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Climate change challenges to health: Impacts, vulnerability and response
Shilu TongSchool of Public Health and Social Work
Institute of Health and Biomedical InnovationQueensland University of Technology
Kelvin Grove, Qld. [email protected]
HKU8.4. 2016
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UNPD 2014
Projected future global population(Gerland et al. 2014; UN 2016)
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Life expectancy in Asian regions(UN 2016)
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Smith et al, 2013
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Environmental changes pose a significant
threat to global health
• Climate change
• Marine pollution
• Urbanisation
• Ozone depletion
• Biodiversity loss
• Soil degradation
• Air pollution
Climate change could be the biggest global health threat of the 21st century.
Costello et al. Lancet2009;373(9676):1693-733
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McMichael 2012
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10
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‘It is extremely likely that human influence has been the
dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th
century.’ (IPCC 2013)
Causes of change
IPCC AR5 WGI Fig SPM.6
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Projected changes
‘Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21st century. Under
all RCP scenarios the rate of sea level rise will very likely exceed that
observed during 1971–2010 due to increased ocean warming and
increased loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets.’ (IPCC 2013)
Global impacts of climate change on crop
productivity by 2050 (Wheeler & Braun 2013)
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Climate change and
the GBR• Expected adverse impacts from
warming and higher CO2, leading to more acidic water
Hoegh-Guldberg et al, Science (2007)
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QUT Research Program –Ecosystem Change
and Population Health
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
EHP 2013;121:415-9.
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
EHP 2013;121:415-9.
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
EHP 2013;121:415-9.
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
EHP 2013;121:415-9.
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
EHP 2013;121:415-9.
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
EHP 2013;121:415-9.
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
What does this study add?
This is the 1st study to look at
both the short- and long-term
harvesting effects in heat-related
deaths.
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
EHP 2013;121:415-9.
EHP 2013;121:415-9.
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EHP 2013;121:415-9.
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EHP 2013;121:415-9.
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EHP 2013;121:415-9.
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IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
What does this study add?
This is the novel study to
examine the relationship
between climate conditions and
H7N9 transmission.
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
Mortality risk attributable to high
and low ambient temperature: a
multi-country study
Antonio Gasparrini, Yuming Guo, Masahiro Hashizume, Eric Lavigne,
Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Aurelio Tobias, Shilu Tong, et al
Lancet 2015;386:369-75.
Naish et al.,
2013
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Naish et al.,
2013
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Naish et al.,
2013
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IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
What does this study add?
This is a seminal study
assessing low and high
temperature-related mortality.
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
EHP 2013;121:415-9.
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EHP 2013;121:415-9.
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EHP 2013;121:415-9.
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IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
EHP 2013;121:415-9.
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EHP 2013;121:415-9.
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IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
What does this study add?
This is the 1st study assessing
annul net temperature-related
mortality across different cities
in Australia.
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
IPCC AR5 Fig SPM.4
What does this study add?
This study reported a statistically
significant decrease in the relative
risk for heat-related mortality in
2006 compared with 1993 in the
majority of countries included in
the analysis.
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National Climate Change Adaptation
Research Plan: Human Health (NCCARF, accessed 6.6.2015)
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The development of the Plan was led by
the following writing team:
Prof AJ McMichael (ANU) (Chair)
Dr Haylee Weaver (ANU)
Dr Helen Berry (ANU)
Dr Paul Beggs (Macquarie)
Prof Bart Currie (Menzies School of Health
Research)
Dr John Higgins (DCC)
Prof Brian Kelly (Newcastle)
Prof Jan McDonald (NCCARF)
Dr Tharman Saverimuttu (DCC)
Prof Shilu Tong (QUT)
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Future challenges
To engage in this increasingly-important topic area, we will need to
generate skills and methods in:
1. Well-coordinated interdisciplinary research (including collaboration
with some unfamiliar earth-system sciences).
2. Assessing causal relationships within a systems-change context:
How do large-scale changes in ecosystems affect wellbeing, health
and longevity of whole communities and populations?
3. Scenario-based risk assessments (forecasts) of climate change:
Requires construction of models which are both sensible and
realistic.
4. Economic research relevant to climate and health
5. Formulation and evaluation of community-based adaptive (coping)
strategies.
6. Communications research54
CONCLUSIONS
• CC is, arguably, the biggest challenge to
global heath in the 21th century.
• Accruing evidence indicates an increased
CC-related disease burden.
• We must tackle this formidable, increasingly
important public health challenge.
• There is an urgent need to train more
ECRs/students in this emerging field.
• Funding is clearly needed to support the
research agenda.
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Acknowledgments
1. This program is funded by NHMRC, ARC, Queensland
Departments of Environment and Resources, Community
Safety, Queensland Health, Environmental Protection
Agency & Queensland University of Technology;
2. Indebted to my collaborators, colleagues and students for
their inputs.
Source: commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rotating_earth_(large).gif
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