Climate change and the future of valuable broadleaves in the UK
Mark Broadmeadow1
Tanja Wohlleber1, Scott Wilson2, Duncan Ray3 and Yvonne Grieves3
1Environmental and Human Sciences Division, Alice HoltResearch Station, Forest Research
2Consultant Forester and Forest Ecologist
3Ecology Division, Northern Research Station, Forest Research
www.forestresearch.gov.uk/climatechange
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
Overview• Background• Modelling suitability of quality hardwood species in a
changing climate– approach– suitability maps– importance of soil mapping: beech case study
• Climate change adaptation: provenance selection in ash– analysis of existing experiments
– new ‘climate change provenance trial’
• Conclusions
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
Predicted climate of the 2080s
summer
winter
Low (B2) scenario
High (A1Fl) scenario
High (A1Fl) scenario
Low (B2) scenario
temp rainfall
+50
+30
+10-10
-30
-50
Source: Hulme et al. (2002). UKCIP02 climate change scenarios.COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
The Gulf Stream ‘We state with medium to high confidence that although the strength of the Gulf Stream may weaken in the next 100 years, is is unlikely that this would lead to a cooling of the UK climate over this timescale’
UKCIP, 2002
I stand by every word we carefully agreed in UKCIP02. Don't let people subvert good science.
Mike Hulme, 30 April 2004
Source: Hulme et al. (2002). UKCIP02 climate change scenarios.
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
2050s-2060s mean air temperature -after collapse of ‘Gulf Stream’
Source: Hadley Centre for Climate PredictionCOST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
1961-902050s Low2050s High2080s High
Climate matching - Little Wittenham
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
360 ppm CO2
700 ppm CO2
Impacts - direct effects of rising CO2
•Faster growth rates - ~50% in young trees; •timber quality affected; •lower water use;•increased leaf area.
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
Oak chronology at Alice Holt - the effect of rising carbon dioxide levels
in recent years?
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
Modelling future species suitability- Ecological Site Classification (ESC)
•ESC is a knowledge-based model; productivity distribution data are used to inform decisions;•ESC was developed to support the UK forestry industry in commercial species selection;
•there are limitations to the analysis:–rising atmospheric CO2 levels are not accounted for;–changing incidence of pests and diseases not accounted for;–changing frequency of storm events not accounted for.
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
ESC methodology
Accumulatedtemperature(day degrees > 5oC)
Moisture deficit (mm)
Windiness(DAMS)
Continentality(Conrad index)
Soil moisturequality index
Soil fertilityquality index
GYC
ƒSMR
ƒMD
ƒD
ƒC
ƒSNR
(m3 ha-1 yr-1)
Suitability criteria for sessile oak
verypoor
poor medium rich veryrich carbonate
verywet
wet verymoist moist fresh slightly
drydry very
dry
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
Esc yield - sycamore
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Esc yield - silver birch
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Esc yield - downy birch
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Esc yield - ash
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
Nothofagus1961-90 2050s High2050s Low
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
ESC yield for beech - UKCIP02 2050s scenarios
1961-90 2050s Low 2050s High
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
ESC yield for beech - UKCIP02 2080s scenarios
1961-90 2080s Low 2080s High
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
Denny woodNew Forest
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
Podsol: Stourhead Penridge
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
c
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
Gley: Epping forest
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
Loam: Friston
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
Masting in beech: a draw on resources?
• Beech mast at Covet wood (kg ha-1)– 2002: 1777– 2003: 27– 2004: 2358– 2005: 187– 2006: ~2000 (mark 1 eyeball)
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
The influence of provenance selection
Dunnottar - Scotland Grimsthorpe - England Slovenia
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
Ash provenance trial
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
Seedling vigour and climatic origin
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
300 400 500 600 700
potential evapotranspiration (mm yr-1)
heig
ht g
row
th (%
of m
ax.)
UKcontinental
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
Oak provenance trial sites
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
Flushing date, frost damage and
seed origin
y = 1.5287x + 39.306R2 = 0.744
105
110
115
120
125
130
42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58origin latitude
2004
flus
hing
dat
e
y = -0.1866x + 30.174R2 = 0.6616
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
105 110 115 120 125day of flushing
Mea
n A
pril
Tem
p (o C
)
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
Climate change provenance trials
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006
Final thoughts• Growth rates will increase in response to rising CO2 levels
and then decline in response to drought.• The timing and magnitude of the response will be
determined by soil type.• Native species will continue to grow, but………..
• What will be the role of timber in a sustainable new world?• Should we return to managing woodlands with the
production of quality timber a key objective?• Are native populations of broadleaf species likely to be
adapted to the climate of the future?• Can we afford to ignore the genetic resource at our
disposal?
COST E42 meetingOxford; 4th October 2006