1
Climat and the swedish energy systemPEPESEC - project meetingMalmö 2008-04-11
Anders NylanderArkitekt and energy expertsome of my former experiences
Chalmers University of Technology
Senior project manager of Biogas Syd,
Former Secretary in the Commission on oil independenceat the Prime Minister's Office
Former Secretary of DESS
Kommissionen mot oljeberoendet DESSThe Delegation of Energysuplyin South Sweden
Global carbon dioxide
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
GtC/year
OECD
Forna sovjetblocket
U-länder
carbon dioxide (tC/capita), 1998
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000Population (million)
tonn
esof
car
bon
per c
apita
USA
Canada, Australia, New Zealand
JapanOECD Europe
Russia
Other EIT
China
Middle East
IndiaOther Asia Africa
Latin America
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Oil N
on-c
onve
ntio
nalo
il
Nat
ural
gas
Non
-con
vent
iona
lnat
ural
gas
Coa
l
350
ppm
450
ppm
550
ppm
Bill
ion
tons
of c
arbo
n(G
tC)
ResourcesReservesCumulative CO2-targets
Lack of fossil fuels will not solve the problem CO2 concentration in the atmosphere
and the air temperature in Antarctic
the latestthe latest 400000 400000 yearyearfromfrom ”the Vostok ”the Vostok IceIce CoreCore””
Year 2100: c:a 700 ppm
Källa: www.ipcc.ch
År 2004:
377 ppm
2
Possible future CO2-emissions
Torpshammar in Sweden July 2000
Flooding, Assam, India, July 2004
2008
-04-
15 Sorce: Met Office
Summer 2003
2008
-04-
15
After the storm on January 8, 2005
3
2008
-04-
15
a hundred years is a short period
millions of climate workers
???
17
• Internationell dialog• Beredskapslager olja och gas• Diversifiering tillförsel och energikällor
Fullt Fullt integreradintegrerad,,
balanserad ochbalanserad ochömsesidigt förstärkandeömsesidigt förstärkande
energipolitikenergipolitik
EU energy politics three pillars
Miljömässighållbarhet
•Förnybar energi• Energieffektivisering•FoU alternativa teknologier• Utsläppshandel
Konkurrenskraft • Inre marknad el och gas• Överföringsförbindelser(Trans-Europeiska Nätverk)
• FoU alternativa teknologier
Försörjningstrygghet
The EU:s "20-20-20-2020" targets
20% less CO2 emissions20% energy use20% renewable energy
4
CO2 emissions per BNP and per inhabitant
EU:s klimatmål:
-20% jämfört med 1990
-14% jämfört med 2005
Handlande sektor-21% jämfört med
2005
Icke-handlande sektor-10% jämfört med 2005
27 medlemsstater, spännvidd -20% -- +20%Regler för övergång
från -20% till -30% för EU finns för/om en internationellreviderad överenskommelse
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0
GDP/Cap (000 €)
Red
uctio
n ta
rget
s N
on-E
TS c
ompa
red
to 2
005
20%: BG19%:RO
17%: LV
14%: PL13%: SK
11%: EE10%: HU
9%: CZ
5%: MA
1%: PT
-5%: CY
-10%: ES
-13%: IT-14%: DE, FR
-14%: BE-16%: AT, FI, UK, NL
-17%: SE
-20%: DK, IE, LU
15%: LT
4%: SL
-4%: EL
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0
GDP/Cap (000 €)
Red
uctio
n ta
rget
s N
on-E
TS c
ompa
red
to 2
005
20%: BG19%:RO
17%: LV
14%: PL13%: SK
11%: EE10%: HU
9%: CZ
5%: MA
1%: PT
-5%: CY
-10%: ES
-13%: IT-14%: DE, FR
-14%: BE-16%: AT, FI, UK, NL
-17%: SE
-20%: DK, IE, LU
15%: LT
4%: SL
-4%: EL
EU:s ansvarsfördelning - BNP per capita 20% FÖRNYBAR ENERGI 2020..
Från 8 % 2005 till 20 % 2020
Käla: EU Komissionen
Vad krävs av utvecklingfram till 2020
(~1700 TWh / 146 mtoe)
Is the target a new balance?
Den nya energi
tillförseln
Den nya energi
användningenNuvarande
tillförsel
Nuvarande
användning100%
uthålligenergi
>20% effek-tivare
använd-ning
Bridging Systems and tecnologis
5
Statsrådsberedningen
The Commission on Oil Independence Anders [email protected]+46 709 71 99 49
Statsrådsberedningen
Why should we reduce the dependence on oil?
1. We reduce Sweden’s impact on the environment.2. We secure Sweden’s long-term energy supply.3. We can set a positive example by developing new
technology for sustainable and efficient energy use.4. We will strengthen our international economical
competitiveness.5. We use and develop the energy resources from
forests and fields, ”Sweden’s green gold”.
Kjell Aleklett
Statistics of found oil fields from 1900
Kjell Aleklett
The Oil Triangle
Qatar
Within the Oil Triangle you can find roughly 60 percent of the remaining oil reserves in the world. The 2001 Cheney report, US Energy Policy, says that in year 2020 around 54 to 67 percent of the world production of oil needs to come from the Oil Triangle.
Statsrådsberedningen
The oil demand world wide
Oil consumption
0
5
10
15
20
25
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005
year
mill
ions
of b
arre
ls p
er d
ay
USA China India EU15
Energy system boarders (economy, technology and market)
6
Statsrådsberedningen
How can we reduce the use of oil?
There are three possibilities of principle:
• Increased efficiency in the energy generating processes and supply systems
• Fuel substitution
• More efficient end use ofenergy
Statsrådsberedningen
Energy supply in Sweden 2004
Total energy supplied in Sweden 2004
1
60
110
78
30
137
149
70
9
6
0 50 100 150 200 250
Wind power
Hydroelectric power
Biofuels, peat, etc.
Heat pumps in distr. heating
Nuclear fuel
Natural gas, town gas, propane, butane
Coal, coke
Crude oil, oil products
TWh
Statsrådsberedningen
How much oil do we use in Sweden today?
End-use energy distributed among sectors in Sweden
2004
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Industry
Housing, service, etc.
Domestic transport
TWh Biofuel, peat, etc Ethanol Distr. heating El. natural gas, town gas, propane, butane Coal, coke oils
Statsrådsberedningen
How are we going to reducethe use of oil?
• We will use the energy in a more efficient way.
• We will invest in renewable fuels from forests and fields.
Statsrådsberedningen
Which main goals are suggested for 2020 by the Commission?
• Sweden’s energy use should be reduced by 20%.
• The use of petrol and diesel in road transports should be lowered by 40-50 %.
• No use of oil for heating of houses and premises.
• 25-40 % less use of oil in the industry.
Chalmers University of Technology
Variations in energy-use related to “life style” factors
• Etot total energy consumed (electricity, heat or cooling)• n and V are life-style factors
– n is number of appliances– V is amount consumed (e.g. indoor temperature, amount of
tap water)
• Espec is specific energy used (defined by technology)
spectot EVnE ××=
spectot EVnE ××=
7
Belysning i Belysning i korridorer CSK, Kristianstadkorridorer CSK, Kristianstad
Avd 43Avd 4322 W/mW/m22
3 1003 100 kWh/år kWh/år 2 2002 200 kr/årkr/år
MottagningMottagning1717 W/mW/m22
13 00013 000 kWh/år kWh/år 9 0009 000 kr/årkr/år Statsrådsberedningen
CONCENTRATION OF EFFORTS ON FUELS FROM SWEDISH
FORESTS AND FEILDS
Food
Fibers
Cultural heritage
Recreation
Eco-system services
Biological multitude
Changes of fuel mix in district heating systems in Sweden
Fuel mix 1981
Other 5%
Coal 3%
Waste heat 3%Waste material 5%
Oil 84%
Heat delivery 27 TWh
Fuel mix 2001
Olja 7%
Peat 5%
Pine oil(Tallbeckolja) 3%
Waste material 11%
Waste heat 9% Bio gas 1%
Hot water 9%
Heat pump 14%
Electricity3%
Natural gas 6%
Wood fuels 28%
Other 3%Kol 2%
Heat delivery ≈ 46,5 TWh
Wood chips 2%
Källa: Svensk Fjärrvärme
Chalmers University of Technology
TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE BUILDINGS: A SURVEY ON
POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENTS OF THE EXISTING BUILDING STOCK
Anders Nylander, Filip JohnssonDepartment of Energy and Environment
Chalmers University of TechnologySE 412 96 Göteborg
CIBW70 2006 Trondheim International Symposium, Changing User Demands on Buildings, Trondheim, June 12 – 14
Chalmers University of Technology
Aim of this work• to identify and systemize potentials for
increased energy efficiency and substitution of fuel and heating systems in the existing building stock
• to group potentials with respect to influencing factors, including operational and life-style factors
• to discuss on policy measures to use some of the potentials identified in this work
8
Chalmers University of Technology
Building sector – CO2 reduction strategies
• increase energy efficiency• substitute fuels• reduce demand.
investments in the power and heat generation side are mainly governed by business logics and related to public economy, investments in the demand side belong to the private household economy (residential buildings) - dependent on consumer preferences and consumer behaviour etc
Chalmers University of Technology
• Majority of works in literature addressing energy efficiency in buildings are related to technical measures, but…
• also the way building owners operate and manage their buildings (“life-style” factors) can significantly influence the energy performance of a building
• improvement in energy efficiency based on operational measures should constitute a low cost (or no-regret) option compared to technical measures
Previous work and experiences
Chalmers University of Technology
Transforming the energy system for buildings- some difficulties
• Consumer preferences and consumer behavior– investments in energy efficiency measures compared to
spending on other goods which gives more immediate and direct satisfaction
• Difficult for consumers to coordinate goals and interpret information from governmental boards and markets with respect to strategies for development of buildings and heating market
Chalmers University of Technology
Method
Chalmers University of Technology
Southern Sweden
Chalmers University of Technology
Method• The analysis is based on a combination of field
experiences with database analysis on energy use in the building sector.
• The variations in energy use identified in case studies and by measurements are applied to the housing stock of the database, thereby providing estimates on the total impact of the variations identified.
9
Chalmers University of Technology
Example field experience hospital
Savings28 % heat10% electricityRegion Skåne & tac
Chalmers University of Technology
Method - include capital stock and take local conditions into account
• The energy infrastructure – the buildings with heating systems (e.g. age structure, geographical variations, heat density) provided by a database (Southern Sweden)
• The database gives a detailed description of the energy infrastructure of the region (> 50 000 items)
• The region studied is large enough for the results to be assumed representative for Sweden as a whole
Chalmers University of Technology
Variations in energy-use related to “life style” factors
• Etot total energy consumed (electricity, heat or cooling)• n and V are life-style factors
– n is number of appliances– V is amount consumed (e.g. indoor temperature, amount of
tap water)
• Espec is specific energy used (defined by technology)
spectot EVnE ××=
spectot EVnE ××=
Chalmers University of Technology
Ref, Nässén & Holmerg CTH 2005
Chalmers University of Technology
Grouping of the reductions potentials
1.1. Change in life style Change in life style –– simple simple (mainly n and V)(mainly n and V)
2.2. Increased efficiency in operation of houseIncreased efficiency in operation of house3.3. Technical measures Technical measures –– simple simple
(mainly E(mainly Especspec))4.4. Technical measures Technical measures –– extensive extensive
(mainly E(mainly Especspec))5.5. Measures on overall energy system Measures on overall energy system
(mainly E(mainly Especspec system factors)system factors)6.6. Change in life style Change in life style –– extensive extensive
(mainly n (mainly n ochoch V)V)
Chalmers University of Technology
Results - examples
10
Chalmers University of Technology
• Large potential for reducing electricity for heating• Current trend on the heating market does not seem to
be in line with this goal, but rather exhibiting a slight increase in electricity for heating.
• Based on an analysis of the database used in this paper, Johansson et al (2006) propose a strategy to replace the heating systems which results in a 47% reduction in primary energy use for heating with a 34% decrease in heat demand and a reduction of CO2 with 77%
Energy infrastructure – trends in replacement of heating systems
Type 5
Chalmers University of Technology
0
50
100
150
200
250
64 identical single-family houses
kWh/
m2 ,y
ear
Variation in energy use (heating and lighting) in 64 almost identical residential buildings (single-family houses) in the village “Stångby” in Southern Sweden [V]
energy use varies with a factor of around 2.5!
Espec
Type 1 & 2
Chalmers University of Technology
Potentials for reduction in heat demand in all single-family and two-family houses as obtained from applying lower quartile of data in
previous slide to the database of Southern Sweden [V]
0
20
4060
80
100
120140
160
180
GW
h/ye
ar
The 67 municipalities of Southern Sweden
Σ 4.2 TWh potentialfor energy conservation(total heat demand is 10 TWh)
Type 1 & 2
Chalmers University of Technology
0
1
2
3
4
5
The 67 municipalities of Southern Sweden
GW
h/ye
ar
Example : Reduction in heat demand. From replacement of 2 glass windows with high performance 3 glass windows (single and two-family
houses of Southern Sweden) [Espec ]
Type 4
Chalmers University of Technology
Major potentials calculated in this work based on the field studies applied to the database of Southern Sweden.
Residential houses
0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000
Net heat demand equal to "best performing" municipalityReduced floor area (=floor area of "best performing" municipality
CHANGE IN LIFE STYLE - EXTENSIVE (n, V)Fuel substitution according to energy system optimization
MEASURES ON ENERGY SYSTEM (Espec, regional)Additional insulation facades (single and two-family houses)
Additional insulation attics (single and two-family houses)Heat exchanging of incoming air
Heat exchanging of incoming air, low cost optionsReplacement of windows (in 75% of building stock)
Replacement of windows (low cost option in single and two-family houses)TECHNICAL MEASURES - EXTENSIVE (Espec)
Installations of sun panels (single and two-family houses)Removal of cold spotsReduced air in eakageReplacement of piping
Replacing water heaters (single and two-family houses)Energy efficient water taps (single and two-family houses)
TECHNICAL MEASURES - SIMPLE (Espec)Improved control systems for central heating (single and two-family
Improved control systems for local heaters (single and two-family houses)Reduced airing in empty flats
INCREASED EFFICIENCY IN OPERATION (n, V)tap water
indoor temperatureairing
CHANGE IN LIFE STYLE - SIMPLE (n, V)CHANGES IN ENERGY USE
Electricity for household services and for common purpose (Etot net)Electricity for household services (Etot net)
Total heat demand (Etot net)Total heat demand (Etot net)
CURRENT ENERGY USE
GWh
Single and two-family buildings Apartment blocks
Chalmers University of Technology
• Mapping of a number of life-style factors yields large potential for increased energy efficiency
• Low, or no cost, options• Problem to create incentives/policy
measures to realize potentials
Summary from applying field experiences to database of energy infrastructure of
Southern Sweden
11
Chalmers University of Technology
Discussion on policy measuresType of measure Example of measure Requirements/policy Change in life style - simple (mainly n and V)
Life style influences energy use from e.g. choice of indoor temperature, airing habits, consumption of hot water and electricity
Information and feed back, cost of energy (heat and electricity) based on hourly measurement of consumption
Increased efficiency in operation of house
To use the technical systems/appliances in a more efficient way
Efficient and well educated tenant/management organization of building.
Technical measures - simple (mainly Espec)
Sealing of window, adjustment of heat distribution system, water saving appliances (e.g. WC), sun protection etc.
Efficient and well educated tenant/management organization of building. Easily accessible investment budget
Technical measures - extensive (mainly Espec)
Improved thermal insulation, window replacement, upgrading of ventilation system, replacement of pumps etc.
Economic incentives, knowledge, to take advantage of opportunities during renovations
Measures on overall energy system (mainly Espec system factors)
Matching supply and demand side and to take regional differences into account to reduce primary energy use
Efficient and clear governmental and regional planning and clear and long term policy measures
Change in life style - extensive (mainly n och V)
To reduce space for living, less travelling etc. Information and long term changes in perceptions on global influence from energy use
1
2
3
4
5
6
Chalmers University of Technology
Conclusions - I• Significant potential for increase in energy
efficiency in the building sector of the region studied (and thereby for Sweden as a whole).
• Possibilities to increase energy efficiency are not only related to technical factors but also to what is here call life-style factors –the ways buildings are operated and managed.
A Cooperation Project in South Sweden
for the environment and employment
Why biogas in Skåne?It is a good tool in the Regional Development Program. It is good for the agricultural sectorWe have biogas research of high international class.We have several biogas technology companies here. We have users like Skånetrafiken (public transportations)There is a growing market for biogas
The Biogas puzzel
några av våra deltagare
12
Well-to-wheel-resultat
Fuels 2010
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Total WTW energy (MJ / 100 km)
WTW
GHG
emiss
ions (
g CO2
eqv /
100 k
m)
Conventional gasoline
Conventional diesel
RME: Gly as chemical
RME: Gly as animal feed
Syn-diesel: CTL
Syn-diesel: GTL
Syn-diesel: Farmed wood
Syn -diesel: Waste wood, Black liqour
DME: CTL
DME: GTL
DME: Farmed wood
DME: Waste wood, Black liqour
EtOH: Wheat, Straw CHP, DDGS as AF
EtOH: Sugar cane (Brazil)
EtOH: Wheat, Straw CHP, DDGS as fuel
EtOH: Farmed wood
EtOH: Wheat straw
EtOH, Wheat, Lignite CHP, DDGS as AF
EtOH, Wheat, Lignite CHP, DDGS as fuel
EtOH, Wheat, NG GT+CHP, DDGS as AF
EtOH, Wheat, NG GT+CHP, DDGS as fuel
Biogas, municipal waste
Biogas, liquid manure
Biogas, dry manure
CTL
GTL-DME
GTL-Syndiesel
Ethanol (pure)RME
Black Liquor Gasification
Biogas, liquid manure
Gasification
Gasoline and diesel
Fuels 2010
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Total WTW energy (MJ / 100 km)
WTW
GHG
emiss
ions (
g CO2
eqv /
100 k
m)
Conventional gasoline
Conventional diesel
RME: Gly as chemical
RME: Gly as animal feed
Syn-diesel: CTL
Syn-diesel: GTL
Syn-diesel: Farmed wood
Syn -diesel: Waste wood, Black liqour
DME: CTL
DME: GTL
DME: Farmed wood
DME: Waste wood, Black liqour
EtOH: Wheat, Straw CHP, DDGS as AF
EtOH: Sugar cane (Brazil)
EtOH: Wheat, Straw CHP, DDGS as fuel
EtOH: Farmed wood
EtOH: Wheat straw
EtOH, Wheat, Lignite CHP, DDGS as AF
EtOH, Wheat, Lignite CHP, DDGS as fuel
EtOH, Wheat, NG GT+CHP, DDGS as AF
EtOH, Wheat, NG GT+CHP, DDGS as fuel
Biogas, municipal waste
Biogas, liquid manure
Biogas, dry manure
CTL
GTL-DME
GTL-Syndiesel
Ethanol (pure)RME
Black Liquor Gasification
Biogas, liquid manure
Gasification
Gasoline and diesel
(Källa: Patrik Klintbom med data från Eucar/Concawe/JRC 2005)
www.volvocar.com BIOGAS BÄST!
Regionbiogasbuss
71
Klimatberedningen
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1996 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Milj
lit/m
ilj N
m3
Diesel, milj literNaturgas, milj Nm3Biogas, milj Nm3
Bussbränsleutvecklingen En metafor för Skånes energiomstälningsstrategi
tillförselvisioner
industri
transporter
bost o service
tillförsel
Cirklarna från centrumA. Skånes omställnings-
visionB. Möjliga åtgärds-
områdenC. Skånes strategiska val
1. effektivisering Tr2. effektivisering Ind3. effektivisering BoS4. biogas5. vindkraft6. sol
D. Skånska åtgärder, exempel på nya och pågående
E. Nationella och inter-nationella åtgärder och system som stödjer en positiv utveckling
11
22
33
44
55
66
A
BC
D
E
13
Skåne is a part of Tellus....