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Civilian Casualties in the Civilian Casualties in the Colombian conflict: A New Colombian conflict: A New
Approach to Human Approach to Human SecuritySecurity
Jorge Restrepo, Michael Jorge Restrepo, Michael SpagatSpagat
Washington, DCWashington, DC
August, 2004August, 2004
IntroIntro
Colombian conflict – left-wing guerrillas Colombian conflict – left-wing guerrillas (FARC, ELN), right-wing illegal (FARC, ELN), right-wing illegal paramilitaries (AUC) and government paramilitaries (AUC) and government forcesforces
We have a great dataset on the conflict – We have a great dataset on the conflict – more than 21,000 events, actors, types of more than 21,000 events, actors, types of events, georeferencing, casualties, etc.events, georeferencing, casualties, etc.
We focus on civilian casualties, analyzed We focus on civilian casualties, analyzed by actor and event typeby actor and event type
Main FindingsMain Findings
The main human security threats are (in The main human security threats are (in order):order):
Paramilitary massacres in isolated Paramilitary massacres in isolated rural areas (killings)rural areas (killings)
Guerrilla massacres in isolated rural Guerrilla massacres in isolated rural areas (killings)areas (killings)
Guerrilla bombings in isolated rural Guerrilla bombings in isolated rural areas and the five biggest cities areas and the five biggest cities (injuries)(injuries)
Total Civilian Killings and Total Civilian Killings and InjuriesInjuries
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Civilians injured Civilians killed
Casualties 1988-2003Casualties 1988-2003
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000
Total
Combatants
Civilians
During Clashes During attacks
Type of action Description
1 Aerial bombardment Aerial attack from an airplane or helicopter.
2 Ambush Surprise attack by concealed people lying in wait.
3 Anti-kidnapping operation Attempted rescue of kidnapped people or hostages.
4 Armed Robbery Stealing or looting by an armed group.
5 Artillery attack Shooting of artillery or other heavy fire from armed personnel carriers.
6 Attack on means of transport Damaging cars, buses, trucks, trains, etc..
7 Bombing Detonation of an explosive device not covered in categories 1, 12, 16 and 17.
8 Check point and/or road blockage
Search of vehicles and questioning of occupants and/or blocking of public road.
9 Electoral interference Disruption to electoral process such as an attack on a voting booth.
10 Generic attack Information is insufficient to determine the precise type of attack.
11 Harassment to fixed position Minor action against a fixed structure or place, such as a police station, military base or town, without attempting to take the position.
12 Incursion Entry into a town or village.
13 Infrastructure attack Actions against energy transmission networks, pipelines, roads, railroads, etc.
14 Local police station attack Assault on a local police post (CAI in Spanish).
15 Mass kidnapping Simultaneous kidnapping of more than 4 people.
16 Massacre Killing of more than three defenceless people with some selectiveness against either the people killed or the place where they are killed.
17 Mine explosion Explosion of a land mine.
18 Other government offensive operations
Normally actions asserting control over territory such as patrolling.
19 Propaganda explosion Detonation of device that spreads propaganda pamphlets.
20 Raid Judicially sanctioned searches.
21 Taking of town or village Entry into a town or village leading to at least temporary control.
Portfolio of Attacks: Portfolio of Attacks: Paramilitaries vs. Guerrillas Paramilitaries vs. Guerrillas
Civilian Casualties in Attacks Civilian Casualties in Attacks by Groupby Group
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Guerrilla Paramilitaries Government Other
Civilian Killings: Guerrilla Civilian Killings: Guerrilla AttacksAttacks
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Check point and/or road blockage Massacre Incursion Bombing
Civilian Killings: Paramilitary Civilian Killings: Paramilitary AttacksAttacks
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Massacre Incursion Check point and/or road blockage
Civilians Injured by GroupCivilians Injured by Group
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Government Guerrilla Other Paramilitaries
Civilian Injuries: Guerrilla Civilian Injuries: Guerrilla AttacksAttacks
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Bombing Incursion Mine explosion
Civilians Killed Per Attack by Civilians Killed Per Attack by GroupGroup
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Guerrilla Paramilitaries Government
Casualties by event typeCasualties by event type
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Massacre Bombing Incursion Mine explosion
Civilians Injured per Attack by Civilians Injured per Attack by GroupGroup
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Guerrilla Paramilitaries Government
FARC vs. ELN casualties in FARC vs. ELN casualties in attacksattacks
Civilian Casualties per Attack: Civilian Casualties per Attack: FARC vs. ELNFARC vs. ELN
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
ELN Ratio of Casualties to attacks FARC Ratio of Casualties to attacks
Civilians killed in massacres by Civilians killed in massacres by the paramilitaries: CDF the paramilitaries: CDF
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9 5 7 9 12 >15
Population density: people per square kilometre
Cu
mu
lati
ve s
har
e
Civilians killed in massacres by Civilians killed in massacres by the guerrillas: CDF the guerrillas: CDF
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.7
3.9 5 7 9 12 >15
Population density: people per square kilometre
Cu
mu
lati
ve s
har
e
Civilians injured in guerrilla Civilians injured in guerrilla bombings: CDF bombings: CDF
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49
Population density: people per square kilometre
Cu
mu
lati
ve s
har
e
ConclusionConclusion
We can pinpoint the forms of civilian We can pinpoint the forms of civilian casualties in attacks with known authors casualties in attacks with known authors with remarkable specificity.with remarkable specificity.
More than 1/3 of them are accounted for More than 1/3 of them are accounted for by paramilitary and guerrilla massacres by paramilitary and guerrilla massacres and guerrilla bombings in isolated rural and guerrilla bombings in isolated rural areas.areas.
Add in guerrilla bombings in the five Add in guerrilla bombings in the five biggest cities and we have almost 40% of biggest cities and we have almost 40% of the casualties.the casualties.
ConclusionConclusion
In other words rural security is the In other words rural security is the big problem but there is a serious big problem but there is a serious urban terrorism issue as well.urban terrorism issue as well.
Colombia is notably lacking in strong Colombia is notably lacking in strong local security institutions, to a large local security institutions, to a large extend due to the country’s sad extend due to the country’s sad history of abusive paramilitarismhistory of abusive paramilitarism
ConclusionConclusion
There are significant pockets of local There are significant pockets of local wealth, in particular, big landowners wealth, in particular, big landowners and cattle farmers that must be and cattle farmers that must be tapped to support local security.tapped to support local security.
We will need more good micro data We will need more good micro data on conflict to fulfil a larger research on conflict to fulfil a larger research programme.programme.
