Climate Change:A National and Marine

Perspective

David WoolfNational Oceanography Centre, Southampton

Outline• Global/Regional Warming and Sea Level Rise

– Temperature Change– Sea level Change

• Changes in Weather Patterns– Changes in Occurrence– Changes in Wave Heights

• THC Collapse– Ocean Circulation– Temperature Change– Sea Level Change

• Summary

Global Sea Level Rise

Changes in Weather Patterns

Our Variable Winters: The NAO

• Strong influence on European Climate• Not necessarily connected with Global Change• Definite influence on many surface parameters

Variability in Wintertime Wave Climate

• Variations in wave height coherent over large distances in response to major modes of atmospheric variability

• North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO

• East Atlantic Pattern, EAP

NAO

EAP

Variability in Weather Patterns

• Future Climate Changes can be expressed as changes in main patterns, e.g.

• North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO

• East Atlantic Pattern, EAP

• NAO predicted to go positive

THCCollapse?

Slowing of Atlantic conveyor:

~30%

0

5

10

15

20

25

Volume transport

(Million cubic metres per

second)

1957 1981 1992 1998 2004

Year

~30%

After Bryden et al (Nature, 2005)

Combined effect of Greenhouse Gases and THC Collapse

Sea Level Rise with THC Collapse

Summary

• Global Warming is Real

• But the detail is uncertain. Expect the Unexpected

• Probable outcomes include sea level rise and an increase in storminess. Thus affecting

Coastal Defences

Offshore Engineering

Renewable Energy