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University of Southern Queensland | Document title 1
Climate Outlook and Review
Focus on sugar industry
requirements
Issued 1 March 2016 Roger C Stone
International Centre for
Applied Climate Sciences
(ICACS)
University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS) | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 2
Overview
Rainfall probability values of exceeding the long term median are now
mostly between about 50% to 60% but with some variability to lower values
in the northern inland and higher values in the southern and western inland and far north west (see attached map).
For sugar regions, the SOI ‘phase system’ output for the three months
March to May, 2016, suggests about 50% probability of exceeding median
rainfall in most districts (climatological normal).
For the longer term (eg April to June, 2016) the European ECMWF GCM forecast system suggests continuation of below normal rainfall probability values for the coming April to June 2016 period for our regions.
The current SOI phase is classified as ‘consistently negative’.
According to BoM‘s and NOAA’s forecasting system and USQ’s
analysis, the MJO is next due to affect our longitudes approximately
mid-March.
Average to above normal maximum and especially minimum temperature probability values are indicated for most sugar regions – as per figures 2/3
– but mostly below normal minimum temperatures are forecast – as per figure 3.
We are currently further progressing into the El Niño pattern.
The SOI phase for the end of February was classified as being
a ‘Consistently Negative phase’.
The SOI to the end of February was close to minus 19.1 (-19.1) putting this
recent phase within the ‘Consistently Negative category’.
The likelihood of the current El Niño pattern being replaced by a La Niña
pattern is not certain, based on latest ocean modelling data. It is also
suggested there is some risk we may drift back into another El Niño pattern.
University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS) | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 3
Figure 1: Forecast rainfall probability values for Queensland - probability of
exceeding the respective long-term median values overall for the total period March
to May 2016. Regions shaded grey have around normal rainfall probability values
while areas shaded blue and dark blue have above normal probability values. Yellow
areas have low rainfall probability values. Note that these values are relative to
‘normal’ rainfall at this particular period of year.
University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS) | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 4
Figure 2: Probability of maximum temperatures averaged over the three month
period March to May 2016 being above the long-term median for this time of the
year. Regions dark blue have well above normal maximum temperature probability
values.
University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS) | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 5
Figure 3: Probability of minimum temperatures averaged over the three month
period March to May 2016 being above the long-term median for this time of the
year. Regions shaded dark blue and dark grey have well above normal probability
values.
University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS) | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 6
Figure 4: Probability of radiation values, averaged over the three month period
March to May 2016 of being above the long-term median for this time of the year.
Regions shaded blue and dark grey have above normal probability values. (Regions
shaded yellow have below normal values).
University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS) | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 7
Figure 5: Forecast rainfall probability values for Australia for the overall period March to
May 2016 – (after Stone, Hammer and Marcussen, 1996). Regions shaded yellow and light
grey have low probability values for this period relative to this time of the year. Regions
shaded dark grey and dark blue have above normal rainfall probability values.
Figure 6: Monthly SOI values since January 2010 – the most recent phase is ‘Consistently
Negative’. The most recent 30-day average value, to 29 February 2016, is minus -19.1
(-19.1). The SOI has been mostly negative for over 20 months now.
University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS) | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 8
Longer-term forecasts:
The ECMWF and POAMA models provide useful assessments of longer-term rainfall
probability values for sugar regions (and other agricultural regions).
The ECMWF example suggests ‘average’ rainfall probability values for the coming
April to June 2016 period for our regions. However, ECMWF are using a different
ocean model to US CPC that is showing a revamp of the El Niño pattern.
The United States Climate Prediction Center and the Bureau of Meteorology
‘CAWCR’ Centre provide useful forecasts of sea-surface temperatures in important
regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean that have relevance for longer-term rainfall
and temperature patterns over Australian sugar regions.
An example of a recent/current forecast of sea-surface temperatures in the
Nino3.4 region is provided in Figure 8 below. This figure indicates well above
normal sea-surface temperatures likely to extend through much of the first half of
2016. However, the latest model outputs (from this highly regarded model)
suggest some rebound to a ‘weak El Nino’ by winter, 2016. Note that this is a
particularly volatile time of the year and forecasts can change rapidly from now
through to about May or June.
Figure 7. Updated ECMWF forecast rainfall probability values for eastern Australia – and the
region generally, for the April to June period, 2016. The white area along the NE Australia
coast indicates ‘average’ rainfall probabilities with the scale provided at the top of the diagram
(Courtesy ECMWF, Reading, UK).
University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS) | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 9
Detailed rainfall probability values for selected locations.
Mossman March to May 2016
100% chance of exceeding 200mm
90% “ “ “ 410mm
80% 424mm
70% 452mm
60% 528mm
50% 632mm
40% 689mm
30% 820mm
20% 1069mm
10% 1171mm
Max ever record this pattern at Mossman 1318mm
Figure 8. Forecast of sea-surface temperature anomalies (how much they vary from normal)
for the central Equatorial Pacific Ocean for the period through to November, 2016. At this stage,
this later information with updated model nitialisations is now showing less chance of the
current El Nino pattern moving to a La Nina partern. Indeed, there is now some suggestion
of a ‘weak El Nino’ or otherwise a neutral ocean pattern from winter 2016 onwards.
Courtesy US Climate Prediction Center
University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS) | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 10
Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Mossman for this period: 30%
Innisfail March to May 2016
100% chance of exceeding 823mm
90% 895mm
80% 952mm
70% 1075mm
60% 1128mm
50% 1138mm
40% 1507mm
30% 1708mm
20% 1995mm
10% 2236mm
Max ever record this pattern at Innisfail 2641mm
Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Innisfail: 46%
Mareeba March to May 2016
100% chance of exceeding 46mm
90% 63mm
80% 81mm
70% 94mm
60% 113mm
50% 170mm
40% 182mm
30% 240mm
20% 296mm
10% 415mm
Max ever record this pattern at Mareeba 766mm
Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Mareeba: 31%
University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS) | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 11
Ingham March to May 2016
100% chance of exceeding 174mm
90% 313mm
80% 364mm
70% 406mm
60% 445mm
50% 517mm
40% 710mm
30% 828mm
20% 1036mm
10% 1289mm
Max ever record this pattern at Ingham 1650mm
Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Ingham: 43%
Ayr (BSC) March to May 2016
100% chance of exceeding 25mm
90% 42mm
80% 86mm
70% 109mm
60% 139mm
50% 183mm
40% 197mm
30% 243mm
20% 259mm
10% 529mm
Max ever recorded this pattern 630mm
Probability of exceeding the long-term median: 37%
University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS) | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 12
Mackay Sugar March to May 2016
100% chance of exceeding 220mm
90% 248mm
80% 299mm
70% 305mm
60% 347mm
50% 414mm
40% 453mm
30% 547mm
20% 592mm
10% 873mm
Max ever recorded this pattern 911mm
Probability of exceeding the long-term median: 50%
Bundaberg Sugar March to May 2016
100% chance of exceeding 83mm
90% 130mm
80% 188mm
70% 274mm
60% 289mm
50% 353mm
40% 426mm
30% 460mm
20% 540mm
10% 634mm
Max ever recorded this pattern 900mm
Probability of exceeding the long-term median: 75%
University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS) | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 13
Childers March to May 2016
100% chance of exceeding 19mm
90% 76mm
80% 100mm
70% 145mm
60% 187mm
50% 211mm
40% 256mm
30% 337mm
20% 442mm
10% 613mm
Max ever record this pattern at Childers 734mm
Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Childers: 43%
Condong (NSW) Sugar Mill March to May 2016
100% chance of exceeding 187mm
90% 250mm
80% 349mm
70% 404mm
60% 440mm
50% 473mm
40% 498mm
30% 528mm
20% 590mm
10% 635mm
Max ever recorded this pattern 1023mm
Probability of exceeding the long-term median: 41%
University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS) | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 14
Recent forecast maps
As these forecasts are issued for a three-month validity on a rolling monthly
basis it has been decided to provide a continuous reference to these forecasts, as
below:
Seasonal climate forecast valid
1 March to 31 May 2016
Seasonal climate forecast valid
1 February to 30 April 2016
Seasonal climate forecast valid
1 December 2015 to 29 February 2016
Seasonal climate forecast valid
1 January to 31 March 2016
University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS) | Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone 15
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) would next be due in approx. late March,
2016. Please refer to the BoM website (below) for updated information.
The information below also presents a ‘one-stop’ shop (as requested through
sugar industry workshops) for such information to be available.
For updated climate information
Click on the following links:
For the MJO
For weekly SSTs
For easterly (and westerly) wind anomalies across the Pacific
For sub-surface temperatures across the Pacific
For ECMWF forecast products
For ‘plume’ forecasts of SSTs in the central Pacific
For a complete history of the SOI
The Long Paddock
Additional information on ENSO