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Comparative Statics in the ISLM Model - DePauw - DePauw …€¦ · XLS file · Web view ·...

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31
Page 1 of 31 This workbook implements the ISLM Model. (This sheet prints on 3 landscaped pages) The fundamental goal is to understand short-run fluctuations (boom and bust behavior) in a market economy. Organization There are so many pieces to the model, that it gets confusing. Here's a handy map: This is the third workbook in the Keynesian Model series of workbooks. 1) KCross.xls 2) MoneyMarket.xls 4) ISLMADAS.xls 3) ISLM.xls <-- you are here ISLM Model (Y, r endo; P exo) You are here. ISLMADAS Model (Y, r, P endo) IS LM Goods Market (Y endo; r, P exo) Money Market (r endo; Y, P exo) AD AS KCross.x ls ISLM.x ls ISLMADAS.xl s MoneyMarket.x ls
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Comparative Statics in the ISLM Model

IntroThis workbook implements the ISLM Model.(This sheet prints on 3 landscaped pages)The fundamental goal is to understand short-run fluctuations (boom and bust behavior) in a market economy.OrganizationThere are so many pieces to the model, that it gets confusing. Here's a handy map:This is the third workbook in the Keynesian Model series of workbooks.1) KCross.xls2) MoneyMarket.xls3) ISLM.xls 0 is so critical to the ISLM Model. Focus on differences in the way the model behaves.Put your answer in a Word doc and take pictures as needed that illustrate and support your answer.1.C) Asset Market Equilibrationvimeo.com/econexcel/islmassetmarketTask 1.C: Create a copy of the ISLM sheet and click the Random Parameters button to generate your own economy. Rename the sheet Task1C.Referring to specific numbers from your random economy, explain how asset market equilibration differs from cobweb equilibration.Put your answer in a Word doc and take pictures as needed that illustrate and support your answer.1.D) The Stability of Cobweb Equilibrationvimeo.com/econexcel/islmstabilityTask 1.D: Create a copy of the ISLM sheet and click the Random Parameters button to generate your own economy. Rename the sheet Task1D.Click the Show Stability in your new economy to see if your economy is stable or not.Choose an r, Y pair above the LM curve and to the left of the IS curve and enter these values in cells B18 and B19.Use the Clear Goods Market and Clear Money Market buttons to demonstrate that the equilibrium is or is not stable.Keep track of the positions of the two markets as you equilibrate one, then the other and report these results in a Word doc (taking pictures is an easy way to do this or you can use Excel's Scenario Manager).Does your analysis agree with cell G38? Is this a surprise?Group 2: The next three screencasts are concerned with the mechanics of the model itself and how it functions.2.A) Deriving the IS and LM Curvesvimeo.com/econexcel/islmderiveTask 2.A: Create a copy of the ISLMCS sheet and click the Random Parameters button to generate your own economy. Rename the sheet Task2A.Use the scroll bar to make investment demand as elastic as possible.Take a picture of the Investment graph and paste it in a Word doc.Below this graph in your Word doc, answer this question: Would the Fed prefer this investment demand to an extremely inelastic investment demand? Why or why not?2.B): Exactly Correctly Shifting Curvesvimeo.com/econexcel/islmshiftingTask 2.B: Click the link below to search the web for "is lm" in image files (or do this manually if the link doesn't work):https://www.google.com/search?q="is lm"&tbm=ischScan the images and find one that is wrong because the shift shown is incorrect.Copy and paste the graph in a Word doc and explain why it is wrong.2.C) Attenuation and Crowding Outvimeo.com/econexcel/islmcrowdingoutTask 2.C: Show that the tax multplier is also attenuated as we move from the No Feedback to the standard ISLM Model.Take screenshots as needed and explain what is going on in a Word doc.Group 3: The final four screencasts are devoted to the comparative statics properties of the model, including applications and analysis of fiscal and monetary policy.3.A) Shocks to Explain Economic Fluctuationsvimeo.com/econexcel/islmfluctuationsTask 3.A: Try to add random noise (with the RAND() function) to a different exogenous variable to see if it matches the fluctuations in observed Y, C, and I.Take screenshots as needed and write up your procedure and results in a Word.doc.3.B) Macro Policy Toolsvimeo.com/econexcel/islmpolicyTask 3.B: Click the Random Parameters button in the ISLMCS sheet to generate your own economy.Suppose full-employment, potential GDP is 10% greater than Ye. Show how G, T, and Ms can be used to stimulate the economy and steer it to its full-employment level of output.Take screenshots as needed and write up your procedure and results in a Word.doc.3.C) Breaking the Monetary Transmission Mechanismvimeo.com/econexcel/islmfedpowerlessTask 3.C: Using the same random parameters as Task 3.B, make money demand extremely elastic and show how this affects the Fed's ability to stimulate the economy.Take screenshots as needed and write up your procedure and results in a Word.doc.3.D) Deriving ADvimeo.com/econexcel/islmderivingadTask 3.D: Use the ISLMAD sheet to explore the effect on AD of changing the MPC.Figure out if the shift in AD is constant for different levels of P (like G and T) or varying (like Ms).Take screenshots as needed and write up your procedure and results in a Word.doc.Since you made it this far, you might be interested in putting your knowledge of ISLM to a fun test.Also, don't forget to check out the Final sheet.

Show the ISLM Gamevimeo.com/econexcel/islmintrovimeo.com/econexcel/islmequilibrationvimeo.com/econexcel/islmassetmarketvimeo.com/econexcel/islmassetmarketvimeo.com/econexcel/islmstabilityvimeo.com/econexcel/islmstabilityvimeo.com/econexcel/islmderivevimeo.com/econexcel/islmderivehttps://www.google.com/search?q="is lm"&tbm=ischhttps://www.google.com/search?q="is lm"&tbm=ischvimeo.com/econexcel/islmshiftingvimeo.com/econexcel/islmfluctuationsvimeo.com/econexcel/islmpolicyvimeo.com/econexcel/islmderivingadvimeo.com/econexcel/islmcrowdingoutvimeo.com/econexcel/islmfluctuationsvimeo.com/econexcel/islmpolicyvimeo.com/econexcel/islmfedpowerlessvimeo.com/econexcel/islmderivingad

NoFeedbackThis is a half-connected version of the model: r affects Y in the goods market, but Y does not feedback into r in the money market. Studying this version of the model will help you understand the ISLM graph.Exogenous VariablesData for graphs can be seen by scrolling down.cons_intercept0.4trillion $C0cons_slope0.71C1, MPC (marginal propensity to consume)Must click the Initial button to have the reduced-form solution in cells B18, B19 for the cells below to work.inv_intercept10trillion $I0INITIALinv_slope-43I1Zoom Amountre12.403%gov2.6trillion $G, government spending2Ye17.868533171trillion $tax_tran3.5trillion $T, taxes - transfersGov Budget (+/-)0.9trillion $+ surplus; - deficitNEWL_intercept15.2948265368trillion $L0re12.403%L_Y_slope0LYYe17.868533171trillion $L_r_slope-108LrM/P1.9trillion $real money supplyShockDL_Y_slope0.0Dre0.000%DYe-0Endogenous Variablesr12.403%real interest rateY17.868533171trillion $Output/IncomeC10.6016585514trillion $ConsumptionI4.6668746196trillion $Investmentr --> I --> PE --> YL1.9Money demandEquilibrium Condition: Y = C + I + GEquilibrium Condition: L = M/PY (output/income)17.868533171trillion $C+I+G17.868533171trillion $Difference (Y - (C+I+G))0trillion $M/P1.9trillion $L1.9trillion $Difference (M/P - L)0trillion $Total Difference0Zoom Amount2%Data for INITIALLive data for NEWIS CurveMake Base button puts exo var values from column B above here:Ye=f(r|exo vars)rYerYeINITIAL (column C) is using these parameter values; this makes it easy to change parameters and create new problems0.0%36.25862068970.00%36.2586206897Exogenous Variables12.4%17.86853317112.40%17.868533171cons_intercept0.4trillion $C024.5%024.45%0cons_slope0.71C1, MPC (marginal propensity to consume)inv_intercept10trillion $I0LM Curveinv_slope-43I1re=f(Y|exo vars)YreYregov2.6trillion $G, government spending36.258620689712.4%36.258620689712.4%tax_tran3.5trillion $T, taxes - transfers17.86853317112.4%17.86853317112.4%Gov Budget (+/-)0.9trillion $+ surplus; - deficit012.4%012.4%L_intercept15.2948265368trillion $L0L_Y_slope0LYL_r_slope-108LrKeynesian CrossM/P1.9trillion $real money supplyYPEYPEComputing Ye, re:36.258620689730.925495309336.258620689730.9254953093Ye17.86853317117.86853317117.86853317117.86853317117.868533171re12.40%05.181874619605.1818746196Computing intercept adjustment for changing elasticity of L:1.9Computing intercept adjustment for changing elasticity of I:Money Market4.6668746196MreMsMreMs15.29482653680.0%1.915.29482653680.0%1.91.912.4%1.91.912.4%1.9-11.11494090524.5%1.9-11.11494090524.5%1.9Investment DemandrIrI0.000%100.0%1012.403%4.666874619612.4%4.666874619624.453%-0.51524.5%-0.515

NoFeedback

PEY (income in trillion $)trillion $Goods MarketPE45o

S5This is a half-connected version of the model: r affects Y in the goods market, but Y does not feedback into r in the money market. Studying this version of the model will help you understand the ISLM graph.Exogenous VariablesData for graphs can be seen by scrolling down.cons_intercept0.3trillion $C0cons_slope0.8C1, MPC (marginal propensity to consume)Must click the Initial button to have the reduced-form solution in cells B18, B19 for the cells below to work.inv_intercept3.5trillion $I0INITIALinv_slope-50I1Zoom Amountre2.800%Gov spending3trillion $government spending2Ye17trillion $taxes - transfers2.5trillion $taxes - transfersGov Budget (+/-)-0.5trillion $+ surplus; - deficitNEWL_intercept5.4trillion $L0reL_Y_slope0LYYetrillion $L_r_slope-100LrM/P2.6trillion $real money supplyShock0.0Dre0.000%DYe0Endogenous Variablesr5.000%real interest rateY11.5trillion $Output/IncomeC7.5trillion $ConsumptionI1trillion $Investmentr --> I --> PE --> YL0.4Money demandrYeEquilibrium Condition: Y = C + I + G1%21.5Equilibrium Condition: L = M/P3%16.5Y (output/income)11.5trillion $5%11.5C+I+G11.5trillion $Difference (Y - (C+I+G))0trillion $M/P2.6trillion $L0.4trillion $Difference (M/P - L)2.2trillion $Total Difference2.2Zoom Amount2%Data for INITIALLive data for NEWIS CurveMake Base button puts exo var values from column B above here:Ye=f(r|exo vars)rYerYeINITIAL (column C) is using these parameter values; this makes it easy to change parameters and create new problems0.0%240.00%24Exogenous Variables2.8%172.80%17cons_intercept0.3trillion $C09.6%09.60%-0cons_slope0.8C1, MPC (marginal propensity to consume)inv_intercept3.5trillion $I0LM Curveinv_slope-50I1re=f(Y|exo vars)YreYreGov spending3trillion $government spending242.8%242.8%taxes - transfers2.5trillion $taxes - transfers172.8%172.8%Gov Budget (+/-)-0.5trillion $+ surplus; - deficit02.8%02.8%L_intercept5.4trillion $L0L_Y_slope0LYL_r_slope-100LrKeynesian CrossM/P2.6trillion $real money supplyYPEYPEComputing Ye, re:2422.62421.5Ye1717171715.9re2.80%03.402.3Computing intercept adjustment for changing elasticity of L:2.6Computing intercept adjustment for changing elasticity of I:Money Market2.1MreMsMreMs5.40.0%2.65.40.0%2.62.62.8%2.62.62.8%2.6-4.29.6%2.6-4.29.6%2.6Investment DemandrIrI0.000%3.50.0%3.52.800%2.12.8%2.19.600%-1.39.6%-1.3

M (trillion S)interest rateMoney MarketLMS/PI (trillion $)interest rateInvestmentIInitialScenario Comp StaticsMake BaseZoom InZoom OutDefault AxesCenter Current Y (B19)Zoom InZoom OutDefault AxesCenter Current r (B18)Random ParametersRandom Initial r, YReset to BaseNo Feedback b/c LY = 0Y (trillion $)ISLMIS241717000.0280.0280.096Fit to ScreenZoomerClear Money MarketClear Goods Market

S5

PEY (income in trillion $)trillion $Goods MarketPE45o

ISLMChange Exogenous Variable cells to see how Ye, re (C and I) and the Keynesian Cross, Money Market, I Demand, and IS/LM graphs changeExogenous VariablesData for graphs can be seen by scrolling down.cons_intercept0.3trillion $C0cons_slope0.8C1, MPC (marginal propensity to consume)inv_intercept3.5trillion $I050inv_slope-50I1Zoom Amountgov3trillion $G, government spending2tax_tran2.5trillion $T, taxes - transfersGov Budget (+/-)-0.5trillion $+ surplus; - deficitL_intercept2trillion $L0L_Y_slope0.2LYL_r_slope-100LrM/P2.6trillion $real money supplyEndogenous VariablesReplay initial valuesr2.800%real interest rate0.028Y17trillion $Output/Income17C11.9trillion $ConsumptionI2.1trillion $InvestmentL2.6Money demandEquilibrium Condition: Y = C + I + GEquilibrium Condition: L = M/PY (output/income)17trillion $C+I+G17trillion $Difference (Y - (C+I+G))0trillion $M/P2.6trillion $L2.6trillion $Difference (M/P - L)0trillion $Total Difference024IS intercept-250IS slope-0.006LM intercept0.002LM slope17Ye check0.5IS/LM slope ratioYes, IS steeper --> stableCobweb stability?Zoom Amount2%ISMake Base button puts exo var values from column B above here:Ye=f(r|exo vars)rYeThe charts above are using these parameter values; this makes it easy to change parameters and create new problems0.0%24Exogenous Variables2.8%17cons_intercept0.3trillion $C09.6%0cons_slope0.8C1, MPC (marginal propensity to consume)inv_intercept3.5trillion $I0LMinv_slope-50I1re=f(Y|exo vars)Yregov3trillion $G, government spending244.2%tax_tran2.5trillion $T, taxes - transfers172.8%Gov Budget (+/-)-0.5trillion $+ surplus; - deficit0-0.6%L_intercept2trillion $L0L_Y_slope0.2LYL_r_slope-100LrKeynesian CrossM/P2.6trillion $real money supplyYPEComputing Ye, re:2422.6Ye171717re2.80%03.4Computing intercept adjustment for changing elasticity of L:-0.8Money MarketMreMs5.40.0%2.62.62.8%2.6-4.29.6%2.6Investment DemandrI0.000%3.52.800%2.19.600%-1.3

M (trillion S)interest rateMoney MarketLMS/PI (trillion $)interest rateInvestmentIInitialScenario Comp StaticsMake BaseZoom InZoom OutDefault AxesCenter Current Y (B19)Zoom InZoom OutDefault AxesCenter Current r (B18)Random ParametersRandom Initial r, YReset to BaseNo Feedback b/c LY = 0Y (trillion $)ISLMIS241717000.0280.0280.096100%ZoomerClear Money MarketClear Goods MarketYeThe IS Curve

ISLM

Y (income in trillion $)interest rateISLMLMIS

MankiwA Standard Derivation of the IS and LM CurvesMankiw, Macroeconomics, p. 299:Mankiw, Macroeconomics, p. 305:

Live!#REF!Y (income in trillion $)trillion $Goods MarketPEtrillion $interest rateMoney MarketMs/PLtrillion $interest rateInvestmentIInitialScenario Comp StaticsMake BaseZoom InZoom OutDefault AxesCenter Current Y (B19)Zoom InZoom OutDefault AxesCenter Current r (B18)Clear Goods MarketClear Money MarketAsset Market EquilibrationPlay SpeedPause Hide ISLMReplayRandom ParametersRandom Initial r, YZoomer45oFit to ScreenReset to BaseShow StabilityShow ISLMCSShow ISLMADShow MathShow Shifting

S3AYearinv_interceptrYCI13.89950404650.030663360318.331680155112.96534412412.36633603123.84399896680.030293326418.691063119513.20185049562.399212623934.181474440.032543162920.44522077814.55264662242.709874155644.2100795940.03273386421.162769481715.07257968542.812008796354.28190825630.033212721722.067131873615.74034052192.950264921764.09430532440.031962035522.004201778915.63259549682.893784059274.28675296530.033245019823.430302991116.71435348883.133792612783.95373868610.031024924622.767993551316.12360926982.954762685293.97093354340.03113955723.52363979416.66540269683.057926853103.78115141140.029874342723.40394019916.50503774672.9845829008114.35694422310.033712961526.685449707619.06370192123.5899986484123.64865898980.028991059924.217905165417.02112655213.0440770011134.41181293450.034078752928.571359136820.43329380183.8607826745144.2899234720.033266156528.831837294120.56896252243.8572736313153.86128407340.030408560527.535607246619.4570832653.540754807164.07215808430.031814387229.456791590420.91688866413.8660006765173.8479602670.030319735129.141256401320.58500417463.7421329094184.33772266650.033584817832.713836168123.36122795964.3940653117193.99815307990.031321020531.768269617122.52047948954.1404909438204.23100539780.032873369334.082344201924.28491507134.5369109714214.35214739030.033680982635.834134240225.59691829324.818882243223.65209932190.029013995532.568172862122.89203751784.0952516292233.73399308580.029559953934.068274448423.99724376364.3227204582244.46221144190.034414742939.880995764528.54969954275.4105366884253.95709340680.031047289437.654755754626.66805462274.8883188125264.02835833780.031522388939.281774893227.86599743425.1344436701274.08096286820.031873085840.838383042329.0045012795.3641079607284.46269121120.034417941444.889964438432.13578024126.0903171804294.38665928410.033911061945.656811537432.63597218126.157056329303.97592324560.031172821643.80009461631.03391433265.6964837654313.55803807970.028386920541.733040852929.26008648135.191166958323.82884784950.03019231945.241852687731.94334556315.7982660886334.16875466430.032458364449.516735526435.23574773646.5557395229344.37227665920.033815177752.801599454337.73230965827.112284081354.43566176850.034237745154.962854490639.32604459017.441094014363.77385806820.029825720550.404324843935.53989370276.4228437781374.38287093470.033885806257.800083897741.31299396057.7922549531384.4634926270.034423284260.336333169943.19418118368.1864719528393.69493711490.029299580854.269283862938.18829517746.856638251403.96273770670.03108491858.724468045741.59562856637.6277585319414.3943571430.03396238165.179398463646.59805452458.7952305631424.48546386550.034569759168.155145014848.81228783819.2631603995433.74446385650.02962975961.65188040443.43832130427.8314714192443.8194678830.030129785964.392613851245.45441257148.2446509688453.87486224320.030499081667.002318099247.36038561458.6275756644464.39015207170.033934347175.507780550753.977511509710.185481516474.29455697430.033297046576.531857022854.603911299510.2428145726483.96416824680.03109445574.409529755952.70740225649.6664424142493.9467490070.030978326776.40188002754.09667582699.9084485624504.43821134860.034254742385.666508328461.297633622111.6002163994514.44180082240.034278672188.288956630563.178525072611.9587135018524.07256582180.031817105585.380117703760.627874724211.2059733817534.26417358270.033094490690.912007343164.823099852612.1362498048544.38582587690.033905505895.581916454868.321831961312.8888470772554.28421813480.033228120996.778222998569.034566160212.9412822996564.16585880130.032439058797.676503955769.501550558712.928507622573.69403717950.029293581292.374120346765.000454093411.6698271051584.43939083410.0342626056108.540967642477.666966664414.6990466553594.08577002280.0319051335105.251202800574.760180567413.8308192808604.18411035550.0325607357110.283762216378.503004649814.6207485255613.87072823730.0304715216107.437864881475.934566628213.828488941623.89530283060.0306353522111.158091703478.610276327614.3427617844633.77471496740.0298314331111.980425824578.958657713314.2705629119643.95037041460.0310024694119.109354014984.343029777315.4525828824654.05883999950.0317256125.080192539488.791366993916.3956719497664.25388237560.0330258825133.27305185395.007470833617.7756328156674.21035889390.032735726136.250634850297.041208111918.1047800884684.2584129520.0330560863141.4988081555100.880967763118.880054343693.708963580.0293930905132.074742089192.972172547116.7126499111703.88057647970.0305371765140.434396576999.279267503618.0935118535714.45810542710.0343873695159.8899996546114.45170247321.6848314452723.91421986830.0307614658149.9014307605106.057038440319.3783226118733.65317952430.0290211968147.0893290276103.391433868918.497843359743.63953588650.0289302392151.1085255772106.17839022818.9740819955754.33944050310.03359627176.4326306965125.996421416423.7014743258764.28971314310.0332647543180.2041304819128.559130750524.1082227284773.91661582960.0307774389173.852349453123.009580718422.4798884216783.93147327850.0308764885179.5501888766127.085683291923.2507388623794.09905753840.0319937169190.53962843135.380600900325.0688478056804.0084085830.0313893906193.1341809948136.944709896925.1965859821813.80276431990.0300184288191.634079435135.21774960224.4936581636824.21362759420.0327575173212.3934673832151.282574542228.2305410216834.41284789690.0340856526226.2618787962161.818337691730.5767787305844.15106522970.0323404349222.9033981305158.555818198829.4648146865853.72068960090.029471264212.4093080862149.567539154226.9125207295864.06323072860.0317548715232.8665457226165.322532043930.5368880301873.87833568910.0305222379232.0217565623164.017579579629.8868375646883.72058620790.0294705747232.1008756674163.432880093629.4071359732894.33726081030.0335817387266.7722466429190.502542260835.8310189935903.84528593440.0303019062252.0069009962178.002808091832.3522469541913.65496235560.0290330824250.4947210955176.084982790131.5083369766924.39880089450.033992006294.5307484494210.584480850639.7578242301933.61059638860.0287373093263.5062085977185.01364543232.978466496944.18221112040.0325480741301.1858659733214.383631689139.9227147144953.87659330340.030510622293.8247387017207.697778039137.8410555057963.59088393630.0286058929286.851028124201.297949189335.8185966231973.80887446480.0300591631307.8642205966217.263016968139.3746868476983.93944232590.0309296155324.7548059169229.90463443942.0868591935994.4617390130.0344115934366.0361682046262.032747960449.65720859131004.34426475850.0336284317369.7107986748264.048566738449.6856339339

S3A

YCI

ISLMCSChange Exogenous Variable cells to see how Ye, re (C and I) and change, with shifts (initial and new) displayed.Exogenous VariablesData for graphs can be seen by scrolling down.cons_intercept0.3trillion $C0cons_slope0.8C1, MPC (marginal propensity to consume)inv_intercept3.5trillion $I0r elasticity of IINITIALMust click the Initial button to have the reduced-form solution in cells B18, B19 for the cells below to work.inv_slope-50I1-0.9811Zoom Amountre2.800%gov4trillion $G, government spending2Ye17trillion $tax_tran2.5trillion $T, taxes - transfersGov Budget (+/-)-1.5trillion $+ surplus; - deficitNEWL_intercept2trillion $L0re3.467%L_Y_slope0.2LYr elasticity of LYe20.3333333333trillion $L_r_slope-100Lr-1.33M/P2.6trillion $real money supplyShockDG1.0Drge0.667%DYge3.3333333333Endogenous Variablesr3.467%real interest rateMultiplier3.3333333333Y20.3333333333trillion $Output/IncomeDesired DYe3C14.5666666667trillion $ConsumptionNeeded Shock0.9I1.7666666667trillion $InvestmentL2.6Money demandEquilibrium Condition: Y = C + I + GEquilibrium Condition: L = M/PY (output/income)20.3333333333trillion $C+I+G20.3333333333trillion $Difference (Y - (C+I+G))0trillion $M/P2.6trillion $L2.6trillion $Difference (M/P - L)0trillion $Total Difference0Zoom Amount2%Data for INITIALLive data for NEWIS CurveMake Base button puts exo var values from column B above here:Ye=f(r|exo vars)rYerYeINITIAL (column C) is using these parameter values; this makes it easy to change parameters and create new problems0.0%240.00%29Exogenous Variables2.8%172.80%22cons_intercept0.3trillion $C09.6%09.60%5cons_slope0.8C1, MPC (marginal propensity to consume)inv_intercept3.5trillion $I0LM Curveinv_slope-50I1re=f(Y|exo vars)YreYreGov spending3trillion $government spending244.2%244.2%taxes - transfers2.5trillion $taxes - transfers172.8%172.8%Gov Budget (+/-)-0.5trillion $+ surplus; - deficit0-0.6%0-0.6%L_intercept2trillion $L0L_Y_slope0.2LYL_r_slope-100LrKeynesian CrossM/P2.6trillion $real money supplyYPEYPEComputing Ye, re:2422.62423.2666666667Ye1717171717.6666666667re2.80%03.404.0666666667Computing intercept adjustment for changing elasticity of L:-0.8Computing intercept adjustment for changing elasticity of I:Money Market2.1MreMsMreMs5.40.0%2.66.06666666670.0%2.62.62.8%2.63.26666666672.8%2.6-4.29.6%2.6-3.53333333339.6%2.6Investment DemandrIrI0.000%3.50.0%3.52.800%2.12.8%2.19.600%-1.39.6%-1.3

GDPCADPCERX1A020NBEAGPDICASource: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis/FREDUS Real Y, C, and IYCI1059410594105941095910959109591132411324113241168911689116891205512055120551242012420124201278512785127851315013150131501351613516135161388113881138811424614246142461461114611146111497714977149771534215342153421570715707157071607216072160721643816438164381680316803168031716817168171681753317533175331789917899178991826418264182641862918629186291899418994189941936019360193601972519725197252009020090200902045520455204552082120821208212118621186211862155121551215512191621916219162228222282222822264722647226472301223012230122337723377233772374323743237432410824108241082447324473244732483824838248382520425204252042556925569255692593425934259342629926299262992666526665266652703027030270302739527395273952776027760277602812628126281262849128491284912885628856288562922129221292212958729587295872995229952299523031730317303173068230682306823104831048310483141331413314133177831778317783214332143321433250932509325093287432874328743323933239332393360433604336043397033970339703433534335343353470034700347003506535065350653543135431354313579635796357963616136161361613652636526365263689236892368923725737257372573762237622376223798737987379873835338353383533871838718387183908339083390833944839448394483981439814398144017940179401794054440544405444090940909409094127541275412751055.6781123.6965.8739.284.2904.1716.154.7787.565220.2777.6637.627.3861.4683.145.2938.2724.678.61059.6798.399.31113.6827.8122.31076.7814.684.21162.6860.2105.61265904.7143.81488.9968.71761770.3945.798207297261.12237.5999.7732215.91061.593.919591193.62251937.61216.4216.520181243.9272.920071278.5210.92181.91360.5293.72357.71381.7294.52453.71425.3270.42568.91493.4285.62554.41524.7274.42736.41637.3337.72794.71685.1336.82853.51726.8324.22832.61741.7300.63028.11840.5358.43105.81891359.73185.11930360.93379.92025.4403.83527.12108.9431.23730.52234.4465.23972.92376.1529.64234.92510.6577.14351.22585.6556.94564.72734.1590.24707.92836.3623.14717.72903.1585.248733013.9645.55128.83198.7718.25418.23357.3796.85390.23329.67445379.53405.2623.55669.33595.1742.55930.63746.6848.46260.43911.3946.66459.24004.2979.86443.43991.6881.26610.64050.8958.76484.34108.4833.76784.74342.6911.57277.24571.61160.37585.748121159.57852.15014.11161.38123.95183.71194.48465.45400.51223.887775558.21273.48945.45672.71240.68938.95685.71158.89256.75896.61243.79510.86101.51343.19894.76338.11502.310163.76527.71550.810549.56755.71686.711022.97010187911513.47384.82058.312071.47788.12231.412565.28182.12375.512684.48387.52231.412909.78600.42218.2132708866.22308.7137749205.62511.314235.69527.82672.614615.29814.9273014876.810035.52644.114833.69999.2239614417.99842.91878.114779.410035.92120.415052.410291.32224.615470.710517.6243615761.310727.92566.4

ISLMCS

YeYeYeY (income in trillion $)interest rateISLMLMIS

MysteryChange Exogenous Variable cells to see how Ye, re (C and I) and change, with shifts (initial and new) displayed.This sheet enables you to play a game where your task is to figure out the parameters of a mystery economy.Hint: Copy and paste values (not simply paste) of the equilibrium outcomes so you can figure out how the policy tools move the economy.Exogenous VariablesData for graphs can be seen by scrolling down.cons_intercept0trillion $C0Initial Policy ToolsEquilibrium Outcomescons_slope0.67C1, MPC (marginal propensity to consume)Must click the Initial button to have the reduced-form solution in cells B18, B19 for the cells below to work.G2.75r10.551%inv_intercept11trillion $I0r elasticity of IINITIALT3.9Y18.4014173754inv_slope-48I1-0.8533Zoom Amountre10.551%Ms1.7C9.7159496415Gov spending2.75trillion $government spending2Ye18.4014173754trillion $I5.9354677339taxes - transfers3.9trillion $taxes - transfersGov Budget (+/-)1.15trillion $+ surplus; - deficitNEWEnter a parameter value in the Your Answer column to see if you got it right. Good luck!L_intercept4trillion $L0re10.551%ParametersYour AnswerResultL_Y_slope0.5LYr elasticity of LYe18.4014173754trillion $cons_intercept0L_r_slope-109Lr-6.77cons_slope0M/P1.7trillion $real money supplyShockinv_intercept0Drge0.000%inv_slope0DYge0L_intercept0Endogenous VariablesL_Y_slope0r10.551%real interest rateMultiplier3.3333333333L_r_slope0Y18.4014173754trillion $Output/IncomeDesired DYe3C9.7159496415trillion $ConsumptionNeeded Shock0.9I5.9354677339trillion $InvestmentL1.7Money demandEquilibrium Condition: Y = C + I + GEquilibrium Condition: L = M/PY (output/income)18.4014173754trillion $C+I+G18.4014173754trillion $Difference (Y - (C+I+G))0trillion $M/P1.7trillion $L1.7trillion $Difference (M/P - L)0trillion $Total Difference0Zoom Amount2%Data for INITIALLive data for NEWIS CurveMake Base button puts exo var values from column B above here:Ye=f(r|exo vars)rYerYeINITIAL (column C) is using these parameter values; this makes it easy to change parameters and create new problems0.0%33.74848484850.00%33.7484848485Exogenous Variables10.6%18.401417375410.55%18.4014173754cons_intercept0trillion $C023.2%023.20%0cons_slope0.67C1, MPC (marginal propensity to consume)inv_intercept11trillion $I0LM Curveinv_slope-48I1re=f(Y|exo vars)YreYreGov spending2.75trillion $government spending33.748484848517.6%33.748484848517.6%taxes - transfers3.9trillion $taxes - transfers18.401417375410.6%18.401417375410.6%Gov Budget (+/-)1.15trillion $+ surplus; - deficit02.1%02.1%L_intercept4trillion $L0L_Y_slope0.5LYL_r_slope-109LrKeynesian CrossM/P1.7trillion $real money supplyYPEYPEComputing Ye, re:33.748484848528.683952582433.748484848528.6839525824Ye18.401417375418.401417375418.401417375418.401417375418.4014173754re10.55%06.072467733906.0724677339Computing intercept adjustment for changing elasticity of L:-7.5007086877Computing intercept adjustment for changing elasticity of I:Money Market5.9354677339MreMsMreMs13.20070868770.0%1.713.20070868770.0%1.71.710.6%1.71.710.6%1.7-12.089562145723.2%1.7-12.089562145723.2%1.7Investment DemandrIrI0.000%110.0%1110.551%5.935467733910.6%5.935467733923.202%-0.13723.2%-0.137

PEPEY (income in trillion $)trillion $Goods MarketPEtrillion $interest rateMoney MarketLMs/Ptrillion $interest rateInvestmentIInitialScenario Comp StaticsMake BaseZoom InZoom OutDefault AxesCenter Current Y (B19)Zoom InZoom OutDefault AxesCenter Current r (B18)Random ParametersRandom Initial r, YHide ISLMReset to BaseFit to ScreenZoomerZoomer45oHide ISLMCSShow ISLMADShow MathShow ShiftingTrack EqShow DataGDPCADPCERX1A020NBEAGPDICASource: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis/FREDUS Real Y, C, and IYCI1059410594105941095910959109591132411324113241168911689116891205512055120551242012420124201278512785127851315013150131501351613516135161388113881138811424614246142461461114611146111497714977149771534215342153421570715707157071607216072160721643816438164381680316803168031716817168171681753317533175331789917899178991826418264182641862918629186291899418994189941936019360193601972519725197252009020090200902045520455204552082120821208212118621186211862155121551215512191621916219162228222282222822264722647226472301223012230122337723377233772374323743237432410824108241082447324473244732483824838248382520425204252042556925569255692593425934259342629926299262992666526665266652703027030270302739527395273952776027760277602812628126281262849128491284912885628856288562922129221292212958729587295872995229952299523031730317303173068230682306823104831048310483141331413314133177831778317783214332143321433250932509325093287432874328743323933239332393360433604336043397033970339703433534335343353470034700347003506535065350653543135431354313579635796357963616136161361613652636526365263689236892368923725737257372573762237622376223798737987379873835338353383533871838718387183908339083390833944839448394483981439814398144017940179401794054440544405444090940909409094127541275412751055.6781123.6965.8739.284.2904.1716.154.7787.565220.2777.6637.627.3861.4683.145.2938.2724.678.61059.6798.399.31113.6827.8122.31076.7814.684.21162.6860.2105.61265904.7143.81488.9968.71761770.3945.798207297261.12237.5999.7732215.91061.593.919591193.62251937.61216.4216.520181243.9272.920071278.5210.92181.91360.5293.72357.71381.7294.52453.71425.3270.42568.91493.4285.62554.41524.7274.42736.41637.3337.72794.71685.1336.82853.51726.8324.22832.61741.7300.63028.11840.5358.43105.81891359.73185.11930360.93379.92025.4403.83527.12108.9431.23730.52234.4465.23972.92376.1529.64234.92510.6577.14351.22585.6556.94564.72734.1590.24707.92836.3623.14717.72903.1585.248733013.9645.55128.83198.7718.25418.23357.3796.85390.23329.67445379.53405.2623.55669.33595.1742.55930.63746.6848.46260.43911.3946.66459.24004.2979.86443.43991.6881.26610.64050.8958.76484.34108.4833.76784.74342.6911.57277.24571.61160.37585.748121159.57852.15014.11161.38123.95183.71194.48465.45400.51223.887775558.21273.48945.45672.71240.68938.95685.71158.89256.75896.61243.79510.86101.51343.19894.76338.11502.310163.76527.71550.810549.56755.71686.711022.97010187911513.47384.82058.312071.47788.12231.412565.28182.12375.512684.48387.52231.412909.78600.42218.2132708866.22308.7137749205.62511.314235.69527.82672.614615.29814.9273014876.810035.52644.114833.69999.2239614417.99842.91878.114779.410035.92120.415052.410291.32224.615470.710517.6243615761.310727.92566.4

Mystery

YeYeYeY (income in trillion $)interest rateISLM

USDataGDPCADPCERX1A020NBEAGPDICAlinBillions of Chained 2009 DollarslinBillions of Chained 2009 DollarslinBillions of Chained 2009 DollarsAAnnualAAnnualAAnnual01/01/19001929-01-01 to 2013-01-0101/01/19291929-01-01 to 2013-01-0101/01/19291929-01-01 to 2013-01-01Real Gross Domestic ProductReal personal consumption expendituresReal Gross Private Domestic InvestmentU.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic AnalysisU.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic AnalysisU.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysisdatevaluedatevaluedatevalue01/01/19291055.601/01/1929781.001/01/1929123.601/01/1930965.801/01/1930739.201/01/193084.201/01/1931904.101/01/1931716.101/01/193154.701/01/1932787.501/01/1932652.001/01/193220.201/01/1933777.601/01/1933637.601/01/193327.301/01/1934861.401/01/1934683.101/01/193445.201/01/1935938.201/01/1935724.601/01/193578.601/01/19361059.601/01/1936798.301/01/193699.301/01/19371113.601/01/1937827.801/01/1937122.301/01/19381076.701/01/1938814.601/01/193884.201/01/19391162.601/01/1939860.201/01/1939105.601/01/19401265.001/01/1940904.701/01/1940143.801/01/19411488.901/01/1941968.701/01/1941176.001/01/19421770.301/01/1942945.701/01/194298.001/01/19432072.001/01/1943972.001/01/194361.101/01/19442237.501/01/1944999.701/01/194473.001/01/19452215.901/01/19451061.501/01/194593.901/01/19461959.001/01/19461193.601/01/1946225.001/01/19471937.601/01/19471216.401/01/1947216.501/01/19482018.001/01/19481243.901/01/1948272.901/01/19492007.001/01/19491278.501/01/1949210.901/01/19502181.901/01/19501360.501/01/1950293.701/01/19512357.701/01/19511381.701/01/1951294.501/01/19522453.701/01/19521425.301/01/1952270.401/01/19532568.901/01/19531493.401/01/1953285.601/01/19542554.401/01/19541524.701/01/1954274.401/01/19552736.401/01/19551637.301/01/1955337.701/01/19562794.701/01/19561685.101/01/1956336.801/01/19572853.501/01/19571726.801/01/1957324.201/01/19582832.601/01/19581741.701/01/1958300.601/01/19593028.101/01/19591840.501/01/1959358.401/01/19603105.801/01/19601891.001/01/1960359.701/01/19613185.101/01/19611930.001/01/1961360.901/01/19623379.901/01/19622025.401/01/1962403.801/01/19633527.101/01/19632108.901/01/1963431.201/01/19643730.501/01/19642234.401/01/1964465.201/01/19653972.901/01/19652376.101/01/1965529.601/01/19664234.901/01/19662510.601/01/1966577.101/01/19674351.201/01/19672585.601/01/1967556.901/01/19684564.701/01/19682734.101/01/1968590.201/01/19694707.901/01/19692836.301/01/1969623.101/01/19704717.701/01/19702903.101/01/1970585.201/01/19714873.001/01/19713013.901/01/1971645.501/01/19725128.801/01/19723198.701/01/1972718.201/01/19735418.201/01/19733357.301/01/1973796.801/01/19745390.201/01/19743329.601/01/1974744.001/01/19755379.501/01/19753405.201/01/1975623.501/01/19765669.301/01/19763595.101/01/1976742.501/01/19775930.601/01/19773746.601/01/1977848.401/01/19786260.401/01/19783911.301/01/1978946.601/01/19796459.201/01/19794004.201/01/1979979.801/01/19806443.401/01/19803991.601/01/1980881.201/01/19816610.601/01/19814050.801/01/1981958.701/01/19826484.301/01/19824108.401/01/1982833.701/01/19836784.701/01/19834342.601/01/1983911.501/01/19847277.201/01/19844571.601/01/19841160.301/01/19857585.701/01/19854812.001/01/19851159.501/01/19867852.101/01/19865014.101/01/19861161.301/01/19878123.901/01/19875183.701/01/19871194.401/01/19888465.401/01/19885400.501/01/19881223.801/01/19898777.001/01/19895558.201/01/19891273.401/01/19908945.401/01/19905672.701/01/19901240.601/01/19918938.901/01/19915685.701/01/19911158.801/01/19929256.701/01/19925896.601/01/19921243.701/01/19939510.801/01/19936101.501/01/19931343.101/01/19949894.701/01/19946338.101/01/19941502.301/01/199510163.701/01/19956527.701/01/19951550.801/01/199610549.501/01/19966755.701/01/19961686.701/01/199711022.901/01/19977010.001/01/19971879.001/01/199811513.401/01/19987384.801/01/19982058.301/01/199912071.401/01/19997788.101/01/19992231.401/01/200012565.201/01/20008182.101/01/20002375.501/01/200112684.401/01/20018387.501/01/20012231.401/01/200212909.701/01/20028600.401/01/20022218.201/01/200313270.001/01/20038866.201/01/20032308.701/01/200413774.001/01/20049205.601/01/20042511.301/01/200514235.601/01/20059527.801/01/20052672.601/01/200614615.201/01/20069814.901/01/20062730.001/01/200714876.801/01/200710035.501/01/20072644.101/01/200814833.601/01/20089999.201/01/20082396.001/01/200914417.901/01/20099842.901/01/20091878.101/01/201014779.401/01/201010035.901/01/20102120.401/01/201115052.401/01/201110291.301/01/20112224.601/01/201215470.701/01/201210517.601/01/20122436.001/01/201315761.301/01/201310727.901/01/20132566.4

PEPEY (income in trillion $)trillion $Goods Markettrillion $interest rateMoney Markettrillion $interest rateInvestmentInitialScenario Comp StaticsMake BaseZoom InZoom OutDefault AxesCenter Current Y (B19)Zoom InZoom OutDefault AxesCenter Current r (B18)Random ParametersRandom Initial r, YHide ISLMReset to BaseFit to ScreenZoomerZoomer45oHide ISLMCSHide ISLMADShow MathShow ShiftingTrack EqShow DataGDPCADPCERX1A020NBEAGPDICASource: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis/FREDUS Real Y, C, and IYCI1059410594105941095910959109591132411324113241168911689116891205512055120551242012420124201278512785127851315013150131501351613516135161388113881138811424614246142461461114611146111497714977149771534215342153421570715707157071607216072160721643816438164381680316803168031716817168171681753317533175331789917899178991826418264182641862918629186291899418994189941936019360193601972519725197252009020090200902045520455204552082120821208212118621186211862155121551215512191621916219162228222282222822264722647226472301223012230122337723377233772374323743237432410824108241082447324473244732483824838248382520425204252042556925569255692593425934259342629926299262992666526665266652703027030270302739527395273952776027760277602812628126281262849128491284912885628856288562922129221292212958729587295872995229952299523031730317303173068230682306823104831048310483141331413314133177831778317783214332143321433250932509325093287432874328743323933239332393360433604336043397033970339703433534335343353470034700347003506535065350653543135431354313579635796357963616136161361613652636526365263689236892368923725737257372573762237622376223798737987379873835338353383533871838718387183908339083390833944839448394483981439814398144017940179401794054440544405444090940909409094127541275412751055.6781123.6965.8739.284.2904.1716.154.7787.565220.2777.6637.627.3861.4683.145.2938.2724.678.61059.6798.399.31113.6827.8122.31076.7814.684.21162.6860.2105.61265904.7143.81488.9968.71761770.3945.798207297261.12237.5999.7732215.91061.593.919591193.62251937.61216.4216.520181243.9272.920071278.5210.92181.91360.5293.72357.71381.7294.52453.71425.3270.42568.91493.4285.62554.41524.7274.42736.41637.3337.72794.71685.1336.82853.51726.8324.22832.61741.7300.63028.11840.5358.43105.81891359.73185.11930360.93379.92025.4403.83527.12108.9431.23730.52234.4465.23972.92376.1529.64234.92510.6577.14351.22585.6556.94564.72734.1590.24707.92836.3623.14717.72903.1585.248733013.9645.55128.83198.7718.25418.23357.3796.85390.23329.67445379.53405.2623.55669.33595.1742.55930.63746.6848.46260.43911.3946.66459.24004.2979.86443.43991.6881.26610.64050.8958.76484.34108.4833.76784.74342.6911.57277.24571.61160.37585.748121159.57852.15014.11161.38123.95183.71194.48465.45400.51223.887775558.21273.48945.45672.71240.68938.95685.71158.89256.75896.61243.79510.86101.51343.19894.76338.11502.310163.76527.71550.810549.56755.71686.711022.97010187911513.47384.82058.312071.47788.12231.412565.28182.12375.512684.48387.52231.412909.78600.42218.2132708866.22308.7137749205.62511.314235.69527.82672.614615.29814.9273014876.810035.52644.114833.69999.2239614417.99842.91878.114779.410035.92120.415052.410291.32224.615470.710517.6243615761.310727.92566.4Reset to Initial Policy ToolsSet GSet TSet Ms

USData

GDPCADPCERX1A020NBEAGPDICASource: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis/FREDUS Real Y, C, and IYCI

ISLMADUse this sheet to derive Aggregate Demand (AD) in Y-P space.Exogenous VariablesData for graphs can be seen by scrolling down.cons_intercept0.3trillion $C0cons_slope0.8C1, MPC (marginal propensity to consume)Must click the Initial button to have the reduced-form solution in cells B18, B19 for the cells below to work.inv_intercept3.5trillion $I0r elasticity of IINITIALinv_slope-50I1-0.6667Zoom Amountre2.800%gov3trillion $G, government spending2Ye17trillion $tax_tran2.5trillion $T, taxes - transfersGov Budget (+/-)-0.5trillion $+ surplus; - deficitNEWL_intercept2trillion $L0re2.800%L_Y_slope0.2LYr elasticity of LYe17trillion $L_r_slope-100Lr-1.08M2.6trillion $real money supplyShockP1.00Index unitsprice levelDrge0.000%2.6DYge0Endogenous Variablesr2.800%real interest rateY17trillion $Output/IncomeC11.9trillion $ConsumptionI2.1trillion $InvestmentL2.6Money demandEquilibrium Condition: Y = C + I + GEquilibrium Condition: L = M/PY (output/income)17trillion $C+I+G17trillion $Difference (Y - (C+I+G))0trillion $M/P2.6trillion $L2.6trillion $Difference (M/P - L)0trillion $Total Difference0Zoom Amount2%Data for INITIALLive data for NEWIS CurveMake Base button puts exo var values from column B above here:Ye=f(r|exo vars)rYerYeINITIAL (column C) is using these parameter values; this makes it easy to change parameters and create new problems0.0%240.00%24Exogenous Variables2.8%172.80%17cons_intercept0.3trillion $C09.6%09.60%0cons_slope0.8C1, MPC (marginal propensity to consume)inv_intercept3.5trillion $I0LM Curveinv_slope-50I1re=f(Y|exo vars)YreYregov3trillion $G, government spending244.2%244.2%tax_tran2.5trillion $T, taxes - transfers172.8%172.8%Gov Budget (+/-)-0.5trillion $+ surplus; - deficit0-0.6%0-0.6%L_intercept2trillion $L0L_Y_slope0.2LYL_r_slope-100LrKeynesian CrossM2.6trillion $real money supplyYPEYPEP1Index unitsprice level2422.62422.6Ye1717171717re2.80%03.403.4Computing intercept adjustment for changing elasticity of L:-0.8Computing intercept adjustment for changing elasticity of I:Money Market2.1MreMsMreMs5.40.0%2.65.40.0%2.62.62.8%2.62.62.8%2.6-4.29.6%2.6-4.29.6%2.6Investment DemandrIrI0.000%3.50.0%3.52.800%2.12.8%2.19.600%-1.39.6%-1.3ADPYPY0.521.33333333330.521.33333333330.619.88888888890.619.88888888890.718.85714285710.718.85714285710.818.08333333330.818.08333333330.917.48148148150.917.48148148151171171.116.60606060611.116.60606060611.216.27777777781.216.27777777781.3161.3161.415.76190476191.415.76190476191.515.55555555561.515.5555555556

ISLMAD

YeYeYeY (income in trillion $)interest rateISLMLMIS

FinalThis sheet summarizes important lessons from this workbook and points to the next step in the study of our Keynesian Model.The goods market, depicted in Keynesian cross diagram, is the basic building block.It shows that equilibrium output and income, Y, the most important variable in macroeconomics, is determined by the sum ofplanned expenditures by consumers, firms, and governments:Y = C(Y, T) + I(r) + GThe ISLM Model essentially endogenizes r, making equilibrium r a function of Y.This gives us a two-variable model, Y and r, that are functions of a bunch of exogenous variables.The interaction of the variables is captured by this loop:In equilibrium, the level of Y yields a money demand that produces an r that gives an I so that C + I + G determines the same level of Ythat we started with.The IS and LM curves make finding the equilibrium solution easy.The IS curve gives the equilibrium Y for any given r.The LM curve gives the equilibrium r for any given Y.The curves are magnets that attract points in a left/right fashion for IS and up/down for LM.The intersection of the IS and LM curves gives the equilibrium pair of Y and r.The shapes of the IS and LM curves, flat or steep, depend upon underlying functions like investment and money demand.The amount of shifting is also dependent upon parameter values.Many macroeconomists accept, in broad terms, a model like the one implemented here, but disagree over parameter valuesand shapes of curves.The ISLM Model is used for understanding how shocks affect the economy.In essence, a constant stream of shocks push the economy around and this explains why we see fluctuations.We can get shocks from anywhere, but volatility in investment is a prime source of cyclical movement in economic performance.The model is also used for policy analysis. It shows how the fiscal policy tools (G and T) and monetary policy (Ms) affects Y.So, if Y is too low (and, thus, unemployment too high), the economy can be steered to its full-employment position.In the United States, the Fed controls monetary policy and it infuences the economy via the interest rate's effect on investment.The IS shifts left/right as G and T are manipulated while the LM curve shifts up/down as the money supply is changed.The three policy tools all have multpliers and these can be used to compute the size of an appopriate policy move.Of course, this is all in theory and actual practice is way more complicated. Not only don't we know parameter values,we don't know how long a particular policy move will take.Policy is as much art as science.The multipliers in the ISLM model are less powerful than in the original, basic Keynesian cross model.Any increase in Y will produce an increase in interest rates that feedback and lower Y.This is a general property of modeling: as we expand the model, adding feedback mechanisms, the multpliers get smaller.When G, T, or Ms are used to stimulate the economy, part of the change in Y will be crowded out by a higher interest rate.There are many other flavors of the ISLM Model. For example, instead of T as a single number, taxes can be a function of income, like this: T = tY.Or, additional channels can be inserted into C via r and P (since it makes sense that consumer spending depends on interest rates and prices).In fact, the implementation in this Excel workbook is about as simple an ISLM Model as you can find.The ISLM Model is a traditional, canonical model in macroeconomics, but it has a severe limitation in that it says nothing about prices.In fact, the price level is assumed constant.By changing P, we can track equilibrium Y and derive an AD curve in Y-P space.This leaves us poised to make the leap to the next level: a model that endogenizes P and has three equilibrium variables: Y, r, and P.This is the topic of the next and final workbook, ISLMADAS.xls.

PEPEY (income in trillion $)trillion $Goods MarketPEtrillion $interest rateMoney MarketLMs/Ptrillion $interest rateInvestmentIInitialScenario Comp StaticsMake BaseZoom InZoom OutDefault AxesCenter Current Y (B19)Zoom InZoom OutDefault AxesCenter Current r (B18)Random ParametersRandom Initial r, YHide ISLMReset to BaseFit to ScreenZoomerZoomer45oY (income in trillion $)P (Price level in index units)Aggregate DemandADHide ISLMCSHide ISLMADShow MathShow ShiftingTrack EqYMdrI

MathThe algebra of the ISLM Model can seem daunting, but it's really straightforward, although quite tedious.It's a system of equations where two equilibrium conditions must be satisfied.We want to find the values of Y and r, the endogenous variables, that force the two equilibrium conditions to hold.This sheet demonstrates this for the general case (all variables as letters), followed by a concrete example,and then compares the general and concrete solutions. They are, unsurprisingly, exactly the same.This sheet ends with a linear algebra presentation of the model and its solution.This exposition is more advanced than usual, but it is good to know that Excel can do rudimentary matrix operations.THE GENERAL CASEStructural EquationsC = C0 + C1(Y-T)I = I0 + I1rG = GT = TL = L0 + L1r + LYYMs = Ms/PEquilibrium ConditionsY = C + I + GL = MsSolving the ModelStep 1: Solve for goods and money market separatelyGoods (IS)Money (LM)Ye = C0 + C1(Ye - T) + I0 + I1r + GMs/P = L0 + Lrre + LYY(1 - C1)Ye = C0 - C1T + I0 + I1r + GMs/P - L0 - LYY= LrreYe = (C0 - C1T + I0 + I1r + G)/(1-C1)re = (Ms/P - L0)/Lr - (LY/Lr)YYe = (C0 + I0)/(1-C1) - (C1/(1-C1))T + (I1/(1-C1))r + (1/(1-C1))GStep 2: Substitute re into Ye and solve for Yge:Yge = (C0 + I0)/(1-C1) - (C1/(1-C1))T + (I1/(1-C1))[(Ms/P - L0- LYYge)/Lr] + (1/(1-C1))GThis is tedious work and you have to be extremely careful. The crucial step is moving the Yge terms to the same side.Yge + ((I1/(1-C1))LYYge)/Lr = (C0 + I0)/(1-C1) - (C1/(1-C1))T + (I1/(1-C1))[(Ms/P - L0)/Lr] + (1/(1-C1))GFactor out Yge:Yge[1 + ((I1/(1-C1))LY)/Lr] = (C0 + I0)/(1-C1) - (C1/(1-C1))T + (I1/(1-C1))[(Ms/P - L0)/Lr] + (1/(1-C1))GDivide both sides by the bracketed term:Yge = z(C0 + I0)/(1-C1) - z(C1/(1-C1))T + z(I1/(1-C1))[(Ms/P - L0)/Lr] + z(1/(1-C1))GMultipliers with No Feedback (LY = 0 --> z = 1)where z = 1/(1+(I1*Lr/((1-C1))*LY))G1/(1-C1)3.4482758621T- C1/(1-C1)-2.4482758621Step 3: Substitute Yge back into the LM curve to get rge.Ms(I1/(1-C1))/Lr1.3729246488Notice that this is I1/Lr times the G Multiplierrge = (Ms/P - L0 - LY[Yge])/LrCONCRETE EXAMPLEChange the parameters and the IS and LM intercept and slopes are calculated in boxed cells below.Structural EquationsC00consumption function interceptC = 0 + 0.8(Y-T)C10.8consumption function slope (MPC)I = 9 - 75rI09investment function interceptG = 1.5I1-75investment function slopeT = 1.6G1.5government spendingL = 10 - 100r + 0.2YT1.6taxes - transfersMs = Ms/P = 1.50.1+ surplus; - deficitL010liquidity preference (money demand) interceptEquilibrium ConditionsLY0.2liquidity preference (money demand) Y slopeY = C + I + GLr-100liquidity preference (money demand) r slopeL = MsMs/P1.5real money balances (money supply)ISYe = (C0 + I0)/(1-C1) - (C1/(1-C1))T + (I1/(1-C1))r + (1/(1-C1))GYe = 0 + 0.8(Ye - 1.6) + 9 - 75r + 1.5IS intercept46.1IS intercept includes all terms except r0.2Ye = - 0.8*1.6 + 9 - 75r + 1.5IS slope-375IS slope is the coefficient on r0.2Ye = 9.22 - 75rYe = 46.1 - 375rLMre = (Ms/P - L0)/Lr - (LY/Lr)Y1.5 = 10 - 100re + 0.2YLM intercept8.50%-8.5 - 0.2Y = -100reLM slope0.002re = 8.5% + 0.002YNow we solve for Yge and rgeSubstitute re into Ye:a - b(c + d) is expanded to a - bc and -bd in the two cells below:Yge = 46.1 - 375[8.5% + 0.002Ye]14.225-0.75Yge + 0.75Ye = 31.875Below is YgeYge = 14.225/76 = 8.12858.1285714286For the initial parameters on this sheet, that's 8 and 9/70ths for the fanatical.Then substitute Yge back into the LM curve to get rge.Look:0.1285714286rge = 8.5% + 0.002(8.1285)Below is rgerge = 10.126%10.125714286%As you can readily see, the concrete solution for the initial parameters on this sheet (in cells A72 and A75) agree with the general solution (cells D72 and D75).CREATING NEW PROBLEMSObviously, once you have derived the general solution, simply plugging in the parameter values gives the solution for that set of exogenous values.This means you have as many concrete examples as there are parameter combinations.You can practice with differing values for the parameters and see how the ISLM curves look.Excel is well suited for this since it's easy to build formulas that depend on other cells.The sheets in this workbook take advantage of Excel's power by simply entering formulas for the solution and letting Excel compute the answers.LINEAR ALGEBRAOnce the structural equations are substituted into the equilibrium conditions, we are left with the followingtwo equations in two unknowns (the rest of the variables are exogenous):(1-C1)Y - I1r = C0 + C1T + I0 + GNotice how the equations are organized as aY + br = constant.LYY + Lrr = Ms/P - L0This system can be written in matrix form like this1 - C1-I1YC0 - C1T + I0 + GLYLrrMs/P - L0We have Ax = b and we find x easily by pre-multiplying both sides by the inverse of A:The cells below have the actual values of the exogenous variables of the A matrix and b vector:0.2759.220.2-100-8.5To do this in Excel, we need to know that Excel's matrix functions are array formulas. They are entered by selecting an appropriate range of cellsand using the keyboard combination Ctrl - Shift - Enter. If you click in a cell that has an array function, press the Esc key to get out.Search Excel's Help for "array formula" to learn more about this advanced functionality.Inverse of A (using Excel's MINVERSE matrix function)2.85714285712.14285714290.0057142857-0.0057142857Pre-multiplying both sides by A-1 to find Ye and re:8.1285714286Yge10.1257%rgeThat is a lot easier than tedious algebra above.This shows the power of linear algebra.

Cells E57:E58 and E63:E64 provide IS and LM intercepts and slopes. This helps to see how a variety of parameter combinations will appear in the IS/LM graph.Cells E44:E54 can be copied and pasted in any of the sheets. Click the Make Base button after pasting to set these parameters as the base case.=The "ge" notation, for general equilibrium, conveys the true equilibrium solution to the model.

ShiftingThis sheet explains why and how lines and curves shift on a graph.Economists shift curves all the time. Demand curves shift, supply curves shift, cost curves shift, and soon you'll be shifting IS and LM curves.Unfortunately, we rarely explain carefully why curves shift and how they shift. In fact, we are sometimes so sloppy that we draw diagonal arrows to indicate shifting "out" or "in."Most of the time this carelessness does not hurt us, but in the case of the ISLM Model, it really does matter and we have to get it exactly right to truly understand the model.The two kinds of shifts are (1) Up/down (or vertical) shifts and (2) right/left (or horizontal) shifts.We will use a simple linear function to explain what's going on when a line shifts on a graph.Suppose we have a multivariate function, say y = 5x1 + 2x2. We can suppress x2 to draw the relationship between in y and x1 in two dimensions.To plot y as a function of x1, the usual strategy is to pick a value of x2 and hold it constant while varying x1 (which is called a movement along the line).You did this in Introductory Economics: changes in price moved you along a demand curve.Unlike changes in x1, which have us slide along the line, if we change x2, the whole y-x1 relationship will shift.This is why your Intro Econ prof told you that changes in income, prices of other goods, and other variables that underlie demand shift the entire demand curve.One of the things that makes graphs hard to read in economics is that we often flip the variables, graphing an x variable on the y axis.When this happens, you have to be really careful and know how to read the graph and shift the function correctly.As an example, click on cells B25:B29 to see the formula that multiplies the x1 value by 5 and adds it to the value of 2*x2.x210Same data,but axes flipped.x1y0201012515230203352544030With the given (x1) variable on the x axis, read the graph vertically.With the given (x1) variable on the y axis, read the graph horizontally.Click the Read Me button above.Click the Read Me button above.Up/down (vertical) shifting.Right/left (horizontal) shifting.Change cell B22 to 10.The intercept increases from 10 to 20.Above, the whole relationship shifts UP.Above, the whole relationship shifts RIGHT.Why up? Because for a given x1, y is now higherWhy right? Because "higher" values are read horizontally and(since y = 5x1 + 2x2 and we changed x2 from 5 to 10).to the right of the line in the graph above.Change cell B22 to 0.The intercept falls to zero.Above, the entire line shifts DOWN.Above, the shift is LEFT.Now, the intercept, 2x2, is smaller (it is now zero)Why left? Because the graph is drawn with the x variable onso the entire line is redrawn.the y axis so you read it from the perspective of the y axis.When you flip the axes, RIGHT is the same as UP and LEFT is the same as DOWN.Practice some more with changing cell B22 and seeing how the two lines shift. Try B22 with 2, 3, 7, and 8.If up/right and left/down are tied together, then why does it matter that we get the shift exactly right?If you shift the line above up or left, it ends up looking basically the same so what's the problem?That works for the example above, but what if the line was really flat or steep?This is important so let's look at two examples.x210x248x1yx1y0502512010150251.012515250251.023020350251.033525450251.044030Up/down (vertical) shifting.Up/down (vertical) shifting.Change cell B62 to 10 and J62 to 48.Both graphs show upward shifts, but the one on the right is worth special attention.If it were perfectly vertical, it would simply end up on top of itself and you would not be able to tell any difference.Similarly, if you shifted a horizontal line left or right, it would have no effect.The key point is this: when dealing with really flat or steep lines or curves, it matters a lot whether you shift up/down or left/right.To do it correctly, you must know which variable is y (the endogenous or dependent variable) and which one is x (the exogenous or independent variable).Knowing which variable is y and which is x will guide you in how to read the graph (vertically or horizontally) and how to shift it (again, vertically or horizontally).You always shift the same way you read so that is a great way to figure out which way to shift.Ask yourself, "Which is the given variable?"If it is on the x axis, then read up from any given x value and also shift up and down.If the given variable is on the y axis, then read right from any given y value and also shift left and right.These ideas really matter for the ISLM Model because the IS curve shifts left and right, while the LM curve shifts up and down.These shifts follow directly from the facts that the IS curve has the given variable (r) on the y axis, while the LM curve has its given variable (Y) on the x axis.Test your understanding of these ideas by answering this question:When income changes, does the demand curve of Introductory Economics, drawn with P on the y axis and Q on the x axis, shift left/right or up/down? Why?Look at the chart below. It plots nominal and real S&P 500 from Jan-1960 to Oct-2013.(Click the Show Data button to see and update the data.)In late 2013, the S&P 500 (and other stock market indexes) repeatedly hit new highs, as shown by the blue series, but this was in nominal terms.Adjusted for inflation, the S&P 500 was still far off its maximum value, reached in Aug-2001 (keep your eye on the red series).The graph is read vertically: at any given month, you read up to find the S&P value for that month. Graphs with data are almost always read vertically from the x axis.The two series are vertically shifted versions of each other, with the added twist that the degree of shift is changing, depending on the CPI index value each month.If the series are flat or gently rising and falling, it is easy to see the vertical shift, as occurs throughout most of the chart.But look at the steep fall just before Apr-2009 (the actual minimum was in March of 2009).The collapse was so severe that the vertical downward shift is hard to see. The S&P lost half of its value in the year and a half from Oct-2007 to Mar-2009.To be clear, it's not because the chart is small. Use Excel's Zoom tool (in the View tab) to magnify the sheet to 400%.The magnification does not help because the nearly vertical movement of the series makes the vertical shift very hard to see.Return the magnification to 100% and click the Zoom In button to set the x axis range from Oct-2007 to Mar-2009.With a more gentle slope, the vertical shift is once again easy to see.Although zooming in on the x axis makes clear the point that vertical shifts are harder to see with steep rather than flat lines,no one would call a 50% decrease over 18 months "gentle."This example was meant to reinforce and repeat the point made earlier that vertical shifts with steep lines are hard to see and interpret.Our eyes look for space in any direction to understand shifts and we end up believing the shift is left or right instead of up and down when dealing with steep lines.The same thing happens with horizontal shifts on flat lines.We forget (or never knew) to carefully read a graph from a vertical or horizontal perspective.And whatever you do, don't draw a diagonal arrow to indicate a diagonal shift! No matter what your textbook shows, this is wrong.Finally, things get even more complicated when we deal with curves instead of lines. We are horrible at interpreting shifts of curves."Thus the elementary task in extracting the curve differences is perceiving length. It turns out that making such length judgments is inaccurate."Cleveland and McGill, "Graphical Perception," (1984, p. 545).Take a moment to look at the nine panels below (which are Figure 26 from the Cleveland and McGill paper on graphical perception):Can you tell how the curves have shifted and figure out the differences between the two curves? Click the Show Differences button to see what is really going on.Look especially at the top left corner and middle panels. There is a consistent upward shift that looks big at low values of x and seems to diminish at high values of x.You will see this issue arise when we shift the AD curve so keep an eye out for it.There is no doubt about it -- shifting is complicated!

Shifting002032020

x1yy as a function of x1

SP500SP500CPIAUCSLlinIndexlinIndex 1982-84=100MDailyMMonthly12/31/19551957-01-02 to 2013-12-1212/31/19551947-01-01 to 2013-10-01S&P 500 Stock Price IndexConsumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All ItemsS&P Dow Jones Indices LLCU.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor StatisticsdatevaluedatevalueReal S&P 500 in constant Oct-2013 $12/31/195558.012/31/195529.4461.9638488253If you update the data, you need to update the formula so the prices are in constant dollars from the last month of data available.01/31/195655.801/31/195629.4443.448155049302/29/195655.002/29/195629.4437.4061938116For an even longer series of the S&P index, see03/31/195655.703/31/195629.5441.1008747461http://www.measuringworth.com/m/datasets/sap/04/30/195655.204/30/195629.6436.620823807905/31/195657.305/31/195629.6452.139347517706/30/195655.806/30/195629.6441.821953299507/31/195656.507/31/195629.6446.217159067908/31/195654.808/31/195629.6432.793531914909/30/195653.709/30/195629.8422.269036638710/31/195655.510/31/195629.8435.504693082611/30/195656.811/30/195629.8445.497967125112/31/195659.712/31/195629.8467.929415549601/31/195762.201/31/195729.8487.126117962502/28/195764.102/28/195729.8502.405126005403/31/195765.803/31/195729.8516.322731969104/30/195766.504/30/195729.8521.053351206405/31/195765.605/31/195729.8514.158209115306/30/195765.406/30/195729.9511.37685561507/31/195767.807/31/195729.9529.386917835708/31/195767.308/31/195730.0524.547234156109/30/195768.009/30/195730.0530.318345563710/31/195771.110/31/195730.0554.338647098111/30/195771.711/30/195730.0558.926555148312/31/195769.112/31/195730.0537.587169107901/31/195870.201/31/195830.1545.26727864502/28/195870.302/28/195830.2544.725366920803/31/195868.103/31/195830.2526.667805362504/30/195863.004/30/195830.2487.022682539705/31/195855.605/31/195830.2430.544158887806/30/195857.006/30/195830.2440.769085373907/31/195858.507/31/195830.3451.864073976208/31/195858.008/31/195830.4445.787771203209/30/195856.209/30/195830.4432.290828176410/31/195860.010/31/195830.4462.074796576711/30/195862.611/30/195830.4482.084697827512/31/195865.112/31/195830.4499.722354796301/31/195965.901/31/195930.5505.66349606302/28/195965.602/28/195930.5503.020554572303/31/195968.803/31/195930.5527.448755905504/30/195970.104/30/195930.5537.505510324505/31/195970.105/31/195930.6535.520381574606/30/195969.106/30/195930.7526.201321603107/31/195971.007/31/195930.8539.697295609808/31/195972.808/31/195930.7554.380687509/30/195973.009/30/195930.8555.284495609810/31/195972.610/31/195930.8551.628881091611/30/195974.211/30/195930.9561.578347150312/31/195976.512/31/195930.9577.718862314201/31/196077.501/31/196030.9586.22193464902/29/196078.802/29/196030.9595.477388493903/31/196079.903/31/196031.0603.896979644604/30/196080.704/30/196031.0609.198894770805/31/196080.205/31/196031.0604.990452112206/30/196083.206/30/196031.0627.256665377207/31/196082.007/31/196031.1617.463961352708/31/196083.408/31/196031.1627.475073359109/30/196084.909/30/196031.1637.487429305910/31/196085.410/31/196031.2640.069065043311/30/196084.011/30/196031.3628.1766297612/31/196086.112/31/196031.3643.719468030701/31/196186.801/31/196131.3648.42851662402/28/196186.802/28/196131.3648.404619610303/31/196188.003/31/196131.4655.452191204604/30/196189.304/30/196131.5663.099689961905/31/196185.005/31/196131.6629.010829484306/30/196184.906/30/196131.6628.645892336907/31/196186.507/31/196131.6640.952580665608/31/196189.408/31/196131.6660.903195445909/30/196191.409/30/196131.7675.125217061610/31/196192.210/31/196131.8678.595502362211/30/196191.711/30/196131.9673.38172182112/31/196193.312/31/196131.9684.409114178201/31/196292.701/31/196232.1675.550608478802/28/196288.902/28/196232.2645.769267868203/31/196291.603/31/196232.3663.470037174704/30/196286.804/30/196232.4627.19809088105/31/196286.105/31/196232.4621.418050648506/30/196285.806/30/196232.5618.492410477707/31/196280.707/31/196232.7577.537984686108/31/196277.808/31/196232.8555.499251297709/30/196277.109/30/196232.9548.968372602710/31/196281.010/31/196232.9575.915751824811/30/196281.311/30/196232.9577.630760631812/31/196284.512/31/196232.9600.154577507601/31/196387.401/31/196333.0618.953541818202/28/196389.402/28/196333.0633.548829090903/31/196391.003/31/196333.1642.51286042304/30/196392.604/30/196333.1654.026668277905/31/196391.405/31/196333.3641.953917117106/30/196393.006/30/196333.4651.092277844307/31/196394.507/31/196333.5659.478146865708/31/196395.808/31/196333.6666.700728571409/30/196395.709/30/196333.7663.681699703310/31/196392.710/31/196333.9639.075211/30/196395.311/30/196334.0655.350070588212/31/196395.012/31/196334.1651.645522580601/31/196490.801/31/196434.2620.411578947402/29/196489.102/29/196434.3607.28730962103/31/196495.703/31/196434.4650.244516279104/30/196497.904/30/196434.5663.269245217405/31/1964100.505/31/196434.7677.369401729106/30/1964100.306/30/196434.9671.94677363907/31/196498.107/31/196435.0655.397225142908/31/1964101.308/31/196435.1675.045661538509/30/1964103.809/30/196435.3687.24980396610/31/1964105.410/31/196435.4696.140203389811/30/1964106.511/30/196435.6699.322355056212/31/1964102.012/31/196435.7668.284826890801/31/1965101.401/31/196535.8662.23830167602/28/196599.302/28/196536.1643.133916897503/31/1965101.303/31/196536.3652.214823140504/30/1965104.604/30/196536.4672.005301098905/31/196599.105/31/196536.6633.325822950806/30/196594.706/30/196536.8601.73792608707/31/196594.207/31/196536.9596.748982113808/31/196594.508/31/196537.1595.611700269509/30/196595.509/30/196537.3598.749065951710/31/196596.210/31/196537.5599.857804811/30/196591.111/30/196537.7565.046336339512/31/196590.312/31/196537.9557.129300263901/31/196687.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