Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving
(AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-85722525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
[email protected]://clasp.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood
Winter 2017March 9, 2017
Class Information and News
• Ctools site: CLIMATE_480_001_W16
– Record of course
• Rood’s Class MediaWiki Site– http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
• A tumbler site to help me remember– http://openclimate.tumblr.com/
Resources and Recommended Reading
• IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers
• IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Technical Summary
• IPCC (2013) Working Group 2: Summary for Policy Makers
• IPCC (2013) Working Group 2: Technical Summary
• National Climate Assessment (2014)
Resources and Recommended Reading
• BAMS: State of the Climate– State of Climate 2009
• State of the Climate: Monthly Summary• Walther, Ecological Response, Nature, 2002• McCarty, Ecological Consequences,
Conservation Biology, 2001• Rosenzweig, Attribution of Impacts, Nature,
2008• Revkin DotEarth, Ocean Temperature• Rood Blog, “Just Temperature”
Outline: Class 10, Winter 2017
• Climate variability and trends (Redux)• Trends in physical climate
– Ocean– Ice– Rain– Temperature
• Trends in impacts (most briefly, see IPCC WGII, and reference list)
Modes of Climate Variability
• Weather – single “events” – waves, vortices• There are modes of internal variability in the
climate system which cause global changes.– El Niño – La Niña
• What is El Niño– North Atlantic Oscillation
• Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation– Annular Mode– Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic– Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Ocean Circulation
The Thermohaline Circulation (THC)(Global, organized circulation in the ocean)
(The “conveyer belt”, “rivers” within the ocean)
Where there is localized exchange of water between the surface and the deep ocean (convection)
Warm, surface currents.
Cold, bottom currents.
Green shading, high saltBlue shading, low salt
What is a stable climate?
NOAA Paleoclimate
LIQU
ID -IC
E
Younger Dryas
POSSIBLE EVIDENCE OF CHANGE IN OCEAN CIRCULATION
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?
Abrupt Climate Change
• Dynamic variability in the ocean (ocean-ice-land-atmosphere interactions)
• Most scenarios of abrupt climate change are related to a phase change in some way or another. Does the albedo change quickly? Is there a change in the fresh water in the ocean? Is there a release of gas stored in something that is frozen?
• It is also possible to define rapid changes in ocean (land?) ecosystems, that leads to composition changes in the atmosphere. Biology – sensitive to temperature, water, salinity, ph, etc.
Lamont-Doherty: Abrupt Climate Change
Abrupt Climate Change (NRC)
• Abrupt Climate Change (2013), National Research Council
• Abrupt Climate Change (2002), National Research Council
• Rood Summary Blog
• Wunderground: Abrupt Climate Change
In ad hoc groups
Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS THEORY
EXPERIMENT
Knowledge GenerationReduction
Disciplinary
Problem SolvingUnificationIntegration
(perhaps not unique)
What is science, the scientific method?• Elements of the scientific method
– Observations of some phenomenon– Identification of patterns, relationships and the generation of
suppositions, followed by hypotheses– In principle, hypotheses are testable:
• Experiments: cause and effect• Prediction instead of experiments?
– Development of constructs, theory, which follow from successful hypothesis.
• Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like?– Development of tests, experiments that challenge the
hypotheses and predictions.• Validate or refute theory and elements from which the theory is
constructed.
In our groups
• Yer Tanri: Think about changes across the Earth system that you would expect to see in a warming climate.– Atmosphere-ocean-ice-land
• Terra: Think about climate change and the “built” environment, what sort of changes would you expect to be important in the next 50 years
• Gaia: Think about climate change and the “biological” environment (natural and managed), what sort of changes would you expect to be important in the next 50 years
Climate Variability and Trends
Time Scales of Variability
25 years 50 years 75 years 100 years0 years
El Niño / La Niña
Arctic Oscillation
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
LONGSHORT
Atlantic Meridional Overturning
Abrupt?
January 2011 Temperature Anomalies
El Niño / La Niña Signal
GISS Temperature 2002
1997-98 El Niño
Roles of Uncertainty / Variability at Different TimesHawkins and Sutton, 2009 / Rood Lecture on Uncertainty
Trends in Physical Climate
Fig.2.5.(StateofClimate2009)Timeseriesfromarangeofindicatorsthat
wouldbeexpectedtocorrelatestronglywiththesurfacerecord.
Notethatstratosphericcoolingisanexpectedconsequenceofgreenhousegasincreases.Aversionofthisfigurewithfullreferencesisavailableat
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-climate/ .
Correlated behavior of different parameters
• NOAA Web Resource on Ocean Heat Content
• Levitus 2012 Paper on Ocean Heat Content
• Abraham 2013 Paper on Ocean Heat Content and Sea Level
Ocean Heat Content
Ocean Heat and Sea Level
Ice is Melting
• Snow and Ice Data Center• State of the Cryosphere
Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1890 (top) and 2005 (bottom)
95% of Earth’s glaciers are in retreat
Thanks to Paul Edwards
Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1941 (left) and 2004 (right).
Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1880 (left) and 2005 (right).
Thanks to Paul Edwards
Decline of Arctic Sea Ice
• Movie of Arctic Sea Ice• NASA Sea Ice Collection
• Increase of Antarctic Sea Ice– Ended in 2016 and 2017 with change in El
Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Larsen Ice Shelf Collapse
January 31, 2002 March 5, 2002
Changes in Moisture and Precipitation
Precipitation Extreme Events in U.S.
For example Groisman et al. or the National Climate Assessment
Just Temperature
Current Climate
• Rood Blog “Just Temperature”• For surface air temperature for the entire
globe, take a 100 year, 1900-1999, average of each month. Subtract the current month from that average. When was the last month below average?
February 1985
Time series of February
Winter 2014
• It was very cold in Michigan in Winter 2014.
Global Map January 2014 Temperature Anomaly
January 2014 in Perspective
• U.S.: 53rd coolest, 5th driest• Global 4th Warmest
January 2014: Global Temperature
Role of El Niño (again)
Global Map January 2014 Temperature Anomaly
Eastern Pacific
Eastern Pacific
Eastern Pacific
El Niño – La Niña
El Niño – La Niña
The Current Climate (Released Monthly)
• Climate Monitoring at National Climatic Data Center.– http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
• State of the Climate: Global
• Plant Hardiness - 2012
Trends in impacts (most briefly)
Edges and Accumulation
• “Edges” are places where we really might be able to see things definitively. What are the edges?– Ice (Phase transition)– Deserts– Seasons
• Accumulation of heat
Project Budburst
• A community science activity collect observations of the onset of spring– Project Budburst
• How to observe the onset of spring– National Phenology Network
Project of Trees
• A community science activity to collect observations on types of trees– Canadian Plant Hardiness Site
• Paper (including yours truly) on how foresters think about climate change– McKenney et al. (2011)
Interestingly significant news story
Hardiness Map
• Arbor Day Foundation Maps of Hardiness Zones
• Plant Hardiness - 2012
Growing SeasonLength of Growing Season in the Contiguous 48 States, 1895–2015
Can we get a global perspective from satellites?
• NDVI: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index– Looks at radiative budgets, measurements,
and the absorption of photosynthetically active radiation, relative to the rest of the radiation.
How would these changes be revealed?
• Changes in vegetation activity can be characterized through1. changes in growing season2. changes in “productivity”
Increases in ProductiviyIncreases in growing season
Jan DecJul Aug
Increase
NDVI
Jan DecJul Aug
earlier spring
delayed fall
NDVI
From Compton J. Tucker, NASA Goddard
From Kirsten de Beures
Changes in the Amplitude of the Keeling Curve(Keeling et al, 1996)
Amplitude has increased 20% in Hawaii
Amplitude has increased 40% in Alaska, Canada
The phase, start of the decrease, start of the growing season, has moved forward 7 days.
Geographical extent of warming
Osborn Spatial Extent of Warming
Coherent and Convergent Evidence
• There is evidence in both the physical climate system and ecosystems of systematic global warming.
• This evidence shows correlated behavior through many systems.
• Taken independently each piece could be challenged.
• Taken together the evidence converges.– Consistent with human-related forcing
Summary: Class 10, Winter 2017
• Climate variability and trends (Redux)– Internal modes of variability dominate
uncertainty in short-term (decades) and at “smaller” spatial scales (continents)
– Oceanic circulation critical in decadal variability and predictive skill
Summary: Class 10, Winter 2017
• Trends in physical climate– Consistent message from ocean, ice,
atmosphere, land– Apparent counterfactuals? Further
investigation, are they counterfactual?• Trends in impacts:
– IPCC WG II comprehensive summary– Seasons are changing, plants are changing,
birds are changing,
Outline: Class 10, Winter 2017
• Climate variability and trends (Redux)• Trends in physical climate
– Ocean– Ice– Rain– Temperature
• Trends in impacts (most briefly, see IPCC WGII, and reference list)
Length of Growing Season
From Ranga B. Myneni, Boston University
