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City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

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City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014
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Page 1: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

City of Hallandale Beach

DB Plan Update

November 17, 2014

Page 2: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Important Information

All expressions of opinion and predictions in this report are subject to change without notice. This report is not intended to be, nor should it be relied upon in any way as a forecast or guarantee of future events regarding a particular investment or the markets in general.

Economy and Market Review3rd Quarter 2014

Page 3: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Economy and Market ReviewRecap 3rd Quarter 2014

Indexes are not available for direct investment.

• Global equity markets generally experienced negative returns in the third quarter of 2014

• In the U.S., the S&P 500 Index gained 1.13% for the quarter and is up 8.34% for the year

• International markets (as measured by the MSCI All Country World (ex-U.S.) Index) lost 5.27% during the third quarter of 2014 and are flat (0.0%) year to date

– International developed markets (as measured by the MSCI EAFE Index) lost 5.88% for the quarter and are down1.38 % for the year

– International emerging markets (as measured by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index) lost 3.50% for the quarter, but are up 2.43% for the year

• Yields have been relatively flat since the low as investors remained skeptical about faster growth

– The 10-year Treasury yield finished the quarter at 2.49%, down 4 basis points for the quarter

– The 2-year Treasury yield finished the quarter at 0.57%, up 9 basis points for the quarter

Page 4: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Economy and Market Review

Recap 3rd Quarter 2014

• U.S. still appears to be poised for further growth

• Brazil is in a technical recession

• European pessimism is rampant

• U.S. Yields remain low despite U.S. growth

Page 5: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

The EconomyTailwinds & Headwinds – Third Quarter

2014

Headwinds

Legislative & Fed action impact

Geopolitical risks

Brazil in technical recession & European pessimism

Duration of the U.S. expansion

Tailwinds

Employment continues improvement

Pent-up consumer demand

ECB plan for bond purchases

Highly accommodative monetary conditions

Page 6: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Economy and Market Review

Outlook for the Future

• Potential for more serious emerging market financial stress

• The U.S. economy is likely past the middle of the expansion

• Rates have to rise…eventually

• Growth in China has likely slowed permanently

Page 7: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Outlook for the Future

Economy and Market Review

Faster U.S. growth could drive higher yields by year end, but the strong economy would likely be offset by global forces driving yields lower. Strong U.S. expansion and removal of Fed accommodation could result in somewhat higher rates and further volatility.

Our forecast for Treasury yields at the end of 2014 is as follows:

– A Federal Funds Rate target of 0% to 0.25%

– A 10-year Treasury Rate of 2.75% to 3.00%

– A 2-year Treasury Rate of 1.00%

Page 8: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Asset Class Review Three Months Ending September 30, 2014

Fixed Income Real EstateU.S. Equity Int’l Equity

Source: Principal Global Investors Returns are annualized. Indices are unmanaged and do not take into account fees, expenses and transaction costs. Indices are not available for direct investment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Page 9: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Asset Class Review One Year Ending September 30, 2014

Fixed Income Real EstateU.S. Equity Int’l Equity

Source: Principal Global Investors Returns are annualized. Indices are unmanaged and do not take into account fees, expenses and transaction costs. Indices are not available for direct investment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Page 10: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Asset Class Review Three Years Ending September 30, 2014

Fixed Income Real EstateU.S. Equity Int’l Equity

Source: Principal Global Investors Returns are annualized. Indices are unmanaged and do not take into account fees, expenses and transaction costs. Indices are not available for direct investment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Page 11: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Asset Class Review Five Years Ending September 30, 2014

Fixed Income Real EstateU.S. Equity Int’l Equity

Source: Principal Global Investors Returns are annualized. Indices are unmanaged and do not take into account fees, expenses and transaction costs. Indices are not available for direct investment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Page 12: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Asset Class Review Ten Years Ending September 30, 2014

Fixed Income Real EstateU.S. Equity Int’l Equity

Source: Principal Global Investors Returns are annualized. Indices are unmanaged and do not take into account fees, expenses and transaction costs. Indices are not available for direct investment. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Page 13: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

January 1, 1999 – December 31, 2013

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Asset Class Performance

. Large-cap growth stocks are represented by the annual total returns of the Russell 1000® Growth Index. Large-cap value stocks are represented by the annual total returns of the Russell 1000 ® Value Index. Mid-cap growth stocks are represented by the annual total returns of the Russell Midcap® Growth Index. Mid-cap value stocks are represented by the annual total returns of the Russell Midcap® Value Index. Small-cap growth stocks are represented by the annual total returns of the Russell 2000® Growth Index. Small-cap value stocks are represented by the annual total returns of the Russell 2000® Value Index. International stocks are represented by the annual total returns of the MSCI EAFE® Index. Emerging stocks are represented by the annual total returns of the MSCI Emerging Index. Core bonds are represented by the annual total returns of the Barclay’s Capital Aggregate Index. High Yield bonds

are represented by the annual total returns of the Barclay’s Capital US High Yield Index. Real Estate securities are represented by the annual total returns of the NAREIT Index. Direct Property is represented by the annual total returns of the NCREIF Open End Property Index. The indexes are unmanaged and do not take transaction charges into consideration. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

No investment strategy, such as asset allocation or diversification, can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.

Page 14: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

General Employee Plan – Target Allocation By Asset Class

7

Page 15: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

General Employee Plan – Target Allocation By Investment Option

8

Page 16: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

General Employee Plan – Target Allocation By Investment Option

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Page 17: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

General Employee Plan – Asset Allocation By Asset Class

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Page 18: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

General Employee Plan – Asset Allocation By Investment Option

11

Page 19: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

General Employee Plan – Asset Allocation By Investment Option

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Page 20: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

General Employee Plan – Asset Allocation By Investment Option

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Page 21: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Investment Option by Style Box

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Page 22: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Investment Option by Style Box

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Page 23: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

General Employee Plan Performance – 9/30/2014

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Page 24: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Professional/Management Plan – Target Allocation by Asset Class

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Page 25: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Professional/Management Plan – Target Allocation By Investment Option

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Page 26: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Professional/Management Plan – Target Allocation By Investment Option

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Page 27: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Professional/Management Plan – Asset Allocation by Asset Class

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Page 28: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Professional/Management Plan – Asset Allocation By Investment Option

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Page 29: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Professional/Management Plan – Asset Allocation By Investment Option

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Page 30: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Professional/Management Plan – Asset Allocation By Investment Option

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Page 31: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Investment Option by Style Box

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Page 32: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Investment Option by Style Box

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Page 33: City of Hallandale Beach DB Plan Update November 17, 2014.

Professional/Management Plan Performance – 9/30/2014

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