Date post: | 09-May-2015 |
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Technology |
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Five Ways of Looking at the Liberal Arts Campus
in 2015CLAC Conference 2010
Dickinson College
Lookingback,lookingahead
Futuresresearch
• Pew/Elon reports• Horizon Report• Prediction markets
Also:• Future of Everything• Educause Evolving
Technologies Committee• sf: Vernor Vinge
• NITLE Network• Environmental
scanning
trend extrapolationone key form of futurism• default assumption is
quantitative arc• allow us to look for qual
possibilities• Examples–OS balance–# of courses in CMS–Moore's law keeps working
Photo: graphene using thermochemical nanolithography supplanting silicon
trend extrapolationsize of data• 5 exabytes of data online in 2002• 281 exabytes in 2009• call it 11240 in 2015
broadband increases
social media content, diversity increase
trend extrapolationcontinuing trendlines for ubicomp• # of mobile devices
3d, non-keyboard interfaces growing steadily
internet of things• addressable
objects (IP printers, etc)AR
trend extrapolation
campus-related trends• ebooks grow
trend extrapolation
campus-related trends• cyberinfrastructure grows: sciences,
humanities• digitization continues: scanning, imaging• CMS platforms
…assume all of these for today's scenarios
Scenarios Stories about futures• Event and response• Creativity
• Roles and times• Emergent practices and
patterns
Scenarios
Jamais Cascio: thinking is the important good• open up multiple outcomes• intersections of trends can power new stuff• not Black Swans, but flexible enough thinking to
better enable us to think through BSes
Caveats
• Overlap and interconnection• Lots of gaps – that’s part of the plan• No value judgments• No probability assessments
over tohttp
://prezi.com/egocbx3gha-y/liberal-education-in-2015/
or
http://tinyurl.com/39zeqyd
• Pew/Elon Imagining the Internet, http://www.elon.edu/predictions/
• Future of Everything, NERCOMP/AC, http://www.academiccommons.org/futureofeverything
• NMC/ELI Horizon Report, http://www.nmc.org/horizon • NITLE Prediction Markets, http://markets.nitle.org/ • Graphene developments,
http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/25547/?nlid=3120&a=f
Credits
• Exabytes growing, Marisa Mayer, http://www.slideshare.net/PARCInc/innovation-at-google-the-physics-of-data
• Tanagram military AR, http://spill.tanagram.com/2010/05/24/precise-overlay-registration-within-augmented-reality-a-glimpse-into-the-technology/
• Connexions, http://cnx.org/ • Black Swans: Field Museum Library, gnuckxcc0,
http://www.flickr.com/photos/34409164@N06/3209135920/
• Great California Shakeout, http://www.shakeout.org/media/index.html
• Uncredited photos: mine
Credits for Prezi
• XKCD, http://xkcd.com/750/ • Democratized curation,
http://www.hyperorg.com/blogger/2010/06/06/democratized-curation/
• ebooks outselling print by 2015, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/sony/7798340/Sony-ebooks-to-overtake-print-within-five-years.html
• Beloit Mindset list: http://www.beloit.edu/mindset/ • Facebook Quora: http://
mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20100531/facebook-moving-to-answer-the-quora-question/
• Episilon Aurigae crowdsourcing, http://mysite.du.edu/~rstencel/epsaurnews.htm
• Jesse Schell, Is Your Life Just One Big RPG? http://e3.g4tv.com/thefeed/blog/post/702668/dice-2010-video-design-outside-the-box.html
• HP CeNSE: Sensor Networks and the Pulse of the Planet, http://www.slideshare.net/hewlettpackard/hp-cense-sensor-networks-and-the-pulse-of-the-planet
• Twitterati: Joanne Golas, Owen Kelly, Chris Seller, David E. Robinson• Other humans: Mike Sellers, NITLE
staff, Todd Bryant, Ed Webb, Robert Renaud, Howard Rheingold
…and thanks to CLAC for the opportunity.