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Climate Change 101Climate Change 101
Climate Change 101Climate Change 101
Dr. LuAnne ThompsonDr. LuAnne ThompsonAssociate Professor, School of OceanographyAssociate Professor, School of Oceanography
Board member of Program on Climate Change, Board member of Program on Climate Change, UWUW
Dr. LuAnne ThompsonDr. LuAnne ThompsonAssociate Professor, School of OceanographyAssociate Professor, School of Oceanography
Board member of Program on Climate Change, Board member of Program on Climate Change, UWUW
OutlineOutline
The science of climate change: the IPCCThe science of climate change: the IPCC The impacts climate change: global and The impacts climate change: global and
regionalregional Solutions: from personal to globalSolutions: from personal to global
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007
Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Program
Summary for Policy Makers for Fourth Assessment Release February 7, 2007
www.ipcc.ch
Source: OSTP
IPCC 2007IPCC 2007IPCC 2007IPCC 2007
Main Findings of IPCCMain Findings of IPCC
Warming of Warming of the climate the climate system is system is unequivocal- unequivocal- changes seen changes seen in global in global average average temperature, temperature, melting of melting of snow and ice, snow and ice, rising sea rising sea level.level.
Clear Clear correlation correlation between CObetween CO22 and and
temperaturetemperature
Current level of Current level of COCO22 is is outsideoutside
bounds of natural bounds of natural variabilityvariability
RateRate of change of change of COof CO22 is also is also
unprecedentedunprecedented
Source: OSTP
COCO22 and temperature, 1000 AD to present and temperature, 1000 AD to present
Source: IPCC 2001
Source: OSTP
IPCC
Observed vs. modeled temperature rise Observed vs. modeled temperature rise since 1860since 1860
Main Findings of IPCCMain Findings of IPCC
Most of the Most of the warming in warming in globally globally averaged averaged temperature temperature is very likely is very likely due to the due to the observed observed increase to increase to anthropogenianthropogenic green c green house gases.house gases.
Between 1900 and 2000, the earth has warmed by 1F.Global average temperature projected to increase 2-11.5°F by 2100. Half of uncertainty is climate sensitivity; half is GHG input (policy, tech)
Between 1900 and 2000, the earth has warmed by 1F.Global average temperature projected to increase 2-11.5°F by 2100. Half of uncertainty is climate sensitivity; half is GHG input (policy, tech)
Main Findings of IPCCMain Findings of IPCC
“How far can it go? The last time the world was three degrees warmer than today – which is what we expect later this century – sea levels were 25m higher. So that is what we can look forward to if we don't act soon…I think sea-level rise is going to be the big issue soon, more even than warming itself…
How long have we got?How long have we got? We have to stabilize emissions of carbon dioxide We have to stabilize emissions of carbon dioxide within a decade, or temperatures will warm by more than one degree. within a decade, or temperatures will warm by more than one degree. That will be warmer than it has been for half a million years, and many That will be warmer than it has been for half a million years, and many things could become unstoppable.…We don't have much time left.”things could become unstoppable.…We don't have much time left.”
Dr. James HansenDr. James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies., Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
– – The IndependentThe Independent 2/ 17/2006 2/ 17/2006
Projected Changes in Annual Temperatures for the 2050sProjected Changes in Annual Temperatures for the 2050s
The projected change is compared to the present day with a ~1% increase per year in equivalent COThe projected change is compared to the present day with a ~1% increase per year in equivalent CO 22
Source: The Met Office. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research
Physical signal: observed changes in ice and snow coverPhysical signal: observed changes in ice and snow cover
Duration ofDuration of ice cover on rivers ice cover on rivers and lakes has decreasedand lakes has decreased by 2.5 by 2.5 weeks over the last century weeks over the last century in mid- & high latitude areasin mid- & high latitude areas
Arctic sea ice lossArctic sea ice loss in area (10 - in area (10 - 15%) and thickness (40%) 15%) and thickness (40%) over the last half century.over the last half century.
Decline in snow coverDecline in snow cover (10%) (10%) for N hemisphere since 1960for N hemisphere since 1960
World-wide retreat in alpine World-wide retreat in alpine glaciersglaciers over last century over last century
Widespread changes in Widespread changes in permafrostpermafrost
IPCC
South Cascade Glacier, South Cascade Glacier, 1928 and 2000 1928 and 2000 South Cascade Glacier, South Cascade Glacier, 1928 and 2000 1928 and 2000
Sea-Level RiseSea-Level Rise Ocean Shores, WA
Thermal expansion and glacier/icecap meltingThermal expansion and glacier/icecap melting
4 to 8 inches over the last century4 to 8 inches over the last century
IPCC projects 7 to 23 inches this centuryIPCC projects 7 to 23 inches this century
Erodes beaches and wetlands, inundates low-Erodes beaches and wetlands, inundates low-lying areaslying areas
Thermal expansion and glacier/icecap meltingThermal expansion and glacier/icecap melting
4 to 8 inches over the last century4 to 8 inches over the last century
IPCC projects 7 to 23 inches this centuryIPCC projects 7 to 23 inches this century
Erodes beaches and wetlands, inundates low-Erodes beaches and wetlands, inundates low-lying areaslying areas
Effects of global warming on water cycleEffects of global warming on water cycle
Global warmingGlobal warming Speeds up globalSpeeds up globalwater cyclewater cycle
More extreme More extreme weather eventsweather events
““Hurricanes are essentially heat Hurricanes are essentially heat engines, forming over warm ocean engines, forming over warm ocean waters and gaining strength from waters and gaining strength from the latent heat …. This released heat the latent heat …. This released heat drives rapid updrafts that cause drives rapid updrafts that cause more water to evaporate from the more water to evaporate from the ocean surface and form a self-ocean surface and form a self-reinforcing vortex of swirling clouds reinforcing vortex of swirling clouds generating wind speeds, as in generating wind speeds, as in Hurricane Ivan's case, of up to 160 Hurricane Ivan's case, of up to 160 miles per hour.”miles per hour.”
““Hurricanes are essentially heat Hurricanes are essentially heat engines, forming over warm ocean engines, forming over warm ocean waters and gaining strength from waters and gaining strength from the latent heat …. This released heat the latent heat …. This released heat drives rapid updrafts that cause drives rapid updrafts that cause more water to evaporate from the more water to evaporate from the ocean surface and form a self-ocean surface and form a self-reinforcing vortex of swirling clouds reinforcing vortex of swirling clouds generating wind speeds, as in generating wind speeds, as in Hurricane Ivan's case, of up to 160 Hurricane Ivan's case, of up to 160 miles per hour.”miles per hour.”
9/19 Washington Post:9/19 Washington Post:““Warning in the Winds”Warning in the Winds”9/19 Washington Post:9/19 Washington Post:““Warning in the Winds”Warning in the Winds”
PNW trends, expected impacts
Source for PNW impacts:Source for PNW impacts:UW Climate Impacts GroupUW Climate Impacts Grouphttp://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
Source for PNW impacts:Source for PNW impacts:UW Climate Impacts GroupUW Climate Impacts Grouphttp://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/
Average Northwest warming, 2000-2100Average Northwest warming, 2000-2100
Source: Mote, Salathé and Peacock 2005
Effect on modeled Snake River streamflowEffect on modeled Snake River streamflow
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
O N D J F M A M J J A S
Flo
w (
cfs
)
base
comp 2020
comp 2040
Source: Mote ca. 2005
increased winter flows
an earlier peak
decreased spring/summer flows
For areas that accumulate snowpack, areas close to freezing in mid-winter are For areas that accumulate snowpack, areas close to freezing in mid-winter are most sensitive to warmingmost sensitive to warming
+4°F,+4.5% winter precip
~2050s
Effect on Snoqualmie Pass ski industryEffect on Snoqualmie Pass ski industry
Source: Mote ca. 2005
days
of o
pera
tion
per y
ear
current climate 2040’s
(two different models)2020’s
(two different models)
24 cm snow threshold
50 cm
80 cm
COCO22 Emissions and Concentrations: Emissions and Concentrations: The environment responds to The environment responds to concentrations; concentrations; aggressive emission reduction needs to begin quicklyaggressive emission reduction needs to begin quickly
IPCC
Stabilization wedge optionsStabilization wedge options
PCC slide no. 062 adapted from: Pacala & Socolow 2004
GHG emissions induced by a U.S. householdGHG emissions induced by a U.S. household
Source: Union of Concerned Scientists 1999
other3%medical
6%
housing6%
personal items and services
6%
food12%
household operations
35%
transportation32%
Why a Northwesterner needs to think differentlyWhy a Northwesterner needs to think differently
Source: U.S. EPA 2005; Washington State 2004
buildings (residential)
6%buildings (commercial)
7%
agriculture7%
industry19%
electric generation
34%
transportation27%
transportation46%
electric generation
15%
industry25%
agriculture5%
buildings9%
U.S. GHGs Washington GHGs
Two venues for actionTwo venues for action
Source: Hammerschlag ca. 2005
• Vote
• Financially support concerned organizations- Climate Solutions- Northwest Energy Coalition
• Volunteer for concerned organizations- Door-to-door education- Legislative lobbying
POLICY REFORM
• Drive less- Carpool or use transit- Walk or bicycle- Combine errands- Telecommute
• Drive a fuel-efficient car
• Recycle
• Reduce home energy use- CFLs- Energy Star appliances- Heat room-by-room- Minimize summer A/C
• Purchase GHG offsets
PERSONAL GHG CUTS
City of SeattleCity of Seattle As of March 11, 2007, 418 US cities in 50 states, representing more than 60 million Americans support Kyoto after Mayor Greg Nickels of Seattle started a nationwide effort to get cities to agree to the protocol.
County, UW, BusinessesCounty, UW, Businesses
Seattle Climate Partnership (REI, UW, Seattle Climate Partnership (REI, UW, Starbucks, etc.). Voluntary pact Starbucks, etc.). Voluntary pact among Seattle Area Employers to take among Seattle Area Employers to take action to reduce their own emissions. action to reduce their own emissions.
Sims Global Warming initiativeSims Global Warming initiativeCommitment to reduce King County Commitment to reduce King County EmissionsEmissionsDevelopment of adaptation strategiesDevelopment of adaptation strategies
The UW has joined a national effort -- the American College & University Presidents Climate Commitment -- to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and become carbon-neutral.
StateState
February 26, 2007: Five Western governors agreed to cut their states' emissions
Will establish a regional carbon-trading system allowing polluters to buy and sell greenhouse gas pollution credits.
Solutions: UN Framework Convention on Climate ChangeSolutions: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
Foundation of international efforts to Foundation of international efforts to combat global warming combat global warming
Objective: “stabilize GHG concentrations Objective: “stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent prevent dangerousdangerous human interference human interference with the climate system”with the climate system”
Kyoto protocol sets binding limits: Kyoto protocol sets binding limits: Ratified by over 100 nations; emission Ratified by over 100 nations; emission trading and markets are evolving rapidlytrading and markets are evolving rapidly
Emission Reduction Profile Emission Reduction Profile to achieve 450 PPMto achieve 450 PPM
Tony Blair and Great BritainTony Blair and Great Britain
Proposed bill, Britain will cut carbon emission by 60% cut by 2050, and introduce legally-binding carbon "budgets"
Interim target of a 26% to 32% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2020.