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CMD Antwerp – 15 November 2016
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Page 1: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

CMD Antwerp – 15 November 2016

Page 2: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

Koen Beeckmans

Chief Financial Officer

Page 3: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

10 yearspositive

trends

The reflection of all the work done

Page 4: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

494480

436404

359

319

240222

183160

82

37

-69

12111009080504 06 072003

+20% p.a.

20151413

-3.5Normalized EBIT marginPercent

1.7 3.9 7.2 8.0 9.8 10.7 13.8 15.2 16.7 18.0 19.5 20.5

Transformation journey has resulted in a strong financial performance …Normalized1 EBIT, EUR million

1 Excluding non-recurring items

Page 5: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

316

374

249

284

226225

2011 20122010 2013 20152014

FCF / norm. EBITDA

FCF / norm. revenue

54%65%46%57%50%52%

13%15%10%12%10%10%

… translating into high cash flowsNormalized FCF, EUR million

Page 6: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

Our share has enjoyed a successful ride since our public listingIndexed at 100 on June 21, 2013

100

60

160

120

200

180

140

80

150

190

170

70

130

90

110

+49%

June 2013

November 2016

March 2014 December 2014

September 2015

BEL20bpost

Total shareholder

return of 72% since IPO vs.

39.2% for BEL20

Page 7: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

Fully on track to deliver our full year guidance

Page 8: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

-5.0-4.5

-~500 -~486

Double digit growth 15.21

-80.0

-43.0

FY Guidance

2016 YTD Q3

Delivering on 2016 guidance

1 Volume trend excluding calendar effects amounts to 14.5% for the first 3 quarters of 2016

Underlying domestic mail volume declinePercent

Domestic parcelsPercent, volume growth

Productivity improvementsFTE & interims (average reduction), net of Delta Media

Gross CapexEUR million

As a result, we expect the EBITDA to be at least same level

as last year (on a FY basis)

Page 9: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

Reported FTE evolution does not fully reflect the productivity gains Number of FTEs

FTE current

Upsidefrom chosenexpansion

Base asplanned

Efficiency gains

Inorganic growth

Organic growth

Total

ILLUSTRATIVE

Page 10: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

EBITDA At least €620m (organic including announced acquisitions, e.g. Lagardère)

1

Dividend policyAt least 85% pay-out of BGAAP net profit

5

RevenueOverall slight increase driven by▪ Growth in domestic

parcels (vol +75%; -2-3% price/mix effect)

▪ Growth in international parcels (rev x2)

▪ Decrease in domestic mail (volume up to -6%)

2 Cost (Opex)Slight increase, driven by▪ Growth in transport cost

(reflecting growth in Int’l) ▪ Up to 4% FTE & interim

productivity increase p.a. at current scope

▪ Optimized FTE mix▪ Integration of acquired

businesses ▪ Inflation

3 Cost (Capex)Further Vision 2020 investments in 2017-18 and maintenance capex level of ~€60m p.a. in 2019-20

4

M&A on top of overall guidanceAccretive contribution supported by strong balance sheet. Any decision must be evaluated on 5 criteria

6

Overall guidance 2016-2020

Page 11: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

EBITDA guidance 2016-2020EUR million, organic incl. announced acquisitions

EBITDA

1

584

At least 620

At least 584

2016 20202015A

Page 12: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

Growth in Domestic Parcels revenue

► Volume +75% by 2020 (vs. 2015)

► Negative price/mix effect: -2 to -3%

Growth in International Parcels revenue

► Revenue x2 by 2020 (vs. 2015)

Partly offset by decrease of Domestic Mail revenue

► Volume decline up to -6%

► Price / mix effects

Topline growth by 2020 to come from

Revenue

2

Page 13: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

Opex reduction initiatives address the entire cost baseEUR million

Opex

3 1,186

646

▪ Continuous improvement programs for central units after Alpha exercise (productivity increase, challenging of value-adding activities, etc.)

▪ Cost optimization program (COP) for further cost reduction in all units

▪ In Collect, Preparation and Distribution, through the impact of Vision 2020, reducing and automating low value adding activities, and capturing gains from the new footprint

▪ Unit cost optimization both in MSO (Auxiliary postman) and central functions

▪ In Transport, from national / cross-regional optimization

▪ In Procurement (tenders)

▪ ICT through demand management and selected outsourcing

Other 47

2015

SG&A (excl.interim costs)

1,226

1,879

606

Payroll &interim costs

Page 14: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

Proceeds from sale of PPE

Restarting investments for Vision 2020 and associated disposals

Network optimization with postal branches renovations

and closures

Gross capex

-19-33 -27

151

9888

66 68

-10-14

2010

4256

2008

74

20092007

65

131

2006

Reminder of Capex 2006-2015Normalized, EUR million

Capex

4-27 -22

78 84 7991

81

-12-11-12

69

20152013 2014

69

5273

20122011

66

Front loaded capex program for sorting centers and

company transformation

Page 15: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

Gross capex

► 2016 as indicated in our outlook

► 2017-2018: further Vision 2020 investments

► 2019-2020: maintenance capex level of ~ € 60m p.a.

Proceeds from sale of PPE

► 2016-2020: expected to be in line with historical average

Capex 2016-2020EUR million

Capex

4

2016 2017-2018 2019-2020

80 ~90 ~60Gross capex p.a.

Page 16: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

Target dividend pay-out of at least 85% of BGAAP net profit (unconsolidated)

0.931.04 1.05

0.20

0.22 0.24

+12%

1.26

1.13

+2%

1.29

201520142013

Interim gross DPS (EUR)

Final gross DPS (EUR)

Annual dividend payment

► Interim in December of financial year based on first 10 months

► Final in May of following financial year

FY16 dividend at least€ 1.29

Dividend policy

5

Page 17: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

We lean on a strong balance sheet, which can support M&A Assets vs. Equity and Liabilities, EUR million

M&A

6Dec 31, 2015

413

638

11

375

59

724

2,112

616

398

58

PPE & intangibleassets

647

329Trade & otherreceivables

Cash & cashequivalents

12

Investments inassociates

Inventories

Sep 30, 2016

2,168

Other assets

2,168

898

Interest-bearingloans & borrowings

Trade & otherpayables

Employee benefits

Provisions

Total equity

Sep 30, 2016

361

66

941

2,11247

695

346

66

Dec 31, 2015

796

64

78

Termination(early retirement)

148

Other longterm benefits(disabilityannuities)

12

109

Post retirement(family allowan-

ce, transport,bank, …)

Long term benefits▪ Pension savings days▪ Quota days▪ Part-time work

▪ No pension liabilities▪ Mostly unfunded (no investment risk)▪ Volatility mainly through the discount rate

297 49

Deferred tax asset

Employee benefit liabilities (2015)Equity and liabilitiesAssets

Page 18: CMD Antwerp 15 November 2016 - Investis Digitalbpost.production.investis.com/~/media/Files/B/Bpost...2016/11/15  · Final in May of following financial year FY16 dividend at least

Decision criteria for M&A

E-commerce Convenience & proximity

Small bolt-on acquisitions to capture growth and enhance service offering

Strengthen our international footprint and embrace the vision of BeNe as a domestic market

Invest into growing and profitable businesses

Stretch the value chain ofe-commerce around added value services

Close to our core business and/or capabilities

Improve our proximity and convenience product offering

Earnings accretive, potential margin dilution is not an issue

Maintain a sustainable dividend policy

Maintain financial solidity (solid rating)

Support innovative start-upsresponding to societal evolutionsM&A

6


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