Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
Robert Blake
Vice President, Product Planning
Robert Blake
Vice President, Product Planning
History of Programmable LogicHistory of Programmable Logic
2
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
Altera Founded in 1983Altera Founded in 1983
“The probabilities are high that someone will produce an electrically alterable logic array” predicted Bob Hartmann, Paul Newhagen and Michael Magranet in the closing chapters of their 1982 book on the gate array industry
They recognized limitations of ASICs and the value of PROGRAMABILITY
World’s First PLD EP300: 320 Gates, 3-µm CMOS
10-MHz Performance, 20 I/O PinsDesktop Programming“Fixing Design Errors for Free”
First Fabless Company
History of PLDs - 1984History of PLDs - 1984
84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383
CMOS PLD$B
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
First PLD
History of PLDs: 1985 - 1987History of PLDs: 1985 - 1987
84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383
TTL Libraries (74XX) for PLD EP1200 First High-Density PLD EPB1400 First Embedded PLD
First PLD
TTL LIBEP1200
EPB1400
CMOS PLD$B
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Simple Control Logic
History of PLDs: 1988History of PLDs: 1988
84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383
First PLD
Altera IPO March 30, 1988 ALTR Offers 4 Million Shares MAX+PLUS® Software: First
Integrated EDA for PLDs
ALTRIPO
TTL LIBEP1200
EPB1400
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
CMOS PLD$B
Simple Control Logic
History of PLDs: 1989History of PLDs: 1989
84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383
First PLD
Altera Delivers Hardware Description Language (AHDL)
>50% Reduction in Design Entry Time >5,000 Customers
TTL LIBEP1200
EPB1400
ALTRIPO
AHDL
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
CMOS PLD$B
Complex Logic
Simple Control Logic
History of PLDs: 1990-1991History of PLDs: 1990-1991
84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383
First PLD
TTL LIBEP1200
EPB1400
MAX+PLUS IIMAX 7000
ALTRIPO
Introduction of MAX® 7000 – Now World’s Most Popular PLD Ever!
MAX+PLUS® II: First Windows-Based Integrated Tools
AHDL
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
CMOS PLD$B
ComplexLogic
Simple Control Logic
History of PLDs: 1992History of PLDs: 1992
84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383
First PLD
TTL LIBEP1200
EPB1400
FLEX 8000ACCESS EDA
ALTRIPO
MAX+PLUS IIMAX 7000
AHDL
FLEX® 8000 High-Density/Performance SRAM FPGA >1M Transistors Bridging & System Logic Integration
ACCESSSM Program Industry Alliance with EDA
Manufacturers Adopted ASIC Design Methodology
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
CMOS PLD$B
ComplexLogic
System Logic
Simple Control Logic
History of PLDs: 1993-1994History of PLDs: 1993-1994
84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383
First PLD
World’s First Low-Power 3.3-V CPLD MAX 9000 High-Density CPLD
12,000 Gates, 150-MHz Performance >9,000 Customers Using Products
TTL LIBEP1200
EPB1400
7032VMAX 9000
ALTRIPO
FLEX 8000ACCESS EDA
MAX+PLUS IIMAX 7000
AHDL
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
CMOS PLD$B
Simple Control Logic
SOPCComplexLogic
System Logic
History of PLDs: 1995History of PLDs: 1995
84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383
First PLD
TTL LIBEP1200
EPB1400
7032VMAX 9000
ALTRIPO
FLEX 8000ACCESS EDA
MAX+PLUS IIMAX 7000
AHDL
World’s First FPGA with Embedded RAM 100K Gates, 0.4 & 0.3 µm >10M Transistors 50-100 MHz Performance First PCI Integration First IP Partner Program
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
CMOS PLD$B
FLEX 10KIP Library
FLEX 10K
World’s-FirstFPGA with
Embedded RAM
ComplexLogic
SOPCSystem Logic
Simple Control Logic
History of PLDs: 1996-1998History of PLDs: 1996-1998
84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383
First PLD
TTL LIBEP1200
EPB1400
FLEX 10KAFLEX10KEMAX 7000A
ALTRIPO
MAX+PLUS IIMAX 7000
AHDL
Extended FLEX 10K Family 250K Gates, 3.3-V & 2.5-V Cores Dual-Port RAM First FPGA with PLLs
MAX 7000A: World’s Fastest 3.3-V CPLDs >13,000 Customers Using Products
FLEX 10KIP Library
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
7032VMAX 9000
FLEX 8000ACCESS EDA
CMOS PLD$B
ComplexLogic
SOPCSystem Logic
Simple Control Logic
History of PLDs: 1999History of PLDs: 1999
84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383
First PLD
TTL LIBEP1200
EPB1400
FLEX 10KIP Library
FLEX 10KAFLEX10KEMAX 7000A
APEXALTRIPO
MAX+PLUS IIMAX 7000
AHDL
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
7032VMAX 9000
FLEX 8000ACCESS EDA
APEX™: First FPGA with High Speed I/O 1.5M Gates, ~100M Transistors First Embedded CAMs
Fully Integrated EDA Flow in the Quartus® Development Tools
CMOS PLD$B
ComplexLogic
SOPCSystem Logic
Simple Control Logic
History of PLDs: 2000-2001History of PLDs: 2000-2001
84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383
First PLD
TTL LIBEP1200
EPB1400
FLEX 10KIP Library
FLEX 10KAFLEX10KEMAX 7000A
APEX MercuryARMNios
ALTRIPO
MAX+PLUS IIMAX 7000
AHDL
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
7032VMAX 9000
FLEX 8000ACCESS EDA
APEX 20KC First All-Layer Copper FPGAs First Embedded FPGAs
Mercury™: Multi GHz SERDES Excalibur™: ARM® Processor
World’s First Soft-Core Microcontroller: Nios®
>14,000 Customers Using Products Market Downturn
CMOS PLD$B
ComplexLogic
SOPCSystem Logic
Simple Control Logic
History of PLDs: 2002-2003History of PLDs: 2002-2003
84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 0383
First PLD
TTL LIBEP1200
EPB1400
FLEX 10KIP Library
FLEX 10KAFLEX10KEMAX 7000A
StratixTransceivers
Cyclone
ALTRIPO
MercuryARMNios
MAX+PLUS IIMAX 7000
AHDL
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
CMOS PLD$B
7032VMAX 9000
FLEX 8000ACCESS EDA
Completely New 0.13-µm World-Class Products Stratix™ – High-Density Performance Leader Stratix GX – 10G Embedded Transceivers Cyclone™ – World’s Lowest-Cost FPGA Family
Communications& Wireless
Storage &Computer Consumer Industrial
APEX
~$5 Billion MOS PLD Marketin 5 Years
PLD Market Growth – 2003-2007PLD Market Growth – 2003-2007
84 85 87 88 9386 89 90 91 92 94 95 96 97 98 00 02 05 0783 99 01 03 04 06
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
Quadratic Curve FitY = 11.3X2-34X-4.39
15
Copyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
CMOS PLD$B
16
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
HighlightsHighlights Founded in 1983 $711 Million in
2002 Sales 1,958 Employees 14,000+ Worldwide
Customers ALTR (Nasdaq)
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
PLD Growth OpportunityPLD Growth Opportunity
Jordan Plofsky
Sr. Vice President
Jordan Plofsky
Sr. Vice President
18
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
Why PLDs Are a Good Business to Be inWhy PLDs Are a Good Business to Be in Where Semiconductor Technology Will Take Us Development Costs Trends: ASSPs & ASICs Impact of This Trend
19
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
19791980
1981
1982 19831984
1985
19861987
19881989
1990
19911992 1995
1993 19941996
1997
19981999
2000
2001
Traditional 68% Slope
Post RecessionaryPrice Strengthening
Excess CapacityPrice Erosion
Trade Agreement
Strong DemandWeak Supply
Excess CapacityPrice Erosion
1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,0000.01
0.1
1
10
100
Pri
ce p
er B
it (
Mil
lic
ents
)
Cumulative Volume (Bit x 1012)
Learning Curve Drives Moore’s LawLearning Curve Drives Moore’s Law
20
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
Multiple Resolution Enhancement Techniques Optical Proximity
Correction Scattering Bars Attenuated Phase Shift Double-Exposure
Dipole Strong Phase Shift
Low K Dielectrics
“In the Box” Advances Will Carry Us through 65 Nanometers“In the Box” Advances Will Carry Us through 65 Nanometers
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
1980
3.0µ2.0µ
1.0µ.6µ
.35µ
.25µ .18µ.130µ
90nm65nm
Sili
con
Fea
ture
s (µ
m)
1985
1987
1992
1996 2000
2002
2004
20071998
Silicon Feature Size
Lithography Wavelength
436nm 365nm
248nm193nm 157nm
21
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
Digital ASSP Business ModelDigital ASSP Business Model
R&D Spending $30MR&D as % of Revenue
RevenueMarket Share
Resulting Market Size
22
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
Development Cost SimulationDevelopment Cost Simulation No Special Design Complexity
MXS, CAM, PLLs, Exotic I/O Does Not Include Costs for
Architecture Planning Methodology
DB Management Version Control
New Tools Learning Program Management Verification/Integration for
Complex IP IP Acquisition
Increased Skilled Engineers * Normalized to Approx 8 mm x 8 mm Die Size 60% Routing Utilization, Artisan Library
TechnologyTechnology Average Gate Count*Average Gate Count*
.35µ 500K
.25µ 1.5M
.18µ 2.5M
.15µ 4.0M
.13µ 6.5M
.09µ 10M
23
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
Development Costsper Engineering Man Year (Fully Loaded)
Development Costsper Engineering Man Year (Fully Loaded)
1997.35µ
2001.13µ
2002.13µ
2003.09µ
2005.065µ
1999.18µ
1998.25µ
2000.15µ
$150K $160K $170K $180K $190K $200K $225K
Signal Integrity
3D Extraction
Power Drop
Labor – Increased Skill Set
Compute Power
Increased File Size Storage
Test Coverage
IP Integration/Reuse
24
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
0.35 µ
0.25 µ
0.18 µ
0.15 µ
0.13 µ
0.09 µ
Technology
0.35 µ
0.25 µ
0.18 µ
0.15 µ
0.13 µ
0.09 µ
Technology
RTL Gates Qtr./Person
Verification Qtr./Person
Synthesis + P&RQtr./Person
EngineeringMan Years
30K
36K
50K
75K
110K
150K
15K
18K
25K
38K
55K
75K
125K
300K
500K
750K
1.0M
1.25M
14
30
38
41
46
52
Engineering Costs ($Ms) Masks & Wafers ($)
2
5
6.4
7.3
8.8
10.4
80K
160K
400K
600K
900K
1.3M
Rising Cost of DevelopmentRising Cost of Development
25
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
ASSP Development Cost at 90nmASSP Development Cost at 90nmFunction Man
Years$K/Year Cost $M
Architecture 3 250 .75
Logic Design 50 200 10.0
I/O Design 6 225 1.35
Product Engineering 20 175 3.5
Test Engineering 12 175 2.1
Software 40 200 8.0
Apps 5 200 1.0
Masks 2 Sets 2.4
Wafers 3 Lots .30
Boards .50
Total Millions 29.9
* FSA, IBS Development Cost Projection
26
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
What VC’s Are SayingWhat VC’s Are Saying
Raza Foundries $50M in Funding Spectacular Team Needs to Generate $500M over 4 Years
Tallwood $25M at .13m $40M at .09m
27
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
Digital ASSP Business ModelDigital ASSP Business Model
R&D Spending $30MR&D as % of Revenue 20%
Revenue $150M
28
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
R&D Spending $30MR&D as % of Revenue 20%
Revenue $150MMarket Share 10%
Resulting Market Size $1.5B
Digital ASSP Business ModelDigital ASSP Business Model
29
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
Sizing It UpSizing It Up
R&D Spending $30MR&D as % of Revenue 20%
Revenue $150MMarket Share 10%
Resulting Market Size $1.5B
The Market Must be Really Big --or You Have to Own It!
ASP ($)ASP ($) UnitsUnits(M)(M)
10 150
20 75
50 30
100 15
500 3
1,000 1.5
30
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
90nm, 300mm90nm, 300mm
8-inch, 200mm Wafer0.25 µm
12-inch, 300mm Wafer90 nm
7.5x 200x
Process 0.35 0.25 0.18 0.13 0.09Wafer Diameter 150 mm 200 mm 200 mm 200 mm 300 mm
Die Size 20.8 x 20.8 14.8 x 14.8 10.7 x 10.7 8.7 x 8.7 5.9 x 5.9
NDPW @ .2 DD 9 68 175 450 1820
One Wafer Boat (25) 225 1,700 4,375 11,250 45,500
Die Size Normalized to 4M Gates, 4 Mbits Memory
31
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
Costs to Amortize over Unit VolumeCosts to Amortize over Unit Volume
$30M Development Cost – 15% Hurdle, 5 Yr Return, $7500 300mm Wafer Cost
4M Gate, 4Mb Design 5.7mm x 5.7mm Die
$455.99
$154.74
$49.30$15.22 $8.62 $5.62
$0.00
$50.00
$100.00
$150.00
$200.00
$250.00
$300.00
$350.00
$400.00
$450.00
$500.00
100K 300K 1M 3M 10M 30M
Unit Volumes
To
tal C
os
t/D
ie
Fully Amortized Die Cost
32
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
Communications$30.6B
Consumer$24.1B
Computer
Storage
Peripherals
$ 92.9B IndustrialAutomotiveMil/Aero
$26B
Let’s Look at the Semi Content in End MarketsLet’s Look at the Semi Content in End Markets
2003 Projected Total: $173.6 B
Source: Gartner, SIA, Semico, IDC, Altera Estimates
33
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
Memory$37.2B
Processors$46.5B
Analog
Discrete
Opto
$ 52.2 B
Logic$37.7B
Semis by FunctionSemis by Function
2003 Projected Total: $173.6 B
Logic Is21.8%
of Total
Logic Is21.8%
of Total
Source: Gartner, SIA, Semico, IDC, Altera Estimates
34
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
CommunicationsCommunications K UnitsK Units Semi Content Semi Content ($ per Unit)($ per Unit)
Total Semi ContentTotal Semi Content($ Millions)($ Millions)
Digital Cellular 400,500 41 16,423
Mobile Infrastructure 674 3,700 2,496
10/100 Fixed 102,000 14 1428
DSL CPE 22,800 48 1100
Routers - Enterprise 2,400 385 940
10/100 Modular 20,000 41 813
1 Gig Ethernet 6,000 132 792
Digital Cordless 45,900 17 779
OC192 Ports 40 16,036 641
Cable Modem CPE 10,900 40 435
OC12 Ports 60 5.566 333
OC48 Ports 80 3,357 268
Routers – Service Provider 16 15,963 262
802.11b 10,500 24 248
OC3 Ports 60 2,272 136
Cable Modem Headend 11 1,119 12
Total Billions 27.1
Communications - $30.6 BillionCommunications - $30.6 Billion
35
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
ConsumerConsumer K UnitsK Units Semi Content Semi Content
($ per Unit)($ per Unit)
Total Semi ContentTotal Semi Content($ Ms)($ Ms)
Video Game Devices 50,613 105 5,314
Color Televisions 136,833 29 3,968
DVDs 46,800 49 2,293
Digital Set Top Boxes
38,707 58 2,245
Digital Still Cameras 27,426 81 2,221
VCRs 50,170
26 1,304
CD Players 106,491 12 1,277
Digital Camcorders 7,900 141 1,113
Digital Televisions 2,534 183 463
Mini-Disk Players 16,400 17 278
Total Billions 20.5
Consumer - $24.1 BillionConsumer - $24.1 Billion
36
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
IndustrialIndustrialAutomotiveAutomotive
MilitaryMilitary
K UnitsK Units Semi Content Semi Content ($ per Unit)($ per Unit)
Total Semi Content Total Semi Content ($ Millions)($ Millions)
Engine Control Units 55,398 49 2,714
Security/Energy Management
26,000 80 2,080
Medical Equipment 23,100 72 1,633
Airbags 80,460 17 1,367
Antilock Braking System 41,233 28 1,154
GPS Navigation Systems 7,990 135 1,078
Auto Stereo 66,162 13 860
Total Billions 10,886
Industrial, Automotive, Military/Aero - $26.1 BillionIndustrial, Automotive, Military/Aero - $26.1 Billion
37
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
Computer, Storage, Peripherals $92.9 BillionComputer, Storage, Peripherals $92.9 Billion
ConsumerConsumer K UnitsK Units Semi Content $ per Semi Content $ per UnitUnit
Total Semi Content Total Semi Content $ Millions$ Millions
Desktop PCs 114,197 279 31,860
Notebook PCs 32,012 328 10,499
Rigid Disk Drives 199,719 22 4,393
Graphic Cards 68,630 39 2,676
Midrange Computers 609 3,757 2,288
Work Stations 1,456 893 1,300
Entry-Level Servers 4,196 300 1,258
Handheld Computers 14,023 36 504
Tape Storage 2,372 50 118
Total Billions 54.8
38
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
SummarySummary
Market SegmentMarket Segment Total Market ($B)Total Market ($B) $B$B $B$B
Communications 30.6 18.9 11.7
Consumer 24.1 16.0 8.1
Industrial, Automotive, Military/Aerospace
26.1 6.4 19.7
Computer, Storage 92.9 51.7 41.2
Total 173.6 93.0 80.7
39
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
Mobile BTS
Diverging Development Costs & Revenues in Mobile BTS EquipmentDiverging Development Costs & Revenues in Mobile BTS Equipment
ASIC/ASSP Logic
Development CostsOutpace End-Market Growth
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
No
rmal
ized
Gro
wth
Compared Growth Rates 1997 Index = 1.00
40
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
Development CostsOutpace End-Market Growth
ASIC/ASSP Logic
Networking
Diverging Development Costs & Revenues in NetworkingDiverging Development Costs & Revenues in Networking
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
No
rmal
ized
Gro
wth
Compared Growth Rates 1997 Index = 1.00
41
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
Diverging Development Costs & Revenues in Digital ConsumerDiverging Development Costs & Revenues in Digital Consumer
Next-Generation Digital Consumer
ASIC/ASSP Logic
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
No
rmal
ized
Gro
wth
Compared Growth Rates 1997 Index = 1.00
Development CostsOutpace End-Market Growth
42
Copyright © 2003 Altera CorporationCopyright © 2003 Altera Corporation
Diverging Development Costs & Revenues in IndustrialDiverging Development Costs & Revenues in Industrial
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
No
rmal
ized
Gro
wth
Rat
e
ASIC/ASSP Logic
Industrial
Compared Growth Rates 1997 Index = 1.00
Development CostsOutpace End-Market Growth