C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C ECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLD
QUARTER 1, 2015
2015 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 1ST EDITION
2 QUARTER 1 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT2
• Globalconsumerconfidenceincreasedoneindexpointto97,asregionalscoresimprovedorremainedstableineveryregionexceptLatinAmerica.
• Asia-Pacificshowedarobuststarttotheyear,withconfidencescoresinnineof14countriesatorabovethebaselinereadingof100.
• ManyofEurope’skeymarketspostedthehighestconfidencescoresinseveralyears.
• NorthAmericanrecessionarysentimentcontinuedtorecede,butspendingintentionsremainedrestrained.
• ConfidenceinLatinAmericadeclinedtothelowestlevelsince2011.
• Overasix-yearperiod,concernsabouttheeconomyandjobsecurityshowedaninverserelationshipwithconcernsabouthealthandwork/lifebalance.
THE WORLD’S LEADING DEVELOPED ECONOMIES SHOWED IMPROVED CONSUMER CONFIDENCE; CHINA, RUSSIA AND BRAZIL DECLINED
Globalconsumerconfidencestarted2015withanindexscoreof97—
anincreaseofonepointfromfourth-quarter2014andfromayear-ago.
Comparedtotheendoflastyearwhenallregionalconfidencescores
declined,itwasamoreupbeatstarttotheyear,asconfidenceincreased
slightlyorremainedstableineveryregionexceptLatinAmerica.
3Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company 3
ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY
Thefindingsinthissurveyare
basedonrespondentswith
onlineaccessin60countries
(unlessotherwisenoted).While
anonlinesurveymethodology
allowsfortremendousscale
andglobalreach,itprovidesa
perspectiveonlyonthehabits
ofexistingInternetusers,not
totalpopulations.Indeveloping
marketswhereonlinepenetration
isstillgrowing,audiencesmay
beyoungerandmoreaffluent
thanthegeneralpopulationof
thatcountry.Inaddition,survey
responsesarebasedonclaimed
behaviorratherthanactual
metereddata.
ConsumerconfidenceincreasedonepointinAsia-Pacific,postingthe
highestquarterlyregionalindexscoreof107,whileNorthAmericaheld
steadyat106.ConfidenceintheMiddleEast/Africa(96)andEurope(77)
edgeduponepointinthefirstquarter,butdecreasedtwopointsinLatin
America(86)—theregion’slowestscoresince2011.
Amongtheworld’slargesteconomies,consumerconfidenceincreasedmost
inJapan,risingninepointsto82inthefirstquarter,whichwasthecountry’s
highestscoresince2005—thestartofNielsen’sconsumerconfidenceindex
measurement.Germanyalsoreachedamilestone:Sentimentincreased
twopointstoreachthebaselinescoreof100.Confidencealsoincreased
onepointintheU.S.(107),threepointsintheU.K.(97)andthreepoints
inFrance(60).Conversely,confidenceinChinadecreasedonepointto106
fromfourth-quarter2014.
“Whileconfidenceacrossglobalregionsremainedrelativelystableinthe
firstquarter,thereisconsiderablevariationacrossdifferentmarkets,”said
LouiseKeely,seniorvicepresident,Nielsen,andpresident,TheDemand
Institute.“Inthefirstquarterofthisyear,thekeyemergingmarketsofBrazil
andRussiasawlargedeclinesinconfidenceforthesecondconsecutive
quarter,withthedropinoilpricesandthepoliticalinstabilityinBrazil.
Chinadroppedanotherindexpointatthestartofthisyear,whichcomes
afterafour-pointdeclineinthepreviousquarter,reflectingtherecent
slowdowninGDPthere.”
“InEurope,therearesignsofimprovedconsumerconfidenceinmany
countries,whichreflectssignsofgrowthinthesemarkets,”continuedKeely.
“LoweroilpriceshavehelpedEuropeanconsumerswhoarenotinoil-
producingcountries,andlabormarketsareimproving.Ontheotherhand,
thefallingEuroagainstthedollarisgoodforexportindustriesbutnotfor
consumers,whowillpaymoreforimports.”
Inthelatestonlinesurvey,conductedFeb.23-March13,2015,consumer
confidenceincreasedin37of60marketsmeasuredbyNielsen(61%),
comparedwithonly17of60markets(28%)inthepreviousquarter.India’s
scoreof130,thehighestscoreamong60markets,wasonepointhigher
thaninfourth-quarter2014,followedbyIndonesia(123),thePhilippines
(115)andtheUnitedArabEmirates(115).Italy(57)showedthebiggest
quarterlyimprovement,asconfidencerose12pointsfromfourth-quarter
2014.TheUkrainereportedthelowestscoreof41,aquarterlydeclineof11
points—thebiggestdropinthesurvey.
TheNielsenconsumerconfidenceindexmeasuresperceptionsoflocaljob
prospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentions.Consumer
confidencelevelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicatedegrees
ofoptimismandpessimism,respectively.TheNielsenGlobalSurveyof
ConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,establishedin2005,
measuresconsumerconfidence,majorconcernsandspendingintentions
amongmorethan30,000respondentswithInternetaccessin60countries.
4 QUARTER 1 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ1-2015 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicatedegreesofoptimism/pessimism.
+3-5
+1+3
+6+5
+1
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-1
+3
+1
+1
0
+2
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-6
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0
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+20
0+11
+3-7+6-1+2+4+1-7
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+12
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+1+3
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-3
87 SO
UTH
AFRICA 87 CH
ILE 88
BRAZIL 88
ISRAEL 88 TAIW
AN 89 NETHERLANDS
ITALY 57
90 EGYPT
HUNGARY 57
92 IRELAND
SLOVENIA 57
CROATIA 58
94 MALAYSIA
PORTUGAL 59
94 COLOMBIA
FRANCE
60
94 SWITZERLAND
FINLAND 63
95 AUSTRALIA
GREECE 65
96 CANADA
VENEZUELA 65
97 UNITED KINGDOM
SPAIN 67
99 PERU
BULGARIA 72 100 GERMANYRUSSIA 72 100 SINGAPORE
POLAND 73
102 NEW ZEALAND
SLOVAKIA 73
102 PAKISTAN
ROMANIA 74
106 DENMARK
ARGENTINA 75
106 HONG KONG
BELGIUM 79
106 CHINA
LATVIA 80
107 UNITED STATES
JAPAN
82
107 SAUDI A
RABIA
AUSTRIA
82
112 V
IETNAM
ESTONIA
83
114
THAILA
ND
CZECH R
EPUBL
IC
83
115
UNITED A
RAB EM
IRATE
S
LITH
UAN
IA
84
115
PHIL
IPPI
NES
NO
RWAY
8
5
123
IN
DON
ESIA
MEX
ICO
8
6TU
RKEY
86
SWED
EN
87
+1
SERBIA 53
+1
130
IN
DIA
IND
EX
COU
NTR
Y
LESS
CONFIDENT
MORE CONFIDENT
-2
SOUTH
KOREA
46
-11
UKRAINE
41
NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC
97 ( +1 change from Q4-2014 )
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 60 Countries – 3-Month TrendQ1-2015 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index
Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.
INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM
GLOBALAVERAGE
5Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ1-2015 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
5
MONEY REMAINED FIRMLY IN THE POCKETS FOR MOSTGlobaldiscretionaryspendingintentionsdeclinedorremainedsteadyinthefirstquarteracrossalllifestylecategoriesmeasured.Aboutthree-in-10globalrespondents(32%)plannedtospendonholidays/vacations,newclothes(31%)andout-of-homeentertainment(28%),quarterlydeclinesoftwo,threeandtwopercentagepoints,respectively.Spendingintentionsforpayingcreditcardsanddebts(25%)andnewtechnologyproducts(24%)heldsteadyfromthepreviousquarter.Millennialrespondents—especiallythoseinthe25-29agerange—exceededtheglobalaveragesbyasmuch10percentagepointsforthesediscretionaryspendingactivities.Theseconsumerswhoarejuststartingtheircareersoftendonotyethavefamiliestosupportandhavemorefreedomtospend.
Globalsavingintentions,ontheotherhand,showedaslightincreaseofonepercentagepointeachforinvestinginstocksandmutualfunds(22%)andforretirementsavings(11%)fromfourth-quarter2014.Abouthalfofglobalrespondentsplannedtobanktheirsparecash(48%),nochangefromthepreviousquarter,while14%saidtheyhadnosparecash,upfrom13%thepreviousquarter.Aboutone-quarterofthoseaged55+saidtheyhadnosparecash(22%)—thehighestpercentageofanyagegroup.Apromisingsignforthefuture,however,isthatmorethanhalfofrespondentsinthe21-34agerange(53%)saidtheyweresavingtheirmoney.
“Withfallingoilprices,consumersintheU.S.andEurope,andthoseinoil-importingcountries,haveachoiceofwhethertospendorsavetheextracashonhand,”saidKeely.“Datafromearly2015suggeststhatconsumersarenotspendingitall.That,alongsideglobalsavingsandinvestingintentions,suggeststhatconsumersaroundtheworld,whilegenerallyfeelingrelativeupbeatcomparedtoafewyearsago,arestillveryinterestedinpreparingfortheireconomicfutures.”
Areviewofthetopspendingintentionsbyregionshowedsimilarpriorities,asputtingcashintosavingaccountswasthetopgoalforrespondentsineveryregionexceptLatinAmerica.InLatinAmerica,payingoffdebtsclaimedthehighestpercentageofrespondents.Spendingtimetorelaxandhavefunwasalsoimportantaroundtheworld,asplanstogoonholidays/vacations,buynewclothesandspendonout-of-homeentertainmentexpenseswereamongthehighest-ratedactivities.
NorthAmericansreportedthehighestpercentagehavingnosparecash(22%),followedbyrespondentsintheMiddleEast/Africa(21%),Europe(20%),LatinAmerica(15%)andAsia-Pacific(8%).
6 QUARTER 1 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12015
TOP 3 WAYS TO SPEND SPARE CASH BY REGION
LATIN AMERICA
SAVING IS A TOP PRIORITY IN EVERY REGION
NEW CLOTHES
OUT-OF-HOME ENTERTAINMENT
HOLIDAYS/VACATIONS
SAVINGS
SAVINGS
SAVINGS
PAYING DEBTS
HOLIDAYS/VACATIONS
NEW CLOTHES
PAYING DEBTS
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
NO SPARE CASH
61%
38%
34%
39%
26%
20%
40%
34%
21%
37%
8%
20%
21%
22%
15%
NEW CLOTHES 31%
HOLIDAYS/VACATIONS 30%
SAVINGS 35%
SAVINGS 33%
OUT-OF-HOME ENTERTAINMENT 32%
7Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
LESS CONCERN ABOUT JOB SECURITY CONNECTS WITH MORE WORRY OVER HEALTH AND WORK/LIFE BALANCEConcernsabouttheeconomyandjobsecurityhaveadirectrelationship—asonegoesupordown,theothertypicallyfollows,andinrecessionarytimes,bothusuallyrise.Conversely,thereisoftenaninverserelationshipbetweenconcernsabouttheeconomy/jobsecurityandconcernsaboutrisingprices.Recessionsareperiodswheninflationisgenerallylower,sofoodandutilitypriceswouldusuallynotriseasmuch.Areviewofconcernsamongglobalrespondentsoverasix-yearperiodillustratesthistrend.Whensentimentdroppedforworriesabouttheeconomyandjobsecurity,itusuallyroseforconcernsabouthigherfoodandutilityprices(seechartonthenextpage).
Interestingly,sentimentabouthealthandwork/lifebalanceisalsoconnected.Itturnsoutthatadecreasedpercentageofrespondentsconcernedabouttheeconomyandjobsoftencorrelatedwithanincreasedpercentageforthoseconcernedabouthealthandwork/lifebalance.Notonlywerehealthandwork/lifebalancetrendlinescloselyaligned,butbothoftenshowedanelevationwhenconcernsabouttheeconomyandjobsecuritydecreased.
“Whiletheeconomyislessofaconsumerconcernnowthanitwasduringthefinancialcrisis,itisstillconsumers’topconcerninmostcountries,alongsidejobsecurity,”saidKeely.“Insomecountries,concernsaboutpoliticalstabilityalsospikeduringperiodsofcrisis,suchasinBrazilinthelastquarter.Butpersonalconcernsabouthealthandwork/lifebalancearenotfarbehind,andinChina,theseconcernsareactuallymoreprevalentthaneconomicconcerns.Consumer-facingbusinesseshaveanopportunitytohelpconsumersaddressthesemorepersonalconcerns.”
Inthefirstquarter,thepercentageofglobalrespondentsconcernedabouttheeconomyedgedupslightlyto26%from25%infourth-quarter2014,whilethepercentageconcernedaboutjobsecurityheldsteadyat22%.Followingtheinversetrenddiscussedabove,worriesaboutrisingpricesforfoodandutilitybillsdippedslightly,andconcernsaboutwork/lifebalanceandhealthalsoedgeddown.
8 QUARTER 1 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
CONCERNS ABOUT HEALTH & WORK/LIFE BALANCE ARE CONNECTED AND OFTEN RISE WHEN WORRIES ABOUT THE ECONOMY/JOB SECURITY RECEDE
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
30%
40%
45%
THE ECONOMY
JOB SECURITY
WORK/LIFE BALANCE HEALTH
INCREASING FOOD PRICES INCREASING UTILITY BILLS (ELECTRICITY,GAS, HEATING, ETC)
35%
25%
2009
-Q1
2009
-Q2
2009
-Q3
2009
-Q4
2010
-Q1
2010
-Q2
2010
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2010
-Q4
2011-
Q1
2011-
Q2
2011-
Q3
2011-
Q4
2012
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2012
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2012
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2012
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2013
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2013
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2013
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2013
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2014
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2014
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2014
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2014
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2015
-Q1
THE PERIODAFTER THE GREAT
RECESSION, ECONOMY AND JOB SECURITY CONCERNS
DROP BUT REMAIN VOLATILEECONOMY AND JOB
CONCERNS STABILIZE
WORK/LIFE BALANCEAND HEALTH
CONCERNS RISE
THE GREATRECESSION YEARS
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12015
GLOBAL AVERAGE BIGGEST + SECOND BIGGEST CONCERNS OVER 6 YEARS
9Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN ASIA-PACIFIC WAS OPTIMISTIC ConsumerconfidenceinAsia-Pacificincreasedinnineof14marketsinthe
firstquarter,comparedtoonlythreethatroseinthefourth-quarter2014.
Ninemarketsalsoremainedatorabovethe100-baselinelevelofoptimism.
Indiahadthehighestindexscoreintheregionof130,aone-pointincrease
fromthepreviousquarterandalevelthathasnotbeenreachedsince2011.
ConfidenceinIndiahasbeenontheriseforsixconsecutivequarters.
“TheurbanIndianconsumerstartedtheyearwithpositivesentimentin
anticipationofimprovementthroughreformsandstimulusannounced
bythenewgovernment,”saidPiyushMathur,president,NielsenIndia
Region.“Theseinitialsignsofoptimismreflectanticipationofeconomic
recoverythatareyettomanifestwhenyoulookatfast-movingconsumer
goodsandautosectorsinparticularoverthelastfewquarters.Moreover,
infrastructure,engineeringandotherindustrialsectorsareyettogather
pace.Thefallininflationisexpectedtohaveanimpactondisposable
incomeovertime,butitwilltaketimeforthesectorstoberestoredto
perceptibleandsustainablegrowth.”
BigindexincreaseswerereportedinTaiwan,whereconfidencerose11points
to88—thehighestscoresince2011,andinJapan,whichroseninepointsto
88—thehighestscoreforthecountryrecordedbyNielsensince2005.
“Taiwanshowedastrongreboundatthestartofthisyearafteradeclinein
fourth-quarter2014,”saidAndyHuang,managingdirector,NielsenTaiwan.
“Theriseinconfidencesentimentwasdrivenbyastrongimprovementin
theoutlookforjobs,whichincreased16percentagepointsfromfourth-
quarter2014.Perceptionsaboutpersonalfinancesandawillingness
tospendalsoimprovednineand10percentagepoints,respectively.
PreliminaryGDPforecasts,afallingunemploymentrateandastabilizing
consumerpriceindexwereotherpositiveindicatorsatthestartof
2015,whichlikelycontributedtoincreasedoptimismamongTaiwanese
consumers.”
“Japaneseconsumersfeltanimprovementintheiremploymentsituationin
thefirstquarter,andmoreconsumersbelieveditwasagoodtimetospend,”
saidToshihiroFukutoku,managingdirector,NielsenJapan.“Thesefindings
alignwiththetrendreportedinthelatestconsumerconfidencesurveyby
theGovernmentofJapan,asperceptionindicesfor‘livingcircumstances’,
GLOBAL AVERAGE BIGGEST + SECOND BIGGEST CONCERNS OVER 6 YEARS
10 QUARTER 1 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
INDIA’S CONSUMER CONFIDENCE STAYS STRONG FOR 10 YEARS
10-YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TREND IN SELECT ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS
‘timingtopurchasedurablegoods’,‘employmentenvironment’,‘income
increase’and‘assetvalue’allimproved.Thankstotherecentdecline
inoilprices,theweakerYenandaboostintourism,retailersarerather
optimisticintheirexpectationsforcontinuousgrowthinconsumer
spending.”
VietnamandMalaysiaalsoreportedstrongconfidenceboostsofsixand
fivepoints,respectively,inthefirstquarter.Vietnam’srisetoascore
of112isthethirdconsecutiveincreaseandthecountry’shighestscore
since2010.Conversely,China’sindexfellonepointto106inthefirst
quarter,whichcomesafterafour-pointdeclineinfourth-quarter2014.
“Despitetheslightdeclineinoverallconsumerconfidence,Chinese
consumers’willingnesstospendkeptgrowing,especiallyamong
consumersfromlower-tiercities,”saidOliverRust,managingdirector
ofNielsenChina.“WiththeincreasingdisposableincomeofChinese
consumers,thewell-controlledCPI,andtherapiddevelopmentof
e-commerceworldwide,webelievethehugepotentialofChinese
consumerswillbefurtherunleashed.Meanwhile,oursurveyalsoshows
thatconfidenceinEastChinaisleadingthemomentuminthecountry
andisexpectedtoshowstrongvitalityinthefuture.”
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
INDIA
CHINA
AUSTRALIA JAPAN
GLOBAL AVG
2005
-Q1
2005
-Q3
2006
-Q1
2006
-Q3
2007
-Q1
2007
-Q3
2008
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2008
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2009
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2009
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2009
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2009
-Q4
2010
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2010
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2010
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2010
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2011-
Q1
2011-
Q2
2011-
Q3
2011-
Q4
2012
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2012
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2012
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2012
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2013
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2013
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2013
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2013
-Q4
2014
-Q1
2014
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2014
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2014
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2015
-Q1
THE GREATRECESSION YEARS
INDIA AND CHINA'S SCORES REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS AND ABOVE THE
GLOBAL AVERAGE
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12015
11Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
10-YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TREND IN SELECT ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS
RECOVERY HOPES WERE BUOYED IN EUROPE Europeremainedtheleastoptimisticregiongloballywithanoverallindex
of77,buttherewereseveralsignsthatgreenshootsweresproutinginthe
recession-miredmindsetsintheregion.Jobconfidencerosein15of32
markets,whilerespondents’personalfinancialoutlooksincreasedin18
fromfourth-quarter2014.Confidenceforimmediatespendingintentions,
whilestillcomparativelylow,increasedin19markets.
ItalyandGreece,twooftheregion’sdebt-riddenandrecession-battered
countries,bothshowedconfidenceincreasesof12-pointsinthefirst
quarter.Italy’sscoreof57wasthehighestforthecountrysince2011,and
Greecepostedaconfidencereadingof65—itshighestlevelsince2009.
“Italy’slatestconfidenceincreaseisthemostsignificantquarterlyleap
Nielsenhasrecorded,anditappearsthatrecoveryhasstarted,”said
GiovanniFantasia,managingdirector,NielsenItaly.“Inparticular,
employmentexpectationsimprovedsevenpercentagepoints,andthere
wasasix-percentagepointincreaseinpersonalfinancialoutlook.These
changeshavehadapositiveeffectonconsumptionpropensity.Inthe
firstthreemonthsoftheyear,Nielsenretailsalesdatashowsgrowth
of2%,anothersignofrenewedoptimismaboutthefuture.Whilethese
developmentsarepositive,furtherimprovementwillbeneededtoconfirm
theeconomiccrisisisfinallybehindus.”
“InGreece,anewgovernmentwaselectedinthegeneralelectionsthat
tookplaceinJanuary,andassuch,thiskindofchangeusuallyboosts
optimismandbringsnewhopeforthefuture,”saidVickyGrigoriadou,
marketleader,NielsenGreece.“Theriseinoptimisminthefirstquarter
ishigherthaninpastquarters,likelyduetoanexpectationthatthenew
governmentwillsuccessfullynegotiatewithEUandIMFauthoritieson
theGreekdebtissueandothereconomicprospects.Retailpurchasing
patternsremainedrestrained,however,asamorestableenvironmentis
necessaryinordertoincreasehouseholdspendingactivities.”
Intheregion,onlyGermany(100)andDenmark(106)reachedthe
optimismbaselinelevel.Theywerealsotheonlytwocountriesinthe
regionwherehalf(50%)ofrespondentswereconfidentaboutimmediate
spendingintentions.
12 QUARTER 1 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
“InGermany,astableeconomicsituationandastronglabormarkethad
apositiveimpactonconsumerconfidenceinthepast12months,”said
IngoSchier,managingdirector,NielsenGermany.“Comparedtolast
year,moreGermanswerewillingtospendmoney.Groceryanddrug-
storespendingthisyearhasbeenatacontinuouslyhigherlevelthanthe
previousyear,withsalesup1.6%and4.6%,respectively.Risingincomes
andpersistentlylowinterestratessuggestthattheconsumerclimate
willstaypositiveinGermanyforthelong-term,butterrorismconcerns
andarmedconflictsthreatentodampentheseeffects.”
Severalothercountriespostedtheirhighestconfidencescoresin
severalyears:TheU.K.’sscoreof97reachedthehighestlevelsince
2006;Ireland(92)reacheditshighestsince2008,Spain(67)reached
itshighestsince2010,andPortugal(59)reacheditshighestsince
2006.Conversely,ongoinggeopoliticaltensionsbetweenRussiaand
theUkrainelikelycontributedtonewconfidencelowsreportedinthese
countries.Russia’sindexfellforthesecondconsecutivequarterto
72,alevellowerthanitsconfidencereadingattheheightoftheGreat
Recession,andtheUkraine’sscoredropped11pointsto41inthefirst
quarter.
“ThenormallyresilientRussianconsumerisunderseverestrainright
now,”saidKyriakosKyriakou,regionaldirector,NielsenEasternEurope.
“Themassivecurrencydevaluationattheendof2014ledtoaflourish
ofconsumerspendinginanattempttogetaheadofinflation.Now,
spikinginflationandnegativewagegrowtharetakingtheirtoll.Inthe
newmarketconditions,manufacturersandretailerswillfightfora
smallershareofshopperwalletsasthemajorityofRussianshaveeither
switchedintosavingsmodeorhavenosparecashtospend.Today,it’s
morecriticalthanevertogetthe“pricevs.volume”equationrightin
ordertomaintainmarketshare.Cheaperproductsarelikelytogenerate
moresalesvolumesthanever—aslongasqualityisnotcompromised.”
13Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
CONFIDENCE IN EUROPE IS IMPROVING BUT STILL NOT AT PRE-RECESSION LEVELS FOR MANY
THE GREATRECESSION YEARS
EXCEPT FOR GERMANY, EUROPE'S BIG
ECONOMIES CONTINUE TO FALL BELOW THE GLOBAL AVERAGE
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2005
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2005
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2006
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2006
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2007
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2007
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2008
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2008
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2009
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2009
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2009
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2010
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2010
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2010
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2011-
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2011-
Q2
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2011-
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2012
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2012
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2012
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2012
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2013
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2013
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2013
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2014
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2014
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2014
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2015
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RUSSIA
GLOBAL AVG GERMANY
UNITEDKINGDOM
SPAIN FRANCE ITALY
10-YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TREND IN SELECT EUROPEAN MARKETS
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12015
14 QUARTER 1 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
U.S. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO CLIMB, WHILE CANADIAN CONFIDENCE DECLINES U.S.consumerconfidenceincreasedoneindexpointinthefirstquarter
toascoreof107,maintaininganabove-the-baselineoptimismlevelfor
ayearnow.Conversely,confidencedeclinedinCanadasixpointsto96,
whichisthecountry’slowestscoresince2012.
IntheU.S.,theonlyconfidenceindicatorthatincreasedinthefirst
quarterwasjobprospects,risingfivepercentagepointsto55%,while
personalfinancesentimentandimmediatespendingintentionsdeclined
twopercentagepointseachto62%and50%,respectively,fromfourth-
quarter2014.Recessionarysentimentreachedanewlowof50%,down
from55%thepreviousquarterand65%sixmonthsago.
“IntheU.S.,optimismcontinuedtomoveforwardinthefirstquarter,
likelyinfluencedbytheadditionofnearly600,000newjobsandlow
gasolineprices,whichputmoremoneyinconsumers’wallets,”said
JamesRusso,seniorvicepresident,NielsenGlobalConsumerInsights.
“Consumerspendingpickedupinthefirstquarter,withfast-moving
consumergoodssalesrising2.5%,comparedtoanannualincrease
ofonly1.4%during2014.While2015isofftoagoodstart,halfof
Americansarestillinarecessionarymindset,andnearly35%saythey
livepaychecktopaycheck.Asthisundercurrentofuncertaintystill
permeates,consumerscontinuetothinkcarefullyabouthowandwhere
theyspendtheirmoney.”
InCanada,adownbeateconomicoutlookledtoa10-percentagepoint
declineinsentimentaboutjobprospectsto44%—thelowestlevel
since2009—andasix-percentagepointdeclineforimmediatespending
intentionsto37%,thelowestlevelsince2012.Sentimentaboutpersonal
financesalsodroppedsevenpercentagepointsto55%fromfourth-
quarter2014.
15Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
“InCanada,consumerconfidencestillremainsvolatileanduncertain
eventhoughtherecessioniswellbehindus,”saidCarmanAllison,vice
presidentofconsumerinsights,NielsenCanada.“Therearemyriad
factorsintheCanadianmarketthatarecurrentlycontributingtoa
declineinoptimism.Adropinconfidenceisnormalfollowingthe
holidayspendingseasonwhenthebillsstartrollingin,butthisyear
consumerswerealsoreelingfromtheeffectsofthecoldestwinterin
25years,whichledmanytospendmoretimeindoors.Exacerbatingthe
situationfurtherwasthedropinoilprices,whichledtosignificantjob
lossesinthecountry.Whileconsumersmaybesavingatthepump,the
costofmostotheressentialsisontherise,andinflationarypressures
stillplaguewallets.”
U.S. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO CLIMB
10-YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TREND IN NORTH AMERICA
THE GREATRECESSION YEARS
THE U.S. RETURNS TO PRE-RECESSION
CONFIDENCE
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2005
-Q1
2005
-Q3
2006
-Q1
2006
-Q3
2007
-Q1
2007
-Q3
2008
-Q1
2008
-Q3
2009
-Q1
2009
-Q2
2009
-Q3
2009
-Q4
2010
-Q1
2010
-Q2
2010
-Q3
2010
-Q4
2011-
Q1
2011-
Q2
2011-
Q3
2011-
Q4
2012
-Q1
2012
-Q2
2012
-Q3
2012
-Q4
2013
-Q1
2013
-Q2
2013
-Q3
2013
-Q4
2014
-Q1
2014
-Q2
2014
-Q3
2014
-Q4
2015
-Q1
UNITED STATES
CANADA GLOBAL AVG
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12015
16 QUARTER 1 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
LATIN AMERICA SHOWED DIVERGENT AND UNEVEN GROWTH AS CONFIDENCE IN BRAZIL CONTINUED TO DECLINE OfsevenLatinAmericanmarkets,Chile(87)andArgentina(75)showed
consumerconfidencegainsofsixandeightpoints,respectively,while
theregion’seconomicengine,Brazil(88),continuedtofallforthe
secondconsecutivequarter,asconfidencedeclinedsevenpointsto
thelowestlevelsince2009.ConfidenceinVenezuela(65)alsofellfive
points,whilePeru’sscore(99),thehighestintheregion,droppedtwo
pointsinthefirstquarter.ConfidenceinColombiaheldsteadyat94
fromfourth-quarter2014.
Sentimentabouttheoutlookforjobprospectsacrosstheregion
forthenext12monthsdeclinedfourpercentagepointsto27%,and
personalfinancessentimentfelltwopercentagepointsto56%,while
immediatespendingintentionsincreasedonepercentagepointto36%.
Recessionarysentimentgrewintheregion,risingfrom73%attheend
oflastyearto78%inthefirstquarter—thehighestofalltheregions.
InBrazil,sentimentaboutfuturejobprospectsdeclined10percentage
pointsto27%—anewlowforthecountry,whilepersonalfinances
sentimentdecreasedsixpercentagepointsto60%,thesecondlowest
levelin10years.ThenumberofBrazilianswhobelievedtheywerein
recessionincreasedto85%from73%thepreviousquarterandfrom55%
fromayearago.
17Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
“InBrazil,theresultsreflecttheuncertaintyoverthecountry’sability
toincreasegrowthratesintheshort-term,returntomoremoderate
inflationlevelsandavoidfurtherunemploymentincreases,”saidLuis
Arjona,countrymanager,NielsenBrazil.“Concernedwiththeoverall
economicenvironment,Brazilianconsumershavebecomemore
conservativewiththeirdisposableincome,reducingout-of-home
spending,whilebuyingmoreonplannedtripsatgrocerystores.They
arealsoincreasingtheshareofgroceryspendatdiscountstoresand
reducingspendonimpulsecategories.”
CONFIDENCE IN BRAZIL DECLINES TO LOWEST LEVEL IN 10 YEARS
10-YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TREND IN SELECT LATIN AMERICAN MARKETS
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2005
-Q1
2005
-Q3
2006
-Q1
2006
-Q3
2007
-Q1
2007
-Q3
2008
-Q1
2008
-Q3
2009
-Q1
2009
-Q2
2009
-Q3
2009
-Q4
2010
-Q1
2010
-Q2
2010
-Q3
2010
-Q4
2011-
Q1
2011-
Q2
2011-
Q3
2011-
Q4
2012
-Q1
2012
-Q2
2012
-Q3
2012
-Q4
2013
-Q1
2013
-Q2
2013
-Q3
2013
-Q4
2014
-Q1
2014
-Q2
2014
-Q3
2014
-Q4
2015
-Q1
BRAZIL MEXICO
GLOBAL AVG
THE GREATRECESSION YEARS
BRAZIL DROPS BELOW THE GLOBAL AVERAGE
IN 2014-2015
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12015
18 QUARTER 1 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
THE MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA REGION SHOWS SLOW BUT STABLE PROGRESSConsumerconfidenceincreasedinthreeoffivecountriesmeasuredin
theMiddleEast/Africaregioninthefirstquarter.At115,theUnitedArab
Emirateshadthehighestindexintheregion,anincreaseofonepoint
fromfourth-quarter2014.ConfidencealsoincreasedfivepointsinSaudi
Arabiato107andonepointinPakistanto102.Conversely,confidence
decreasedonepointinSouthAfricato87andremainedsteadyinEgypt
at90.
Intheregion,sentimentaboutjobprospectsedgeduponepercentage
pointto44%,whilepersonalfinancessentimentandimmediate
spendingintentionsremainedflatat60%and39%,respectively,from
fourth-quarter2014.JobconfidenceimprovedmostinEgypt,rising
threepercentagepointsto43%,whileinPakistan,thepersonalfinance
outlookrosefivepercentagepointsfromfourth-quarter2014.
RecessionarysentimentdeclinedinthreeoutoffiveMiddleEast/Africa
markets:EgyptandSouthAfricaeachdeclinedtwopercentagepointsto
79%and70%,respectively,andSaudiArabiadeclinedonepercentage
pointto43%.
Regionally,quarter-on-quarterdiscretionaryspendingandsaving
intentionsdecreasedorheldsteadyformostlifestylecategories.
Spendingintentionsforhomeentertainmentexpenses,buyingnew
clothesandtakingholidays/vacationsdeclined,whileintentionsfor
puttingmoneyintosavingsaccountsincreasedandthepercentagesfor
investingandsavingforretirementwereflatfromthepreviousquarter.
19Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
CONFIDENCE IN THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES REMAINS STRONG
10-YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TREND IN SELECT MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA MARKETS
120
140
100
80
60
40
20
0
2005
-Q1
2005
-Q3
2006
-Q1
2006
-Q3
2007
-Q1
2007
-Q3
2008
-Q1
2008
-Q3
2009
-Q1
2009
-Q2
2009
-Q3
2009
-Q4
2010
-Q1
2010
-Q2
2010
-Q3
2010
-Q4
2011-
Q1
2011-
Q2
2011-
Q3
2011-
Q4
2012
-Q1
2012
-Q2
2012
-Q3
2012
-Q4
2013
-Q1
2013
-Q2
2013
-Q3
2013
-Q4
2014
-Q1
2014
-Q2
2014
-Q3
2014
-Q4
2015
-Q1
UNITED ARABEMIRATES
EGYPTSOUTH AFRICA
GLOBAL AVG
AFTER SEVERALTUMULTUOUS
YEARS, EGYPT SHOWS SOME STABILIZATION
THE GREATRECESSION YEARS
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12015
20 QUARTER 1 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
CONFIDENCE RISES IN NIGERIA, BUT DECLINES IN KENYA AND GHANAConsumerconfidenceincreasedtwoindexpointsinNigeriainthe
firstquartertoascoreof129—thehighestscoreofthethreecountries
measuredinNielsen’smobilesurveyforsub-SaharanAfrica.Conversely,
confidencedecreasedninepointsinKenya(104)andthreepointsin
Ghana(99)fromfourth-quarter2014.
ThethreecountrieswereaddedtoNielsen’smeasurementof
consumerconfidenceinthefirstquarterof2014usingamobilesurvey
methodology,whichdiffersfromtheonlinemethodologyusedtoreport
consumerconfidenceandspendingintentionsfortheother60countries
outlinedinthisreport.Assuch,thethreesub-SaharanAfricanmarkets
arenotincludedintheglobalorMiddleEast/Africaaveragesdiscussed
throughoutthisreport.
InNigeria,sentimentforpersonalfinancesandimmediatespending
intentionsincreasedmarginallyinthefirstquarterbyoneandthree
percentagepoints,respectively,whilesentimentabouttheoutlookfor
jobsdeclinedtwopercentagepointsto62%.Conversely,sentimentfor
allthreeindicatorsdeclinedinbothKenyaandGhana.
InKenya,reversingtheincreasesreportedinfourth-quarter2014,the
sentimentabouttheoutlookforjobprospectsdroppedsignificantly,
decreasing13percentagepointsto49%.Sentimentforpersonal
finances(64%)andimmediatespendingintentions(32%)alsodeclined
fiveandninepercentagepoints,respectively,inthefirstquarter.In
Ghana,jobprospectsentimentdeclinedfourpercentagepointsto38%,
personalfinancessentimentdeclinedtwopercentagepointsto64%and
immediatespendingintentionsdeclinedonepercentagepointto35%
fromfourth-quarter2014.
Themajorityofrespondentsinthethreecountries(69%inKenya,67%
inGhanaand62%inNigeria)saidtheydidnothavesparecash,a
levelthatincreased10percentagepointsinKenyaandonepercentage
pointinNigeriafromfourth-quarter2014.Amongthosewhodidclaim
discretionaryfunds,whilesavingcontinuedtobeapriorityforthe
21Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
majority,intentionstoputmoneyintosavingsaccountsdeclined10
percentagepointsinNigeria(76%),sevenpercentagepointsinGhana
(78%)andsixpercentagepointsinKenya(83%)inthefirstquarter.
Discretionaryspendingintentionsforhomeimprovementprojectswere
thesecond-biggestpriorityamongrespondentsinallthreecountries.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE-THE-BASELINE FOR NIGERIA AND KENYA
YEAR-OVER-YEAR CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TREND IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA MARKETS
120
140
100
80
60
40
20
0
GHANA
OPTIMISM RUNSCONSISTENTLY
STRONG IN THESECOUNTRIES
NIGERIA
KENYA
Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015
BASELINE
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12015 Sub-SaharanAfricacountriesuseamobilemethodolgy
22 QUARTER 1 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
Source:InternetWorldStats,June30,2014
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Australia 94%
China 47%
HongKong 81%
India 20%
Indonesia 28%
Japan 86%
Malaysia 67%
NewZealand 95%
Philippines 41%
Singapore 80%
South Korea 92%
Taiwan 80%
Thailand 30%
Vietnam 44%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION MARKET INTERNET
PENETRATION
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Austria 87%
Belgium 90%
Bulgaria 59%
Croatia 71%
CzechRepublic 78%
Denmark 97%
Estonia 83%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Egypt 53%
Pakistan 15%
SaudiArabia 67%
SouthAfrica 52%
UnitedArabEmirates
96%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Canada 95%
UnitedStates 87%
MARKET MOBILE PENETRATION*
Ghana 99%
Kenya 68%
Nigeria 64%
COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
LATIN AMERICAEUROPE
Finland 97%
France 83%
Germany 87%
Greece 60%
Hungary 75%
Ireland 69%
Israel 76%
Italy 59%
Latvia 75%
Lithuania 69%
Netherlands 96%
Norway 95%
Poland 67%
Portugal 65%
Romania 51%
Russia 61%
Serbia 65%
Slovakia 82%
Slovenia 76%
Spain 75%
Sweden 95%
Switzerland 89%
Turkey 57%
UnitedKingdom 90%
Ukraine 42%
Argentina 75%
Brazil 54%
Chile 67%
Colombia 62%
Mexico 49%
Peru 42%
Venezuela 50%
*Basedonmobilehandsetsdividedbypopulation.Source:CIAWorldFactbook,2012
23Copyright © 2015 The Nielsen Company
ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending
IntentionswasconductedFeb.23-March13,2015andpolledmore
than30,000onlineconsumersin60countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,
Europe,LatinAmerica,theMiddleEast/AfricaandNorthAmerica.
Thesamplehasquotasbasedonageandsexforeachcountrybased
onitsInternetusersandisweightedtoberepresentativeofInternet
consumers.Ithasamarginoferrorof±0.6%.ThisNielsensurveyis
basedonlyonthebehaviorofrespondentswithonlineaccess.Internet
penetrationratesvarybycountry.Nielsenusesaminimumreporting
standardof60%Internetpenetrationoranonlinepopulationof10
millionforsurveyinclusion.TheChinaConsumerConfidenceIndex
iscompiledfromaseparatemixedmethodologysurveyamong3,500
respondentsinChina.Thesub-SaharanAfricancountriesinthisstudy
arecompiledfromaseparatemobilemethodologysurveyamong1,600
respondentsinGhana,KenyaandNigeria.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,
whichincludestheGlobalConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablished
in2005.
ABOUT NIELSEN NielsenN.V.(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalperformancemanagement
companythatprovidesacomprehensiveunderstandingofwhat
consumersWatchandBuy.Nielsen’sWatchsegmentprovidesmediaand
advertisingclientswithTotalAudiencemeasurementservicesacrossall
deviceswherecontent—video,audioandtext—isconsumed.TheBuy
segmentoffersconsumerpackagedgoodsmanufacturersandretailers
theindustry’sonlyglobalviewofretailperformancemeasurement.By
integratinginformationfromitsWatchandBuysegmentsandotherdata
sources,Nielsenprovidesitsclientswithbothworld-classmeasurement
aswellasanalyticsthathelpimproveperformance.Nielsen,anS&P500
company,hasoperationsinover100countriesthatcovermorethan90
percentoftheworld’spopulation.
Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.
Copyright©2015TheNielsenCompany.Allrightsreserved.Nielsenand
theNielsenlogoaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksofCZT/ACN
Trademarks,L.L.C.Otherproductandservicenamesaretrademarksor
registeredtrademarksoftheirrespectivecompanies.15/8827
24 QUARTER 1 2015 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT