Climate Change Concerns and Emerging

Challenges for Water and Food Security of Pakistan

Regional Workshop on Climate Change, Food and Water Security

24 – 25 February, 2011, Colombo, Sri Lanka

Ghazanfar Ali

Head Water Resources Section

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Outline

Regional Settings

Some Characteristics of Pakistan’s Water Resources

Past & Projected Climate Changes w.r.t. Pakistan

Vulnerability of Water and Food Security

GCISC Studies on Impact of Climate Change on Water and Agriculture

Some Adaptation Possibilities/Way Forward

The South Asian Region: A hot spot or many hot spots

Principal Rivers of the Himalayan Region

River Name Length (km) Mean

Discharge

(m³/s)

Glacier Melt in River

Flow (%)

Yangtze 6,300 34,000 18.5

Brahmaputra 2,948 19,824 12.3

Ganges 2,057 18,691 9.1

Irrawaddy 2,170 13,565 Small

Mekong 4,600 11,048 6.6

Indus 2,900 5,533 44.8

Salween 2,800 1,494 8.8

Yellow 5,464 1,365 1.3

Tarim 2,030 146 40.2

Countries Financially Vulnerable to Extreme Weather Events

South Asia: Induced

Vulnerability (Climate Change/Variability)

• Two thirds of the disasters, region

experiences, are climate related

(Cyclone, Floods, Drought /

Desertification, GLOFs)

• Phenomenal increase in their

frequency, severity and

unpredictability in the recent times

• Climate Risk – on the Rise

Basic Features of South Asian Economies

India Sri Lanka Bangladesh Pakistan Nepal

Population (millions) 1081.23 19.22 149.66 157.32 2.57

Per capita GDP (US$) 538 976 371 547 240

Share of Agriculture in GDP

(%) 22 17 22 23 40

Water use in agriculture (%) 87 96 96 96 96

Cereals Production – Share

in World (%)

10.2

0.1

1.8

1.3

0.3

Proportion of people

undernourished (%) 20 22 30 23 17

Cereal Requirement

Status by 2025 (%) -1 - -5 -25 -

Some Characteristics

of

Pakistan’s Water Resources

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Some Characteristic of Pakistan‘s Water Resources

Water Availability Per Capita (m3)

IRS Inflows

Reservoir Capacity (Mangla + Chashma + Tarbela)

Original : 18.4 MAF (≈ 13 % of Average Annual Flows)

Year 2001 : 14.1 MAF (≈ 10 % of Average Annual Flows)

Projected 2010 : 12.4 MAF (≈ 9 % of Average Annual Flows)

Downstream Kotri Annual Discharges

Average : 35 MAF

Maximum (in 1994-95) : 92 MAF

Minimum (in 2000-01) : 0.77 MAF

Annual In Kharif ( Apr-Sep)

In Rabi ( Oct-Mar)

Average 137.87 MAF 82% 18%

Maximum 218.1 MAF

Minimum 97 MAF

Source of data: WAPDA

Year 1951 2003 2007 2020

(projected)

Availability 5650 1200 1100 855

Indus at

Kalabagh

Jhelum at

Mangla

Chenab at

Marala

Ravi at

Balloki

Sutlej at

Sulemanki

Pakistan Remote Inflow Measurements Stations

Upper Indus Basin Glaciers

The Karakoram Glaciers

There are more than 5000 glaciers having areal coverage of about 15000 km2 in River Indus Catchment

Total Ice Reserve Estimate of UIB is about 2200 MAF of Water Equivalent

The largest 23 glaciers account for about 60% of the glacier area.

These glaciers are born within an elevation zone of 5000 – 7000 meters above sea level.

Above 70% of River flows are generated from UIB Snow and Glacier melt

Annual glacier melt (1962 – 2009) average in River Indus at Tarbela is about 40 MAF

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Projected Implications on Indus River Flows due to

Melting of HKH Glaciers (Reported by Some Recent Studies)

IPCC AR4 (2007)

Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.

World Bank (2006)

Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows. then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years.

Vulnerability of Water and Food Security

Major CC-related Concerns of

Pakistan

Key sectors: Water and Agriculture at greatest risk;

Increased variability of Monsoon due to ENSO events becoming stronger and more frequent in a warmer climate;

Increased risks of floods and landslides, droughts, typhoons and tropical storms, forest fires etc. due to increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events;

Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semi-arid regions due to reduced rainfall, increased temp., and depletion of soil moisture – May lead to expansion of deserts;

060212/0018

Major CC-related Concerns of

Pakistan (Contd.)

More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers due to increase in

temp. and seasonal variability of precipitation – May lead to

increased summer flows in Indus river system for a few

decades, followed by reduction in flows as Glaciers

disappear;

Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in

snowline on mountains with increase in surface temp. –

May increase risk of floods during the wet season;

Agriculture productivity likely to suffer severe losses due to

high temp., droughts, flood conditions and soil degradation

– Would endanger food security of the country;

060212/0019

Major CC-related Concerns of

Pakistan (Contd.)

As a result of sea level rise, large scale inundation of coastline

and recession of flat sandy beaches; upstream incursion of

saline water in the Indus delta; and risk to mangroves, coral

reefs and breeding grounds of fish;

Enhanced risk to life and property in coastal areas due to

increased intensity of tropical cyclones, combined with sea level

rise; High risk for Karachi;

Large reduction in productivity of both warm water and cold

water fish due to oxygen depletion in aquatic systems;

060212/0020

Major CC-related Concerns of

Pakistan (Contd.)

Higher incidence of Malaria and other vector-borne, water-

borne and heat-related diseases due to warmer and wetter

conditions;

Risk to fragile ecology of Mountain and Highland systems

due to synergetic effects of Climate Change;

Increased threat to biodiversity, which is already at risk due

to land-use/cover change and population pressure.

060212/0021

Some Recent Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan

2010 A serious landslide hi Ataabad in Gilgit-Baltistan 1n January and blocked Hunza river for months together and formed a lake. Some villages got washed away and caused huge damages to life and property

2010 The warmest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan was 53.7 °C in Mohenjo-Daro on May 26. Maximum temperature in the city of Multan on 27 May was recorded as 50°C which broke the old record of 49°C set in 1956.

2010 Tropical cyclone Phet formed in the Arabian Sea on May 31 gained a Cat-IV status on June 2. This was the second strongest storm ever developed in the Arabian Sea. Tropical cyclone Gonu of Cat-V developed in June, 2007 was the strongest

2010 The worst flooding in Pakistan took place during the months of July/August. 16 inches (406 mm) rainfall fell between 28-30 July over Risalpur/Nowshehra (Khyber Pakhtunkhawa). Heavy rain over all the provinces including Gilgit-Baltistan/Azad Kashmir fell during July/August. Many stations broke their previous normal records of rainfall during the months and brought catastrophic damages ever faced by Pakistan in its history. Losses to the tune of some $ 43 billion, 20 million people affected, 1.8 million acre crops damaged and 1000 bridges collapsed.

2009 Karachi received 205 mm of rain on 18 & 19 July. Heaviest rainfall earlier recorded at Karachi was 207 mm on 1st July, 1977. The normal rainfall at Karachi for the periods 1961-1990 is 85.5 mm

Some Recent Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan Contd.

2007 Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. 48°C temperature was recorded on 9th June at Lahore, a record repeated after 78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8th June 1929

2007 Two super cyclones namely Gonu (02A) of Cat-5 and Yemyin (03B) of Cat-1 developed in the Arabian Sea during June, 2007 and hit Makran Coast and adjoining countries. The history of the Arabian Sea at least during the previous century shows no such events occurring twice in a month

2001 620 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July (on 23rd); it caused flooding in Lai nullah

1998-2001 History’s worst drought gripped southern parts of Pakistan and parts of surrounding countries

1996 438 mm rain in Lahore in 72 hours in August 1996 the wettest month on record

1992 Previous century’s worst flood in Jhelum river

Rapid Melting of HKH glaciers and its Implications for:

Average Annual River Flows

Pattern of Seasonal Flows

Inter Annual Variability of Flows

Increased number of GLOF events

Increase in Frequency and Intensity of Extreme

Precipitation Events and its Implication for Floods and

Droughts

Sea-level Rise and its Implications

Stress on Judicial Water Sharing (Upper and Lower Riparian)

Major Emerging Climate Change Challenges

for Water Resources of Pakistan

Climate Change Research in

GCISC

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Past & Projected Climate

Change in Pakistan

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Rising and Falling Trends observed in the Monthly Energy (Degree Days)

of Upper Indus Basin High Altitude Weather Stations During 1995 – 2009

UIB

Stations

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Khunjerab Z Z Z Z R R F F F R Z Z

Ziarat Z Z R F R R F F F F R Z

Naltar R R R N R R F F F N N R

Yasin Z Z R R R R F F F R R Z

Ushkore R R R R R R N F F N R F

Hushey R R R R R R F N F F R R

Rama Z Z R F R R F F F F N Z

Rattu R R R N R R F F F N F R

Deosai Z Z Z F R R F F F R Z Z

Burzil Z Z Z R R R F F F R Z Z

R = Rising Trend ; F = Falling Trend ; N = No Trend; Z = Zero Degree Days

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(a)

(b)

Grids covering geographical areas of:

a) Northern and

b) Southern parts of Pakistan

(b)

Northern and Southern Parts of Pakistan

Climatology Section, GCISC

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30

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Pakistan Northern

Pakistan

Southern

Pakistan

Annual 4.38 ± 0.44 4.67 ± 0.23 4.22 ± 0.18

Summer 4.13 ± 0.26 4.56 ± 0.28 3.90 ± 0.26

Winter 4.47 ± 0.20 4.72 ± 0.24 4.33 ± 0.18

Projected Temperature Changes in 2080s, ∆T (°C)

by GCM Ensemble for A2 Scenario

• Temperature increase in Pakistan is higher than the increase

observed globally

• Temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher

in Northern Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan

• Temperature increases in Northern and Southern Pakistan are

higher in winter than in summer Climatology Section, GCISC

GCISC Studies on Impact of Climate Change on Water and

Agriculture

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Application of Remote Sensing &

GIS Tools & Techniques

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Snouts Variation of Some of the Glaciers in Hunza Basin

Landsat image; Resolution 30m

• 7 – 8 band satellite images of 30m resolution taken by LandSat were

available for 1979, 1992 and 2000.

• The images were analysed using Erdas Imagine software.

Measured Changes in Volumes of selected Glaciers of Hunza

Basin, Karakoram Range, Himalaya (1979-2000)

Measured Changes in Volumes of selected Glaciers of Hunza

Basin, Karakoram Range, Himalaya (1979-2000)

Glacier Name

Volume Change ∆V

(km³)

% Change in Glacier Volume*

Bualtar 1.4 ± 0.7 10.4 ± 5.0

Mohmil 3.3 ± 1.8 27.1 ± 14.6

Barpu 4.9 ± 3.2 19.13 ± 12.4

Gulkin -0.3± 0.3 -8.4 ± 9.8

Mulungatti 1.5 ± 2.6 7.7 ± 12.9

Gulmit -0.1 ± 0.2 -2.9 ± 7.3

Passu 0.8 ± 2.6 9.5 ± 30.8

* Data of glaciers is given in descending order according to significance level in % change in glacier volume

Threat to Food Security

Vulnerability of Agriculture to

Climate Change

Irrigated Agriculture: Consumes >90% of fresh water resources

and contributes >75% to national production;

Rained and Dryland Agriculture: Contributes <25% to

national production.

Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to glacier

melt in the wake of climate change.

Semi-arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to changes in quantity,

intensity and frequency of rainfalls.

Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerable to climate

extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, dust storms, hail storms, sea storms, etc.

Pakistan will experience decreases in crop

production and quality due to:

Shortening of growing season length

Heat stress at sensitive growth stages,

e.g. flowering, grain initiation stages

Increased pest/disease incidence

Increased crop water requirements due to higher evapotranspiration at elevated temperatures

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Agro-climatic zones used by GCISC for Climate

Change Impact Studies on Agriculture

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

0 1 2 3 4 5

Temperature Change (oC)

Wheat Y

ield

(kg/h

a)

Northern

Mountainous

(Humid)

Northern Sub-

Mountainous

(Sub-humid)

Southern Plains

(Semi arid)

Southern Plains

(Arid)

Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different

agro-climatic zones of Pakistan (other factors remaining

constant) (based on GCISC studies)

Climate Change Impact on Wheat Production in

Pakistan by 2085 under A2 and B2 Scenarios

Region

% Share in

National

Production

Baseline Yield

(kg ha-1)

% Change in yield in 2085

A2

Scenario

B2

Scenario

Northern

Mountainous 2 2658 +50 +40

Northern Sub-

mountainous 9 3933 -11 -11

Southern

Semi arid

Plains

42 4306 -8 -8

Southern Arid

Plains 47

4490

-5

-6

Pakistan 100 4326 -5.7 -6.4

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Application of UBC (University of British

Colombia) Hydrological Model

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APPLICATIO OF UBC - UPPER INDUS BASIN @ BESHAM QILA

Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000Ja

n

Feb Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec

Dis

ch

arg

e (

Cu

me

cs

)

Base Runoff CCS Runoff

Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt

Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on Indus River Flows at Bisham Qila

(Just above Tarbela Reservoir) Assumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS):

Temp: +3°C, Glacier Area: - 50%

Main Results: 1. Annual flows reduced by 15%

2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed

Major Collaborating International Partners

• APN Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, Japan;

• ASICTP Abdus Salam Int. Centre for Theoretical Physics, Italy;

• IIASA Int. Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria;

• NCAR National Centre for Atmospheric Research, USA;

• GECAFS Global Environment Change and Food System, UK;

• ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Nepal;

• GLIMS Global Land Ice Measurements from Space, Univ. of Nebraska, USA.

• CeG School of Civil Engineering, Newcastle University, UK

Collaborating National Organizations

1. Pakistan Meteorological Department, PMD

2. Water and Power Development Authority, WAPDA

3. Pakistan Agricultural Research Council, PARC

4. University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, UAF

5. University of Arid Agriculture, Rawalpindi, UAAR

6. Space & Upper Atmosphere Research Organisation, SUPARCO

7. Institute of GIS, National Univ. of Sc. & Tech., IGIS/NUST

8. Pakistan Inst. of Nuclear Science and Technology, PINSTECH

9. Pakistan Council of Research in Water Resources, PCRWR

10. Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engg., CEWRE/UET

Required Further Efforts

Develop appropriate Adaptation and Mitigation Measures to counter the negative impacts by sharing the regional experience

THANKS

CLIMATE CHANGE THAT

WE ARE HERE TOGETHER

FOR A COMMON CAUSE

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