ASPIRING ALWAYS TO LEAD
Competing Strongly Today And Innovating For Tomorrow
Phil Craig, Executive General Manager, Corporate Affairs
UBS Utilities Conference, 15 June 2012
Important Notice
This presentation does not constitute investment advice, or an inducement or recommendation to acquire or dispose of any securities
in Origin, in any jurisdiction (including the USA). This presentation is for information purposes only, is in a summary form, and does not
purport to be complete. This presentation does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs
of any investor, potential investor or any other person. No investment decision should be made in reliance on this presentation.
Independent financial and taxation advice should be sought before making any investment decision.
Certain statements in this presentation are in the nature of forward looking statements, including statements of current intention, statements of
opinion and predictions as to possible future events. Such statements are not statements of fact and there can be no certainty of outcome in
relation to the matters to which the statements relate. These forward looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties,
assumptions and other important factors that could cause the actual outcomes to be materially different from the events or results expressed or
implied by such statements. Those risks, uncertainties, assumptions and other important factors are not all within the control of Origin and cannot
be predicted by Origin and include changes in circumstances or events that may cause objectives to change as well as risks, circumstances and
events specific to the industry, countries and markets in which Origin and its related bodies corporate, joint ventures and associated undertakings
operate. They also include general economic conditions, exchange rates, interest rates, the regulatory environment, competitive pressures, selling
price, market demand and conditions in the financial markets which may cause objectives to change or may cause outcomes not to be realised.
None of Origin or any of its respective subsidiaries, affiliates and associated companies (or any of their respective officers, employees or agents)
(the "Relevant Persons") makes any representation, assurance or guarantee as to the accuracy or likelihood of fulfilment of any forward looking
statement or any outcomes expressed or implied in any forward looking statements. The forward looking statements in this presentation reflect
views held only at the date of this presentation. In addition, statements about past performance are not necessarily indicative of future
performance. Subject to any continuing obligations under law or the ASX Listing Rules, Origin and the Relevant Persons disclaim any obligation or
undertaking to disseminate after the date of this presentation any updates or revisions to any forward looking statements to reflect any change in
expectations in relation to any forward looking statements or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which such statements are
based.
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information in this
presentation and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by Origin or any of the Relevant Persons in relation to it. In particular, Origin
does not endorse, and is not responsible for, the accuracy or reliability of any information in this presentation relating to a third party.
All references to "$" are references to Australian dollars unless otherwise specified.
All references to debt refer to interest-bearing debt.
A reference to NEM is a reference to Australia’s National Electricity Market.
2 |
An investment in Origin today provides a stake in a company with a proven
track record of delivering value …
3 |
The largest fuel integrated generation retail business in Australia and New Zealand
• Large and diversified portfolio of physical and contracted fuel supply
• Largest and most diversified generation portfolio
• Largest retail energy customer base
A substantial investment in Australia’s premier coal seam gas resource
• Strong and well aligned joint venture with unrivalled expertise
• Largest 2P CSG reserves to cover domestic and export contracts
• FID taken on first LNG train, FID on second LNG train pending
• Binding sales contracts signed for 8.6 mtpa of LNG
Growing resource opportunities domestically and overseas
• Domestic and international gas exploration opportunities
• Clean energy development opportunities including geothermal and hydro
… through investment in development projects and acquisitions
Origin is Australia’s leading fuel-integrated generator/retailer
4 |
• Large and diversified portfolio
of physical and contracted fuel
supply
• Substantial investment in
Australia’s premier Coal Seam
Gas resource
• Growing resource opportunities
domestically and overseas
• Largest and most diversified
generation portfolio
• Gas-fired, coal-fired and wind
power stations
• Peaking, intermediate and
baseload operation
• Located in all major regions of
the National Electricity Market
• Largest retail energy customer
• 4.4 million customer accounts
(electricity, gas and LPG)
• Operates in all major regions
of the NEM
• Other energy solutions include
solar PV, solar hot water,
electric vehicle charging and
trigeneration
Large, low-cost
fuel position
Diverse and flexible
generation portfolio
Australia’s leading
energy retailer
5 | Sources: (1) ABS, The Australia Institute, CommSec (2) Average household consumption in the National Energy Market, based on ABARE and ABS
1974
Standard home appliances:
• Fridge
• TV
• Radio
• Clothes washer
* Red text represents appliances that are
generally continuously in use
• Toaster
• Iron
• 1 light per room
Average new house size: 130 sqm1
Average household consumption: 4.9 MWh/annum2
2010
Standard home appliances:
• Air conditioner
• Fridge
• Second fridge
• Freezer
• Dishwasher
• Microwave
• Clothes washer
• Clothes dryer
• Computer
• Large screen TV (maybe
several)
• Blue-Ray
• Entertainment system
• Gaming console, iPod, iPad
• Air conditioner
• Hair dryer, hair straightener
• Mobile phone charger
• Halogen down lights
Average new house size: 245 sqm1
Average household consumption: 7.4 MWh/annum2
Average household energy consumption has increased significantly
over the years, driven by changes in lifestyle …
… and sustained demand growth has created price pressure
Sustained consumption growth has driven generation and network
investment, and measures to address carbon emissions …
… that have in turn driven significant increases in energy prices back to consumers 6 |
Long-term electricity consumption has grown by 3.5% p.a.,
reducing to 1.6% p.a. on average in the last ten years with
demand growth flattening and falling since 2008
Source: AEMC, “Possible future retail e electricity price movements
1-July-2011 to 30-June-2014”, released 9 December 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2010-102011-122012-132013-142012-13
Carbon
2013-14
Carbon
c/kWh (nominal)
Possible future retail electricity price movements
LRET
SRES
Feed in tariff
State EE and DM schemes
Other state based schemes
Transmission
Distribution
Wholesale
Retail
Forecast Actual
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
Lon
g Te
rm S
mo
oth
ed
Ave
rage
Gro
wth
Rat
e
Ene
rgy
Use
-TW
h
Electricity Use by Industry - ABARE
AgricultureMiningManufacturingElec, Gas, WaterTransportCommercialResidential Lt Avg Growth Rate
While consumers are increasingly concerned about cost-of-living
issues …
… they also have higher expectations regarding service and transparency
7 |
Consumers expect to have instant access to information Energy retailers are limited by the traditional
quarterly meter reading and billing cycles
Origin has invested in retail capability that drives core operational
improvements and the ability to compete today …
… and also enables innovative customer engagement and optionality for the
future, giving customers a sense of control
8 |
• Retail Transformation (SAP implementation) completed successfully, and legacy systems being shut down
• A single SAP billing and customer management platform replacing 6 major and 17 minor systems
• Immediate process and service benefits, with cost-to-serve improvements to come
• Associated investment in leading edge self-service capability and home energy management (Smart) portals
• Ability to build commodity supply into broader customer engagement and solutions, and ultimately holistic
energy management options
Origin Online Service1 gives retail consumers easy access online to buy,
move and manage with Origin 24/7…
Key capabilities include:
• Secure, real time online account
management and bill payment
• The ability to manage gas and electricity
services across one or multiple properties
• E-billing and digital payments
• The ability to review energy usage, payment
and contract history
• Product comparison, quoting and, purchase
(including tracking of contract arrangements)
• Real time property moves or switching to
Origin Energy
… offering customers a secure place for transactions
(1) Origin’s Online Services will be available to SA customers from June 2012, followed by National rollout in August 2012. 9 |
10 |
Origin SMART will provide real-time consumption and bill transparency
Benefits of Origin SMART:
• Reduction in customer churn
• Uplift in customer acquisitions
• Reduction in high bill enquiries
• Reduction in customer complaints
• New smart technology product opportunities
• Demand management and pricing opportunities
Origin’s initial SMART promotion
11 |
www.originenergy.com.au/originsmart/take-a-tour
Initial visibility, understanding and engagement will encourage
customers to consider products and solutions, including solar PV, hot
water, and electric vehicles …
… and lead ultimately to a move from commodity supply to broader home
energy management
12 |
Origin has a proven track record of delivering innovative solutions to
consumers …
• First to offer incentive-based customer reward
schemes instead of discounts, including AFL and
magazine subscriptions
• Pioneered consumer green products
• Only retailer offering green gas
• First retailer to offer produced carbon offsets for
travel and vehicle emissions
• First to offer energy-efficient light bulbs in NSW
• Leader in solar installations
• Leader in SMART solutions
• First to announce electric vehicle charging stations
… which has, and will continue to build brand perceptions and deliver
market share and product sales benefits 13 |
GROWTH AND STABILITY
• Increases non-commodity sales
• Grows market share
• Reduces operating costs
• Protects underlying commodity sales
• Builds brand perceptions
However, innovation works most effectively in a supportive regulatory
environment
• A supportive (or at least non-invasive) regulatory framework is required for Origin and other
energy retailers to deliver innovative products and solutions to consumers
• The ability to introduce innovative solutions, such as Origin’s SMART portal and associated
offerings in Victoria, is facilitated by:
• De-regulation of pricing
• Support for competition and market-based solutions
• Support for the continuing rollout of smart meter infrastructure
• Complete separation of government from asset ownership
• Regulators could support Origin and other retailers by:
• De-regulating energy prices
• Actively supporting retail competition and innovation
• Reducing regulatory burden and red tape
• Avoiding pre-emptive regulation that constrains possible market solutions
14 |
Sometimes regulators can intervene and send the wrong signals
While the recent IPART decision is in line with expectations, if left unchanged, the QCA decision will restrict Origin’s ability to appropriately recover costs, and constrain innovation and customer choice in Queensland
15 |
Queensland retail tariff determination NSW retail tariff determination
• Origin intends to contest the
Queensland Competition Authority (QCA)
final determination on Queensland
regulated retail electricity prices for the
2012-13 financial year
• The NSW Independent Pricing and
Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) final
determination on NSW regulated retail
electricity prices for the 2012-13 financial
year is broadly in line with Origin’s
expectations
• Origin believes the determination
understates the wholesale cost of
supplying electricity to customers, not
allowing for the cost of investment in
generation, either directly or through
long-term contracts
• The final determination better reflects
the cost of providing energy to consumers
in NSW relative to the draft
determination
Digital infrastructure Mixed copper/fibre networks
20% mobile internet
Extensive mobile internet
Paperless interaction
Virtual service
Generation Dominated by coal
Much more gas and alternatives,
including baseload renewables
Distributed generation 12% households solar hot water
5% have solar PV
Mass take-up of distributed generation
• Solar hot water
• Solar PV
• Fuel cells, energy storage
mainstream
• Trigeneration precincts (residential
& commercial)
Electric Vehicles 100% fossil fuel vehicles
Significant proportion of all passenger
cars electric, charged largely at home
at night
SMART 90% dumb meters for mass market
Antiquated system drives service
requests and frustration
Most homes have a smart meter
Customers manage their consumption
• Smart appliances linked by home
networks
• Commercial grade energy demand
management systems
Australia’s energy market will continue to evolve with social and
technological change, and Origin is very prepared …
16 |
Today Tomorrow
… competing strongly today, and innovating for tomorrow
Thank you
17 |
For more information
Kylie Springall
Group Manager, Investor Relations
Email: [email protected]
Office: +61 2 8345 5288
Mobile: + 61 400 477 393
www.originenergy.com.au