Climate Change: From Science to Solutions 1-5 August 2016
PROGRAM DIRECTORS
Noelle E. Selin Associate Professor of Data, Systems, and Society, and Atmospheric Chemistry, MIT
Daniel Cziczo Associate Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry, MIT
CourseSummaryTheobjectiveofthiscourseistoprovideparticipantswithathoroughunderstandingofthescientificfoundationbehindanthropogenicclimatechange,itsimpactsontheEarth,andstrategiestoaddressit.Thecourseintroducesthefundamentalphysicalprocessesthatshapeclimate,focusingonthedriversofpast,present,andfutureclimatechange.Impactsofclimatechangeontheenvironmentandhumansocietieswillbehighlighted,includingeffectsontemperature,precipitation,oceanacidity,sealevel,severestorms,agriculture,biodiversity,andairquality.Mitigationapproachesandadaptationstrategies,includingtechnologydevelopment,willbeintroduced,discussed,andcritiqued.Thecoursewillconcludewithanoverviewofpolicyandgovernanceconsiderationsinachangingclimate.Non-lectureactivitieswillcomprise25%ofthecourse,andwilladdressthecontemporaryscienceofclimatemeasurements,modelsofclimatechangeandimpacts,andclimatechangepolicyandnegotiations.Takeawaysfromthiscourseinclude:
1. Understandingandexplainingthefactorsthatcontroltheearth’sclimate,includingbothnaturalandanthropogenicinfluences,andtheirrelativeimportance.
2. Synthesizingandinterpretingevidenceforclimatechangeimpactsontheenvironmentandonhumanactivities.
3. Evaluatingtechnologiesandformulatingmanagementstrategiesdesignedtomitigateandadapttoclimatechange.
4. Understanding,designing,andappraisingcollaborativepolicysolutionstoaddressgreenhousegasemissions.
DailyScheduleWewillhavefourclasssessionseachday:9-10:30AM;11AM-12:30PM;1:30-3:00PM;and3:30-5PM.(ClasswillendatnoononFriday).Coffeebreakswill(usually)be10:30-11AMand3-3:30PM,andlunch12:30-1:30PM(onyourown).Inanefforttolimitthecarbonfootprintofthiscourseandreducefoodwaste,insteadoforganizedcoffeebreaks,youwilleachreceiveareusableMITtravelmugandaTechCashcardpre-loadedwith$50.Thereisacaféonthefirstfloorofbuilding4(until3PM)andanothernearbyinLobby7whereyoucanuseTechCash.YoumayalsouseTechCashforlunchetc.–alistofallcampusdiningfacilitiesisathttp://dining.mit.edu/.Afewoff-campusoptionsalsotakeTechCash(e.g.AuBonPain–seehttp://web.mit.edu/mitcard/techcash/locations.html?cid=51&foralist).SpecialEventsWewillhavetwospecialeventsduringthiscourse:Monday,5:30-7:00PM:NetworkingHappyHouratMeadhall,4CambridgeCenterThursday,6:00PM:Dinner,EVOOrestaurant,3503rdStreet,Cambridgehttp://www.evoorestaurant.com/(dinnerincludedwithtuition)Guestsareinvitedtobotheventsbutcostsarenotincludedwithtuition.IfyouwouldliketotakeaguesttoThursday’sdinner,pleaseletProf.SelinknowbyTuesdayafternoon(costperguestwillbe$50).Also,anyinformationondietaryrequirementsorlimitationsshouldbecommunicatedbyTuesdayafternoon.IfforanyreasonyouwillnotattendtheThursdaydinner,pleaseletusknowbyTuesdayalso.Fordirectionstothetworestaurantsseeamaphere:http://bit.ly/climatemit16CoursematerialsAllcoursematerialswillbeprovidedinelectronicformattoreducepaperusage.Adetailedday-by-dayplanoflectures,activitiesandreadingsisbelow.Thoselistedasrecommendedfurtherreadingwillnotbeprovidedelectronically.
CourseInstructorsandBiosNoelleE.Selin([email protected])isAsociateProfessorofData,Systems,andSocietyandAtmosphericChemistryattheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology.ShealsoservesasAssociateDirectorofMIT’sTechnologyandPolicyProgram.Herresearchfocusesonusingatmosphericchemistrymodelingtoinformdecision-makingstrategiesonairpollution,climatechangeandmercurypollution.Prof.SelinreceivedherPh.DfromHarvardUniversityinEarthandPlanetarySciences,intheAtmosphericChemistryModelingGroup.Shedevelopedandevaluatedaglobal,3Datmosphericmodelofmercurypollution.Prof.Selinhasalsopublishedarticlesandbookchaptersontheinteractionsbetweenscienceandpolicyininternationalenvironmentalnegotiations,inparticularfocusingonglobaleffortstoregulatehazardouschemicalsandpersistentorganicpollutants.Previously,shewasalsoaresearchassociatewiththeInitiativeonScienceandTechnologyforSustainabilityatHarvard’sKennedySchoolofGovernment,avisitingresearcherattheEuropeanEnvironmentAgencyinCopenhagen,Denmark,andworkedonchemicalsissuesattheU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency.DanielJ.Cziczo([email protected])isanAssociateProfessorofAtmosphericChemistryinEarth,Atmospheric,andPlanetarySciencesandCivilandEnvironmentalEngineeringatMIT.Themajorfocusofhisresearchistheinterrelationshipofparticulatematterandcloudformation.HisresearchutilizeslaboratoryandfieldstudiestoelucidatehowsmallparticlesinteractwithwatervaportoformdropletsandicecrystalswhichareimportantplayersintheEarth’sclimatesystem.Experimentsincludeusingsmallcloudchambersinthelaboratorytomimicatmosphericconditionsthatleadtocloudformationandobservingcloudsinsitufromremotemountaintopsitesorthroughtheuseofresearchaircraft.DavidMcGee([email protected])isKerr-McgeeCareerDevelopmentAssistantProfessorintheDepartmentofEarth,AtmosphericandPlanetarySciencesatMIT.Prof.McGee’sresearchfocusesonunderstandingtheatmosphere’sresponsetopastclimatechanges.Bydocumentingpastchangesinprecipitationandwindsusinggeochemicalmeasurementsofstalagmites,lakedepositsandmarinesedimentsandinterpretingtheserecordsinthelightofmodelsandtheory,heaimstoofferdata-basedinsightsintothepatterns,paceandmagnitudeofpasthydroclimatechanges.Hisprimarytoolismeasurementsofuranium-seriesisotopes,whichprovidepreciseuranium-thoriumdatesforstalagmitesandlakedepositsandallowreconstructionsofwindblowndustemissionandtransportusingmarinesediments.MickFollows([email protected])isAssociateProfessorintheDepartmentofEarth,AtmosphericandPlanetarySciencesandCivilandEnvironmentalEngineeringatMIT.Prof.Followsseekstounderstandhowtheinteractionsofphysical,chemicalandbiologicalprocessesmodulatethestructureandfunctionofmarinemicrobialcommunitiesandregulatetheoceaniccyclesofcarbonandnutrientelementsonglobalandclimatescales.Usingidealizedtheory,numericalmodelsandtheanalysisofobserveddataheandhisgroupseektoidentifytherelationshipsofindividualsandcommunitiestotheirenvironment,connectingcellular-scaleprocessestoglobalmicrobialcommunitystructure.Inparticular,histeamhascreatedamarineecosystemmodelthat,wheninitializedwithmanyphytoplanktontypeswhosephysiologicaltraitshavebeendeterminedstochastically,resultsinemergentcommunitystructureandbiogeographyconsistentwithknowndistributionsofmicrobesintheglobaloceans.TimCronin([email protected])isanAssistantProfessorofAtmosphericScienceinEarth,Atmospheric,andPlanetarySciencesatMIT.Thefocusofhisresearchisontheroleofregional-scaleatmosphericdynamics,radiativetransfer,andcoupledsurface-atmosphereinteractionsintheclimatesystem.Hecombinespencil-and-papertheoryandsimplifiednumericalmodelsoftheatmospheretotesthypothesesaboutclimatesensitivity,climatesofthedistantpast,andinteractionsbetweenweatherandclimate.FrancisO’Sullivan([email protected])isDirectorofResearchfortheMITEnergyInitiative,andaSeniorlecturerattheMITSloanSchoolofManagement.Heworksontopicsrelatedtoenergytechnologies,policyandeconomics.Hiscurrentresearchisfocusedontheevolvingnatureoftheelectricpowersystemandthechallengesassociatedwiththeintegrationofincreasedlevelsofrenewablegeneration,particularsolar.Healso
studiesissuesrelatingtounconventionaloilandgasresources,particularlytheproductivityandeconomicsofNorthAmerica’sshaleresourcesandtheglobalgasmarketdynamics.Hehaswrittenandspokenwidelyonthesetopics,andhasmadepresentationstothePresident’sOfficeofScienceandTechnologyPolicy,theEIA,theEPA,theBrookingsInstitute,theBipartisanPolicyCenter,theCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies,theNationalGovernors’Association,theNationalAssociationofRegulatedUtilityCommissioners,atCERAWeek,theAmericanPhysicalSociety,theAmericanGeophysicalUnionandtoarangeofotheracademic,policyandindustryforums.Heisaleadauthorofboththe2011MITFutureofNaturalGasStudy,andthe2015MITFutureofSolarEnergystudy.Dr.O’SullivanisamemberoftheU.S.NationalAcademies’RoundtableonScienceandTechnologyforSustainability,andisaSeniorAssociatewiththeEnergyandNationalSecurityProgramattheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies.HeiscurrentlyadvisingtheU.S.DepartmentofEnergyastheydeveloptheirQuadrennialEnergyReview.HehasalsoservedasamemberoftheU.S.SecretaryofEnergy’sworkinggrouponmethaneemissionsandasamemberofthescientificadvisoryboardfortheEnvironmentalDefenseFund’smethaneemissionscampaign.PriortojoiningMIT,Dr.O’SullivanwasaconsultantwithMcKinsey&Company,whereheworkedonengagementsthatincludedinvestmentanalysisandriskmanagement,strategicplanning,andoperationsintheprivateequity,oilandgas,electricutility,andrenewableenergysectors.Dr.O’SullivanreceivedhisPh.D.,E.E.,andS.M.degreesfromtheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,andhisB.E.degreefromtheNationalUniversityofIreland,allinelectricalengineering.KennethStrzepek([email protected])KennethStrzepekisaResearchScientistatMIT’sJointProgramontheScienceandPolicyofGlobalChange,AdjunctProfessorofPublicPolicyattheKennedySchoolofGovernmentatHarvardUniversity,Non-ResidentSeniorResearchFellowattheUNU-WorldInstituteforDevelopmentEconomicsResearchandProfessorEmeritusofCivil,EnvironmentalandArchitecturalEngineering,UniversityofColorado.ProfessorStrzepekhasspentover40yearsasaresearcherandpractitioneratthenexusofengineering,environmentalandeconomicssystems.HehasworkedforarangeofnationalgovernmentsaswellastheUnitedNations,theWorldBank,AsianDevelopmentBankandUSAID.HewasaleadauthorontheSecondandFifthIPCCAssessment,theMillenniumEcosystemAssessment,theWorldWaterVision,andtheUNWorldWaterDevelopmentReport.HewastheUSAIDScientificLiaisonOfficeonWaterandClimateChangetotheCGIAR.HewasanArthurMaass-GilbertWhiteFellowattheInstituteforWaterResourcesoftheUSArmyCorpsofEngineersandreceivedtheDepartmentofInteriorCitizen’sAwardforInnovationintheapplicationsofSystemsAnalysistoWaterManagement.Heisaco-recipientoftheZayedInternationalPrizefortheEnvironmentandasaleadauthorforIPCCheisaco-recipientofthe2007NobelPeacePrize.HegraduatedfromMITwithaS.B.in1975,aS.M.in1977,andaPh.D.inWaterResourceEngineering,andhasanM.A.inEconomicsin2004fromtheUniversityofColoradoandisaPhDCandidateinEconomicsattheUniversityofHamburg.PaulKirshen(Paul.Kirshen@umb.eduisaProfessorintheSchoolfortheEnvironmentatUMassBostonandAcademicDirectoroftheSustainableSolutionsLabatUMassBoston.PreviouslyhewasafacultymemberattheUniversityofNewHampshireandTuftsUniversity.HewasaLeadAuthorfortheFifthAssessmentReportoftheUNIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(WGII,Chapter26,NorthAmerica)andthe2014USNationalClimateAssessment(CoastalZoneDevelopmentandEcosystems).Heworksatscalesrangingfromlocaltointernational.PresentlyisheavilyinvolvedinthevulnerabilityandadaptationplanningforCambridgeandBoston.HereceivedhisScBinEngineeringfromBrownUniversityandhisMSandPhDinCivilEngineeringfromtheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology.
ClassOutlineMonday,August1:TheScientificBasis9:00-9:15:LogisticsandIntroduction(Prof.Selin)9:30-10:30:TheScienceofClimateChange:AnIntroduction(Prof.Cziczo)
“WhatWeKnow”,AAASReportIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(downloadatwww.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/)“SummaryforPolicyMakers”Recommendedfurtherreading--Archer“GlobalWarming:UnderstandingtheForecast”,Wiley&Sons,“TheWarmingPapers”,ArcherandPierrehumberteds.,Wiley-Blackwell
11:00-12:30:ClimateChangethroughHistory:apaleoclimateperspective(Prof.McGee)
IPCCAR5Chapter5(startwithexecutivesummary):Masson-Delmotte,V.,M.Schulz,A.Abe-Ouchi,J.Beer,A.Ganopolski,J.F.GonzálezRouco,E.Jansen,K.Lambeck,J.Luterbacher,T.Naish,T.Osborn,B.Otto-Bliesner,T.Quinn,R.Ramesh,M.Rojas,X.ShaoandA.Timmermann,2013:InformationfromPaleoclimateArchives.In:ClimateChange2013:ThePhysicalScienceBasis.ContributionofWorkingGroupItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange[Stocker,T.F.,D.Qin,G.-K.Plattner,M.Tignor,S.K.Allen,J.Boschung,A.Nauels,Y.Xia,V.BexandP.M.Midgley(eds.)].CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UnitedKingdomandNewYork,NY,USA.J.C.Zachos,G.R.Dickens,R.E.Zeebe,AnearlyCenozoicperspectiveongreenhousewarmingandcarbon-cycledynamics.Nature.451,279–283(2008).Recommendedfurtherreading--forstudentsseekingadeeperexplorationofpaleoclimatethatisstillfairlymodestinlength:Paleoclimate.M.Bender.PrincetonUniversityPress,2013.
1:30-3:00:Activity:Measurementsofclimatechange(Prof.Cziczo) Pickupinclassroom,meetsin54-13193:30-5:00:ClimateChangeModelsandFutureProjections(Prof.Selin)
Sterman,J.D.,2008.Riskcommunicationonclimate:mentalmodelsandmassbalance.Science,322(5901),pp.532-533.Chapter7:“TheGreenhouseEffect.”In:D.Jacob,IntroductiontoAtmosphericChemistry,Princeton,1999:http://acmg.seas.harvard.edu/people/faculty/djj/book/bookchap7.htmlIPCCAR5Chapter9:Flato,G.,J.Marotzke,B.Abiodun,P.Braconnot,S.C.Chou,W.Collins,P.Cox,F.Driouech,S.Emori,V.Eyring,C.Forest,P.Gleckler,E.Guilyardi,C.Jakob,V.Kattsov,C.ReasonandM.Rummukainen,2013:EvaluationofClimateModels.In:ClimateChange2013:ThePhysicalScienceBasis.ContributionofWorkingGroupItotheFifthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange[Stocker,T.F.,D.Qin,G.-K.Plattner,M.Tignor,S.K.Allen,J.Boschung,A.Nauels,Y.Xia,V.BexandP.M.Midgley(eds.)].CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UnitedKingdomandNewYork,NY,USA.
5:30-7:00:NetworkingHappyHourTuesday,August2:ImpactsofClimateChange9:00-10:30:Temperature,Precipitation,AirQuality,Health,Wildfires(Prof.Cziczo)
AttributionofExtremeWeatherEventsintheContextofClimateChange,NASReportWildfires&Globalclimatechange:TheImportanceofClimateChangeforFutureWildfireScenariosintheWesternUnitedStates,PewCenterReportQuantitativeRiskAssessment(oftheeffectsofonselectedcausesofdeath,2030sand2050s),WHOReport
11-12:30:EcologyandCarbonCycleinaChangingOcean(Prof.Follows)
TheOceanicSinkforAnthropogenicCO2,Sabineetal.,Science,2004OceanAcidification:TheOtherCO2Problem,Doneyetal.,Ann.Rev.Mar.Sci.,2009
1:30-3:00:ClimateChangeImpactsandAdaptationinAgriculture(Prof.Strzepek)
LookingBeyondtheHorizon,WilliamR.Sutton,JitendraP.Srivastava,andJamesE.Neumann,WorldBankReportTheHiddenCostofNo-ActiononClimateChange:TheRiskstoThermalElectricPowerGenerationintheUnitedStates,KennethStrzepeketal.EnhancingtheClimateResilienceofAfrica’sInfrastructure,Cervignietal.,WorldBank
3:30-5:00:ClimateChangeImpactsandAdaptationonEnergySystems(Prof.Strzepek)Wednesday,August3:Impacts(cont.);Adaptation,Mitigation,andTechnology9:00-10:30:Severestorms(Prof.Cronin)
Zipser,E.J.,Cecil,D.J.,Liu,C.,Nesbitt,S.W.andYorty,D.P.,2006.WherearethemostintensethunderstormsonEarth?.BulletinoftheAmericanMeteorologicalSociety,87(8),p.1057.O’Gorman,P.A.,2015.Precipitationextremesunderclimatechange.Currentclimatechangereports,1(2),pp.49-59.
11:00-12:30:RiskandUncertainty:Howmuchchangeisneeded?(Prof.Selin)
Webster,M.,Forest,C.,Reilly,J.,Babiker,M.,Kicklighter,D.,Mayer,M.,Prinn,R.,Sarofim,M.,Sokolov,A.,Stone,P.andWang,C.,2003.Uncertaintyanalysisofclimatechangeandpolicyresponse.ClimaticChange,61(3),pp.295-320.Sterman,J.,Fiddaman,T.,Franck,T.,Jones,A.,McCauley,S.,Rice,P.,Sawin,E.andSiegel,L.,2012.Climateinteractive:theC-ROADSclimatepolicymodel.SystemDynamicsReview,28(3),pp.295-305.
1:30-2:30Adaptationstrategies:CoastalZones(Prof.Kirshen)
3:00-5:00:Activity:Coastalzoneplanning(Prof.Kirshen)Thursday,August4:Adaptation,Mitigation,andTechnology9:00-10:30:Geoengineering:ReasonableConceptsorScienceFiction?(Prof.Cziczo)
“ClimateIntervention:Carbondioxideremovalandreliablesequestration”,NationalResearchCouncil,2015(downloadathttp://www.nap.edu/catalog/18805/climate-intervention-carbon-dioxide-removal-and-reliable-sequestration)“ClimateIntervention:ReflectingsunlighttocoolEarth”,NationalResearchCouncil,2015(samesite)
11:00-12:30:TechnologyandManagementSolutions:ConceptsandApproaches(Dr.O’Sullivan)1:30-5:00:Activity:Energyplanningandinvestment(Prof.Selin)6:00:CoursedinnerFriday,August5:PolicyResponses9:00-10:00:Overviewofregulatoryandpolicystrategies(Prof.Selin)
Selin,H.andVanDeveer,S.D.,2015.Globalclimatechangegovernance:thelongroadtoParis.Environmentalpolicy:newdirectionsforthetwenty-firstcentury.9thed.ThousandOaks,CA:Sage,pp.288-310.Hopkin,M.“BeyondParis:WhatwasreallyachievedattheCOP21climatesummit,andwhatnext?”TheConversation,December2015.
10:00-12:00:Activity:climatenegotiationsimulation(Prof.Selin)12:00–12:30:Wrap-upandadjourn(Prof.Selin,Prof.Cziczo)
