Climate Change Reality Check

© Daniel Beltra / Greenpeace

How bad is climate change by now?

How bad can it get?

What can we do about it?

Here’s the story in short.*

* = The findings are derived mainly from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),

complemented with some other recent studies.

Storm near Fort Dodge, Iowa, USA. © Greenpeace / Daniel Beltrá

Climate change, caused by our greenhouse gas pollution, is already widespread. Impacts can be detected on all continents and across the ocean. (IPCC, 2013)

Glacier Pio XI, Patagonia. © Greenpeace / Daniel Beltrá

“The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the

amounts of snow and ice have diminished,

sea level has risen, and the concentrations of

greenhouse gases have increased.”(IPCC, 2013)

Hu

rric

ane

San

dy

Aft

erm

ath

in N

ew J

ers

ey. ©

Gre

en

pea

ce /

Tim

Au

bry

Oceans have absorbed more than 90% of the heat accumulating in the atmosphere, driving species towards

cooler waters. CO2 is now causing oceans to acidify at a rate that is likely the fastest in 300 million years, posing a serious

threat to marine life. (IPCC, 2013; WMO 2014)

"The combination of acidification, warming and deoxygenation that we are seeing - the so-called 'deadly trio' is unprecedented in the carbon record. It poses a serious threat not just to the ocean but to the Earth system services it supports and there can be no stronger imperative for action by governments and others to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the lowest possible levels in the shortest amount of time".

Alex Rogers, IPSO Scientific Director and Professor of Conservation Biology, University of Oxford

Ala

cran

esR

eef,

Mex

ico

. © L

uis

San

do

val /

Gre

enp

eace

Species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns and abundances.

(IPCC, 2013)

Golden Toad © U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

Negative impacts on crop yields have been more common than positive impacts. Climate extremes in key producing regions have resulted in periods of rapid food and cereal price increases. (IPCC, 2014)

A rice field destroyed by salt water from huge tidal surges in Sundarbans, India. © Greenpeace / Peter Caton

Since the 1950s, many of

the observed changes are

unprecedented over decades to millennia.

(IPCC, 2013)Amazon Drought, October 2005. © Greenpeace / Daniel Beltrá

There are alarming signs of things getting rapidly worse.Cyclone Phailin Aftermath in India. © Peter Caton / Greenpeace

“The world experienced

unprecedented high-impact climate extremes during the 2001-

2010 decade”

(WMO, 2013)

Steppe Fire in Russia. © Greenpeace / Igor Podgorny

From 2002 to 2011, the Greenland ice

sheet lost ice six times fasteron average compared to the decade

that went before it. (IPCC, 2013)

Greenland melt lake. © Greenpeace / Nick Cobbing

Since 1993, on average, sea levels have been rising nearly twice as fast as during the past century. (IPCC, 2013)

Betio village, Kiribati. © Greenpeace / Jeremy Sutton-Hibbert

The Arctic sea ice extent has been diminishing significantly faster than projected. (IPCC, 2013)

Ice Floe in the Arctic. © Daniel Beltrá / Greenpeace

In May 2014 NASA-UCI study reported: glaciers in the Amundsen Sea sector of the West Antarctica

have passed a point of no return. The melting is now unstoppable and will

eventually cause sea levels to rise by 1.2 meters. The loss of ice could also trigger the collapse of the rest of the West Antarctic ice sheet, which would result in a sea level rise of 3 to 5 meters. (NASA) NOTE! This finding is too fresh to be covered in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report.For more information, see NASA Glaciologist Eric Rignot’s blog here: http://goo.gl/LhS0Ql ©

Dan

iel B

eltr

a/

Gre

en

pea

ce

IT’S US

"It is extremely likely (95%) that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century." (IPCC, 2013)

© Simon Lim / Greenpeace

The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. (IPCC, 2013)

Activists protesting a new coal-fired power plant at the Maasvlakte in Rotterdam. © Greenpeace / Joël van Houdt

Most emissions result from the burning of fossil fuels. From 2000 to 2010 emissions grew particularly fast,

largely due to the increased burning of coal. (IPCC, 2014)

Qinhuangdao Coal Port in China. © Greenpeace / Liu Feiyue

The rest of emissions are largely caused by deforestation, agriculture and other land-use.

(IPCC, 2014)

Farmed land on completely deforested area in the Amazon. © Greenpeace / Daniel Beltrá

How bad can it get?

Child on Flooded Street in Porto Velho, Brazil. © Lunae Parracho / Greenpeace

How bad it gets is up to us

Every ton of oil, coal or gas we burn or forest we destroy is making the situation worse. With continued emissions we could witness 4-5°C warming or more by the end of the century. That is multiple times the warming experienced to date and approaches the difference between today and the last ice age, happening during one person’s lifetime instead of millennia. (IPCC, 2014; WB 2012)

Dukhdev Tikadar, living in Ghoramara island, India, is one of the many people affected by sea level rise. © Greenpeace / Peter Caton

Further warming threatens the fundamentals of human security: homes, food, water, income, health and livelihoods. (IPCC, 2014)

Aft

erm

ath

of

Typ

ho

on

Hai

yan

in t

he

Ph

ilip

pin

es. ©

Mat

imti

man

/ G

ree

np

eac

e

war

Indirectly, climate change increases the risk of violent conflicts in the form of civil war and inter-group violence by amplifying poverty and economic shocks. (IPCC, 2014)

© Greenpeace / Pierre Gleizes

"There is no one on Earth who escapes the effects of climate change.” (Michael Oppenheimer, IPCC Lead Author)

Moorland, Somerset, UK. © Adam Gray/SWNS.com

What can we do about it?

Protest at Ministry of Energy in Bangkok. © Greenpeace / Vinai Dithajohn

If we act fast to cut emissions, catastrophic and irreversible impacts can still be avoided.

Warming can still be limited to well below 2°C by 2100.

Solutions are more available than ever before.Rainforest in Tasmania. © Markus Mauthe / Greenpeace

In just a few years, renewable energy technologies have demonstrated substantial performance improvements and cost reductions, and a growing number of technologies have achieved a level of maturity to enable deployment at a significant scale. (IPCC, 2014)

The PS20 solar tower plant at Sanlucar la Mayor outside Seville, Spain. © Markel Redondo / Greenpeace

“The use of renewable energy is often associated with co-benefits, including the reduction of air pollution, local employment opportunities, fewer severe accidents compared to some other energy supply technologies, as well as improved energy access and security.” (IPCC, 2014)

Recipe for action (IPCC findings made easy)

1. Head for zero emissions, starting now

• There is no safe level of greenhouse gas pollution. Eventually, emissions must be brought to zero.

• First priority is to stop emissions growth within a few years and get them to a rapidly declining trend.

• The costs of action will be moderate, while the costs of inaction would be unthinkable.

2. Switch from dirty to clean energy

• Conventional fossil fuel technologies burning coal, oil and gas, must be phased out in the coming decades and replaced with zero and low-carbon energy technologies.

• The vast majority of known fossil fuel reserves must remain in the ground.

• Improving energy efficiency in buildings, transport and industry has big potential and comes with many benefits.

• During the next 5 to 15 years, investment trends and financial flows must be shifted away from fossil fuel extraction and technologies into solutions.

Offshore wind farm Tuno Knob, Denmark. © Greenpeace / Kate Davison

“Renewable energy is a real option. Half of the world’s new electricity generating capacity in 2012 came from renewables. We also have tremendous opportunities to improve energy efficiency. And we can further reduce emissions by stopping deforestation.”

(IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri at the New York Climate Summit 2014)

Wind Farms in Iowa. © Karuna Ang / Greenpeace

• Protecting forests is crucial both for reducing warming and for adapting to it.

• Healthy forests and oceans are better at coping with the stress caused by changing climate.

3. Protect forests and oceans to protects ourselves

Tropical Rainforest in Brazil (Itaqui, Parana). © Markus Mauthe / Greenpeace

4. Heal our food system

• Our food system needs to adapt to a changing climate and limited resources.

• Ecological farming practices help farmers to increase production in a way that protects and enhances soil, water, and biodiversity and contributes to greenhouse gas mitigation.

Organic Farming in Negros. © Andri Tambunan / Greenpeace

5. Face the true scale of climate change

• We will have to adapt to the changes that we can no longer prevent. Future risks must be assessed in a realistic manner.

• The more fossil fuels we burn and the more forests we destroy, the bigger and more unpredictable the risks, and the harder they will be to adapt to.

• At some point, the impacts could become impossible to adapt to.

Child in the Amazon near Santarem. © Markus Mauthe / Greenpeace

There’s a better, cleaner and safer future that is already unfolding around the world. But we must speed up the transition away from fossil fuels to clean, renewable energy.

Children in Dharnai Village in India. © Vivek M. / Greenpeace

Photo by Eduardo Munoz/Reuters

Let’s just do it!