COMMERCIAL BANKS LENDING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MALAYSIA:
ANEMPIRICAL STUDY
TANG TUCK CHEONG
A thesis submitted to the Graduate School of the Northern University of Malaysia
(UUM) in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of
Master of Science (Management).
December, 1999
OTang Tuck Cheong. All Rights Resewed.
ABSTRAK
Objektif kajian ini adalah menyasiat and meneroka kesan pinjamanbank-bank perdagangan teshadap pertumbuhan ekonomi it1 Malaysiadengan data tahunan daripada I960 hingga 1998. Perhubunganperanan pinjaman bank0-bank perdagangati terhadai? pertumbzrhatiekotiomi adalah berdasarkatz sate appiikusi gabungan teori kuatltitiIrang darr ftmgsi pettgehraratl agregat Kajiatl itli nwrrrtlj~rkkm mtrrpeningkalan dakam kepenCrigat1 batik-bank perdagaugan lerhadapperfrmihrrhatr ekotromi, tluIp1 hattk-batrk perdagattgatrmetryrtmbangkat~ kira-kira 69 peratrrs hingga 72 peratrrs daripadajrtmlah pittjamatt da/ant sistem perbartkari. Kajiati itii lwrrtmetmtzjukkxm sattt perCugkatan perat~an bank-bank perdagatlgan dalampertumbtrhat~ ekonomi, KNK (Keluarati Negara Kasar), detzgatipetlingkatan daripada RA40.073 juta kepada RMI. I4 jzrta zmtrrkmenghasiikan satlc jrcta KNK dalam ekonomi. Pembolehubah-pembolehzrbah Kehlaratt Daiam Negari Kasar betiar (RGDP), datlpitrjnnlati Battk-Battk perdatigatlgatt (LAcj digwakati bagi atlalisisregrasi. Derlgan menggurnahxm model regrasi linear (OLS), penemrratrmetmnjukkart pengaruh positifjangka pendek (tahun semasa) pinjamatibank-batik perdagangatl terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, tetapi secarariegatlf pada. jangka patrjnlig (pembolehubah /ak bersatidar di’lag’katl).Penemuan kajian trrrut metwokai kebenaratr teori 3’ 7 f&4$ da/amkqjiati irti. 7irmhahatt prt la, pittjamatt bank-batik perdagatlgattmerupakan pembolehubah yang signifikan s e c a r a statistik da/amramalan masa depan geiagat ekonomi.
ii
ABSTRACT
The objective of the study is to iflvestigate, and explore the impact ofcommercial banks lending o n economic growth in Malaysia withannual data for the period of 1960-98 The theore tical znlderpirlFliFlgof the role qf commercial banks IendiFlg to ecoFlomic growth is basedon combirlatio~l of c/uaFltity theory of morley and ag&rre@e productionjiructiotl. 7’he study sholvs a11 iFrcreasiF!g of importarlce of commercialhar1k.v to ecorlomic growth. Ohviortsiy, commercial harlks i,l Malaysiaprovided about 69 per cerrt to 72 per cerlt of total Ioan ilr bafnkilrgsysiem. 7Re sturdy shows a~1 iucreasiilg rule of commercial batiksIeFldiFlg in ecorlomic growth, GNP(Gross Natioria! Product), fromRh40.073miilior1 in 19.59 to RA4i. l-/million in 1998 to generate amillion of GNP iFl economic. The variables of Real Gross DomesticProduct (RGDP), arid commercial baziks iending &AC) are employed inthe regression analysis. By usiFlg linear regressiorl model (OLS), the
Ji‘ridiFig reveals a short rrrri (current year) positive influence ofcommercial baFlks lendirig to economic growth, but Flegative impact iFlloFig run (lagged expinrlatory variables). T h e fl?idiFigs alsosignificarltly explore the validity of theory iFl this study, 11 I- f(LAJ. Inadditiml, the commercial haF1k.s hdiFlg is found to be statisticaliysig@unt variable to predict the fhtwe ccorwnlic behavior.
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