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CLEEVE RACING FREE CHELTENHAM YANKEE 2020
CLEEVE RACINGFREE CHELTENHAM YANKEE 2020
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Table of Contents
Introduction
Supasundae - Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1), Tuesday, March 10th
Roksana - Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered As David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle) (Class 1), Tuesday March 10th
Altior - Betway Champion Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1), Wednesday, March 11th
Presenting Percy - Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) (Class 1), Friday, March 13th
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Introduction
A warm welcome to Cleeve Racing's 2020 Cheltenham Festival ante-post Yankee.
Ante-post betting is a tricky game as a lot of horses are entered in multiple races, so we don't know for a fact where they will line up until the 5-day declaration stage. The benefit of betting ante-post is that if you do get it right, you will usually get much bigger prices than you would do betting on the day.
Last year's Yankee saw us deliver a 7/1 winner with Topofthegame in the RSA Chase on the second day, but unfortunately, we didn't manage to get a place with any of our other 3 runners. So, we're trying extra hard this year to do better with 4 great priced selections, and to minimise our risk we have selected 4 horses that all have single race entries
On the other hand, everyone who joined the £10 trial and followed our advice over the 4 days made a decent profit.
A 'Yankee' is a well-known 'multiple bet' that perms four horses in 6 x doubles, 4 x trebles and 1x 4-timer. This gives us a total of 11 lines, so whatever the stake per line is, your total is x 11 the stake per line (22 if doing EW). Clear as mud? The table below gives you more of a steer…
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Yankee bet table = 4 x selections
Bet type Number of bets
Doubles 6
Trebles 4
4 x Accumulator 1
Total bets 11 (22 each way)
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Best Odds grid – Oddschecker.com
At the time of writing the best odds were available with Betfair watch the video on the download page to see how to check these on Oddschecker.com
Here is a copy of our £1 each way Yankee bet with Betfair
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Supasundae - Unibet Champion Hurdle (Grade 1), Tuesday, March 10th
The strategy here is purely one of going for value. I just cannot believe that Supasundae is 20/1 for the race given his really encouraging come back behind Honeysuckle at Leopardstown in the Irish Champion Hurdle. Maybe if he had an entry in the Stayers I could see it, but after running in that race for the last two years (last year he looked to be travelling all over the field coming into the straight, but faded badly to finish 5th), connections have finally accepted he is a non-stayer over 3 miles at the highest level, however, a strongly run Champion will be right up his street. And the race is wide open this year with no budding star in the field.
He was making his belated debut at Leopardstown after being off the track for 9 months but ran as though he retains all his ability (Timeform agree). Although he needed to be pushed along by Robbie Power from 3 out, he responded generously to pressure (as always) and stayed on really well up the straight, it was really telling that he halved the distance between himself and the hard ridden winner from the last, although not given a hard time himself. He is entitled to come on a ton for the run.
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Many will crab the form of the race, especially with the 20/1 outsider of the field; Darver Star finishing second, however, take that one out and the form looks OK… Petit Mouchoir who was placed in a Champion Hurdle was only ½ a length in front of him and dual Grade One winner Sharjah was 6 lengths behind (admittedly that one didn't run up to his best).
He is very classy and tough as old boots as proved by the fact he has run in 14 consecutive Grade One races, winning four of them and only finishing out of the frame once, so for me, Supasundae has the best form in the race, he is proven at the highest level and is way too big in the betting. He is a past Festival winner and his season looks to have been specifically geared to this race. Trainer Jessica Harrington certainly knows exactly how to get her horses to peak on the big day and in my book, he looks like a slam dunk for a place at the very least.
Watch the Irish Champion Hurdle again
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Roksana - Mares' Hurdle (Grade 1) (Registered AsDavid Nicholson Mares' Hurdle) (Class 1), Tuesday March 10th
The reason we are playing Roksana is that we believe both the odds-on favourite Benie de Dieux from the Willie Mullins stable, and the second favourite Honeysuckle from Henry Bromhead's, are likely to be rerouted. Benie de Dieux is now quoted as the 2nd favourite for both the Stayers and the Champion and Honeysuckle is 3rd best in for the Champion.
Roksana looked to be the fortunate winner of this race last year as Benie des Dieux fell at the last when 3 lengths clear, but our selection travelled equally as well throughout most of the race and Harry Skelton hadn't asked her for absolutely everything at the time. She might have been spooked a bit by the fall in front of her as she hung across the run in and flashed her tail once, but when Harry Skelton gathered her back together, she ran on strongly and was pulling away again at the line.
Watch the 2019 Mares Hurdle again here
Showing she could mix it with the boys, she followed her victory here with a close second to If The Cap Fits in the Grade One Ryanair Hurdle at Aintree. That would have been one of the best staying races of the
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season. She was only out-battled late on and caught in the shadow of the post, she finished a neck in front of multiple Grade One winner Apple's Jade in 3rd and the trio finished a long looking 11 lengths in front of Coral Cup winner; William Henry in 4th... so the form looks very strong indeed.
And Roksana could still be somewhat unexposed, she's only had 12 races in her life, winning 4 and being placed in 7 of the other 8…
She started her campaign this season at Aintree on very soft ground and looked all over the winner. Harry Skelton looked very comfortable on her all the way as she travelled strongly on the bridle, he produced her at the last, but she made a bad mistake causing her to lose momentum at a vital stage and was beaten a neck by Top Notch (a solid Grade 2 horse) giving him a pound. She then disappointed at Ascot behind If The Cap Fits, but in hindsight, the run might have come too soon after her seasonal debut.
Given a 5-week break she came back out and only gave best to Summerville Boy who is very good on his day, she looked the most likely winner coming to the last but was outbattled up the hill. The winner was coming back to hurdles after disappointing as a novice chaser and showed some of the form that gave him the Grade One Supreme Hurdle at the Festival two years ago. After this race, he went on to run Paisley Park to a length in the Relkeel Hurdle, so the form again has a classy look about it.
I consider the only other realistic challenger to be the admirable Stormy Ireland. She comes here in good form after winning her 3 starts this season, but this will be very different from those odds-on victories where she was allowed to dominate and set her own pace. Her 'heart-on-sleeve' running style puts her there to be shot at, so she'll always be vulnerable to a strong-travelling 'closer' and she finished behind Roksana in this race last year to boot.
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In conclusion, if Benie de Dieux runs, we still look a certainty for a place, but only have a squeak of winning. If Honeysuckle runs against us I am happy to take her on, she has plenty of questions to answer as she has shown her best on flat right-handed tracks and has never been asked to travel or to handle a Festival frenzy. I think there is huge value to be had with Roksana, whose only entry is this race and at a best-priced 10/1, I am more than happy to put her in the bet.
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Altior - Betway Champion Chase (Grade 1) (Class 1), Wednesday, March 11th
We look for a horse in the bet to act as our banker and anchor all the doubles and trebles (and hopefully even the 4-timer!).
I was originally a huge Defi de Seuil fan for this race, but was recently talking to one of our team before the Game Spirit and he was firmly on Altior's side... by the end of the conversation I had talked myself into taking the 11/4 on offer for the Champion Chase!
Altior's campaign this year has not quite gone to plan, as it did perfectly in previous years when the season target was the defence of his crown. I won't waste words on the attempt to step him up in trip for the King George, but it has resulted in us having seen him only once this year, and the naysayers have questioned whether he retained all of his ability (and fire) at the age of 10 over the minimum trip. His seasonal debut wasn't too shabby anyway... he only finished a couple of lengths behind Cyrname at Ascot; the highest-rated chaser in the land, running on his favourite track and on ground that would have favoured the younger horse. Cyrname would definitely have been the more forward of the two and Nico de Boinville was understandably easy on Altior when the race was gone.
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Some 78 days later he next faced the tape in the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury. He was understandably a bit fizzy in the early stages of the race, he raced with visible zest and gave at least 3 of the fences plenty of air. This was great to see as it confirmed that his love for the game and the battle is indeed fully intact. He hit a flat spot between 3 and 2 out but he always does (and with only one outing under his belt back in November he was entitled to!). He looked to be making hard work of things in the straight, but the way he visibly quickened away from them after jumping the last was tremendously impressive and you would fully expect the race to have really brought him on. We believe he'll be cherry-ripe for the defence of his crown.
Altior wins the Game Spirit Chase at Newbury
People have been quick to crab the form of the race, but he hasn't been really impressive for years now. He finished almost exactly the same distance in front of Sceau Royal in this as he did in last year's Champion… and you just can't crab Altior; 18 wins from 19 starts; unbeaten in 3 races at the Festival; unbeaten at the race distance; dual Champion... need I go on?
I wasn't too impressed with Chacun Pour Soi at Leopardstown although the sectionals were good, and Min is definitely no mug. But I felt he made hard work of it and he has it all to prove here, having never run against this class of opposition or on an undulating track, nor has he faced an atmosphere like he will at Cheltenham. And now that Phillip Hobbs and JP have also committed to the race for Defi du Seuil, it's looking like the race of the week!
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Presenting Percy - Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1) (Class 1), Friday, March 13th
We come to the last day of the meeting and the last horse in our Yankee. It's also Friday the 13th, but let's hope that it's bad luck for the bookies and not for us!
For me, Presenting Percy has been the forgotten horse of this year's Gold Cup... Last season after what can be truly called a 'horlicks' of a preparation, he was still sent off the 10/3 favourite. Kemboy (who unseated) seemed to jump into the back of him at the 1st fence, and whether that was the cause or not, he came home injured... so I feel relatively happy putting a line through the race.
This season his prep couldn't have gone much better, he made a very satisfactory appearance in the John Durkan over a trip that was palpably too short for him. He only finished 3 lengths behind Min and was closing at the line. Next time up although he only finished 5th in the Savills Chase behind Delta Work at Xmas, he was only a couple of lengths down at the last and was the only one involved in the finish not to come in for a strong ride. I thought he then ran a cracker in the Gold Cup, although switched off at the back as usual he was surprisingly ridden for a bit of speed and
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loomed up large coming around the home turn. Again, he probably received the most considerate ride of the principals, and I suspect this was the finishing touch to his preparation and I'm betting connections couldn't be happier with where they are with him.
'Theres plenty of clues in the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup
As a dual Festival winner already, we know he handles the track, we also know that he will handle the going whatever it comes up as. He's a strong travelling type but settles well, and he is a brilliant jumper, his stamina is not in question either so he will love the searching pace that will be set up by Native River.
Though it's a competitive race with the likes of Delta Work, Kemboy, Santini, Clan des Obeaux and the reigning champ, Al Boum Photo, they'll all have their supporters and you can make a case for all of them. But Presenting Percy is the biggest price of all of them and at 12/1 is the clear value in the race!
I fully expect Davy Russell to stay loyal to him even if he's offered the ride on the favourite Delta Work now that Jack Kennedy is injured (I personally hope Rachel Blackmore gets the ride), which is fantastic because he knows the horse so well and for me is one of the very best jockeys currently riding. I can see him switching him off and creeping away at the back, improving down the hill still on the bridle before taking it up between the last two and then winging the last and powering clear up the hill.
Can I have my winnings now please!
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