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COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

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Grocery Outlet Business Overview 1 March 2021
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Page 1: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Grocery Outlet Business Overview

1

March 2021

Page 2: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Disclaimer

2

Forward-Looking Statements

This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 as contained in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which reflect management's current views and estimates regarding the prospects of the industry and the Company’s prospects, plans, business, results of operations, financial position, future financial performance and business strategy. These forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as "may," "should," "expect," "intend," "will," "estimate," "anticipate," "believe," "predict," "potential" or "continue" or the negatives of these terms or variations of them or similar terminology. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, the Company cannot provide any assurance that these expectations will prove to be correct.

The following factors are among those that may cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements: failure of suppliers to consistently supply us with opportunistic products at attractive pricing; inability to successfully identify trends and maintain a consistent level of opportunistic products; failure to maintain or increase comparable store sales; changes affecting the market prices of the products we sell; failure to open, relocate or remodel stores on schedule; risks associated with newly opened stores; inability to retain the loyalty of our customers; costs and implementation difficulties associated with marketing, advertising and promotions; failure to maintain our reputation and the value of our brand, including protecting our intellectual property; any significant disruption to our distribution network, the operations of our distributions centers and our timely receipt of inventory; inability to maintain sufficient levels of cash flow from our operations; risks associated with leasing substantial amounts of space; failure to participate effectively or at all in the growing online retail marketplace; unexpected costs and negative effects if we incur losses not covered by our insurance program; inability to attract, train and retain highly qualified employees; difficulties associated with labor relations; loss of our key personnel or inability to hire additional qualified personnel; risks associated with economic conditions; competition in the retail food industry; movement of consumer trends toward private labels and away from name-brand products; major health epidemics, such as the outbreak of COVID-19, and other outbreaks; natural disasters and unusual weather conditions (whether or not caused by climate change), power outages, pandemic outbreaks, terrorist acts, global political events and other serious catastrophic events; failure to maintain the security of information we hold relating to personal information or payment card data of our customers, employees and suppliers; material disruption to our information technology systems; risks associated with products we and our independent operators ("IOs") sell; risks associated with laws and regulations generally applicable to retailers; legal proceedings from customers, suppliers, employees, governments or competitors; failure of our IOs to successfully manage their business; failure of our IOs to repay notes outstanding to us; inability to attract and retain qualified IOs; inability of our IOs to avoid excess inventory shrink; any loss or changeover of an IO; legal proceedings initiated against our IOs; legal challenges to the IO/independent contractor business model; failure to maintain positive relationships with our IOs; risks associated with actions our IOs could take that could harm our business; our substantial indebtedness could affect our ability to operate our business, react to changes in the economy or industry or pay our debts and meet our obligations; our ability to generate cash flow to service our substantial debt obligations; impairment of goodwill and other intangible assets; any significant decline in our operating profit and taxable income; risks associated with tax matters; changes in accounting standards and subjective assumptions, estimates and judgments by management related to complex accounting matters; failure to comply with requirements to design, implement and maintain effective internal controls; and the other factors discussed under "Risk Factors" in the Company’s most recent reports on Forms 10-Q and 10-K. Such risk factors may be updated from time to time in the Company’s periodic filings with the SEC. The Company’s periodic filings are accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.

You should not rely upon forward-looking statements as predictions of future events. Although the Company believes that the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, the Company cannot guarantee that the future results, levels of activity, performance and events and circumstances reflected in the forward-looking statements will be achieved or occur. Except as required by applicable law, the Company undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements for any reason after the date of this news release to conform these statements to actual results or to changes in our expectations.

Industry Information

Market data and industry information used throughout this presentation are based on management’s knowledge of the industry and the good faith estimates of management. We also relied, to the extent available, upon management’s review of independent industry surveys and publications and other publicly available information prepared by a number of third-party sources. All of the market data and industry information used in this presentation involves a number of assumptions and limitations, and you are cautioned not to give undue weight to such estimates. Although we believe that these sources are reliable, we cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this information, and we have not independently verified this information. While we believe the estimated market position, market opportunity and market size information included in this presentation are generally reliable, such information, which is derived in part from management’s estimates and beliefs, is inherently uncertain and imprecise. Projections, assumptions and estimates of our future performance and the future performance of the industry in which we operate are necessarily subject to a high degree of uncertainty and risk due to a variety of factors, including those described above. These and other factors could cause results to differ materially from those expressed in our estimates and beliefs and in the estimates prepared by independent parties.

Non-GAAP Financial Measures

We present Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA margin to help us describe our operating performance. Our presentation of Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA margin is intended as a supplemental measure of our performance that is not required by, or presented in accordance with, U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA margin should not be considered as an alternative to operating income (loss), net income (loss), earnings per share or any other performance measures derived in accordance with U.S. GAAP as measures of operating performance or operating cashflows or as measures of liquidity. Our presentation of Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA margin should not be construed to imply that our future results will be unaffected by these items. See the supplemental materials to this presentation for a reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA margin to net income (loss).

Data in this presentation are generally as of, or for the 2020 fiscal year ended January 2, 2021, unless otherwise noted.

Page 3: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

COMPANY OVERVIEW

Page 4: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Our Positioning & COVID-19 Response

Our Business Model is Well Positioned… …And We have Acted Decisively to Support Customers, IOs and Partners

We Are Proud of Our IOs & Their Employees, Who Have Stepped Up in These Extraordinary Times

Enacted comprehensive safety measures in observance of CDC & public health guidelines

Worked closely with supplier partners to keep pace with demand, purchasing opportunistic & everyday products

Focused customer communications on local product availability, safety precautions and community outreach

Maintained a strong liquidity position with $105mm of cash and over $90mm available on our revolving credit facility

Supported IOs by providing financial support and guidance through a COVID call center, Clean, Safe Store initiative, and updates on local operating requirements

We have a flexible supply chain, logistics network and merchandising to respond to demand spikes

We provide our customers with extreme value at a time when they are seeking to maximize savings

We offer an assortment of familiar & trusted high-quality, name-brand consumables along with fresh products

We serve as pillars of our local communities with personalized service

IOs manage labor payment at the store-level and comply with the mandates of their local government

4

Page 5: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

(1) As of January 2, 2021.(2) Source:eSite.(3) Fiscal years 2004-2020.

Grocery Outlet Is a Differentiated, High-Growth, Off-Price Retailer

17Consecutive Years of Positive

Comparable Store Sales Growth (3)

$3.1bnFY 2020

Net Sales

$223mmFY 2020

AdjustedEBITDA

Strong Financial Performance

5.6%Average Comparable Store Sales

Growth Over Past 17 Years (3)

1,900In-Market and Neighboring

States Potential Stores (2)

Attractive Store Base

10%Store Count CAGR FY 2015 to FY 2020

380 Stores Across 6 States(1)

221

67

568

9 19

40% - 70%Prices Below ConventionalRetailers

On Our BestDeals

~50%Opportunistically Sourced Products

5,000Ever-Changing SKUs Per Store

Promote Treasure HuntExperience

Differentiated Model

340+Independent Operators

Create Local Shopping Experience

~14,000Square Foot

Average Store Size

40%+Year 4 Cash-on-Cash Returns

Historically

$105mmCash Balance as of FY 2020(1)

5

Page 6: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

We Have Continued to Make Significant Progress Since Our IPO

Compelling value and treasure hunt experience from strong opportunisticpurchasing

Continued Solid Broad-based growth with Natural, Organic, Specialty, Healthy (NOSH), fresh categories, and beer and wine as standoutsProduct, IO

Performance, and Marketing

Execution

Continued growth of newly introduced fresh seafood and grass-fed meat

Improvements in ordering and distribution systems that enhance IO localized assortment decisions

GO brand refresh supported by new Bargain Bliss marketing campaign

Continued growth in email subscriber database to drive engagement

Opened 35 new stores (2 closures) in FY 2020

New stores are performing well and in-line with expectations

Began developing the East infrastructure, with new store openings planned in 2021

Continued to invest in talent & systems to build the infrastructure that will support future growth

Expanded Footprint and

Growth Initiatives

Reduced net leverage (3) from 5.5x pre-IPO to 1.6x FY 2020

Flexible credit facility with no principal payments due until 2025 and ample capacity vs. 7x leverage covenant

Cash balance of $105mm as of FY 2020-end

Improved Balance Sheet

(1) Defined as (Total Debt – Cash) / FY 2020 Adj. EBITDA.

Delivered Solid Business

Performance

Comparable stores sales growth of 7.9%

Net Sales grew 23.1% to $806.8mm

Adjusted EBITDA grew 24.7% to $51.2mm

FY 2020 Results

Comparable stores sales growth of 12.7%

Net Sales growth of 22.5%

Adjusted EBITDA grew 32.4% to $222.9mm

Q4 2020 Results

6

Page 7: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

The WOW! Shopping Experience

• Extreme value• ~40% average basket

savings (1)

• ~40% - 70% savings on best deals (1)

• Distinct and proven buying model

• Locally owned and operated• Friendly, high-touch service• Active in community• Family-run stores• Easy-to-shop stores

• Name-brand products• Fresh• Natural Organic Specialty

Healthy (NOSH)• Quality guarantee• Clean, well-merchandised

stores

PRICE SERVICEQUALITY

TREASURE HUNT DISCOVERY= FUN!

• Unexpected deals

• Ever-changing assortment

• Curated and localized merchandise

(1) Compared to conventional grocers.7

Page 8: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

OpportunisticSourcing

Treasure HuntExperience

E-Commerce asa % of Sales

✓ ✓ 0%

✓ ✓ 0%

✓ ✓ <5%

✓ ✓ <2%

✓ ✓ 0%

✓ ✓ <1%

Grocery Outlet’s Model Is Well-Positioned Against Other Off-Price / Discount Retailers

Source: Company filings available as of 12/31/20.

8

Page 9: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Consistent Track Record of Earnings Growth

Strong Comp Performance

Disciplined Store Growth

Consistent Margins

Track Record of Earnings

Growth

2020 was our 17th Consecutive Year of Positive Comparable Store Sales Growth

TotalStores

Gross Margin %

Adjusted EBITDA (1) ($mm)

Average: 5.6%

Strong and Consistent Annual Gross Margins Between 30.1% and 31.1% since 2010

9

8.4%4.9%

0.8% 0.6%

12.3% 14.7%

2.6%5.4% 5.0%

0.2%

5.2% 4.2% 3.6% 5.3% 3.9% 5.2%

12.7%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

237 265 293 316 347 380

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

30.2% 30.6% 30.4% 30.4% 30.8% 31.1%

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

$107 $121 $135 $152 $168$223

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(1) Beginning with the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020, we updated our definitions of non-GAAP financial measures to simplify our presentation and enhance comparability between periods

Page 10: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

While Each Recession is Unique, Grocery Outlet Had Strong Comparable Store Sales Growth Performance in 2008-2009

Source: Company filings, company projections, publicly available information and FactSet. n = 184(1) Reflects 2008 and 2009 comparable store sales growth stack for all U.S. retailers that were public during 2008 and 2009 and have reported comparable store sales growth figures for these years on FactSet.

(15%)

Recessionary Conditions (2008 – 2009)

27%

(9%) (5%) 3% 7%

2-year stack Comparable Store Sales Growth of selected public retailers (1)

19%8%4%(3%) (2%)(6%)

10

Page 11: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Grocery Outlet Evolution: Over 70 Years of Delivering The WOW!

AcquiresAmelia’s andexpands to EastCoast

Expands to Southern California market

Berkshire Partners invests

Hellman & Friedman invests

Opens 300th

store in Inglewood

Reaches $2billion in sales

$2bn

Eric Lindberg and MacGregor Read become Co-CEOs

Jim Readopens“Cannery Sales”

Signs first IO Agreement in Redmond, OR

19731946 2006

2011

2012

2009

2014

2018

2017

Publicly-listedCompany

2019

11

Page 12: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Strong Commitment To Corporate Culture

Grocery Outlet is driven by family values that are reflected throughout the organization

Integrity Collaboration Performance

Our Mission:

Touching Lives For The Better

Entrepreneurship

12

Page 13: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS ANDGROWTH STRATEGIES

Page 14: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Growth Strategies

Investment Highlights & Growth Strategies

FLEXIBLE SOURCING AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL THAT IS DIFFICULT TO REPLICATE

INDEPENDENT OPERATORS: OUR“SMALL BUSINESS AT SCALE” MODEL

ATTRACTIVE AND CONSISTENT NEW STORE ECONOMICS SUPPORT WHITESPACE

STRONG CONSUMER ENGAGEMENT AND ALIGNMENT WITH MACRO TRENDS

POWERFUL CUSTOMER VALUE PROPOSITION SUPPORTED BY A “WOW!” EXPERIENCE

Investment Highlights

III

IV

V

II

I

DRIVE COMPARABLE STORE SALES GROWTH

Be the First Choice for Bargain-Minded Customers Across the Country

EXECUTE ON STORE EXPANSION PLANS

IMPROVE PRODUCTIVITY AND REINVESTIN THE VALUE PROPOSITION

14

Page 15: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Our Fundamentally Different Approach To Buying and Selling

Opportunistic sourcing of quality, name-brand, fresh products

Large, centralized purchasing team

Long-standing, actively managedsupplier relationships

Proactive sourcing of on-trend products and brands

Everyday core staples to complement ourWOW! offerings

Independently operated, local, small-box stores

Personalized customer service

High community involvement

IOs control store operations and oversee:

Product selection

Hiring, training and managingtheir store workers

Local marketing

Small Business at Scale

How We SellHow We Buy

“Out Chain the Locals, Out Local the Chains”

15

Page 16: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Flexible Sourcing and Distribution Model Anchored by Purchasing Team and Relationships

Long-Standing Suppliers…

…And New Emerging Suppliers

…Who Make Us One ofTheir First Calls

RELATIONSHIP

BRAND PROTECTION

EXECUTION

SCALE

16

Page 17: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Substantial Opportunity to Further Grow Opportunistic Supply

SecondaryMarket

Significant Share Gain Opportunity Ongoing Secondary Market Growth

17

Page 18: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Opportunistic purchasesrepresent CPG excessinventory

GO is a preferred CPGpartner for a non-disruptive, brand-protected sales channel

Allows GO to pass along significant savings to customers while making a healthy margin

When staples, such as milk or sugar, cannot be sourced opportunistically, GO buys from suppliers

Provides customer convenience via a more complete product assortment

Products priced at or below conventional supermarkets’ and discount competitors’ everyday prices

Grocery Outlet’s Differentiated SourcingModel Delivers Great Value To Customers

Opportunistic Everyday Core Staples

Two Primary Methods

~50% of Purchases ~50% of Purchases

18

Page 19: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

~20%

~40%

Favorable Value Proposition vs. Other Retailers

% Savings Across Store Relative to Competitors(1)

(1) Savings vs. Conventional/Discount derived from Grocery Outlet’s pricing research as of June 2019 based on a blended basket of items from Safeway and Walmart for 5,000+ SKUs from multiple regions.

Conventional Grocery

Discount Grocery

Basket Savings Further Differentiation

AND IN AN EASY-TO-SHOP STORE!

AND WE PROVIDEEXTREME VALUE!

BUT WITH NO MEMBERSHIP FEE

OR BULK SIZES!

BUT OFFERS LEADINGNATIONAL BRANDS!

ACROSS A FULL GROCERY ASSORTMENT!

BUT WITH FRIENDLY, HIGH-TOUCHSERVICE!

CLUB STORES

DEEPDISCOUNTERS

DOLLAR STORES

ONLINE

19

Page 20: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Unique Independent Operator Model Fuels Success

Merchandising Managing inventory Modifypricing Hiring and trainingstore

employees Community and

customer service

Operational

IO BENEFITS

Wages Local marketing Storeoperating

expenses Operating

working capital Operatingassets

Financial

Operational

Financial

Sourcing Initial Pricing Recruiting and

trainingIOs Real estate Distribution and

logistics

Own inventory (consigned to IOs)

Regional marketing Rent Capex Corporate SG&A

Autonomy

Scale benefits

Significant incomeopportunity

Aligned economic interests

Reduced fixed costs

Locally driven loyalty

GROCERY OUTLETBENEFITS

Collaboration with and amongst IOs enables real-time feedback and best-practice sharing for continual improvement

Independent Operators

20

“Out Chain the Locals, Out Local the Chains”

Page 21: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Compelling Store Economics For Both Grocery Outlet and Our Independent Operators

IO Model Reduces GO’s Fixed Cost Burden

Illustrative Expense Split

"Traditional" Model IO Model

VariableCosts Fixed Costs

Note: Dollars in millions.

21

Fixed Costs

Fixed Costs IOCommission

COGS ex. Rent

IO model

COGS ex. Rent

reducesfixed costburden$6.9

$2.1

GO IO

Upfront Investment

CapEx Buildout

Inventory / Pre-Opening

IO Assets / Working Capital

Illustrative Year-4 P&L

SalesGross Profit

Share of Gross Profit 50% 50%

Wages, Taxes, Benefits

Occupancy

Page 22: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Selective Independent Operator Recruiting And Rigorous Training

Annual Leads: 20,000+

First Contact: Phone Screen & Initial Review

Considered: On-Site Executive Interviews

Selected:

70+

22

Enter 6 – 9 Month Aspiring Operator In Training Program

Page 23: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Centralized Marketing Coupled With Local IO Marketing Efforts

In-Store Localization

Targeted Promotions

Active Social Media

Presence

Community Involvement

Local Marketing Driven By IOsEnterprise Marketing Driven By Grocery Outlet

Digital

Social Media Digital Ads WOW! Alerts

Radio / Connected TV Influencer

Print Radio Television

Traditional

23

Page 24: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Significant Whitespace Opportunity

Opportunity to establish additional ~1,500 “In-Market” and neighboring state locations Long term market potential to establish ~4,800 stores nationally

221

67

568

919

Source:eSite.Note: Map figures as of January 2, 2021.

380

~1,900

As of 1/2/2021

In-Market and Neighboring State

Potential

+5x Potential

24

Page 25: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Market Expansion Strategy and Success

Market entry in 2012

86 stores in Southern CA(1)

Strong Presence in Southern CA Foundation For Growth in The Mid-Atlantic

Acquired Amelia's Grocery Outlet in 2011

Goal: to accommodate supplier partners more effectively

25 (1) As of January 2, 2021.

Bakersfield

San Diego

Los Angeles

HarrisburgPhiladelphia

Page 26: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Attractive and Historically Consistent New Store Economics

Note: Dollars in thousands. Cash-on-cash return defined as four-wall EBITDA divided by total initial net cash investment.

Sales

Year4

~$6,875

GO Four Wall EBITDAContribution ~$680

% Four Wall EBITDA Margin ~10%

Cash-on-CashReturn ~35%

Overview

We employ a blended underwriting model reflecting average economics across all urbanicities, geographies and store types

New stores require average net cash investment of ~$2mm

4 – 5 year store ramp until maturity

Payback period of less than 4 years

Recent cohorts have outperformed the new store model

Model Assumptions

26

Page 27: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Technology

We Are Winning Through Constant Investments To Continually Strengthen Our Value Proposition

Talent

27

Page 28: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK

Page 29: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

$1,627

$1,832

$2,075

$2,288

$2,560

$3,135

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Historical Financial Performance

29

Strong and Disciplined Net Sales Growth

6.7%

Track Record of Adjusted EBITDA Growth (1)

Note: Dollars in millions.

Stores 237 265 293 316 347 380

Unit Growth 9% 12% 11% 8% 10% 10%

Comp 4.2% 3.6% 5.3% 3.9% 5.2% 12.7%

$107

$121

$135

$152

$168

$223

6.5% 6.6% 6.5% 6.6% 6.6%7.1%

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

16.0%

20.0%

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

(1) Beginning with the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020, we updated our definitions of non-GAAP financial measures to simplify our presentation and enhance comparability between periods

Page 30: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

8.4%

4.9%

0.8% 0.6%

12.3%

14.7%

2.6%

5.4% 5.0%

0.2%

5.2%4.2% 3.6%

5.3%3.9%

5.2%

12.7%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

4.9%5.9% 5.3% 5.1% 4.5%

2.7%

4.2% 4.1% 4.2% 5.8% 5.8% 5.1%

17.4% 16.7%

9.1%

7.9%

Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17 Q4'17 Q1'18 Q2'18 Q3'18 Q4'18 Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20

FY 2017 – FY 2020 Quarterly Comparable Store Sales Growth

17 Consecutive Years of Positive Comparable Store Sales Growth

Recessionary Economic Conditions

2004 – 2020 Average: 5.6%

2017 – 2020 Average: 6.8%

30

Page 31: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

46.1%$24.2MM

Q4 2020 Recent Developments

Fourteen WeeksEnded January 2, 2021

Y-o-YGrowth

Stores 380 9.5%

Comparable Store Sales Growth 7.9%

Net Sales $806.8MM 23.1%

Adj. EBITDA 24.7%$51.2MM

31

Note: Dollars in millions.

(1) As of March 2, 2021.

280 bps

Adj. Net Income

Q4 Highlights

Adjusted EBITDA increased 24.7% to $51.2MM.

Currently expects to open between 36 and 38 storesthis year with one closure.

2021 Outlook

Opened eight new stores ending the quarter with 380 stores in six states

Comp store sales increased by 7.9% over a 5.1% increase in the same period last year. Comp store sales increases continued to be driven by increases in average basket that were partially offset by declines in traffic

As of March 2, 2021, we expect Q1 comp store saleswill decline negative HSDs reflecting the impact ofcycling initial demand surge related to COVID-19pandemic in March 2020.

Page 32: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Capital Structure

Capitalization

Note: Dollars in millions.(1)(2)

Defined as Adj, EBITDA / Net Interest Expense Defined as (Total Debt – Cash) / Adj. EBITDA.

● Used IPO proceeds to repay in full its second lien term loan (~$150mm) and prepay ~$250mm of its outstanding first lien term loann

● In October 2019, the Company prepaid additional $15mm of its outstanding first lien term loan

● In January 2020, repriced its first lien term loan at L+275bps, down from L+375bps originally

● In March 2020, the Company drew down $90mm from its revolving credit facility as a precautionary measure in light of COVID-19

● The entirety of this draw down was repaid on May 26, 2020

● No required principal payments until2025

Net Leverage (2)Interest Coverage(1)

32

FY 2019

Cash & Cash Equivalents $28 $105

Total Gross Debt $460 $460

Net Debt $432 $345

Adj. EBITDA $168 $223

Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA 2.6x 1.6x

5.5x

2.9x 2.6x1.6x

Pre-IPO Post-IPO FY 2019 FY 2020

3.7x

11.2x

2019 2020

FY 2020

Page 33: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

Long-Term Targets

Annual Unit Growth ~10%

Comparable Store Sales Growth 1 – 3% annually

Adjusted EBITDA Stable as a % of Sales

Adjusted Net Income Growth Mid-teens %

33

Page 34: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

APPENDIX

Page 35: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

35

FY 2020 Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation

Note: Dollars in millions.

(a) Includes depreciation related to our distribution centers which is included within the cost of sales line item in our consolidated statements of operations and comprehensive income.

(b) Fiscal year ended amounts include non-cash share-based compensation expense and $0.4 million and $3.6 million of cash dividends paid in fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2019, respectively, in respect of vestedoptions as a result of dividends declared in connection with our 2018 Recapitalization and our 2016 Recapitalization.

(c) Consists of the non-cash portion of rent expense, which represents the difference between our straight-line rent expense recognized under GAAP and cash rent payments. The adjustment can varydepending on the average age of our lease portfolio, which has been impacted by our significant growth in recent years.

(d) Represents impairment charges with respect to planned store closures and gains or losses on dispositions of assets in connection with store transitions to new IOs.

(e) Represents non-cash changes in reserves related to our IO notes and accounts receivable.

(f) Represents other non-recurring, non-cash or non-operational items, such as transaction related costs, including costs related to employer payroll taxes associated with equity awards, secondary equityofferings, store closing costs, personnel-related costs, legal expenses, debt extinguishment and modification costs, strategic project costs, and miscellaneous costs.

(g) Includes marketing, occupancy and other expenses incurred in connection with store grand openings, including costs that will be the IO’s responsibility after store opening.

2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020A Location on P&L

Net Income $5 $10 $21 $16 $15 $106

Interest expense, net 46 47 50 55 46 20 Interest Expense

Taxes 3 7 5 6 1 (20) Income Tax

Depreciation and amortization (a) 31 37 43 47 50 58 COGS/D&A

EBITDA $85 $101 $119 $124 $113 $165

Stock-based compensation (b) 0 3 2 10 31 38 SBC

Non-cash rent (c) 10 8 8 8 11 11 SG&A

Asset impairment and gain or loss on disposition (d) 1 1 1 1 2 2 SG&A

Provision for accounts receivable reserves (e) 1 4 3 1 3 (0.5) SG&A

Other (f) 6 4 2 7 9 8 SG&A

Adjusted EBITDA, revised definition $107 $121 $135 $152 $168 $223

Revised definition no longer adjusts for: SG&A

New store pre-opening expenses (g) 2 3 2 2 2 2 SG&A

Adjusted EBITDA, previous definition $108 $123 $136 $154 $170 $224

Page 36: COMPANYOVERVIEW - Grocery Outlet, Inc.

FY 2020 Adjusted Net Income Reconciliation

36

Note: Dollars in millions.(a) Fiscal year ended amounts include non-cash share-based compensation expense and $0.4 million and $3.6 million of cash dividends paid in fiscal 2020 and fiscal 2019, respectively, in respect of vested options as a

result of dividends declared in connection with our 2018 Recapitalization and our 2016 Recapitalization.(b) Consists of the non-cash portion of rent expense, which represents the difference between our straight-line rent expense recognized under GAAP and cash rent payments. The adjustment can vary depending on the

average age of our lease portfolio, which has been impacted by our significant growth in recent years.(c) Represents impairment charges with respect to planned store closures and gains or losses on dispositions of assets in connection with store transitions to new IOs.(d) Represents non-cash changes in reserves related to our IO notes and accounts receivable.(e) Represents other non-recurring, non-cash or non-operational items, such as transaction related costs, including costs related to employer payroll taxes associated with equity awards, secondary equity offerings,

store closing costs, personnel-related costs, legal expenses, debt extinguishment and modification costs, strategic project costs, and miscellaneous costs.Represents other non-recurring, non-cash or non-operationalitems, such as transaction related costs, including costs related to employer payroll taxes associated with equity awards, secondary equity offerings, store closing costs, personnel-related costs, legal expenses, debtextinguishment and modification costs, strategic project costs, and miscellaneous costs.

(f) Represents the amortization of debt issuance costs and incremental amortization of an asset step-up resulting from purchase price accounting related to our acquisition in 2014 by an investment fund affiliated withHellman & Friedman LLC, which included trademarks, customer lists, and below-market leases.

(g) Represents excess tax benefits related to stock option exercises and vesting of restricted stock units to be recorded in earnings as discrete items in the reporting period in which they occur.(h) Represents the tax effect of the total adjustments. Because of the increased impact of discrete items on our effective tax rate including the excess tax benefits from the exercise of stock options and vesting of RSU

share-based awards, beginning in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019, we changed our methodology to calculate the tax effect of the total adjustments on a discrete basis excluding any non-recurring and unusual taxitems. Prior to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019, the methodology we used was to calculate the tax effect of the total adjustments using our quarterly effective tax rate.

(i) Includes marketing, occupancy and other expenses incurred in connection with store grand openings, including costs that will be the IO’s responsibility after store opening.

FY 2019 FY 2020

Net Income $15.4 $106.7

Stock-based compensation expenses (a) 31.4 38.1

Non-cash rent (b) 10.6 10.7

Asset impairment and gain or loss on disposition (c) 2.0 1.7

Provision for accounts receivable reserves (d) 2.6 (0.5)

Other (e) 8.9 7.7

Amortization of purchase accounting assets and deferred financing costs (f) 11.9 11.8

Tax impact of option exercises and vesting of restricted stock units (g) (3.6) (44.1)

Tax effect of total adjustments (h) (18.9) (19.5)

Adjusted Net Income, revised definition $60.3 $112.7

Revised definition no longer adjusts for:

New store pre-opening expenses (i ) 1.5 1.5

Revised definition now adjusts for:

Tax impact of option exercises and vesting of restricted stock units (g) 3.6 44.1

Change in tax effect of total adjustments (h) (0.4) (0.4)

Adjusted Net Income, previous definition $65.0 $157.9


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