Copyright © 2003 Altera Corporation Robert Blake Vice President, Product Planning Robert Blake Vice...

Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation

Robert Blake

Vice President, Product Planning

Robert Blake

Vice President, Product Planning

History of Programmable LogicHistory of Programmable Logic

2


Altera Founded in 1983Altera Founded in 1983

“The probabilities are high that someone will produce an electrically alterable logic array” predicted Bob Hartmann, Paul Newhagen and Michael Magranet in the closing chapters of their 1982 book on the gate array industry

They recognized limitations of ASICs and the value of PROGRAMABILITY

World’s First PLD EP300: 320 Gates, 3-µm CMOS

10-MHz Performance, 20 I/O PinsDesktop Programming“Fixing Design Errors for Free”

First Fabless Company

History of PLDs - 1984History of PLDs - 1984

84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383

CMOS PLD$B

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

First PLD

History of PLDs: 1985 - 1987History of PLDs: 1985 - 1987

84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383

TTL Libraries (74XX) for PLD EP1200 First High-Density PLD EPB1400 First Embedded PLD

First PLD

TTL LIBEP1200

EPB1400

CMOS PLD$B

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Simple Control Logic

History of PLDs: 1988History of PLDs: 1988

84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383

First PLD

Altera IPO March 30, 1988 ALTR Offers 4 Million Shares MAX+PLUS® Software: First

Integrated EDA for PLDs

ALTRIPO

TTL LIBEP1200

EPB1400

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

CMOS PLD$B



84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383

First PLD

Altera Delivers Hardware Description Language (AHDL)

>50% Reduction in Design Entry Time >5,000 Customers

TTL LIBEP1200

EPB1400

ALTRIPO

AHDL

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

CMOS PLD$B

Complex Logic


History of PLDs: 1990-1991History of PLDs: 1990-1991

84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383

First PLD

TTL LIBEP1200

EPB1400

MAX+PLUS IIMAX 7000

ALTRIPO

Introduction of MAX® 7000 – Now World’s Most Popular PLD Ever!

MAX+PLUS® II: First Windows-Based Integrated Tools

AHDL

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

CMOS PLD$B

ComplexLogic



84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383

First PLD

TTL LIBEP1200

EPB1400

FLEX 8000ACCESS EDA

ALTRIPO

MAX+PLUS IIMAX 7000

AHDL

FLEX® 8000 High-Density/Performance SRAM FPGA >1M Transistors Bridging & System Logic Integration

ACCESSSM Program Industry Alliance with EDA

Manufacturers Adopted ASIC Design Methodology

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

CMOS PLD$B

ComplexLogic

System Logic



84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383

First PLD

World’s First Low-Power 3.3-V CPLD MAX 9000 High-Density CPLD

12,000 Gates, 150-MHz Performance >9,000 Customers Using Products

TTL LIBEP1200

EPB1400

7032VMAX 9000

ALTRIPO

FLEX 8000ACCESS EDA

MAX+PLUS IIMAX 7000

AHDL

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

CMOS PLD$B


SOPCComplexLogic

System Logic


84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383

First PLD

TTL LIBEP1200

EPB1400

7032VMAX 9000

ALTRIPO

FLEX 8000ACCESS EDA

MAX+PLUS IIMAX 7000

AHDL

World’s First FPGA with Embedded RAM 100K Gates, 0.4 & 0.3 µm >10M Transistors 50-100 MHz Performance First PCI Integration First IP Partner Program

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

CMOS PLD$B

FLEX 10KIP Library

FLEX 10K

World’s-FirstFPGA with

Embedded RAM

ComplexLogic

SOPCSystem Logic



84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383

First PLD

TTL LIBEP1200

EPB1400

FLEX 10KAFLEX10KEMAX 7000A

ALTRIPO

MAX+PLUS IIMAX 7000

AHDL

Extended FLEX 10K Family 250K Gates, 3.3-V & 2.5-V Cores Dual-Port RAM First FPGA with PLLs

MAX 7000A: World’s Fastest 3.3-V CPLDs >13,000 Customers Using Products

FLEX 10KIP Library

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

7032VMAX 9000

FLEX 8000ACCESS EDA

CMOS PLD$B

ComplexLogic

SOPCSystem Logic



84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383

First PLD

TTL LIBEP1200

EPB1400

FLEX 10KIP Library


APEXALTRIPO

MAX+PLUS IIMAX 7000

AHDL

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

7032VMAX 9000

FLEX 8000ACCESS EDA

APEX™: First FPGA with High Speed I/O 1.5M Gates, ~100M Transistors First Embedded CAMs

Fully Integrated EDA Flow in the Quartus® Development Tools

CMOS PLD$B

ComplexLogic

SOPCSystem Logic



84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383

First PLD

TTL LIBEP1200

EPB1400

FLEX 10KIP Library


APEX MercuryARMNios

ALTRIPO

MAX+PLUS IIMAX 7000

AHDL

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

7032VMAX 9000

FLEX 8000ACCESS EDA

APEX 20KC First All-Layer Copper FPGAs First Embedded FPGAs

Mercury™: Multi GHz SERDES Excalibur™: ARM® Processor

World’s First Soft-Core Microcontroller: Nios®

>14,000 Customers Using Products Market Downturn

CMOS PLD$B

ComplexLogic

SOPCSystem Logic



84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383

First PLD

TTL LIBEP1200

EPB1400

FLEX 10KIP Library


StratixTransceivers

Cyclone

ALTRIPO

MercuryARMNios

MAX+PLUS IIMAX 7000

AHDL

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

CMOS PLD$B

7032VMAX 9000

FLEX 8000ACCESS EDA

Completely New 0.13-µm World-Class Products Stratix™ – High-Density Performance Leader Stratix GX – 10G Embedded Transceivers Cyclone™ – World’s Lowest-Cost FPGA Family

Communications& Wireless

Storage &Computer Consumer Industrial

APEX

~$5 Billion MOS PLD Marketin 5 Years

PLD Market Growth – 2003-2007PLD Market Growth – 2003-2007

84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 00 02 05 0783 99 01 03 04 06

7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1.0

Quadratic Curve FitY = 11.3X2-34X-4.39

15

Copyright © 2003 Altera Corporation

CMOS PLD$B

16


HighlightsHighlights Founded in 1983 $711 Million in

2002 Sales 1,958 Employees 14,000+ Worldwide

Customers ALTR (Nasdaq)


PLD Growth OpportunityPLD Growth Opportunity

Jordan Plofsky

Sr. Vice President

Jordan Plofsky

Sr. Vice President

18


Why PLDs Are a Good Business to Be inWhy PLDs Are a Good Business to Be in Where Semiconductor Technology Will Take Us Development Costs Trends: ASSPs & ASICs Impact of This Trend

19


19791980

1981

1982 19831984

1985

19861987

19881989

1990

19911992 1995

1993 19941996

1997

19981999

2000

2001

Traditional 68% Slope

Post RecessionaryPrice Strengthening

Excess CapacityPrice Erosion

Trade Agreement

Strong DemandWeak Supply

Excess CapacityPrice Erosion

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,0000.01

0.1

1

10

100

Pri

ce p

er B

it (

Mil

lic

ents

)

Cumulative Volume (Bit x 1012)

Learning Curve Drives Moore’s LawLearning Curve Drives Moore’s Law

20


Multiple Resolution Enhancement Techniques Optical Proximity

Correction Scattering Bars Attenuated Phase Shift Double-Exposure

Dipole Strong Phase Shift

Low K Dielectrics

“In the Box” Advances Will Carry Us through 65 Nanometers“In the Box” Advances Will Carry Us through 65 Nanometers

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

1980

3.0µ2.0µ

1.0µ.6µ

.35µ

.25µ .18µ.130µ

90nm65nm

Sili

con

Fea

ture

s (µ

m)

1985

1987

1992

1996 2000

2002

2004

20071998

Silicon Feature Size

Lithography Wavelength

436nm 365nm

248nm193nm 157nm

21


Digital ASSP Business ModelDigital ASSP Business Model

R&D Spending $30MR&D as % of Revenue

RevenueMarket Share

Resulting Market Size

22


Development Cost SimulationDevelopment Cost Simulation No Special Design Complexity

MXS, CAM, PLLs, Exotic I/O Does Not Include Costs for

Architecture Planning Methodology

DB Management Version Control

New Tools Learning Program Management Verification/Integration for

Complex IP IP Acquisition

Increased Skilled Engineers * Normalized to Approx 8 mm x 8 mm Die Size 60% Routing Utilization, Artisan Library

TechnologyTechnology Average Gate Count*Average Gate Count*

.35µ 500K

.25µ 1.5M

.18µ 2.5M

.15µ 4.0M

.13µ 6.5M

.09µ 10M

23


Development Costsper Engineering Man Year (Fully Loaded)

Development Costsper Engineering Man Year (Fully Loaded)

1997.35µ

2001.13µ

2002.13µ

2003.09µ

2005.065µ

1999.18µ

1998.25µ

2000.15µ

$150K $160K $170K $180K $190K $200K $225K

Signal Integrity

3D Extraction

Power Drop

Labor – Increased Skill Set

Compute Power

Increased File Size Storage

Test Coverage

IP Integration/Reuse

24


0.35 µ

0.25 µ

0.18 µ

0.15 µ

0.13 µ

0.09 µ

Technology

0.35 µ

0.25 µ

0.18 µ

0.15 µ

0.13 µ

0.09 µ

Technology

RTL Gates Qtr./Person

Verification Qtr./Person

Synthesis + P&RQtr./Person

EngineeringMan Years

30K

36K

50K

75K

110K

150K

15K

18K

25K

38K

55K

75K

125K

300K

500K

750K

1.0M

1.25M

14

30

38

41

46

52

Engineering Costs ($Ms) Masks & Wafers ($)

2

5

6.4

7.3

8.8

10.4

80K

160K

400K

600K

900K

1.3M

Rising Cost of DevelopmentRising Cost of Development

25


ASSP Development Cost at 90nmASSP Development Cost at 90nmFunction Man

Years$K/Year Cost $M

Architecture 3 250 .75

Logic Design 50 200 10.0

I/O Design 6 225 1.35

Product Engineering 20 175 3.5

Test Engineering 12 175 2.1

Software 40 200 8.0

Apps 5 200 1.0

Masks 2 Sets 2.4

Wafers 3 Lots .30

Boards .50

Total Millions 29.9

* FSA, IBS Development Cost Projection

26


What VC’s Are SayingWhat VC’s Are Saying

Raza Foundries $50M in Funding Spectacular Team Needs to Generate $500M over 4 Years

Tallwood $25M at .13m $40M at .09m

27



R&D Spending $30MR&D as % of Revenue 20%

Revenue $150M

28



Revenue $150MMarket Share 10%

Resulting Market Size $1.5B


29


Sizing It UpSizing It Up


Revenue $150MMarket Share 10%

Resulting Market Size $1.5B

The Market Must be Really Big --or You Have to Own It!

ASP ($)ASP ($) UnitsUnits(M)(M)

10 150

20 75

50 30

100 15

500 3

1,000 1.5

30


90nm, 300mm90nm, 300mm

8-inch, 200mm Wafer0.25 µm

12-inch, 300mm Wafer90 nm

7.5x 200x

Process 0.35 0.25 0.18 0.13 0.09Wafer Diameter 150 mm 200 mm 200 mm 200 mm 300 mm

Die Size 20.8 x 20.8 14.8 x 14.8 10.7 x 10.7 8.7 x 8.7 5.9 x 5.9

NDPW @ .2 DD 9 68 175 450 1820

One Wafer Boat (25) 225 1,700 4,375 11,250 45,500

Die Size Normalized to 4M Gates, 4 Mbits Memory

31


Costs to Amortize over Unit VolumeCosts to Amortize over Unit Volume

$30M Development Cost – 15% Hurdle, 5 Yr Return, $7500 300mm Wafer Cost

4M Gate, 4Mb Design 5.7mm x 5.7mm Die

$455.99

$154.74

$49.30$15.22 $8.62 $5.62

$0.00

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

$250.00

$300.00

$350.00

$400.00

$450.00

$500.00

100K 300K 1M 3M 10M 30M

Unit Volumes

To

tal C

os

t/D

ie

Fully Amortized Die Cost

32


Communications$30.6B

Consumer$24.1B

Computer

Storage

Peripherals

$ 92.9B IndustrialAutomotiveMil/Aero

$26B

Let’s Look at the Semi Content in End MarketsLet’s Look at the Semi Content in End Markets

2003 Projected Total: $173.6 B

Source: Gartner, SIA, Semico, IDC, Altera Estimates

33


Memory$37.2B

Processors$46.5B

Analog

Discrete

Opto

$ 52.2 B

Logic$37.7B

Semis by FunctionSemis by Function

2003 Projected Total: $173.6 B

Logic Is21.8%

of Total

Logic Is21.8%

of Total

Source: Gartner, SIA, Semico, IDC, Altera Estimates

34


CommunicationsCommunications K UnitsK Units Semi Content Semi Content ($ per Unit)($ per Unit)

Total Semi ContentTotal Semi Content($ Millions)($ Millions)

Digital Cellular 400,500 41 16,423

Mobile Infrastructure 674 3,700 2,496

10/100 Fixed 102,000 14 1428

DSL CPE 22,800 48 1100

Routers - Enterprise 2,400 385 940

10/100 Modular 20,000 41 813

1 Gig Ethernet 6,000 132 792

Digital Cordless 45,900 17 779

OC192 Ports 40 16,036 641

Cable Modem CPE 10,900 40 435

OC12 Ports 60 5.566 333

OC48 Ports 80 3,357 268

Routers – Service Provider 16 15,963 262

802.11b 10,500 24 248

OC3 Ports 60 2,272 136

Cable Modem Headend 11 1,119 12

Total Billions 27.1

Communications - $30.6 BillionCommunications - $30.6 Billion

35


ConsumerConsumer K UnitsK Units Semi Content Semi Content

($ per Unit)($ per Unit)

Total Semi ContentTotal Semi Content($ Ms)($ Ms)

Video Game Devices 50,613 105 5,314

Color Televisions 136,833 29 3,968

DVDs 46,800 49 2,293

Digital Set Top Boxes

38,707 58 2,245

Digital Still Cameras 27,426 81 2,221

VCRs 50,170

26 1,304

CD Players 106,491 12 1,277

Digital Camcorders 7,900 141 1,113

Digital Televisions 2,534 183 463

Mini-Disk Players 16,400 17 278

Total Billions 20.5

Consumer - $24.1 BillionConsumer - $24.1 Billion

36


IndustrialIndustrialAutomotiveAutomotive

MilitaryMilitary

K UnitsK Units Semi Content Semi Content ($ per Unit)($ per Unit)

Total Semi Content Total Semi Content ($ Millions)($ Millions)

Engine Control Units 55,398 49 2,714

Security/Energy Management

26,000 80 2,080

Medical Equipment 23,100 72 1,633

Airbags 80,460 17 1,367

Antilock Braking System 41,233 28 1,154

GPS Navigation Systems 7,990 135 1,078

Auto Stereo 66,162 13 860

Total Billions 10,886

Industrial, Automotive, Military/Aero - $26.1 BillionIndustrial, Automotive, Military/Aero - $26.1 Billion

37


Computer, Storage, Peripherals $92.9 BillionComputer, Storage, Peripherals $92.9 Billion

ConsumerConsumer K UnitsK Units Semi Content $ per Semi Content $ per UnitUnit

Total Semi Content Total Semi Content $ Millions$ Millions

Desktop PCs 114,197 279 31,860

Notebook PCs 32,012 328 10,499

Rigid Disk Drives 199,719 22 4,393

Graphic Cards 68,630 39 2,676

Midrange Computers 609 3,757 2,288

Work Stations 1,456 893 1,300

Entry-Level Servers 4,196 300 1,258

Handheld Computers 14,023 36 504

Tape Storage 2,372 50 118

Total Billions 54.8

38


SummarySummary

Market SegmentMarket Segment Total Market ($B)Total Market ($B) $B$B $B$B

Communications 30.6 18.9 11.7

Consumer 24.1 16.0 8.1

Industrial, Automotive, Military/Aerospace

26.1 6.4 19.7

Computer, Storage 92.9 51.7 41.2

Total 173.6 93.0 80.7

39


Mobile BTS

Diverging Development Costs & Revenues in Mobile BTS EquipmentDiverging Development Costs & Revenues in Mobile BTS Equipment

ASIC/ASSP Logic

Development CostsOutpace End-Market Growth

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

No

rmal

ized

Gro

wth

Compared Growth Rates 1997 Index = 1.00

40


1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00


ASIC/ASSP Logic

Networking

Diverging Development Costs & Revenues in NetworkingDiverging Development Costs & Revenues in Networking

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

No

rmal

ized

Gro

wth


41


Diverging Development Costs & Revenues in Digital ConsumerDiverging Development Costs & Revenues in Digital Consumer

Next-Generation Digital Consumer

ASIC/ASSP Logic

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

No

rmal

ized

Gro

wth



42


Diverging Development Costs & Revenues in IndustrialDiverging Development Costs & Revenues in Industrial

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

No

rmal

ized

Gro

wth

Rat

e

ASIC/ASSP Logic

Industrial



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