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1Copyright © 2016 The Nielsen Company
CONSUMER CONFIDENCECONCERNS AND SPENDING INTENTIONS AROUND THE WORLD
Quarter 1, 2016
2016 Consumer ConfidenCe series | 1st edition
2 Quarter 1 2016 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
• Globalconsumerconfidenceedgeduponeindexpointto98fromthefourthquarterof2015,asunevengrowthtrendspersistedinmanyadvancedanddevelopingeconomies.
• U.S.consumerconfidenceshowedresilienceamidafairlyrobustjobmarketandariseinconsumerspendingintentions—butalsoariseinintenttopaydowndebts.
• IndiaandIndonesiastoodoutasbuoyantgrowthmarketsinAsia,whileconfidencedeclinedinHongKongandJapan.
• InEurope,themajorityofadvancedeconomies(butnotSpainandPortugal),postedconfidencedeclinesinthemidstofheightenedgeopoliticaluncertainty.
• InLatinAmerica,confidencescoresdeclinedinsixofsevenmarkets,aslowcommoditypricesandpoliticalinstabilityprevailed.
• ConfidencelevelswererelativelyhighinSaudiArabiaandtheUAE,buttheseoil-reliantcountriessawaconfidencedeclineamidstcontinuedweaknessofoilprices.
2
FIRSt-qUaRtER CONSUMER CONFIDENCE lEvElS REFlECtED DIvERgENt gROwth tRENDS aROUND thE glObE
Globalconsumerconfidenceremainedstableinthefirstquarterand
belowtheoptimismbaselinescoreof100,edginguponeindexpointto
98.Thescorereflectedmixedconfidencelevelsreportedineveryregion.
3Copyright © 2016 The Nielsen Company 3
About the GlobAl Survey MethodoloGy
Thefindingsinthissurveyarebased
onanonlinemethodologyin63
countries.Whileanonlinesurvey
methodologyallowsfortremendous
scaleandglobalreach,itprovides
aperspectiveonlyonthehabitsof
existingInternetusers,nottotal
populations.Indevelopingmarkets
whereonlinepenetrationisstill
growing,audiencesmaybeyounger
andmoreaffluentthanthegeneral
populationofthatcountry.Three
Sub-SaharanAfricancountries
(Ghana,KenyaandNigeria)utilizea
mobilesurveymethodologyandare
notincludedintheglobalorMiddle
East/Africaaveragesdiscussed
throughoutthisreport.Inaddition,
surveyresponsesarebasedon
claimedbehavior,ratherthanactual
metereddata.Culturaldifferences
inreportingsentimentarelikely
factorsinthemeasurement
ofeconomicoutlookacross
countries.Thereportedresultsdo
notattempttocontrolorcorrect
forthesedifferences;therefore,
cautionshouldbeexercisedwhen
comparingacrosscountriesand
regions,particularlyacrossregional
boundaries.
InEurope,forexample,confidencedeclinedin17marketsandrose
in11inthefirstquarter,asbothadvancedanddevelopingmarkets
grappledwithissuesrangingfrompersistentlyhighunemployment,to
geopoliticaltensions,suchastherefugeecrisisandtheBrexitdebate—a
U.K.referenduminJunetoremainwithinorleavetheEuropeanUnion.
SimilarvariancesinconsumerconfidencescoreswereseeninAsia-
Pacific,whereconfidencedeclinedineightmarketsandroseinfive.In
Africa/MiddleEast,confidencedeclinedinfourmarketsandincreased
intwo,andinNorthAmerica,confidenceroseintheU.S.butdeclinedin
Canada.InLatinAmerica,confidencedeclinedinsixofsevenmeasured
markets.
“Whiletheglobalconsumerconfidenceindexhasbeenlargely
unchangedoverthepastseveralquarters,beneaththatweseeafair
amountofvariationintheconfidenceofindividualcountries,”said
LouiseKeely,seniorvicepresident,Nielsen,andpresident,TheDemand
Institute.“While11countriesoutof61sawtheirconfidenceincrease
fiveormorepointsrelativetoayearago,21sawconfidencefallfive
ormorepointscomparedtothefirstquarterof2015.Thereisnoone
causebehindtheserisesandfallsinconfidence;thereasonsaremarket-
specific.Inmanyoil-exportingcountries,confidenceisdownrelative
toayearagoasoilpricesfell—eventhoughoilpriceshaveincreased
slightlyinearly2016.Atthesametime,insomeEuropeanmarketssuch
asSpainandPortugalconfidenceisupmarkedlyfromayearago,as
unemploymentrateshavefallenandconsumerpriceinflationhasnot
yetpickedup.”
Inthelatestonlinesurvey,conductedMarch1-23,2016,consumer
confidenceincreasedin33%ofmeasuredmarkets(20of61markets),
comparedwith43%ofmeasuredmarketsshowinganincreaseinthe
fourthquarterof2015.Amongtheworld’slargesteconomies,theU.S.
consumerconfidencescorewas110,remainingatorabovetheoptimism
baselinefornineconsecutivequarters.Confidencelevelsdeclinedfrom
thepreviousquarterinChina(105,-2pts),Germany(97,-1pt),theU.K.
(97,-4pts)andJapan(73,-6pts).
TheNielsenConsumerConfidenceIndexmeasuresperceptionsoflocal
jobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentions.
Consumerconfidencelevelsaboveandbelowabaselineof100indicate
degreesofoptimismandpessimism,respectively.TheNielsenGlobal
SurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions,established
in2005,measuresconsumerconfidence,majorconcernsandspending
intentionsamongmorethan30,000respondentswithInternetaccessin
63countries1.
1BelarusandKazakhstanwereaddedtotheGlobalSurveyinthefirstquarterof2016.
4 Quarter 1 2016 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
GlobAl CoNSuMer CoNFIdeNCe Survey
63 Countries – 3-Month trend Q1-2016 nielsen ConsuMer ConfidenCe index*
*SurveyisbasedonrespondentswithInternetaccess.Chinasurveyresultsreflectamixedmethodology.Indexlevelsaboveandbelow100indicate
degreesofoptimism/pessimism.
**BelarusandKazakhstanarenewmarketsinQ1-2016.
+2+10
+1-2
-5
-9
-2
+1
-4
0
-1
-4
0
+7
-4
-6
-1
-2
-5
-7
-6
-11
0-3
-13-1
-3-11+4+4+1 +4
+2
-2-4
+1
+5+1
+7
-13
-7
+2
-2
-15
-6
+5
+2
-10
+2
-11
-2
0-1
-1
83 RO
MAN
IA 83 CO
LOM
BIA 83
AUSTRIA 84
MO
ROCCO
85 NETHERLANDS
86 MEXICO
SLOVENIA 60
86 SWEDEN
VENEZUELA 60
88 HONG KONG
SERBIA 61
HUNGARY 61
88 SINGAPORE
RUSSIA 63
89 AUSTRALIA
FINLAND
63
91 PERU
FRANCE 64
91 SWITZERLAND
CROATIA 69
92 ISRAEL
PORTUGAL 71
93 CANADA
JAPAN 73
95 IRELANDKAZAKHSTAN** 73 96 TURKEY
ESTONIA 74
97 CZECH REPUBLIC
BRAZIL 74
97 UNITED KINGDOM
SPAIN 74
97 GERMANY
SOUTH AFRICA 75
99 NEW ZEALAND
ARGENTINA 75
104 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
TAIWAN 76
104 PAKISTAN
LATVIA 77
104 SAUDI ARABIA
BULGARIA
77
105 THAILAND
EGYPT 78
105
DENMARK
NORWAY
78
105
CHIN
A
LITH
UANIA
79
109
VIET
NAM
MAL
AYSI
A
79
110
UNIT
ED ST
ATES
SLO
VAKI
A
80
117
IND
ON
ESIA
CHIL
E
80
POLA
ND
82
BELG
IUM
8
2
-2
ITALY 59
+2
119
PH
ILIP
PIN
ES
MORE CONFIDENT
0
GREECE53
BELARUS**50
NORTH AMERICA LATIN AMERICA EUROPE AFRICA, MIDDLE EAST ASIA-PACIFIC
98 ( +1 change from Q4-2015 )
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY – 63 Countries – 3-Month TrendQ1-2016 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index*
-2
UKRAIN
E
GLOBALAVERAGE
46
-4
-2
SOU
TH KO
REA44
COUNTRY —INDEX
+3
134
IN
DIA
*Survey is based on respondents with Internet access. China survey results reflect a mixed methodology. Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism. **Belarus and Kazakhstan are new markets in Q1-2016.
LESS C
ONFIDENT
INDEXES ABOVE 100 INDICATE OPTIMISM
5Copyright © 2016 The Nielsen Company
63 Countries – 3-Month trend Q1-2016 nielsen ConsuMer ConfidenCe index*
5
IN NORth aMERICa, U.S. CONFIDENCE ShOwED RESIlIENCEInNorthAmerica,confidenceremainedstrongintheU.S.at110,maintaininganoptimisticlevelformorethantwoyears.MorethanhalfofU.Srespondentswereconfidentthatpersonalfinances(68%),immediatespendingintentions(56%)andjobprospects(52%)wouldbegoodorexcellentinthenext12months—ariseofeightpercentagepoints,threepercentagepointsandsevenpercentagepoints,respectively,fromthepreviousquarter.Discretionaryspendingintentionsalsoshowedanuptickinthefirstquarter,risingeightpercentagepointsforpayingdebts(33%),sevenpercentagepointsforout-of-homeentertainmentexpenses(21%)andfivepercentagepointsforretirementsavings(20%).
“TheU.S.economycontinuestobedrivenbyconsumers,”saidKeely.“Enoughjobsarebeingaddedthatunemploymentisfallingandtheparticipationrateisfinallyrising,andwagegrowthissound.U.S.consumersentimentisconsistentwithrecentspendinggrowthandarobusthousingmarketthatresultfromstrongerlabormarkets.Still,confidenceissubjecttoinfluencebyoverallpoliticalandeconomicvolatilitythatAmericansexperience:TheU.S.isinthemidstofapresidentialelectioncycleandthereisglobaleconomicuncertaintyaswellasrecentterrorismconcerns.WecontinuetowatchAmericanconsumerconfidencelevelsclosely.”
Meanwhile,confidencedeclinedsixpointsinCanadato93,asanoptimisticjoboutlookdeclinedninepercentagepointsto37%—thelowestlevelforthecountrysince2009.Favorableperceptionsaboutpersonalfinancesdeclinedtwopercentagepointsto56%,andimmediatespendingintentionsdeclinedfourpercentagepointsto37%fromthepreviousquarter.
“Canada’sunemploymentlevelisat7.1%,up0.3pointsfromlastyear,andjobcreationisshiftingfromthewesttoeasternCanada,astheeconomyadjuststotheimpactofasofteningoilindustry,”saidCarmanAllison,vicepresident,NielsenConsumerInsights.“ThelowCanadiandollarandrisingfoodpricescontinuetoaffectconsumerpurchasingpower,asalargeportionofgoods(especiallyfreshfruitsandvegetables)areimportedfromtheU.S.,andconsumersareadjustingtohigherpricesbymakingtrade-offs.Forexample,beefpriceshaverisen15%,resultinginan8%volumedeclineinbeefconsumption,asconsumersshifttolessexpensivekindsofmeatsuchaspork,chickenandsausages.Despiteeconomicuncertainty,however,consumerpackaged-goodsdollarsaleshavereachedafive-yearhigh,ending2015up3.4%,drivenprimarilybyrisingprices.”
6 Quarter 1 2016 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
SpAre CASh SpeNdING/SAvING INteNtIoNS
plANS to pAy debtS ANd SAve For retIreMeNt INCreASed IN both CouNtrIeS
PerCentage-Point differenCe from Q4 2015
PerCentage-Point differenCe from Q4 2015
CaNaDaUNItED StatES
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12016
savings
new Clothes
retirement
Paying debts/Credit Cards
home imProvements
new teChnology ProduCts
holidays/vaCations
out-of-home entertainment
investing
-1
+3
+5
+8
N/C
+3
-4
+7
-1
+4
-1
+2
+3
+1
-1
-1
N/C
+2
43%
21%
20%
32%
21%
16%
28%
17%
14%
44%
26%
20%
33%
25%
18%
41%
21%
14%
7Copyright © 2016 The Nielsen Company
IN wEStERN EUROpE, CONCERNS abOUt tERRORISM aND IMMIgRatION SEEM tO bE wEIghINg ON CONSUMER CONFIDENCEAmongadvancedmarketsinEurope,confidencedeclinedfourpointsin
theU.K.(97)andonepointinGermany(97)fromthepreviousquarter,
asafavorableoutlookforjobsinthenext12monthsworsenedinboth
countries.Jobprospectsentimentdeclinedfourpercentagepointsinthe
U.K.(41%)andthreepercentagepointsinGermany(55%).
“Terrorismandimmigrationconcernstoppedthelistofworriesfor
respondentsinbothcountriesandmaybedepressingconsumer
confidencealongwithconcernsaboutapossibleBrexit,despitethe
strongEuropeanGDPgrowthinthefirstquarterof2016,”saidKeely.
“Theselevelsofconcernsarerecentphenomena,relatedtopolitical
eventsinEurope.Theyaresubjecttosomevolatilityquartertoquarter
andwewillmonitorwhethertheypersistineclipsingeconomic
concerns.”
InGermany,respondentswhosaidterrorismwastheirbiggestor
second-biggestconcernincreasedninepercentagepointsto32%from
thefourthquarter,whilethepercentageconcernedaboutimmigration
declinedfivepercentagepointsto22%.Thetrendwasoppositeinthe
U.K.:Terrorismwasaconcernfor22%ofrespondents,adeclineof10
percentagepointsfromthepreviousquarter,butimmigrationconcerns
increasedthreepercentagepointsto25%.
8 Quarter 1 2016 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
“IntheU.K.,theoverallconfidencelevelremainshighandhasbeen
onanupwardtrajectoryforsometimethanksinparttolowerinflation
andinterestrates,astronghousingmarket,andhigherlevelsof
employment,wagesanddisposableincome,”saidSteveSmith,market
leader,NielsenU.K.andIreland.“Inthemostrecentperiod,however,
we’veseenaslightdeclinewithpossiblecontributingfactorssuch
asrecentterroristattacks,aloomingU.K.referenduminJuneonEU
membership,agovernmentreviewofin-workbenefitsforlower-paid
workersandunaffordablehousingforyoungpeople.”
“InGermany,consumerconfidenceshowedaslightsetback,but
Germansremainoptimisticaboutthefuture,aspositivelabormarket
developmentscontinueandpricesarestable,”saidIngoSchier,
managingdirector,NielsenGermany.“Nevertheless,recenteventsin
Europehaveleftamark.Terrorism,immigrationandcrimeareamong
thebiggestconcernsforGermans,whichmayhaveanegativeimpacton
consumerconfidenceinthemediumorlongterm,buttheinfluenceis
notyetapparentintheconfidencescore.”
InFrance,confidencedeclined10pointsto64,andinItaly,itwent
downtwopointsto59,asjobprospectsentimentdeteriorated.Inboth
countries,only12%saidjobprospectsweregoodorexcellentinthe
yearahead—afallof10percentagepointsinFranceandsixpercentage
pointsinItalyfromthepreviousquarter.Thisoccurreddespite
particularlystrongGDPgrowthinFranceinthefirstquarterof2016.
Terrorismconcernsalsoweighedheavilyformanyinbothcountries;the
percentageexpressingconcernrosetonewhighsinFrance(35%)andin
Italy(22%).
“InFrance,theunemploymentratehasbeenontherisesince2007-
2008,althoughthelatestmonthshaveshownbothupanddown
movement(itwasup1.1%inFebruaryanddown1.7%inMarch),”said
LaurentZeller,managingdirector,NielsenFrance.“Mostrecently,
however,therehavebeentoughdiscussionsaboutthe“ElKhomri”Law,
namedfortheLaborMinister,whichhaslikelyaffectedjobprospect
sentiment.Thishotlycontestedlaborbillaimstoincreasetheflexibility
ofwork-weekhours,andithasgenerateddebatesacrossthecountry,
sparkingsocialmobilizationamongunionsandstudents.Onapositive
note,fast-movingconsumergoodssalesgrowthremainssolid.”
Otheradvancedmarketsintheregionhavebuckedthedownwardtrend.
ConfidencescoresinSpain(74)andPortugal(71)remainedatlow
levels,buttheycontinuedtomakesteadystridestowardrecovery.These
tworatherrecession-batteredEurozonenationsincreasedtwoandfive
points,respectively,fromthepreviousquarter.ConfidenceinPortugal
9Copyright © 2016 The Nielsen Company
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hasbeenonarelativelysteadyclimbsince2014.Immediate-spending
intentionsincreasednotablyinbothcountries:Spainincreasedfour
percentagepointsto33%,andPortugalincreasedfivepercentagepoints
to24%,fromthefourthquarterlastyear.ConfidenceinGreece(53)
remainedverylowbutstableforthefourthconsecutivequarter.
InRussia,animportantgrowthmarketintheregion,confidenceshowed
adownwardtrend,declining11pointsto63.WhileRussiahasbeenin
recessionsincemid-2014,confidencetookafurtherhitthispastquarter.
Jobprospectsentimentplummeted10percentagepointsto14%,
immediatespendingintentionsfelleightpercentagepointsto17%,and
personal-financesentimentdropped10percentagepointsto26%.All
threeindicatorswereatthecountry’slowestlevelsinNielsen’s11-year
consumerconfidencehistory.Eighty-eightpercentofRussiansbelieved
theireconomywasinrecession—anincreaseofsevenpercentagepoints
fromthepreviousquarterandthecountry’shighestlevelsince2009.
“InRussia,theenvironmentisbesetwithlowoilpricesandcurrency
devaluation,andconsumersarebecomingincreasinglystressedastheir
disposableincomeshrinks,”saidAlexanderKotsuba,generalmanager,
NielsenRussia.“During2015,manyconsumersswitchedtocheaper
grocerybrandsandprivate-labelproducts,andtheycutdownonnon-
essentials.Atthestartof2016,consumersfeelevenmoreinsecure
amidstavolatileruble,higherunemploymentratesandhigherprices.
Formany,discretionary-spendingintentionsarelower,asRussian
consumersbecomeconservativeabouttheirfuturespendingplans.”
*BelarusandKazakhstanwereaddedQ12016
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence
&SpendingIntentions,Q12016
Consumer ConfidenCe deCreased in 17 of 34 euroPean marKets in Q1
Denmark
Germany
UnitedKingdom
CzechRepublic
Turkey
Ireland
Israel
Switzerland
Sweden
Netherlands
Austria
Romania
Belgium
Poland
Slovakia
Lithuania
Norway
Latvia
Bulgaria
Spain
Estonia
Kazakhstan*
Portugal
Croatia
France
Finland
Russia
Hungary
Serbia
Slovenia
Italy
Greece
Belarus*
Ukraine
index
Change from Q4 2015
inCrease
deCreaseno Change
105
97
97
97
96
95
92
91
86
85
83
83
82
82
80
79
78
77
77
74
74
73
71
69
64
63
63
61
61
60
59
53
50
46
-5
-1
-4
0
7
-4
-1
-2
0
-13
-3
4
4
4
2
-2
-4
1
5
2
-15
5
2
-10
2
-11
-2
0
-4
-2
0
-2
10 Quarter 1 2016 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
aSIa-paCIFIC ShOwED DIvERgENt CONFIDENCE tRENDS IN aDvaNCED aND DEvElOpINg ECONOMIES India(withanindexof134)andIndonesia(117)arebrightspotsamong
growthmarketsintheAsia-Pacificregion,withconfidenceupthreeand
twopoints,respectively,fromthepreviousquarter.Allthreeconfidence
indicatorsincreasedfromthepreviousquarterinbothcountries,with
jobsentiment,personalfinancesandimmediatespendingintentionsat
consistentlyhighlevels.
“InIndia,theUnionBudgetpresentedbytheFinanceMinisterattheend
ofFebruaryrevealedthegovernment’scommitmenttofiscalconsolidation,
andappearssettopavethewayforsustainedandinclusivegrowth,”
saidRooseveltD’Souza,managingdirector,NielsenIndia.“Inthedays
followingtheannouncement,animprovementinvariousmacroeconomic
indicatorswasevident,andthegovernmentseemstobeonitswayto
achievingitsobjectivesoflowinflation,lowinterestratesandhighGDP
growth—ascenariooptimalforimprovedconsumerspending.”
ThePhilippines(119)andVietnam(109)areotherpositivegrowthstories
amongemergingmarketsintheregion,asconsistentlyhighconsumer
confidencescorescontinuedtoedgeupbytwoandonepercentage
point,respectively,inthefirstquarter.Theserobustmemberstatesofthe
AssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)haveseenincreased
foreigndirectinvestmentcombinedwithstrongdomesticdemand.
Meanwhile,intwooftheregion’sadvancedeconomies,confidence
declined11pointsinHongKong(88)andsixpointsinJapan(73).Inboth
HongKongandJapan,positivejobsentimentlevelsshoweddouble-digit
declinesintermsofpercentages,falling23pointsinHongKong(to22%
whosaidjobprospectsweregoodorexcellentintheyearahead)and
11Copyright © 2016 The Nielsen Company
12pointsinJapan(23%).Personalfinancesentimentalsodeclined
15percentagepointsinHongKongto42%—thelowestlevelsince
2012.InChina,consumerconfidenceedgeddowntwopointsto105,
asrespondentsexpressingapositiveoutlookforjobsinthenextyear
declinedfivepercentagepointsto60%—thelowestlevelsince2010.
“InHongKong,thecontinueddropinmainlandvisitorsisimpacting
retailsales,whichweredown14%inJanuaryfromayearago,and
citizensareconcernedaboutjobsecurity,”saidAngelYoung,managing
director,NielsenHongKong.“Retailsalesinmajordepartmentstores
recordeddouble-digitdeclinesforbig-ticketitems,suchasjewelryand
watches,andyear-to-dateGDPgrowthisdownby0.6points(from
2.4%inQ12015to1.8%inQ12016).Asaresult,consumerconfidence
ismorecautious,andsparecashspendingintentionshavedeclinedfor
out-of-homeentertainmentexpenses,newclothesandnewtechnology
products.”
InAustralia,animportantadvancedeconomyandleadmarketinthe
region,confidencedeclinedsevenpointsto89,asallthreeconsumer
confidenceindicators(jobprospects,personalfinancesandimmediate
spendingintentions)declinedinthecountryinthefirstquarter.
Spendingintentionsshowedthebiggestchange,droppingfour
percentagepointsto42%.ConfidenceremainedstableinNewZealand
at99.
“InAustralia,confidencedeclinesreflectincreasedanxietyaboutthe
futureoftheeconomyandthestateofpersonalfinances,”saidJustin
Sargent,marketleader,NielsenPacific.“Worriesaboutthenation’s
economyhaveovertakenterrorism,jobsecurityandincreasingutility
billstobecomethebiggestconcernforAustralians.Notableconsumer
sentimentmovementssuchasthisgenerallyindicatethatconsumers
willbepullingbackoradjustingexpenditures,whichisalreadyevident
asAustralianschangetheirpurchasingbehaviorstosaveonhousehold
spending.”
India
Philippines
Indonesia
Vietnam
Thailand
China
NewZealand
Australia
HongKong
Singapore
Malaysia
Taiwan
Japan
SouthKorea
134
119
117
109
105
105
99
89
88
88
79
76
73
44
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECLINED IN 8 OF 14 ASIA-PACIFIC MARKETS IN Q1
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12016
inCrease
deCreaseno Change
inCrease
deCreaseno Change
inCrease
deCreaseno Change
index
Change from Q4 2015
3
2
2
1
-9
-2
0
-7
-11
-6
-1
7
-6
-2
12 Quarter 1 2016 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
IN latIN aMERICa, CONFIDENCE DEClINED thROUghOUt thE REgION InLatinAmerica’slargesteconomy,Brazil’sconsumerconfidencefellfor
thesixthconsecutivequarter.Confidencedeclinedtwopointsinthefirst
quartertothecountry’slowestscore(74)inNielsen’s11-yearconsumer
confidencehistory.Favorablejobprospectsentimentdeclinedtwo
percentagepointsto15%,andimmediatespendingintentionsdropped
sixpercentagepointsto26%fromthepreviousquarter.
“InBrazil,consumerscontinuedtoseekeveryopportunitytooptimize
theirhouseholdspend,”saidLuisArjona,countrymanager,Nielsen
Brazil.“Theoverallenvironmentremainschallengingfortheconsumer
market,withnegativeGDPgrowth,sustainedinflationandrising
unemploymentrates.Nielsenretailsalesdatainthethreemonths
endingFebruary2016showeda2.1%declineinfast-movingconsumer
goods,andhalfofthecategoriesintheanalysisshowedatrade-downto
moreaffordablebrands.”
ConfidencefellsharplyinArgentina(75)andColombia(83),declining13
pointsand11points,respectively,fromthepreviousquarter.Immediate-
spendingintentionsdeclineddramaticallyinbothcountriesinthe
firstquarter,dropping12percentagepointsinArgentinato20%and
13percentagepointsinColombiato27%.Fromthepreviousquarter,
positivejobsentimentdeclinedbyeightpercentagepointseachto29%
inArgentinaand21%inColombia,andpersonalfinancesentiment
declined10percentagepointsinArgentinato41%andsevenpercentage
pointsinColombiato62%.
“ConsumersinArgentinaarefacingradicalchanges,asthenewly
electedgovernmentisincreasingtaxesonearningsandpricesonpublic
servicessuchastransportationandutilities,”saidMarthaLucíaGiraldo,
emerging-marketleader,NielsenLatinAmerica.“Highinflationand
unemploymentcoupledwithlowwagesareshowinganegativeimpact
onretailsales,whicharedeclining.”
13Copyright © 2016 The Nielsen Company
“Colombiansareworriedaboutthemacroeconomicandpolitical
environment,asunemploymenthasclimbedandinflationhas
increasedthecostofliving,”saidPedroManosalva,countrymanager,
NielsenColombia.“Intermsofconsumption,however,retailvolume
andvaluesalesaregrowingmodestly,increasing2.4%and5.8%,
respectively,intheyearendingJanuary2016.”
ConfidencelevelsalsodeclinedfivepointsinPeru(91),threepoints
inMexico(86)andonepointinVenezuela(60)inthefirstquarter.
Chilewastheonlycountrymeasuredintheregionwitharisein
confidenceinthefirstquarter,edginguponepointto80fromthe
previousquarter.
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECLINED IN 6 OF 7 LATIN AMERICAN MARKETS IN Q1
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12016
Peru
venezuela
brazil
91
74
60
-5
-2
-1
Colombia
83-11
argentina
75-13
mexiCo
86-3
Chile
801
inCrease deCrease no Change
indexChange from Q4 2015
14 Quarter 1 2016 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
CONFIDENCE IN MIDDlE EaStERN aND SOUth aFRICaN MaRkEtS DEClINED Incountriesheavilyreliantonoilproduction,consumerconfidence
showedadownwardtrend.Inparticular,confidenceintheUnitedArab
Emirates(UAE,at104)andSaudiArabia(104)remainedabovethe
optimismbaseline,butdeclinedfourandtwopoints,respectively,from
thepreviousquarter.Afavorablejoboutlookforthenext12months
declinedeightpercentagepointsineachcountry,droppingto51%in
theUAE—thelowestlevelsince2010andto48%inSaudiArabia(the
lowestlevelsince2013).
“IntheUAE,thedeclineinoilpricesislikelytakingatollonconsumer
sentiment,whichhasdroppedtothelowestlevelinsixyears,”said
ArslanAshraf,managingdirector,NielsenUAE.“Oneineverytwo
respondentsbelievedtheeconomywasinrecession,eventhoughit
wasn’t,andjobsecuritywasthebiggestconcern.Manyinthecountry
saidtheyarecuttingbackspendingonentertainment,newelectronic
gadgetsandnewclothes,spendingdowndebtorsavingforarainyday
instead.However,whileNielsensalesoftheretailfast-movingconsumer
goodsNielsenmeasuresareslowing,theyarestillshowingapositive
trend.”
ConfidencealsodeclinedsevenpointsinSouthAfricato75—anewlow
forthecountryinNielsen’s11-yearconsumer-confidencehistory.Positive
personalfinancesentimentdeclinedeightpercentagepointsto49%,
whilefavorablejobprospectsentimentdeclinedfourpercentagepoints
to18%,andimmediate-spendingintentionsdeclinedfivepercentage
pointsto22%.
“InSouthAfrica,increasinglevelsofunemployment,lackluster
economicgrowthandrisinginflationismakingitdifficultforconsumers
inthecountry,”saidBryanSun,managingdirector,NielsenSouthAfrica.
“Thefallincommoditypriceshasresultedindeclinesinemployment
inimportantandtraditionalsectorsoftheeconomysuchasmining,
manufacturing,construction,transportandelectricity.Theeconomy,
increasingfoodprices,andjobsecurityarethebiggestconcernsfor
SouthAfricans.”
inCrease deCrease no Change
indexChange from Q4 2015
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DECREASED IN FOUR OF SIX MIDDLE EAST/AFRICA MARKETS IN Q1
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12016
-4
-2
1
1
-7
-1
united arab emirates
saudi arabia
PaKistan
egyPt
south afriCa
moroCCo
104
104
104
78
75
84
15Copyright © 2016 The Nielsen Company
OptIMISM lEvElS REMaINED hIgh IN NIgERIa, kENya aND ghaNa, bUt thE latESt RESUltS ShOwED MIxED tRENDSOfthethreeSub-SaharanAfricancountriesmeasuredbyNielsenusing
amobilesurveymethodology(Nigeria,KenyaandGhana),Nigeria’s
consumerconfidencescore(120)continuedtorankhighest,despitea
seven-pointdecreaseinthefirstquarter.InKenya,consumerconfidence
increasedfivepoints(to108),andGhana’sconfidencescore(104)was
unchangedfromthepreviousquarter2.
JobprospectsentimentincreasedinbothKenya(where55%took
afavorableview)andGhana(48%),rising10andsixpercentage
points,respectively,fromthepreviousquarter.InKenya,personal
financesentiment(65%)andimmediate-spendingintentions(36%)
alsoincreased,risingsevenandtwopercentagepoints,respectively.
InGhana,thetrendwasreversed:Personal-financesentiment(70%)
declinedonepercentagepoint,andimmediate-spendingintentions
(35%)declinedfivepercentagepointsfromthepreviousquarter.
InNigeria,allthreeconfidenceindicatorsdeclinedfromtheprevious
quarter.Thepercentageseeingapositiveoutlookforjobsinthenext12
monthsdroppedeightpointsto65%.Theshareexpressingfavorable
personalfinancesentimentdeclinedthreepercentagepointsto79%,
andthesharewithimmediate-spendingintentionsdeclinedeight
percentagepointsto42%.
2Ghana,KenyaandNigeriawereaddedtoNielsen’smeasurementofconsumerconfidenceinthefirstquarterof2014usingamobilesurveymethodology,whichdiffersfromtheonlinemethodologyusedtoreportconsumerconfidenceandspendingintentionsfortheother63countriesoutlinedinthisreport.Therefore,thesethreeSub-SaharanAfricanmarketsarenotincludedintheglobalindexdiscussedthroughoutthisreport.
16 Quarter 1 2016 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
“Nigeria’sdropwasdrivenprimarilybydeterioratingmacroeconomic
indicatorsasaresultofcontinuedweaknessincommodityprices,”said
LampeOmoyele,managingdirector,NielsenWestAfrica.“Despitethis,
Nigerianscontinuetobesomeofthemostoptimisticconsumersonthe
continent.It’samuch-neededoptimism:BusinesssuccessinNigeriais
aboutsuccessfullynavigatingthecomplexroutestomarket,pinpointing
theoptimaloutletstogeneratethegreatestreturn,andworkingwith
retailerstobuildandactivatedemand—inamarketwithmorethan2
millionretailoutlets!”
Q1 2016Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12016Sub-SaharanAfricacountriesuseamobilemethodology
ghaNa99 10499 94 104
kENya
117 108104 112 103
NIgERIa127 120129 132 127
CoNSuMer CoNFIdeNCe reMAINed At hIGh levelS IN NIGerIA deSpIte deClINe
CoNSuMer CoNFIdeNCe INdex
17Copyright © 2016 The Nielsen Company
RECESSIONaRy SENtIMENt gREw aROUND thE wORlDSixin10globalrespondentsbelievedtheirnation’seconomywasin
recessioninthefirstquarter,anincreasefrom55%inthefourthquarter
oflastyearandthehighestlevelsince2012.Recessionarysentiment
rosein40of613measuredmarketsinthefirstquarter,withdouble-digit
percentagepointincreasesinEstonia(+24%),Colombia(+15%),Hong
Kong(+12%),Singapore(+12%),Norway(+10%),Argentina(+10%)and
SaudiArabia(+10%).
RecessionarysentimentalsoroseninepercentagepointsinFrance(to
81%),China(38%)andtheNetherlands(58%)fromthefourthquarter.It
roseeightpercentagepointsinRomania(to54%)andsevenpercentage
pointsinRussia(88%),Italy(87%),Japan(82%),Thailand(82%),and
Canada(72%).
Recessionarysentimentwasathighlevelsintheemergingmarketsof
Venezuela(98%),Ukraine(97%),Belarus(96%),Brazil(94%),South
Korea(92%)andKazakhstan(91%).
“Concernsaboutaglobalrecessiondissipatedamongeconomistsby
theendofthefirstquarterof2016.Still,consumersacrossmarkets
surveyedinthefirstquarterof2016were,onaverage,morelikelythan
nottothinktheireconomywasinrecessionrelativetothosesurveyed
thepreviousquarter,”saidKeely.“Bigjumpsinrecessionarysentiment
ofsomeindividualmarketscanindicateconsumerconcernsabout
macroeconomicorevenpoliticalsituationsspecifictothatcountry,even
iftheydonotcoincidewithanactualrecession.”
3AsBelarusandKazakhstanwereaddedinthefirstquarterof2016,thesetwomarketsarenotincludedinthetotalnumberofmeasuredonlinemarketswhererecessionarysentimentgrew.
18 Quarter 1 2016 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12016
perCeNtAGe who thINk theIr CouNtry IS IN AN eCoNoMIC reCeSSIoN At the MoMeNt
60%
venezuela
uKraine
belarus
brazil
south Korea
Croatia
russia
italy
argentina
KazaKhstan
98%
q1 2016
97%
96%
94%
92%
87%
91%
89%
88%
87%
estonia
Colombia
hong Kong
singaPore
norway
saudi arabia
franCe
China
netherlands
+24
+15
+12
+12
+10
+10
+10
+9
+9
+9
percentage-point Difference from q4 2015
argentina
70%
q1 2016
81%
73%
52%
73%
38%
87%
63%
81%
58%
reCeSSIoNAry SeNtIMeNt: reMAINS At hIGh levelS IN lAtIN AMerICA ANd europe
ANd GrowS IN eACh reGIoN
GlobAl AverAGe
hIGheSt level
bIGGeSt INCreASe
19Copyright © 2016 The Nielsen Company
perCeNtAGe who thINk theIr CouNtry IS IN AN eCoNoMIC reCeSSIoN At the MoMeNt
wORlDwIDE wORRIES aND CONCERNSTheeconomy,jobsecurityandhealthweretopconcernsaroundthe
world,butmanyotherworriesweretopofmind,too.Inparticular,
terrorismfearsgrippedmanyinEurope,whilecrimeandincreasingfood
priceswereprominentformanyinLatinAmericanmarkets.Work-life
balancewasonthemindsofmanyinAsia-Pacific,andparents’welfare
andhappinesswasacentralconcerninAsianandMiddleEastern
markets.
20 Quarter 1 2016 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
asia-PaCifiC euroPe latin ameriCamiddle east/afriCa north ameriCa
CoNCerNS vAry CoNSIderAbly ArouNd the world
bIGGeSt pluS SeCoNd-bIGGeSt CoNCerNS IN the Next SIx MoNthS CouNtrIeS wIth the hIGheSt levelS
FAMIly lIFe
health worK/life balanCe Parents' welfare/haPPiness
Childrens' eduCation/welfare
Lithuania 44% China 34% Pakistan 25% Lithuania 24%
Latvia 37% Portugal 30% SaudiArabia 17% Pakistan 21%
Vietnam 34% Bulgaria 27% China 17% Philippines 19%
China 32% Philippines 25% Egypt 17% SouthKorea 19%
Romania 32% SouthKorea 24% SouthKorea 15% China 17%
Slovakia 32%
SAFety
terrorism war Crime immigrationTurkey 61% Ukraine 38% Venezuela 34% CzechRepublic 33%
Israel 38% Turkey 31% Peru 33% Denmark 27%
France 35% SaudiArabia 25% Argentina 26% U.K. 25%
Germany 32% Russia 15% Mexico 21% Austria 24%
Austria 25% Greece 15% Chile 21% Sweden 24%
MoNey MAtterS
debt inCreasing food PriCes inCreasing utility bills Hungary 25% Venezuela 34% Ukraine 30%
Canada 24% Kazakhstan 33% Belarus 26%
Thailand 23% Russia 30% Belgium 23%
Chile 23% Canada 28% Finland 23%
Poland 21% SouthAfrica 26% Argentina 22%
Greece 21% Belarus 26%
Argentina 26%
the eCoNoMy
the eConomy Job seCurityMalaysia 52% UAE 44%
Thailand 51% Greece 38%
Venezuela 51% Colombia 38%
Taiwan 42% Chile 38%
SouthAfrica 40% Mexico 36%
Indonesia 40%
polItICS/eNvIroNMeNt
PolitiCal stability global warmingHongKong 25% India 23%
Venezuela 23% France 12%
Malaysia 19% Colombia 10%
Slovakia 17% Denmark 10%
SouthAfrica 15% Philippines 9%
Indonesia 9%
Taiwan 9%
HongKong 9%
Source:NielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidence&SpendingIntentions,Q12016
21Copyright © 2016 The Nielsen Company
marKet internet Penetration
Australia 93%
China 50%
HongKong 81%
India 30%
Indonesia 31%
Japan 91%
Malaysia 68%
NewZealand 94%
Philippines 43%
Singapore 82%
South Korea 92%
Taiwan 84%
Thailand 56%
Vietnam 50%
marKet mobile Penetration*
Ghana 99%
Kenya 73%
Nigeria 76%
Countries in the studyASIA-pACIFIC
marKet internet Penetration
Egypt 55%
Morocco 61%
Pakistan 15%
SaudiArabia 66%
SouthAfrica 49%
UnitedArabEmirates
93%
MIddle eASt/AFrICA
Source:InternetWorldStats,Nov.30,2015
marKet internet Penetration
Canada 93%
U.S. 87%
North AMerICA
Sub-SAhArAN AFrICA
europe
marKet internet Penetration
Austria 83%
Belarus 59%
Belgium 85%
Bulgaria 57%
Croatia 75%
CzechRepublic 80%
Denmark 96%
Estonia 84%
Finland 94%
France 84%
Germany 88%
Greece 63%
Hungary 76%
Ireland 83%
Israel 75%
Italy 62%
Kazakhstan 55%
Latvia 82%
Lithuania 82%
Netherlands 96%
Norway 96%
Poland 68%
Portugal 68%
Romania 56%
Russia 71%
Serbia 66%
Slovakia 83%
Slovenia 73%
Spain 77%
Sweden 95%
Switzerland 87%
Turkey 60%
U.K. 92%
Ukraine 43%
marKet internet Penetration
lAtIN AMerICA
Argentina 80%
Brazil 58%
Chile 72%
Colombia 59%
Mexico 49%
Peru 53%
Venezuela 62%
*Basedonmobilehandsetsdividedbypopulation.Source:CIAWorldFactbook,2014
22 Quarter 1 2016 - Global Consumer ConfidenCe report
about the nielsen global survey TheNielsenGlobalSurveyofConsumerConfidenceandSpendingIntentions
wasconductedMarch1–23,2016,andpolledmorethan30,000online
consumersin63countriesthroughoutAsia-Pacific,Europe,LatinAmerica,the
MiddleEast/AfricaandNorthAmerica.ThesampleincludesInternetusers
whoagreedtoparticipateinthissurveyandhasquotasbasedonageandsex
foreachcountry.ItisweightedtoberepresentativeofInternetconsumers
bycountry.Becausethesampleisbasedonthosewhoagreedtoparticipate,
noestimatesoftheoreticalsamplingerrorcanbecalculated.However,a
probabilitysampleofequivalentsizewouldhaveamarginoferrorof±0.6%
atthegloballevel.ThisNielsensurveyisbasedonlyonthebehaviorof
respondentswithonlineaccess.Internetpenetrationratesvarybycountry.
Nielsenusesaminimumreportingstandardof60%Internetpenetrationor
anonlinepopulationof10millionforsurveyinclusion.TheChinaConsumer
ConfidenceIndexiscompiledfromaseparatemixedmethodologysurvey
among3,500respondentsinChina.TheSub-SaharanAfricancountriesinthis
studyarecompiledfromaseparatemobilemethodologysurveyamong1,600
respondentsinGhana,KenyaandNigeria.TheNielsenGlobalSurvey,which
includestheGlobalConsumerConfidenceIndex,wasestablishedin2005.
about nielsenNielsenHoldingsplc(NYSE:NLSN)isaglobalperformancemanagement
companythatprovidesacomprehensiveunderstandingofwhatconsumers
watchandbuy.Nielsen’sWatchsegmentprovidesmediaandadvertising
clientswithTotalAudiencemeasurementservicesforalldevicesonwhich
content–video,audioandtext–isconsumed.TheBuysegmentoffers
consumerpackagedgoodsmanufacturersandretailerstheindustry’sonly
globalviewofretailperformancemeasurement.Byintegratinginformation
fromitsWatchandBuysegmentsandotherdatasources,Nielsenalso
providesitsclientswithanalyticsthathelpimproveperformance.Nielsen,
anS&P500company,hasoperationsinover100countries,coveringmore
than90%oftheworld’spopulation.
Formoreinformation,visitwww.nielsen.com.
Copyright©2016TheNielsenCompany.Allrightsreserved.Nielsenand
theNielsenlogoaretrademarksorregisteredtrademarksofCZT/ACN
Trademarks,L.L.C.Otherproductandservicenamesaretrademarksor
registeredtrademarksoftheirrespectivecompanies.16/9957