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C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C ECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLDQUARTER 2, 2014
2014 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 2ND EDITION
2 QUARTER 2 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT2
• Globaljoboptimismreaches50percentforthefirsttimesince2007
• RegionalconfidenceincreasesinNorthAmericaandEurope,declinesinLatinAmericaandtheMiddleEast/AfricaandholdssteadyinAsia-Pacific
• Indiareclaimsthetopconsumerconfidencescorerankingof60countries
• U.S.confidencecontinuestoclimbtopre-recessionlevels
• ConfidenceinItaly,FranceandtheU.K.increase;Germanystabilizes
• China’sconfidenceremainsflat;Japanrecedestoyear-agolevels
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE MODESTLY ADVANCES AS OPTIMISM CONTINUES TO RISE IN MANY KEY MARKETS
Globalconsumerconfidenceincreasedoneindexpointto97inthe
secondquarterof2014,followingatwo-pointriseatthestartoftheyear.
Thisforwardmomentumcomesafterastagnant2013,duringwhich
confidencewasstubbornlystuckat94forthreeoutoffourquarters,and
ithasledtothehighestscoresincefirst-quarter2007.
TheNielsenconsumerconfidenceindexmeasuresperceptionsoflocal
jobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentions.
Consumerconfidencelevelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicate
degreesofoptimismandpessimism,respectively.
RegionalconsumerconfidenceincreasedinNorthAmerica(103)and
Europe(77),risingthreeandtwopoints,respectively,comparedto
thefirstquarter.ConfidencewashighestintheAsia-Pacificregion,
whichheldsteadyfromthefirstquarterwithascoreof106.Confidence
declinedintheLatinAmerica(90)andMiddleEast/Africaregions(93),
droppingthreepointsandonepoint,respectively.
3Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company 3
ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY
Thefindingsinthissurveyarebasedonrespondentswithonline
accessin60countries(unlessotherwisenoted).Whileanonline
surveymethodologyallowsfortremendousscaleandglobalreach,it
providesaperspectiveonlyonthehabitsofexistingInternetusers,
nottotalpopulations.Indevelopingmarketswhereonlinepenetration
isstillgrowing,audiencesmaybeyoungerandmoreaffluentthanthe
generalpopulationofthatcountry.Inaddition,surveyresponsesare
basedonclaimedbehaviorratherthanactualmetereddata.
Amongtheworld’sbiggesteconomies,consumerconfidenceincreased
comparedtothefirstquarterinItaly(51),withasix-pointjump;inthe
U.S.(104),withafour-pointincrease;intheU.K.(90),withathree-point
increase;andinFrance(60),withaonepointincrease.Meanwhile,
confidencedeclinedeightpointsinJapan(73)andthreepointsin
Germany(96).China’sconsumerconfidenceremainedflatatahigh111.
“BuoyantincreasesacrossconfidencemetricsinNorthAmericaand
steadygainswithinpartsofEuropestrikeapositivenotewithregard
toeconomicrecoveryinmaturemarkets,”saidDr.VenkateshBala,
chiefeconomistatTheCambridgeGroup,apartofNielsen.“Thekey
tocontinuedsustainedeconomicexpansion,however,willbefurther
strengtheningofthejobmarket,whichisvitalforincreasedconsumer
spending.”
TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending
Intentions,establishedin2005,measuresconsumerconfidence,
majorconcernsandspendingintentionsamongmorethan30,000
respondentswithInternetaccessin60countries.
Inthelatestroundofthesurvey,conductedMay12–30,2014,consumer
confidenceincreasedin52percentofmarketsmeasuredbyNielsen,
comparedto60percentinthefirstquarter.India(128)increased
sevenpointstoreportthehighestconsumerconfidenceindexscore,
surpassingIndonesia(123),whichpreviouslyheldthetopspotforfive
consecutivequarters.Portugalreportedthelowestconsumerconfidence
score(48),adeclineofthreepointscomparedtothepreviousquarter.
HongKong(103)andJapan(73)reportedthebiggestquarterlydeclines
ofeightpointseach.
4 QUARTER 2 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY
60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ2-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicatedegreesofoptimism/pessimism.
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q22014
-1+4
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85 AU
STRIA 85 RU
SSIA 85
MEXICO
85 AUSTRALIA
87 LITHUANIA
89 ISRAEL
ITALY 51
90 UNITED KINGDOM
SERBIA 51
92 CHILE
SOUTH KOREA 53
GREECE 55
93 MALAYSIA
HUNGARY 56
95 COLOMBIA
FRANCE
60
95 NORWAY
UKRAINE 61
96 GERMANY
SPAIN 62
98 VIETNAM
FINLAND 67
98 PERU
ARGENTINA 68
98 SINGAPORE
BULGARIA 69 99 NEW ZEALANDPOLAND 71 99 PAKISTAN
VENEZUELA 72
99 SWITZERLAND
SLOVAKIA 72
100 BRAZIL
JAPAN 73
102 CANADA
ROMANIA 73
102 SAUDI ARABIA
TAIWAN 75
103 HONG KONG
CZECH REPUBLIC 76
104 UNITED STATES
LATVIA
78
105 THAILAND
ESTONIA
79
106 D
ENMARK
BELGIU
M
80
109
UNITE
D ARAB EMIR
ATES
IREL
AND
81
111
CHINA
TURK
EY
81
120
PHIL
IPPI
NES
EGYP
T
81
123
IN
DON
ESIA
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LAN
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84
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128
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MORE CONFIDENT
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SLOVEN
IA49
-3
PORTUGAL
48
NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC
97GLOBAL
AVERAGE( +1 change from Q1-2014 )
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 60 Countries – 3-Month TrendQ2-2014 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index
Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism.
INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM
5Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TRENDQ2-2014 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
5
GLOBAL JOB OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO IMPROVEHalfofglobalrespondentsbelievedthejobmarketwouldbegoodorexcellentintheupcomingyear,a1percentage-pointincreasefromthefirstquarter.Whiletheincreasewasmarginal,itwasjustenoughtoreachthepre-recessionoutlookof50percent—alevelnotreachedinsevenyears.
Positiveperceptionsaboutlocaljobprospectsoverthenext12monthsincreasedinthesecondquarterineveryregionexceptLatinAmerica.ThebiggestquarterlysurgeinjoboptimismcamefromNorthAmerica,increasing8percentagepointsto46percent.Asia-Pacificrespondentsweremostoptimisticaboutemploymentopportunities:65percentbelievethatjobprospectsarefavorablefortheyearahead,upfrom64percentthepreviousquarter.
TheoutlookforfuturejobprospectsalsoincreasedintheMiddleEast/Africa(42%)andEurope(29%),rising2and1percentagepointsfromthefirstquarter,respectively.InLatinAmerica,thetrendwasdownward:36percentofrespondentsregisteredpositiveperceptionsofemploymentopportunities,comparedwith42percentinthefirstquarter.
“IntheU.S.,consistenttrendsconcerningnon-farmpayrollgrowthandstableunemploymentclaimsprovideawelcomecounterweighttotheunexpectedlylargedeclineinGDPgrowthinthefirstquarter,”saidBala.“Payrollgrowthisvisibleacrossarangeofsectors,whichisalsopositive.However,real-wagegrowthofworkershasbeenanemicsofar,andneedstopickupsubstantially,alongwithotherimprovementsinthelabormarket,inorderforconsumerspendingtoincreaseinabroad-basedway.”
Morethanhalf(56%)ofglobalrespondentsviewedtheirpersonalfinancespositively,aslightrisefromthepastthreeconsecutivequartersinwhichitheldsteadyat55percent.NorthAmericareportedthebiggestregionalincrease,with63percentofrespondentsfeelingsecureinmoneymattersoverthenext12months,upfrom59percentinthefirstquarter.LatinAmericareportedtheonlydeclineinthisscore,with60percentbelievingthestateoftheirfinanceswasgoodorexcellent,downfrom63percentinthefirstquarter.At39percent,Europeanrespondentswereleastconfidentaboutfinances.
6 QUARTER 2 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
GLOBAL JOB PROSPECTS REACH 50% FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVEN YEARS
PERCENT WHO BELIEVE JOB PROSPECTS WILL BE GOOD OR EXCELLENT IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2005
-Q1
2005
-Q3
2006
-Q1
2006
-Q3
2007
-Q1
2007
-Q3
2008
-Q1
2008
-Q3
2009
-Q1
2009
-Q2
2009
-Q3
2009
-Q4
2010
-Q1
2010
-Q2
2010
-Q3
2010
-Q4
2011-
Q1
2011-
Q2
2011-
Q3
2011-
Q4
2012
-Q1
2012
-Q2
2012
-Q3
2012
-Q4
2013
-Q1
2013
-Q2
2013
-Q3
2013
-Q4
2014
-Q1
2014
-Q2
50% 50%
21%HEIGHT OF THE GREAT RECESSION
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,Q22014
7Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
PERCENT WHO BELIEVE JOB PROSPECTS WILL BE GOOD OR EXCELLENT IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
COUNTRIES AT OR ABOVE THE BASELINE— PRE-RECESSION AND NOWIn2007,priortotheGreatRecession,25countriesboastedconsumer
confidencescoresatorabovetheoptimismbaselineof100index
points.Attheheightoftherecession(Q12009),onlytwocountries—
IndonesiaandDenmark—maintainedthatdistinction.
Fiveyearslater,12countrieshavemadetheslowclimbbacktoan
optimisticreading.Buttheregionalbalanceofcountrieshaschanged
dramatically.
In2007,Europedominatedthelistofcountrieswiththehighest
consumerconfidencescores,followedbycountriesinAsia-Pacific.
Today,DenmarkisthesoleEuropeancountrydeliveringaconfidence
scoreabovethebaseline,andAsia-Pacificholdsthemajoritystakeof
above-the-baselinecountries.
8 QUARTER 2 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE OPTIMISM IN THE ECONOMY
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,Q22014
PRE-RECESSION (Q3 2007)
Norway 135
India 133
Denmark 124
Australia 120
Indonesia 120
HongKong 118
Vietnam 117
NewZealand 115
Singapore 114
Canada 113UnitedArabEmirates 112
Sweden 110
Philippines 108
Ireland 108
Netherlands 105
Switzerland 105
Finland 104
Chile 104
Russia 103
Brazil 103
Poland 102
Malaysia 101
Spain 100
Argentina 100
UnitedStates 100
DURING RECESSION (Q1 2009)
Indonesia 104
Denmark 102
TODAY (Q2 2014)
India 128
Indonesia 123
Philippines 120
China 111UnitedArabEmirates 109
Denmark 106
Thailand 105
UnitedStates 104
HongKong 103
SaudiArabia 102
Canada 102
Brazil 100
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE
LATIN AMERICA
MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
COUNTRIES AT OR ABOVE THE BASELINE CONFIDENCE INDEX OF 100 BEFORE, DURING AND AFTER THE GREAT RECESSION
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
LEVELS ABOVE A BASELINE OF 100
INDICATE DEGREES OF OPTIMISM IN THE ECONOMY.
9Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
NORTH AMERICAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RISES U.S.consumerconfidenceincreasedfourindexpointsinthesecond
quartertoascoreof104,continuinganupwardtrendthatstartedin
first-quarter2013andhasregisteredan11-pointincreasesincethen.
ConfidencealsoincreasedinCanada,risingthreepointsto102inthe
secondquarterafterdeclinesoverseveralpreviousquarters.
AlmosthalfofAmericans(49%)believeditwasagood/excellent
timetospend,whichisthehighestlevelreportedsince2006andup
6percentagepointsfromthefirstquarterof2014(43%).Optimistic
perceptionsofjobprospectsandpersonalfinancesalsoroseinthe
secondquarter.Whiletheoutlookforjobs(46%)wasstillbelow
pre-recessionlevels(63%),thesentimentrepresentsasignificant
improvementfrom2009,whenitwasat20percent.Almosttwo-thirds
ofU.S.respondents(64%)saidtheirpersonalfinanceswereingood
order,ariseof5percentagepointsfromthefirstquarter.
“IntheU.S.,positivenewsforjob,housingandequitymarketsappears
tohavebuoyedthespiritsofAmericans,”saidJamesRusso,seniorvice
president,GlobalConsumerInsights,Nielsen.“Theretailenvironment
fornon-durablegoods,however,isstillcatchingup.Retaildollarsales
offast-movingconsumergoodsareup1.3percentinlatestsixmonths
endingJune.Consumersaremovingaheadslowly,andmarketersneed
toadjusttoanewconsumermindsetofrestraint,whichwilltaketimeto
reverse.”
InCanada,62percentofrespondentswereoptimisticaboutpersonal
finances,and46percentindicatedpositivebuyingintentions,up5
and4percentagepointsfromthefirstquarter,respectively.However,
theoutlookforjobstrendedslightlydownward,declining2percentage
pointsto50percent.
Intheregion,discretionaryspendingintentionsincreasedacross
mostactivities,whileintentionstosave,investandpayoffdebts
declined.Planstousesparecashforvacations,newclothesandhome
improvementprojectsincreased4percentagepointsfromthefirst
quarter.
COUNTRIES AT OR ABOVE THE BASELINE CONFIDENCE INDEX OF 100 BEFORE, DURING AND AFTER THE GREAT RECESSION
10 QUARTER 2 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
NORTH AMERICAN SPENDING INTENTIONS RISE
PERCENT WHO SAY NOW IS A GOOD/EXCELLENT TIME TO BUY THE THINGS WANTED AND NEEDED
42% 41% 43%
42%
46%
42% 43% 43% 43%
49%
Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014
CANADA UNITED STATES
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,Q22014
11Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
EUROPE CONTINUES A SLOW, STEADY CLIMB OUT OF RECESSION ConsumerconfidenceinEuropeincreasedin72percentofmarkets
measuredinthesecondquarter,withsixof32marketsreporting
declines.Thebiggestregionalincreasesofsixpointseachcompared
tofirst-quarter2014wereinDenmark(106),Belgium(80),Romania
(73)andItaly(51).Confidenceincreaseswerealsoreportedinthe
Netherlands(81),Ukraine(61)andCroatia(50),witheachcountryrising
fivepointscomparedtothefirstquarter.
“Italy’slatestconfidenceboost—thesecondconsecutivequarterof
risingoptimism—comesafteranewgovernmenttookeffectinFebruary
andinstitutedpoliciestofacethecrisis,”saidGiovanniFantasia,market
leader,NielsenItaly.“Retailsalesdatainthefirsthalfoftheyearare
showingsignsofenduranceinsomefoodandbeverageandpackaged
freshfoodcategories.Whilerecoveryremainsverymuchawork-in-
progress,consumersappearcautiouslyoptimisticaboutthefuture.”
Othernotableconfidenceimprovementsincludedayear-over-yearjump
of11pointsintheU.K.toascoreof90—thecountry’shighestlevel
since2007.Russia’sindexalsoincreasedforthreeconsecutivequarters
toascoreof85inthesecondquarter.France’sconfidenceroseforthe
secondconsecutivequarterto60.
“ShopperconfidenceintheU.K.hasreturnedtopre-recessionarylevels,
withhouseholdsnowfeelingfinanciallybetteroffandmorewillingto
spend,”saidChrisMorley,groupmanagingdirector,NielsenU.K.and
Ireland.“Overthelastyear,manymoreBritishconsumersarefeeling
positiveabouttheirjobprospects,withmorethanoneinthreenow
optimistic,comparedtojustoneinfourayearago.”
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,Q22014
Q2 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IMPROVED IN 72% OF MEASURED EUROPEAN MARKETS
Denmark
Switzerland
Germany
Norway
UnitedKingdom
Israel
Lithuania
Russia
Austria
Sweden
Turkey
Netherlands
Ireland
Belgium
Estonia
Latvia
CzechRepublic
Romania
Slovakia
Poland
Bulgaria
Finland
Spain
Ukraine
France
Hungary
Greece
Serbia
Italy
Croatia
Slovenia
Portugal
106 |
99 |
96 |
95 |
90 |
89 |
87 |
85 |
85 |
84 |
81 |
81 |
81 |
80 |
79 |
78 |
76 |
73 |
72 |
71 |
69 |
67 |
62 |
61 |
60 |
56 |
55 |
51 |
51 |
50 |
49 |
48 |
6
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3
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6
0
2
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6
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PERCENT WHO SAY NOW IS A GOOD/EXCELLENT TIME TO BUY THE THINGS WANTED AND NEEDED
INDEX
PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q1
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGE
12 QUARTER 2 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
“TheriseinRussia’sconsumerconfidenceprovidessomeindication
thatconsumersareincreasinglyshowingreadinesstospend,”saidIrina
Firstova,marketleader,NielsenRussia.“Thelong-termtrend,however,
isstillcautiousasRussianscontinuetomonitorinflationandpersonal
finances.Assuch,promotionalandretailerloyaltyprogramsarevitalin
ordertomaintainandattractnewconsumers.”
Germany’sindexscoredeclinedthreepointstoasolid96aftersteady
increaseswerereportedoverthepasttwoyears.Othercountriesthat
declinedinthesecondquarterwereIreland(81),Austria(85),Portugal
(48)andSwitzerland(99).
“DespiteGermany’sslightconfidencedeclineinthesecondquarter,the
indexisstabilizingatahighlevel,andjobprospectsanddiscretionary
spendingintentionsarestillgood,”saidIngoSchier,managingdirector,
NielsenGermany.
Jobprospectscontinuedtoimprovethroughouttheregioninthesecond
quarter,albeitslowly.Onlythreecountriesreportedanoptimistic
outlookabove50percent:Switzerland(64%),Germany(58%)and
Denmark(53%).Themostnotablejoboptimismincreasescompared
tofirst-quarter2014camefromDenmark,up9percentagepoints;
Israel,up6percentagepoints;andRomania,up5percentagepoints.
Discretionaryspendingremainedvirtuallyflatacrossallspending
categoriesmeasuredinthesecondquarter.
13Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
CONFIDENCE IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION HOLDS STEADYConsumerconfidenceinAsia-Pacificremainedflatfromthefirstquarter
at106.India(128)postedthebiggestquarterlyindexincreaseofthe60
countriesmeasuredwithariseofsevenpoints,exceedingIndonesia’s
score,whichdeclinedonepointto123.Confidencealsoincreasedinthe
Philippines(120),SouthKorea(53)andMalaysia(93)andheldsteadyin
Chinaforathirdconsecutivequarterat111.
“ConsumersinIndiahaveindicatedincreasedlevelsofconfidencein
thesecondquarterwhenthecountry’sgeneralelectionsweretaking
placeinthecountry,”saidPiyushMathur,president,NielsenIndia.
“Thisbuoyancyisyettotranslateintoincreasedconsumptionacross
sectors.Despitetheongoinginflationarytrendandexpectationsof
apoormonsoon,consumersarelikelytoopentheirpursestrings
asweheadintothefestiveseasoninresponsetosavvymarketing
stimulus.Theannualbudgetannouncedbythenewgovernment
revealsapositiveoutlookforbusiness,andweexpectthistoreflect
inconsumersentimentinsubsequentquartersaswell.Thebudget,
whichincorporatesimpetusandincentivesforrural,infrastructure,
manufacturing,aswellasbetterincometaxexemptionsforconsumers,
shouldbodewell,butitwillneedtobewatchedclosely.”
“InChina,percapitaspendingcontinuestogrowwiththeincreaseof
disposableincomeandasthegovernmenttransformsthecountry’s
investment-drivengrowthstrategytoonethatisconsumptionled,”said
YanXuan,presidentofNielsenGreaterChina.“Deepeningurbanization
servesasanotherkeydriverbehindthehighChineseconsumer
confidencelevel.HalfofChina’s1.3billionpeoplehavemovedtotowns
andcities,andtheurbanizationrateisstilllowcomparedwiththeU.S.
andEurope.Thistranslatestomillionsofnewemergingconsumerswith
cashtospendinthecomingdecade.Theseconsumerssharethesame
aspirationandpursuitforabetterlifeastheexistingmiddleclass,and
theywillputtheirincreasingdisposableincometoworkforthem.”
India
Indonesia
Philippines
China
Thailand
HongKong
NewZealand
Singapore
Vietnam
Malaysia
Australia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
128
123
120
111
105
103
99
98
98
93
85
75
73
53
Q2 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECLINED IN 64% OF MEASURED ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12014
7
-1
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0
-3
-8
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INDEX
PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q1
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGEINDEX
PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q1
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGEINDEX
PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q1
INCREASE
DECREASENO CHANGE
14 QUARTER 2 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
ThebiggestregionalconfidencedeclineswereinJapan(73)andHong
Kong(103),whichdecreasedeightpointseachinthesecondquarter.
ConfidenceinAustralia(85)fellfourpointscomparedtothefirst
quarter,itsfourthstraightquarterlydecrease.
“Japan’slatestconsumerconfidencedeclinedaftertwoconsecutive
quartersofincreases,”saidToshihiroFukutoku,managingdirector,
NielsenJapan.“AfterasalestaxriseinApril,averagecombinedsales
atthethreelargestdepartmentstoreretailersshoweddeclinesof10
percentinApriland6percentinMayafterastrong30percentincrease
inMarch.Someconsidertheseconsumptionsetbackstobetemporary,
asgovernmentandbankeasingpolicieslooktoreversetheeffectsofthe
taxchange.”
“InHongKong,retailsalesfiguresreportedbythegovernmentshowed
adeclineof9.8percentinApril,thebiggestdropinfiveyears,”saidEva
Leung,managingdirector,NielsenHongKongandMacau.“Aslowdown
inmainlandvisitors,believedtoberelatedtotightenedcontrols,islikely
affectingthesalesdecline.Consumersarealsomoreconcernedabout
jobsecurity,whichisreflectedinajoboutlookdeclineof8percentage
pointsinthelatestNielsenconsumerconfidenceresults.”
Australia’ssecond-quarterindexdropbringsitsconfidencelevelto
thecountry’slowestscoreonrecord(sinceNielsenbeganmeasuring
consumerconfidencein2005).Justone-thirdofrespondentswere
optimisticaboutjobprospects—thelowestlevelsince2009.Scores
forpersonalfinances(48%)andintentionstobuy(37%)inthenext12
monthsalsodeclined2and4percentagepoints,respectively.
“InAustralia,despiteaperiodofrelativelylowinflationandmodest
GDPgrowth,consumerconfidencehasbeenonthedeclineoverthelast
year,”saidChrisPercy,managingdirector,NielsenPacific.“Realwage
growthisindeclineandAustraliansaretighteningtheirbeltsatretail.In
theshort-term,spendingrestraintisexpectedtocontinueastheimpact
ofthe2014federalbudget,whichreducesbenefits,takeseffect.Retailer
strategiesthataddressconsumerneedsforlow-costalternativeswillbe
betterpositionedforsuccess.”
DiscretionarysavingintentionsintheAsia-Pacificregiondecreased
acrossallcategoriesmeasured,withthebiggestdeclinesforsaving
(62%)andinvesting(34%),whichdropped5and4percentagepoints
comparedtothefirstquarter,respectively.Spendingintentions
decreasedineverycategoryexceptfornewtechnologyproducts,which
increased2percentagepointsto37percent.
15Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
THE JOB OUTLOOK IN LATIN AMERICA RETREATSConfidenceintheLatinAmericaregiondeclinedforthesecond
consecutivequartertoanindexscoreof90inthesecondquarter,as
indexscoresfellinsixofthesevencountriesmeasured.Colombia
reportedtheonlyregionalconfidenceincrease,climbingtwopointsto
95,comparedtothefirstquarter.Brazil(100),Chile(92)andVenezuela
(72)declinedsixpointseachinthesecondquarter.Alsoreporting
declineswerePeru(98)andArgentina(68),whichdroppedthreepoints
each,andMexico(85),whichfellonepoint.
“InBrazil,whilehouseholdincomecontinuestogrowandthe
unemploymentrateremainslow,inflationforfoodandbeveragesand
highcreditinterestratescontinue,”saidEduardoRagasol,country
manager,NielsenBrazil.“Thereisasenseofgoodwillandpride
associatedwithhostingtheFIFAWorldCup,butthecountryisalsoin
themidstofapresidentialcampaign,andconsumersarecautiousabout
thefuture.”
Thejoboutlookdeclinedinallsevencountries,withChiledropping10
percentagepoints;Brazil,7points;andArgentina,6points.Thosewho
feltmiredinrecessionincreasedfrom62percentinthefirstquarterto
67percentinthelatestperiod.Cash-strappedLatinAmericansreined
inspendingintentionsacrossallcategoriesmeasuredinthesecond
quarter.
Q2 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECLINED IN ALL BUT ONE MEASURED LATIN AMERICAN MARKET
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,Q22014
BRAZIL
PERU
CHILE
COLOMBIA
MEXICO
ARGENTINA
VENEZUELA
100
98
92
95
85
72
68
-6
-3
-6
2
-6
-3
-1
INDEXPERCENTAGE
POINT CHANGE FROM Q1
INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE
16 QUARTER 2 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
MIXED CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RESULTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA REGIONConfidencewashighandabovethebaselineintheUnitedArab
Emirates(109indexpoints)—thehighestlevelintheregion—despite
decliningfivepointsinthesecondquarter.Egypt(81)alsoreporteda
dropofsixpoints,comparedtothefirstquarter.SouthAfricaposted
theonlyregionalconfidenceincrease,climbingthreepointsto85,and
confidenceheldsteadyinSaudiArabia(102)andPakistan(99).
“IntheUnitedArabEmirates,consumerconfidencereturnedto2013
levelsafterafour-pointincreaseinthefirstquarter,”saidArslanAshraf,
managingdirector,NielsenArabianPeninsula.“Inadditiontorising
rentandutilitybills,jobsecuritydeclinedslightly,whichimpacted
purchasingintentamongmanyconsumerswhoarealreadycautious
aboutspending.”
Regionally,quarter-on-quarterdiscretionaryspendingintentionsheld
steady,withmarginalimprovementsforbuyingnewclothes,buyingnew
technologyproductsandconductinghomeimprovementprojects.A
slightpullbackforsavingandinvestingintentionswasreportedinthe
secondquarter.OnefourthofMiddleEast/Africarespondentssaidthey
hadnosparecash,ariseof3percentagepointsfromthefirstquarter.
Q2 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA MARKETS
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,Q22014
-5
0
0
-6
3
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
SAUDI ARABIA
PAKISTAN
EGYPT
SOUTH AFRICA
109
102
99
81
85
INDEXPERCENTAGE
POINT CHANGE FROM Q1
INCREASE DECREASE NO CHANGE
17Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
CONFIDENCE RISES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAConfidenceincreasedinthesecondquarterinallthreesub-Saharan
Africanmarketsmeasured—Nigeria,KenyaandGhana.Nigeria’s
consumerconfidencescorewashighest,risingonepointto121,and
Ghana’sscoreincreasedthemost,jumpingsixpointsto103.Kenyaalso
reportedanoptimistic,above-the-baselineindexof111,anincreaseof
onepointinthesecondquarter.
ThethreecountrieswereaddedtoNielsen’smeasurementof
consumerconfidenceinthefirstquarterof2014usingamobilesurvey
methodology,whichdiffersfromtheonlinemethodologyusedtoreport
consumerconfidenceandspendingintentionsfortheother60countries
outlinedinthisreport.Assuch,thesethreesub-SaharanAfricanmarkets
arenotincludedintheglobalorMiddleEast/Africaaveragesdiscussed
throughoutthisreport.
Theoutlookforjobprospectsincreased1percentagepointeachin
Nigeria(53%)andGhana(43%),butdeclined3percentagepointsin
Kenya(54%).Eighty-onepercentofNigerianrespondentswereconfident
abouttheirpersonalfinances,butjustunderhalf(48%)believednow
wasagoodtimetospend.InKenya,66percentofrespondentsbelieved
moneymattersweregoodorexcellent,and42percentwereconfidentin
theircurrentspendingcapacity—ariseof6percentagepointsfromthe
firstquarter.Likewise,inGhana,67percentwereoptimisticabouttheir
finances(animprovementfrom62%),and36percentofrespondents
wereconfidentaboutspending.
Whilethemajorityofrespondentsinthethreecountries(66%inKenya,
64%inGhanaand59%inNigeria)didnothavesparecash,Ghana
reportedtheonlyimprovement,witha7percentagepointimprovement
fromthefirstquarter.Amongthosewhodidhavediscretionaryfunds,
savingwasapriorityfor90percentinKenya,79percentinNigeria
and75percentinGhana,followedbyspendingonhomeimprovement
projects(74%inNigeria,70%inKenyaand66%inGhana).
Otherspendingintentionsinclude:investinginstocks(Kenya,67%;
Ghana,48%;Nigeria,56%),buyingnewtechnologyproducts(Nigeria,
49%;Kenya,43%;Ghana,38%),spendingonout-of-homeentertainment
(Nigeria,44%;Kenya,42%;Ghana,27%)andbuyingnewclothes
(Kenya,69%;Nigeria,42%;Ghana,31%).
18 QUARTER 2 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IN MEASURED SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN MARKETS
GHANA
KENYA
NIGERIA
97
110
120
103
111
121
Q1 2014 Q2 2014
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,Q22014
19Copyright © 2014 The Nielsen Company
Source:InternetWorldStats,June30,2012
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Australia 89%
China 40%
HongKong 75%
India 11%
Indonesia 22%
Japan 80%
Malaysia 61%
NewZealand 88%
Philippines 32%
Singapore 75%
South Korea 83%
Taiwan 75%
Thailand 30%
Vietnam 34%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION MARKET INTERNET
PENETRATION
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Austria 80%
Belgium 81%
Bulgaria 51%
Croatia 71%
CzechRepublic 73%
Denmark 90%
Estonia 78%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Egypt 36%
Pakistan 15%
SaudiArabia 49%
SouthAfrica 17%
UnitedArabEmirates
71%
MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION
Canada 83%
UnitedStates 78%
MARKET MOBILE PENETRATION*
Ghana 99%
Kenya 68%
Nigeria 64%
COUNTRIES IN THE STUDY
ASIA-PACIFIC
EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST / AFRICA
NORTH AMERICA
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
LATIN AMERICAEUROPE
Finland 89%
France 80%
Germany 83%
Greece 53%
Hungary 65%
Ireland 77%
Israel 70%
Italy 58%
Latvia 72%
Lithuania 65%
Netherlands 93%
Norway 97%
Poland 65%
Portugal 55%
Romania 44%
Russia 48%
Serbia 56%
Slovakia 79%
Slovenia 72%
Spain 67%
Sweden 93%
Switzerland 82%
Turkey 46%
UnitedKingdom 84%
Ukraine 34%
Argentina 66%
Brazil 46%
Chile 59%
Colombia 60%
Mexico 37%
Peru 37%
Venezuela 41%
*Basedonmobilehandsetsdividedbypopulation.Source:CIAWorldFactbook,2012
20 QUARTER 2 2014 - GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE REPORT
ABOUT NIELSEN NielsenHoldingsN.V.(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalinformationand
measurementcompanywithleadingmarketpositionsinmarketing
andconsumerinformation,televisionandothermediameasurement,
onlineintelligenceandmobilemeasurement.Nielsenhasapresencein
approximately100countries,withheadquartersinNewYork,USAand
Diemen,theNetherlands.
Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.
Copyright©2014TheNielsenCompany.Allrightsreserved.Nielsenand
theNielsenlogoaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksofCZT/ACN
Trademarks,L.L.C.Otherproductandservicenamesaretrademarksor
registeredtrademarksoftheirrespectivecompanies.14/7896
ABOUT THE NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpending
IntentionswasconductedMay12–30,2014andpolledmorethan
30,000onlineconsumersin60countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,
Europe,LatinAmerica,theMiddleEast/AfricaandNorthAmerica.
Thesamplehasquotasbasedonageandsexforeachcountrybased
onitsInternetusersandisweightedtoberepresentativeofInternet
consumers.Ithasamarginoferrorof±0.6percent.ThisNielsen
surveyisbasedonlyonthebehaviorofrespondentswithonline
access.Internetpenetrationratesvarybycountry.Nielsenusesa
minimumreportingstandardof60percentInternetpenetrationor
anonlinepopulationof10millionforsurveyinclusion.TheChina
ConsumerConfidenceIndexiscompiledfromaseparatemixed
methodologysurveyamong3,500respondentsinChina.Thesub-
SaharanAfricancountriesinthisstudyarecompiledfromaseparate
mobilemethodologysurveyamong1,600respondentsinGhana,Kenya
andNigeria.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,whichincludestheGlobal
ConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablishedin2005.