"Converged Communications -- Impact and Requirements on future handsets

1 © 2007 John Loughney

The (Mobile) Surf’s Up!

Converged Communications -- Impact and Requirements on future handsets

John LoughneyNokia Research Centerhttp://research.nokia.com/people/john_loughney/


Voice will be the killer app for some time

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bal Revenue €

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Fixed Voice

Mobile Data

Fixed Data

From: Nokia March 2006


Business and Technology trends

Nokia’s strategy and offering

Conclusions

Opportunities and benefits


Look How Far We Have Come

• First Generation - 1981 with NMT (Nordic Mobile Telephone) system

• Second Generation - 20th birthday of GSM this year

• First camera phone 2001 (VGA) Nokia 7650 (first GSM phone)

• First desktop-like mobile phone browser 2005

• 850 million people around the world connected with Nokia devices

• We estimate that Mobile subscriptions will surpass 3 billion this year and 4 billion by 2010

• But this story is not coming to end. It’s evolving fast… And consumer expectations are higher. Much higher…


Voice is still the driver for mobile phones

• Customers need communication on the go.

• Mobility provides superior productivity, flexibility & convenience benefits.

• Fixed–to-mobile substitution happening in homes & offices

• Mobile customers expect to access Internet communities & services.

• New technologies enabling broadband services in mobiles

• 3G is a key driver for mobile rich communication

• WLAN has reached maturity to be a reality for mobiles

• Unlicensed Mobile Access • SIP (Internet and 3GPP)

Mobile Data users (millions)


Mobile Internet Media Consumption is Booming

Source: Nokia Hear New, 2007

• Mobile broadband, Internet, and media player capabilities boost new value in the market.

• The value of the mobile digital music sales will grow from €387M in 2006 to €2.2Bn in 2010

• By 2010, digital music sales will account for over 33% of the music retail revenue, or over 40% if ringtones are included.

• South Korea, Japan, and Spain are examples of markets where OTA music downloads dwarf PC music downloads

• The number of worldwide mobile video subscribers will jump 8006% between 2005 and 2009

• Mobile video handsets sold worldwide is expected to grow from 28 million in 2005 to 336 million in 2009


Internet communication - Broadband everywhere

• Rich Internet communication is growing fast

• Aggressively priced VoIP call

• New / Ad based business models

• Services combining VoIP + IM + Presence

• Numerous and fast evolving services from the ”long tail” of the Internet

• Enterprises adopting IP-PBX for cost savings and future proof technology

• Hundreds of millions of IM & VoIP service registered users

• 240 million MSN Messenger active accounts

• 80 million Yahoo! Messenger users

• 1.5 million GoogleTalk users

• 130 million registered Skype users

• Consumer market

• ISPs offering rich communication services for consumers already

• Numerous, niche services from the ”long tail” of the Internet

• Integrated IM, Email, VoIP, image & video sharing, etc.

• Over 400 Million active IM users, close to 500M email users

Source: xSPs own statements / press releases and MyMetrix

MediaTrend Report mid 2006


3G, LTE and WiMAX

• HSPA is available today to bring high-speed data to 3G networks, with a clear evolution

• Long Term Evolution (LTE) is the optimal evolution path from GSM and WCDMA/HSPA to future networks and services

• WiMax offers an opportunity for operators primarily without 3G licenses to deploy wireless broadband

WiMAX-2005 (Mobile)

GSM EDGE WCDMA

’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10

WLAN

HSDPA HSPUA I-HSPA

LTE

HSPA+

Broadband PS, VoIP

70/40 Mbit/s

15ms

WiMax

(802.16e)

PS only, VoIPCAPEX / OPEX

optimised broadband PS

Broadband PSCS and high

speed PSCS and PSServices

100/50 Mbit/s

10ms

LTE

14/5 Mbit/s14/5 Mbit/s384/384 kbit/s200/100 kbit/s

(400/200k)Peak data rate DL/UL

25ms50ms150ms300msLatency

I-HSPAHSPA Evolution

HSPAWCDMAEDGE and (evolved EDGE)


Location Based Services (LBS) Market Data

Mobile LBS market will grow to $8.5 billion during the next four years.*

Almost 2.5 million GPS integrated navigation devices were sold in 2Q06 in EMEA, 97% growth from 2Q05.**

Consumer top most wanted cellular applicationsother than voice communication***:

1. Navigation assistance - 33%2. Traffic conditions for route – 31%3. Weather Information – 27%4. Send/Receive Text messages – 24%5. Find Points of Interest – 23%6. Monitor location of children – 23%7. Push to talk – 21%8. Send/receive emails - 21%9. Pedestrian directions - 20%

*Juniper Research 2006 **Canalys 2006***CJ Driscoll 2006

GPS/AGPS Mobile Phone Sales Forecast, Gartner 2006

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Favorite ShopNew Cafe

Hotel




Conclusions



Mobile Communication: Converged Access, availability, communication & content

• Session-based real-time conversational communication

• Over Cellular and wireless BB

• Unified user interface

• Person-to-person / group• Voice or video calls

• Push to Talk conversations

• Instant Messaging / chat• Sharing personal media content

within session

• Enabled by • IP multimedia subsystem (IMS)• Session Management with

Session Initiation Protocol (SIP)

• Presence, capabilities advertising

• Content / Group Management


Service bundling becoming a key factor

• Service providers are deploying “sticky bundles” to increase customer retention & attainable market

User will perceive:• Consistent user experience

• Service continuity/ availability

• One bill instead of several

• Single sign-on becoming more relevant as the number of services grows

Triple/Quadruple play

Offer integrated services and leverage applications across: High speed Internet, TV, Wireless

…Games

IPTV, VOD

Voice and messaging

Value Adoption

communities

Service bundling is a natural part of rich & converged service offering


TeliaSonera HomeFree with UMA

• “TeliaSonera is first in the world to introduce a voice solution that combines mobile communications and wireless broadband - the mobile phone and voice over IP become merged in one and the same telephone.

• Subscription: ~25€ + 20kr/month, for free vowlan inland, mobile fee for international, ~10€ extra for free international.

TeliaSonera HomeFree with UMA

• “TeliaSonera is first in the world to introduce a voice solution that combines mobile communications and wireless broadband - the mobile phone and voice over IP become merged in one and the same telephone.

• Subscription: ~25€ + 20kr/month, for free vowlan inland, mobile fee for international, ~10€ extra for free international.

Examples of operators enriching services

FT / Orange Livebox with UMA

• Livebox enables broadband connections for all home communications:

• Web, IP TV, VoIP, video call, on-line games, UMA calls, home surveillance, etc.

•Launched July 2004, 3M subscribers by Mid 2006

• average 30€/month + 3€/month for Livebox (WiFi enabled) modem

FT / Orange Livebox with UMA

• Livebox enables broadband connections for all home communications:

• Web, IP TV, VoIP, video call, on-line games, UMA calls, home surveillance, etc.

•Launched July 2004, 3M subscribers by Mid 2006

• average 30€/month + 3€/month for Livebox (WiFi enabled) modem

BT Fusion UMA

• Bundle of voice minutes and texts,

• With BT Home Hub or BT Openzone hotspots you can talk for 4 minutes but only use 1 of your inclusive minutes.

• FREE internet surfing on your mobile with Wifi

BT Fusion UMA

• Bundle of voice minutes and texts,

• With BT Home Hub or BT Openzone hotspots you can talk for 4 minutes but only use 1 of your inclusive minutes.

• FREE internet surfing on your mobile with Wifi


Examples of operators bundling services

Singtel mio Mobile• A dual-mode service that allows mobile users

to use VoIP from home Wi-Fi and over 5,000 Wireless@SG hotspots;

• The commercial launch of the service took place on Jan 8, 2007;

• The subscription (fixed monthly) fee for the service is ~7€;

• Available to consumers and SME customers on postpaid mobile plans allowing them to make unlimited local calls using Nokia SIP-enabled VoIP devices;

• Supported on Nokia E60, Nokia E61, Nokia N80 Internet Edition, Nokia E65 and Nokia N95.

• Dual-mode calling with single-numbering

Singtel mio Mobile• A dual-mode service that allows mobile users

to use VoIP from home Wi-Fi and over 5,000 Wireless@SG hotspots;

• The commercial launch of the service took place on Jan 8, 2007;

• The subscription (fixed monthly) fee for the service is ~7€;

• Available to consumers and SME customers on postpaid mobile plans allowing them to make unlimited local calls using Nokia SIP-enabled VoIP devices;

• Supported on Nokia E60, Nokia E61, Nokia N80 Internet Edition, Nokia E65 and Nokia N95.

• Dual-mode calling with single-numbering

Starhub pfingo• A mobile Internet service suite that provides

VoIP, IM, remote access to video and music files across the mobile phone and PC in a single, integrated application.

• pfingoTALK is a subscription-based VoIP service to make and receive calls over the Internet from a Wi-Fi hotspot or broadband connected PC

• cross-carrier service will be open to any user worldwide, not just StarHub subscribers

• Users can also obtain an overseas phone number that is linked to their pfingoTALKaccount so that contacts in that country can dial this number and pay only local call rate.

• Currently in trials, expected to launch commercially at mid-2007

Starhub pfingo• A mobile Internet service suite that provides

VoIP, IM, remote access to video and music files across the mobile phone and PC in a single, integrated application.

• pfingoTALK is a subscription-based VoIP service to make and receive calls over the Internet from a Wi-Fi hotspot or broadband connected PC

• cross-carrier service will be open to any user worldwide, not just StarHub subscribers

• Users can also obtain an overseas phone number that is linked to their pfingoTALKaccount so that contacts in that country can dial this number and pay only local call rate.

• Currently in trials, expected to launch commercially at mid-2007


E-Plus and Skype• 3G data cards bundled with Skype client and a Skype headset telephone (for laptop use)

• In the future, integrated Skype client in the 3G smartphone

• 39€ per month for unlimited 3G data

• SkypeIn and SkypeOut charges apply for calls to PSTN and mobile networks

E-Plus and Skype• 3G data cards bundled with Skype client and a Skype headset telephone (for laptop use)

• In the future, integrated Skype client in the 3G smartphone

• 39€ per month for unlimited 3G data

• SkypeIn and SkypeOut charges apply for calls to PSTN and mobile networks

Examples of 3G operators partnering

3 Sweden and Skype• 3 Sweden and Skype offer mobile broadband connection with mobile VoIP, to challenge fixed phone pricing

• Pricing:• Data card for ~100€ + Skype subscription ~20€/month for 1GB data/month

• Or ~50€/month for unlimited data, data card inclusive

3 Sweden and Skype• 3 Sweden and Skype offer mobile broadband connection with mobile VoIP, to challenge fixed phone pricing

• Pricing:• Data card for ~100€ + Skype subscription ~20€/month for 1GB data/month

• Or ~50€/month for unlimited data, data card inclusive

X-series by 3• Your TV, home PC and all the best of the web on your mobile.

• Free Skype calls. Search the web with Yahoo! Download podcasts. Bid on eBay. Or browse Google, BBC and Amazon. Etc.

• 5-10£/month in UK

• Nokia N73, SE W950i

X-series by 3• Your TV, home PC and all the best of the web on your mobile.

• Free Skype calls. Search the web with Yahoo! Download podcasts. Bid on eBay. Or browse Google, BBC and Amazon. Etc.

• 5-10£/month in UK

• Nokia N73, SE W950i

- Revenue sharing deals, Bundle price and/or flat rate offering, etc.-


Broadband players are entering the game

Vonage• Broadband telephone services provider with ~2M subscriber lines, started in 2001

• Phone adapter, USB PC adapter, or Wi-Fi Phone

• Flat rate pricing inside US, Canada, and top 6 European countries

• 25$ private unlimited

• 50$ business unlimited

• Low international rates elsewhere

Vonage• Broadband telephone services provider with ~2M subscriber lines, started in 2001

• Phone adapter, USB PC adapter, or Wi-Fi Phone

• Flat rate pricing inside US, Canada, and top 6 European countries

• 25$ private unlimited

• 50$ business unlimited

• Low international rates elsewhere

Boingo• Aggregates and sells WiFi access to its subscribers, mainly for data usage

• Expand the usage of its hotspots to voice

• WiFi toolkit available for handsets and other mobile devices

•Established Skype Zones, allowing Skype (via laptop) users flat rate access to Skype through Boingo hotspots (€6.65 per month)

Boingo• Aggregates and sells WiFi access to its subscribers, mainly for data usage

• Expand the usage of its hotspots to voice

• WiFi toolkit available for handsets and other mobile devices

•Established Skype Zones, allowing Skype (via laptop) users flat rate access to Skype through Boingo hotspots (€6.65 per month)

Sipgate• Sipgate is a Pan-European VoIP ISP

•Free VoIP calls, now also with Nokia E-series dual-mode phones

• Free inside Sipgate networks and with some partner networks

• Competitive rates for normal PSTN, cellular, and international calls

Sipgate• Sipgate is a Pan-European VoIP ISP

•Free VoIP calls, now also with Nokia E-series dual-mode phones

• Free inside Sipgate networks and with some partner networks

• Competitive rates for normal PSTN, cellular, and international calls

Freenet• Freenet Mobile and DSL-Telefonie (VoIP over WLAN) bundle offer

• Available for Nokia dual-mode devices: N95, E65, N80

Freenet• Freenet Mobile and DSL-Telefonie (VoIP over WLAN) bundle offer

• Available for Nokia dual-mode devices: N95, E65, N80


Operator’s Role

Strong operator community service to compete against the ISPs

Strong operator community service to compete against the ISPs

Connection provider for/to ISP communities

Connection provider for/to ISP communities

Service level co-operation with ISPs- Revenue sharing deals -

Service level co-operation with ISPs- Revenue sharing deals -

Operator’s assets with internet services

• Subscriber base, existing customers

• Billing machinery

• Wide area mobile access, frequencies

• Preferred provider of personal communications

services

• Brand & consumer awareness

• Authentication and secure reputation

Operator’s assets with internet services

• Subscriber base, existing customers

• Billing machinery

• Wide area mobile access, frequencies

• Preferred provider of personal communications

services

• Brand & consumer awareness

• Authentication and secure reputation


3rd Party Communication Applications Available

• Several developers developing IMS/SIP and rich communication applications

• 3rd party SIP applications usable through SIP API

SIP VoIP and IMGizmoSIP Phone

VoIP and IM, connects also to Skype, Gtalk, MSN

FringFring

Rich mobile application/service suite Movial Connect MobileMovial

Album sharing application (+blogging)Photos to friends Futurice

File sharing applicationmBit clientN2N

… and more

Networking applicationMoMo friendsmBounce

Several P2P game titlesSubsonic racing, Jewel Impulse, MVR Pool, Power Darts, Black Jack, The Five, Treasure Mine, Mad Macs

Noumena

Push to showPush to showArcsoft

Multimedia instant messagingMIMMovial

Application typeApplication titlesCompany


VoIP device competitors

Linksys

WIP300

Linksys

CIT200

(WiFi)

NETGEAR

(WiFi)

UTStarcom

F1000GLG CL400 Samsung

SGH-T709

Qtek 9100

(dual-mode)

Motorola

A910

UMA devices

“Skype phones”

WiFi SIP VoIP phones New announcements appear

constantly …

And

many

more

…

MotoRZR

MaxxV3

VoIP over cellular

- 3’s X-series-

SE W950i LGU830



Conclusions




Mobile devices play key role in interactive Web 2.0 sharing and blogging services

Nokia users share images and video on-line• Attractive online photo and video blog services improve

ARPU and data subscription sales

• Popular photo & video blogging services integrated in more and more Nokia devices

• New global and regional communities continuously added

• Nokia number 1 mobile device in Flicker

• Over 4 million photos originate from Nokia devices


Convergence offers benefits and opportunities for all

Enterprises• Increase productivity by anywhere access to key

corporate applications• Enable enterprise collaboration solutions also

on mobiles • Reduce costs by moving voice and data to

common IP networks

Operators & other service providers

• Innovative IP multimedia services portfolio: VoIP, IM, Video, Presence, etc.

• Fast deployment of services based on IP

• Cost reductions by moving to IP-based service machinery

• Cost efficient cellular services indoors

• Satisfy the customer needs for fixed-to-mobile-substitution

• Enable the users to connect their favorite internet communities with mobiles.

• Service provider partnerships for full bundled rich services

Enterprises

Operators /Service Providers

Consumers

Consumers • Be connected to the favourite

internet communities also when on the move

• Attractive prices for basic voice• Rich service bundles from one

service provider


Disruptive business model

Established business model

Mobile Fixed

Mobile Operators

Fixed operators

Cableoperators

Enterprise

HybridOperators

NewVirtual

Operators

ISP’s

MobileVirtual

Operator

Monopoly

Telecom

Internet

Fixed operators counter attack fixed substitution

with VoIP and broadband

Fixed operators counter attack fixed substitution

with VoIP and broadband

Internet players offering VoIP combined with

instant messaging, email, etc.- and moving to mobile space.

Internet players offering VoIP combined with

instant messaging, email, etc.- and moving to mobile space.

Mobile technologies, networks and devices are mature for rich communication services.

Mobile technologies, networks and devices are mature for rich communication services.

Operators and Mega ISPs enabling internet communities with mobiles.

Operators and Mega ISPs enabling internet communities with mobiles.

Mobile operators deploying rich

communications services.

Mobile operators deploying rich

communications services.

Mobile operators expanding services with broadband/WLAN and IP based solutions – partnerships, mergers, etc.

Mobile operators expanding services with broadband/WLAN and IP based solutions – partnerships, mergers, etc.

Convergence Business Landscape

Numerous small VoIP and community service providers innovating in the mobile space.

Numerous small VoIP and community service providers innovating in the mobile space.

Content vs. Access based

business models


Conclusions





Nokia supports convergence in multiple ways

• Many technologies to choose from• IETF SIP, 3GPP/IMS VoIP, UMA, IMS VCC

• Proprietary technologies for community services and enterprise solutions

• VoIP and other IP services over Cellular/3G/WiFi

• WLAN and WiMax are complementary technologies to cellular – EDGE, 3G, HSPA, LTE are crucial for full mobility

The industry should continue to promote standards-b ased technologies to ensure interoperability between dev ices and networks.

Rich messaging

Content sharing

Push totalk

Chat

Inter-activegaming

Video sharing

Messaging

Presence

Packet-switched network

(3G, WLAN, xDSL)

Voice

Communities


Convergence is happening

I am:

16502838068 +358504838068

[email protected] [email protected]

gmail/gtalk:john.loughney jabber:loughney skype:loughneygizmo:loughney(17476423923) aim:jlghny

yahoo:j_loughney http://www.flickr.com/j_loughneyhttp://www.geocities.com/j_loughney/ http://research.nokia.com/people/john_loughney/

http://del.icio.us/loughney

And I want to use these on my phone!


Moving in to the mobile, always connected Internet• Nokia creates devices that enable communication, with very human

technology.

• Nokia Betalabs (www.nokia.com\betalabs) used as a beta site for new and interesting applications

• Nokia Research Center focused on Open Innovations with key partners

3

23 2 1

PC

Tablet

Phone


Impact of IP over cellular

• UDP and TCP timeouts vary widely, a default 30 seconds may be needed for UDP.

• Several different NAT traversal mechanisms are needed• STUN, TURN, ICE, Teredo

• All bring additional terminal and network complexity • Additional CAPEX and OPEX

• All NAT traversal mechanism do open some security holes.

• Even worse, you might be behind different NATs at different times of the day• Home, office, hotspot networks often use different types of NATs.

• Each requiring a different traversal mechanism

• Performance over 3G is even worse• UMTS radio state management prevents the mobile device from entering sleep mode,

often reducing standby time by days.

• http://www.niksula.hut.fi/~peronen/publications/haverinen_siren_eronen_vtc2007.pdf


Thank You!

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