CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005 CLIMATE DYNAMICS Lofgren, Moore, Nganga, Conway, Magezi, Doherty, Andresen, Palutikof, Hansen RegionalLocal LAND COVER Qi, Lusch, Reid, Maitima, Olson, Torbick, Ge NPP SIMULATIONS Andresen, Thornton, Maitima, Alagarswami, Reid, Palm, Mutuo LAND USE CHANGE Olson, Campbell, Mugisha, Yanda, Pijanowski, Misana, Qi, Wilson, Goodwin Models Role Playing Simulation CropsRangeland INTEGRATIVE Spatial and temporal scales Uncertainty analysis Feedbacks and tipping points Systems paradigms Broader impacts ALL, Huebner, Yang Remote Sensing Case Studies Human Systems Global Climate Land Use Cluster Expert system workshops Case Studies CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005 Land Use Driving Forces Link to land use modeling, land cover through: Providing analyses of past LUC patterns and drivers, and change agents to inform LU modelling Providing information on current and future directions of LUC: who, what, why, where changes are likely to occur Evaluating LU model results Feedback loop from NPP, downscaling, climate models to land use (later): Identify hotspots where current LU systems most vulnerable to climate change Identify how people in different areas may respond by changing their livelihoods and land use CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005 Studies of Past LUC LUCID project and other site studies in agricultural, pastoral, and protected area landscapes in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. Completed site level LUC analyses Completed cross-site comparison to identify for East Africa: the spatial patterns over time: what is common across sites and unique to sites the relative importance of drivers and agents in different periods, and how related to LUC patterns how wider economic, tenure, population, policies and war/peace context affects LUC. CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005 LUCID case study results 1955 (left) and 2000 (right) land use change in Kibale, Uganda National Park and Surrounding Areas. Source: Mugisha 2002 CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005 Current and Future LUC Expert System Workshops: identify zones of expected LU change, the likely LUC to occur, when and why Role Playing Scenario: how groups of people negotiate over land Studies of particular interest: urbanisation and rural migration, fuelwood harvesting CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005 Land Use Expert Workshop: Kenya Representatives from KARI and the Univ. of Nairobi CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005 Land Use Expert Workshop: Kenya Land use conversions will continue due to, e.g.: Urban market for crops and meat, dairy Migration into medium to low potential zones Sedentarisation of pastoralists Expansion of cropping into semi-arid areas with the issue of mixed classes & mixed pixelscrops and savanna CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005 Land Use Expert Workshop: Tanzania Representatives from the government and from academic units at UDSM, NSF CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005 Major LU conversions are expected in certain zones due to, e.g.: Transport infrastructure development: roads, bridges Governments agricultural modernisation policy Structural adjustment Rural migration Critical role of policieshow incorporate into models? Land Use Expert Workshop: Tanzania CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005 Land Use Expert Workshop: Uganda Representatives from the Government and Makerere Univ. CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005 Land Use Expert Workshop: Uganda Land use conversions expected in certain zones due to: Market forces for crops and meat, dairy Enforcement of environmental laws Demand for wood Peace in the North Impact of peace on livelihoods, land usehow incorporate? CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005 ROLE PLAYING SIMULATION How do farmer and herder groups decide who gets what land? How do they respond to government land mandates? What is the land use outcome of the competition over land? Representatives from the Kenya Government and universities CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005 Special study: Urbanisation, Rural Migration CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005 Urbanisation, Rural Migration Land use impacts of population shifts and growth, in both rural and urban areas. CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005 Study of Fuelwood Harvesting: How will it affect land cover in the future? Major variables: Urban population growth Will charcoal still supply 85% of urban cooking energy? Will charcoal continue to come from woodlands and bush, or from planted trees? CLIP Workshop Jan. 6-8, 2005 Links Land use change patterns and driving forces land use spatial modelling Group and individual land use decisions agent based land use modelling Land use/land cover relationship Land use and livelihood responses to climate change, with crop-climate models land use/climate feedback loop