Climate Change and

Conflict

Cindy L. Parker MD, MPHJohns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Dept. of Environmental Health SciencesPhysicians for Social Responsibility

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Risk Factors for Conflict• Competition for scarce resources

– Population growth increases competition– availability of food and water sources

• Migration– Crossing cultural or national borders– Environmental refugees

• Partial democracy• Demographic & economic inequities • Gender inequality, youth bulge• Abundance of lootable resources

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The Resource Curse: Abundance as well as Scarcity Can Lead to Conflict

•Oil, timber, diamonds, gold, coltan

•Fungible, portable, lucrative

•Worth fighting over•Funding the fighting

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Water AvailabilityNow: • 2.3 billion people live in

water stressed areas • 1.7 billion live in water

scarce areas* By 2025: 3.5 billion people projected to live in water stressed areas• 2.4 billion in water

scarce areas*

*UNEP**Burke et.al. Journal of Hydrometeorology, Sept. 2006

By 2100: With BAU climate change scenarios, nearly 1/3 of the world’s land surface may be at risk of extreme drought**

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Gleick’s typology of historicalwater conflicts:

• Control of Water Resources: water supplies or access are at the root of tensions

• Military Target: where water resources/systems are targets of military actions by nations or states

• Military Tool: water resources/systems used as a weapon during a military action

• Political Tool: water resources/systems themselves used for a political goal

• Terrorism: water resources/systems are targets or tools of violence or coercion by non-state actors

• Development Disputes: water resources/systems are a major source of contention/dispute in context of economic development

www.pacinst.org

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• Kenya: deforestation less rain and more run-off water scarcity hundreds killed in inter-ethnic water wars

• Most water conflict has been intra-national

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How Climate Change Affects Environmental Resources

Climate Change

Deforestation

Degradation of farm land

erosion, nutrient depletion,

compacting, salinization, loss to urbanization

↑ runoff rates

Changed hydro cycles

transpiration rates, soil moisture, precipitation

patterns

Erosion, silting

More frequent droughts,

floods

Sea level riseExtreme weather

events

Infestation

Reduced irrigation capacity

Overuse, pollution of

water supplies

Coastal flooding, damage

water, food

Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999

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Environmental Scarcity and Conflict

Population growth

“Demand-induced scarcity”

Unequal resource access

“Structure-induced scarcity”

Increased environmental

scarcity

Migration, expulsion

Decreased economic

productivity

Weakened states

Ethnic conflicts

Coups d’état

Deprivation conflicts

Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999

↓ water, food

“Supply-induced scarcity”

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A Case Study: GazaSupply-induced Scarcity:• Almost all freshwater comes from groundwater• Annual rainfall = 70 - 140 million cubic meters

– 60% of that becomes runoff to Mediterranean or is lost to evaporation

– Only 40% left to recharge single freshwater aquifer– Aquifer is shallow, >90% is contaminated by sewage,

agricultural runoff, and saltwater• 50-60 million cubic meters = sustainable supply

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Consumption of Groundwater in Gaza

Demand-induced scarcity:

• Consumption: 160 million m³/year– Sustainable supply:

50-60 million m³/year• Population increases

– ~1.6 million people– Fertility rate 6%;

population growth rate 3.78%

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Structural Scarcity• Strict quotas on Palestinian consumption

– Frozen at 1967 levels– Palestinians: 137m³/person—Israelis: 2000m³/person

• Palestinians prohibited from drilling new wells or repairing water/sewer infrastructure

• Uneven pricing schemes– Israeli settlers pay $0.10/m³– Palestinians pay $1.20/m³– Relative to income, Palestinians pay 20 times what Israeli

settlers pay for water• Neighborhood desalination provide fresh drinking

water to ~20% population; rest buy bottled drinking water– Families pay as much as 1/3 their monthly income for

water

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Environmental Scarcity and Conflict

Population growth

“Demand-induced scarcity”

Unequal resource access

“Structure-induced scarcity”

Increased environmental

scarcity

Migration, expulsion

Decreased economic

productivity

Weakened states

Ethnic conflicts

Coups d’état

Deprivation conflicts

Adapted from Homer-Dixon 1999

↓ water, food

“Supply-induced scarcity”

Food Supply and Climate Change

• Grain yields by 10% for every 1°C in global average surface T°

• 2°C to 3°C likely; 3°C to 5°C possible• Therefore 20% to 30% likely;

30% to 50% possible• 2.5 billion people by 2050

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Global Food Production

Individual Food

SupplyDistribution

Access

CLIMATE CHANGE

AdaptationResilience vs Vulnerability

The Global Food System and Climate Change

Global Food

Supply

ResourcesLandWaterEnergySoilLabor

SectorsAgricultureLivestockWild FisheriesAquaculture

Global Food Production

SectorsAgricultureLivestockWild FisheriesAquaculture

ResourcesLandWaterEnergySoilLabor

Meat consumption PopulationTechnology ConflictPolicies Poverty/InequalityEconomic Development IncomeFood Prices Food Aid

Social, Political & Economic Factors

?

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2007 IPPC FAR; http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page6.php

The Arab Spring

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Syria Vegetation Health Index

http://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2011/en/bgdocs_Erian_Katlan_&_Babah_2010.pdf

Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction: Drought vulnerability in the Arab region: Special case study on Syria, 2010

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Environmental Peacemaking• Scarce resources can be used as a tool• Cooperate to manage environmental

resources – transform insecurities and– create more peaceful relationships between

parties in dispute– overcome political tensions – promoting interaction, confidence building, and

technical cooperation

-Geoffrey D. Dabelko, Former Director Environmental Change and Security Program

Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

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Minerva Initiative of the U.S. Pentagon

Engage scientific community to identify– Regions of high risk– Elements of climate change related risk

• Food, water, migration, disaster, population, disease– Elements of resilience

• What allows communities faced with catastrophe to NOT devolve into conflict?

• How can the US assist in fostering these elements to prevent future conflict