Climate Change Risks, Climate Change Risks, Vulnerabilities and AdaptationVulnerabilities and Adaptation
City of Fredericton, NBCity of Fredericton, NB
Michael D. Riley, P. Eng.President, Riley Environment Limited
Dr. Shawn DaltonDirector, Environment & Sustainable Development Research Centre,
UNB
BackgroundBackground
Why Fredericton?
CCIAP Project A1189- Costing the Impacts of Climate Change in Atlantic CanadaEngaged populace fully aware of Climate Change (Green Matters)
Fredericton’s goal – to be first city in Canada in compliance with Kyoto targets
Strong desire of Fredericton residents for a more aggressive approach to Climate Change adaptation
Fully supportive municipal staff
Project GoalsProject Goals
Stakeholder input:
◦
Potential climate change risks and vulnerabilities
◦
Climate change adaptation measures for City of Fredericton
Ensure “bottom-up” rather than “top down” approach
Project TeamProject TeamPartnership with consultant, academia, NGO,
and federal government◦
Consultant: Riley Environment Limited
◦
Academia: Environment and Sustainable Development Research
Centre, UNB
◦
NGO: Fredericton Area Watersheds Association
◦
Federal Government: Environment Canada
Funding by Province of New Brunswick
(Environmental Trust Fund)
Adaptation versus MitigationAdaptation versus Mitigation
Adaptation:“building resilience into our system by increasing our ability to
deal with
current climate, preparing to take advantage of new opportunities
and reducing risks and costs of future climate change (NRCan)”
Mitigation:
“anthropogenic intervention to reduce sources or enhance the sinks of
greenhouse gases”
Project ActivitiesProject Activities
Phase I: Climate Change Scenarios
Phase II: Stakeholder Mobilization
Phase III: Charette
Phase I: Climate Change ScenariosPhase I: Climate Change Scenarios Environment CanadaEnvironment Canada
Global surface warming for four emission scenarios (IPCC SPM.5, IPCC (2008))
Grid for CGCM3 Global Climate Model showing selected grid square
over New Brunswick (from CCCSN)
Mean Temperature Change (Mean Temperature Change (ººC) C) –– FrederictonFredericton
2020’s 2050’s 2080’sWinter 1.3 3.7 4.6Spring 1.6 2.7 3.8Summer 1.3 2.4 3.2Autumn 1.0 2.2 3.1
2020’s 2050’s 2080’sWinter 1.1 17.4 24.1Spring 9.7 16.1 18.1Summer -3.0 -2.2 -5.6Autumn 0.1 4.8 7.0
Mean Precipitation Change (%)Mean Precipitation Change (%)-- FrederictonFredericton
Heating and Cooling Degree DaysHeating and Cooling Degree Days-- FrederictonFredericton
Heating Degree Days
Cooling Degree Days
1971-2000 4742 141.62020’s 4245 242.72050’s 3794 331.32080’s 3524 411.6
Growing DaysGrowing Days--FrederictonFrederictonGrowing
Degree Days (>5 ºC)
Growing Season Length
(Days)
Freeze-Free Season (Days)
1971-
20001774 162.3 187
2020’s 2110 188 2162050’s 2364 206 2322080’s 2579 277 247
Phase II: Stakeholder MobilizationPhase II: Stakeholder Mobilization
Presentation to City Council
Meeting with City Staff
Web page “adaptationfrederiction.ca”
Town hall Meetings: February 12 and March 18, 2008
The Daily Gleaner
CBC Radio
Phase III: CharettePhase III: Charette
March 13, 2008 Wu Conference Centre, UNB
27 invited stakeholders participated◦
NGOs◦
Businesses◦
Consultants◦
Home builders and real estate agents◦
Power company◦
Alternative energy and fuel◦
Government
Risks and VulnerabilitiesRisks and VulnerabilitiesSOCIOECONOMIC
Business location impacted by transportation risks (automobile)Change in social behavior at basic level. Climate change affects relationships among peopleChange in distribution of precipitation throughout year will impact businessesFuture changes in regulatory climate (carbon cap, trade) are unknownGlobalization has caused all consumers to be price sensitive
BUILT ENVIRONMENT/HOUSING
Storm events impact building envelope Increased temperatures will lead to more discomfortIncreased precipitation - more humiditySite buildings considering weather, transportation connections, and solar controlSocial impacts of increased cooling and heating, in particular impacts the poorNeed help to retrofit/ upgrade existing housing stock Disproportionate burden placed on those least able to bear cost
Risks and VulnerabilitiesRisks and Vulnerabilities
INFRASTRUCTURE
Increase in population coupled with drought conditions test water supply capacity
Decreased surface water quality due to decrease in dilution (rivers)
Increased peak runoff -storm water management
Shift in summer/winter maintenance budgets
Variability in climate will affect travel patterns
Increased road construction costs
ENVIRONMENTIncreased length of summer sports season; shorter winter sports season
Fewer snow days will impact skiing, snowmobiling, etc.
Increased demand for water recreation, recreational facilities will increase
Potential for more forest fires in parks/neighborhoods
Adaptation Measures: Adaptation Measures: Built Environment & HousingBuilt Environment & Housing
Housing with grey water systems
Neighbourhoods and housing taking
advantage of renewable energy
sources, such as geothermal
Incentives, such as tax breaks to
encourage such sustainable new and
retrofitted housing
Retrofit existing homes and
buildings
for energy conservation
Revise Building Codes
Adaptation Measures: Adaptation Measures: Planning & Sustainable DevelopmentPlanning & Sustainable Development
Maintain existing wetlands (wetlands store water)
New policies for, site preparation, landscaping, lawn construction
Limit amount of garbage/household through user fees
Economic incentives required to
encourage sustainable
development (tax breaks)
Municipalities must take lead role
Adaptation Measures:Adaptation Measures: TransportationTransportation
Encourage bicycle and pedestrian mobility
Improved trail and road system. More facilities to support
pedestrian/bicycle (e.g. bike racks, public showers)
Provide facilities to reduce barriers to bicycle use (bike racks
around town)
Close downtown streets to automobiles
Regional daily bus system to outlying areas
Adaptation Measures:Adaptation Measures: Parks & RecreationParks & Recreation
Clean up forests, parks, multi-age
stands
Shade/ protection from winter wind
Clean up river, sand beach near green
More recreational facilities
More all weather fields (plastic skating
surface York Arena)
Adaptation Measures:Adaptation Measures: EducationEducation
Public education on climate change
Clear terminology definitions (carbon footprint, carbon credit,
carbon tax)
Teach children to educate adults
Establish Research Chair - Green Planning, Architecture and
Design
Advertise innovative buildings (Convention Centre
a LEED building)
ConclusionsConclusions
Stakeholders fully aware of climate change (no more Al
Gore)
Stakeholders willing to make to social changes necessary to
adapt to climate change
Stakeholders looking to government for leadership
Highest ranked priority - improving our building stock
(commercial and residential)
Subsequent priorities - sustainable development and
transportation
Thanks to:Thanks to:
City of Fredericton staff
Green Matters Campaign staff
Volunteers attendees of public meetings and charette
Province of New Brunswick
Environment Canada
Questions?Questions?
