CMD Antwerp – 15 November 2016
Koen Beeckmans
Chief Financial Officer
10 yearspositive
trends
The reflection of all the work done
494480
436404
359
319
240222
183160
82
37
-69
12111009080504 06 072003
+20% p.a.
20151413
-3.5Normalized EBIT marginPercent
1.7 3.9 7.2 8.0 9.8 10.7 13.8 15.2 16.7 18.0 19.5 20.5
Transformation journey has resulted in a strong financial performance …Normalized1 EBIT, EUR million
1 Excluding non-recurring items
316
374
249
284
226225
2011 20122010 2013 20152014
FCF / norm. EBITDA
FCF / norm. revenue
54%65%46%57%50%52%
13%15%10%12%10%10%
… translating into high cash flowsNormalized FCF, EUR million
Our share has enjoyed a successful ride since our public listingIndexed at 100 on June 21, 2013
100
60
160
120
200
180
140
80
150
190
170
70
130
90
110
+49%
June 2013
November 2016
March 2014 December 2014
September 2015
BEL20bpost
Total shareholder
return of 72% since IPO vs.
39.2% for BEL20
Fully on track to deliver our full year guidance
-5.0-4.5
-~500 -~486
Double digit growth 15.21
-80.0
-43.0
FY Guidance
2016 YTD Q3
Delivering on 2016 guidance
1 Volume trend excluding calendar effects amounts to 14.5% for the first 3 quarters of 2016
Underlying domestic mail volume declinePercent
Domestic parcelsPercent, volume growth
Productivity improvementsFTE & interims (average reduction), net of Delta Media
Gross CapexEUR million
As a result, we expect the EBITDA to be at least same level
as last year (on a FY basis)
Reported FTE evolution does not fully reflect the productivity gains Number of FTEs
FTE current
Upsidefrom chosenexpansion
Base asplanned
Efficiency gains
Inorganic growth
Organic growth
Total
ILLUSTRATIVE
EBITDA At least €620m (organic including announced acquisitions, e.g. Lagardère)
1
Dividend policyAt least 85% pay-out of BGAAP net profit
5
RevenueOverall slight increase driven by▪ Growth in domestic
parcels (vol +75%; -2-3% price/mix effect)
▪ Growth in international parcels (rev x2)
▪ Decrease in domestic mail (volume up to -6%)
2 Cost (Opex)Slight increase, driven by▪ Growth in transport cost
(reflecting growth in Int’l) ▪ Up to 4% FTE & interim
productivity increase p.a. at current scope
▪ Optimized FTE mix▪ Integration of acquired
businesses ▪ Inflation
3 Cost (Capex)Further Vision 2020 investments in 2017-18 and maintenance capex level of ~€60m p.a. in 2019-20
4
M&A on top of overall guidanceAccretive contribution supported by strong balance sheet. Any decision must be evaluated on 5 criteria
6
Overall guidance 2016-2020
EBITDA guidance 2016-2020EUR million, organic incl. announced acquisitions
EBITDA
1
584
At least 620
At least 584
2016 20202015A
Growth in Domestic Parcels revenue
► Volume +75% by 2020 (vs. 2015)
► Negative price/mix effect: -2 to -3%
Growth in International Parcels revenue
► Revenue x2 by 2020 (vs. 2015)
Partly offset by decrease of Domestic Mail revenue
► Volume decline up to -6%
► Price / mix effects
Topline growth by 2020 to come from
Revenue
2
Opex reduction initiatives address the entire cost baseEUR million
Opex
3 1,186
646
▪ Continuous improvement programs for central units after Alpha exercise (productivity increase, challenging of value-adding activities, etc.)
▪ Cost optimization program (COP) for further cost reduction in all units
▪ In Collect, Preparation and Distribution, through the impact of Vision 2020, reducing and automating low value adding activities, and capturing gains from the new footprint
▪ Unit cost optimization both in MSO (Auxiliary postman) and central functions
▪ In Transport, from national / cross-regional optimization
▪ In Procurement (tenders)
▪ ICT through demand management and selected outsourcing
Other 47
2015
SG&A (excl.interim costs)
1,226
1,879
606
Payroll &interim costs
Proceeds from sale of PPE
Restarting investments for Vision 2020 and associated disposals
Network optimization with postal branches renovations
and closures
Gross capex
-19-33 -27
151
9888
66 68
-10-14
2010
4256
2008
74
20092007
65
131
2006
Reminder of Capex 2006-2015Normalized, EUR million
Capex
4-27 -22
78 84 7991
81
-12-11-12
69
20152013 2014
69
5273
20122011
66
Front loaded capex program for sorting centers and
company transformation
Gross capex
► 2016 as indicated in our outlook
► 2017-2018: further Vision 2020 investments
► 2019-2020: maintenance capex level of ~ € 60m p.a.
Proceeds from sale of PPE
► 2016-2020: expected to be in line with historical average
Capex 2016-2020EUR million
Capex
4
2016 2017-2018 2019-2020
80 ~90 ~60Gross capex p.a.
Target dividend pay-out of at least 85% of BGAAP net profit (unconsolidated)
0.931.04 1.05
0.20
0.22 0.24
+12%
1.26
1.13
+2%
1.29
201520142013
Interim gross DPS (EUR)
Final gross DPS (EUR)
Annual dividend payment
► Interim in December of financial year based on first 10 months
► Final in May of following financial year
FY16 dividend at least€ 1.29
Dividend policy
5
We lean on a strong balance sheet, which can support M&A Assets vs. Equity and Liabilities, EUR million
M&A
6Dec 31, 2015
413
638
11
375
59
724
2,112
616
398
58
PPE & intangibleassets
647
329Trade & otherreceivables
Cash & cashequivalents
12
Investments inassociates
Inventories
Sep 30, 2016
2,168
Other assets
2,168
898
Interest-bearingloans & borrowings
Trade & otherpayables
Employee benefits
Provisions
Total equity
Sep 30, 2016
361
66
941
2,11247
695
346
66
Dec 31, 2015
796
64
78
Termination(early retirement)
148
Other longterm benefits(disabilityannuities)
12
109
Post retirement(family allowan-
ce, transport,bank, …)
Long term benefits▪ Pension savings days▪ Quota days▪ Part-time work
▪ No pension liabilities▪ Mostly unfunded (no investment risk)▪ Volatility mainly through the discount rate
297 49
Deferred tax asset
Employee benefit liabilities (2015)Equity and liabilitiesAssets
Decision criteria for M&A
E-commerce Convenience & proximity
Small bolt-on acquisitions to capture growth and enhance service offering
Strengthen our international footprint and embrace the vision of BeNe as a domestic market
Invest into growing and profitable businesses
Stretch the value chain ofe-commerce around added value services
Close to our core business and/or capabilities
Improve our proximity and convenience product offering
Earnings accretive, potential margin dilution is not an issue
Maintain a sustainable dividend policy
Maintain financial solidity (solid rating)
Support innovative start-upsresponding to societal evolutionsM&A
6