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7/29/2019 Climate outlook for Belg 2013
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CLIMATE OUTLOOK
FOR BELG 2013
National Meteorological Agency (NMA)
February 1, 2013
7/29/2019 Climate outlook for Belg 2013
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Outline
• Introduction
•Climate of Belg season
• Analogue years and spatial rainfall patternsunder selected analogue years
•Current and future seasonal trends
•Climate outlook for Belg 2013
7/29/2019 Climate outlook for Belg 2013
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Introduction to Belg season
• Belg is the period from mid February to May• It is the main rainy season for south and southeast
regions
• Belg, the starting season for long rainy season
• April, the major rainy month for the period of Belg
• Belg has strong intra-seasonal rainfall variability• During Belg day time temperature attains its
maximum peak point
7/29/2019 Climate outlook for Belg 2013
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7/29/2019 Climate outlook for Belg 2013
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Climate of Belg Season
7/29/2019 Climate outlook for Belg 2013
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Climate of Belg Season
7/29/2019 Climate outlook for Belg 2013
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During the last four weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average
across the western Pacific Ocean, the western Indian Ocean,
and the eastern Atlantic Ocean. SSTs were below average in the
east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
SST Departures (°C) in the Tropical Pacific
During the Last 4 Weeks
7/29/2019 Climate outlook for Belg 2013
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Recent Evolution of Equatorial Pacific SST Departures (oC)
Longitude
Time
From June – October 2012, above-
average SSTs were evident acrossmost of the equatorial PacificOcean.Recently, below-average SSTs inthe eastern Pacific have expandedwestward.
7/29/2019 Climate outlook for Belg 2013
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The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 0.0°C
Niño 3.4 -0.2°C
Niño 3 -0.5°CNiño 1+2 -0.6°C
Niño Region SST Departures (°C) Recent Evolution
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Sub-Surface Temperature Departures (°C) in the Equatorial Pacific
• In the last two months, negativesubsurface temperature anomaliesshifted eastward across theequatorial Pacific.• Recently, negative subsurface
temperature anomalies, associatedwith an upwelling Kelvin wave, haveshifted into the eastern Pacific.
Time
Longitude Most recent pentad analysis
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Weekly SST Departures (°C) for the Last Four Weeks
The change in SST anomalies is negative across the eastern
half of the equatorial Pacific
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Global and regional indicators• ENSO-neutral conditions continue.
• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are near
average to below average across the Pacific Ocean.
• Some atmospheric circulation features resemble La
Niña, but this is at least partially due to an active
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
• ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere
winter 2012-13 and into spring 2013.
• Warm SST over east and west African Coast as well
as north and central Atlantic.
• Negative SST anomaly over equatorial Atlantic
Ocean, Mascarene area.
Summary Current Global and Regional SST status
7/29/2019 Climate outlook for Belg 2013
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-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1977-1978
1979-1980
1994-19952002-2003
2004-2005
2006-2007
2012-2013
Analogue years
Best Analogue Years: 2007, 1978 and 2005
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7/29/2019 Climate outlook for Belg 2013
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Summary Analogue years and spatial rainfall
patterns under selected analogue years
•Normal onset, normal spatial and temporaldistributions of the seasonal rains
•The seasonal rainfall activity was relatively
enhanced during some of analogue years•Near normal seasonal rainfall patterns
occurred over the major Belg growing
areas in much of analogue years•Dry spell occurred during major seasonal
rainy months in some of analogue years.
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Current and future seasonal trends
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7/29/2019 Climate outlook for Belg 2013
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7/29/2019 Climate outlook for Belg 2013
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Summary Current and future seasonal trends• High likelihood of neutral ENSO conditions enduring
through the first quarter of 2013, with probabilities of El
Niño or La Niña each less than 30% through northern
summer 2013.
• Most of the set of dynamical and statistical model
predictions issued during late December 2012 and early
January 2013 predict neutral ENSO conditions, with only acouple of models predicting weak El Nino conditions by
spring 2013, and one predicting weak La Nina conditions
for the coming 1 to 2 seasons.
• As of mid-January, 8% of the set of dynamical andstatistical models models predicts La Niña SST conditions
for the Jan-Mar 2013 season, none predict El Niño
conditions, and 92% indicate neutral ENSO conditions. For
Feb-Apr and Mar-May, 4% indicate La Niña conditions and96% indicate neutral ENSO conditions.
7/29/2019 Climate outlook for Belg 2013
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7/29/2019 Climate outlook for Belg 2013
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Summary Climate outlook for Belg 2013• Near normal onset and cessation are expected over much portions of
the country.
• Normal to below normal rains are expected over much of northeastern portions of the country
• Moreover, below normal rainfall is expected to be more pronouncedover southeastern region, where Belg is the major rainy season.
• Near normal Belg rain is most likely to prevail across central,easternand southern regions
• Close to normal tend to above normal rainfall is anticipated over northwestern and western parts of the nation.
• The seasonal rainfall activity is anticipated to be getting better duringMay.
• The maximum temperature is expected close to normal over much of the nation despite the fact that, it is likely to be slightly above normalacross lowlands of the country.
• In general, the seasonal rain will be close to normal over the westernhalf, while below normal rainfall will dominate major portions of Belgrain benefiting regions. Moreover, the anticipated Belg rains will bebetter than last year’s Belg season.
7/29/2019 Climate outlook for Belg 2013
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Extended Climate Outlook for Kiremt 2013
Current and projected regional and globalmeteorological phenomena will be in favor of seasonal rains in the upcoming Kiremt 2013season. However, as the predictability skill is very low during this time of the year, the users are kindly advised to use NMA’s updated version of the forecast.