Climate Security in Africa: Towards a new generation of environmental conflicts?

Dennis Tänzler, Adelphi Research

Presentation at the EGMONT, ACTED, CERI and CEAN Conference “Climate Change and Security in Africa”

20 January 2009 in Paris

Overview

1. Climate Security: A new generation of environmental conflicts at the front door?

2. Climate Security and the importance of converging trends

3. Key pressures in Africa: From human to (inter)national security?

4. New modes of governance needed

1. Climate Security: A new generation of environmental conflicts at the front door?

North Africa & Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Pacific, Latin America and the Caribbean (1980-2005)

1. Climate Security: A new generation of environmental conflicts at the front door?

Climate Change ….

is a threat multiplier

will overstretch the adaptive capacities of many societies

reduces capacity for peaceful conflict resolution

increases number and intensity of conflicts

leads to new lines of conflict in the international arena

1. Climate Security: Future global & regional hot spots

Quelle: Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderung (2007): Climate Change as Security Risk.

2. Climate Security & the importance of converging trends

Population dynamics: Until 2050 population growth will lead to a world population between 8.7 and 9.3 billion people.

In regional terms this will be reflected particularly in the population dynamics in Africa, which is set to grow from 900 million (2005) to nearly 2 billion (2050)

Resource consumption: in a long term rise in consumption of energy and resources: it is expected that by 2030 primary energy needs will increase by more than 50%.

Urbanisation is advancing: By 2030 up to 60% of the world’s population could be living in cities. The largest growth in city populations – nearly 50% – will be in Africa and Asia.

Result: Number of destabilising, mutually amplifying factors

2. Converging trends: Risks in key sectors

Water: decresing water availability, changes in precipitation, melting of glaciers, extreme weather events, increasing competition of demand

Agriculture: Decreasing agricultural production, economic decline, more unempoyment, food shortages, increasing competition of demand

Urbanisation: Increasing desaster risks, health risks, growing population dynamics, growing slums

Infrastructure, energy supply and transport: environmental change due to climate change increases running costs (damages, flooding etc) or reduces energy production (hydro)

3. Key pressures in Africa: From human to (inter)national security?

Current situation:

Overall: Water scarcity, desertification & soil salinisation

Poverty, demographic pressure, increasing urbanization, economies are highly dependent on agriculture

Large number of violent conflicts and post-conflict countries, combined with widespread governance insufficiencies

Trends in Middle East and North Africa (MENA):

Temperatures are expected to increase by 2°C in 2040, leading to a reduction in available water resources of 20%- 30%

2025: Per capita water availability region is expected to decrease to a little more than 500m³ due to population growth and economic use

Security trend: negative consequences for water-intensive agriculture, higher unemployment, coastal areas at risk, dependence on food imports likely to increase, water and food conflicts?

3. Key pressures in Africa: From human to (inter)national security?

Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa:

Regional increase in temperature will be higher in Africa than the global mean – in some cases up to 50%

An additional 250-550 million people could be affected by hunger if there is a temperature increase of 3°C; it is likely that, by 2050, 75% of all undernourished people will be concentrated in Africa

In some countries agricultural yields could decline by more than 50% by 2020 and incomes by more than 90% by 2100

Six of the ten largest African cities are located near coasts. In West Africa, a roughly 500 km long metropolitan belt is developing between Accra and the Niger Delta, which will be highly vulnerable in the face of any rise in sea level

Security trend: Drought, famines and flooding as major drivers of migration and further regional destabilization >> worst case: transcontinental belt consisting of reinforcing fragile states

4. New modes of governance needed

Reduce global GHG emission to limit the risks of climate change: Build a Post-2012 agreement incl. a comprehensive adaptation framework

Increase dialogue between partner countries to develop - conflict sensitive - adaptation strategies (as many will be implemented in conflictive environments)

Set regional priorities in the field of adaptation to address the specific needs in fragile states and states in conflict and post-conflict situations

Bilateral or as part of EU regional approaches: (Niger delta, Sahel belt, Nil basin, Horn of Africa, East Africa)

Improve regional and local capacities for early warning & early action: To this end systematically integrate climate vulnerability data into existing early warning systems

Support regional arrangements for coordination and cooperation such as transboundary water institutions in different fragile regions in Africa