Climate Change Scenarios Climate Change Scenarios Requirement for Requirement for

BangladeshBangladesh

Dr. A.K.M. Saiful IslamDr. A.K.M. Saiful Islam

Associate ProfessorAssociate ProfessorInstitute of Water and Flood ManagementInstitute of Water and Flood ManagementBangladesh University of Engineering and Bangladesh University of Engineering and TechnologyTechnology

OutlineOutline

Overview of IWFM and BUETOverview of IWFM and BUET

Vulnerabilities and natural hazards in Vulnerabilities and natural hazards in BangladeshBangladesh

Problems to assess future Hazards and Problems to assess future Hazards and Risks of BangladeshRisks of Bangladesh

Requirements of Climate Change ScenariosRequirements of Climate Change Scenarios

Bangladesh University of Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology Engineering and Technology

(BUET)(BUET)

BUET has been established in 1962.BUET has been established in 1962.

Yearly intake Undergraduate is 900 and Yearly intake Undergraduate is 900 and Masters and PhD programs is 1000. About Masters and PhD programs is 1000. About 5,500 students are pursuing undergraduate 5,500 students are pursuing undergraduate and postgraduate studies in Engineering, and postgraduate studies in Engineering, Architecture, Planning and Science. Architecture, Planning and Science.

500 Teachers in 16 Teaching Departments 500 Teachers in 16 Teaching Departments under 5 Faculties and 3 Institutes. under 5 Faculties and 3 Institutes.

http://www.buet.ac.bd/http://www.buet.ac.bd/

Institute of Water and Flood Institute of Water and Flood ManagementManagement

Established in 1947 to Established in 1947 to pursues research and pursues research and capacity development capacity development in the field of water in the field of water and flood and flood management.management.

16 Full time Faculty 16 Full time Faculty members specialized members specialized in water and in water and environment.environment.

Academic ActivitiesAcademic Activities

Offered Ph.D., M. Sc. and Post Graduate Offered Ph.D., M. Sc. and Post Graduate Diploma in Water Resources Diploma in Water Resources Development. Development.

Conduct short courses.Conduct short courses.

Publish Research Bulletin. Publish Research Bulletin.

Organize International conference ICWFM Organize International conference ICWFM 20092009

Research…Research… Development of a Water Resources Model as a Decision Development of a Water Resources Model as a Decision

Support Tool for National Water Management.Support Tool for National Water Management.

Improving Flood Forecasting of Bangladesh using Improving Flood Forecasting of Bangladesh using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Remotely Sensed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Remotely Sensed Rainfall Data.Rainfall Data.

Water Impact Study of Atmospheric Brown Clouds.Water Impact Study of Atmospheric Brown Clouds.

Risk-based Evaluation of Brahmaputra Water Risk-based Evaluation of Brahmaputra Water Development in meeting Future Water Demand.Development in meeting Future Water Demand.

Impact of Climate and Sea Level Change in Part of Impact of Climate and Sea Level Change in Part of Indian Sub-Continent.   Indian Sub-Continent.  

Climate Change Study CellClimate Change Study Cell

IWFM has established a IWFM has established a climate change study cell climate change study cell in 2008 in 2008

The vision of the Cell is to The vision of the Cell is to establish itself as the establish itself as the premier knowledge premier knowledge center on climate change center on climate change risk and adaptation for risk and adaptation for Bangladesh.Bangladesh.

Launching CeremonyOn March 08, 2009

Chief Guest was Minister of Disaster Mng.

http://http://teacher.buet.ac.bd/diriwfm/climateteacher.buet.ac.bd/diriwfm/climate//

Bangladesh: A south Asian Bangladesh: A south Asian CountryCountry

Topography of BangladeshTopography of Bangladesh

Bay of Bengal

Himalays

India Bangladesh

Natural Vulnerabilities of Natural Vulnerabilities of BangladeshBangladesh

FloodsFloods CycloneCyclone DroughtsDroughts Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise SalinitySalinity River ErosionRiver Erosion

Too much water during Too much water during monsoon monsoon

More FloodsMore Floods

F l_ p r o n e .s h pS e v e r e R iv e r F lo o d i n gM o d e r a te R i v e r F l o o d in gL o w R i v e r F l o o d i n gS e v e r e F la s h F l o o d i n gM o d e r a te F l a s h F l o o d in gL o w F la s h F l o o d i n gS e v e r e T i d a l S u r g eM o d e r a te T id a l S u r g eN o t F lo o d P r o n e

Water shortage during dry periods More Drought

EXISTING DROUGHT

DROUGHT CLASSES (RABI SEASON)

Very Severe Drought

Severe Drought

Moderate Drought

Less Moderate Drought

Slight Drought

Very Slight to Nil

Severe & Moderate

Moderate & Less Moderate

Sunderbans

Forest

ADDITIONAL DROUGHT PRONE AREAS IN 2030

ADDITIONAL DROUGHT PRONE AREAS IN 2075

CycloneCyclone

Because of the funnel Because of the funnel shaped coast of the Bay shaped coast of the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh of Bengal, Bangladesh very often becomes the very often becomes the landing ground of landing ground of cyclones formed in the cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal. Bay of Bengal.

Till today, a total of 174 Till today, a total of 174 severe cyclones (with severe cyclones (with wind speeds of more than wind speeds of more than 54 km/hr) formed in the 54 km/hr) formed in the Bay of Bengal. Bay of Bengal.

Recent Cyclone SIDRRecent Cyclone SIDR

Formed November 11, 2007Enter to land November 15, 2007Dissipated November 16, 2007Highest winds 215 km/h (130 mph) Lowest pressure 944 hPa (mbar)Fatalities ≥3,447Damage $450 million (2007 USD)Areas affected Bangladesh and WB, India

Recent Cyclone SIDRRecent Cyclone SIDR

SatelliteImage

Some photographs after cyclone passed over the coast

Sundarbans

Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise

Summary of Climate Summary of Climate Change induced disastersChange induced disasters

Increase of intensity and duration of floods, Increase of intensity and duration of floods, water logging, flash flood.water logging, flash flood.

Increase of moisture stress (droughts)Increase of moisture stress (droughts) Intensified storm surge, wave heights, Intensified storm surge, wave heights,

erratic precipitationerratic precipitation Salinity intrusion (100 km inside the Salinity intrusion (100 km inside the

country during dry season)country during dry season) Slow-onset impacts (salinization, dryness, Slow-onset impacts (salinization, dryness,

ecosystem degradation etc)ecosystem degradation etc) Sea Level rise up to 69 cm. Sea Level rise up to 69 cm.

Need for Future Risk Need for Future Risk AssessmentAssessment

General Circulation ModelGeneral Circulation Model Regional Circulation ModelRegional Circulation Model Statistical DownscalingStatistical Downscaling Impact studies Impact studies

Steps of assessing impact of Steps of assessing impact of climate changeclimate change

Regional Climate Change Regional Climate Change Modeling in Bangladesh Modeling in Bangladesh

PRECIS regional PRECIS regional climate modeling climate modeling developed by Hadley developed by Hadley Center, UK is now Center, UK is now running in Climate running in Climate Change Study Cell at Change Study Cell at IWFM,BUET.IWFM,BUET.

Currently running Currently running baseline (1960-baseline (1960-1990) and A1B 1990) and A1B (1949-2100) (1949-2100) scenarios over the scenarios over the Bangladesh region.Bangladesh region.

Bangladesh region for Bangladesh region for PRECIS PRECIS

Grids: 88 x 88 Grids: 88 x 88 Spatial Res. 25kmSpatial Res. 25km Predict up to 3 hourly Predict up to 3 hourly Needs more than 100 Needs more than 100

GB free space.GB free space. Uses LBC data from Uses LBC data from

GCM (e.g. HadCM3)GCM (e.g. HadCM3) Data available for A2, Data available for A2,

B2, A1B scenarios. B2, A1B scenarios.

Predicting Rainfall Predicting Rainfall

[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]

2030 2050

Predicting Maximum Predicting Maximum Temperature Temperature

[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]

2030 2050

Predicting Minimum Predicting Minimum Temperature Temperature

[Output of PRECIS model using SRES A2 scenario]

2030 2050

Climatic Condition of Climatic Condition of Bangladesh Bangladesh

Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh Mean daily temperature of Bangladesh has increased with a rate of has increased with a rate of 1.03 1.03 00C per C per

100 years100 years

y = 0.0103x + 25.428

R2 = 0.2996

23

24

25

26

27

1948

1953

1958

1963

1968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2003

2008

(c)

Change of Temperature Change of Temperature ((00C/year)C/year)

Impact on AgricultureImpact on Agriculture

Wheat and Boro coverage area of Wheat and Boro coverage area of BangladeshBangladesh

Need more realistic Need more realistic scenariosscenarios

Thank youThank you