persuadable on the immigration issue and those in

districts where Latinos represent a growing constituency.¶ But the pressure has had negligibleresults.

Won’t pass – House Republicans fear electoral consequencesChapman 7/1 Chapman is a columnist and editorial writer for the Chicago Tribune (Steve, ―Why immigration reform probably won't pass‖, http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-republicans-and-immigration-reform-20130701,0,2224811.column)//AA Sometimes, when Congress addresses an issue, there's a big fight, and once the matter is resolved, everyone pretty muchmoves on. This was the case with Bush administration's Medicare prescription drug coverage, and it was the case withPresident Obama's termination of "don't-ask-don't tell." In those cases, the risks of being wrong on the issue are minimal. Voters have other things to worry about. Obamacare is not one of those. Two years after it passed, despite PresidentObama's re-election, Republicans in Congress are still trying to repeal it, and Republican governors are still finding waysto resist implementation. It's a live issue that continues to motivate hard-line GOP voters -- unlike, say, gays in the

military. Immigration reform is likely to be the same. That's partly because the resentment ofunauthorized immigrants felt by so many GOP voters will not abate. Thoseimmigrants will still be just as visible as ever, if not more. It's also because many conservative officeholders will continueto resist letting them become citizens, while constantly faulting border enforcement efforts. Liberals, by the way, may also

push to loosen the terms for the path to citizenship. No one is going to move on very soon. No

one is going to forget how anyone voted. If you're a Republican Housemember from a solidly Republican district, voting for immigration reform isan invitation for constituents to show up at meetings in your district,

vehemently complaining. It's also an invitation for an opponent to run against you in 2014 or even 2016, blaming you for a process that will still be unfolding and still be controversial. There are good policy reasons to vote for

reform -- but in the end, the political risks to House Republicans are likely to sinkit.

http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2013/07/10/200860744/house-gop-we-wont-consider-senate-immigration-bill






---No Bipartisanship

CIR won’t pass – too many differences between House and Senate approachSherman et al. 7/11 (Jake, Seung Min Kim, John Bresnahan, ―GOP reaching out to Dems on Immigration‖,Politico, 7/11/13, http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/immigration-house-republicans-93969.html) EK

The House Republican leadership is reaching out to top House Democrats toassess their support for a piecemeal approach to immigration reform , accordingto sources involved in the discussions.¶ The House‘s immigration gameplan is to pass individual bills rather than take the

comprehensive approach advocated by the Senate. Speaker John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) team isn’t trying tocut a deal with Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), these aides caution. But deeply-dividedRepublicans want to get a read on what members of the minority party

would back when immigration reform comes to the floor.¶ The legislation underdiscussion between Republicans and Democrats includes bills reworking the employment verification system andlegislation to toughen border security, according to sources both involved in and familiar with the talks. In strategysessions and planning meetings, Republicans have said that support for immigration reform is soft among GOPlawmakers — and leadership is skeptical that there is backing for anything more drastic than border security and E-verify.¶

Moving legislation before the August recess is now almost completely out ofthe question — lawmakers are going to have to spend the month at home,

with immigration lingering.¶ These contacts are in the early stages, but the discussions are

aimed at running up big bipartisan majorities for a series of GOP-authored bills, that could counter the bipartisan Senate bill. In short, Democrats would smooth theprospects for passage.¶ Those talks with Democrats weren‘t the focus of a closed-door GOP immigration strategy meeting, which took place Wednesday in the Capitol basement. In that meeting, leadership and bold-faced Republican lawmakerstried to explain that something needs to happen — and soon.¶ Boehner called the immigration debate ―important,‖ andsaid Republicans need a plan. Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) said Republicans should present an alternative to theSenate‘s plan — just like the party did during the economic stimulus debate in 2009.¶ More than Cantor and perhaps evenBoehner, Rep. Paul Ryan (R- Wis.) is someone who is catching Republicans‘ eyes. The 2012 vice presidential nominee andHouse Budget Committee chair, who has been quietly meeting for months on immigration reform, took to the microphoneat Wednesday‘s meeting, saying that the GOP needs to tackle immigration — and now. Immigrants, he said, are important

to the country‘s economic vitality.¶ The issue might be urgent, but it won‘t be smooth. House Republicans facelogistical peril by entering into negotiations armed with small bills afterDemocrats passed a big, aggressive reform package.¶ The debate will also get lumped in

with a busy fall, at a time when Congress will be jousting over government funding and the debt limit.¶ So, if

immigration reform actually happens — far from a certainty — it seemsincreasingly likely to be tossed into a year-end rush, in a way mirroring the 2012 fiscal cliffpanic, the 2010 extension of Bush tax rates and other panicked legislating that Washington has become so accustomed to.But immigration reform will be more challenging: there is no deadline.¶ Logistics and timing are only two of the reasonsthis policy debate is challenging. The party is split in multiple directions.

No immigration reform – neither Boehner nor Democrats will budgeBeutler 7/9 (Brian Beutler, TPM's senior congressional reporter. He's led coverage of health care reform, Wall Streetreform, taxes, the GOP budget, the government shutdown fight, and the debt limit fight. ―Boehner And The Right TeamUp to Quash Immigration Reform.‖ http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/07/boehner-and-the-right-team-up-to-quash-immigration-reform.php)//NR

The already narrow path to enacting comprehensive immigration reform pretty much

disappeared in the past 24 hours. At the Capitol, House Speaker John Boehner stated a specific policy preference Tuesday

that will alienate the entire Democratic Party if he adheres to it, and thus doom thereform effort. And elsewhere in the Beltway, influential conservatives have grown moreconfident and explicit about abandoning the immigration issue, for at least a couple of

years. Taken together, it means that enacting new immigration legislation will either require

Democrats to cave on a key demand, or require Boehner to abandon his preference and break his word to his conference that he won’t move ahead without amajority of his members in support . ―It‘s clear from everything that I‘ve seen and read over the last couple of

weeks that the American people expect that we‘ll have strong border security in place before we begin the process of legalizing and fi xingour legal immigration system,‖ Boehner said outside the Capitol Monday afternoon. His spokesman Michael Steel explains that t hestatement is consistent with Boehner‘s ―long-standing emphasis on border security.‖ But it amounts to a de facto endorsement of theconservative view that any steps to legalize existing immigrants should be contingent upon implementation of draconian border policies. Asis Boehner‘s custom, it also eschews the word ―citizenship,‖ suggesting that even if Democrats agree to a trigger, he won‘t g uarantee that it



would be aimed at a full amnesty program, and, thus, eventual voting rights for immigrants already in the U.S. Senate

Majority Leader Harry Reid has called this policy formulation a ―poison pill.‖ But if conservatives get their way, we’llnever even reach the point at which Boehner or Democrats will face pressureto cave. In an op-ed for the conservative National Review, Bill Kristol and Rich Lowry called on House Republicans to ―kill the bill,‖

and to face the electorate one or two more times at least with the same problems they‘ve had with minority voters the past tw o presidentialelections. ―If Republicans take the Senate and hold the House in 2014, they will be in a much better position to pass a sensible immigration bill,‖ they write. ―At the presidential level in 2016, it would be better if Republicans won more Hispanic voters than they have in the past —

but it’s most important that the party perform better among working-class and younger voters concerned about economic opportunity and upward mobility.‖ Kristol and Lowry even advise Republicans not

to get dragged into a protracted negotiation with the Senate over comprehensive re form. Just drop the issue altogether. ―House Republicans

should make sure not to allow a conference with the Senate bill,‖ they wrote. ―House Republicans can’t find any true

common ground with that legislation. Passing any version of the Gang of Eight‘s bi ll would be worse public

policy than passing nothing. House Republicans can do the country a service by putting a stake through its heart.‖

No immigration reform – GOP wants piecemeal reform and doesn’t trust White House on border securityDumain 7/10 - covers House leadership for Roll Call. From September 2011 to May 2013, she covered Roll Call'scampus beat, where she wrote about the administration of the House and Senate, legislative branch appropriations, theCapitol Police and oversight of the District of Columbia, along with the myriad issues affecting Capitol Hill staffers andCongressional support agencies. (Emma, ―House GOP Won‘t Pursue Comprehensive Immigration Bill‖, Roll Call, 7/10/13,http://blogs.rollcall.com/goppers/house-gop-wont-pursue-comprehensive-immigration-bill/) // JA House Republicans emerged from their hotly anticipated closed-door meeting onimmigration Wednesday united against the Senate-passed bill, but no closer to anagreement on their own policies to address the controversial issue.¶ However, House GOP leaders released a

joint statement declaring that the chamber would move forward on immigration in apiecemeal fashion, rather than attempting the comprehensive approach taken by the Senate.¶ ―[We] affirmed thatrather than take up the flawed legislation rushed through the Senate, House committees will continue their work on astep-by-step, common-sense approach to fixing what has long been a broken system,‖ GOP leaders said in a joint

statement released on Wednesday evening.¶ But upon exiting the nearly two-hour meeting, lawmakers said they were no closer to setting a timetable for action, formulating a strategy or building consensus onhow to deal with a pathway to citizenship for the nation‘s roughly 11 million undocumented immigrants.¶ Lawmakers were

also intensely wary of how the process might play out in the future, saying they do not trust the WhiteHouse to enforce any border security measures nor a House-Senate conference.¶ Speaker John A. Boehner,R-Ohio, sought to allay at least one of those fears by promising that any immigration conference committee would be

convened of House Republicans reflective of the will of the chamber.¶ Still, Rep. Tom Cotton of Arkansas spoke aboutconcerns regarding how the chamber could conference on a Senate bill that is drastically different from anything that

might come out of the House.¶ ―Unless the Senate, specifically Chuck Schumer and the Democrats that drafted this

bill, relent on their insistence for legalization first, enforcement later, then I can‘t see a way to reconcile any legislation that we might pass that would focus on enforcement,‖ Cotton said.¶ In addition todoubts about working with the Senate on an immigration measure, Republicans said the White House‘s decision last weekto delay enforcement of the employer mandate of the health care law had renewed their skepticism that the president would enforce border security and employer-verification provisions championed by Republicans.¶ ―We are less likely toget an immigration bill because of the president‘s proposal last week that essentially delayed a law passed by Congress,‖said Rep. Pat Tiberi of Ohio. ―This is not the first time this has happened, but it‘s the straw that breaks the camel‘s back. How do you trust him on border security?¶ ―It would be nice to know how the administration thinks they have theauthority to do this,‖ he continued. ―I think it would begin starting the process of us having a bit more faith and trust andthem not just enforcing what they like and not enforcing what they don‘t like.‖

Won’t pass – border concerns in House and Boehner won’t bring to a vote –

AND issues like the farm bill and student loans thumpFox News 7/7[Fox News, 7/07/2013, ―Congress returns to immigration, student loans, farm bill; issues splitting Democrats,Republicans‖ http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/07/07/congress-returns-to-immigration-student-loans-farm-bill-issues-splitting/#ixzz2Z2oMmUUn)//SG

Congress returns to Washington this week to face several key issues including thefarm bill, student loans and immigration reform -- topics expected to createtension between and among Democrats and Republicans in the House and Senate. The Democrat-controlled Senate

reached a bipartisan deal late last month to pass sweeping legislation on immigration reform. But the bill facesa more uncertain future in the Republican-led House, where security along the

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2013/07/boehner-and-the-right-team-up-to-quash-immigration-reform.php


http://blogs.rollcall.com/goppers/house-gop-wont-pursue-comprehensive-immigration-bill/

http://blogs.rollcall.com/goppers/house-gop-wont-pursue-comprehensive-immigration-bill/




U.S.-Mexico border remains a major concern. The contentious issue about how secure bordersmust be before giving some of the country‘s 11 million illegal immigrants a path to citizenship resurfaced Sunday whenIdaho Republican Rep. Raul Labrador expressed his concern. Labrador, a Tea Party favorite and immigration lawyer, toldNBC‘s ―Meet the Press‖ that illegal immigration has to be cut by a ―large percentage‖ before such legislation can pass,considering a continued influx on non-citizens amid a new law would hurt the Republican base and cause Hispanics to―lose faith in us.‖ He also implied a new Congressional Budget Office report showing the final Senate bill that which would

cut illegal immigration by as much as half was not enough. Conservatives from safe House

districts have rebuffed appeals from Republicans who argue immigrationoverhaul will boost the party's political standing with Hispanics and othersin the increasingly diverse electorate, especially in the 2016 presidentialelection. However, conservatives strongly oppose any legislation offering legalization to immigrants living here

illegally. House Speaker John Boehner and other Republicans have said the Senate billis a nonstarter in their chamber. Boehner also has recently suggested he‘ll follow the

will of the chamber’s Republican majority, not the majority of Housemembers that would include Democrats, when deciding whether to call for a vote on immigration.



---Boehner

Won’t pass – Boehner won’t bring a bill to a vote unless it has Republicanmajority supportStrauss 7/11 (Daniel, ―Van Hollen: House odds for immigration bill down to ‘50-50‘‖, The Hill, 7/11/13,

http://thehill.com/video/house/310359-van-hollen-boehner-following-hastert-rule-cuts-chances-of-passing-immigration-reform) EK

Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) on Thursday said he was less optimistic about the chancesimmigration reform could pass the House, pegging those odds at ―50-50.‖¶ In an interview on

CNBC, Van Hollen said Speaker John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) decision to only push legislationthat had the support of a majority of the GOP conference made the fight tooverhaul the nation’s immigration laws much harder.¶ "That will make itmore difficult so I've taken the odds of immigration reform from what I thought was 70 percent when the Senate

bill had a lot of momentum, now I would say it's 50-50," Van Hollen said.¶ Van Hollen also said the House couldpass immigration reform today if Boehner took up the Senate bill passedlast month.¶ "We could in the House pass the bipartisan plan that came out of the Senate today if the Speaker were

willing to put that up for a vote," Van Hollen said. "There is a majority to get that done. ―Unfortunately he hastaken the position that, at least so far, that he is only going to take up immigrationreform in the House if it has , not a majority of the full House, but a majority of theRepublicans in the House, and that's a political decision, not a policy decision."¶ Boehner has said theSenate bill is dead on arrival in the House.¶ Van Hollen's comments came a day after House Republicans held a closed-door meeting to discuss the path forward on immigration reform. In the meeting, Boehner and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.)told their House colleagues that not passing immigration reform would put their conference "in a much weaker position,"urging them to act.¶ Conservative House lawmakers oppose efforts to create a path to citizenship for illegal immigrantsalready in the country and want more of a focus on border security.

Immigration reform won’t pass – Boehner can’t persuade enough of hisparty

Ambinder 7/11 (Marc, ―Why Immigration Reform (Probably) Never Had A Chance‖, The Week, 7/11,http://theweek.com/article/index/246797/why-immigration-reform-probably-never-had-a-chance)//mm This is not an "I Told You So." It was apparent fairly quickly that while the external political pressure on Republicans topass immigration reform increased dramatically after the last election, the forces that hold the party together haven't

abated.¶ Stars have aligned in weirder ways before, but I'm on the side of those who thinks that the House simply will not pass any immigration bill that makes "amnesty" a possibility.¶ Here's what's been

constant:¶ The GOP leadership has not had control over its rank and file since the advent ofthe Tea Party movement, or, really, since the election of Barack Obama, or even since the nomination of John

McCain.¶ John Boehner has no way to persuade enough rank-and-file members to changetheir votes on immigration. By "no way," I mean no way except for an appeal to the better angels of their nature.This is not a very effective appeal coming from a pragmatist.¶ Boehner has had to rely on paths given to him by political

enemies in order to get breathing room for his conference.¶ Boehner is not willing to sacrifice himself forthe sake of immigration reform. He could easily bring a bill to the floor, any bill, and get it passed, and thenappoint conferees who will move toward the Senate version of the bill. But he won't. If he did that, he'd be canned.

Hence his "majority of the majority" rule, the Hastert rule, which is both a reflection of,and a contributor to, the anti-governing spirit within the Republican Party .¶ The louder partsof the GOP base, the talk radio hosts, are resolutely against compromise on immigration. Even Sean Hannity, who flip-flopped the day after the 2012 election because he (temporarily?) agreed with the smarties in his party that principles had

to be exchanged for expediency, is now back where he was. Why? That's where his listeners and viewers are.¶ It isabsolutely true that immigration reform will probably boost Democratic political fortunes in the near-term. And isabsolutely true that, by the time Republicans might benefit from changing perceptions of their party, the majority ofpeople in their conference today will be doing something else.¶ It is also absolutely true that if the media says somethingMUST be done and even WILL be done, the collective, the instinctive response of the conservative base is basically a snapfollowed by, "Oh, no you don't."¶ So: How do you reckon that John McCain, or even Paul Ryan, can change any of this?

Won’t pass – conservative base opposed – Boehner won’t bring it to a vote Taylor 7/5Jessica, GOP wrestles with immigration reform consequences,http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/07/05/19269366-gop-wrestles-with-immigration-reform-



consequences?liteOne national GOP strategist called the current debate ―a mild short-term headache for which the party can take two Advil,‖ and noted it wasn‘t as contentious as 2006, when another attempt at reform fell flat. Back then, a bill passed theSenate – when 23 GOP senators voted for it, compared to 14 last week -- but the bill died in an even less-conservativeHouse controlled by Democrats. ¶ Without a majority of the caucus behind the bill the Senate passed last week with a 68-

32 vote, Boehner has said he won’t bring the bill to the floor. Many Republicans stillremain optimistic the bill still has a path forward, whether in conference committee or through a new bill from a

bipartisan working group in the House. ¶ But with the conservative base now abuzz inopposition to an immigration bill they say is akin to amnesty -- despite the 10 years it would take to get a green card, and another three-year waiting period before immigrants can apply for citizenship --

lawmakers in safe districts could especially feel the pull in 2014 -- and that‘s fueling much of their skepticism.¶

―These people aren‘t controlled. They‘re doing their own thing,‖ said another national Republican

consultant of House members already up in arms against the bill. ―Primary challenges come from

conservative districts, and they don’t care if they upset leadership because there‘s noconsequences.‖



---Path To Citizenship

CIR won’t pass – path to citizenship will be a deal breakerRuiz 7/14 (Albor, ―Republicans Give Immigrants a Reality Check on Expecting Immigration Reform,‖ New YorkDaily News, 7/14/13, http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/comprehensive-immigration-reform-charade-article-

1.1397333)//SR A reality check. That’s what the Republican tactic on immigration reform, announced last Wednesday by the Speaker of the House after a much-publicized closed-door meeting with his party, was for all those who had

claimed victory after the Senate passed its immigration bill. ―Today House Republicans affirmed that ratherthan take up the flawed legislation rushed through the Senate, House committees will continue

their work on a step-by-step, common-sense approach to fixing what has long been a brokensystem,‖ the House Republicans said in a joint statement. ―The American people want our border secured, our laws enforced, and the

problems in our immigration system fixed to strengthen our economy. But they don‘t trust a Democratic-controlled Washington . . .‖ That

is, forget about a comprehensive bill. Tellingly, there is not a word in the statement abouta path to citizenship, without which President Obama won’t sign any legislation.So much for a bipartisan bill coming out of the House any time soon . Actually, if

anything at all is ever going to move through the House, it won‘t happen, at least, until September. ― It’s going to bedifficult. Many Republicans believe, or say they believe, that because the undocumented broke

the law they should not be granted citizenship ever,‖ said Rep. José Serrano (D-Bronx). ―And that’s adeal breaker.‖ The Hispanic Congressional Caucus also had a meeting on Wednesday with Obama at the White House. What has

been heard from some of the participants is no more than the usual platitudes (―a positive, productive meeting,‖ etc.), but it was re ported

that some sparks flew about deportations, one of the most painful issues for Latino families. ―The issue of

deportation alwa ys come up when we meet with the Preside nt,‖ said Serrano, who wasn‘t able to attend the meeting. ― ‗Immigration reform‘charade moving from ‗comprehensive‘ super repressive Dem version lacking Republican support to fascist repressive piecemeal o f theGOP,‖ posted on Facebook of Roberto Lovato, co-founder of Presente.org, the largest Latino online organization in the country. Lovato‘s words may sound extreme to some, but for many they are an accurate picture of what‘s going on in Congress. After all, House

Republicans have shown they care a lot about enforcement and repression and verylittle about the fate of 11 million undocumented immigrants or the negativefinancial impact not solving the immigration crisis would have. ―During our meeting,‖ Velázquez said, ―the President placed

great emphasis on the economic benefits of comprehensive reform.‖ Certainly for New York, not fixing the immigration system w ould meanlosing millions of dollars in tax revenues. A report released Wednesday by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy in Washington,DC, and the Fiscal Policy Institute in Manhattan estimates that legalizing undocumented immigrants, who currently pay $744 million instate and local taxes, would increase that figure by $224 million. ―It‘s reassurin g to see that (reform ) would also provide a modest boost tostate and local tax revenues — and, more importantly, would improve tax compliance so that all families are paying their fair share,‖ said

David Dyssegaard Kallick, director of the Fiscal Policy Institute‘s Immigration Research Initiative. ―It‘s important for policymakers to knowthat undocumented taxpayers are making very substantial contributions to state and local governments right now and that thosecontributions would increase substantially after immigration reform,‖ said Matthew Gardner, the Institute on Taxation and EconomicPolicy‘s director. The Senate bill is not all that great but at least we know what it is about. When it comes to what‘s going on in the House, noone has said it better than Rep. Raul Grijalva (D- Ariz.), a member of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus: ―Who the hell knows what‘s goingto come out?‖

No immigration reform – disagreement over pathway to citizenshipShasha 7/14 (Deng, Xinhua, ―U.S. immigration reform hinges on path to citizenship for undocumented workers:experts‖, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2013-07/14/c_132539623.htm, 11/27/13) With both parties in the U.S. Congress looking hard at immigration reform, experts said no bill will pass that does not

include a path to citizenship for around 11 million undocumented workers. "Democrats will not accept a bill without a pathway to citizenship," Darrell West, a senior fellow at the Washington-based think

tank Brookings Institution, told Xinhua. He added that Democrats would rather pass no bill atall than one without that measure, which many maintain is the immigration

issue's most pressing concern. Indeed, in recent weeks the Democrat-ledSenate passed an immigration overhaul that would beef up border securityand provide a 13-year path to citizenship for those in the United Statesillegally. But the Republican Party is split over the path to citizenshipprovision, with some supporting it and others contending that bordersecurity must happen first. Others are wary of repeating former President Ronald Reagan's 1986 law thatgranted amnesty to nearly 3 million illegal immigrants. Critics have lambasted that bill as a failure, as it did not crackdown on employers hiring undocumented workers. Experts said it remains unclear which direction the Republican Party will take on the issue. "It is unclear how many Republicans will go along," American Enterprise Institute senior fellowKarlyn Bowman told Xinhua. "The trajectory of this is unclear at this point."



Disagreement over pathway to citizenship will doom passageSlack 7/12 (Donovan, ―House GOP views cloud chances for immigration legislation‖, Gannett Washington Bureau,7/12, http://www.thenorthwestern.com/article/20130714/OSH0101/307140119/House-GOP-views-cloud-chances-immigration-legislation)//mm

Despite weeks of lobbying by Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan and other high-profile Republicans, the prospects ofCongress overhauling immigration policies has become a whole lot dimmer. ¶ House

Republicans met Wednesday to try to reach consensus on a way forward, but all they appeared to agree on was that they won't take up the comprehensive legislation that passed the Senate.¶ Instead, they will break the issue into pieces and try to pass a slew of smaller bills — one covering border security,

another covering an employer-verification system, for example.¶ But that approach could mean almostcertain defeat for any move to offer a pathway to citizenship for the estimated 11 million

undocumented immigrants already in the U.S. That provision is a must-have for President BarackObama and the Democrat-controlled Senate.¶ The sharp division within the House Republicanconference mirrors almost exactly the split within Wisconsin's GOP House delegation.¶ Ryan has been pushing for acomprehensive approach that would include a provision offering undocumented immigrants a path to citizenship. Rep.Sean Duffy doesn't back a citizenship option but supports giving those immigrants an opportunity to legally work and livein the United States.¶ Reps. Tom Petri, Reid Ribble, and James Sensenbrenner oppose either option. They first want toprevent more immigrants from entering the country illegally, through beefed-up border security or other methods.¶ "Ifpeople have some degree of confidence that there will not be a wave of new illegal immigration, I think people will be moreopen in discussing how to go about legalizing the people who are here illegally," Petri said.¶ Following their defeat in

November's presidential election, Republicans had vowed to re-examine their policy stances, particularly on issues likeimmigration — the Romney-Ryan ticket lost the Latino vote by a whopping 73 percent to 27 percent. But theirinability to reach consensus on immigration reform, the first real test of their newapproach, indicates the party has more work to do.¶ Ryan has been working quietly behind the scenes,trying to convince colleagues of the economic value of an immigration overhaul. Revamping the visa and guest-workerprograms, for example, could provide businesses with labor they need to grow, whether it's graduates with technical

specialties or low-skilled agricultural workers.¶ But a path to citizenship remains a major stickingpoint, particularly for lawmakers who were in Congress when President Ronald Reagan signed similar legislation intolaw in 1986. That measure mandated tighter border security and a crackdown on employers who hired undocumented

workers, and included an amnesty provision for undocumented immigrants already in the U.S.¶ The idea was to wipe out the issue altogether. Instead, the number of undocumented immigrants skyrocketed, from anestimated 3 million in the late 1980s to an estimated 11 million today.¶ "This was supposed to be the one and only time ofamnesty," Sensenbrenner said. "Ronald Reagan and the Congress were wrong."¶ He and Petri, who have both been in

office since 1979, are determined to take a different approach this time. They want any immigration

overhaul legislation to contain hard-and-fast guarantees the U.S.-Mexico border will bemade secure and that visa-tracking and employer enforcement measures will beimplemented. Then, they say, they'll decide what to do about undocumented immigrantsalready in the country .¶ Ribble holds a similar view about unauthorized immigrants. "I believe that has to be at theend of the discussion," he said.¶ Ribble particularly wants to change the existing legal path to citizenship.¶ "Why wouldsome 24-year-old Guatemalan with a pregnant wife and a 2-year-old toddler hitchhike 1,500 miles through drug-infestedand crime-ridden Mexico, break into our southern border through some desert, walk another 16 miles through the desertto a city they've never been to in a country where they don't speak the language to find something, a better future for theirfamily, rather than walking six blocks to the U.S. consulate in Guatemala City?" he said. "I would propose to you that we'vemade it easier to hike 1,500 miles than we have to walk six blocks. So maybe we fix the legal mechanism first. And when you do that, you have now created a pathway of legality for the 11 million that's much easier to deal with."¶ Duffy is also seton securing the border, but he is open to providing an opportunity for undocumented immigrants to become legalized atthe same time, if not to become full citizens.¶ "With border security comes legalization," he said. "Meaning we'll give legalstatus to those who have come without documentation. That also dictates that they don't vote and they don't tap into ourentitlement system."¶ Ryan is still confident the House will pass legislation overhauling the immigration system.¶ "It's an

issue that members know we need to tackle if we want to have a secure border, if we want to have a system that's wired foreconomic growth, and if we want to get the rule of law reestablished in the way our immigration laws are enforced," hesaid in an interview.

Immigration won’t pass – disagreement over path to citizenship – Boehner won’t introduce a billMiller 7/6Jake, What will the House do on immigration reform?, http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57592500/what-will-the-house-do-on-immigration-reform/"I object" to a pathway to citizenship, Goodlatte told Bloomberg News, "because that pathway to citizenship is somethingthat people who have gone through the process legally do not have the opportunity to have, and people who come here



illegally get that special pathway to citizenship."¶ Goodlatte pitched a path to legality, notcitizenship, that would give undocumented immigrants "many opportunities" while avoiding the impropriety ofrewarding people who cut the line.¶ After border security and employment enforcement measures are implemented,undocumented immigrants would "get only a legal status," Goodlatte said, "It would give them many, many opportunities, but it wouldn't give them something that people who have historically immigrated to the country legally don't have, and I

don't think they should have either."¶ Boehner has not tipped his cards on the likelihood ofa House bill including a path to citizenship, saying he does not want to prejudice or impede the

legislative mechanics underway.¶ If Goodlatte has his way, the House and the Senate arelikely headed for a collision course. Supporters of the Senate bill have warned that

immigration reform without a path to citizenship will not pass Congress . Manyimmigration reform advocates, already leery of the border security measures in the Senate proposal, have warned against any

further changes viewed as hostile to immigrants.¶ If lawmakers can't bridge the divide over a path to

citizenship, someone has to give, or the process falls apart.¶ In the end, the most consequentialoutstanding question is how far Boehner will go in accommodating theconcerns of his base as the House crafts its immigration bill. If he reaches a point at which he believes theHouse has moved too far away from the Senate's proposal, he will face a choice: He could risk torpedoing the reformprocess entirely by passing a conservative bill on a party-line vote that would likely die in conference with the Senate. Orhe could move a comprehensive bill to the floor of the House for a vote, even without the support of a majority of

Republicans, potentially inviting a conservative insurrection.¶ Several House Republicans havealready threatened to depose Boehner if he schedules a vote on an

immigration bill without the approval of a majority of his conference . And thusfar, Boehner has given no indication that he plans to move a bill without histroops behind him. "I don't see any way of bringing an immigration reform bill to the floor that doesn't have themajority support of Republicans," he told reporters in June.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57592074/immigration-bills-border-focus-leaves-some-liberals-wary/






---Interest Group Opposition

Immigration reform won’t pass – key interest group opposition – 2007provesBennett & Tanfani 7/13Brian & Joseph, Group opposing immigration bill plans full-scale campaign on House,http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-immigration-opponents-20130714,0,7164208.story

WASHINGTON — The day after the Senate passed itsimmigration overhaul in June, leading opponent Roy H.

Beck convened his top strategists at a corner table of a pricey restaurant to discuss what went wrong

and to plan ways to stop the bill from becoming law .¶ They brainstormed over rockfish and steak for 2 1/2

hours on how to derail any talk in the House of legalizing millions ofundocumented immigrants — which Beck and his supporters view as unacceptable amnesty.¶ "Believe me,

we are expecting a fight," Beck said later.¶ Beck heads NumbersUSA, arguably the mostpowerful advocacy group opposing the immigration overhaul. Its politicalmuscle comes from tens of thousands of devoted supporters who can bemustered at short notice to protest at public gatherings and to swarmcongressional offices with angry phone calls and faxes.¶ In 2007, when Congress

last tried overhauling immigration law, NumbersUSA flooded lawmakers' offices with amillion faxes in opposition. The outpouring caught the overhaul'ssupporters by surprise, and helped set off a wave of conservative resistancethat killed the bill.¶ Now Beck says the group will mount a full-scale assault on theRepublican-led House, where immigration reform is far less popular than in the Senate. The plan is likely toinclude another fax and phone blitz, and targeted TV ads in some districts encouraging supporters to speak out at town

hall meetings, along with other lobbying efforts.¶ "On a grass-roots level, it is all about trying to hold theRepublicans" in line, Beck said.

http://www.latimes.com/topic/politics/migration/immigration-reform-legislation-%282013%29-EVGAP00073.topic



http://www.latimes.com/topic/politics/government/u.s.-congress-ORGOV0000131.topic



http://www.latimes.com/topic/politics/parties-movements/republican-party-ORGOV0000004.topic








---Will Take Months

Even if CIR passes, it will take monthsLevinson 7/10 (Alexis, ―House Republicans are in no hurry to pass immigration reform‖, The Daily Caller,7/10/13, http://dailycaller.com/2013/07/10/house-republicans-are-in-no-hurry-to-pass-immigration-reform/) // JA

House Republicans are in no hurry to pass immigration reform.¶ The full House Republicanconference held its first confab on the issue Wednesday, following the Senate passage of the comprehensive immigrationreform bill before both chambers recessed for the week of July Fourth. Members speaking to the media after said that

leaders had not put forth a clear timeline or strategy for moving forward on the issue.¶ ― We don‘t want to rush anything,‖ said House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan. ―We want to get it right.‖¶ Congress willrecess from August 5 through September 6. When they return in September, the end ofthe fiscal year will be upon them, and they will have to take up the issue of raising thedebt ceiling, a contentious annual fight between Democrats and Republicans.¶ ―There‘s no way you‘re goingto move this ahead of that, in my opinion,‖ Oklahoma Republican Rep. Tom Cole said after the meeting, when asked if theHouse might move something before the end of the month.¶ Cole said Majority Leader Eric Cantor had not set out anyparticular timeline for the bill.¶ ―The timeline I think is less a concern than that they do it right,‖ said Colorado RepublicanRep. Cory Gardner, when asked about a schedule.¶ ―Someone asked me if we feel a sense of urgency, and the idea is, we

want to keep forward motion, but we don‘t feel like we have to pass something in the next few weeks,‖ said Louisiana Republican Rep. John Fleming.¶ Getting anything passed in before the August

recess was ―one hundred percent unlikely ,‖ he said.¶ A joint statement from the Republican leadership — Speaker of the House John Boehner, Cantor, Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, Conference Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers,Homeland Security Committee Chair Michael McCaul and Judiciary Committee Chair Bob Goodlatte — similarlysuggested that they were in no rush.¶ ―Today House Republicans affirmed that rather than take up the flawed legislationrushed through the Senate, House committees will continue their work on a step-by-step, common-sense approach tofixing what has long been a broken system,‖ they said in the joint statement released after the meeting.

http://dailycaller.com/2013/07/10/house-republicans-are-in-no-hurry-to-pass-immigration-reform/



















Thumper

CIR takes a backseat to other issues – farm bill, student loans, budget fights,confirmation hearings and SyriaFox News 7/7 [Fox News, 7/07/2013, ―Congress returns to immigration, student loans, farm bill; issues splitting

Democrats, Republicans‖ http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013/07/07/congress-returns-to-immigration-student-loans-farm-bill-issues-splitting/#ixzz2Z2oMmUUn)//SG House conservatives wanted cuts deeper than $2 billion annually, or about 3 percent, in the almost $80 billion-a-year

food stamp program. Democrats were furious with a last-minute amendment that would have added additional work

requirements to food stamps, now called the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reidhas said an extension of the current farm law, passed in 2008, is unlikely and is pressingthe House to pass his chamber‘s version of the bill. The current policy expires Sept. 30. Congress alsomust figure out what to do about interest rates on college student loans, which on July 1 doubled

from 4.3 percent because of partisan wrangling in the Senate. Republicans want the rates on the federally funded Stafford loans tied tomarket factors, saying politicians toying with the rates creates uncertainty among students and their families. Democrats say poor andmiddle-class students cannot afford to have the rates return to the pre-2007 level of 6.8 percent, which would increase the average cost of aloan by $2,600. And they say Republicans, when trying to improve the economy, should instead look at closing tax loopholes for the wealthy. A compromise in the form of a one-year extension on the rate could be reached before school starts in the fall and new lo ans begin.

The cooperation in the Senate during the passage of the immigration bill could be

wiped out immediately if Reid, frustrated with GOP delaying tactics on judges and nominations, tries to change the

chamber rules by scrapping the current three-fifths majority for a simple majority. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has indicatedit's a decision Reid could regret if the Republicans seizes Senate control in next year's elections. Democrats in 2014 will have to defend 21

seats, compared to 14 for Republicans. McConnell envisioned a long list of reversals from theDemocratic agenda, from repealing Obama's health care law to shipping radioactivenuclear waste to Yucca Mountain in Reid's home state of Nevada. In addition, recently electedDemocrats have clamored for changes in Senate rules as Obama has faced Republicanresistance to his nominations. The GOP has, for example, challenged Obama's three judicial nominees to the powerful U.S.

Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. Congress also faces political and economic fights overthe budget, with the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 and Congress plodding through spending

bills with no sign of being done on time. In addition to legislation to keep the government running, Congress

probably will have to vote on whether to raise the nation's borrowing authority, a politically fraught vote that roiled the markets in August

2009. Three Senate committees will consider Obama nominees for major national security

positions this month, confirmation hearings certain to set off a political dust-up over thepresident's policies. Questions about the administration's policy toward Syria and plansto arm the rebels in their civil war with President Bashar Assad's forces will dominate theSenate Armed Services Committee hearing on the re-nomination of Gen. Martin Dempsey for chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.



Obama Not Key

Obama not key to immigration reform – Republican politicians and interestgroups are key

Bernstein 7/10 Jonathan, The strange (probable?) death of immigration reform,http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2013/07/10/the-strange-probable-death-of-immigration-reform/ On the other hand, I don’t get the sense that the nominal supporters of acomprehensive bill — either the business interests or Republican strategists who believe that the party needs to

get the issue off the table — are going all-out, either. Well, in the Senate, Marco Rubio and the other ―Gang‖members did, but on the House side? Paul Ryan of Wisconsin seems to be the most important supporter, and he‘s

working behind the scenes. Meanwhile, most of the interest group supporters seem (at

least from what I see) more scared of their shadows than they are of a bill failing.¶ And

that matters, quite possibly decisively.¶ It gets to something very important to know about legislating. Yes, counting votes matters. But intensity also matters. There are plenty of bills that havetheoretical majorities but never go anywhere, either because of strongopposition or, even deadlier, a lack of strong support. ¶ What it comes down to is that

comprehensive immigration reform probably can be saved — but only ifthose Republican politicians, Republican operatives and Republican-alignedinterest groups who support it are willing to go all-out , and not just behind closed doors,to get it.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/paul-ryan-working-behind-the-scenes-to-push-comprehensive-immigration-legislation/2013/07/10/e75edb2e-e8ce-11e2-a301-ea5a8116d211_story_1.html



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CIR DA Updates - Michigan7 2013 GJP

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