Climate Change

&

DevelopmentChandra Bhushan

New Delhi

Climate Science

1979: First World Climate Conference organised by WMO

1988: NASA scientist James Hansen tells U.S. Congress global warming "is already happening now''

Creation of the IPCC by WMO & UNEP

1992: UNFCCC signed to based on CBDRRC

1997: UNFCCC parties approve Kyoto Protocol mandating emission cuts by industrial nations

2005:Kyoto Protocol takes effect

2007:Bali Action Plan for binding agreement

2009:Copenhagen fiasco

2010:Cancun agreement – legitimizing Copenhagen

Evolution of international climate policy

Awareness and partial understanding of the interactive processes that govern climate change predate the IPCC, often by many decades

Deeper understanding and quantification of these processes have progressed rapidly since the IPCC First Assessment Report (1990)

These advances have arisen from new data, more sophisticated analyses of data, improvements in understanding and simulation of physical processes and more extensive exploration of uncertainty ranges

Evolution of the climate science

IPCC First Assessment Report (1990)

The Second Assessment Report (1996)

The Third Assessment Report (2001) widely known for projections and demand for adaptation

The Fourth Assessment Report (2007) - over 90% probability that this global warming is primarily caused by human activities

AR4 is old now – new observations, new science and new projections and predictions

Evolution of the climate science

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal”

“Over 90% probability that this global warming is primarily caused by human activities – the most important of these

being the emission of greenhouse gases and the clearing of natural vegetation”.

- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Observed changes

Global average sea level

Northern hemispheresnow cover

Global average temperature

Observed changes

Hockey stick CurveHockey stick Curve

Correlating Global average near-surfacetemperature with CO2 concentration inthe atmosphere

The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas

- Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million people lost their homes

The proportion of tropical cyclones reaching higher intensity have increased over the past 3 decades

- Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008: 100 000 estimated deaths

Heat waves have become more frequent over most land areas

- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths

Heat waves have become more frequent over most land areas

- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths

“Continued GHG emissions [...] would induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21st century that would very likely be larger than those observed

during the 20th century”

- IPCC Fourth Assessment Report

Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1ºC to 6.4ºC over the 21st century

(best estimates: 1.8ºC - 4ºC)

year

Ranges for predicted surface warming

(Smith et al. 2009 PNAS)

Changing impact assessment

2°C-Guardrail

Projections and observations in line

Changes in global average surface air temperature relative to 1990. The blue line represents data from Hadley Center, UK; the red line is NASA-GISS data. The broken lines are projections from the IPCC TAR, with the shading indicating the uncertainties around the projections.

Exceeding projections; changing science

Change in sea level from 1970 to 2008, relative to the sea level at 1990.

Change in Ocean temp. a better indicator than changes in air temperature

Ocean store largest amount of heat; is a better indicator of change in the climate than changes in air temperature. Current estimates indicate that ocean warming is about 50% greater than had been previously reported by the IPCC, this explains rapidly rising sea level – thermal expansion.

Global mean sea level rises

The new observations of the increasing loss of mass from glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets lead to predictions of global mean sea level rises of 1 m (±0.5 m) during the next century; about double the IPCC projections from 2007.

The Greenland ice sheet has been losing mass at a rate of 179 Gt/ yr since 2003. This rate of loss corresponds to a contribution to global mean sea level rise of 0.5 mm/yr; the current total global mean sea level rise is 3.1 mm/yr.

Feedbacks – Water Vapour

• Processes that are induced by climate change and that subsequently drive further warming.

• Water vapour is the most abundant greenhouse gas and makes the greatest contribution to the natural greenhouse effect on Earth.

• Because the atmosphere’s ability to contain water vapour is strongly dependent on temperature, the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is regulated by the Earth’s temperature itself, increasing as warming occurs.

• This means that water vapour follows and amplifies changes in global temperature that are induced by other causes.

Feedbacks – Ice Cover

• Rapid reduction in the area of Arctic sea ice in summer. In 2007, the minimum area covered decreased by about 2 million square kilometres as compared to previous years. In 2008, the decrease was almost as dramatic – Not covered by IPCC.

• Ice and snow reflect most of the radiation from the sun back into the atmosphere while seawater absorbs most of the radiation reaching it from the sun.

• An ice-free ocean absorbs more heat than an ice-covered ocean, so the loss of sea ice creates a “feedback” in the climate system that increases warming.

Feedbacks – Sinks

• Important feedback - “carbon sinks” - processes that absorb CO2 from the atmosphere.

• Over half of the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere by fossil fuel combustion and land use change is removed by land and ocean CO2 sinks. So, instead of CO2 conc. rising from 280 ppm in pre-industrial era to 500 ppm, it has risen to only 385 ppm.

• The fraction of human-driven CO2 emissions removed by these sinks has decreased over the last 50 years and are decreasing further.

• Several effects: increasing ocean acidification, ocean circulation changes, and water, temperature, and nutrient constraints on land CO2 uptake.

• Also, danger of inert carbon pools mobilisation and released into the atmosphere either as CO2 or methane - peatland carbon, in Arctic permafrost, which are vulnerable to warming.

Tipping points

Climate Politics

The 2°C target

1. If annual emissions remain at today’s level, greenhouse gas levels would be close to 550 ppm by 2050

2. This would mean temperature increase of 3-5°C

3. The difference in temperature between the last ice age (3 million years ago) and now is 5°C

4. The 2°C target is feasible; but it will require unprecedented global cooperation.

Drastic reduction needed: For 450 ppm (2°C) reduce 80-90% by 2050

3-truths: Climate change political and economic challenge

1. Is related to economic growth. No one has built a low carbon economy (as yet)

2. Is about sharing growth between nations and between people. The rich must reduce so that the poor can grow. Create ecological space.

3. Is about cooperation. If the rich emitted yesterday, the emerging rich world will do today. Cooperation demands equity and fairness. It is a pre-requisite for an effective climate agreement.

CO2 emissions linked to energy and linked to economic growth

Historical emissions - 1840-2006: A tonne of CO2 emitted in 1840 same value as tonne of CO2 emitted in 2008

Since 1840, 7 out of every 10 tonnes of CO2 have been emitted by the rich countries

Historical emissions amount to about 1100 tonnes of CO2 per capita for the UK and the US, compared with 66 tonnes for China and 23 tonnes for India

Is India and China the new villain?

•Between 1980-2005, the total emissions of the US were almost double that of China and more than seven times that of India.

•With just 15 per cent of the world population, rich countries account for 45 per cent of CO2 emissions

1 US citizen =

• 107 Bangladeshis• 134 Bhutanese• 19 Indians• 269 Nepalese

• Unacceptable. Need to secure ecological space for growth

Kyoto: High on rhetoric. Low on action1. Kyoto agreed to small change – 5% cuts

2. Even that failed. US walked out. Emissions from Annex I countries increased

Decreased 1.3% only because of decrease of economies under transition.

The CO2 emissions from industrialized countries excluding economies in transition have increased by 14.5% since 1990.

Cancun

• Manufacturing Consent --- threat, bribe and deals -- Wikileaks

• Cancun Agreement – Voluntary pledge and

review, Kyoto protocol on death bed, promise of US$100 billion

• Climate in jeopardy